Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/24/16

12:02
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone. Let’s talk some baseball for an hour or so.

12:02
Ed in Iowa: I have several questions/comments this week, but most importantly: Was there good news yesterday? Is it time to start planning that fancy, costume, pool party?

12:03
Dave Cameron: For those who aren’t sure what Ed is referencing, I had my five year remission checkup yesterday. It was, indeed, good news. I’ll never be really “cured”, as there’s always a small lingering chance of recurrence, but the five year mark is the point where 95% of AML patients end up living a nice healthy life until something else kills them.

12:04
Dave Cameron: So yeah, we’re going to have a big party.

12:05
britishcub: Are NL pitchers stats more predictive of future performance if you look at non pitcher at bats only or do you just lose information?

12:05
Dave Cameron: I would imagine it probably doesn’t make a big difference one way or another, but I haven’t seen it studied.

12:05
Greg: It sounds like Kershaw is nearing a return. In your opinion, what does he need to do to get the Cy Young?

12:05
Dave Cameron: I’m an NL Cy Young voter again this year, so I can’t be too definitive. But if he ends up throwing another 30 good innings before the year is out, I think he’ll probably be the favorite.

12:06
Jon: Historically, how do teams like the Cubs that might not have the best contact rate but rely heavily on OBP perform in the postseason against better pitching?

12:06
Dave Cameron: Good question. I’ll mark it as a thing to look at.

12:07
Zonk: I know you are not as high on Addison Russell as some others, but since the ASB he’s batting an ISO of .260, with a wRC+ of 134. Just a hot streak, or is he powering up for real?

12:07
Dave Cameron: With a relatively low contact rate, adding power was always going to be the thing that needed to happen (outside of fixing the contact issues, anyway) to make Russell a legitimate star. It’s too early to say that he’s flipped the switch, but this is obviously a good sign for the Cubs. As if they needed more things to go right.

12:08
Alex: Pomeranz – experiencing some pains of switching to tougher competition or what? He doesn’t look so great out there

12:08
Dave Cameron: Since getting to Boston, he’s run an ERA- of 95 and an xFIP- of 100. Maybe your expectations were too high?

12:08
Dave Cameron: Because this is perfectly fine.

12:09
Q-Ball: Your current ERA leader in baseball among qualified pitchers by a wide margin is…Kyle Hendricks. Not a question, just very surprising, isn’t it?

12:09
Dave Cameron: He’s wildly underrated, but he’s also benefiting from good defense.

12:09
Bernard Gilkey: Any chance we could get you and Sullivan and friends to do a Portland FG meetup? Maybe for a World Series game?

12:10
Dave Cameron: I don’t know if I’ll make it over to Portland in the playoffs, but I’d think the odds of a meetup are very high.

12:10
Q-Ball: What does your crystal ball tell you Yasiel Puig’s future is? He’s raking in AAA

12:11
Dave Cameron: I don’t think I want to presume that I know anything about the rate at which Puig will mature as a human being, and it seems like that is one of the primary factors that led him to the minors in the first place.

12:11
LioneeR: Congrats on the (non) cancer news. Do you do anything to celebrate these checkups?

12:12
Dave Cameron: I had a very exciting night of changing a diaper, reading Drew the same book 20 times, and working on move-across-the-country logistics. I know how to party.

12:12
Mike: What kind of contract will Justin Turner sign this off-season?

12:13
Dave Cameron: I was just thinking about that the other day; he’s going to be a fascinating case. The fact that he’s an older late-bloomer with knee problems will hurt him, I think, but the bat is clearly legit at this point. Gut feeling is he gets something like the Zobrist deal.

12:13
Mike: Is there a recency bias in the chat queue?

12:13
Dave Cameron: Well this question was asked 28 minutes ago and I just saw it so I don’t think so.

12:14
Jim: Corey Seager: 150 games, 8.2 WAR

Remember when the price for David Price was him, Urias and Pederson?

12:14
Dave Cameron: People love to point out the bust rate of prospects, but this is why you keep them.

12:15
Dave Aunepetitegraine: Gary Sanchez already has the 6th best WAR for catchers.. When is someone going to write about him?

12:15
Dave Cameron: August is working on something for tomorrow, I believe.

12:16
Sean P: With a pitcher like Kyle Hendricks, who has demonstrated a huge discrepancy this year between his ERA and his FIP, is there a way for us to recalibrate his WAR value? For instance, this year if Hendricks is a 3 WAR player based on FIP, can we say that he is probably worth additional wins based on his ability to generate weak contact and thus beat FIP? Or is it too difficult to calibrate based on his unique skills and the fact that he has the Cubs defense behind him?

12:17
Dave Cameron: Sure, you can definitely look at the amount of difference between his FIP-based WAR and his RA9-based WAR and try to figure out how much of that gap is Hendricks versus his defenders. FIP-based WAR isn’t a comprehensive evaluation of everything a pitcher can do to prevent runs, so it shouldn’t be looked at as the last word on the topic of a pitcher’s value. It’s a starting place, not a finishing place.

12:17
Erik: How did Stewart and La Russa get into positions of power with the Diamondbacks in the first place? Does their original hiring suggest that the Diamondbacks’ ownership values their sort of thinking, and would be likely to hire similarly outside-the-box in the wrong direction thinkers as their replacements?

12:18
Dave Cameron: Well, given that the ownership group hired Kevin Towers before LaRussa, it seems possible that they overvalue personality when hiring.

12:18
Mike: Are you regretting your decision to rank Carlos Correa ahead of Corey Seager in your list of most valuable players in a trade?

12:19
Dave Cameron: No, because literally every person in baseball I talked to preferred Correa, and they’re the ones who would make the decision. But it seems pretty clear that Seager is also really quite good, and perhaps the gap isn’t as large as the raw tools make it look.

12:20
Rob: Congrats to you Dave! An incredible feeling, I’m sure. My baseball question is in regards to the White Sox. Everyone, understandably talks about selling Quintana and Sale, what about Eaton? Is he worth keeping or should he go to if a full rebuild happens?

12:20
Dave Cameron: I think guys like Eaton don’t bring back as much value in trade as they’re worth on the field.

12:21
Dave Cameron: If you’re blowing it up Astros-style, okay, trade him, but if the goal is to win in the next few years, then you probably keep him.

12:21
Tom: Sandy Leon is 5th in WAR among catchers. Thoughts?

12:21
Dave Cameron: Good year for Sandy Leon, bad year for catchers.

12:21
SDinSEA: If given the option, do you trade Wil Meyers for Trea Turner and Joe Ross? Which side has the more value?

12:21
Dave Cameron: Turner and Ross by a lot.

12:22
Alex: Is there ever occasions where all of the fangraphs writers get together in person, since I assume you guys live in different parts of the country because you work from home.

12:22
Dave Cameron: We’ve done an annual spring training get together for the last 6-7 years, though this year that was replaced by the Staten Island Yankees nerd day in June.

12:23
Mike: With Rich Hill pitching tonight and Kershaw on track to return in September, how do the Dodgers match up with the Cubs in a playoff series?

12:23
Dave Cameron: Have to see those guys make multiple starts in a row before we start penciling them in for October. But if those guys are healthy, and they can keep Maeda throwing decently, that could be a great series.

12:24
Nelson: I may be cherrypicking, but do the return on invetsments of Leake, Samardzjida, Chen, Kennedy affect the contracts given out this winter to number 3/4 type starters?

12:24
Dave Cameron: I don’t think so. There’s just so much money in baseball right now, it has to go somewhere.

12:25
Concerned Braves fan: What’s your take on the Braves front office? Under Coppy, it *seems* more old-school, scouting-centric than I anticipated. Are they out of touch, or am I just overreacting to the Kemp deal, McCann rumors, and what appears to be an undervaluation of defense?

12:27
Dave Cameron: Coppolella has always been a scouting guy, so it shouldn’t be a big surprise that he’s emphasizing that. Keep in mind that they did trade for Ender Inciarte and rebuff a bunch of offers for him, though, so I wouldn’t say we know for sure that they undervalue defense. I think they just have different defensive evaluations of Markakis and Kemp than we do, or maybe more accurately, they think they can fix Kemp’s defense.

12:27
JD15: If you’re starting a team today, who would you prefer for your team: Seager or Bryant? Bryant is probably the best all around player in the NL, but Seager is last year’s Bryant at a more premium position (and 2 years younger).

12:28
Dave Cameron: I’d take Bryant. Seager’s been amazing since getting to the big leagues, but the +8 WAR season has been reliant on a .370 BABIP and a +12 UZR, neither of which are likely to last.

12:28
Bruce: Congrats on the 5-years Dave. Did you meet your wife before your diagnosis?

12:29
Dave Cameron: Yep. She’s the one who realized I had leukemia to begin with.

12:29
SchwarbGod: Do you think I’ll really play 40% of the time behind the plate next year like was recently stated?

12:29
Dave Cameron: No.

12:29
Andrew: What is more likely an illusion (and thus more likely to revert back to career/minor league norms) in your opinion: Bryant’s K% or Mookie’s ISO?

12:29
Dave Cameron: Mookie’s ISO.

12:30
Nelson: Would Ryan Braun get much less than the currect 4/85 left on his contract if he were a FA this winter?

12:30
Dave Cameron: Yeah.

12:30
Outta my way, Gyorkass: More Brewers questions – what’s your general outlook as to when they can expect to make a serious run to the playoffs again? 2017 seems far-fetched, but do they have the horses to make a playoff run in 2018 or 2019?

12:30
Dave Cameron: I don’t think 2018 is entirely unreasonable if they can get Arcia turned around and add a few more solid pieces.

12:30
Theo: The fangraphs Zip hoodie is really comfy and freaking awesome so thx

12:30
Dave Cameron: Good to hear!

12:31
Hmm: Is the race between Seager and Bryant for MVP closer than we think or is Bryant a runaway? I feel like Seager does more for his time than Bryant, who has Rizzo (arguably another MVP candidate) hitting behind him

12:31
Dave Cameron: There’s no real evidence that the quality of the hitter behind you is a significant determinant in a batter’s performance.

12:32
Roke: It doesn’t have a large effect on pace of play, but why do pitchers coming in from the bullpen get warm-up pitches on the mound? They have a whole bullpen to do that.

12:32
Dave Cameron: Different mound.

12:33
JC: Great to hear you are doing better. I could only imagine the feeling being told you have a Jeff Francouer’s OBP chance of getting out of it…

12:33
Dave Cameron: I preferred to look at like AML had a one run lead and a terrible closer on the mound.

12:34
JP: Giants were obviously lucky in the first half, and have crashed hard in the second half. Regression isn’t supposed to work like this, but here we are. Do you think their current position (1st WC) is about right?

12:34
Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think I had them as a mid-80s win team going into the season, and that is roughly what they still look like to me.

12:35
Sleeper Star: Playoff Odds Question: The Red Sox and Blue Jays are tied for the AL East lead, with the Red Sox projected to finish with 1.1 more wins on the season. Obviously a lot of luck and uncertainty in there, but that’s what the odds are… Despite that uncertainty, and with the Indians and Rangers each expected to win their respective divisions by 5+ Games, and with the Indians projected to finish as the AL’s #1 seed, the Red Sox have the best projected World Series odds of any team in the American League… What gives?

12:35
Dave Cameron: Team quality matters in the postseason too, and our projections think BOS is the best team in the AL by a decent margin.

12:36
Erik: Which of the current crop of top young shortstops will JP Crawford most resemble?

12:36
Dave Cameron: Probably Francisco Lindor.

12:37
Alex: Not trying to sound defensive, but a 4.23 ERA (equating to the 95 ERA-) doesn’t seem at all what the Red Sox thought they were acquiring. Is that really too high expectations?

12:38
Dave Cameron: A 95 ERA- is an above-average big league starter. If they were expecting something like an 80 ERA-, for a guy with multiple years of team control at cheap prices, the price would have been way higher than an 18 year old pitcher in A-ball.

12:39
Dan: Russell’s O-Contact has improved by 9% this year, FYI.

12:39
Dave Cameron: O-Contact going up isn’t always a good thing; it’s one of the reasons for Harper’s regression this year, in fact. Z-Contact improvements much better.

12:41
JBD: What would be your first thought if you saw a guy with a really high O-Contact% on a very high O-Swing%?

12:41
Dave Cameron: He’s probably a guy with great bat-to-ball skills who hasn’t learned the value of taking pitches yet.

12:41
Eric: Which trade deadline deal looks the worst today, based exclusively on what’s happened in the last 23 days?

12:41
Dave Cameron: Well Rich Hill hasn’t pitched yet and Reddick has been awful, so that one.

12:42
KJ: Billy Hamilton’s improvement over the past 6 weeks. Any reason to believe it’s sustainable and not just a hot streak? And did you see his diving catch last night?!

12:43
Dave Cameron: That was an insane catch. The sample is too small to say that he’s figured out how to draw walks, and even if he’s made an adjustment, pitchers will throw him more strikes once they realize he’s trying to take pitches.

12:43
robstl: How is Kris Bryant considered to have provided the same value as Trout? Bryant’s a substantially worse hitter, a worse base runner, and only a marginally better defender at an easier position.

12:44
Dave Cameron: Trout has a 165 wRC+, Bryant is at 155. That’s not substantially worse; that’s a few runs. And UZR thinks he’s been an excellent fielder, so the defensive difference has made up most of the gap.

12:44
Ray: When are you going to write about how the MLB media overreacted about the Dodgers offseason decisions?

12:45
Dave Cameron: I generally try to stay away from “I told you so” pieces.

12:45
Zach: There have been tons of questions regarding Hendricks recently. IF he was to continue what he was doing until the end of the year, and say Kershaw doesn’t come back super strong or have enough innings….Can Hendricks legitimately win the NL Cy young?

12:46
Dave Cameron: He’s in the mix, for sure. I will say that if Kershaw ends up not pitching much more this year, I have no real idea what I’ll do with my ballot.

12:46
Dave: For the same reasons why no RP should win the CY Young, No pitchers should ever win the MVP. They only play in 20% of the games.

12:47
Dave Cameron: Incorrect. You have to weigh the marginal difference a player has in the games he plays, not just count number of games played as equal. If Mike Trout could bat 30 times in a game, that would make him more valuable than if he could only hit four times, even though they both count as one game played.

12:48
Dave Aunepetitegraine: Why are you talking about FIP for a pitcher like Pomeranz? He was brought in as a hired gun to win games. FIP does not win games and is not a useful stat for a 2 month go around. Who cares if he puts up a FIP of 2.50 if his ERA is 5.00 in those final 2 months, it doesnt help the team and isn’t what they paid a top prospect for.

12:48
Dave Cameron: His ERA is lower than his FIP since he got to Boston, so in addition to being wrong about the premise, even your details are incorrect.

12:48
Eric: If a prospect has a good two months, they immediately shoot up all the prospect rankings. If an MLB player has a good two months, sabermetrically-inclined analysts warn not to make too much of a small sample size. Why the difference?

12:49
Dave Cameron: We have more data for big leaguers, so two months represents a smaller percentage of what we know about a player. For a prospect, two months of data could be 25% of all of our information.

12:50
Aaron: I see WAR has Trout, Bryant, Altuve, and Seager all at roughly the same value. Does that pass the smell test this season?

12:50
Dave Cameron: Yeah, they’re all having great years.

12:51
Stay out of Medford Dave Cameron: We know what should happen, but will there be a regime change in Arizona?

12:51
Dave Cameron: I think so, yes.

12:51
Leone for Third: Who is your all-time favorite Mariner excluding those who have or should get serious Hall of Fame consideration (e.g., not Ichiro, Griffey, Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, or A-Rod)?

12:52
Dave Cameron: Mike Cameron.

12:52
Jose : The Joey Gallo situation just seems absolutely bizarre to me. It seems like the Rangers have avoided every opportunity to bring him to the majors, even in the wake of injuries up and down the roster. Am I wrong in thinking they’re not his natural owner anymore? Is there any way he’s a fulltime player in TX?

12:52
Dave Cameron: Agree that it seems like they keep looking for ways to not use him. It feels like they’re not sold on him, and maybe don’t want to have him get exposed against big league pitching, hurting his trade value.

12:53
Ben: If you were starting a new franchise today and could pick one team’s front office to run it, which would you choose?

12:54
Dave Cameron: Probably the Dodgers, because their front office is so large it’s got the staff of like 15 other front offices.

12:55
Eric: How did your wife realize you had leukemia?

12:56
Dave Cameron: I had some red spots on my legs (petechiae) and bruising on my body that wasn’t tender (purpura), and she correctly noted that they weren’t mosquito bites and clumsiness.

12:56
The Boat: Did the Giants overpay for Matt Moore?

12:56
Dave Cameron: Yes.

12:57
Zonk: Looking back at your “worst moves” piece from the offseason, it looks very prescient. The only miss may have been the Segura trade, and even there his surge is propelled by a high BABIP. Take a bow!

12:57
Dave Cameron: Blind squirrel, nuts, all that.

12:58
Emmett: I just noticed that Trout’s 2014 wRC+ dropped to 166 when it used to be listed at 167. Was their a minor shift in the algorithm to cause this change?

12:58
Dave Cameron: I believe our park factors were recently updated, and the changes caused some very minor shifts.

12:58
HomebrewJ: Not a question, just a huge congrats. Having lost an uncle to AML earlier this year, it’s heartwarming to hear of someone thriving in remission. Keep kicking ass.

12:59
Dave Cameron: I’m sorry about your uncle. AML is not a fun disease. I’m very lucky.

12:59
Phil: Does your move impact your BBWAA membership? Not necessarily in restriction but rather chapter designation and what you will vote for?

1:00
Dave Cameron: Yeah, after this year, I would imagine I’ll be placed in the Seattle chapter, since that will be the closest city to my house in Oregon. Likely means I’ll get awards votes less often, since the Seattle chapter has many more members than the Atlanta chapter.

1:00
Al: To your knowledge, has there ever been a pitcher to use dramatically different arm slots at the same time in his career? Maybe to get better action on pitches to same/opposite handed batters? Kind of like a one armed Pat Venditte?

1:00
Dave Cameron: Orlando Hernandez.

1:00
Dave Cameron: Bronson Arroyo too.

1:01
Derek: Hi Dave, my friend and I got into a debate the other day and I hope you can help settle it ! If Kershaw does not throw another pitch for the rest of his career (which will be utmost terrible), will he be in the HOF ? (I am on the positive side)

1:01
Dave Cameron: I’d vote for him, yes.

1:01
Dave Cameron: But I think there’s a 10 year minimum for the Hall that he hasn’t quite met yet.

1:01
Wowzerz: With the Dodgers front office so large, couldn’t there be a case of too many cooks in the kitchen?

1:02
Dave Cameron: No, they’re just cooking more things than everyone else.

1:02
Dayton Moore Talking Head: What kind of free agent contract will Eric Hosmer get next year (assuming no big swing in his performance between now and then)?

1:02
Dave Cameron: 4/$60M or something. The idea that he would get $200M, floated earlier this year, was lunacy. He’s just not that good.

1:03
Snarfle: Is the NL a big 3 with the Giants just below and a few other contenders or is it still the Cubs then everyone else?

1:03
Dave Cameron: Cubs, gap, Nationals/Dodgers, big gap, everyone else.

1:04
Dave Cameron: Alright, off to do some writing. Thanks for hanging out today, everyone, and thanks for all the kind words.

1:04
Dave Cameron: We’ll do it again next week.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

4 Comments
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Aaron Judge's Gavel
7 years ago

RE: pitchers changing arm slots… david cone used to drop down sidearm a few times a game when he had 2 strikes on a hitter

swingofthings
7 years ago

Lackey occasionally throws 2-seamers from a very low arm slot to give a different look and get dramatically more horizontal movement. Usually trying to get a looking strike on a front-door pitch or get a grounder in DP situations.

BobDD
7 years ago

I think Juan Marachal had the most varied arm slots that I’ve seen.

exxroxmember
7 years ago

Elduke (Orlando Hernandez)?