Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 5/11/16

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s do this.

Ben: Cubs vs Red Sox World Series.

Dave Cameron: Certainly possible. Probably even the most likely option at this point.

Dave Cameron: But most likely WS match-up is still like a 100-1 shot or something.

Drew: Having trouble finding the Trade Value series. What am I doing wrong? Also, when do we get new ones?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-the-full-list/

Dave Cameron: The series runs every year during the All-Star break.

Mike: I call this the Maddon Hurdle. Are these two managers leaping into the new era of successful baseball management, or are they just mad scientists stirring the pot?

Dave Cameron: It’s not just those two; it’s the entire organizations buying in. You can’t just put Maddon or Hurdle in any dugout and expect instant transformation. Those guys are part of a larger process, but both deserve lot of credit for figuring out how to get their players to buy in.

Brian: Javier Baez still running a quite elevated swinging strike rate. K rate will almost certainly rise some unless something else changes. But he can be a pretty usefully guy if he can K less than 30% of the time right? Short of a star perhaps. But the defense looks pretty slick and the power is legit if he can make enough contact.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he and Trevor Story have a lot of similarities.

Almond joy : Is a package centered around conforto and matz almost enough to land trout? Is that something that could actually make sense for both teams?

Dave Cameron: It would take a lot more.

Fire Derek Shelton: What do we make of Logan Morrison, he of the -9 wRC+, and how should the Rays use him going forward?

Dave Cameron: He’s bad, he’s been bad for a while, and I don’t know why the Rays traded for him in the first place.

Leo: After your article last week, you are probably with crazy Trout trades, but I figured I’d send mine as well: Moncada, Devers, Benintendi, Bradley Jr. for Trout? Maybe even swap Pujols and Hanley contracts or add a pitching prospect if that is too light. This may be crazy in either direction. My feeble brain can’t handle what an actual Trout trade would look like.

Dave Cameron: Not enough.

Dave Cameron: Putting the Pujols contract in may make it work, but I don’t think anyone will take that deal.

CecilFielder: I am getting my mba from top school and looking to enter a baseball front office. Where should I look first?

Dave Cameron: Your local comp sci department to learn how to code.

Brett W: The Cubs have an 80% chance of not winning the World Series despite being one of the best teams of the FanGraphs era. Assuming they are almost bulletproof to make the playoffs, are there reasonable moves they can make to become a greater playoff favorite? Or does the acquisition cost outweigh the benefits even for a team in win now mode?

Dave Cameron: They could use a dominant LH reliever. If the Yankees put Chapman or Miller on the market, they should be in on them. Chapman might not want to pitch the middle innings, though, and getting an LH to close wouldn’t help as much, so Miller probably better fit.

Brian: Is it fair to say that Fangraphs projections overrated the Dodgers? Every aspect about the team, besides Kershaw and Jansen, screams mediocre. We are going on a month and a half into the season and the offense still isn’t hitting. Joe Blanton is now the 8th inning guy, and Kazmir and Wood aren’t getting it done consistently. 80-85 win team?

Dave Cameron: Alex Wood has an 89 xFIP-; he was at 84 and 86 in his two good years in ATL. If you think Seager, Gonzalez, Puig and Turner will hit this poorly all year, you’re mistaken. And even with those guys not hitting, the team has a 19-14 BaseRuns record. Oh, and Julio Urias will be up shortly. So, basically, no, the Dodgers are still really good, and your perception of them is still off.

Pale Hose: What is your best guess for Manny Machado’s true talent wRC+ right now?

Dave Cameron: 140ish. Which, for an elite defender, is amazing.

The Hamburglar: With Strasburg’s signing, are we going to see significant over pays in terms of trading for SP next offseason? Even beyond the A’s and Sonny Gray, should teams like the Indians/Rays try to cash in? I can’t imagine what Archer would fetch back.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, whenever there is a supply shortage, teams are incentivized to fill the gaps. I’d bet we’ll see some teams marketing SPs to interested buyers in hopes of taking advantage of the lack of good free agent options.

TKDC: Do you consider pitcher’s pick-offs to be a part of defense or a part of “pitching”? Do pitchers get all of the credit for them, WAR -wise?

Dave Cameron: I consider it to be part of their defense. They don’t get credit for it in our WAR calculation right now — they do in RA9-WAR, since that includes all defensive performance too — but that’s clearly a weakness of the calculation, and giving the pitchers credit for their ability to control the running game is a natural place to improve.

David : Jose De Leon, Frankie Montas, Joc Pederson and Alex Verdugo for Mike Trout. Who hangs up first?

Dave Cameron: The Angels.

TKDC: I’m sure the Nats did a physical, but does the timing of this signing raise any suspicions to you, that Strasburg/Boras know something is up with his arm?

Dave Cameron: Nope. Strasburg apparently is really comfortable in DC and wanted to stay.

Cave Dameron: More bullish on Ozzie Albies or Dansby Swanson? Who moves to 2B and who stays at SS?

Dave Cameron: Swanson is the higher upside guy, Albies the higher floor. I’ll take Swanson, and guess Albies moves to 2B.

Colin: Have you ever done anything irrational?

Dave Cameron: I had a kid.

Chris: When will the Nats call up Trea Turner?

Dave Cameron: I’ll guess June 4th.

Rich: Should the Dodgers have cashed in on Puig, or do you think he’s better than he’s been playing the last year and change?

Dave Cameron: Both. I think he’s better than this, but he’s not going to be what he was a few years ago again, most likely.

Springer am Rand: Why is there such huge variation in what people around baseball consider a “fair” return in a hypothetical Trout trade? Jim Duquette, for example, suggests something as light as Matz and Conforto (with no extras), while others seem to think that any Mets offer (to keep the trade partner constant) would have to start with Syndergaard and Conforto and go up from there. What is your conception of a fair return?

Dave Cameron: In general, I think people are too focused on the one big name coming back, so they mention guys like Thor, Betts, etc… But reality is that teams trading for Trout need to keep those kinds of players to keep contending, so any deal will have to be based around a larger package of players rather than just my superstar for your star and some extras.

Meowmix: Are there any baseball writers that you think would be genuinely be a good GM?

Dave Cameron: Ben Lindbergh, perhaps. Might be a little too soft-spoken for some media markets, but bright, articulate, able to garner respect from various individuals pretty easily.

Jason: Where is the best place to find specific Statcast data?

Dave Cameron: BaseballSavant.MLB.com

Outta my way, Gyorkass: In the ESPN piece reporting on the Strasburg 7/$175M extension, it references a “rolling opt-out clause after the third or fourth year of the contract” – what exactly does that mean? Does this opt-out manifest itself after either one of year 3 or year 4 of the contract depending on other factors?

Dave Cameron: It’s just a different way of saying two opt-outs.

Ryan: At this point, does Dexter Fowler get a bigger contract this offseason than Carlos Gomez?

Dave Cameron: Probably. Gomez is looking at a one year deal until he proves he can hit again.

Ed: Are you moving to Oregon? Did I miss something?

Dave Cameron: Yes, the wife accepted a position at the cancer center in Bend,so we’re moving this fall.

Benji: I understand RBI totals is a poor stat to evaluate an individual hitter as it relies on other players getting on base, but is there some sort of RBI w/RISP (or some sort of percentage) stat that reflects how (forgive me) “clutch” a hitter is in knocking in those runs when those opportunities arise?

Dave Cameron: RE24 is a good metric for giving you a hitter’s total value in all situations, based on how well he produces runs given the opportunities he had. You don’t want to ignore a guy who moves a guy from 1st to 3rd by just focusing on RISP, after all.

Phil: I keep reading that this Strasburg contract is a sign by the Nats to Harper that they will be “winners” for a long while, I guess in an attempt to convince him that they are the best team for him… but given the level of deferred money they keep throwing to keep payroll manageable and the ongoing MASN issue, there is no way they have $40M+ just sitting there for him next offseason, no? I see this as a clear sign they need to hedge for his guaranteed departure.

Dave Cameron: I think they know they have 0% chance of keeping him, so they’re trying to acquire/keep the guys they can.

Scott: Way too early, but who do you think would win the NL MVP if the season ended today? Who should win?

Dave Cameron: Dexter Fowler, probably. I’d probably vote for Kershaw.

Kylo Ren: Do you have any good primers on swing %? I’m good with stuff like wRC+ and FIP and whatnot, I could use some more advanced understanding of things like swing or whiff % and I like looking at Brooks but don’t really know what the hell I’m doing.

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/

StrastyStras: What’s your take on the Nats bullpen? They seem to be in troubles lately.

Dave Cameron: Dusty Baker needs to realize, real soon, that Shawn Kelley is his best reliever, not a mop-up guy.

Dave Cameron: If they just start using Kelley as their high-leverage relief ace, they’ll be fine.

Jeff: Isn’t a trade for Trout impossible to be a reality? A team would have to sacrifice so much to get Mike Trout, it would just leave them in a similar situation the Angels are currently in right?

Dave Cameron: Nope, that’s a myth. There are a good number of teams that could trade for Trout without destroying their MLB talent pool.

Brad: If you are D.D and Epler offered you Trout for Betts, E-Rod, Devers, and Moncada do you do it?

Dave Cameron: I love Mookie, but yes, the present value of wins to the Red Sox is high enough that I’d make that deal.

Phil: While it seems likely that the Dodgers are the best fit for a Trout trade, and that Seager, Urias and a couple other good prospects would potentially be enough… am I wrong to think Friedman just wouldn’t be interested in that? He seems to love his collection of potential and depth and even if pairing Trout and Kershaw would be historically unfair, I can’t make my mind think its likely or possible.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, they’re not going to trade Seager.

mtsw: Should we suspect Scott Boras knows something about the condition of Strasburg’s elbow the Nationals do not if he was willing to sign the extension?

Dave Cameron: No. Boras works for Strasburg, not the other way around. He also just had Beltre re-sign with Texas, he did the Weaver deal with LAA, Gomez with Milwaukee. It’s not unheard of for Boras clients to skip FA.

Ross: What do you think of the Mariners permanently converting Edwin Diaz to bullpen?

Dave Cameron: I know people will probably freak out about it, but if the change-up really isn’t making any progress, this was inevitable.

Duderino: Trout trades are fun to think about, but considering that he’s the only reason for Angels fans to go to the ballpark, trading him is not only a bad baseball decision, its a bad business decision. I’d give it a less than 1% chance of happening this year. Agree or disagree?

Dave Cameron: Disagree with the premise, but agree the Angels won’t do it. The reality, though, is that people buy tickets to see winning teams, not star players on terrible ones.

EC: Could Nats be one of the teams marketing starters? Joe Ross, and to a much less extent Gio Gonzalez, seem like pretty good pieces.

Dave Cameron: Potentially, yes.

Oleg: With the two opt-outs, that Strasburg deal still seems to be pretty close to market-value, no? Even with the deferrals, he still gets those accelerated if he opts-out, right?

Dave Cameron: No, he only gets the deferrals for years he is under contract. If he opts out after year three, he gets $30 million in deferred money, not $70 million.

Kylo Ren: Schwarber for Miller? Something like that? Soler for Chapman?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the Cubs would do Schwarber for Miller straight up, but those are pieces that would make more sense for the other team than their current one.

Dave Cameron: Might take a bigger deal to make it work, but framework makes some sense.

Trainman: I know it’s still far away, but with the lack of free agents In 2017 besides Bautista and encarnacion, what are the odds cespedes opts out for a much bigger payday? His walk rate is much higher and he is showing last years surge wasn’t a fluke

Dave Cameron: He’s opting out unless he blows out a knee or fails a drug test.

Guest: You’ve written a lot of dumb articles, but the one about trading Trout takes the cake.

Dave Cameron: Thanks!

Jeff: But if you don’t include a young star player, why would the Angels accept the trade?

Dave Cameron: Because baseball is about putting a good team on the field, not having the best one young player you can get.

Jim: Scale of 1-10…how disappointed would you be if your kid grows up to hate baseball?

Dave Cameron: 1. I am not much like my Dad in terms of interests, so I don’t have much of the perspective that he has to like what I like. If he is happy listening to classic music and painting rose petals, more power to him.

JJ: Thoughts RE: Yordano Ventura? Long term is he just a rich man’s Eovaldi?

Dave Cameron: I think he’s better than Eovaldi, but he looks like a mid-rotation starter to me, and that’s with the premium stuff. When it degrades, he might lose value fast.

CarrotJuice: Are you dreading the 9AM chat start when you move?

Dave Cameron: No, I’m actually looking forward to the ability to shift my schedule, get up earlier, and spend most of my awake time in daylight hours.

Trainman: How will these recent contracts (scherzer, Strasburg) with the deferred payments after the contracts expire impact their finances to acquire talent down the line?

Dave Cameron: My guess is the Lerners are planning on selling the franchise at some point, and are hopeful that they won’t be around for the deferred payment years.

Nelson: So are there only 3 teams that can afford to sign Harper? Most owners including Ted Lerner (5 billion) are billionaires. You dont think one will want to make a splash?

Dave Cameron: These guys aren’t going to spend their personal fortune on their baseball teams; they run them as businesses, with budgets based on revenues and expenses.

Brett W: Why would the Yankees want to trade Miller?

Dave Cameron: If they don’t bounce back in a few months, he’ll have more value to a contender than he would to them.

Jonny: In light of the lack of pitching available at the end of this year, what does Matt Harvey’s value look like, assuming he gets right and looks more like his 2015 version? A return like the Braves got for Shelby Miller possible?

Dave Cameron: The Shelby Miller trade was lunacy. No one is going to be in a rush to re-do that mistake.

Greg: Dave Hypothetical question, if a team were to acquire Scherzer in a trade. Would the Nationals still be responsible for the deferred money or is that something that would have to be worked out in the trade?

Dave Cameron: The deferred money accrues just like normal salary, so the Nationals would be responsible for the deferred money for the time he played for them, and the new team would be responsible for it for the remainder of the contract.

Sid Monge: Hey Dave – How legit is Nick Castellanos? Obviously he can’t keep running a .450 BABIP, but to my eyes the approach does seem improved and the quality of contact has been undeniable (as compared to past seasons). And the defense might not be execrable!

Dave Cameron: With his plate discipline, he needed the power spike to be a viable big league hitter. If he keeps the ISO over .200, he can be a nice piece.

Josh in DC: What’s your favorite bad prediction? Me, I was convinced Jon Lester would never make it.

Dave Cameron: I thought Andy Marte was going to be a superstar.

Walt Whitman: My wife and I are considering going to a fee-only financial planner to make sure we’re handling our finances smartly. It seems like the services we want will cost around $3K, which is a little more than we were expecting. We are doing most of the things on Harold Pollack’s index card, but we definitely need help with life insurance/estate planning and saving for our newborn daughter’s college. Do you think seeing a professional is worth it?

Dave Cameron: Don’t spend $3k. My wife and I spent $950 for our time with a fee-only FA. I live in a lower cost in living area, so I’m guessing it’s going to be more elsewhere, but it shouldn’t be 3x. If it is, just spend $500 on plane tickets and fly to NC, use the cheaper ones here, and get a free vacation while you’re at it.

Andrew: Yes, but those deferred payments due would factor in the price they could receive for the franchise, no?

Dave Cameron: To a small extent, yes. New owners will look at the debts the franchise has, but when we’re talking a few hundred million owed to players on interest-free deferrals, it’s going to be a small factor. Teams are valued in the billions now, so owners won’t walk away over $100M in future payment commitments.

bbqseeds: Could the Shelby Miller trade have started out much worse for the Snakes?

Dave Cameron: Shelby Miller could have been exposed as the secret head of ISIS, I guess.

Kimball: Just for reference, is it worth submitting questions after 12:30, or is the queue too full?

Dave Cameron: I looked at every question submitted today. Can’t answer them all, of course, but I do try to make sure to not just answer the early submissions.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out today, everyone.