Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/29/15

Dave Cameron: The trade deadline is two days away, and there’s obviously plenty to talk about. Get your questions in now, and we’ll start in 20 minutes or so.

Dave Cameron: Alright, we’re already one trade in today, and it sounds like a bunch more are coming. This is a crazy week.

Comment From marc
with the most recent dodgers trade, latos and morse, does that make Van Slyke more available? How would he fit with the PIrtaes?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Morse ever plays for the Dodgers. They took his contract to not have to give up good prospects for Latos and the comp pick they bought. I bet they’ll DFA Morse straight away, then ship him to an AL team who wants a cheap DH, with LA still covering most of the costs.

Comment From Guest
is this all posturing from the tigers? they cant possibly think buying is smart when theres 5 teams ahead of them for the 2nd wild card

Dave Cameron: A week ago, I didn’t see why the Tigers should sell, but they’ve been garbage ever since, and now I’m on board. Break it up.

Comment From Mike
Dave, should the Jays bat Donaldson 1st? JD Tulo Bautista EE?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably hit Tulo first. Has the least amount of power.

Comment From JollyJack
Starlin Castro – good fit for the Padres or should they steer clear?

Dave Cameron: It’s a good fit for them in that he’s overrated and they like overrated players.

Comment From Guest
after a day to digest it, I still don’t understand the tulo trade from the rockies side. are they that worried about future cash flows?

Dave Cameron: There was no reason for them to keep him, and this was the best offer they got. They should have traded him a while ago, and the return reflects the fact that his value has declined.

Comment From mtsw
Obviously, the Blue Jays have been unlucky. But could part of that bad luck be due to the extreme right-handedness of their lineup? It would make sense that they’d underperform in high leverage situations (where they’d often be forced to face a right handed specialist reliever) in comparison to typical situations.

Dave Cameron: They’ve actually scored more runs than would be expected by BaseRuns, not less. Their un-clutchness has been on the pitching side.

Comment From Matt
Are these selling prospect trades (taking on a salary dump to acquire prospects) a problem for the current system? How blatant would they have to get before the league did something?

Dave Cameron: It’s always going to be an issue as long as MLB constrains spending on prospect acquisition markets. If you’re constraining spending but not constraining revenues, you’re going to end up with teams having cash that they want to turn into talent, and they’ll find a way to do it. You’re just never going to be able to block them from using their resources to improve their teams.

Comment From marc
should the pirates be looking at a solid middle rotation guy? its a lot to ask of a 38 year old AJ burnett to keep up his miraculous first half, and there is already signs of him faltering a little.

Dave Cameron: I penciled them in for Mike Leake on my trade predictions post, and I think a guy like that is worth going after. Even if Burnett doesn’t fade, Morton/Locke both fit better in the bullpen in the postseason anyway.

Comment From Pale Hose
The deadline has already been crazy and we haven’t heard from Preller yet!

Dave Cameron: If the Tigers do move Price, this might be the most impact talent we’ve seen moved at a deadline in a long time. And a month ago we thought there were no sellers.

Comment From Donnie Drapes
What do you see the Padres doing?

Dave Cameron: Trading all their free agents (Upton, Benoit, Kelley, Kennedy) and keeping the rest. I don’t buy that they’re really ready to punt on 2016, but if you trade Ross/Cashner/Shields, that’s exactly what you’re doing.

Comment From Kyle
The Mariners are going to do essentially nothing at the deadline, right?

Dave Cameron: They’ll trade Iwakuma, I bet.

Comment From Bryceroni
Do you think clubhouse chemistry has a non-negligible impact on team winning?

Dave Cameron: I can believe that really bad clubhouse guys can have a real negative impact easier than I can believe that good clubhouse guys can have a positive one.

Comment From Mole Zamels
Dodgers acquiring Michael Morse with an already crowded outfield may have been a way for them to decrease the prospect cost of Mat Latos. But could this also be an indication that they are looking to shop one of their existing outfielders before the deadline? Rumor was they told Puig he would not be traded, but now it sounds like they are listening to offers. Moving Ethier would make sense to me. As would shipping Puig to Philly in exchange for Cole Hamels.

Dave Cameron: A team that spent the winter trading offense for defense isn’t going to view Mike Morse as an outfielder.

Comment From Kevin
Feeling any better? Jeff tried drumming up sympathy for how inconvenient this trade deadline has been for you

Dave Cameron: Fever is down to 99, and I’m mostly functional today. This was a pretty lousy week to get sick though.

Comment From Julio Pepper
Hamels going to the Rangers at this point?

Dave Cameron: Or the Dodgers.

Comment From Sleight of Hand Pro
what is the best course of action for the Astros? another rental arm like shark? dominant bullpen piece like kimbrel? should they be going all-in on rentals or thinking more long-term with their trade targets?

Dave Cameron: They need a center fielder. Carlos Gomez is the perfect fit for them.

Comment From Houzer
Do the Tigers run the risk of not getting a fair return on Price if they wait until Friday?

Dave Cameron: There will always be a market for Price.

Comment From Dave B
So, Phils got rid of Paplebon. Did they get, you know, anything? What does it mean for the padres and Kimbrel?

Dave Cameron: They got out of his $13 million option that was going to vest, and they got a lottery ticket arm that might turn into something. That’s all you can hope for with an expensive RP.

Comment From Tim
If you’re in full tear down mode (like the Reds should be), should they consider selling some assets at 70 cents on the dollar rather than waiting around for the perfect deal that may not happen? Is a lower leverage winter meeting deal more likely to produce a satisfying return?

Dave Cameron: I think they’re making a mistake hanging on to Todd Frazier. His value will never be this high again.

Comment From lunch
the mets reportedly asked the braves about simmons, but the braves’ price was “unreachable.” feel like speculating on what they may have asked for? if you were the braves, what would you have asked for?

Dave Cameron: Knowing the Braves coveting of young arms, I bet they asked for Syndergaard or deGrom.

Comment From JJB
With so many expiring contracts & a very thin farm system, do you think the Orioles situation gets ugly pretty quick? Looks like Machado would have to carry a lot of the load to keep them relevant.

Dave Cameron: Well, some of those expiring contracts are for guys who aren’t that great. It’s not like Matt Wieters has given them a ton of value this year.

Dave Cameron: But yeah, they’re in a weird spot.

Comment From DZ
What do you think the Blue Jays do to follow up their pickup of Tulo?

Dave Cameron: They’ll get a starter. There are too many SPs on the market for them to come up empty-handed.

Comment From JJB
As a Phillies fan, if Chi Chi Gonzalez is one of the primary chips in return for Hamels, how should I feel?

Dave Cameron: I’m not a big fan of Chi Chi (or Alfaro, for that matter), so I probably wouldn’t be looking to trade with Texas.

Comment From Josh G
Gut feeling: do the Brewers trade Gomez? Would he fetch a higher return than the other CarGo?

Dave Cameron: They’d be insane to keep him. Which doesn’t preclude it, but it would be gross mismanagement.

Comment From John
Can you see the Braves trading Freeman?

Dave Cameron: No reason to, and not much of a market for 1Bs right now.

Comment From DZ
What are your early thoughts on the Dodgers acquisition of Latos?

Dave Cameron: In the vein of what I suggested with Iwakuma; buy low on a high ERA guy who will probably perform better down the stretch. Probably don’t want him to be more than your #4 playoff starter, though, so I’d still be looking for another arm.

Comment From Ben Cherington
Dave, can I interest you in Mike Napoli? I’ll pay his salary…

Dave Cameron: How fast does he type?

Comment From CTMike
Can the Dodgers acquire Cole Hamels without giving up Seager and Urias?

Dave Cameron: Yep. No team is giving up that kind of prospect for him.

Comment From JJB
You mention in the podcasts that you don’t have cable. Where did you find the inspiration to give it up (assuming you once had it)? I don’t watch a ton of TV, but would love to give it up for a variety of reasons.

Dave Cameron: I’m frugal by nature, so I don’t like paying for something I don’t use. It is far cheaper for us to just rent TV shows we like by the episode or season than to subscribe to a cable package.

Comment From AA
Think in the off season that Latos gets a contract bigger than shields in either $ or years?

Dave Cameron: No way. He’s a 2-3 year guy at best.

Comment From baltic wolf
Dave: a Jays fan turned me on to your article about the non linear effect of adding an extra potent bat in the form of Tulo. I read it and enjoyed it also. However: what good is the non linear effect if there’s a high probability that not only Tulo, but Bautista and EE will frequently not be in the lineup? After all, all three have plenty of DL stints marring their careers, and none of them are young. Older guys get more injuries. Am I wrong to say he should temper his enthusiasm about Tulo’s impact on the team?

Dave Cameron: Health is obviously a concern with Tulo, but that’s also why the cost was so (relatively) low. The odds of not getting him at his best was factored into the acquisition price.

Comment From Cardinals1893
whats your take on the Cardinals 1b man situation and them needing to upgrade it (Adam Lind, Chris Davis) and what they should do in your opinion

Dave Cameron: Lind is the obvious move.

Comment From Aaron
I’ve seen the White Sox want to be buyers. They would love to replace Danks in the rotation and could use another bat, who do you see as a possibility?

Dave Cameron: By BaseRuns, the White Sox have been the 27th best team in baseball this year. They should absolutely not be buyers.

Comment From Dougy
Did KC overpay for Zobrist?

Dave Cameron: Maybe. I think the Cueto trade was easier to justify based on the ability to leverage your best pitchers in October. A position player, though, I’m not so sure you want to pay full price for a guy like that when you have the division title locked up.

Dave Cameron: Pushing too many chips in on the postseason is a good way to end up disappointed.

Comment From Matt
Marlins are giving up right to give Latos a qualifying offer, too, right?

Dave Cameron: Yep, but I don’t think they would have anyway.

Comment From Taylor
True or false: Friedman got the competitive balance pick to sweeten a Price/Hamels offer.

Dave Cameron: False. They can only be traded once.

Comment From Ben Cerutti
Would you consider this (as currently is) a buyers or sellers market and why?

Dave Cameron: Buyers market for pitching, seller’s market for hitting.

Comment From hscer
how quickly do playoff odds update for trades

Dave Cameron: Roughly 15 minutes after we update the depth charts.

Comment From Chicago Mark
Sorry but more Cubs. Have you seen Schwarber behind the plate? Do you have any opinion on how he’s doing defensively?

Dave Cameron: I watched a couple of games where he caught, and he looked pretty rough at times. He definitely cost his pitchers some strikes.

Comment From Miggy Azalea
It seems like the Phils got next to nothing in Nick Pivetta for Papelbon. Does getting $13M off 2016 make this make sense to you, or are teams just generally not willing to pay for closers?

Dave Cameron: They’re much better off without him around, and they can re-invest that money on something that might have a future in Philly.

Comment From Legs Frietch
What did you think about the quality of the asset package the Reds received for Cueto?

Dave Cameron: It seemed about right. Definitely leaned more towards proximity to the big leagues than upside, but with the Reds TV contract coming up for renegotiation, that might be the right call.

Comment From The Boat
Who gets Price?

Dave Cameron: I’ll guess the Blue Jays.

Comment From mtsw
Reyes get moved again before the deadline? Rockies seem to have literally no use for him. Might as well ship him off even if you have to eat 2/3rds of his salary, no?

Dave Cameron: I bet they move him this winter. Not a lot of buyers looking for shortstops right now.

Comment From Catoblepas
Feels like a remarkably fair trade deadline, in that no deal has really felt like one side fleecing another. What’s been the most unbalanced return?

Dave Cameron: I think the Tulo trade is probably the one that most strongly favored one side, but I don’t hate it for Colorado; I mostly just think it’s evidence they screwed up by waiting so long.

Comment From Derek
Who has more trade value: Adam Lind or Gerardo Parra? Do you think Lind gets moved?

Dave Cameron: Parra; he’s a better all around player.

Dave Cameron: And yeah, I think both get dealt.

Comment From dom
Does UZR or WAR account for how well middle infielders turn double plays?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From Hurtado
With the Brewers revenues being so tied to attendance, is keeping Lucroy and Gomez a necessary part of remaining in business?

Dave Cameron: No. Fans come to see winning teams, not specific players.

Comment From chuckb
If the Tigers decide to trade Price, how will that affect the Phillies’ return for Hamels?

Dave Cameron: Having alternatives available isn’t great for Philly, but it won’t hurt him that much. They’ll get what they were always going to get; a couple good-not-great prospects and some lottery tickets.

Comment From The Boat
After last night, Iwakuma has a 5+ ERA. Does anyone want him?

Dave Cameron: Yes, because most teams know not to evaluate pitchers by ERA.

Comment From dom
How could guys like Shields who just signed big free agent contracts have any trade value? They went to the highest bidder, no one else was willing to pay them that, and now most of a front end year has elapsed. Teams have a better idea of their needs now and situations change but Shields can’t have much trade value I would imagine

Dave Cameron: He doesn’t have much, but the deadline market isn’t the same thing as the off-season market. Buying over the winter is like cooking at home, while buying in July is like eating out at a restaurant. Yes, if you had planned ahead, you wouldn’t need to spend $10 on a mediocre sandwich, but you’re not at home anymore, you don’t have access to a kitchen, and you’re hungry, so this is what’s available.

Comment From Randy
should Milwaukee have traded Lucroy after last year? He’s nothing close to his peak right now and I feel like they missed a huge opportunity to cash in.

Dave Cameron: Yep. Lots of these mid-market teams are hanging onto players way too long. Rockies did it with Tulo, Brewers did it with Lucroy, Reds doing it with Frazier.

Comment From hscer
Michael Morse: August trade for cash considerations?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’ll clear waivers easily, so no problem for Dodgers to DFA him upon acquisition and then trade him next week.

Comment From Fitch+McTeer
Any word yet on what “prospects” the Dodgers are sending the Marlins? Any guesses? Will it be anyone significant or does taking on Morse make this 3 nobodies?

Dave Cameron: They’ll be non-prospects. You don’t take on Morse’s money and give up talent just to get Latos.

Comment From Natitude Adjuster
Dear Abby, I want the Nats to win the World Series. But I don’t want the everlasting memory of the final out recorded to be Papelbon going down on his knees and raising his arms, a la 2004. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Root for a final game blowout.

Comment From Bill
Does Price get Scherzer money? More than Greinke, right?

Dave Cameron: Price will get more than Scherzer. Maybe not nominally, but he won’t take the deferred route to get over $200M, I bet.

Comment From Paul
I know you aren’t crazy about the hypotheticals, but would a Puig for Teheran trade be ridiculous?

Dave Cameron: Yes. Teheran isn’t worth that.

Comment From dom
I think 2014 David Price would disagree that 2015 David Price is the most significant deadline piece in years

Dave Cameron: I meant in aggregate. Tulo, Price, Hamels, Upton, Kazmir, plus a bunch of good relievers? I don’t think we usually see this quantity of good players moved.

Dave Cameron: Zobrist, Cueto.

Dave Cameron: Too many to keep up with.

Comment From Scrapper
Rank the Padre pitchers in terms of their trade value: Shields, Kennedy, Ross, Cashner.

Dave Cameron: Ross, Cashner, Kennedy, Shields.

Comment From Scrapper
Kyle Schwarber for Noah Syndergaard: which team says no to that deal?

Dave Cameron: The Mets don’t even think about it.

Comment From The Boat
Re: Frazier – could the Reds contend next year? If so, it might be worth it to hold onto Frazier.

Dave Cameron: I don’t see how they put a winning team together with what they have. They have ~6 good players and 20 scrubs.

Comment From hscer
Simmons for Syndegaard or DeGrom would be a __________ trade

Dave Cameron: ballsy.

Comment From dom
Will Chapman come close to commanding $100mm as a free agent?

Dave Cameron: Not as a closer, no.

Comment From Scrapper
Assuming that the Phillies were willing to swallow the entire remaining balance of the Hamels’ deal, how many prospects could they buy for Hamels (and where would those prospects rank)?

Dave Cameron: Say Hamels is worth ~$90M over the next 3 years, plus maybe $20 million for the rest of this year, so $110M for the rest of his contract. If a team was literally getting him for free, you could ask for any prospect in baseball, plus some secondary stuff.

Comment From Rob
Would you agree it’s a poor decision for the White Sox to not sell.

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Evan
Do GM’s read Fangraphs?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From chuckb
What’s with Hamels’s no – trade sticking point? Those are pretty easy to get around and it seems like Hamels wants out of Philly.

Dave Cameron: He’ll use it to force a team to pick up his fourth year option, which lowers his value to the acquiring team, which makes it less likely that the Phillies will want to take a package from that team.

Comment From CB
As a fan…how do I feel about this Tulo deal? I get that his value is down a bit from last summer (when he ranked so high in the trade value list), but this seems like a ton of risk for Colorado. Both of these arms seem like dicey bets and there’s a not insignificant chance that they never produce for the Rox. Could we have done better?

Dave Cameron: I probably would be building around bats, not arms. So I don’t know about better, but probably could have done it differently.

Comment From Slew (Seattle)
Dave, tell JJB to give up the cable – you can always get it back

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I did this a few times when I needed TBS to watch the postseason.

Dave Cameron: I’d have cable for ~3 weeks a year.

Comment From The Cincinnati Kid
Is Alex Guerrero a Dodger next spring?

Dave Cameron: Probably. He’s been terrible since the end of April, doesn’t have a position, and has that hard-to-trade contract.

Comment From Donnie Drapes
What kind of deal does Shields get if he were a FA this winter?

Dave Cameron: 3/50?

Dave Cameron: That might be light. Maybe 3/56.

Comment From Ed
Can you see a good fit in the AL for the Dodgers to spin Morse as a DH candidate? Would the Orioles be interested?

Dave Cameron: The Blue Jays seem to like RH sluggers…

Comment From break
What is reasoning behind using a 4% discount rate for the NPV of salaries? (I’m referencing the use in your recent Tulo article)

Dave Cameron: it’s what MLB and the MLBPA use.

Comment From Prich
Reyes for Shields; no $$$… who says no?

Dave Cameron: Padres.

Comment From Neal
Does Estrada get a qualifying offer?

Dave Cameron: No chance.

Comment From The Boat
Royals should still be looking for an arm, right? Behind Cueto there’s literally Edinson Volquez and Chris Young. Is Ian Kennedy a good target, since he won’t cost much?

Dave Cameron: Yordano Ventura is still alive, but yes, they should get another starter.

Comment From Raindog
Do we have a hypothesis for how Cueto always beats his FIP? He’s not LH or an extreme flyball guy…

Dave Cameron: He generates a lot of weak contact and is impossible to steal on.

Comment From Ullu Ka Patta
Why is it so out of the question to trade Urias for Hamels? Seems like you’re trading a might-be for several years of known quantity (plus, admittedly, money). It wouldn’t make sense to move him for a rental, but for a guy with a contract, why not?

Dave Cameron: Because Urias is simply more valuable than Hamels.

Dave Cameron: If the Dodgers wanted to trade Urias, they could get more in return than just one good and expensive pitcher.

Comment From The Boat
Re: Jose Reyes – he could play 2B for the Yankees, could he not?

Dave Cameron: He could, but that doesn’t seem like Cashman’s MO lately.

Comment From McLagweasel
Just based on a gut feeling, who do you think will be the top rated prospect to be moved before friday?

Dave Cameron: Jose de Leon.

Comment From Moe
Holmes-De Leon-Barnes get Dodgers Hamels? Too much? Too little?

Dave Cameron: Sounds about right.

Comment From Prich
First time the little guy has gotten one of you sick? Or is it a regular occurrence for you two?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, this is our first child-borne disease. We’ve been lucky.

Comment From Andy
Are the competitive balance picks the only draft picks that can be traded?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Prich
Is this traditionally the busiest chat of the year? If not, which is?

Dave Cameron: The Opening Day live blog is a monster.

Comment From Pookie
So you think the Pads sell Benoit not Kimbrel?

Dave Cameron: Yeah. They wouldn’t get much for Kimbrel at this point.

Comment From Julio Pepper
Something I don’t understand about the mid-season spike in value. Everyone knows that *some* teams will have higher demand for players (usually pitchers) during the season/around the trade deadline. So why doesn’t this result in those players salaries being bid up during the winter, so they can flip for a profit at the deadline? It strikes me as absurd to simultaneously hold the belief that certain kinds of assets will be more valuable in the future, and also not be willing to spend more for them now.

Dave Cameron: Players performing well in-season get more valuable, but that’s not a guarantee when you acquire a guy over the winter. You may very well end up with a Hanley Ramirez or a Brandon McCarthy instead.

Comment From Ryan
What about a Price for Puig deal? Can Puig play center putting Gose down to a 4th OF role? An outfield of Cespedes (if he resigns), Puig, and Martinez is a nice recovery from 2015. Even if we trade/can’t resign Cespedes, an OF of Puig/Gose/Martinez isn’t bad. I understand that this goes against the Tigers’s front-office sensibilities about personalities. But to borrow from Bill Simmons, a team can handle one knucklehead.

Dave Cameron: Price isn’t worth Puig.

Comment From Mags
Someone on MLB Network just made a demo trade of Niese, Conforto, Wheeler for Segura and Braun, thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Ick. The Mets are smarter than that.

Comment From Hank
How about Carlos Gonzalez to the Cubs for Javier Baez/Duane Underwood?

Dave Cameron: Cubs don’t even consider that.

Comment From The Big Dipper
Do you think Ruben Amaro reads fangraphs?

Dave Cameron: Highly doubtful.

Comment From Joe
Hypothetical: An Ace on a losing team is on the Trading Block and scheduled to start tonight. Does the selling team lose some leverage against potential buyers if they let him pitch because they’ve “taken away” an upcoming start?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the acquiring teams would rather get that start for themselves.

Comment From dave
how do you go about watching live sports without cable?

Dave Cameron: MLB.tv for baseball, and we have a Mohu antenna that gets us the broadcast channels, so I watched some occasional NBA games that way.

Comment From Jose
I want to blog about baseball from a SABR perspective in the Spanish language (as a hobbie really), is it ok if I translate your stat glossary to use in my site? I would give you full credit, frequently link to FG and even give you all the translated files if you think you could find a use for them.

Dave Cameron: Drop us a line using the contact form. This sounds like a neat idea, but let’s see if we can help you out a little more officially.

Comment From Jim
Is JD Martinez now simply this good?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s turned into a legitimate slugger.

Comment From mtsw
Ever considered a beach house? Beachfront property in NC seems relatively affordable and the beaches there are gorgeous.

Dave Cameron: I’m happy with my FG salary, but it isn’t exactly “buy a beach house” territory.

Comment From Santos
you mean Urias is more valuable than Hamels + contract, right?

Dave Cameron: Correct. Value always includes contract.

Comment From Zonk
How much trade value does Starlin Castro have? Is it negative now, given the contract?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know that it’s negative, but it’s probably close to zero. Billy Butler got 3/30 as a young bounceback FA, so maybe Castro at 4/38 is about right, but he doesn’t have much value, if any.

Comment From Section329
How is the dog coping with the baby?

Dave Cameron: She’s scared of him. His favorite toy is one of those walkers that he can run around in, and as soon as she hears him get placed in that, she runs outside and hides.

Comment From The Boat
Re: Kimbrel – why would the Padres not get much for him at this point?

Dave Cameron: Did you see what Papelbon got?

Comment From chuckb
What do you do with a pork butt when you cook it? Eat it as a roast? Sandwiches?

Dave Cameron: I live in NC. We are required by law to turn into pulled pork.

Comment From Art Vandelay
Not a hypothetical really, didn’t the Phillies push Hamels start until after the trade deadline?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From chuckb
Babies and toddlers don’t really do delicate well.

Dave Cameron: He’s very good at grabbing things with his hands, so his way of petting the dog is to grab her fur and not let go.

Comment From Phillies
So the holdup in talks for a Hamels deal seems to be insistence on a top guy like Urias or Mazara. But whatnots your thoughts on stepping down ring just a bit. A Texas deal of Williams-Brinson-Ortiz would still be netting thee good looking, rising prospects at the bottom of top 100.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s more likely the kind of deal the Phillies are going to have to accept. They can get multiple good pieces as long as they stop insisting on getting another org’s best guy.

Dave Cameron: Okay, that’s it for me today. I’ll be back on Friday afternoon for a deadline-time round-up chat, and we’ll obviously be covering all the deals the next 48 hours. Stick around. It should be nuts.