Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/22/16

Nick: If you were Coppy, how would you handle Atlanta’s trade deadline?

Dave Cameron: I would absolutely trade both Teheran and Vizcaino for the best packages on the table. The risks of keeping both and seeing their value decline are simply too high. Moving both now for the best package of talent they can get is the right move for where the Braves are at.

Greg: What kind of return could Vizcaino give the Braves? I don’t think anyone expects a Giles-like return, but what’s reasonable?

Dave Cameron: It won’t be a Giles-type package, but he’ll be in high demand. I could see him going for more than any other non-Miller reliever available.

James Dean: Do you think a Beltran to the Astros trade makes sense, and what type of prospect would he fetch?

Dave Cameron: That could be a decent fit, though I imagine a bunch of teams will be looking at Beltran.

Mark: Dodgers or the field on signing the next big international free agent?

Dave Cameron: Well next big IFA should be Yuliesky Gurriel, and while this didn’t stop them from signing Olivera, they don’t have a spot for him. Turner is still a good third baseman and looks healthy, while Utley has been plenty productive at 2B.

Dave Cameron: Toss in Kendrick and I don’t know where he’d play there, and presumably, he wants to play.

Daniel: Pick a shortstop for the next decade.

Dave Cameron: It’s so hard. There are so many of them. I leaned Correa pre-season, but might be slowly switching to Lindor.

Dave Cameron: But then there’s Correa and Bogaerts. And you could probably keep Machado at short.

Dave Cameron: So many shortstops…

Ronnie: What do you think Yuliesky gets? 3-4 years, 45ish million seem about right?

Dave Cameron: He’s 32 and hasn’t played in two years. I think the Olivera bust will hurt him. I’d bet it will be something like three years with an opt-out after two, maybe at $10M per year or something.

Ethan: If the Pirates keep struggling and fall further back in the chase for a Wild Card spot, what do you think a reasonable return for Melancon, Freese or anyone else you think they could shop? Thanks!

Dave Cameron: Melancon will be their primary trade chip if they sell, and they should get a real prospect for him, given that they could hit him with a QO if they don’t move him. Freese, Feliz, and Rodriguez will bring back lower level guys.

Slurms McKenzie: Mets could really use a super-utility player but finding a decent one with a plus-bat is almost impossible…but say the Pirates are out of it and decide they’re sellers, what would it take to get Josh Harrison? What other options are there really, maybe Emilio Bonifacio for basically nothing? Alexi Amarista?

Dave Cameron: Danny Valencia. It’s easy.

Kyle: What starting pitchers will be dealt this year? Market is super thin for quality rentals.

Dave Cameron: I think the A’s will trade Gray if he keeps pitching well over the next month. He’ll become the big fish.

Chuck: Have you started work on the trade value series yet? Looking forward to it.

Dave Cameron: I have. Spent some time with Sean Dolinar over the weekend working on making it more visually appealing, and am already working on who is making the cut. Think the top 10 this year is going to be much more difficult than usual. You have the great young shortstops, young stars like Bryant and Betts, the greatness of Syndergaard, underpriced aces like Sale and Bumgarner, plus some guy named Trout.

Dave Cameron: It’s going to be crowded up top.

James: Top 5 players in baseball in descending order, go.

Dave Cameron: Trout, Kershaw, Harper, Machado, Arrieta

Dave Cameron: Or maybe Donaldson over Arrieta, depending on the day.

thisisforreal: It used to say in the FanGraphs glossary that GB pitchers do poorly against FB hitters and FB pitchers do poorly against GB hitters. Why is this?

Dave Cameron: When a GB pitcher throws a pitch up in the zone, he’s more likely to have missed his spot, so it’s got a higher probability of being a centered pitch instead of a well located high fastball. FB pitchers command better up in the zone than GB pitchers, since they throw there more often.

Bork: How much is Bautista’s off-season stock lowering with this trip to the DL? Apparently he could be out for 1-2 months.

Dave Cameron: The fantasies of a five year contract are gone now. He might not even get four this winter.

Zorak: When considering signing Reyes, do you think the Mets are emboldened by looking over to the Bronx and seeing how little heat they’ve taken for Chapman?

Dave Cameron: Perhaps. But I still don’t know what Reyes does for the Mets. If they want to move Walker to third, just call up Herrera, who is better than Reyes. If you’re playing Reyes at 3rd, that’s a downgrade from Flores. Besides nostalgia for what he used to be, I don’t know why the Mets are considering Reyes.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: What does a hypothetical (and reasonable) Will Smith return look like?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how healthy teams think his knee is. The pitching through injury thing is going to lower his value, but if he’s dominant for the next month, they’ll get a nice haul.

Sir Nerdlington: The players have so many things they could go after in the new CBA (luxury tax, season length, salary minimums, rev share, etc.) but what do they really have to give in exchange? They’ve already agreed to drug testing/suspensions and domestic violence. Is this why there is no PR jockeying outside of service time manipulations? Players dealing with a weak hand?

Dave Cameron: International draft. The league really wants this, and can’t do it without the players.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: How do baseball postseason revenues get divvied out between players? Proportional to their salaries, or does each player get the same set amount per game?

Dave Cameron: They have postseason shares based on the team’s extra revenues (which depends on how many games they play), and then the players vote to determine who gets a full share, a half share, or no share.

J6takish: Can/Should MLB do anything about Lerners heavy use of deferred money to pass the buck onto the future owner?

Dave Cameron: No. The deferred money theoretically lowers the value of the franchise, as it’s basically debt on the books. So if the Lerners want to sell at some point, they’ll get less for the franchise than if they hadn’t deferred the money.

Shawn: The braves most obvious trade chip is Vizcaino. Knowing he will not create a return that Ken Giles produced for the phils, could the braves still get a top 100 prospect for him?

Dave Cameron: Sure. Prices for relievers at the deadline are very high, and he’s both cheap and controllable. I would think a top 100 guy and some other stuff might be on the table if there’s a bidding war.

James: Is Clayton Kershaw a literal god on a diamond

Dave Cameron: Over the last 365 days, he’s been worth nearly +12 WAR. That’s an inner-circle all-time great pitching season. This is peak-Pedro.

Paul: What team is most likely to get desperate enough to pay the price to land Teheran?

Dave Cameron: Well, the trick is going to be that Coppy has said they’re going to want MLB players back, not prospects. I think he’s pigeonholing himself and will get a worse return if he sticks to that requirement, because it limits the number of potential buyers. Texas is one of the few teams that will be in the market for an SP this summer and has excess MLB talent to trade.

Bryan: Do you feel that Rodon has the stuff to eventually become an ace?

Dave Cameron: Not really.

ssimo02: Dave, do you believe that Brandon Nimmo is a fair return for Danny Valencia?

Dave Cameron: No, I think the A’s could get more than that. I just mentioned Nimmo as an example of the type of prospect that the Mets have that would appeal to the A’s. I’d imagine it would have to be Nimmo+.

JJB: In the long term, do you think Maikel Franco looks like this year’s version, or last year’s version?

Dave Cameron: I’ve never been a huge fan. Lots of flaws there.

PaulyOH: What would be a realistic return the Reds could get on Jay Bruce? Figure an American League team more likely to get him?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’ll fit best with an AL team. He and Beltran will have the same market, probably.

Tony: I like Valencia, but wouldnt Nimmo benefit the Mets more? Solid defense, 5+ years of control, OBP. 400+, Slg 500+ in AAA.

Valencia, often injured, not that great 3b defensively. Will Valencia’s hitting out value his defense AND Nimmo’s projected MLB performance?

Dave Cameron: You don’t want to get too excited about hitting lines in Vegas. Nimmo is still an underpowered OF who relies on walks to drive his value at the plate. Odds are good he ends up as +1 to +2 WAR player.

Jeff Gannon: The Dodgers are 21st in pitcher-adjusted wRC+. You said in your last chat that they might want to trade for a pitcher, but don’t they need another bat?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know where they’d put another hitter. You can’t really bench Gonzalez and there aren’t many great 1Bs available. Turner, Seager, Utley, and Pederson are producing. Puig, Thompson, and Ethier give them corner OF options that should be decent. I guess you could swap out Grandal for Lucroy, but that’s not going to fix things by itself. Essentially, the Dodgers need Gonzalez and Puig to hit.

Thwerve: Cameron, walk-off single for the managing editor. Can we just call you Chief? Emotionally, how did it feel? What was your approach in the final at-bat? Did you go up expecting to get a hit or did you just try to put a good swing on it and put your trust in the statistics?

Dave Cameron: I was trying so hard to hit one to right field, because I was so pull heavy early in the game that Team RotoGraphs had all their defenders on the left side. I took the most extreme closed stance possible, tried like crazy to hit it to the right side… and still pulled it.

Aaron: If the Braves ate all of the Markakis contract could they net a solid prospect? Even Kelly Johnson landed a intriguing arm.

Dave Cameron: They could get that level of intriguing arm, maybe. He’s not worth much.

Guest: I came to baseball through sabrmetrics, so I have never not subscribed to the idea that lineup protection is a false concept. But you yourself have written about “challenging” hitters who haven’t shown they can make a pitcher pay. Why isn’t the decision to “challenge” a hitter influenced by context?

Dave Cameron: The argument for protection is that a hitter will perform better because pitchers are scared of the guy on deck. But if the result is that the batter in front of the great hitter gets on base *more often*, then the pitcher is actually setting himself up for even more trouble when the great hitter comes up. The entire theory rests on the idea that pitchers are stupid. They aren’t.

JTT: Does demond sign as a CF for his next contract or does he move back to SS?

Dave Cameron: The OF transition has been so successful that I don’t see any reason for him to ever move back.

Rainier Beer Comes Out Here: Any update on the CBA negotiations? How do you think the Qualifying Offer system will change (if at all)?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess it will go away or be significantly crippled.

Brian: If you’re the Braves, do you continue to settle for far-away prospects in trades or is it time to try and start adding controllable MLB help

Dave Cameron: You just get the best return you can.

Mark L: Pick one for the rest of their career- Thor or Jose Fernandez?

Dave Cameron: Thor.

CamdenWarehouse: Will the number of strong shortstops hurt their individual trade values?

Dave Cameron: No.

Sean: Brandon Drury to the Mets as an alternative to Valencia?

Dave Cameron: Sounds like Arizona is still very high on Drury, so unlikely.

Thatguy: Could you make an argument for Arenado to be the 5th best player in the big leagues?

Dave Cameron: Not a realistic one.

Phil: Is there a real chance Kershaw wins MVP again? I can’t believe how amazing this man is

Dave Cameron: If the season ended today, he should be a unanimous pick.

Michael: So if you think Gray will likely be traded, could we see a Gray–Hill package? Does any contender have a combination of that deep need for starting pitching as well as the chips to make such an exchange?

Dave Cameron: They’d be better off splitting them up.

Dooduh: You’re spot on with Valencia fitting the Mets but they won’t want to give up Nimmo now that he’s turned the corner. He was this regime’s first 1st rd draft pick in 2011. And they are thin in OFers in the system. Better fit is either Wilmer Flores or Dilson Herrera plus an arm.

Dave Cameron: There’s no real reason to think Nimmo’s “turned the corner”.

TheDudeofNY: I was moving during for the Fangraphs Staten Island meet up. Please lie to me and tell me it was terrible.

Dave Cameron: It was the worst.

Reggie: What do you think of Atlanta’s top 5-6 draft picks?

Dave Cameron: I generally think building around arms is a poor strategy.

Bork: Wow players vote to determine who gets no share? Would hate to get on the bad side of some of the clubhouse leader type players.

Dave Cameron: I’m fairly certain that all the guys who play regularly in the postseason get full shares. The half-shares go to guys who bounced up and down through the regular season and maybe didn’t play in October. I’m not 100% certain that I have it right, but I think that’s how it works, anyway.

Daniel: Harper is absolutely going to hit free agency, right?

Dave Cameron: Right.

Tom: Talk about the Marlins!

Dave Cameron: Given the Stanton and Chen performances this year, Loria might not ever spend money again.

Keith: Does Teheran have more value than Vizcaino?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

hscer: are the Braves in a position to have qualms about trading Vizcaino within the division

Dave Cameron: That matters less with relievers. The shelf life of RPs is so short that those guys won’t haunt you for a decade.

Who_Is_Zorbist?: What’s wrong with Jake McGee this year? His K’s overnight cut in half.

Dave Cameron: Seems pretty likely that his arm is shot.

Danny boy: Is Correa really better than Seager longterm? Seager has even been a better fielder by most metrics

Dave Cameron: They both look great. We don’t know enough to say for sure which one is likely going to be able to stay at SS long-term right now.

Guest: is it time for us to admit that michael pineda is the best pitcher in new york

Dave Cameron: Did the Mets relocate out of town?

Tacoma Aroma: Will there be a single metric that encompasses the most important information from statcast data?

Dave Cameron: Eventually, yeah.

Guest: If the Braves ate all of the Markakis contract how would it taste?

Dave Cameron: Bitter

Tacoma Aroma: What will be the Cubs’ biggest vulnerability in a playoff series?

Dave Cameron: Right now, it’s the middle relief. That’s why Andrew Miller is perfect for them.

Bork: Any ideas how the QO could change? There needs to be some kind of solution. The last system (A. B.) was terrible and the QO system is hated by the union.

Dave Cameron: The players want it to just go away entirely. If they make enough other concessions, I think that could happen. If they end up keeping the system in some form, I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned into a multi-year offer, instead of a one year.

Micah: Is the success Kyle Hendricks is having sustainable even without a portfolio of wipeout stuff?

Dave Cameron: His stuff is underrated because he doesn’t throw hard. The change-up is excellent, one of the very best in baseball.

Ray: What is the likelihood that the Dodgers make Kenley Jansen available before 7/31?

Dave Cameron: 0%

Sam: Is there a case for Kershaw over Trout as greatest current player?

Dave Cameron: You could make a case that Kershaw is as valuable on the field right now. But Trout’s been at this level for 4-5 years, so track record still pushes things towards Trout. But this version of Kershaw, like what he’s doing now, is more valuable than even peak Trout.

VanExellent: Where would you put the odds that the Dodgers end the season with the Cy Young, MVP and Rookie of the Year? Better than 50%?

Dave Cameron: Odds of injury are probably high enough that I’d go under 50%. But if we stipulate that Kershaw and Seager are going to stay healthy, then yes.

Jack: Who will be the ace of the Phillies in 2 years, Nola or VV?

Dave Cameron: I doubt VV will even be an SP in two years.

VanExellent: Are Corey Seager and Kris Bryant about equal in terms of value?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, they’re in the same range.

Dooduh: There’s plenty of reason to think that Nimmo has turned the corner. He’s having one of the best seasons of any prospect in AAA (controlled for age). Sure, he’s not going to OPS .900 in the majors, but that doesn’t mean he lacks solid fwd value. As I said, positionally, the Mets are thin in OFers and are likely to lose Cespedes. That means Nimmo is valuable to them.

Dave Cameron: He’s in Vegas and is running a .400 BABIP. You are overstating his season.

Jerry: What’s wrong with Addison Russell?

Dave Cameron: Low-ish contact/moderate power guys are generally not great hitters. He’s a nice player because of the defense at a premium position, but without some significant improvements, he’s not going to become the superstar people were hoping for.

Steve: Marco Estrada: overrated or underrated in your opinion?

Dave Cameron: Overrated by Jays fans, underrated by fans of everyone else.

Daniel: For a player like Russell… Should the effort be to improve plate discipline and contact rates, or sacrifice some of that for improving power? Obviously, it isn’t that easy, but…

Dave Cameron: Probably different for every player. I don’t know enough about swings and physical adjustments to know which one Russell is more likely to be able to improve. But without improvement in one of the two areas, his offensive upside is limited.

Bart: Why is Starlin Castro not the hitter he used to be during the first couple of season’s with the Cubs?

Dave Cameron: His strikeout rate eroded. He was a high-contact guy, and now he’s close to a league average strikeout guy. Same deal with Russell, to an extent; guys with this kind of power can’t strike out this often and be good hitters.

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to do some writing. We’ll do it again next week.