Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/2/15

Dave Cameron: Chatting on Thursday this week because Kiley happened to be in NC yesterday and wanted to grab lunch, so this all feels a bit strange. And to make it even stranger, we’re going to start and end a little early today; the queue is now open, and we’ll go from 11:45 to 12:45.

Comment From hscer
On a scale of negative billion to +10, how surprised would you be to learn that Chris Davis and Ian Desmond lead MLB with four 4-strikeout games?

Dave Cameron: I certainly wouldn’t have expected Desmond to be on there over guys like George Springer.

Comment From Pale Hose
Can we expect this to get weird? We are used to weird on Thursdays.

Dave Cameron: Next Thursday, the weird will return, I’m sure.

Comment From Joss
Eno’s piece on the submarine riser got me wondering. Do you think there are effective pitches not yet invented?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, almost certainly. I don’t think there’s any reason to think that every possible effective pitch has been discovered already.

Comment From My Socks are White
Will the White Sox be active sellers come trade deadline? If so, do you think Alexei Ramirez gets moved?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, they have to realize their season is over at this point. I’d bet Samardzija, Ramirez, and maybe Robertson get moved.

Comment From Tony G.
Thoughts on Sano being called up? How excited should Twins fans be?

Dave Cameron: He’s not going to stop the upcoming free fall, but he’ll probably be one of their better hitters going forward.

Comment From John Farrell
So many articles starting to surface about what the Red Sox should do at the deadline, from trading Hanley, Pablo, Napoli and even Buchholz. What do you see them doing?

Dave Cameron: I doubt we see any major moves. Maybe they’ll send Koji to a contender or something, but any major overhauls will happen this winter.

Comment From Brian
Who would say no in a hypothetical trade of Mike Trout for Bryant and Rizzo?

Dave Cameron: The Cubs.

Comment From Moop
Is Seattle ruining Trumbo? I know he wasn’t an amazing player before, but he was at least productive in Arizona.

Dave Cameron: He’s productive when he hits homers and useless when he doesn’t. Guys like this run hot and cold.

Comment From Jackson
Say a team takes Cueto+all of Phillips’ contract. Is that about an even trade for Cincinnati?

Dave Cameron: Phillips has 2/27 left on his deal after this year, is probably worth like 2/18 or something in that range. The Reds should be able to do better than $10 million in value for Cueto. The draft pick they’d get as compensation from letting him walk as an FA is worth something in that range by itself.

Comment From adam
how was your lunch with kiley?

Dave Cameron: We had a good time. At least half of it was comparing rumors we’ve heard about the D’Backs front office bungles. There are so many of those!

Comment From adam
will myers ever play 140+?

Dave Cameron: Ever? Sure. I think even Nick Johnson got to 140 once, right?

Comment From Mark
You wrote yesterday that the Padres should go for it? Does this mean they should be buyers? If so, who should they look for? Should they be aggressive or just look to tinker so as not to dig a deeper hole?

Dave Cameron: If they can make some small upgrades that don’t cost them much talent, then yeah. Try to buy low on Alexei Ramirez or a reasonable MLB third baseman.

Comment From Jackson
Who’s next in line for a total teardown/rebuild?

Dave Cameron: The Brewers.

Comment From Alex
Let’s say the Blue Jays pull off a huge trade in the next two weeks. What do you think that trade is?

Dave Cameron: Every good young talent they have for Cueto/Chapman.

Comment From Jay
What would the return on a deal for Cueto look like? Two top 50’s+, or less because he’s just a rental?

Dave Cameron: Definitely less than that. Rentals are more like one back-end top 100 guy and some filler.

Comment From Neil Huntington
Are you of the mindset that small market teams should go for it all in one year, or continue trying to extend their “window”? Seems like the all in approach is too high a risk for small market teams.

Dave Cameron: I think the marginal gains to be made by going “all in” are generally pretty small. The most you can ever really move the needle is a few percentage points.

Comment From brian
Regarding white sox trading Robertson or for instance Padres trading Shields. Unless they eat some money the return would be pretty minimal right? I realize teams are more clear on where they are this year and you can’t sign someone to help you out mid season. But the players aren’t suddenly worth a ton more than the top bidder was willing to pay them 6 months ago right?

Dave Cameron: Supply is gone, demand is up. Yes, guys who are performing well are worth more than what they signed for in the off-season. It’s a different market.

Comment From Talk about my Os
Do you think the Orioles will hold on to first or do you see Tampa, Toronto or NY breaking free?

Dave Cameron: I’ll pick the Blue Jays out of that group.

Comment From Henry
If the Mariners continue to do poorly, do you think they have any assets they will try to sell?

Dave Cameron: Unlikely. You don’t push in on Cano, Cruz, and Felix’s prime, then turn around and rebuild.

Dave Cameron: Like the Padres to some degree, they’re committed to their course.

Comment From Eminor3rd
White Sox fans are clamoring for a tear-down, but I’m not so sure this isn’t still part of the rebuild. Samardzija was always a rental, but the price wasn’t high, and they’ll get a prospect or comp pick back. La Roche was only a 2-year deal. Danks expires after next year. The only market-rate assets left after that are Melky and Robertson. Am I correct that the White Sox best course of action is “stay the course”? To try to get a bit better every year and just stick in that WC hunt?

Dave Cameron: I’m in the blow it up camp. You just need more above average players than they have in order to win.

Comment From Ryan
As a Phillies fan, how frustrated should I be that they blew past their 7/2 pool only signing two players? Especially with the money the Dodgers are throwing around…

Dave Cameron: Not every team has the Dodgers money.

Comment From lacstoto
Why doesn’t Carson do chats? What would they be like? Can we make that happen?

Dave Cameron: He does live blogs on Opening Day and during the postseason. They’re… Carsonish.

Comment From Henry
On a scale from 1 to dumb, how dumb is the Angels firing their GM?

Dave Cameron: They didn’t fire him; he quit.

Comment From Neil Huntington
So many people suggesting Kazmir is going to be traded, but the A’s are only 6 games out of the Wild Card. We’ve seen teams be buyers as much as 8 games out. Is it still reasonable to expect the A’s to sell even though they’re record is much worse than their play would suggest?

Dave Cameron: Depends how they play over the next 3 weeks or so. They’re good enough to climb back in it, but I’d expect Billy Beane will want to be within 3 or 4 games to keep this together.

Comment From Brian
Who has the best rotation in baseball for the next 5 years?

Dave Cameron: Whichever team doesn’t have all their pitchers get hurt. The easy pick is the Mets, but even they only have like a 5% chance of actually being the team with the best rotation going forward.

Comment From Neil Huntington
Does it really make sense for a Wild Card contender to trade for anyone except someone who can make a definite difference in a single game as opposed to say +1.0 WAR over the course of the RoS?

Dave Cameron: I think you try to make your roster better without acquiring someone who won’t play in that game. So you don’t necessarily acquire for the game itself, but if you already have an ace, don’t get another SP.

Comment From Bret
Does Dalton Pompey work as the main piece for the Jays to land Johnny Cueto? I assume the Jays would need to add some complimentary pieces, but Pompey fits as that roughly “back-end, top 100” guy. He’s also close to the majors, which should appeal to the Reds who don’t seem to want to completely rebuild. Plus, the Jays may be okay relying on Pillar in CF for the near-term.

Dave Cameron: Dalton Pompey isn’t very good, and the Reds already have a can’t-hit-CF.

Comment From Sean
Smoak goes to the Blue Jays and suddenly is useful. My guess is the same thing will happen with Ackley wherever he ends up. What the hell is going on with the M’s development?

Dave Cameron: They suck at it.

Comment From KB
Is there anyone on the current Brewers MLB roster you’d be opposed to trading if you were Doug Melvin?

Dave Cameron: Nope. They should burn that thing down.

Comment From Neil Huntington
Wouldnt it make sense to sign a bunch of guys in the offseason with the intention of selling them around the deadline? Make a “profit” by benefitting from the value youve got plus whatever you get in a trade. Do teams do this?

Dave Cameron: The profit will be eaten into by the fact that a good chunk of the guys you sign will lose value and you’ll waste money on them. So maybe you sign 4 guys and flip 2, but you have to keep the other 2 even though they aren’t helping you.

Dave Cameron: But yeah, non-contenders have been doing this with relievers forever.

Comment From Caldo
Could you see an Alexei Ramirez for Alexi Amarista sub getting the Pads into Wild Card 2?

Dave Cameron: No, they need a lot more than that. And some luck.

Comment From mmarsden
It sure looks like he was forced out

Dave Cameron: They tried to get him to stay. He didn’t want to work with Scioscia anymore.

Comment From Prich
Isn’t there a middle ground, don’t the M’s have quite a few pieces to sell that if they did so, it still wouldn’t be an all-out rebuild

Dave Cameron: Not really, no.

Dave Cameron: You’re not getting anything for Austin Jackson at this point. Seth Smith would get you a low level minor leaguer or something. J.A. Happ, same deal.

Comment From Votto Knows Best
Is there a simple explanation to why some batters are patient and take a lot of walks, and some don’t? I assume it’s some combination of “ability to recognize pitch” + “confidence in knowing what you can hit” + 4 other things I don’t know

Dave Cameron: Vision is part of it, but I think it’s pretty heavily tied to how players were taught. It’s a developed skill more than an innate trait.

Comment From Ol Sea Capn
Brad Miller …. I have a feeling he’s the next Mike Moustakas. We will continue to experience blah and then when we have all given up….. KABOOOOM!

Dave Cameron: He’s on pace for a +3.5 WAR season. Why have you given up?

Comment From Warren
In light of yesterday’s JABO article, what kind of return would the Pads need to get back for J Upton to justify selling him? Would this quality of return be possible even in this seller’s market?

Dave Cameron: I think they’d have to find someone who was willing to take one of their big contracts too. You’re dumping his brother’s whole contract in that deal, but maybe some crazy person takes most of it, and then you actually have some flexibility to re-spend this winter.

Comment From Jose
If the Padres could trade half a season of Upton for a year and a half of someone else, like Boston did last year with Lester and Cespedes, would you approve?

Dave Cameron: Sure. I don’t know what that deal would be, though.

Comment From The Big Dipper
What type of pitcher can the Yankees pick up without giving up Judge/Severino? Mike Leake possibility?

Dave Cameron: Those guys are good enough that you could probably take them off the table and still be in play for even a guy like Cueto. But you’d have to give up multiple things, not just one and filler.

Comment From Ryan
Can batters learn patience as they age, or are they pretty much what they are approach-wise?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, walk rate is one of those things that peaks very late in a player’s career. It’s definitely learned as they go.

Comment From Joss
Can Ackley still play 2B? Cashman would like to try his Montero-Pineda game again.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he was a pretty good defender at 2B. I’d imagine someone will move him back there and find he’s still a perfectly useful player outside of Seattle.

Comment From Mike
Dave, how do you survive the heat/humidity and the fascination with cars driving around in circles?

Dave Cameron: Air Conditioning, and ignore it.

Comment From GSon
Kluber/Bauer/Carrasco/Salazar/Anderson: Is there a better young starting five in all of baseball?

Dave Cameron: I’ll take the Mets group.

Comment From Will
What are your thoughts on the Astros trading for Kazmir? Obviously hes a 1 year rental, as the Astros have said they wanted, and hes from Houston which might increase his likelihood of signing there. However, Kazmir has a history of fading as the season progresses. Is it worth the risk gambling on him, especially if you have to give up a prospect like Singleton to get him?

Dave Cameron: He’s a perfect fit for them. And Singelton isn’t so special that you’d really hate to give him up.

Comment From Henry
Speaking of the Mariners being completely incompetent at talent development (despite Jack Z’s reputation for that finding talent and what not)—what would it take for them to finally cut Jack Z/this front office? Missing the playoffs? Losing record?

Dave Cameron: I think 2014 bought them all a few more years. They’ll need to flop again next year before anyone is getting fired.

Comment From Rasmus II
What is Francisco Lindor’s offensive ceiling? Does he have upper tier shortstop potential, or has his prospect value always been primarily tied to his defense?

Dave Cameron: High contact, some walks, low power. Probably league average hitter or somewhere in that range. If he’s a plus defender, that’s a very good player.

Comment From Josh G
Are you buying the Matt Carpenter comparisons for Matt Duffy?

Dave Cameron: Not at all.

Comment From Jerry
So is it safe to say that Pederson is clearly better than Bryant now?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Comment From dom
Do you think Oakland has a preference for quantity over quality in trade hauls, or that’s just the way a couple trades look?

Dave Cameron: I think they realize that you’re generally better off getting four guys at 90% of the value of one guy than one big flashy name.

Comment From Dave
I was a little disappointed by the tone of your Dave Stewart article. You may disagree with the guy, but that doesn’t mean he is incompetent

Dave Cameron: I gave him far more of the benefit of the doubt than he’s earned.

Comment From Jeff
Thoughts on how the Rangers addresses their rotation going forward? It’s hard to count on everyone (or even most) of the Darvish/Harrison/Perez/Darvish group coming all the way back, but do you really want to invest heavily in SP when you’ve got so many potential options?

Dave Cameron: They shouldn’t be investing heavily in 2015 regardless.

Dave Cameron: They should be trying to sell high on Prince Fielder while they still can.

Comment From Bill
Do you think there’s value to the notion of a franchise player? When I think back on the A’s last fifteen years, the only person who really pops out is Giambi. I realize this is the hazard of running a low budget team, but do you think they’re hurting themselves at all with constant churn? Something nice about Chipper, Lance Berkman, etc.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I do think there’s value to be had in having franchise icons, guys going into the Hall of Fame with your team’s cap on, being able to have legends games and such. But it’s not so important that you prioritize it over winning games.

Dave Cameron: The ideal is to have both. Oakland can’t have both.

Comment From Righty
Are the Tigers buyers or sellers?

Dave Cameron: Buyers.

Comment From Austin
JA Happ doesn’t come across like a very overwhelming player, but he’s somehow been worth 0.2 WAR less than Felix. Given the cost of wins, shouldn’t he be worth a QA?

Dave Cameron: If you’re paying J.A. Happ $17 million next year, you’ve made a huge mistake.

Comment From coach
One year later, what are your thoughts on how the David Price trade turned out?

Dave Cameron: Still think it was fine for the Rays. Smyly was a good pickup who got hurt. It happens.

Comment From Mike
Who could use a Prince Fielder?

Dave Cameron: Cardinals are the obvious contender with a big need at first base.

Comment From Jack
Curious about Jesus Montero – he’s worked hard to get in shape, seems to be playing a passable (it not great) 1B, and is putting up good numbers. What does he need to do to get a call up, aside from the Mariners having a fire sale?

Dave Cameron: He has a 127 wRC+ as a 25 year old in AAA. He’s not putting up good numbers. He’s doing what he’s always done, and he’s not a Major League player.

Comment From Candy LaChance
Clarification about Bauer being “bad.” Does this just mean you think he’s over-rated (which he is) or that you disagree with the projections (which ROS see him as a 2 WAR SP).

Dave Cameron: He’s posted +2 WAR in nearly 300 big league innings. His command isn’t getting any better. He’s a below average big league starter.

Dave Cameron: He’s not useless, but he’s not any kind of star in the making.

Comment From Johnny5Alive
with a looming threat of an international draft, why arent teams just blowing past their bonus amounts? or will it not happen before next July 2?

Dave Cameron: Zero chance an international draft happens next year.

Comment From Justin
What would you do with the Pirates at this point RE: First Base? His hitting has been pretty good, but terrible defense has dragged him down to 0.2 WAR. Is that worth upgrading for just a wild card playoff seeding?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the Pirates are a perfect fit for Adam Lind.

Comment From Greg
If you’re the Cubs, what do you do with Starlin Castro both for the rest of this season and beyond?

Dave Cameron: Keep him for the rest of the year, hope he rebounds, trade him this winter.

Comment From Fed
The Padres have in-house replacements for Norris and Alonso for 2016. Wouldn’t it make sense for Preller to trade them in an effort to reload?

Dave Cameron: It is not at all clear that Austin Hedges can hit Major League pitching, and unless you’re slotting in Myers at 1B, who is this replacement for Yonder Alonso that I’m missing?

Comment From dom
what kind of package would be needed to trade for Zobrist

Dave Cameron: Probably a similar one to what Oakland gave up to get him. Maybe a 10-15% discount off that price, maybe.

Comment From Fed
Followup: Myers at first, Renfroe in the outfield.

Dave Cameron: Renfroe sucks.

Comment From Country Breakfast
Who should the Royals aquire? Who will they instead?

Dave Cameron: They need starting pitching. They should be in on Cueto.

Comment From FTF
Do you believe in Robbie Ray ?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Comment From John
I’m curious as to why Oakland can’t have both. Couldn’t they lock up a young superstar to a friendly extension like the Rays did with Longo and the Bucs did with McCutchen? Do those two qualify as franchise players?

Dave Cameron: They tried that with Eric Chavez, he got hurt.

Comment From Fed
I don’t really follow. You’re unconvinced about the Padres two best prospects but feel like they made a mistake emptying their system of prospects who all ranked below them? Did they just never stand a chance?

Dave Cameron: They kept the wrong prospects.

Comment From Sonny Grays Flu
How much longer is Semien’s leash at SS? Based on uninformed eyeball scouting, it honestly seems like Lawrie would be better there.

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine this is a one year experiment; he’ll be their starting 2B next year.

Comment From mtsw
Kevin Gausman: ruined by the Orioles or never that good to begin with? Every O’s fan I know blames the organization for his struggles but he’s been in the big leagues for two years and I’ve still never seen him throw a decent breaking pitch. Maybe he’s just a reliever and that’s that?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’m in the overrated camp.

Comment From Skore
Are you buying the Giants young infield core moving forward?

Dave Cameron: Crawford and Panik aren’t this good, but they’re very solid above average players. Belt is okay. I’m not in on Duffy.

Comment From Padsfan
“renfroe sucks”? You’re an idiot.

Dave Cameron: He’s 23 and running a 92 wRC+ in AA, after running a 90 wRC+ in AA last year. Kiley got a Jeff Francouer comp on him when putting together the Padres list, and at this point, Frenchy’s career would be a very good outcome for Renfroe.

Comment From Bob Benson
How much communication is there between Fangraphs writers on various baseball topics? You say Renfroe sucks but McDaniel had him as a top 50 prospect with a 55 FV.

Dave Cameron: Kiley and I talked about Renfroe about 24 hours ago. We don’t disagree on this.

Dave Cameron: Renfroe will not be a 55 FV when he updates his list.

Comment From Bojack Horseman
I think people underestimated what a dumpster fire the Padres org was before Preller took over. Preller should be commended for giving the Padres a chance this year, because they didn’t have a chance anytime soon, any other way.

Dave Cameron: I couldn’t disagree more. He took a team that had a chance to be decent in 2016 and burned it to the ground. The series of moves he made last winter probably did more damage to any franchise than we’ve seen in a very long time.

Dave Cameron: Praising him for “doing something” is like being happy that a guy who shot himself in the nuts at least got off the couch.

Dave Cameron: And that seems like maybe a good way to end.

Dave Cameron: I’ll be back on Wednesdays next week, and Eno will bring the weird back to Thursdays.