Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 4/12/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday everyone.

Dave Cameron: Most teams have played seven games at this point, so let’s speculate wildly about what those seven games mean, and overreact emotionally to every outcome.

Dave Cameron: As is April tradition.

The Decadent Moose: As a Cardinals’ fan, what is my first priority: 1] Getting a refund from MLB.TV, 2] starting scurrilous rumors about players in the bullpen, or 3] simply buying http://www.FireMikeMatheny.com/ ?

Dave Cameron: No better place to start than this.

Dave Cameron: The Cardinals first week was pretty lousy, but it’s hard to imagine Cecil/Oh/Siegrist are going to combine for a 98.50 ERA or whatever they have right now.

Dave Cameron: They do need to stop playing Matt Adams in LF, though.

biased white sox fan: when do you think we’ll see the first “major” trade? before/after July 1st?

Dave Cameron: Probably depends on how quickly Jose Quintana bounces back from his disaster Opening Day start. If he can get back on track quickly, I bet Chicago doesn’t wait to July to move him. Especially if they’re afraid Texas might fall out and trade Darvish, which would make Quintana a second fiddle.

J: Batter hits a weak grounder the other way to beat the shift. Do you care about the hit probability on it or decide to give him extra credit for something he doesn’t always do?

Dave Cameron: The shift makes everything challenging. In reality, a ball hit to an empty third base area against the shift should have a very high hit probability, no matter how hard it’s hit.

The Average Sports Fan: The Reds are obviously not really any good. But their bullpen usage has taken something that was awful, and made it not bad. Are you impressed?

Dave Cameron: Lorenzen and Iglesias are both very good relievers. Having them pitching multiple innings helps a lot. I don’t know that they can lean on them to this extent all year long, though.

Joe Blow: Mitch Haniger is a beast. Disprove.

Dave Cameron: It’s still early, but he’s showing why some of us were optimistic about him.

D: Do you have any clue why the projection systems are so high on Anthony Toles? It’s fascinating, on sabersim on Saturday, he was projected as the best offensive player in baseball(in coors but still better than all the other dodgers and Rockies)

Dave Cameron: That sounds like a bug.

Yordano: Whats higher? Michael Nelson Trout’s OBP or the Reds winning %?

Dave Cameron: Well the Reds are off to a 6-2 start, and they’re not a completely awful team like SD, so probably the Reds OBP.

YKnotDisco?!: How come the player page doesn’t include the fan projections anymore?

Dave Cameron: We switched over to defaulting to rest-of-season projections today. You can still see the preseason projections by clicking the projections button.

Jason: What is Byron Buxtons ceiling at this point? What is his floor?And what do you see him settling into 3/4 years from now?

Dave Cameron: His ceiling hasn’t changed. He’s still a high risk, high reward guy.

Dave Cameron: Keep in mind that Jackie Bradley Jr has a not-totally-different skillset and Boston was pretty close to giving up on him a few years ago.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Not sure who to ask, but MLB.TV rolled out the “Follow Your Team” feature to let fans of out-of-market teams watch their team’s feed when they play in-market teams. There’s a cruel and unusual restriction in that you can only use the web player on computers–do you know what part of the TV deals or other contracts is responsible for that?

Dave Cameron: Cable companies don’t want you cutting the cord. They don’t see watching it on your computer as a threat to the mass market audience like just watching it through a streaming box on TV.

Yordano: Odds two players reach the 9 WAR mark?

Dave Cameron: I’d say 25%. I wouldn’t be shocked if Kershaw or Thor got there this year.

Jack: What do you think of the Ranger’s slow start?

Dave Cameron: It’s mostly Sam Dyson’s slow start.

Dave Cameron: But he’s clearly not right.

Eric: Is there anything in the CBA that would prevent a team from signing Shohei Otani to the restricted IFA bonus pool, and tear up the contract 6 months later with a new $150+ MM deal?

Dave Cameron: Yes. The CBA explicitly says you can’t enter into an agreement to circumvent the international signing bonus rules.

Dave Cameron: But no one really knows how long is long enough to make it clear that it wasn’t a pre-existing agreement. I wrote about that here. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlbs-other-shohei-otani-problem/

Noah: Is there any way to fight the TTO trend?

Dave Cameron: I think the significant increases in velocity make taming the strikeout issue challenging, so unless they’re going to lower the mound or something, I’m not sure.

Mike: How do the advanced defensive stats work for first basemen? Are they mainly evaluating range, etc, as they would at other positions…or does skill at handling throws in the dirt and preventing errors by other infielders play a substantial role? How substantial?

Dave Cameron: Scoops are measured, yes. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/first-basemen-scoops/

Dave Cameron: But the difference in scooping skill between big league first baseman is pretty small, so the impact it has on UZR/DRS is not that large. It’s mostly range.

Cam’ron: At this point in the season, is there any team that’s surprising enough to change preseason projections?

Dave Cameron: Sure, because the results of 7-8 games can change a team’s expected W-L record by a handful of wins. The Blue Jays have dropped from 86 expected wins to 83 expected wins, for instance. They still have a shot at contending, but if they don’t get out of this funk soon, they’ll have to at least consider whether they need to start putting plans in place in case they have to sell.

Noah: Which current AL division leader (BAL/TB, DET, LAA) is most likely to make the playoffs?

Dave Cameron: Detroit

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Mallex Smith is an absolute joy to watch. With his offensive profile, will he ever be more than a fourth outfielder?

Dave Cameron: The upside is Michael Bourn, who was a very good player for a while.

Erik: The Twins are doing well even with Buxton looking terrible. They were also an 83-win team just two years ago. Is it possible the projections were underrating them a bit, and they belong near the back of the very large AL wild card pack, rather than down near the White Sox?

Dave Cameron: Anything is possible, but there’s no real reason to think the projections were underrating them based on going 5-2 in seven games. They have a 102 wRC+, so it’s not like their offense has gone bananas in week one. The pitching is still bad.

Ryan: Dave, You are a douche. Thanks!

Dave Cameron: You’re welcome?

Guest: Do you think the Giants stand pat in left/center? I know it’s early but things are looking pretty bad.

Dave Cameron: You have to wonder at what point Angel Pagan and the Giants just decide it’s time for a reunion.

John: You think if the adjustments come earlier in their career, we’re discussing HOF cases for Murphy and Donaldson?

Dave Cameron: Donaldson, definitely. His peak is HOF worthy. He just won’t have enough longevity. Murphy is tougher because we’re on year two of him being a great player.

JTT: Why can’t MLB teams trade draft picks? I understand why teams wouldn’t WANT to, the MLB draft is a major crapshoot and you are theoretically trading “known” assets in prospects/young players for even higher risk lottery tickets, but why are teams specifically forbidden from trading them?

Dave Cameron: The league doesn’t want to give players the ability to dictate where they’ll play and not play, and trading picks opens things up to a guy like Harper or Strasburg or whoever saying “I won’t play for Washington. You should trade the pick because I won’t sign with you.”

Dave Cameron: Without pick trading, the player doesn’t have any hope of signing with another team, so it’s sign or go to school.

Argo: Do you think Haniger’s swing-and-miss tendencies are destined to catch up with him, or are you sensing this could be a genuine breakout? He’s an enigma to me.

Dave Cameron: He’s making contact on 80% of swings this year, was at 78% in his debut last year. His swing-and-miss tendencies have been oversold.

YKnotDisco?!: If Buxton has peak years similar to B.J Upton, would people still view that as a disappointment? Were the expectations higher than that? B.J was pretty damn good early in his career.

Dave Cameron: The early-career Trout comparisons set insane expectations. If he can become an average hitter with elite D, that’s a good player.

Guest: I realize this is probably stupid to focus on, but what was the person who wrote the cubs depth chart smoking when they put Javy as the most likely to DH? I love Baez, but unless the cubs were trying to tank or it’s spring training, I can’t imagine the reasoning behind making the defensive wunderkind (and offensive liability) DH. That’d be nuts, even for Maddon.

Dave Cameron: The DH spot in the NL is a stand in for pinch hitting spots.

Hendrik: Since a high strikeout rate is often mentioned as something that is tough to overcome for hitters… How is this reflected in WAR? Do hitters get penalised more for striking out than making outs in another way or is it just that a hitter gets on base less with fewer balls in play?

Dave Cameron: WAR is a backwards-looking value stat, not a predictor of future performance. In batting WAR, a strikeout is an out, no different than any other out. If we were trying to project a player’s future performance, we’d use a forecasting system, not WAR.

biffyclyro: I know Cubs fan expectations for Schwarber have been ridiculous and you’ve been skeptical, to say the least. Asking as a non-Cubs fanboy, what kind of season/numbers/abilities would you need to see from him before you start to buy in?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably need to see his contact rate improve. The main disagreement between my expectations (left-handed Napoli) and the hype is how much he’ll strike out.

Maddux in a Row: In terms of pure speed, how far above the rest of humans is the average baseball player? Put another way, if I’m a moderately in shape adult and I managed to become a MLB team’s go-to pinch runner and made 100 steal attempts, what would my success rate be?

Dave Cameron: I doubt you could get even one.

Dave Cameron: Unless the catcher airmailed a throw or something.

Dave Cameron: It’s not just pure speed; it’s reaction time, running technique, how to slide.

Sonny: Do players on the MLB 10-Day DL accrue service time while they’re out?

Dave Cameron: Yep. Anyone on the active 25 man roster, including the 10 day DL or 60 day DL, is accruing service time.

YKnotDisco?!: What was the extent of your baseball playing career?

Dave Cameron: I played through high school. I was a C/3B with a good eye and no power. Basically, I was Ryan Hanigan.

Bookie Metts: Hey Dave – in your view, what’s the biggest story so far, 1 week into the season?

Dave Cameron: Probably the Blue Jays slow start.

Dave Cameron: With an old roster, they can’t really afford to just play out the year and see what happens. They’ll have a buy or sell decision this summer. Holding is not an option.

JD: If Jays fall out of it and did not feel JD was going to be an easy sign would be command a huge return?

Dave Cameron: I doubt he’s a mid-season trade. If they end up as sellers, they’ll move the rentals, then figure out how extensive the rebuild will be this winter. If they decide they need a down cycle, then JD could be on the blocks next winter.

TJH: how do i view pitcher batting stat leaders? Total HR, RBI, average, etc.

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=p&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&ty…

PD: Is this what Mitch Haniger is? Or a 90th percentile version?

Dave Cameron: He has a 195 wRC+. This isn’t what anyone is.

Dave Cameron: That said, a power/walks/good D skillset with average-ish contact is a pretty darn good player. I still think he’s probably more like a 110 wRC+ guy, but if the power is more real than we think, it’s not out of the realm that he’s a poor man’s Cespedes.

Jay: Since we’re emotionally overreacting to 7 games – Edwin Encarnacion is doomed, right?

Dave Cameron: Good news is Francisco Lindor stole his power, so the Indians should be fine.

The Ghost of Rico Brogna: I’m interested in writing a fan piece for the website, I have a passion for writing and would like to submit something that I find interesting. Where would I go about doing this and what are the chances that it gets seen?

Dave Cameron: FanGraphs.com/community

Dave Cameron: We regularly publish content from there to the site.

EdgarHoF: how can the Mariners upgrade at 1B?

Dave Cameron: Call the Orioles and see what Pedro Alvarez costs.

JD: If you had to plunk money on either Kiermaier or Billy Ham for higher WAR at years end who you got?

Dave Cameron: Kiermaier.

JR: Is it possible to have a higher BA than OBP, or am I looking at a typo on Padres website for Wil Myers? If it is possible, how so?

Dave Cameron: Sac flies don’t count against your BA, but do count against your OBP. So if you have more sac flies than walks+HBPs, then your OBP can be < BA.

Matt: As someone who doesn’t write about baseball professionally, but as a hobby, the frustration Jeff Sullivan causes is immense. I write down a couple of potential topics, get home fron work/ have a day off, open up the web…. And Jeff has produced 5 articles in one day on all the topics I had in mind. I then spend some time finding something interesting to see Jeff has published a 6th article on this new idea.

Dave Cameron: He’s a machine.

Logan: Concerned about very slow starts for Ender and Swanson?

Dave Cameron: Not really. Neither one is a great hitter, and guys with moderate power who rely on singles and contact will have stretches like this.

Brandon M: Do you think the rangers will be out of it in July?

Dave Cameron: Depends on health. If Beltre is out for an extended period of time, that hurts them a lot. They couldn’t afford to lose anyone else of importance at that point.

Don Von Handburger: Did you have memento disease about Reed and White in your Astros’ 1B column?

Dave Cameron: It was a column about why they might need to replace Gurriel, not about who might replace him.

JamesKrause: assuming the royals have a fire sale at the deadline, do you think they should sell duffy? great contract but pretty useless if you are inevitably gonna suck for next 3-4 years anyway

Dave Cameron: He took less money from them like two months ago to stick around. It’s lousy business to trade a guy who gave you a hometown discount before the extension even starts.

Josh: Neftali Feliz hit 100+ multiple times yesterday. If this velocity sticks around, what type of value can the Brewers get for him?

Dave Cameron: He’s always thrown hard.

Dave Cameron: I do think he’ll be setting up for a contender by the All-Star break though. Jeffress, Thornburg, Smith… the Brewers are clearly in pump-and-dump mode in the bullpen.

Roadhog: Who is the A’s ace by September? Gray, Cotton, Manaea, or Graveman? Any one of them could break out ahead of the pack this season.

Dave Cameron: I don’t know that any of them are aces.

Big Joey: Keon Broxton or Joc Pederson for the next 3 years?

Dave Cameron: Joc.

JR: How much will BOS regret trading Margot?

Dave Cameron: Where would they play him?

Erik: What kind of returns do Quintana and Darvish get if they’re traded this year? Close to the Sale trade, but swap out Moncada for a second Kopech-tier guy instead?

Dave Cameron: Darvish would be a rental, so nothing close to that.

Dave Cameron: Quintana is probably more like the Eaton trade.

kevinthecomic: I haven’t done it yet, but can’t you just plug in your laptop to your TV and watch MLB.TV on your TV that way?

Dave Cameron: Yes, but the average consumer isn’t going to do that.

Jack: How long will Sam Dyson stay the closer?

Dave Cameron: If he pitches the 9th the next time they have a 1-3 run lead, I’ll be stunned.

JVizzle: Thoughts on Greg Holland’s start to the season?

Dave Cameron: Hard not to be impressed. The fastball is back and the slider looks strong.

Travis: Where can I find an article to tell when stats become outcome predictive for the season?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-long-needed-update-on-reliability/

Marshall: Clearly increased velocity has lead to more strikeouts. Over time, should we except hitters to adjust to faster pitch speeds and begin making more contact?

Dave Cameron: Unless there’s a physical adjustment they can make to just swing the bat faster, I don’t think so.

Dave Cameron: It’s just harder to hit 95 than 85.

Logan Davis: Other than “be 22 instead of 26”, what does Mitch Haniger not do? I have a hard time understanding how middle relievers and toolsy A-ballers get ranked ahead of guys like him on prospect lists.

Dave Cameron: Prospect lists are generally focused on upside, and often undervalue proximity to the majors.

Dave Cameron: So a young guy who has projection to become a star, but no current value, will often be ranked ahead of a player who is good-but-not-great right now.

Dave Cameron: In reality, the lower ceiling guy is often more valuable.

mario mendoza: In your HOU 1B article, did you suggest a trade because you are down on AJ Reed, or because you think, as a contender, they need an established stud 1B?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Reed is good enough to start for them either.

Dave Cameron: It doesn’t mean he can’t start for anyone, but not a team trying to win right now.

James: Asdrubal Cabrera a shoe-in for Mets 2018 3B? That $8.5 mil option is a bargain for the hitter he’s been

Dave Cameron: Given Reyes’ performance, maybe should be their 2017 3B.

ChiSox2020: Do you think the White Sox move Abreu to Houston or Washington? Both teams are contenders that lack a plus 1st baseman.

Dave Cameron: Ryan Zimmerman is crushing it so far. They’re not going to replace him unless they absolutely have to.

Dave Cameron: And he’s got like $50M left on his deal.

Monsignor Martinez: Couldn’t the lack of teams willing to spend $400+million limit the actual amount of money Harper would make? If only 1 team can even afford a megadeal that expensive, why offer anything more for 1 player?

Dave Cameron: It’s a false premise. Most teams can afford $400+ million for Harper.

Shin soo-Choo Express: so here in MN, people are coming up with some pretty ridiculous ideas for what to do with Buxton, from “have him bunt every time” to “using the DH on him and make the pitcher hit”. If you were the Gm, what would you do?

Dave Cameron: Giving him a day off is probably the right move, but you just have to be patient.

Tanner: Can you give me a plausible situation where Ryan Braun has a great season and isn’t traded?

Dave Cameron: He has a no-trade clause, right? So if he invokes it, then there you go.

Dave Cameron: Otherwise, no.

GDUBSS: K% for Schwarber: Zips says 30.5% and Steamer says 24.1%. Whats your expectation?

Dave Cameron: Closer to 30%

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Re: Otani, couldn’t the club say to him, sign the max, then we’ll negotiate an extension after a week, but without discussing $ amounts? Or is that still circumventing it?

Dave Cameron: Still circumvention.

what, is she funny or something?: if the jays season continues in the downward spiral would they move marcus stroman? who would fetch a higher price: stroman or quintana?

Dave Cameron: I would imagine Stroman and Sanchez stay.

Moltar: In your Astros 1B article, did you give any thought to Lucas Duda as a potential trade option? He seems expendable to the Mets with them needing to find playing time for Conforto (which could be done by moving Bruce to 1B). I think Duda could be a good medium-term solution for the ‘Stros.

Dave Cameron: Contenders usually don’t trade pieces off their big league roster.

v2micca: Absent some enhancement is it likely we will ever see a 4 year stretch comparable to Bonds 2001 – 2004?

Dave Cameron: No.

JTT: Help me overreact to Miguel Cabreras 15 wRc+ with no extra base hits

Dave Cameron: Petriello noted he’s like 3rd in MLB in exit velo. Seems like bad luck.

Bookie Metts: What kind of package would the Red Sox need to put together for Eric Hosmer?

Dave Cameron: Common sense and reasonability for a poor decision to be named later.

Paul: Would Quintana and his contract really be second fiddle to pending-FA Darvish? That’s surprising.

Dave Cameron: Teams would rather pay less for Darvish and get the more impactful short-term upgrade than pay the higher price to get more long-term value with Quintana.

Dave Cameron: So you’d lose some potential buyers.

Dave Cameron: Quintana would still command more in return overall, but probably less than he would if he’s traded before Darvish is available.

botchatheny: guess who is starting in left field for the cardinals today….

Dave Cameron: Mozeliak should just trade Adams so that Matheny can’t do this.

Craig in CHI: Why didn’t TOR sign Thames?

Dave Cameron: Good question.

Kris Shaw: Hi Dave,
I read your thoughts re: arbitration from a few weeks ago, and also other pieces from Ken Rosenthal et al. I think there is a fairly straightforward market-based alternative to the existing system, one that eschews all rules and precedents. If interested, email me at shawkr@sas.upenn.edu and I can send you a brief description. Or don’t, up to you.
Kris Shaw
PhD Candidate, Economics
University of Pennsylvania

Dave Cameron: Send me a note on Twitter. I’ll be more likely to remember that than to remember your email.

David: Regarding trading picks. Not sure I agree with the reasoning. If a high draft pick out of high school or his agent tells a team that the player won’t sign with them, the team will not want to waste that draft pick and move on to some one else that would actually sign.

Dave Cameron: Exactly. That gives the player leverage in determining where he plays.

Dylan: Do you think any player in the majors or minors today has a non-zero chance to hit .400? And who is most likely?

Dave Cameron: With strikeout rates at these levels, no.

Dave Cameron: You’d basically have to run a .450 BABIP or something.

Jaime: Nats won’t replace Zimmerman if they absolutely have to? Based on a one week sample size? Zimmerman has been dreadful the past few years, is there reason to believe this is more than just a hot streak?

Dave Cameron: His exit velo numbers are still good, and they don’t think his results last year are indicative of his true talent.

JWR: On a scale of 1-10, how serious is the Dodgers’ “can’t hit lefties” problem?

Dave Cameron: 3

Joe: So is Otani not eligible for any sort of contract extension?

Dave Cameron: That was the issue I addressed in the article. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlbs-other-shohei-otani-problem/

Dave Cameron: MLB can’t really say he’s never allowed to sign an extension.

Dave Cameron: But they can say that he can’t sign one right away.

Dave Cameron: So what’s the point at which it’s okay to sign him? No one knows.

JWR: Are you in favor or opposed to more agressive measures to speed up the game, including a pitch clock?

Dave Cameron: Yes. I think the time between pitches is a giant waste.

Dave Cameron: And is easily fixed.

toki: From what I’m reading wouldn’t signing Otani to a 1 year deal with a wink-wink agreement for a very lucrative extension following the season be the best way to do this?

Dave Cameron: Wouldn’t be allowed.

Dave Cameron: He can only sign a standard contract that gives the signing team the normal six/seven years of control.

Dave Cameron: Alright, that’s it for me this week.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out everyone. I won’t be chatting next Wednesday as my brother is flying up for a few days, but I’ll likely chat on Tuesday or Thursday instead.

Dave Cameron: See you next week.