Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/15/16

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone. We’re going to begin today’s chat with a life tip: if you’re selling your house, and you have a small child, don’t list the house the same week that you don’t have childcare. I don’t know what we were thinking.

Prates: Is Chris Archer just extremely unlucky? High BABIP, lowered his FB% from last season, but seems to be unlucky with high homers given up

Dave Cameron: When walks, BABIP, and HR rate all are all up the same time, it seems like it’s probably more “bad command” than “bad luck”. He’s got enough talent to get things turned around, but I’m guessing he’s just locating pitches really terribly right now.

Thatguy: Who are your early favorites to land Lucroy at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: Boston and Texas make the most sense. I could see Houston getting involved if they start making a real run at division again.

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers could also be in play, if they think that Grandal isn’t going to start hitting.

Stenzy: Would it make more sense for the Giants to pursue Wil Myers over Braun? Giving up talent either way but he is younger with less baggage.

Dave Cameron: Don’t see Padres trading Myers within the division.

Daniel: How are historic defensive metrics calculated?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/tz-tzl/

Jeet: How is the Cutch situation going to play out in Pittsburgh? Austin Meadows looks legit but Paul (Swyndan) noted in his chat last night that Cutch has an incredible amount of goodwill built up.

Dave Cameron: The Pirates can’t afford to re-sign McCutchen, realistically.

Dave Cameron: He’d have to give them the biggest hometown discount in sports history.

CamdenWarehouse: I think it was you who related that a Brewers’ FO member stated in a forum that Braun could basically be had for a AAAA type guy. This begs the question why he hasn’t been traded to the Giants (or someone else yet). Do you think the calculus has changed based on his play, the rumors are exaggerated, teams don’t want the salary, or something else altogether?

Dave Cameron: That was Gord Ash back at the Pitch Talks event in Toronto back in March. He was joking around, but the reality remains that Braun has negative trade value; he’s not worth his remaining contract, and so the Brewers will have to eat money to move him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was an August trade, since he’ll pretty easily clear waivers, and doesn’t really need to be moved buy July 31st.

ColSnap: Is Jose Bautista declining or is this just power being slow to stabilize?

Dave Cameron: He’s 35. Guys get worse at this point in their careers, sometimes rapidly.

Dave Cameron: It’s why the Blue Jays were correct to not just give the contract extension at the price he was demanding.

ColSnap: Is Duffy, Paxton, or Shoemaker’s emergence most legit?

Dave Cameron: All three have big red flags, but of the three, I’d bet on Duffy.

Dayton Moore Talking Head: What is the best move the Royals could realistically make to improve their playoff chances this year?

Dave Cameron: They need a couple new starting pitchers, so they should be in on every starter on the market.

Mike D: Is it too much to say Kris Bryant is already a superstar?

Dave Cameron: Not at all. He’s an elite player.

Scott: Dave, I read your article on the Pirates this week. Do you see them looking towards the trade market to add? Taillon’s start looked promising last night.

Dave Cameron: Depends on how they do the next six weeks, but the trick is that a small market team can’t really afford to give up a lot of future value for the right to minimally increase their chances of winning a one-game playoff. Because their shot at winning the NL Central is basically zero at this point, it limits the upside of making mid-season additions, and pushes them towards the selling side of the equation. It doesn’t mean they will definitely sell, but it’s going to take a big run from them over the next month to put them in a spot where being a significant buyer makes sense.

Kyle: Settle this debate please: Should the Astros trade for Ryan Braun, or definitely not?

Dave Cameron: I’d say no.

Monte’ Max: So what’s expected to happen with Taillon after last night’s gem?

Dave Cameron: He’s up for good at this point, I’d imagine.

Bob Dobolina: How do you see the Washington bullpen situation shaking out? Kelley obviously seems like the guy now, but with that injury history how long do you think he can hold down the closer job for?

Dave Cameron: They’ll add a late inning reliever in July.

Q-Ball: What is Eric Longenhagen’s regular chat time?

Dave Cameron: He’s going to fill in for Sullivan this Friday, and then begin his regularly weekly chats on Monday at 2 pm eastern, starting next week.

Mike: Dave, when teams sign players away from college commitments we see the dollars they receive but do they get offered anything else? Do teams sometimes also pay for college for players if the MLB dream dies?

Dave Cameron: Yes, the contracts include money for future college tuition.

The King of Kitsap County: Which current or former MLB player would you most want to invite to dinner?

Dave Cameron: Roberto Clemente, probably.

Chris: Whose offensive skillset projects better in the majors: Trea Turner or JP Crawford?

Dave Cameron: Crawford.

ryan: Could we (in theory) get all the statcast data by putting in a FOIA request on the MLB?

Dave Cameron: MLB isn’t owned by the government, so no.

Dave Kerwin: Given your assessment of the Pirates season, what do you think is their best strategy for the remainder of the year? What assets do they really have to trade beyond Melancon? Does it make sense for them to further limit Glasnow & Taillon’s service time as opposed to getting the ML experience?

Dave Cameron: Service time isn’t a consideration anymore, as we’re past the Super Two window. I think you put the best team on the field that you can for the next month, and see where you are on July 20th. If the team plays well and puts themselves in a Wild Card spot, you hold everyone and maybe add a small piece or two. If you fall further back, though, Melancon, Feliz, Freese, and Rodriguez should all go.

Zonk: When selling or buying a house, try very hard to keep emotion out of it. It’s a business transaction. Most buyers and sellers have trouble with that during a negotiation.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s one of the best arguments for using a real estate agent. The 6% commission isn’t a fun check to write, but they certainly provide a lot of real value along the way.

Joe W: How long do you think it will be before launch speed/angle are incorporated into pitchers’ statistics such as FIP?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think you’ll see metrics like FIP get adjusted for Statcast data; you’ll see new metrics developed that make things like FIP obsolete.

Larry Bernandez: Hello Dave. I know Matt Kemp isn’t great, but how does a player with currently 15 HR, 43 RBI, 33 R, a .250 BA, an ISO of .223, and a K% of 23% (21% is league avg) combine for only 93 wrc+?

Dave Cameron: Don’t ever walk.

Dave Cameron: And most of the numbers you quoted are really just the same thing: Kemp still hits for power. Saying he has HRs and RBIs and ISO are just three different metrics for one skill.

rustydude: Speaking of home buying/selling, you are on record as saying it isn’t always the best investment decision to buy a home. Makes sense to me. Have you made a decision about buying in Bend, yet? Beyond living in the home you’re buying, what other factors are you using to influence your decision?

Dave Cameron: The Bend rental market is basically nonexistent. As of a few weeks ago, there were 4,950 rental “units” in Bend, and 52 of them were available for rent, so vacancy rates are 1%. We basically don’t have a choice but to buy.

Zonk: The Cubs need bullpen help; their middle relief issues have been covered up by the fact their starting pitching has been great and Cubs have built big leads. Would you be patient with Grimm, Cahill, Wood, or aggressively seek upgrades?

Dave Cameron: They need a dominant LH reliever. Miller would be perfect. But you slide in a great lefty reliever, pair him with Strop in front of Rondon, and then figure one of Grimm/Warren/Cahill will figure things out, and you’re good.

AFan: Who should Nationals target this trade deadline?

Dave Cameron: I’d put them at the top of the list for Chapman if the Yankees make him available.

Josh: Setting a minimum PA threshold of 170, the second highest wRC+ thus far belongs to…Steve Pearce? Just how good is this guy, really?

Dave Cameron: I’m a fan. I had him as one of my top off-season bargains, and then he signed for even less than I expected. He’s not a star, but he’s a good everyday player.

gogurt: Is Erick Aybar moving at the deadline or has he been so bad that no one would consider adding him?

Dave Cameron: He’s an August trade, probably.

gogurt: Who’s more likely to make the playoffs, Pittsburgh or Houston?

Dave Cameron: Houston. The NL is top-heavy, so it’s going to be harder for Pittsburgh to run down the teams in front of them.

CamdenWarehouse: What were some of the biggest hometown discounts in history?

Dave Cameron: Trout gave a huge one to the Angels.

Dave Cameron: But he also hadn’t gotten a big salary yet at that point.

The Gyorko Store Called: Please say two nice things about the Padres baseball team (cannot be about the ballpark)

Dave Cameron: The weather is nice. Their uniforms are okay.

Dave Cameron: Realtor calling: pause.

Dave Cameron: Sorry about that, but selling the house takes priority…

Bork: Am I crazy for thinking the Jays should just let Bautista and EE walk? (With QO’s of course).

Dave Cameron: No, that’s not crazy. Neither one seemed to have a good feel for what their actual market value is, based on reporting asking prices.

Larry Bernandez: A couple days ago, somebody commented on Szym’s chat that the Cubs should wait to trade for Andrew Miller because he could get injured in the next couple of months. Wouldn’t the advantage of trading for him now be a lower cost due to less competition in the trade market?

Dave Cameron: No. As soon as the Yankees make Miller available, 15 teams will be calling with offers. There is no point at which Andrew Miller has diminished value.

Dave Cameron: Well, at least unless he gets hurt.

Josh: Can you please explain Washington’s thought process in regards to Trea Turner? Is there any legitimate reason he shouldn’t be the team’s starting SS right now?

Dave Cameron: Because Danny Espinosa is a perfectly reasonable big leaguer? I know it’s fun for people to act like he’s atrocious, but he’s a very good defender, hits lefties well, and has enough power to be playable against righties. The upgrade the Nationals will get by putting Turner in the line-up is pretty small, and so letting him develop a bit more while they evaluate their options isn’t really hurting them.

gogurt: Is Rich Hill’s injury making it more likely that the A’s will deal him this summer since if they would extend a qualifying offer at season’s end and he would probably accept?

Dave Cameron: I can’t see a scenario where Hill is healthy and not traded at the deadline. Keeping him would be nuts.

Eric: What did you think of the Phillies’ strategy of going “underslot” at #1 so they could spread the money around?

Dave Cameron: It was probably the right call in a draft with no true 1-1.

Bork: Will Dan continue doing Monday chats at 12 est?

Dave Cameron: Yep. So we’ll have two chats on Mondays.

The Gyorko Store Called: What is Chris Snelling up to?

Dave Cameron: He’s the JV coach at Sumner High School. And he still sounds like the best guy. http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/high-school/article78980777.html

Josh: Chris Sale and the White Sox have to realize this whole pitch to contact business isn’t a good idea, right? Do you think he flips the game plan and reverts back to the old Chris Sale, or do they continue with this approach going forward?

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine he’ll go back to blowing hitters away if he keeps struggling.

Larry Bernandez: Does the service time clock stop for a player who gets optioned back to the minors?

Dave Cameron: Yes. Service time is only accrued while you’re in the big leagues.

Zonk: Another home buying truism: Who are you negotiating with? The buyer? Wrong. You are negotiating with your OWN AGENT who wants to make a sale. Keep that in mind….

Dave Cameron: If you think that’s the case, you chose a terrible agent.

AF: “Service time isn’t a consideration anymore, as we’re past the Super Two window.” Is that correct? I thought the Super Two deadline was relative to the league — and since we’ve seen very few call-ups so far, someone who is called up now and plays nonstop from here on out could end up being a Super Two.

Dave Cameron: It does fluctuate from year to year, but the cutoff has never been below something like 2 years and 125 days of service, and I think we’re at ~115 or something now. We’re far enough away from the established norm that it’s safe for teams to call their guys up, I believe.

Joe: Is there a good reason not to trade within the division if that is the best offer available?

Dave Cameron: No one really wants to watch the guy you traded come back to town for three or four series a year and put a beating on you.

Jim: What is the greatest indicator of a cold hitter that is about to really heat up?

Dave Cameron: Someone putting a wool blanket around a guy.

(There’s no way to predict hot streaks.)

Ricky: Where’s the best spot to get a good education on baseball stats. We all know about “BA, HR’s, ERA, WHIP, etc.”, but when it comes to getting into deeper diving analytics…where’s the best place to find an “Analytics for Dummies” tutorial?

Dave Cameron: fangraphs.com/library

Daniel: Let your kid take over the chat, Dave.

Dave Cameron: He’s napping. I actually put him down a little earlier than usual just to be able to do this chat with you guys. You should feel special!

Dave Cameron: Or I’m a terrible parent. One of the two.

Preller: How much does everyone knowing you are selling affect trade value?

Dave Cameron: Zero. The grocery store isn’t trying to convince you that they’ll keep the milk if you don’t really want it, and you don’t care at all. Neither do buyers of baseball players.

Ed in Iowa: That was funny when Carson said that he imagines that when the child is your own you have some affection for it, and you said, “That comes and goes.” My kid is two next week… I know how that is

Dave Cameron: I think, by and large, we have a really good kid, relative to most kids. He’s happier than most. He sleeps really well. He’s got a good personality. And yet, there are still times that he’s still just super annoying. Kids are great sometimes, and they suck sometimes, and anyone who tells you differently is lying.

Dinosaur who ate Carl Everett: Who is the best player traded at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: Lucroy, unless Sonny Gray pitches really well for the next month and becomes the big pitcher that goes to Boston.

Brian: How does Albert Pujols, who hits the ball hard enough to put up 30+ HRs and doesn’t pop out that much, run a sub-.220 BABIP for as long as he has (.217 last year. .219 this year)? It can’t be all lack of speed.

Dave Cameron: He hits a bazillion infield flies.

Matt: Did Matt Kemp’s stills really erode this quickly, or do you think perhaps it’s a little bit of him looking around at the state of the team, realizing he’ll probably be traded and thinking “Screw it, might as well hit a few homers until they find me a new home”?

Dave Cameron: Probably a bit of both.

DB: So do you think that your agent doesn’t have an incentive to sell the house quickly? Or do you think that they’re able to overcome the conscious and subconscious biases this incentive will give them?

Dave Cameron: You don’t get rich as a realtor by trying to maximize your commission on every single sale; you get rich as a realtor by selling A LOT of properties. And the best way to sell a lot of properties is to come highly recommended from previous clients, and gain a reputation for working hard for the people you represent. Our realtor will do a lot better by getting us to advertise him to other potential buyers/sellers than he will by trying to get us to get him an extra $250 by taking one offer or another.

Eldridge Cleaver: Jose Reyes designated for assignment. Are there any teams who would want him?

Dave Cameron: He’ll get a minor league deal from someone, probably.

Your Name Here: Would the Brewers have received more for Lucroy in the offseason?

Dave Cameron: No, I think he’s increased his value by showing he’s over his health problems.

natsfan: Where do you find information lime how many “units” are in a specific city/town, and how many of those are actually available?

Dave Cameron: There are a lot of articles in the local Bend newspaper about the housing crisis there, because the vacancy rate is so low. They got it from an economic study that was released a few weeks back.

Stay out of Medford Dave Cameron: The Brewers are on the right track, correct?

Dave Cameron: Absolutely. And the people who know the draft well loved their draft last week too. Milwaukee is in good hands.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to go get the house cleaned up while the boy sleeps; two showings later this afternoon. Selling a house is as much fun as watching Dice-K and Steve Trachsel face off.