Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/20/16 by Dave Cameron July 20, 2016 12:03 Dave Cameron: Alright, two chats left before the trade deadline, so let’s get all rumory up in here. Or you could ask lingering trade value questions. Or anything else, really. 12:03 The Average Sports Fan: What do you think the Reds are able to get out of Jay Bruce? 12:04 Dave Cameron: A midlevel guy, not a top 100 type. He’s just not that impactful of a player. 12:04 chris: How steep a price would Cleveland have to pay for Chapman? Do you see a guy like Aiken or Bobby Bradley being shipped out? 12:04 Dave Cameron: Like Chicago, I don’t see them as a great fit for Chapman; Cody Allen is a good closer, and Chapman won’t want to pitch middle innings. They need a good LH guy to work 7-8 innings, so Miller makes a lot more sense. And you’re not getting Miller without giving up Frazier or Zimmer, and even then, might still get outbid. 12:05 Fire Kevin Cash: Who’s fixed first: Chris Archer or Drew Smyly? 12:05 Dave Cameron: Well Archer doesn’t have a shoulder problem that almost required surgery last year (that we know of), so him. 12:06 Toki: I asked my magic 8-ball if Bregman would be called up this week and it didn’t give me a clear answer, it just said “Reply hazy try again”. What are your sources saying about an imminent call-up for Bregman? 12:06 Dave Cameron: Well, they had him play 3B last night, so they’re clearly prepping him for it. With Gurriel signing, would think he should start playing some OF too. 12:06 Dan Grant: Can the Jays really still follow through on moving Aaron Sanchez to the bullpen? 12:07 Dave Cameron: It’s definitely getting more difficult to stick with that plan. At this point, they should probably start thinking about how to manage his workload while he remains in rotation, even if that means putting him on the DL to skip a couple starts. 12:07 HackaShaq: What kind of prospect package does it take to get the Rays listening about a deal for Archer? 12:08 Dave Cameron: A monster one. I ranked him ahead of every prospect in baseball on the trade value series, so any team trying to get him out of Tampa is giving up their best prospect and then some. 12:10 Bork: Would the Rays take Puig from the Dodgers and hope they can flip him in the off-season or next year for a bigger haul? 12:10 Dave Cameron: Maybe, but the shine has worn off Puig a lot. I don’t think he’d fetch that much right now. 12:10 Elton: I have a hard time gauging what Baez’ trade value is. If one of the Cubs’ starters went down, who would be an appropriate trade match with Baez as a centerpiece? 12:10 Dave Cameron: Well if the Cubs wouldn’t part with him for Pomeranz, there might not be a starter out there they would give him up for. 12:11 Mike: If you were Theo/Jed and Cashman called and said “Schwarber for Miller and Chapman?” What would you do? 12:11 Dave Cameron: Take it. 12:11 Norm!: Which Sox pitcher is more likely to actually be as good going forward as they’ve been this year so far: Steven Wright or Drew Pomeranz? 12:11 Dave Cameron: Pomeranz. Knuckleballers are so fickle. 12:12 JoshP: So Yoenis Cespedes is a Left Fielder again. How do you balance Granderson (who looked awful in CF last night), Conforto (who looked pretty good in RF last night) and Lagares (who Collins continues to let rot on the bench) going forward? 12:13 Dave Cameron: I guess I just don’t see why this is so hard; Lagares in center, Cespedes in left, Granderson in right, Conforto to first, Loney to the bench. When Duda comes back, you have a crowd, but you can figure that out then. With him on the DL, why is Loney still playing? 12:14 RK: If you had to guess, what % chance do you think the Twins hire an outsider and what % do you think they keep Antony or some other insider to recycle the same “old school” philosophy? 12:14 Dave Cameron: I’d guess 95/5 outsider. 12:15 Dave Cameron: And if they stick with Pohlad’s comment that they want someone lovable, Anthopolous is natural fit. No GM in recent history has been as beloved by their fan base. 12:15 Pessimistic White Sox Fan: Re Cubs & Pomeranz – Do you think it would have been within the realm of possibility that the Cubs wanted Anderson Espinoza themselves and just wanted to be the middleman to process that trade? Would giving up Baez be worth it to the Cubs? Would there be any other player that made sense for the Padres? 12:17 Dave Cameron: I don’t think Rosenthal’s source would have referred to an 18 year old in A-ball as a “starter with more control”. At that point, he’d have told Rosenthal that they tried to flip Pomeranz for a prospect. 12:17 Otter: Outline of a trade of Chris Sale for Moncada and Benintendi: too much, just right, or too little of a return for Sale? 12:18 Dave Cameron: I don’t think Boston would do that. They’d do one of the two and some other stuff, but not both. 12:18 Matt: Was Tanner Roark close to the Top 50 Trade Value list? 12:19 Dave Cameron: Not really, no. He’d be behind guys like Hendricks, who also didn’t make the list, in terms of moderate stuff guys who get more out of it than you’d expect. 12:20 Mike in Philly: Most valuable trade chip for the Phils: Hellickson, Neris or Gomez? Can they expect a top-100 prospect for any of these guys? 12:20 Dave Cameron: Hellickson, and no. 12:20 Von Schloss: What are the chances the Pirates make a big move and deal Meadows+ for someone like Archer/Gray? 12:20 Dave Cameron: Slim to none. 12:20 Dave: If Kershaw is done for a while, are they pretty much toast? 12:21 Dave Cameron: Isn’t that what people said when Kershaw went on the DL, and then they won like 11 of 12? 12:21 Pumpsie Green: 60 players are guaranteed more than 40 million. Two made the top 50 Trade Value, with a few more honourable mentions. I find it hard to believe any made the T50, let alone the top spot. 12:22 Dave Cameron: Mike Trout is literally 2-3x as good as most of the guys on the list. He’s worth something like $70 million a year. 12:23 yanks fan: chapman for reynaldo lopez – who’s wins that trade? 12:23 Dave Cameron: The Yankees. 12:23 JD: When do you think all of the trade action really begins? We’ve had a couple of deals, but no frenzy like I always anticipate in the last couple weeks of July 12:23 Dave Cameron: I’d bet stuff starts to happen this weekend. 12:23 Oliver: What do you suspect the Cards punishment will be? 12:24 Dave Cameron: Loss of something like 3-5 first round picks, but bans on signing international free agents for some extended period of time, and a huge fine. 12:26 Mike: Zack Cozart seems like a good trade piece but can’t seem to find a fit. What are your thoughts on value and potential fit ? Maybe off season target ? 12:26 Dave Cameron: Yeah, no buyers really looking for an SS right now. 12:26 Anthony: Buy/Sell/Hold: Pirates at 19% to make the playoffs? 12:26 Dave Cameron: Sell. 12:26 Erik: The trade mystery that you wrote about–is that the sort of thing that happens all the time and always falls through, so we rarely hear about it? Or were the Cubs really up to something noteworthy and weird and potentially big? 12:26 Dave Cameron: Lots of teams try weird stuff that doesn’t work. 12:27 Nelson: In your Espinoza article you stated that his value lies lower than his 15-ranking due to how far away he is, but dont prospect ranking take risk into consideration? If he was doing what he is doing at AAA he’d be top 10. 12:27 Dave Cameron: Prospect analysts undervalue risk. And yes, if he was pitching in Triple-A as an 18 year old, he’d be a monster prospect, but he’s not. That’s like saying if Andrew Benintendi had Bryce Harper’s power, he’d be in the big leagues already. 12:28 LarryA: Espinoza may fall into the 11-20 bucket of prospects, but with the minor league season 2/3 done and 3-4 propects expected to graduate before the next preseason list (depending on list criteria) barring a devestating injury in the final month and a half, he will definitely be closer to 9 than 20 on the next list. 12:30 Dave Cameron: The BA midseason Top 100 excluded all 2016 draftees, so a decent chance a few of those guys jump in front of him. And, realistically, Espinoza hasn’t done enough to justify even being ranked as highly as he is now, much less being ranked in the top 10. The risks here are astronomical. 12:31 Bruce: We like to make a lot of fun fake trade proposals for 2 players from one team getting moved together (Lucroy+Braun, Chapman+Beltran, etc) but is there any real precedent for 2 good players getting moved together at the deadline? 12:31 Dave Cameron: Samardzija and Hammel to the A’s. 12:31 Eric Weinstein: Do you think the Cubs would trade Schwarber for Teheran? Your trade value list would imply that they should. But I highly doubt that they would. (you’ve always been low on him IMO) 12:32 Dave Cameron: The Cubs don’t need an SP, so there’s no real incentive for them to make that particular trade. But if they just cared about value, they should absolutely make that deal. Cubs fans can think I’m low on him all they want, but he’s reached the point where he’s the most overrated young player the game has seen in years. 12:33 Michael Scarn: Your defense of the Pommy deal was definitely reasonable, but as a Red Sox fan, it’s crazy to me that we’ve won 3 World Series in the past 12 years, and yet we’re still making huge win-now moves that indicate ownership needs to see a deep playoff run this year. Outside of any strict analytical analysis of the deal, I’d rather see a really exciting top prospect like Espinoza rise through the system and potentially be a franchise star, rather than have a 5% better chance of winning the WS in 2016. 12:34 Dave Cameron: I’m pretty sure you’re in the minority on that one. 12:34 Rick C: Given the return for Pomeranz, what would you now see as a realistic return for Teheran? 12:34 Dave Cameron: I don’t think the Pomeranz trade did anything to change our valuations; it was a fair trade based on both players value. The Braves asking price for Teheran continues to be unreasonable. 12:35 Grant: What about Matz in the rumored Pomeranz deal? Pomeranz is probably a slight upgrade for this year and with Matz’s injury issues combined with the rest of the rotation’s injuries, I could see them being nervous about relying on him. 12:35 Dave Cameron: Mets aren’t flipping Matz for Pomeranz. 12:35 Guest: Should the Mariners do a full blown rebuild? 12:36 Dave Cameron: Don’t think they can stomach tearing it down while they still have Felix, Cano, and Cruz producing. Once those guys stop being good, then they’ll blow it up. 12:36 JD: I am very glad that the cubs are being very hesitant to give up Baez and Schwarber, both are potential super stars and pretty high floors, which makes them very valuable for near future. Definitely more valuable than a relief pitcher, even though they need one badly. 12:36 Dave Cameron: Javier Baez is now a high-floor player? I’m sorry, Cubs fans, but you’ve descended into madness on the valuation of your young hitters. 12:37 Krombopulous Michael: Personally I see Lucroy going to the Red Sox along with a reliever. Where do you see him ending up? 12:37 Dave Cameron: Boston or Texas. 12:38 Jim: i really want Lucroy and random Milw RP X in a Red Sox uniform to make the run for the division. Doesn’t Swihart Devers form the basis for that to be reality ? 12:38 Dave Cameron: Yep. 12:38 Dunt: Could Miguel Gonzalez or Zach Duke return a useful piece at the deadline? 12:38 Dave Cameron: Duke definitely could. Gonzalez, not really. 12:39 Joe: Dave, why does Carson pronounce the “lead” in “lead prospect writer” like the element and not the pronoun? It’s driving me nuts 12:39 Dave Cameron: He’s trying to drive you nuts. 12:39 I love when you call me big papi: I know he is a DH who can’t run and already gets a lot of attention, but can we admire David Ortiz’s absurd run over the last year+? Even just saying “yep, he is really good at hitting” in chat. Thanks! 12:39 Dave Cameron: Yep, he is really good at hitting. 12:40 JD: Why wouldn’t Ken Rosenthal release the name of the player the Cubs were looking to flip Pomeranz for? I know trades like this can still happen, but aren’t most GMs/execs in the know about other teams doing? 12:40 Dave Cameron: He doesn’t know who it is. 12:40 Guest: Bautista for Puig who says no? 12:40 Dave Cameron: Toronto. 12:41 kris: Why, exactly, would the Rays want to trade Archer? Isn’t that exactly someone a rebuilding team would want to have? 12:42 Dave Cameron: Pitchers peak early and decline fast. If they think this is going to take a few years, they might be better off cashing him in now before he loses value. 12:42 Jay: What team would get the greatest return on investment by trading for Chapman? 12:43 Dave Cameron: Washington. 12:43 Outta my way, Gyorkass: Lucroy + Will Smith for Gallo. Who says no, if either? 12:44 Dave Cameron: Texas. Think they’d only move Gallo for an SP. 12:45 Julio Pepper: I realize Correa has been historically great for a 21 year old, but are you still taking a hard under on his ZIPs projections? In particular, projecting him to be better than Mike Trout in three years seems crazy to me. Trout is literally almost 2x as good as him right now, and he’s 24. 12:45 Dave Cameron: Yeah, if I was betting, I’d take the under on the ZIPS forecast for Correa. I like him a lot, but projecting anyone as an +8 WAR player is tough. 12:46 Otis Redding: Dave Cameron, Anthopolous was loved until we realized he cleaned out everything over the years, and left us barren, and shorten our already small window! 12:47 Dave Cameron: I was up in Toronto in March, and people were still pining over him. 12:48 bryan: Do the Nats trade Lucas Giolito or Lopez at the deadline? I’m not sold on Giolito after his history of work in the minors and 2 starts with the Nats. And Lopez, while he appears to have the “stuff” seems appears to need a bit more work. 12:48 Dave Cameron: I don’t think they want to move either of those guys, but if they move one, Lopez more likely. 12:48 Jim: Here’s a name that fits mystery starter Cubs were after Blake Snell yes no maybe ? 12:48 Dave Cameron: Why would the Rays trade Snell for Pomeranz? 12:49 Alex: Do you think DeLeon fits in the Dodgers plans this season either in the rotation or pen? It seems like he could have started Thursday, seems like he’s showcasing in AAA for a trade 12:49 Dave Cameron: Unless they’re convinced he’s not healthy, he should be in the big leagues. 12:49 Clif Bar: Who is better offensively over the next 3-years: Ozuna, Mazara, or Lamb? 12:49 Dave Cameron: Lamb. 12:50 Blind Homer: Apparently Cashman is asking for Schwarber in any deal for Miller. In what world is Andrew Miller worth Kyle Schwarber, (who is controlled until 2022)? Is it delusional to think Schwarber could realistically become one of the top-10 hitters in baseball? 12:50 Dave Cameron: Yes. 12:50 Stu: I realize that Espinoza is much farther away than De Leon, but I would think Rosenthal’s source would have referred to De Leon as a “prospect,” too. 12:50 Dave Cameron: Certainly possible. There wasn’t any one obvious glaring answer. 12:51 Ryan: Will there be a write-up on the least valuable trade chips for this year? Seems like there might be some changes from last year, with Andrus, Verlander and (especially) Cano having been much more productive this year. 12:51 Dave Cameron: Yeah, I decided to push it to August, since the waiver period is when expensive guys get talked about in trade. 12:52 Grand Admiral Braun: In a Miller trade, should the Yankees gladly expect a haul similar to the one San Diego received from Boston in the Kimbrel deal? 12:52 Dave Cameron: More. Players cost more at the deadline. 12:53 Me: With Brantley suffering another setback, does Josh Reddick make sense for CLE? 12:53 Dave Cameron: Definitely. 12:53 Steve: Fagerstrom mentioned yesterday that Marlins might pull trigger on a Moncada/Fernandez 1 for 1…thoughts? 12:54 Dave Cameron: I don’t think they would. They’re in WC position, and they’re looking to add, not subtract. 12:54 Mike: Instead of trading for Pomeranz to flip for a new player, why wouldn’t they just have made a three-way trade? 12:55 Dave Cameron: Well, in the scenario where SD didn’t want to trade Pomeranz to a division rival, maybe CHC was trying to keep the second part from them so that they didn’t balk at the idea? This whole thing is just guessing, though. 12:55 Jeremy: Why do people consistently think the Dodgers are a bad team? 12:55 Dave Cameron: Because most fans evaluate a team by the quality of their best few players, and ignore most everyone from 11-25 on the roster. 12:56 Dave Cameron: And the LA writers like to bash them for not being star-driven. 12:56 K-Man: Has any of the writers in the saber community ever been asked to throw a ceremonial first pitch? Who would do best/worst? 12:56 Dave Cameron: Jonah Keri threw one out at the Staten Island Yankees nerd day in June. He got it over the plate. 12:56 jim : what are normal business hours for mlb front office? like when must they punch the clock everyday 12:57 Dave Cameron: Depends on their position, but for a standard baseball ops employee, they’re often in the office around 9 or 10, work til 6 or 7, and then if there’s a home game, they’re required to stick around for that too. 12:58 Dave Cameron: If the team is on the road, they get to work a little less, but often still have to go watch the minor league affiliates play, so it’s not like they stop working evenings during road trips. 12:58 Grand Admiral Braun: Gleyber Torres for Miller and Beltran? 12:58 Dave Cameron: You’re not getting Miller for Torres by himself. And they’re definitely not adding Beltran. 12:59 Tim: Not sure if you’ve mentioned this already, but I was just wondering, why are you moving to Oregon? Isn’t North Carolina booming? 12:59 Dave Cameron: Yes, it’s booming with oppressive heat and humidity. 1:00 Dave Cameron: (The wife got a better job in Oregon, and I was ready for a new adventure. Plus we’re getting much closer to my parents, we have their only grandkid.) 1:01 Tony: I know you’re getting a ton of question about Pomeranz, but do you think you could maybe diversify the pool of questions you answer? You’ve answered like five questions so far that have revolved around Drew Pomeranz. Not trying to sound rude or anything, love your chats, but it would be awesome to hear your excellent insight on other things that don’t involve Drew Pomeranz. 1:01 Dave Cameron: I’ve also bashed Kyle Schwarber a bunch. 1:02 Jerry: When you make a ridiculous statement like “(Schwarber) is the most overrated young player the game has seen in years”, what are you basing that on, exactly? From my perspective seems like a complete overreaction to some trade rumors, and perhaps a lot of crazy chat questions. Can’t possibly be based on anything substantial. 1:03 Dave Cameron: Right, the interactions that Cubs fans have been having with me regarding Schwarber over the last year aren’t substantial. It’s just a few crazy chat questions. That’s all. Nothing else. 1:04 Philip: Hey, Dave. Loved the trade value series. I was curious if Kenta Maeda ever came under consideration. He’s a little older than most of those other guys, but he’s on pace for a 4 win season and his contract is incredibly team friendly. 1:04 Dave Cameron: The medicals were apparently some of the worst teams have ever seen. Even pitching well, everyone expects his arm to just fall off at some point. 1:05 Dave Cameron: Which is why he signed the contract he did. 1:05 Chicago Mark: Is Puig not trad-able because of his attitude or his performance? Wouldn’t there be many GM’s AND coaching staffs that think they can turn him around? 1:06 Dave Cameron: He’s tradable, but just not for a lot in return. Teams are willing to take the risk on his health and personality when he’s hitting, but he hasn’t hit for a while now. 1:07 Brian: Trout for Bradley Jr and Moncada. Do the Angels even entertain it? 1:07 Dave Cameron: No. 1:07 Chip Douglass: You said in your trade value blurb about Seager last week that hardly anyone you knew in the game would take him over Correa. Why? Are people dreaming on Correa’s power? 1:08 Dave Cameron: It’s not just the power; he’s seen as the superior athlete too. 1:08 Eric Weinstein: Kyle Schwarber is going to be his generation’s Jim Thome 1:08 Dave Cameron: But yes, I’m totally making up the Cubs fans irrationality on him. 1:09 Dave Cameron: Alright, that’s going to do it for me this week. I think it’s pretty clear I need to write a Kyle Schwarber piece, so look for that tomorrow. 1:09 Dave Cameron: I’ll be back next week for the final pre-deadline chat.