Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 5/6/15

Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so let’s do this.

Comment From Pale Hose
Is it possible speedy guys benefit more from soft contact vs. hard?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, one of the fun things about batted ball data is that you can actually see that production relative to how hard you hit the ball is almost like a U. There’s a big area in the middle where production is extremely low, because you hit it hard enough to go right at a defender, but if you hit it weaker than that, you might bloop one in or get an infield hit. Hitting the ball harder isn’t better at every velocity point.

Comment From Mike Honcho
How many NL players would you pick ahead of Matt Carpenter for the next 2-3 years?

Comment From Kevin A
Is Matt Carpenter literally the greatest baseball player in history?

Dave Cameron: Matt Carpenter, getting attention.

Dave Cameron: I love Matt Carpenter, by the way. He’s my favorite kind of player. But he’s not this good, of course.

Comment From Shark
How should Houston handle Carlos Correa? -those stats in AA are now video game-like.

Dave Cameron: They’re going to keep him down through the Super Two window, so another 6-7 weeks at least. Probably want to give him some AAA time before they promote him for good.

Comment From Buck
How likely is it that the increased patience displayed by guys like Machado, Reddick, Blackmon, etc. is real?

Dave Cameron: Changes in swing rates can be identified in a much smaller sample than production metrics that have a bunch of variables, but you still want to regress them back towards their previous levels. Don’t just assume that they’ve done a 180 and are entirely different. But you can be more aggressive with these kinds of changes than with almost anything else.

Comment From Tim
Are the Astros in the mix for any starters on the market?

Dave Cameron: I could see them as a player for Samardzija. I don’t think they’ll want to take on any long-term contracts, but cashing in a few prospects for a few months of Shark could be a thing they do.

Comment From Scott
Time to start worrying about McCutchen?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t buy that he’s healthy. The Pirates tried to downplay this all spring, and they don’t seem particularly trustworthy in this regard. Your power comes from your legs. Victor Martinez is in the same boat. These guys aren’t healthy and probably aren’t going to be very good until they are.

Comment From Josh G
Michael Pineda: Cy Young contender?

Dave Cameron: If he stays healthy, he could be in the mix.

Comment From Vslyke
The Pirates have had a rough week – if they continued to fall out of contention do you think they would be sellers at the trade deadline?

Dave Cameron: Depends on Cutch’s health. If he ends up needing to get shut down at some point, yeah, I think they’ll realize they don’t have enough without him. If he improves and gets healthy, hard to see them punting one of his prime seasons.

Comment From Josh G
How worried are you about Brandon Morrow’s inflammation? He says the DL stint is precautionary and not a big deal, but on the other hand it is Brandon Morrow.

Dave Cameron: He’s a right-handed Jamie Garcia. Expect 50 to 100 innings a year and that’s about it.

Comment From Kevin
Assuming Adam Jones’ new plate discipline is not just a 100 PA aberration, how odd is it for a player like him with so many free swinging years under his belt to alter his approach to such an extent? What does the new Adam Jones look like over a full year if his K rate hovers around 15% instead of 20%?

Dave Cameron: Low K% != improved plate discipline. His O-Swing is higher than his career average, and his Z-Swing is right in line with it. He’s making more contact, but he’s not being more selective. That seems less likely to be a real change.

Comment From Butters
You get o build a pitcher from scratch you pick L or R, any four pitches, but the grades of the four pitches have to be one of the following ( each can only be used once): 65, 60, 55, 50. What do you choose?

Dave Cameron: I’ll take an LHP with a 60 fastball, 65 change-up, 55 slider, and 50 knuckleball.

Comment From Catoblepas
Hi Dave! Velocity data has been pretty fashionable lately, with the limited Statcast data we have, but between Jeff’s article last week re: 100 mph ground balls or measurement errors, I’m skeptical of both the reliability and meaning. How do you feel about what we have right now (the qualitative hard-hit/soft-hit classifications), what we will have soon (Statcast), and what we hopefully will have in the future (years of Statcast data)?

Dave Cameron: I think Statcast is potentially revolutionary. I think the shorter-term future is more limited, and this will all take a few years to provide significant actionable information.

Comment From WLX
if you had to pick between Matz or Syndergaard, whom would you choose?

Dave Cameron: Syndergaard, easily.

Comment From Buck
What are some possible mutually-beneficial trades involving the Dodgers moving Justin Turner and one of Van Slyke/Ethier, though not necessarily together.

Dave Cameron: Justin Turner for Tanner Roark, maybe?

Comment From Butters
Is the fangraphs team going to a DC meet up or something similar? I live in the area and would love to attend something like, whether its just something informal like a couple guys are in town for a game or something more planned.

Dave Cameron: Do you have our email bugged? We literally just started planning a DC event this week.

Dave Cameron: So stay tuned.

Comment From Jeff
Just a couple of weeks ago you said in one of these chats you thought Carlos Correa was more like a “potential good solid piece” than a star. What is that assessment based on exactly? Why have you always been so high on a prospect with so limited defensive/base running value like Kris Bryant over a SS prospect like Correa?

Dave Cameron: A couple of weeks ago, Correa’s power production had always been more okay than anything special. Crushing AA like he’s doing is obviously answering some questions about how much power he might have, and makes my comment look silly in retrospect.

Dave Cameron: But I’d still take Bryant over Correa by a lot.

Comment From lunch
should the nationals be worried yet? is there any reason for their below expectation performance, or still too small a sample?

Dave Cameron: Rendon hasn’t played all season and Werth might as well not have. Health is always the great equalizer.

Comment From Buck
Are the projected RoS winning percentages based on the Depth Chart projections? If so, how often are each updated? Seems like a laborious task to meaningfully update the Depth Charts.

Dave Cameron: The depth charts are updated by a team of six guys who are each responsible for one division, so no one gets too overworked. They are updated whenever moves warrant a change.

Comment From Shawn
How do we interpret the pull/center/opp data for hitters? Generally speaking do we want to see guys pull the ball more, or is it a case by case basis?

Dave Cameron: It’s not that simple. More pulled balls will generally equal more power/lower BABIP. If you’re an underpowered middle infielder, you probably want to spread it around.

Comment From WLX
If you were managing, and you were down by one run with the bases loaded, bottom of the ninth, one out. You had a .220 lifetime hitter up who is slow, with barry bonds on deck. Would you tell him not to swing?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably try a suicide squeeze.

Comment From John
Lots of people got on board the Guerrero train, but since he started getting regular playing time he hasn’t recorded a hit and has been striking out a lot. Overexposure? Pitchers adjusting (i.e., not challenging him)? Or is he trying to hard to keep a job? Will he be able to adjust?

Dave Cameron: Hard to know what he is at this point. We just don’t have a lot of information.

Comment From John
shoudl the astros trade for hamels?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Comment From mtsw
Why is A-Rod’s move up the HR ladder unmarketable because of steroids while Andy Pettitte’s number retirement will get a huge ceremony?

Dave Cameron: Hypocrisy.

Comment From discountdoublechump
would you think a package like devers, owens and margot gets the red sox cole hamels?

Dave Cameron: It should.

Comment From Tom
All throughout his career, as he’s improved, people have said, Matt Carpenter is not this good. What if he is?

Dave Cameron: Well, he has a 200 wRC+ or something, so I think it’s safe to say he’s not *this* good. But yeah, it’s probably time to stop expecting him to turn into a pumpkin. He’s really good.

Comment From Devin Mess-o-raco
What the hell are the Reds doing with me? They’re acting like a jobless college grad who’s ignoring his 100k debt.

Dave Cameron: Seems like he probably needs hip surgery, which puts him out for the year, so they’re just hoping they can figure out a way to avoid the inevitable. You take him off the roster and this team is screwed, so they probably just don’t want to punt on 2015 yet.

Comment From FTF
Just read Eno’s article on Vogt, I found it really convincing. So, do you believe in Stephen Vogt ?

Dave Cameron: I could see him as a 110-120 wRC+ guy going forward. As a catcher, that’s a very nice piece.

Comment From Bryan price
Is there a correlation between low walk rates and high BABIP?

Dave Cameron: Maybe, I haven’t looked. If there is, it’s very likely a selection bias issue, as big leaguers have to do something to get to the big leagues, and if they’re not walking, they’re probably making up for it in other ways.

Comment From Guest
Aside from the debate about Lucroy, should the Brewers be looking to move Carlos Gomez? What kind of return could they expect for him?

Dave Cameron: They should trade everyone. Gomez is the most likely big chip for them, but I don’t know which contenders are really looking for a CF.

Comment From baltic wolf.
It is often said on FG that walk rates stabilize rather quickly. But how about K rates for pitchers? Example: If a pitcher’s K rate for the previous season was 16% and it jumps the next year to 23% through the first five or six starts, is that something we can trust is real? Or is that best answered by looking at pitch/FX data to see if a pitcher is throwing a new pitch?

Dave Cameron: That is not how you want to use the stabilization rate concept. You almost never want to ignore previous data, and should almost always regress towards the prior levels. There is no magic point at which you say “this guy was X but is now Y.” You can move towards Y, and get more comfortable with that movement as the sample grows, but you never want to pretend that he wasn’t X.

Comment From Brian
Why not make the fastball as he 65 grade?

Dave Cameron: Lefties face a ton of RHBs, so they need a good change-up to neutralize the platoon advantage.

Comment From Vision
Finance question: Grad school loans totaling 60k at 6%. Married, one child, 36, 10% to 401k. Should I refinance my house-which has substantial equity and no PMI- to pay off loans? I exceed $2500 allowance in student loan interest on taxes each year.

Dave Cameron: I would be a bit wary about turning unsecured debt into secured debt. If you default on your student loans, well, that sucks for your credit, but if you default on your HELOC, you’re homeless.

Comment From John
How is Bartolo Colon getting this done? I mean, shouldn’t professional hitters be embarrassed they can’t handle a 87mph fastball that he is throwing ~80% of the time?

Dave Cameron: It’s remarkable. I don’t think anyone understands this, really.

Comment From Hogan
Justin Turner for Tanner Roark? that sounds like a trade idea a lunatic dodgers fan would suggest? hey let’s trade a utility infielder for a decent starting pitcher!

Dave Cameron: You apparently haven’t noticed that Justin Turner is actually pretty good.

Comment From Tom
Any plans ever for a St. Louis meetup? Comeon, best fans in baseball, right?

Dave Cameron: We don’t have many writers in the midwest, unfortunately. Clearly, it’s because of our huge EAST COAST BIAS, but logistically, it makes an STL meetup unlikely.

Comment From WLX
Matt Carpenter or Kris Bryant, this season, who are you taking?

Dave Cameron: Carpenter for this year, Bryant for every year from 2016 on.

Comment From soaktherich
How much does individual BA-RISP fluctuate during a single season? Assuming team BA-RISP correlates well with run scoring (and therefore holds up the offensive side of winning), how long should a manager wait for a non-star to come around after a slow start with RISP?

Dave Cameron: The best idea is to just never look at BA/RISP again.

Comment From Jmd
If you had to quess, how far ahead is the teams data from what is available to the public?

Dave Cameron: Less than people think. Their access to health information is a huge blindspot for the public that we’ll never be able to bridge.

Dave Cameron: But their projections and proprietary calculations are not so terribly different from the public realm. They’re better in many cases, but the public stuff is actually pretty okay.

Comment From TKDC
What team is least likely to make the playoffs in 2016? 2017?

Dave Cameron: Phillies. Phillies.

Comment From Hogan
Dave the squeeze play sounds like a bad call IMO. if successful, the guy is thrown out at first ,leaving a base open so the other team can intentionally walk Bonds.

Dave Cameron: If successful, you win the game, no?

Comment From MJ
I know regression is coming for Devon Travis, but do you think he can post at least an .800 OPS for the rest of the season while hitting at least 13 more HR (ie to get to 20+ on the season)?

Dave Cameron: Take the under on an .800 OPS. I’d guess .750ish.

Comment From Jeff
So, base running and positional value don’t matter much? Nobody is doubting at this point that Correa is a legit SS defensively while a lot of people either don’t think Bryant has the talent to be above average at 3B or they simply think his immediate future is as corner OF.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’m the guy who doesn’t think defense and baserunning matter…

Dave Cameron: It is possible to value those things while also thinking Bryant’s offensive edge will outweigh those things.

Comment From Brian
I was at a game last night with a friend who is relatively new to baseball. My friend straight stumped me with a pretty silly question: do the bat boys get paid? It’s sort of an inane consideration, so I’ve never thought about it, but my understanding is that usually the bat boy is like a kid of one of the players or coaches or something, so probably not.

Dave Cameron: I would assume they have to get paid. Child labor laws and all.

Comment From Josh G
The Brewers have made their veterans available such as Lohse, Garza and Ramirez. The prooblem is, do they have any value? Do you see any potential trade partners that make sense?

Dave Cameron: If they eat money, they’ll get something for those guys. But if they are trying to dump salary, they’re all worthless.

Comment From David
What would it take to get Carlos Gomez?

Dave Cameron: It will be an interesting market to watch. The Tigers could use him, but I don’t know what they give up to get him. The Padres probably don’t recognize that they need him. The Mariners could be a fit.

Dave Cameron: My guess is he brings back a couple of back-end top 100 types and a few extra pieces.

Comment From John
if you are the mets, is there anything you do inseason, assuming playing roughly 500 or better thru july? any way tulo is available? gomez (shift him to rf?) solidify pitching? just hope for next year?

Dave Cameron: Let it play out, make moves in a few months. If Tulo becomes available, he’s the obvious fit.

Comment From mtsw
In a batter pitcher matchup, how much of the expected K% is determined by the pitcher and how much by the batter?

Dave Cameron: About 50/50.

Comment From chuckb
Can the Brewers trade Braun? If so, what could they expect to get back?

Dave Cameron: If they eat a decent chunk of his future salaries, maybe. But unlikely.

Comment From Phil
Why a LH Pitcher when most batters are righties? Why not a RH Pitcher to avoid the platoon advantage altogether?

Dave Cameron: LHPs with elite change-ups can mostly neutralize platoon splits, and they have advantages in shutting down the running game.

Comment From Michael Scarn
I know it’s a small sample, but Hanley Ramirez has a .400woba and is a replacement level player. Obviously his fielding has been terrible, but has he really provided the same amount of value as Ben Revere or Will Middlebrooks?

Dave Cameron: People who watch the Red Sox regularly say he’s demonstrably worse than Manny Ramirez out there. This isn’t just an ordinary bad defender. This is a guy who doesn’t know how to play the position.

Comment From Guest
Just call it an internship.

Dave Cameron: The government has cracked down on that a lot the last few years. Baseball front offices don’t have 100 unpaid interns floating around anymore.

Comment From Guest
Are Phillies in much worse shape than Brewers? They’ve got more money, and if we believe Brewers re: Lucroy only Philly will be trading a very good player this year and getting prospects in return.

Dave Cameron: I’d pay more to get Gomez than Hamels, personally.

Comment From David
Nick Markakis signing aside, it seems like Hart is doing a decent job in Atlanta, no? Just being able to unload Melvin Upton’s contract is a win!

Dave Cameron: I don’t think we should assume it’s John Hart doing these things.

Comment From Julio Pepper
Do the Cubs say yes to Bryant for Lucroy?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From The Big Dipper
Best burger in Winston?

Dave Cameron: It’s not a great burger town. Milner’s has a pretty good one.

Comment From Fister? I barely knew her!
re: bat boys…they get paid minimally, but are expected to get bonuses/tips from the players at the end of the season

Comment From Random Person
About bat boys: Yes, they get paid. State minimum salary plus tips from players at the all star break and season’s end. Amounts to around 10,000, more if the team makes the playoffs. Also, LOTS of autographs and baseball gear!

Comment From Oren
Is the HanRam-outfield experiment worth maintaining? Obviously, if he can improve – and it’s not crazy to imagine he would since he only has a few months of experience – he should have a lot of value. That said, the Red Sox have excess outfielders and Mike Napoli is departing at first base at year’s end, so the simplest thing may just be to shift him there.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, if Napoli doesn’t start hitting, maybe Hanley to 1B solves the issue.

Comment From Tom
Would the Red Sox say yes to Swihart for Lucroy?

Dave Cameron: Yeah.

Comment From Abe
What would you order for your last meal?

Dave Cameron: A 30 course tasting menu that took a very long time to finish.

Dave Cameron: Okay, I’m off. Thanks for hanging out.