Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/7/17 by Dave Cameron June 7, 2017 12:01 Dave Cameron: Well, looks like WordPress decided not to post the chat this morning. 12:02 Dave Cameron: Once I get that fixed and get the post up, I’ll give you guys a little bit of time to get some questions into the queue, and then we’ll begin a bit late today. 12:30 Dave Cameron: Alright, sorry for the delay this week everyone. 12:31 Dave Cameron: We’re working on getting the back-end weirdness resolved. 12:31 Dave Cameron: But let’s chat baseball for the next hour or so. 12:31 Grant: What do you think Jean Segura would’ve gotten on the open market? 12:33 Dave Cameron: I put up a post on his extension (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jean-segura-and-the-mariners-are-bettin…), but it depends entirely on how much of this BABIP surge he could have sustained. As an okay defensive SS heading towards 30, his big pitch in FA is that he could really hit, though the track record on that is spotty. If he were an FA today, I’d think maybe 5/$75M, something like that. If he kept hitting for the next 18 months, 6/$100M maybe. 12:33 Dave Cameron: There’s definitely some potential for this to be a bargain if Segura keeps his average up, but there’s also plenty of risk if the BABIP falls and he looks like an okay hitter instead. 12:34 Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Any thoughts on the Derek Norris situation? 12:35 Dave Cameron: We don’t know enough to have strong opinions at this point. 12:35 Dave Cameron: If the allegations prove true, then he’s probably done in MLB. 12:35 Dave Cameron: Or at least, he should be. 12:36 LegallyEagle: Any chance MLB will weigh in regarding foreign language speaking baseball players? It’s a regrettable to still have to hear comments like Remy’s and Schmidt’s. 12:37 Dave Cameron: The broadcast booth is one area where the game hasn’t changed a lot yet. I would imagine this will change, and networks and organizations will both be more sensitive to hiring people who don’t say insanely stupid things into a microphone. 12:37 Dave Cameron: A great way to help cut down on comments like this would be to hire from outside the pool of “former MLB player” exclusively. 12:38 Big Tuna: You think Newcomb is up to stay in ATL? What do you expect of him? 12:38 Dave Cameron: Reminds me of a left-handed Tyler Glasnow. Strikeouts are nice, but you have to be able to get ahead of hitters in the big leagues. 12:38 Dave Cameron: If he can throw strikes, there’s obvious upside. But I’m generally skeptical of these guys. 12:39 Big Tuna: Giles had another rough outing in HOU. With them contending, how long is his leash? Harris was good in that role last year. 12:39 Dave Cameron: Giles is fine. The last thing the Astros need is another reliever. That bullpen is excellent. 12:40 Frankie: Dave, your “Hot Take” on the Segura signing, please? 12:40 Dave Cameron: He’s better than I gave him credit for when Arizona acquired him. He’s not as good as his numbers since. 12:40 Guest: Are you worried about Jacob Degrom? 12:40 Dave Cameron: Well he’s a Mets pitcher, so I assume he probably has the plague or something. 12:41 Dave Cameron: But while the ERA is bad, it’s all BABIP and HR/FB. Strikeouts are up, velo is fine. Probably just missing his spots right now. 12:42 Terry Collins’ Pen: What kind of contract do you feel Lucas Duda will be able to get on the open market this year? If you’re Sandy Alderson, do you trade him at the deadline, look to sign him, or just let him walk and hand the reigns over to Dominic Smith? 12:43 Dave Cameron: He’ll be selling his age 32-3x seasons, has a long history of back problems, and has played 150 games in a season exactly once. The market wasn’t kind to these guys last winter. Maybe he gets 2/$20M? 12:44 Matt: Joey Gallo is sticking with the big league team this entire season at this point, right? 12:44 Dave Cameron: Yeah, no reason to send him down to play their alternatives. 12:44 Sam: Please talk me down from this ledge regarding Tanaka. Time to put him on the DL with a phantom injury? 12:45 Dave Cameron: Still missing bats, so there’s hope. But yeah, probably give him a start off from throwing BP at this point. 12:46 Erbin Lejind: Alright, no reason to beat around the bush, is the ball juiced or are we just in a real lowpoint for pitching… or both? Pitching, with few exceptions seems to be having a rough year all around the league. The idea that the league needs to “fix” the lack of offense seems laughable now. 12:47 Dave Cameron: League wOBA is .318, same as it was last year, and only a little above the bottomed-out levels of 2014. This is still well below normal levels of offense from the last ~30 years. HRs are way up, but so are Ks, so overall offense isn’t going nuts. It’s just a very different type of game now. 12:48 Joe Douglas: Happy Wednesday, Dave. Do teams run into potential issues with using statcast data on potential draft picks? Certainly it’s better to have the data than not. Take spin rate for example. My understanding is that teams only have it for a portion of the draftable population. Is there potential that teams run into issues of over-committing to players with more data available, while ignoring similarly good players who just don’t play in parks that have trackman installed? 12:49 Dave Cameron: Hi Joe. Generally, the Trackman parks at the amateur levels are at showcase events, so I’m not sure the issue is that different from pre-Trackman days. There was always a question of whether the showcase circuit guys were being over evaluated relative to kids in the northeast who scouts couldn’t see as often. 12:50 LambChop85: Can I get excited about Robbie Ray now? 12:50 Dave Cameron: Yes. 12:50 Matt: Two years ago, I was getting really annoyed watching national broadcasts of the Cubs and the way Analysts would slob all over Schwarber. I’m currently getting the same feelings about Judge – and I’m a Yankee fan. 12:51 Dave Cameron: Any good NY player is going to get overexposed. It’s just part of the deal. But Aaron Judge is good, and has a significantly better future than Schwarber. 12:51 Mo Vaughn: In 1324 career PA, Addison Russell has an 89 wRC+ and .305 wOBA. Going forward, is he a below-average offensive player, or do you expect that he’ll end up average or slightly better? 12:52 Dave Cameron: Those PAs came from 21-23. Almost everyone hits better from 24 on than they do at those ages. 12:52 _David_: I know they are beating up on mediocrity and are all injured, but, do you see the Mariners as having any decent shot at the WC? 12:52 Dave Cameron: The AL is the land of mediocrity, so sure, simply because it’s not clear what non-division winners are going to run away with anything. 12:52 Trent: If the Reds can’t trade Cozart because no one needs a SS, should they try to extend him or just make a QO? 12:53 Dave Cameron: There are teams that need an SS. If they keep him, they’ve screwed up, most likely. 12:53 Mark: Assuming you can’t just say “Fire Matheny” as it seems he’s been given immunity by ownership, how would you go about revamping/blowing up the Cardinals? As a Redbird fan, I’m read for a good blowing up as I’m resigned to Matheny sticking around. 12:54 Dave Cameron: I’m not so sure it’s that easy to blow this roster up. Yadi isn’t going anywhere, Wainwright is untradeable, you’re not moving Fowler a few months into a five year deal, you just extended Martinez… 12:54 Dave Cameron: Who do you trade? Gyorko, I guess? Lynn? You’re still going to have an older team. 12:56 spencer: Who gets called first – Brinson, Rosario, Torres, Devers – and when you thinking they’ll get the call? 12:56 Dave Cameron: Rosario is probably the first of that group to come up. 12:56 Bob: I know he’s been terrible, but could the Cardinals get anything for Jhonny Peralta? 12:56 Dave Cameron: Not really. 12:57 connor: Why don’t the phillies promote nick williams? they got to see whether he is able to handle the ml pitching. they got nothing to lose 12:57 Dave Cameron: Rhys Hoskins is the guy they should be promoting. 12:58 Dave Cameron: Tommy Joseph is a platoon guy. Hoskins could be really good. 12:59 Chaco Chicken: Am I imagining things or are walks way up this season? 12:59 Dave Cameron: 8.7%, up from 8.2% last year, and 7.7% the year before that. 12:59 Tor: Who is closer to being a legitimate contender: Twins or Brewers? 12:59 Dave Cameron: Brewers 1:00 Mr. Bob Dobalina: Choose one: Carlos Beltran goes into the Hall of Fame as a (A) Royal (B) Met (C) Blank cap (D) visitor with a paid ticket. 1:00 Dave Cameron: B 1:00 Scott: At this time next week, Amed Rosario will be in the majors- true or false? 1:00 Dave Cameron: True. Super Two deadline is passing, so we’ll see a rash of promotions soon. 1:01 Al: Would there be some logic to Washington making a big splash at the trade deadline? Darvish? 1:01 Dave Cameron: Would guess they’ll get a closer and maybe an outfielder. 1:01 Blah: The Dodgers are just using the 10 day DL to have a 7 man rotation aren’t they? 1:01 Dave Cameron: Yup. 1:02 Go Rays: Odorizzi for Schwarber, does this frame of a trade get done? 1:02 Dave Cameron: Don’t think Odorizzi is good enough for Cubs to consider that. 1:02 toki: Man the NL East looks like a steaming pile behind the Nationals. Are they for real or just a good team in a junk division? 1:02 Dave Cameron: Those things aren’t mutually exclusive. 1:03 Cedric: What’s a realistic timetable for the White Sox? Do you think they plan to contend in 2020? 1:03 Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s probably the hope. Maybe 2019 if things go right. 1:05 Joe: Whats wrong with Kyle Hendricks….was last year just a fluke season 1:05 Dave Cameron: Big difference between 86 and 88. 1:05 Dave Cameron: He needs those two ticks back. 1:05 Pete: Re: the Marlins selling, I wonder if Stanton has yet realized that he’ll stuck on a crappy team for his entire career, or at least during his prime? 1:05 Dave Cameron: Well he has an opt-out so he’s not really stuck. 1:05 RMR: Obviously Zack Cozart isn’t **this** good. But since the start of 2015, he’s been a markedly better player — 4.6 WAR/600 over 950 PA, including sustaining his defensive excellence. What kind of contract is he looking at heading in to FA as a 32-year old? Is 4/60 too high? Too low? 1:06 Dave Cameron: Too high. Don’t think teams are going to buy the power spike outside of CIN, and teams are not paying for older players. He’s not getting more than Zobrist. I’d say best case is 3/$40M or something. 1:07 CamdenWarehouse: Do you think that the booth will be the next frontier for advanced analysis? 1:08 Dave Cameron: No. Broadcasters are still talking mostly to casual fans, people watching with kids, folks who are there to root for their team and not dissect what is going on. I don’t think it would make the game more accessible to the masses to have discussions of analytics regularly occurring. 1:08 Dave Cameron: That said, I do think broadcasters owe it to their audience to educate themselves, understand what is really happening, know who is good and bad, and relate those truths to the viewers. 1:08 Dave Cameron: They just don’t have to do it with nerdy words. 1:09 Dan the Mets Fan: Can Addison Reed and Lucas Duda bring back top 100 prospects? Back end for Lucas, mid for Reed? Or is that too much? 1:09 Dave Cameron: Too much. 1:10 Moltar: “Judge is good, and has a significantly better future than Schwarber” This might be true, but shouldn’t we wait for Judge’s first cold streak to truly evaluate this? Unless you truly believe he is Trout 2.0, his sample size is still small and at some point the league will adjust, and we will get to see if Judge can adjust to that. We’ve seen Conforto go through this, and Schwarber still needs to make that adjustment himself. 1:11 Dave Cameron: We can say things about rookies with some confidence, even in SSS. He hits the ball really hard; that isn’t going to change. Guys with this kind of power don’t have to make contact at high levels to be good hitters. He can play the field. There’s just more natural ability here than with Schwarber. 1:13 Brad: Will Moncada be in the rash of promtions? 1:13 Dave Cameron: He’s cooled off a lot after a hot start. Sounds like the D at second is still rough. I wouldn’t be surprised if they kept him down until after the trade deadline. 1:14 JG Wentworth: True/False: Theo will trade one of Baez, Happ, or Schwarber to get a SP this summer? 1:14 Dave Cameron: I’ll guess true. 1:15 Justin: My father can’t get over the idea of WAR. He keeps asking how do we know what a replacement player would do when all replacement players aren’t equal. How do I respond and what do I tell him? 1:16 Dave Cameron: Replacement players aren’t the same, but their overall value is similar. James Loney is super different from Brendan Ryan, but if you want a veteran for the league minimum, this is what you get. 1:17 Daniel: Biggest difference in the game in 5 years? 1:18 Dave Cameron: At this point, I don’t see how MLB slows down the velocity trend, and if we get to a point where everyone throws 95-100, they’ll have to legitimately consider whether the game is tenable without an intervention. So maybe the mound gets lowered again? Something along those lines. 1:19 Mike: I’m a Royals fan and I acknowledge that speculating about Jason Vargas’ trade value makes me a fan of the franchise with the worst long term outlook in baseball. That being said, what will Jason Vargas fetch the Royals in a trade? 1:19 Dave Cameron: Probably a toolsy outfielder who isn’t hitting but has upside if he does. 1:19 Todd Van Poppel: WIll Franklin Barreto be part of the rash of callups? 1:20 Dave Cameron: Not sure where he plays. Lowrie is crushing it, Pinder is crushing it, Semien will be back in a bit. Would imagine Barreto has to wait for Lowrie to get traded. 1:20 Dave Cameron: Alright, going to have to wrap it up to get some work done before the podcasts get recorded. 1:20 Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out today, everyone.