Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 5/25/16

12:01
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone. Unless you’re Matt Harvey, I guess.

12:01
Joe S: Has to be asked… What would you have done with Harvey?

12:03
Dave Cameron: This is the kind of thing that’s basically impossible to say we know better from the outside. Maybe Harvey wouldn’t respond well to doing the phantom-injury thing, and maybe he’s just got too much pride to try to figure things out in the minors. I think, in this case, the Mets just know more than we do, so it’s not really worth saying that we’d do things differently.

12:03
Curtis: What is the most impressive thing about the Mariners hot start? How good their record would be if they could actually be .500 at home?

12:04
Dave Cameron: The bullpen has probably been the biggest factor. It looked like it could have been a disaster, but they’re getting good innings from reclamation projects like Nuno, Montgomery, and Peralta. And it looks like they stole Nick Vincent from SD.

12:04
Erik: What is the logic behind allowing some types of draft pick trading but not others? Do you see this changing after the next CBA? Or is it somehow in the interests of either the players or the owners to keep it this way?

12:05
Dave Cameron: The allowance of trading competitive balance picks was a trial balloon, I think, to see how it would work without overhauling the system at once. My guess is that we still won’t see the wholesale trading of draft picks in the next CBA, but maybe the one after that.

12:05
Kurt: As a met fan, should I deeply concerned about Harvey and DeGrom, or happy that they still somehow lead the mlb in pitching WAR.

12:06
Dave Cameron: Deeply concerned is probably overstating things, but you have plenty of legitimate reasons for worry. This is why building a team around a pitching staff is scary.

12:06
tom kim: Can rich hill really keep this up for the ROS? It’s ridiculous.

12:07
Dave Cameron: I think he’ll be a good pitcher until he gets hurt. And no one knows when that will be.

12:07
Dave, Petaluma: Congrats on the pending move to Bend. I lived there for 13 years, during which I served for awhile as the president of the most recent pro ballclub in town. I still miss the people and setting of Bend. Changing subjects, I need Greensboro advice. Two friends and I meet each summer for a week of minor league ball. This year, we begin in Greensboro. I need a pub for an afternoon beer session and a diner for a hearty breakfast before heading to Danville. I have Gibb’s Hundred and Iron Hen. Can I do better?

12:09
Dave Cameron: I’m probably the wrong guy to offer pub advice, given that I don’t drink, which might get me a lot of weird looks in Bend as well. But for breakfast, I might suggest Smith Street Diner. Iron Hen is very small and can feel cramped, and while the food is good, it’s more of the “here’s something good we made with some ancient grain that we sourced from a dude on the side of the road” kind of place. Smith Street is more classic southern breakfast.

12:10
Erik: The Phillies are projected for a worse rest of season winning % than the Braves. Are the Phillies actually the worst team in the league?

12:11
Dave Cameron: I don’t know if they’re the worst, but they’re definitely still in the mix. Their BaseRuns record is 19-27, so the hot start is a total mirage, even with the excellent pitching. The Braves suck, but they have a few guys who should play better, like Inciarte. I don’t know who you’d look at on the Phillies and say “there’s improvement coming here”, but you can look at half the roster and see regression coming.

12:11
keith: Marco Estrada…does he keep this going or are you expecting major regression?

12:12
Dave Cameron: He won’t run a 2.56 ERA, but the strikeouts and GBs are both up, which is an encouraging sign. I think he’s still more of an average pitcher than a really good one, but maybe he’s closer to above average than we thought.

12:12
BK: Michael Saunders is currently a top 20 wRC+ bat, but with a sky high BABIP. Still, can he be an impact bat over course of 162, or will this come crashing down eventually?

12:12
Dave Cameron: He’s not going to keep this up. League average hitter, maybe a tick better.

12:13
leonys martin: what is a realistic base case scenario for me considering my new approach/swing? I’m thinking I can get to 25 HR’s, 20 SB’s, .270 average, .350 OBP, .820 OPS. Am I being blind? Also, are we your favorites to win the AL West?

12:14
Dave Cameron: That’s way too optimistic. He’s running a HR/FB rate over 20%, which is elite slugger territory, and he’s not an elite slugger. When the HRs start turning into 2Bs or outs, he’s going to look human again. I’d guess he’s more of a .700 OPS guy, which is perfectly useful for a good CF in Safeco.

12:14
Matt: So , Dave, how does it feel to be wrong on Julio Teheran? He’s been the best pitcher on the planet this May.

12:16
Dave Cameron: Yes, one good month should totally outweigh the fact that he threw 200 mediocre innings last year and his stuff continues to trend the wrong way. The Braves should be trading him as soon as they can find someone to buy into this. He’s Shelby Miller 2.0. It’s a mirage, and sell high while you can.

12:16
RMR: Jay Bruce is hitting like vintage Jay Bruce. But, if UZR is to be believed, he’s fielding like vintage Adam Dunn. How much does that limit his trade value?

12:17
Dave Cameron: It won’t help; he’s definitely not an asset in the field anymore. But for a team like CHW, that has DH at-bats open, they’ll still take him. But the Reds aren’t going to get any kind of great return.

12:17
Matt: Do you think Shelby Miller is hurt? His level of bad is pretty incredible.

12:18
Dave Cameron: Could be injury, could be mechanics. Could also just be that Shelby Miller is a mediocre pitcher. His 2016 is just a worse version of what he was in 2014, when the Cardinals wisely got rid of him.

12:18
Bbtb: Do the Padres have any hope of trading Matt Kemp? Or is he the next Ryan Howard? Kemp will soon be taking playing time from (somewhat) interesting prospects.

12:18
Dave Cameron: Depends on how much of the contract they’re willing to swallow. He’s probably still worth ~$5 to $7M per year as a DH to an AL team.

12:19
Will: Worried about Brantley? I’m concerned his shoulder will affect his production all year.

12:19
Dave Cameron: Yeah, shoulder injuries are no bueno.

12:20
Jeff: Dave, perhaps this would be a “bad for business” kind of question (starting fights you don’t want to start), but I would be really interested to get your reaction to Michael Wilbon’s piece at The Undefeated about race and analytics in sports. I recognize you won’t share his view about the value of analytics, but I would be curious about his claim that the movement towards analytics will have a disproportionately negative impact on minorities, particularly African-Americans. Thanks.

12:22
Dave Cameron: I think it’s best to probably just ignore the unwarranted shots at analytics and focus on his overall point, which is that the numbers community is overwhelmingly white. And that’s a problem. I’m not smart enough to know how to fix it, but I don’t think we should ignore the fact that the baseball nerd community is extremely white, but the population of baseball players and baseball fans is not. It’s a real issue.

12:22
Schiraldi: In 2011, three high school pitchers from OK were drafted in the first round: Dylan Bundy (4th overall), Archie Bradley (7th) and Michael Fulmer (44th). Right now, we’d bet on Fulmer having the highest career WAR of the three, right?

12:22
Dave Cameron: Yes.

12:23
Poonrod: You seemed pretty excited about Bryce Harper passing Mike Trout sooner than expected about a month ago as the best player in baseball. Have you reversed your course since then? I haven’t heard much about it since the SSS reversed course.

12:23
Dave Cameron: I wrote a piece explicitly saying that Harper had not surpassed Trout at that point, at a time when many others were racing to say that Trout had been dethroned.

12:24
Brett W: You’ve said in the last 2 chats that the Yankees should trade Miller this year if they can’t turn this season around, even though he’s controlled. Is the same true of Tanaka then?

12:24
Dave Cameron: Yes, if someone would take the Tanaka deal. Given the remaining commitment, the opt-out, and his health, I’m not sure he’d even get claimed on waivers.

12:25
Terry C: So…what exactly is going on with Harvey? He seems to lose it in the middle innings every start, with a velocity drop and a tendency to groove pitches. How do the Mets proceed?

12:25
Dave Cameron: I don’t think anyone knows. Command isn’t one of those things that’s as easy to pinpoint a cause of.

12:26
Fangraphs Sucks: You guys were totally wrong about the dbacks. That Shelby Miller trade and Greinke signing were great. We’re totally NOT the 2015 Padres.

12:27
Dave Cameron: To be fair to Arizona, a lot of our problem with their moves was that their secondary players weren’t that good. But their secondary players have been good! Tomas is not total garbage this year, Lamb is looking quite good, Segura has hit well, Ray is giving them good innings at the back of the rotation.

12:27
Dave Cameron: If Greinke and Miller were pitching well and they had a healthy Pollock, they’d probably be playing well.

12:28
Matt: Assuming Drew Pomeranz is traded, is Melvin Upton Jr. the Padres rep for the ASG? Please let this happen! Imagine the salty Braves fans

12:28
Dave Cameron: I can’t imagine the Padres trading Pomeranz.

12:28
Dave Cameron: They should, but they won’t.

12:29
Concerned White Sox Fan: The White Sox are regressing as expected. What moves do you think Hahn needs to make to keep them in contention throughout the season? Starter, bullpen, bat? All three? What kind of guys should he be looking for to fill those holes?

12:30
Dave Cameron: They need at least one more SP and an OF/DH upgrade. They have money in the budget from LaRoche’s retirement, so I could see them in on Shields if they go strong for another pitcher. More likely, I bet they’ll go for a Bruce/CarGo type of hitter and try to find a pitcher on the cheap for Cooper to fix.

12:30
Billy Beane: Did I get fleeced by AJ f-ing Preller for Pomeranz???

12:30
Dave Cameron: Yep. That trade never really made any sense for the A’s.

12:31
russell martin: I am not just declining, I have something severally wrong with my swing, right?

12:31
Dave Cameron: You have to be hurt. There’s no other reasonable explanation.

12:31
Eric: If you had unilateral control over deciding the next CBA, what would be your (fair) solution to the current Super 2 setup that is clearly not working?

12:32
Dave Cameron: Make a service year something like 60 days, so that the cost of keeping a guy in the minors is too high to try and get the extra year.

12:33
Frank: So…I guess August was right when he compared Cody Anderson to Matt Harvey?

12:33
Dave Cameron: I laughed.

12:33
Nick in CLE: Hi Dave. Does the addition of the new prospect analyst’s chat on Fridays mean that we won’t have any more Jeff Sullivan chats? Jeff’s chats are really enjoyable.

12:34
Dave Cameron: Jeff was off last Friday, so Eric just filled in for a week. We’ll give Eric a regular weekly chat spot shortly, but it won’t replace Jeff’s, and it probably won’t be Friday.

12:35
Matt Harvey: I’m hurt, right? Even if I’m more hittable at low 90s, I shouldn’t be this bad

12:35
Dave Cameron: The stuff is down but not dramatically. I don’t know what kind of injury causes lousy command.

12:35
Tom: The Red Sox trade for Rich Hill. He is not gonna be an A the whole season, and the Sox have seen how good is can be. They have to trade for him at the deadline. Thought?

12:36
Dave Cameron: Not Dombrowski’s kind of guy. He likes velocity.

12:36
Forsyth: Have we seen enough to alter our perception of JBJ? Past calendar year, he’s been a 4.5 win player with a 151 wRC+. Is it reasonable to expect him to be a 120 wRC+ guy and a 4-5 win player going forward?

12:36
Dave Cameron: I think that’s probably too high still. I’d put him in the 110 wRC+ and +3 to +4 WAR range.

12:37
Ryan: Are you buying into Hosmer’s power? Can he hit 30?

12:37
Dave Cameron: He’s still hitting a ton of grounders, so 30 seems unrealistic. I’d guess 20-25.

12:38
Anthony: What the heck happened to Carlos Gomez… Who broke him?!

12:38
Dave Cameron: He failed a physical last summer, so it seems like the Brewers.

12:39
jon: can Trayce Thompson be a star?

12:40
Dave Cameron: The strikeout rate is too high for that, probably, but he looks like a nice average player.

12:41
Richie: The Phillies will also be shutting down some of those fine starting pitchers, yes?

12:42
Dave Cameron: Yes. Part of the reason our projections aren’t as high on the Phillies is because we aren’t giving all these young starters full seasons worth of innings.

12:42
Lars: Is it too early to have evolved thoughts on Dipoto’s offseason? If not, would love to hear them.

12:43
Dave Cameron: Hard not to like what he did at this point. Don’t think they saw this coming with Martin, though; I had a friend in their organization predict that Boog Powell was their starting CF by this summer, so I think they just brought Martin in as a stopgap and hoped for some improvement. So it’s a mixture of good process and good luck, as most success stories are.

12:44
Aron: Is Syndergaard likelier to get hurt than most pitchers because he throws so GD hard?

12:44
Dave Cameron: Probably, yes.

12:44
Dave Cameron: We don’t know for sure, but guys who throw this hard have all gotten hurt.

12:45
Rick: Edinson Volquez has a $10M mutual option for 2017 with a $3M buyout. How does that work? If KC wants him to stay but Volquez wants to hit free agency, would they still owe him $3M, or is the activation of the buyout dependent on KC turning down their end of the option?

12:46
Dave Cameron: Yes, I believe they would owe him the $3 million. The mutual options with buyouts are usually just there as a way to backload the contract.

12:46
Erik: True or false: Syndergaard’s improvements shouldn’t have surprised us, because he’s still so young, and the aging curve is steep for young players.

12:47
Dave Cameron: False. The aging curve for pitchers is basically a downward-sloping line.

12:47
Nick : The Red Sox are clearly the best team in the AL. True or false?

12:48
Dave Cameron: Clearly is too strong, but I’d agree that they are the best team.

12:48
Gary: This is kind of a separate point, seems relevant: aren’t most nerd communities extremely white?

12:50
Dave Cameron: Yeah, but this is a nerdy niche within a larger community that isn’t just super white. Again, I don’t have the answer on how to do this, but at some point, we have to figure out how to have this kind of appreciation for baseball be accessible to non-whites who also love this game. There are a lot of them.

12:50
XYZ: You defended the Porcello extension and it’s about the same as what Tanaka has left. You’d rather have Porcello? Based on one month of moderate success?

12:50
Dave Cameron: I don’t think anyone would claim the Porcello contract right now either.

12:50
XYZ: Would Felix Hernandez get claimed off waivers?

12:51
Dave Cameron: I think so, but I’m not sure.

12:51
Dave Cameron: The change-up is so good that he can get by without a good fastball, but he’s clearly not anything like an ace anymore.

12:52
Salvia Plath: I look at Sean Newcomb and I see a guy with potential who can’t stop walking people. What are the odds he actually makes the majors at some point?

12:52
Dave Cameron: Sometimes these guys figure it out. Most times, they end up as relievers.

12:53
j6takish: Re: year being 60 days. How would this effect journeyman players? Guys who are 28 or 29 who only get jobs because they are cheap and under team control. Would they all be free agents…?

12:53
Dave Cameron: Guys like that don’t cost significantly less in free agency than in their arb years. It won’t matter much for them.

12:54
mathenaging ’16: do you have an opinion on that 150+ pitch performance for that high schooler?

12:55
Dave Cameron: I’m not sure which one you mean, because there are a lot of them. This is a pretty clear case of a moral hazard, as the coach gets all the benefit without taking on any of the risk. This is why regulations exist, because human beings won’t make the optimum choices in a case where they can spend someone else’s value to benefit themselves.

12:56
Archie: So what would you peg Julio Teheran as? A #4/5 starter or long man on a contender? Wondering if the my Red Sox would have interest? Thanks

12:57
Dave Cameron: He’s a ~2.5 WAR pitcher who relies heavily on weak contact, and whose stuff is going the wrong way. He has value, but he’s more of a mid-to-back-of-the-rotation guy, and the wheels could come off at any time.

12:57
Dave Cameron: Which is basically exactly what we said about Shelby Miller six months ago.

12:57
Pedro Cerrano: What kind of hitter is Mikael Franco?

12:58
Dave Cameron: An overly aggressive slugger.

12:59
pirates hurdles: “False. The aging curve for pitchers is basically a downward-sloping line.” True regarding velocity, but not true regarding performance. Seems like the majority of pitchers get better with MLB experience. Is there a study that suggests otherwise?

1:00
Dave Cameron: Yes, a lot of them. Google “Pitcher Aging Curves”

1:00
Oliver: Kershaw for MVP?

1:02
Nels: Teheran’s slider is the best it’s ever looked, he’s changing speeds more effectively, and his fastball is up a tick from last year. So how is his stuff trending in the wrong direction?

1:02
Dave Cameron: Teheran’s average fastball velo in 2015: 91.2. 2016: 90.1. I know Braves fans are in love with this guy, but you don’t get your own facts.

1:03
Pumpsie Green: Do you see the union asking to double the minimum salary to $1 million, and what kind of traction would that get this winter?

1:04
Dave Cameron: I think it goes up, but doesn’t get doubled. This CBA negotiation might be as much a fight between high and low revenue owners as owners and players, and teams with lower payrolls would be disproportionately hurt by a drastic increase in the league minimum.

1:04
Jeff: No player who plays at most 20% of the 162 games should be considered for MVP.

1:05
Dave Cameron: A batter gets credit for a game played by hitting three or four times; Kershaw gets credit for a game pitched by facing 30 batters. These are not the same thing, as should be obvious.

1:06
Dave Cameron: Alright, off to do some writing. Thanks for hanging out everyone. Yes, even you Julio Teheran truthers.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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Radermechermember
7 years ago

Dave,is Shelby Miller the snakes, BIGGEST MISTAKE EVER.