Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/17/16

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone. After taking last week off to go to Oregon and buy a house, I’m back in the sweltering heat of the east coast. Summer is the worst.

Dave Cameron: Summer on this side of the country, anyway. It was 68 in Oregon last week. I’m excited to move.

Dave Cameron: Anyway, let’s talk baseball, not miserable weather.

Gary: Can you explain the Swanson call up? His Double A numbers are just alright, Braves are going to be bad next year, and it starts his clock. Why are they doing this?

Dave Cameron: There’s no difference in service time between calling him up now and having him start at SS on Opening Day next year. If we assume they weren’t going to leave him down to delay his service time next year — and given that they’re going to be opening a new stadium, leaving him down seemed unlikely, since they’ll need to put a real product on the field next year — this gives him some experience ahead of time. I don’t think he’s ready to come in and perform well right away, but it’s better to have him slump at the end of this miserable year than the start of next year.

Mike_C: Given that it difficult at best to parse the intentions of front offices, are the Braves Promoting Swanson for the right reasons, or is this a desperate attempt to generate ticket sales during a season when revenue has been down?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Dansby Swanson is going to move the ticket sale needle. They were going to call him up in September anyway, so this gives him a few extra weeks in the big leagues.

Jacob: I’m pretty sure that you remain the only person outside of Mookie Betts’ mother that loves him more than I do. Keep fighting the good fight.

Dave Cameron: I do love me some Mookie Betts, but I also think its important to make it clear that him doing this isn’t a chance for us to say “haha, told you so!”. No one saw this coming. This is bananas.

Mike T.: Dave who is your pick to come out of the AL East?

Dave Cameron: Boston and Toronto in a race to the finish, Baltimore fighting for a wild card spot.

RD2: What happens when a player with a vesting option is cut? If it vests after being picked up by a new team is the original team still on the hook for it?

Dave Cameron: If a player is released, he signs a new contract upon joining another organization, so the stipulations covered by the old contract do not apply. A player’s contract is only transferred if he’s traded or claimed on waivers.

Mike T.: off topic – but have you booked a west coast snow ski vacation?

Dave Cameron: I’m going to be living 20 minutes from Mt. Bachelor; my entire winter will be a snow ski vacation.

Q-Ball: Apparently the D-Backs have a Aug 31 option decision on Dave Stewart and Co. Should he be fired? How much do you blame Stewart for the really bad year the D-Backs have had?

Dave Cameron: I think the D’Backs should just hit the reset button, and clean house. LaRussa isn’t a guy you want in a position of power in 2016, and his contract is apparently up this winter too. I’d let them both leave, bring in a new president/GM, and let them try to fix what TLR and Stewart broke.

Q-Ball: 538 says the increase in home runs this year is likely a result of a change in the construction of the baseball. Is that your take? Are there any other plausible explanations?

Dave Cameron: Ben and Rob don’t say that outright; they say the evidence they’ve gathered points to the ball as the most likely conclusion. Alan Nathan has pointed out that there is some data that suggests that the ball may not be different, however. At this point, the best conclusion is still that we don’t really know, though the ball being manufactured differently still remains the most likely option, I think.

Q-Ball: 105 runs, or 18% of the Cubs total output, has come in the 13 games they’ve played against the Reds. Doesn’t that inflate the stats and make the Cubs offense look better than it is?

Dave Cameron: Good teams beat bad teams. It’s true for everyone.

Kevins Dad: What chance would you give Dansby of being an All-Star in 2017? Every team still gets one, right?

Dave Cameron: Pretty low. Crawford, Seager, Diaz, Russell, Cozart if he’s not traded… there are plenty of NL shortstops better than him.

Gerb: Player 4 has entered the game. Has Betts just jumped his way into the AL MVP discussion?

Dave Cameron: He’s going to get some consideration, but I think there are too many Red Sox having good years for any Boston player to stand out in the way voters like. September can change things, but right now, I think it’s Trout for the “best player” voters, Donaldson for the “best player on a playoff team” voters, and then a bunch of guys fighting for third. I could actually see Ortiz finishing ahead of Betts.

Big Joe Monferrant: Gotta ask about Gary Sanchez, his defense has been very impressive and the bat is everything we expected. Fair to say he SHOULD be the yankees starter next year?

Dave Cameron: I think the Yankees will be aggressively trying to move Brian McCann this winter, so yeah, probably.

glenn: What do you think Judge turns out to be?

Dave Cameron: The Richie Sexson comparison rings the most true. I don’t know that he’ll ever quite be as good as Sexson was, but that’s the upside.

Jon Daniels: I like you, Dave. It’s time you stop hating my team and be my friend.

Dave Cameron: I don’t hate your team. I just think that “win every one run game” is not a sustainable plan.

Q-Ball: Is Matt Holliday the best $100 mil + FA sign in history, in terms of value? (Excluding extensions)

Dave Cameron: Maybe. He’s been excellent for STL, no question.

Vince Clortho: I know this is a painfully minor transaction, but roughly 1.5MM seems like an awful lot of money to acquire Kade Scivicque, no? Given Detroit’s injury situation, you would think Atlanta wouldn’t have to pay so much.

Dave Cameron: They were going to pay that $1.5M either way.

Jeff: I get the Braves want to generate excitement, by why not debut Swanson in April next year in exchange for an extra year of service time?

Dave Cameron: “Hey fans, thanks for this publicly funded stadium that we didn’t really need. Please come watch us in our new ballpark. Except you don’t get to see that good young SS you’ve heard so much about, because we’ve him hanging out in Triple-A to save money.” That’s not a pitch anyone wants to make.

Brendan: How would you handle the Coco Crisp situation?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably just release him and let him catch on with a contender.

Q-Ball: Is it finally time for Mike Scioscia to go, after 17 seasons?

Dave Cameron: He’s got a guaranteed deal for a lot of money. I don’t think Arte Moreno wants to pay him to sit at home.

Dave Cameron: But yes, if you take that out of the picture, I think it’s probably time for the Angels to go a different direction.

Elton: If I remember right you predicted that Chapman would get 5 years/$100M. I know the industry values elite relievers highly but that still sounds way too risky to me. Shouldn’t teams pursue 80% of his value at a fraction that cost, or do you think it’s worth it for big market contenders?

Dave Cameron: Think of what $100M buys in free agency these days. Is Chapman clearly less valuable than Jeff Samardzija?

Dave Cameron: The reality is that teams have a ton of money to spend.

Dave: If you had to start a franchise today, and had to choose between Kris Bryant and Mookie Betts, who would you choose and why?

Dave Cameron: I’d still take Bryant. I love Mookie, but Bryant’s power is a lot easier to see lasting long-term.

Mike: Hi Dave! Yasmani Grandal hasn’t been all that healthy in his tenure with the Dodgers, but when he has, GOOD GOD can he hit! He’s trailing others in the WAR category (in fewer games… He still doesn’t qualify for the batting title), but we know he’s a plus pitch framer. Without totally disregarding his health issues, would you it’s crazy to put him up with Posey (who’s having his own power-outage issue this year) as an elite catcher?

Dave Cameron: Yes, that’s crazy. Grandal is an above average catcher, but he’s nowhere near Posey.

Julio Pepper: Why don’t more teams try to lock players down? Shouldn’t the Red Sox have tried to extend Betts and Bogaerts a while ago, or the Orioles after Machado’s first 6 win season in 2013?

Dave Cameron: It takes two. Very possible they were approached and rebuffed.

RichDAnna: What is your Cubs playoff rotation, assuming Lackey’s injury scare is nothing…

Dave Cameron: Arrieta, Lester, Hendricks, Lackey, with Hammel in the pen.

Alex: Who should Braves keep for CF, Ender or Mallex?

Dave Cameron: No real reason to have to choose; not like they have other good OFs fighting for at-bats.

Andrew: Any predictions for what Edwin Enarnacion might now get in free agency?

Dave Cameron: Still think he gets a shorter deal. I think I guessed 3/$60M a while back.

Mark Armour: In your recent Trade Value rankings you had Betts #7 and Rizzo #6 — no big deal, though you added that there was a “pretty significant gap” between them. Considering Betts is three years younger, has less service time, has a more well-rounded game, is a plus defender and seems to be at least as good a player right now, what accounts for this “significant gap”?

Dave Cameron: Teams value bats over gloves, so an elite hitting 1B will garner more in trade value than a good all-around player who racks up value through defense and baserunning. But Mookie’s hit like 20 homers since I wrote that, so the gap is probably smaller now.

Matt: I hear people constantly referring to a change in the ball as reason for this, or reason for that. Isn’t the baseball a highly controlled part of the MLB? How would the ball change without people knowing it? Is that somehting the MLB would change and not announce? This whole thing just confuses me.

Dave Cameron: As Alan Nathan noted in his talk at Saber Seminar this weekend, the allowed variance in the COR of the ball is pretty large. Rawlings could have had an equipment change that caused the balls to be manufactured differently, and have it still fall within the acceptable range.

kevinthecomic: Wouldn’t it be relatively easy to find out if the baseball has been juiced this year? I mean, someone has to have a 2015 ball and it’s probably easy enough to get a 2016 ball. Then give it to a bunch of scientists to reverse engineer both and see what, if any, differences there are.

Dave Cameron: MLB says they’ve done exactly this, and they say the ball isn’t any different. Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur tested a few balls for their 538 study too, and couldn’t definitively prove that there’s a big change. Realistically, if MLB felt that this was becoming a huge issue, they could put this all to rest by allowing the testing process to be transparent and show that the balls are the same. That they haven’t done this is at least a little suspicious, but it’s not proof of anything.

Ed in Iowa: Did you have your five year remission party? If not, my toddler would like to suggest a fancy, costume, pool party.

Dave Cameron: My checkup is Tuesday.

A. Reitz: Re: Braves stadium. Didn’t really need? Have you been to Turner Field? All I’ll say is…don’t go for a stroll after a night game. Yeesh.

Dave Cameron: I have been to Turner Field, yes. Instead of dropping hundreds of millions to move the team, the city could have invested in the area around the ballpark instead.

Zonk: Jason Hammel hasn’t given up a run in his last 3 starts…and you put him in the ‘pen for the playoffs?

Dave Cameron: That rotation is good.

Zonk: Clubs keep pulling fences in, how much of the increased power comes from park changes?

Dave Cameron: None. Balls that are hit to the deep outfield are flying over the fence at the same proportion as before; the change is that more balls are being hit to the deep OF now.

njs: i don’t know the PC thing to say to a cancer survivor w/ 5 yrs in remission (congrats?) but whatever is the nicest thing you would want to hear in this situation, consider it said (thanks)!

Dave Cameron: Congrats works just fine. Thank you.

Josh: Any questions asking why the Dodgers aren’t good today? *crickets*

Dave Cameron: Many fewer of them than earlier in the year. The fact that the Dodgers are in first place despite all the injuries they’ve suffered is pretty amazing.

Chet: Thoughts on the Zach Britton Cy Young debate?

Dave Cameron: There shouldn’t be one; relievers are simply not as valuable as starters.

Andrew S: Not that it matters, but could Porcello actually make a run at 300 wins? He’s young, athletic, has a track record of health and already has over 100 wins. Could he be a guy that has a nice long tail end to his career and be a classic accumulator of stats

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t forecast any pitcher to win 300 games.

Dave Cameron: It’s 15 wins a year for 20 years. That’s almost impossible these days.

AC: If MLB did come out and say they adjusted the ball to allow for more home runs. How much backlash would there be from team FOs, seeing as they base their evaluations of players based on past performance, and a tip towards more home runs might affect how they valued a fly ball pitcher/hitter?

Dave Cameron: I’m sure they’d be annoyed, but it’d be hard to argue it hurt any one team more than the others. No teams came out and publicly complained that the league got owners to expand the strike zone a few years back.

Elton: Didn’t MLB have incentive to reduce home runs for a few years (to prove they “solved” the PED problem) and then let them increase again, because casual fans love the long ball?

Dave Cameron: Yes, I don’t think it’s that hard to come up with a pretty convincing theory that the rise and fall of offense the last few years has been controlled by MLB. Proving it is harder.

eddie: Who is your current MVP in the AL?

Dave Cameron: Trout.

njs: if there were a change to the ball, would you want transparency? (alternatively, do you like the mystery and/or do you think MLB doing it unilaterally is a thing best kept in the dark)?

Dave Cameron: I think if the league knows the ball is being manufactured differently, then they owe it to the public to not outright lie about it when asked directly. But we don’t know what they know.

Dave Cameron: I’m not going to accuse them of lying about this without proof, which we don’t have.

Colt Holt: What about records? If they change the ball, shouldn’t all records have asterisks? The ball they used in 2015 was the exact same as what was used since 1915, right?

Dave Cameron: Nope. Alan Nathan tested some balls from the 70s and found huge variations in the CORs; the idea that there’s been one single consistent ball in use forever is a myth.

Toki: Speaking of the ball, is exit velocity up across the league and also are players just squaring more balls?

Dave Cameron: Exit velocity is up a bit, yes. The question is why.

Ed: What are the things you will miss most about NC? I’m guessing the heat/humidity will be the thing you miss the least?

Dave Cameron: Chick-Fil-A.

Tyler: When will we get advanced defensive metrics that use statcast as their data source?

Dave Cameron: My guess would be next year. Tango is pretty transparent about what he’s working on now that he’s with MLBAM, and it sounds like there’s still some work to do.

Gareth: The green monster should be renamed “the Mookie monster.”

Dave Cameron: Pretty sure that’s what they’re calling the LF wall in Baltimore.

I am the walrus: Fowler opt’s out next yr. Baez deserves AB’s but with Schwarber will take maybe 75% of LF AB’s, meaning less OF time for Bryant and Zobrist and less AB’s in IF for Baez. So what’s the best options here? Making Baez the CF and wasting his IF glove work? Or flipping Baez for a CF (I can’t image who) or flipping him for minor league pitching while his value is high? Or keeping him as super sub and giving him maybe 375 Ab’s and harming is trade value?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think there’s anything wrong with keeping him around as depth and figuring it out depends on who is healthy and playing well. The idea that Schwarber is definitely going to be fine in LF isn’t one I’d bet on, and injuries always happen.

Art Vandelay: You’re in luck, chick fil-a is expanding north up the West coast. They just opened the first two in my neck of the woods in Northern CA.

Dave Cameron: Probably be a while before they get one in Bend, though. It’s a town of 85K people and appeals to the outdoor enthusiast crowd, who aren’t known as fried chicken fans.

kevinthecomic: Any plans to go squatching now that you live in Oregon?

Dave Cameron: I don’t live in Oregon yet; moving next month. At some point, you’re going to be subjected to some live chats and podcasts from my car as I drive across the country with the dog and Jeff Sullivan.

Dave Cameron: Alright, have some writing to take care of. Thanks for hanging out this week, everyone.