Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/2/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Before we get to the chat, I wanted to note that I unfortunately won’t be able to attend this weekends Saber Seminar or the Pitch Talks event in NYC on Monday as originally planned. My dad had a stroke last week, and I’m in Seattle helping out for a bit. Given the fact that Carson is also on paternity leave learning how to be a Dad and that a good chunk of our staff is traveling to Boston this week, I’ll ask for a little more grace than usual this week if things aren’t running at 100% on FG. We’ll get back to normal soon enough.

Dave Cameron: I will really miss being at Saber Seminar, and hopefully if you were planning on saying hi this weekend, we can catch up in the not too distant future.

Dave Cameron: With that out of the way, let’s talk some baseball for a little bit.

striker: Love Eric’s rankings of prospects dealt during the trade deadline season. Based on that write up, looks like Hahn did really good with his returns for all of his deals so far. Would you give him an A so far? What, if anything, would you have done differently?

Dave Cameron: I think he got the best deal he probably could have in almost every trade he’s made, maybe save the Frazier/Kahnle/Robertson swap. I do think the prospects he’s acquired are generally more well regarded by fans than is justified by their value within the game, and he’s bought a lot of of very high-risk prospects, so the White Sox failure rate might be higher than you’d expect from a farm system this good. But clearly, they have some pieces with very high upside as well, and if a few of their gambles pay off, they’ll find some stars to build around.

AAR: Do you think the Tigers’ impending rebuild will have any affect on Upton’s opt-out decision?

Dave Cameron: Potentially. I’m not sure he can do a lot better than 4/$88M this winter, but if he thinks he can get 4/$80M from a contender, maybe that’s worth it to him to not have to deal with asking for a trade and hoping the Tigers eat the $8M to move him?

Murdoc: Does Cody Allen need his role reevaluated?

Dave Cameron: He hasn’t been good since April. Joe Smith might be the Indians second best reliever right now.

Dave Cameron: That said, Miller is more valuable in the non-closer role, so you probably keep Allen in the 9th inning spot and hope he’s okay.

wowee: It seems almost everyone understands the trades that were made, even the JD Martinez one. But there seems to be a lot of disagreement over the return the A’s got for Sonny Gray. How serious are the injuries to Fowler and Kaprielian, and how much does it affect their value around the game? Does everyone just think they’re going to heal up and get on with developing, or did the A’s get damaged goods?

Dave Cameron: Obviously the injuries affect their value, and Fowler’s is particularly troublesome, given that it’s not a common baseball injury.

Dave Cameron: But I like the package they got back. I think Fowler was wildly underrated before he got hurt, and he wouldn’t have been available had he stayed healthy.

Bret: I know you’ve taken the side that the Jays should look to rebuild for a little while now. Does it follow, to you, that the Jays should be shopping Josh Donaldson this offseason? If so, should they go further and discuss guys like Stroman & Osuna? On the flip-side, does it look like there’s enough there to try and take another run with Donaldson in 2018 with some effective offseason maneuvering?

Dave Cameron: I get the desire to want to keep building, but I have a hard time seeing the 2018 Blue Jays as a good team. They have a lot of holes, not a lot of money to spend, and not a lot of chips to trade. And it’s not like Boston or New York should be expected to get worse next year.

Dave Cameron: I’d blow it up.

Mounds: Who will be the next player to hit 60 dongs?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know how the answer is anyone but Aaron Judge.

Mike: Dave! Are we still thinking Sale is front runner for AL CY? Paxton makes a good case…

Dave Cameron: It’s Sale’s award to lose. He’ll have to implode in September or something to not win it.

John: Did padres make mistake not trading Brad Hand if they were not receiving top 100 prospect in return?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what kind of non-top 100 prospects they were offered, and how many. But given the buyer’s market at the deadline, I wouldn’t be too hard on anyone who decided to hold, thinking the winter market might be just as strong.

Dodgers Win total: How many wins do the Dodgers finish with this season?

Dave Cameron: I’ll guess 108. No real reason to push their guys down the stretch. Would imagine all the starters get a lot of days off in September.

Rasta: Which contenders have the biggest holes that you could see filled by pre-8/31 trades? Any players in particular that you could see clearing waivers and moving?

Dave Cameron: I bet Verlander gets moved this month. Maybe to Houston?

TJ: With as bad as production as BOS and NYY have gotten at 1b – why is Duda mashing for the Rays at the cost of a High A relief arm?

Dave Cameron: Headley isn’t a zero, and they are talking that Bird might be back by the end of the month.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Can players be bought out? Example, the Tigers tell Upton they’ll give him $20 million to opt out if his contract?

Dave Cameron: The union opposes players ever taking a reduced contract than what they are already owed, so Upton would have to show that he’d be better off with whatever the Tigers offer than he would be otherwise. If they offered him $20 million to opt out, he’d almost certainly come out ahead, but I’m pretty sure MLB wouldn’t allow that kind of payment.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Is the Brewers recent offensive malaise something that is explainable by day-to-day baseball randomness and/or arbitrary endpoint related SSS noise, or is there something more systemic happening? After being one of the better offenses in baseball most of the season, they’ve really looked bad lately.

Dave Cameron: You can only count on guys to overproduce for so long.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Would you say there is any percentage (even a fraction of a percent) of the Hand non-trade that can be attributed to gun-shyness on the part of other teams’ front offices with regards to dealing with AJ Preller and his track record of less than above-board dealings?

Dave Cameron: Probably not much.

TKDC: Are you surprised the Braves seemingly abandoned the Freddie Freeman: third baseman experiment so quickly? The incredibly SSS data say he’s okay and the eye test says he looked a bit rigid and uncomfortable at times but definitely capable. Also, if you move him back to first and put Adams in the outfield, there is no way that is a net positive, right?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s kind of weird that they’re trying Adams in left again, but maybe they realize that he’s not a regular on a good team, so he’ll just go back to being a bench guy when Kemp comes back.

Brent: Please show me the logic in sticking Matt Adams in LF. I know we have too many inf on the roster, but part of that is their own fault. They rushed S Rod back, who hasn’t found his swing yet and/or still isn’t 100%, and Albies did not have to be promoted. He’s hit better since his ugly start but he wasn’t dominating. What am I missing?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know. I don’t really get it either. Felt like Phillips could have been an August trade guy, so not sure why they had to bring Albies up before moving him.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Trade deadline hot take peddlers tend to not be too friendly to teams who simply hold their cards at the trade deadline – what teams would you say made the right choice by staying either completely or mostly inactive?

Dave Cameron: People criticizing the Giants for not doing anything should explain what valuable thing the Giants had to actually sell.

Dave Cameron: Samardzija said he wouldn’t waive his no-trade clause.

Dave Cameron: They aren’t trading Posey. There was no market for hitters anyway. Their relievers suck.

Xolo: Will the Padres be able to get anything for Hand this winter?

Dave Cameron: As long as he doesn’t get hurt, of course.

Connie Mac N’ Cheese: Who do you see as the team the Dodgers would fear facing (if any) in the playoffs?  It suddenly looks like it’s the Cubs, right?That would be quite the rematch in the NLCS.

Dave Cameron: The NLCS is going to be amazing no matter who is in.

Dave Cameron: I guess maybe one of the meh wild card teams could spoil it but any combo of LA/WAS/CHC should be great.

Phil: Is it a “quick win” to recommend adding their current team to the top of player pages? Many times I look up names I see dropped elsewhere or randomly, and it is not so quick to see who they play for, and if they have been traded it can be impossible (on FG anyway) as it just states “2 teams” or whatever. Seems easy enough and is standard format on most sites. Thanks!

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’ll make that suggestion.

Matt: Would love to hear your thoughts on how the Yanks should use Judge, Frazier, Gardy, Ells, and Hicks over the next month (assuming Hicks comes back, and is deserving of starting).

Dave Cameron: Judge obviously plays everyday. I’d run Hicks out in CF and Gardner in LF most days, with Ellsbury as the fourth OF, and Frazier can go hang out back in the minors. Plenty of tools, but he could use some polish, and the team has good players in front of him.

Caveman Jones: Do you think Devers will finish the season with a wRC+ >110?

Dave Cameron: yes.

jjp: are all of the forecasts up to date with the trades and new playing time?

Dave Cameron: They should mostly be, at this point.

ScottyG: What can the Cardinals do this offseason to get out of this “funk?”  What do you think they will do?

Dave Cameron: They have a lot of good players and not many great ones. I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried a consolidation trade, maybe packaging someone like Weaver with Grichuk or something.

LegallyEagle: Should the Dodgers put Alex Wood in an Andrew Miller/Chris Devenski role for the playoffs? If not Wood, which of Maeda/Ryu have their stuff play “up” best in the pen?

Dave Cameron: I think Wood is too good to move to the pen at this point. I think you probably stick Maeda down there.

My name is also Dave: Im fascinated by the way you view prospects seeing how it’s very different than public list. So who are Dave Cameron’s 5 best prospects in baseball?

Dave Cameron: Assuming we don’t count any of the recently promoted guys (Devers, Moncada, Albies, Rosario, etc…)

1. Guerrero
2. Acuna
3. Torres
4. Tucker
5. Verdugo

Tom: Thoughts on Molina’s instagram posts?

Dave Cameron: He’s trying to get Matheny fired.

Dave Cameron: It probably works.

Raindog: Last week you said something like “would Detroit fans really want to watch a declining Verlander play for a bad team”, and I have to think the answer is yes.  As an O’s fan I was glad Ripken was around even when he and the team were bad.  I suspect other fans might feel similarly about franchise icons during down years…

Dave Cameron: Well, I don’t think Verlander is anywhere close to Ripken.

Dave Cameron: If Verlander was a top 10 pitcher of all time, okay, I can see the sentiment.

Michael Scarn: Should the White Sox be concerned about Moncada at this point?  It’s obviously still super early in his career but that K rate is just not improving and his minor league success is full of .370+ BABIPs

Dave Cameron: If you want to laugh, check out his Z-Swing%.

Dave Cameron: Yoan Moncada swings at strikes less than Pablo Sandoval swings at balls.

Dave Cameron: There’s a pretty clear approach issue that needs fixing.

Mark: Is Devers at this point basically a lock to be the starting 3B in 2018 for the Red Sox?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

John: Some Cubs fans seem to think the Cubs overpaid for Quintana based on the fact that the Gray trade didn’t have a top 5-10 prospect like Jimenez.  Am I wrong to think that the Cubs gave up more because they got a better and far more valuable player?

Dave Cameron: No, you’re right. Quintana has an extra year of control and wasn’t hurt last year. Plus, I think a healthy Fowler isn’t that much worse of a prospect than Eloy Jimenez. Obviously, the A’s aren’t getting a currently-healthy Fowler, but if he can get back to what he was before, I think the packages aren’t as different as people might think now.

Hank: Who would you rather have in a 7 game series… Kershaw/Darvish or Scherzer/Strasburg

Dave Cameron: Probably Kershaw/Darvish.

FireDrayton: Astros fans are in the midst of a post-deadline civil war. Where do you come down on their relative inactivity?

Dave Cameron: I don’t side with the “you have to do something when you’re in contention” mindset, because there aren’t always traded worth making. But this year, in a buyer’s market where so many good players changed teams for cheap, I don’t know why Houston sat out. Addison Reed would have helped. Lucas Duda would have helped. Jamie Garcia might have even helped.

Dave Cameron: And that’s just the minor stuff, not including Darvish/Gray.

Noah: When you say blow it up, does that include Stroman?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

RMR: Given his quad injury and the lack of a market for hitters, it seems likely Cozart finishes his season in Cincinnati.  Should the Reds provide him a QO?  It’s a risk for their budget, but his hitting shows no signs of regressing and his defense is still solid.  If they can swing the budget, it seems smarter to get 1-2 wins out of him for $9M and then flip him next summer than to just let him walk — or to sign him to a long-term deal.

Dave Cameron: I can’t imagine him not just automatically accepting a QO, so no, you don’t offer it.

Ghost of Christmas Past: If Verdugo is top 5 for you, does that mean you think he develops power? And if he does, what would that change about his comps? He reminds me of a cross between Yelich and Markakis right now.

Dave Cameron: Well, he’s top 5 after a bunch of the other really good guys got promoted. But yeah, I think it’s reasonable to project him for league-average power, and with everything else he does well, that’s a very nice piece.

Duke : Where do you see Willie Calhoun slotting into Texas lineup in 2018? Seems he has nothing left to prove in AAA…

Dave Cameron: Would guess he’ll be their left fielder.

Dave Cameron: And they’ll hope it’s not a disaster.

KingKenta: Its crazy when people are like the Dodgers FINALLY made a move at the deadline…didnt they get Rich Hill last year who was better than Darvish? Do we forget Manny and Hanley Ramirez?

Dave Cameron: And Alex Wood the year before that.

Dave Cameron: The narrative has always been wrong.

bob loblaw: no robles in your top 5 prospects….surprising.  no question here

Dave Cameron: He’d probably be 6 or something. That wasn’t a way to convey that I’m way down on Robles or anything.

Moltar: I know he’s more of an old-school-stats standout, but I’m kinda surprised there was no interest at all in Jay Bruce. He’s already posted over 2 WAR with a 124 wRC+, and I have to think a team like Colorado or Houston could use some extra power in their line-up. He could probably be had for the cost of his contract, maybe even less. Has the game really changed so much that there’s no value there at all?

Dave Cameron: He’s not a true talent 124 wRC+ guy going forward, the glove isn’t good, and he’s expensive.

Dave Cameron: Alright, sorry for the shorter chat this week, but I have to get some things done before I go see my Dad in the hospital this afternoon. Thanks for all the kind messages in the queue, everyone; I saw them even if i didn’t publish them.