Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/2/15
| 11:25 |
: Chatting on Thursday this week because Kiley happened to be in NC yesterday and wanted to grab lunch, so this all feels a bit strange. And to make it even stranger, we’re going to start and end a little early today; the queue is now open, and we’ll go from 11:45 to 12:45.
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| 11:46 |
On a scale of negative billion to +10, how surprised would you be to learn that Chris Davis and Ian Desmond lead MLB with four 4-strikeout games? |
| 11:47 |
: I certainly wouldn’t have expected Desmond to be on there over guys like George Springer.
|
| 11:47 |
Can we expect this to get weird? We are used to weird on Thursdays. |
| 11:48 |
: Next Thursday, the weird will return, I’m sure.
|
| 11:48 |
Eno’s piece on the submarine riser got me wondering. Do you think there are effective pitches not yet invented?
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| 11:48 |
: Yeah, almost certainly. I don’t think there’s any reason to think that every possible effective pitch has been discovered already.
|
| 11:48 |
Will the White Sox be active sellers come trade deadline? If so, do you think Alexei Ramirez gets moved? |
| 11:49 |
: Yeah, they have to realize their season is over at this point. I’d bet Samardzija, Ramirez, and maybe Robertson get moved.
|
| 11:49 |
Thoughts on Sano being called up? How excited should Twins fans be? |
| 11:50 |
: He’s not going to stop the upcoming free fall, but he’ll probably be one of their better hitters going forward.
|
| 11:50 |
So many articles starting to surface about what the Red Sox should do at the deadline, from trading Hanley, Pablo, Napoli and even Buchholz. What do you see them doing? |
| 11:50 |
: I doubt we see any major moves. Maybe they’ll send Koji to a contender or something, but any major overhauls will happen this winter.
|
| 11:51 |
Who would say no in a hypothetical trade of Mike Trout for Bryant and Rizzo? |
| 11:51 |
: The Cubs.
|
| 11:51 |
Is Seattle ruining Trumbo? I know he wasn’t an amazing player before, but he was at least productive in Arizona. |
| 11:52 |
: He’s productive when he hits homers and useless when he doesn’t. Guys like this run hot and cold.
|
| 11:53 |
Say a team takes Cueto+all of Phillips’ contract. Is that about an even trade for Cincinnati? |
| 11:54 |
: Phillips has 2/27 left on his deal after this year, is probably worth like 2/18 or something in that range. The Reds should be able to do better than $10 million in value for Cueto. The draft pick they’d get as compensation from letting him walk as an FA is worth something in that range by itself.
|
| 11:54 |
how was your lunch with kiley? |
| 11:54 |
: We had a good time. At least half of it was comparing rumors we’ve heard about the D’Backs front office bungles. There are so many of those!
|
| 11:55 |
will myers ever play 140+? |
| 11:55 |
: Ever? Sure. I think even Nick Johnson got to 140 once, right?
|
| 11:55 |
You wrote yesterday that the Padres should go for it? Does this mean they should be buyers? If so, who should they look for? Should they be aggressive or just look to tinker so as not to dig a deeper hole? |
| 11:56 |
: If they can make some small upgrades that don’t cost them much talent, then yeah. Try to buy low on Alexei Ramirez or a reasonable MLB third baseman.
|
| 11:56 |
Who’s next in line for a total teardown/rebuild? |
| 11:56 |
: The Brewers.
|
| 11:57 |
Let’s say the Blue Jays pull off a huge trade in the next two weeks. What do you think that trade is? |
| 11:57 |
: Every good young talent they have for Cueto/Chapman.
|
| 11:57 |
What would the return on a deal for Cueto look like? Two top 50’s+, or less because he’s just a rental? |
| 11:58 |
: Definitely less than that. Rentals are more like one back-end top 100 guy and some filler.
|
| 11:59 |
Are you of the mindset that small market teams should go for it all in one year, or continue trying to extend their “window”? Seems like the all in approach is too high a risk for small market teams. |
| 11:59 |
: I think the marginal gains to be made by going “all in” are generally pretty small. The most you can ever really move the needle is a few percentage points.
|
| 12:00 |
Regarding white sox trading Robertson or for instance Padres trading Shields. Unless they eat some money the return would be pretty minimal right? I realize teams are more clear on where they are this year and you can’t sign someone to help you out mid season. But the players aren’t suddenly worth a ton more than the top bidder was willing to pay them 6 months ago right? |
| 12:00 |
: Supply is gone, demand is up. Yes, guys who are performing well are worth more than what they signed for in the off-season. It’s a different market.
|
| 12:01 |
Do you think the Orioles will hold on to first or do you see Tampa, Toronto or NY breaking free? |
| 12:01 |
: I’ll pick the Blue Jays out of that group.
|
| 12:01 |
If the Mariners continue to do poorly, do you think they have any assets they will try to sell? |
| 12:02 |
: Unlikely. You don’t push in on Cano, Cruz, and Felix’s prime, then turn around and rebuild.
|
| 12:02 |
: Like the Padres to some degree, they’re committed to their course.
|
| 12:03 |
White Sox fans are clamoring for a tear-down, but I’m not so sure this isn’t still part of the rebuild. Samardzija was always a rental, but the price wasn’t high, and they’ll get a prospect or comp pick back. La Roche was only a 2-year deal. Danks expires after next year. The only market-rate assets left after that are Melky and Robertson. Am I correct that the White Sox best course of action is “stay the course”? To try to get a bit better every year and just stick in that WC hunt? |
| 12:03 |
: I’m in the blow it up camp. You just need more above average players than they have in order to win.
|
| 12:04 |
As a Phillies fan, how frustrated should I be that they blew past their 7/2 pool only signing two players? Especially with the money the Dodgers are throwing around… |
| 12:04 |
: Not every team has the Dodgers money.
|
| 12:04 |
Why doesn’t Carson do chats? What would they be like? Can we make that happen? |
| 12:04 |
: He does live blogs on Opening Day and during the postseason. They’re… Carsonish.
|
| 12:04 |
On a scale from 1 to dumb, how dumb is the Angels firing their GM? |
| 12:04 |
: They didn’t fire him; he quit.
|
| 12:05 |
So many people suggesting Kazmir is going to be traded, but the A’s are only 6 games out of the Wild Card. We’ve seen teams be buyers as much as 8 games out. Is it still reasonable to expect the A’s to sell even though they’re record is much worse than their play would suggest? |
| 12:05 |
: Depends how they play over the next 3 weeks or so. They’re good enough to climb back in it, but I’d expect Billy Beane will want to be within 3 or 4 games to keep this together.
|
| 12:06 |
Who has the best rotation in baseball for the next 5 years? |
| 12:06 |
: Whichever team doesn’t have all their pitchers get hurt. The easy pick is the Mets, but even they only have like a 5% chance of actually being the team with the best rotation going forward.
|
| 12:07 |
Does it really make sense for a Wild Card contender to trade for anyone except someone who can make a definite difference in a single game as opposed to say +1.0 WAR over the course of the RoS? |
| 12:07 |
: I think you try to make your roster better without acquiring someone who won’t play in that game. So you don’t necessarily acquire for the game itself, but if you already have an ace, don’t get another SP.
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| 12:07 |
Does Dalton Pompey work as the main piece for the Jays to land Johnny Cueto? I assume the Jays would need to add some complimentary pieces, but Pompey fits as that roughly “back-end, top 100” guy. He’s also close to the majors, which should appeal to the Reds who don’t seem to want to completely rebuild. Plus, the Jays may be okay relying on Pillar in CF for the near-term. |
| 12:08 |
: Dalton Pompey isn’t very good, and the Reds already have a can’t-hit-CF.
|
| 12:08 |
Smoak goes to the Blue Jays and suddenly is useful. My guess is the same thing will happen with Ackley wherever he ends up. What the hell is going on with the M’s development? |
| 12:08 |
: They suck at it.
|
| 12:09 |
Is there anyone on the current Brewers MLB roster you’d be opposed to trading if you were Doug Melvin? |
| 12:09 |
: Nope. They should burn that thing down.
|
| 12:09 |
Wouldnt it make sense to sign a bunch of guys in the offseason with the intention of selling them around the deadline? Make a “profit” by benefitting from the value youve got plus whatever you get in a trade. Do teams do this? |
| 12:10 |
: The profit will be eaten into by the fact that a good chunk of the guys you sign will lose value and you’ll waste money on them. So maybe you sign 4 guys and flip 2, but you have to keep the other 2 even though they aren’t helping you.
|
| 12:10 |
: But yeah, non-contenders have been doing this with relievers forever.
|
| 12:10 |
Could you see an Alexei Ramirez for Alexi Amarista sub getting the Pads into Wild Card 2? |
| 12:10 |
: No, they need a lot more than that. And some luck.
|
| 12:11 |
It sure looks like he was forced out |
| 12:12 |
: They tried to get him to stay. He didn’t want to work with Scioscia anymore.
|
| 12:12 |
Isn’t there a middle ground, don’t the M’s have quite a few pieces to sell that if they did so, it still wouldn’t be an all-out rebuild |
| 12:12 |
: Not really, no.
|
| 12:12 |
: You’re not getting anything for Austin Jackson at this point. Seth Smith would get you a low level minor leaguer or something. J.A. Happ, same deal.
|
| 12:13 |
Is there a simple explanation to why some batters are patient and take a lot of walks, and some don’t? I assume it’s some combination of “ability to recognize pitch” + “confidence in knowing what you can hit” + 4 other things I don’t know |
| 12:14 |
: Vision is part of it, but I think it’s pretty heavily tied to how players were taught. It’s a developed skill more than an innate trait.
|
| 12:14 |
Brad Miller …. I have a feeling he’s the next Mike Moustakas. We will continue to experience blah and then when we have all given up….. KABOOOOM! |
| 12:14 |
: He’s on pace for a +3.5 WAR season. Why have you given up?
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| 12:15 |
In light of yesterday’s JABO article, what kind of return would the Pads need to get back for J Upton to justify selling him? Would this quality of return be possible even in this seller’s market? |
| 12:15 |
: I think they’d have to find someone who was willing to take one of their big contracts too. You’re dumping his brother’s whole contract in that deal, but maybe some crazy person takes most of it, and then you actually have some flexibility to re-spend this winter.
|
| 12:16 |
If the Padres could trade half a season of Upton for a year and a half of someone else, like Boston did last year with Lester and Cespedes, would you approve? |
| 12:16 |
: Sure. I don’t know what that deal would be, though.
|
| 12:17 |
What type of pitcher can the Yankees pick up without giving up Judge/Severino? Mike Leake possibility? |
| 12:17 |
: Those guys are good enough that you could probably take them off the table and still be in play for even a guy like Cueto. But you’d have to give up multiple things, not just one and filler.
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| 12:18 |
Can batters learn patience as they age, or are they pretty much what they are approach-wise? |
| 12:18 |
: Yeah, walk rate is one of those things that peaks very late in a player’s career. It’s definitely learned as they go.
|
| 12:18 |
Can Ackley still play 2B? Cashman would like to try his Montero-Pineda game again. |
| 12:19 |
: Yeah, he was a pretty good defender at 2B. I’d imagine someone will move him back there and find he’s still a perfectly useful player outside of Seattle.
|
| 12:19 |
Dave, how do you survive the heat/humidity and the fascination with cars driving around in circles? |
| 12:19 |
: Air Conditioning, and ignore it.
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| 12:20 |
Kluber/Bauer/Carrasco/Salazar/Anderson: Is there a better young starting five in all of baseball? |
| 12:20 |
: I’ll take the Mets group.
|
| 12:20 |
What are your thoughts on the Astros trading for Kazmir? Obviously hes a 1 year rental, as the Astros have said they wanted, and hes from Houston which might increase his likelihood of signing there. However, Kazmir has a history of fading as the season progresses. Is it worth the risk gambling on him, especially if you have to give up a prospect like Singleton to get him? |
| 12:21 |
: He’s a perfect fit for them. And Singelton isn’t so special that you’d really hate to give him up.
|
| 12:21 |
Speaking of the Mariners being completely incompetent at talent development (despite Jack Z’s reputation for that finding talent and what not)—what would it take for them to finally cut Jack Z/this front office? Missing the playoffs? Losing record? |
| 12:21 |
: I think 2014 bought them all a few more years. They’ll need to flop again next year before anyone is getting fired.
|
| 12:21 |
What is Francisco Lindor’s offensive ceiling? Does he have upper tier shortstop potential, or has his prospect value always been primarily tied to his defense? |
| 12:22 |
: High contact, some walks, low power. Probably league average hitter or somewhere in that range. If he’s a plus defender, that’s a very good player.
|
| 12:22 |
Are you buying the Matt Carpenter comparisons for Matt Duffy? |
| 12:23 |
: Not at all.
|
| 12:23 |
So is it safe to say that Pederson is clearly better than Bryant now? |
| 12:23 |
: Nope.
|
| 12:23 |
Do you think Oakland has a preference for quantity over quality in trade hauls, or that’s just the way a couple trades look? |
| 12:23 |
: I think they realize that you’re generally better off getting four guys at 90% of the value of one guy than one big flashy name.
|
| 12:24 |
I was a little disappointed by the tone of your Dave Stewart article. You may disagree with the guy, but that doesn’t mean he is incompetent |
| 12:24 |
: I gave him far more of the benefit of the doubt than he’s earned.
|
| 12:25 |
Thoughts on how the Rangers addresses their rotation going forward? It’s hard to count on everyone (or even most) of the Darvish/Harrison/Perez/Darvish group coming all the way back, but do you really want to invest heavily in SP when you’ve got so many potential options? |
| 12:25 |
: They shouldn’t be investing heavily in 2015 regardless.
|
| 12:25 |
: They should be trying to sell high on Prince Fielder while they still can.
|
| 12:26 |
Do you think there’s value to the notion of a franchise player? When I think back on the A’s last fifteen years, the only person who really pops out is Giambi. I realize this is the hazard of running a low budget team, but do you think they’re hurting themselves at all with constant churn? Something nice about Chipper, Lance Berkman, etc. |
| 12:27 |
: Yeah, I do think there’s value to be had in having franchise icons, guys going into the Hall of Fame with your team’s cap on, being able to have legends games and such. But it’s not so important that you prioritize it over winning games.
|
| 12:27 |
: The ideal is to have both. Oakland can’t have both.
|
| 12:27 |
Are the Tigers buyers or sellers? |
| 12:27 |
: Buyers.
|
| 12:28 |
JA Happ doesn’t come across like a very overwhelming player, but he’s somehow been worth 0.2 WAR less than Felix. Given the cost of wins, shouldn’t he be worth a QA? |
| 12:29 |
: If you’re paying J.A. Happ $17 million next year, you’ve made a huge mistake.
|
| 12:29 |
One year later, what are your thoughts on how the David Price trade turned out? |
| 12:29 |
: Still think it was fine for the Rays. Smyly was a good pickup who got hurt. It happens.
|
| 12:30 |
Who could use a Prince Fielder? |
| 12:30 |
: Cardinals are the obvious contender with a big need at first base.
|
| 12:31 |
Curious about Jesus Montero – he’s worked hard to get in shape, seems to be playing a passable (it not great) 1B, and is putting up good numbers. What does he need to do to get a call up, aside from the Mariners having a fire sale? |
| 12:31 |
: He has a 127 wRC+ as a 25 year old in AAA. He’s not putting up good numbers. He’s doing what he’s always done, and he’s not a Major League player.
|
| 12:32 |
Clarification about Bauer being “bad.” Does this just mean you think he’s over-rated (which he is) or that you disagree with the projections (which ROS see him as a 2 WAR SP). |
| 12:33 |
: He’s posted +2 WAR in nearly 300 big league innings. His command isn’t getting any better. He’s a below average big league starter.
|
| 12:33 |
: He’s not useless, but he’s not any kind of star in the making.
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| 12:34 |
with a looming threat of an international draft, why arent teams just blowing past their bonus amounts? or will it not happen before next July 2? |
| 12:34 |
: Zero chance an international draft happens next year.
|
| 12:34 |
What would you do with the Pirates at this point RE: First Base? His hitting has been pretty good, but terrible defense has dragged him down to 0.2 WAR. Is that worth upgrading for just a wild card playoff seeding? |
| 12:34 |
: Yeah, the Pirates are a perfect fit for Adam Lind.
|
| 12:35 |
If you’re the Cubs, what do you do with Starlin Castro both for the rest of this season and beyond? |
| 12:35 |
: Keep him for the rest of the year, hope he rebounds, trade him this winter.
|
| 12:35 |
The Padres have in-house replacements for Norris and Alonso for 2016. Wouldn’t it make sense for Preller to trade them in an effort to reload? |
| 12:36 |
: It is not at all clear that Austin Hedges can hit Major League pitching, and unless you’re slotting in Myers at 1B, who is this replacement for Yonder Alonso that I’m missing?
|
| 12:36 |
what kind of package would be needed to trade for Zobrist |
| 12:37 |
: Probably a similar one to what Oakland gave up to get him. Maybe a 10-15% discount off that price, maybe.
|
| 12:37 |
Followup: Myers at first, Renfroe in the outfield. |
| 12:37 |
: Renfroe sucks.
|
| 12:38 |
Who should the Royals aquire? Who will they instead? |
| 12:38 |
: They need starting pitching. They should be in on Cueto.
|
| 12:38 |
Do you believe in Robbie Ray ? |
| 12:38 |
: Nope.
|
| 12:39 |
I’m curious as to why Oakland can’t have both. Couldn’t they lock up a young superstar to a friendly extension like the Rays did with Longo and the Bucs did with McCutchen? Do those two qualify as franchise players? |
| 12:39 |
: They tried that with Eric Chavez, he got hurt.
|
| 12:40 |
I don’t really follow. You’re unconvinced about the Padres two best prospects but feel like they made a mistake emptying their system of prospects who all ranked below them? Did they just never stand a chance? |
| 12:40 |
: They kept the wrong prospects.
|
| 12:40 |
How much longer is Semien’s leash at SS? Based on uninformed eyeball scouting, it honestly seems like Lawrie would be better there. |
| 12:41 |
: I’d imagine this is a one year experiment; he’ll be their starting 2B next year.
|
| 12:41 |
Kevin Gausman: ruined by the Orioles or never that good to begin with? Every O’s fan I know blames the organization for his struggles but he’s been in the big leagues for two years and I’ve still never seen him throw a decent breaking pitch. Maybe he’s just a reliever and that’s that? |
| 12:41 |
: Yeah, I’m in the overrated camp.
|
| 12:41 |
Are you buying the Giants young infield core moving forward? |
| 12:42 |
: Crawford and Panik aren’t this good, but they’re very solid above average players. Belt is okay. I’m not in on Duffy.
|
| 12:43 |
“renfroe sucks”? You’re an idiot. |
| 12:43 |
: He’s 23 and running a 92 wRC+ in AA, after running a 90 wRC+ in AA last year. Kiley got a Jeff Francouer comp on him when putting together the Padres list, and at this point, Frenchy’s career would be a very good outcome for Renfroe.
|
| 12:45 |
How much communication is there between Fangraphs writers on various baseball topics? You say Renfroe sucks but McDaniel had him as a top 50 prospect with a 55 FV. |
| 12:45 |
: Kiley and I talked about Renfroe about 24 hours ago. We don’t disagree on this.
|
| 12:45 |
: Renfroe will not be a 55 FV when he updates his list.
|
| 12:46 |
I think people underestimated what a dumpster fire the Padres org was before Preller took over. Preller should be commended for giving the Padres a chance this year, because they didn’t have a chance anytime soon, any other way. |
| 12:46 |
: I couldn’t disagree more. He took a team that had a chance to be decent in 2016 and burned it to the ground. The series of moves he made last winter probably did more damage to any franchise than we’ve seen in a very long time.
|
| 12:47 |
: Praising him for “doing something” is like being happy that a guy who shot himself in the nuts at least got off the couch.
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| 12:47 |
: And that seems like maybe a good way to end.
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| 12:48 |
: I’ll be back on Wednesdays next week, and Eno will bring the weird back to Thursdays.
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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
You watching “True Detective”? If so, what are your thoughts?
I’m glad they killed off Colin Farrell
They didn’t. He’s back in episode 7 as a Warg.
Sorry to post this here, but the youtube ad won’t let me go anywhere else on the page. So, I am very excited to read this chat if I can find a browser that will allow me to do so without being bounced to the top of the comments every 30 seconds.
I’m not complaining, but I am thwarted for the moment.
I am glad that is not just happening to me.
That chat ending was amazing!
I’m taking out a restraining order.
Your team’s ownership should take out a restraining order on you.
You can shoot yourself in the nuts without getting off the couch, Dave. The cleanup likely requires some mobility, however.
D.Pompey
22yrs old, plus glove in CF
Last 2yrs performance at age appropriate levels (currently at AA):
AA: 219pa, 9.6bb%, 15.5k%, .367babip, .330avg, 13/19sb, .211iso, 167wrc+
A+: 317pa, 11.0bb%, 17.7k%, .380babip, .319avg, 29/31sb, .152iso, 150wrc+
Last 2yrs at age aggressive levels:
MLB: 134pa, 7.5bb%, 25.4k%, .259babip, .205avg, 3/3sb, .164iso, 78wrc+
AAA: 158pa, 8.9bb%, 19.0k%, .330babip, .262avg, 12/15sb, .062iso, 87wrc+
Dave says: “Not good, can’t hit.”
your hot takes are getting lazier and lazier every day, Dave.
You must be a jays fan.
yes, i am a jays fan.
I also know what it means when a 21-22yr old good glove good run CF posts a 167wrc+ in AA and 150 in A+, with tood peripherals.
dave says “would take a back end top 100 prospect to get a top rental”
jays fan “how about pompey, some ranked him top 50, and he’s raking AA at 22”
dave says: “nah, he sucks”
Probably because he couldnt even hit triple a this year. He doesnt suck but they most likely want more upside and not a guy who plays where hamilton plays.
he hit AAA in a tiny sample last year at 21, didn’t hit AAA in a tiny sample this year at 22.
as for Hamilton, Pompey’s milb numbers dwarf his. Heck, Pompey has better mlb numbers than hamilton even this year.
Let’s not beat around the bush here. Dave is a dick in his chats. His matter-of-factness comes across as rude and stubborn.
Dave is a dick but he’s not wrong. If Pompey is the best offer the Jays put to the Reds for Cueto then they won’t get him…some other team will do better. Hamilton has less than 2 years of service time, he’s not an immediate concern for the Reds. They are far more in need for corner outfielders and starting pitchers to replace Byrd/Bruce – Cueto/Leake.
So true Antwan^
Plus his elitist attitude, which is OK when he’s giving solid, clear reasons for feeling a certain way. For some reason he’s been falling into the typical talking head trap lately and not giving any numbers or facts to back up his opinions. Very unlike him.
His stubbornness is pretty comical, especially when he’s clearly wrong like when he got into a twitter back and forth with Keith Law last year. His inability to admit when he’s wrong is not a good quality for a writer.
To be fair, it’s a chat. How many questions do you think he’d be able to get to if he stopped to pull up each player page and quote his exact statistics for each response?
Well, Keith Law’s stubbornness and snark make Dave look like a meditating Buddhist monk by comparison.
Look, I get that chats are pretty causal, you have be quick on your responses, and you have to deal with the occasional troll or angry saber-denier who makes an outrageous claim/asks an asinine question/calls you an idiot, but it’s getting to be a serious problem in the saber community with smart baseball people acting like huge jerks, calling regular fans stupid, and throwing absolutes around like they are guaranteed to happen because hey. . . I think I’m the smartest person here. Every baseball mind is wrong. . . a lot, because baseball is a difficult thing to analyze from the draft through development in the minors all the way to running the major league club. It’s just that a lot of those smart baseball people seem to forget this (or choose to ignore it) when they write and eventually have to try to defend the wording of their snark when it blows up in their face on occasion. (See Dave’s article on the Royals trading away Wil Myers and company for James Shields/Wade Davis)
This isn’t a knock on Keith or Dave (who are incredibly well-versed baseball men) as a whole, but rather just a concern. The writers at Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and numerous other sources are great reads. There is a bunch of excellent material all over the web and in places you would least expect. Let’s not alienate people who like their teams, their players, their prospects, and are entertained by the game in general just because they aren’t as obsessed with FIP, UZR, BABIP, and WAR as the rest of us weirdos. 🙂
Endlessbacklash, that may be the comment of the year. 100% spot on. I’m a huge fan of both, and this is my only complaint about them.
“Getting to be”?
The Saber community has already grown up. It’s positively genteel and even kindly compared to the early days of BP and classic Bill James and the Big Book of Baseball.
Grow a pair, and hope the Sabr-toothed Tigers don’t bite ‘me off!
@Bookbook
Sure, things were different in the early days of sabermetrics. You had the old-guard dismissing, belittling, and criticizing statisticians who published formative data and opened up exciting new possibilities in evaluating the way teams were run and players were valued.
They were called “basement-dwelling nerds,” who didn’t know anything because they never played the game and things weren’t pleasant. As with any sort of progress, the early stages were tumultuous and there was a two-steps forward, one-step back kind of mentality. People were mad, exchanges were nasty, and as you say, it was probably much worse.
But you’re kidding yourself if you don’t think a problem exists, this time with a number of saberists now guilty of swinging the other way into snarkery and bullying of their own. The Joe Morgans, the Hawk Harrelsons, the “old-school” people that progressive baseball analysts love to hate on are quickly disappearing or being relegated to the background. Now, it seems that other, less high-profile targets are subjects of ridicule.
I’ve heard the question posed, “Do you think advanced statistical analysis is ruining the experience for fans and/or making it hard for young fans to learn and enjoy baseball?”
Personally, I don’t think it does. If anything, a whole new group of people are passionate about the game *because* of this methodology. You can enjoy baseball as entertainment if you are into stats or if you care less.
Buuuuuut, the problem is when you have people from the saber community criticizing those who are just there to enjoy the athletic prowess of the players. They somehow take it personally and even complain when the crowd cheers a great diving catch by a left-fielder who has a negative-UZR over the last couple years. These people exist and some of that behavior can transfer over to mainstream analysis, blogs, and commentary. And *that* is what I am talking about, and *that* is an actual concern.
Is the environment better now? Oh sure, I can agree with you there. But, if smart saber-types (who FWIW, work in an *entertainment* field) want to truly promote and spread their knowledge, they could probably try and cut back on being jerks.
Picture any niche entertainment field where “experts*”, some of whom are paid for the “expertise*” and you’ll get the same behavior.
(*definition varies by individual)
Fine food and drink (craft beer/liquor/wine, coffee), sports, fashion, music, movies/TV, pop culture anything.
It’s great to enjoy those hobbies, be incredibly passionate about them, and kudos if you parlay that into a job/career.
But seriously, It’s *bleeping* entertainment. And despite your loving passion for it, if you can’t stop and realize that, you’re probably taking things a tad bit overboard.
personally I could care less about Dave’s snark.
Dave’s bigger issue is that he’s wrong. a lot. and more and more often.
seems like he’s just getting too bored to bother doing the legwork that made him so good in the first place.
snark doesn’t work so well when you’re wrong.
Remember when Dave Cameron blamed the tigers defense for my lackluster performances? Good times..
All it takes is a cursory glance at pitch usage to see the Red Sox have handled him absolutely horribly. One of his biggest early problems as a pitcher was getting handled by lefties. He developed a change that ended up offsetting some of that. As a Red Sox pitcher, his change usage is way down and his fastball, which is not a punch-out quality pitch, is way up. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, but they’re trying to make him one.
Red Sox defense this year hasn’t been sparkling. Which I’m sure you know because you have to watch it every damn day.
Your GB% sure ain’t as great as it was in those days!
Defensively is it fairly easy for a SS to move to 3B?
Why the 10-15% discount on Zobrist from what the A’s gave up? I know it’s a half season rather than a full season, but as was discussed last summer teams pay a very hefty premium to acquire wins midseason, when their playoff probability gives those wins a lot more leverage.
Based on some of the deals we saw last summer and the fact that it’s a seller’s market, I would think the price would be significantly higher now than it was preseason.
Coming off an injury, defense doesn’t look as good.
Also, his versatility means that he could be a good fit on just about any roster. He would be a significant improvement to about 10+ potential playoff teams right now, some of whom are fighting each other for spots and would get the dual benefit of keeping him away from a competitor.
I really think that if he’s made available the return will be huge, but what do I know.
Come on Dave, you just took a cheap shot toward the Mariners with regard to Justin Smoak. Their organization has a lot of things they suck at, but you’re the guy who said Justin Smoak was the player who benefit the most from using steroids, because he simply did not have enough power. You wrote about him for years saying how unlikely it was that he would be productive given similar players with his skill set. So when someone asks you what’s gotten into Justin Smoak your answer is, “The Mariners sure do suck.”? You’re better than this.
Do you not trade Bryant and shitty fucking Anthony Rizzo for Miek Tert?
you trade bryAnt and DOM BROWN 4 a high SChooL level EDUCATION!
Every sane universe.
Cameron deadpans his way through another great chat….hilarious.
I’ve met too many sports journalists whose cynicism and negativity can be overbearing. Mr. Cameron is edging close to that description. He dismisses too many players as “bad” and “terrible” and then when he’s called on it, he says something like: “Well, they are average.” Look, everybody knows that only a select few players deserved to be called superstars and most players are “merely” average. But an “average” major league players is still one hell of an athlete. How does Mr. Cameron compare as a prose stylist (which is one of the major ways we judge writers) to, say, Roger Angell, a former superstar in the field? Would he like to be harshly judged or would he like a little more context and simple fairness in how we describe his talent? Is he a “bad” stylist or an “average” stylist? Let’s say he’s “average.” Shouldn’t we nonetheless respect other attributes and his very dignified level of professionalism? The cheap and sometimes harsh or shrill negativity of too many sportswriters is one very real reason why athletes get tired of them. Even the non-superstars in baseball aren’t “bad.” They are very devoted and capable athletes even when they are not superstars. That is a truth and distinction worth noticing, especially by people paid to be accurate in their opinion. All these players labelled “bad” by Mr. Cameron could kick the asses of 99.9% of the world’s population on the ballfield. That is a truth and distinction worth noticing. “Bad” and its over-reaching, over-used, puerile synonyms are unearned. I’ve been meaning to say this for a long time about Mr. Cameron’s postings. I admire a lot of what he writes and respect his intelligence and knowledge. But the over-ripe cynicism is repetitive, lacking in nuance, and boring, and I’m glad I finally said so even if nobody else agrees or listens. Thank you.