Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/26/15

Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so let’s chat. The queue is now open.

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get this fired up.

Comment From Pale Hose
It’s a real shame that (likely) two of the NL Central teams will not get a playoff series.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it sucks when stuff like this happens, with two or three of the best teams in the league all in the same division. But this doesn’t happen all that often, fortunately. It’s lame for the Cardinals and Pirates, but I don’t know that it justifies overhauling the playoff system.

Comment From Sean
What does the future hold for a post-Coors-Field, soon-to-be 31 year-old Troy Tulowitzki? Obviously his numbers, while still good, have taken a nosedive this year.

Dave Cameron: He definitely doesn’t look quite as elite as he did a year ago, so he might be settling into the good-not-great portion of his career.

Comment From Jeff
Is Don Mattingly aware of the existence of OBP? Why is Joc Pederson being benched?!

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers have faced a string of LHPs. I think it’s more fair to say he’s being platooned.

Comment From I am the Walrus
Are the signings of Sandoval and HRam evidence that you should not sign long term deals to fat guys and bad defensive guys going into their 30’s?

Dave Cameron: If you were going to make sweeping generalizations based on the results of one player’s results, you would literally have to never sign a free agent. FAs of all shapes and sizes fail.

Comment From CubsFan
How annoyed should I be that Rizzo is hitting 4th in the Cubs lineup? I know they’ve been on a roll with this lineup in place, but it seems less than ideal. I don’t like the fact that the other team could possibly get through the first inning without seeing the Cubs best hitter.

Dave Cameron: You shouldn’t be annoyed at all; your best hitters should hit 2nd/4th. It’s the right place for him.

Comment From 20longyears
If you’re Pirates GM, what do you do with Alvarez this offseason? Would he have much trade value to an AL team with a DH need?

Dave Cameron: He’s a non-tender, probably.

Comment From Larry
Last Week you felt Nats would not make a manager change before end of season. If the Nats fail to make the post season does Williams manage the team opening day next season. Seems like there is just something not quite right with the team and while not Williams fault over 162 he does set the tone for the club to perform.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, if they miss the playoffs, I would guess he loses his job.

Comment From Joe W
Where do you think Cherington will end up?

Dave Cameron: I could see him going to Chicago and taking an AGM role to reunite with Theo and Hoyer, then waiting for a year or two before getting another chance to run an organization.

Comment From CJM
You’ve mentioned a few times that you expect Puig to be traded in the offseason. If he surges in the last month and the Dodgers make to the postseason and he does well, do you think that increases/decreases the likelihood of a trade? Presumably, the Dodgers might be more convinced of his performance going forward, but also he’d increase his trade value some.

Dave Cameron: Industry speculation is that they’re pretty set on trading him.

Comment From Sean
Any thoughts on Robinson Cano suddenly picking it up once the Mariners are out of it? He seems to have a knack of compiling stats in meaningless games and/or against mediocre pitchers. (case in point: his postseason numbers)

Dave Cameron: I hate these ridiculous narratives more than just about anything else. You’re just going to pretend all his great seasons on winning teams didn’t happen?

Comment From marc
I get hes “The PIttsburgh Kid” but the Pirates need to trade Walker. His defense at 2nd is awful and His bat doesnt play at first, if thats even open next year. PLus hes set to make around 10 Mil next year. Also Plus, Kang and JHay need to play everyday next year. So what im getting at is What kind of market would exist for Walker should he become available over the winter?

Dave Cameron: Walker is one of the best second baseman in baseball. Getting rid of him just to get rid of him is silly.

Comment From Tom
Hey Dave. I know you won’t like it, but Donaldson has to be the AL MVP for me this season.

Dave Cameron: I have no idea how you “know I won’t like it”, nor do I think there’s anywhere near enough evidence to make it clear that one player is definitely having a better year than the other. This is the kind of year where having a strong opinion about the MVP says more about you than the players.

Comment From Nelson
If the schedule permits, should the cubs try to get Arrieta pitching in the WC game. Do they give any thought at all to what happened to Lester in the WC last year?

Dave Cameron: Arrieta is probably just a better pitcher at this point. I’d take him over Lester assuming the opponent wasn’t stacked with LHBs.

Comment From Rob
What would the Red Sox have to give up to get Chris Sale this winter? And would it be smart for both teams to do so?

Dave Cameron: Probably so much that it wouldn’t be a good idea, especially when Price, Cueto, and Greinke are all going to hit the market. I’d imagine Dombrowski tries to sign one of them instead.

Comment From Nelson
How do we see teams playoff odds over time? Like the way FG tweets them out?

Dave Cameron: We’re working on adding those graphs to the site. They’ll be up eventually.

Comment From Jerry
What is it about Schwarber that you don’t like?

Dave Cameron: When did I ever say I didn’t like Schwarber? I noted that a friend in the game wasn’t as impressed as a lot of other people are.

Comment From DJ
how would you rank the national league’s best teams? In tiers please

Dave Cameron: Dodgers are the best, then Nationals/Cardinals/Pirates/Cubs are all pretty close.

Comment From john
Do you see Heyward signing a 6/140ish deal?

Dave Cameron: A lot more.

Comment From TR
Do teams consider pitchers that work fast an asset (i.e. is a pitcher that works fast slightly more valuable than a pitcher that has the same results but is a human rain delay?)

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From bigglesworth
I know that there are exceptions (Joe Torre comes to mind) but why is it that very good players like Matt Williams and Don Mattingly make terrible managers ?

Dave Cameron: There was actually a talk on this very subject at Saber Seminar. I had some issues with the methodology of the presentation, but his general point was that experts seemingly underestimate how difficult it is for non-experts to do what they did personally, which makes some sense.

Comment From JR
Do you believe in Lorenzo Cain’s performance this season?

Dave Cameron: This will be a career year, but he’s very good.

Comment From I am the Walrus
Seems Puig to NYM for pitching makes some sense no?

Dave Cameron: A Puig-Harvey swap would be fascinating, I’m guessing both sides would probably be intrigued by the idea, but ultimately, I don’t know if I see the Mets trading Harvey.

Comment From Metsfan
What kind of contract do you think Cespedes gets in free agency?

Dave Cameron: It’s going up with his recent play. I think I said 6/120 last week, and that’s probably light now. He’s got a real shot to be coming off a +7 WAR season, so he’s going to get paid. Maybe 7/150 is more likely.

Comment From Dave
What do you think Billy Beane does this offseason with the A’s? The team has underperformed but most of his recent moves have backfired (Donaldson). I’m interested in what he will do to try and right the ship.

Dave Cameron: Industry scuttle is that he’s going to get promoted to president and David Forst will take over as GM this winter, so I could see 2016 being a bit more of a rebuild year. They’re not going to tear it all down, but they might do a few more for-the-future trades.

Comment From Jeremy B.
I understand why FIP-based WAR strips out balls-in-play outcomes for pitchers, but why doesn’t WAR do the same for batters? Is the theory that batters have greater control over the outcomes of balls in play than pitchers do?

Dave Cameron: Hitters face a varied and random series of defenses over the course of the season, so it’s quite likely that the effects of defensive performance against a hitter are very small over the course of a 162 game season. Pitchers pitch in front of the same defense all year long, so a guy pitching for the Royals will have a sustained advantage that a guy pitching for the White Sox will not.

Comment From Josh G
How would fix the Red Sox’ rotation next year, given likely resources at you disposal?

Dave Cameron: I don’t really ascribe to the idea that the Red Sox rotation is a disaster. It has performed poorly by run prevention this year, but there’s plenty of reasons to think that Porcello, Miley, and Kelly should post better results in the future. If Buchholz is healthy and they add another quality starter, keeping the kids around as depth options, they should be fine next year.

Comment From mtsw
Will any team start a LHP versus Toronto in the playoffs?

Dave Cameron: The Astros wouldn’t really have a choice; they’re not skipping Keuchel and Kazmir.

Comment From JR
Do you think either of these things happen soon (next 5 years)? The NL adopts the DH or roster size is expanded to more than 25.

Dave Cameron: I could see both of those things happening in tandem.

Comment From Gary
Not sure how much credit Cherington deserves for this, but the Red Sox farm system is amazing.

Dave Cameron: It is, and he deserves a good amount of credit for that.

Comment From Tom
Haven’t seen much fanfare about Arrieta in these pages (I may have missed it), but does seem to have confirmed last season’s impression that he is now a genuine ace. Yes/no?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From mtsw
Can pitchers throw harder in warm weather? I know that sounds dumb but totally observationally it seems like I’ve noticed a lot of guys are throwing slightly harder than they were early in the season.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, velocity spikes up in the summer.

Comment From Mike
what could a Donaldson extension look like?

Dave Cameron: Very expensive. Let’s say he’s set to get $10M/$15M/$20M in arb over the next three years, so you’re starting point is 3/45, and then you’re buying out FA seasons. He’s probably not selling them for less than $25M apiece, and given his age, you probably don’t want to commit tot too many of them, so maybe you add another 3/$75M on top of that? So 6/$120M?

Comment From groucho
Having seen the ‘Dips beaters’ talk at Saber seminar, do you think the cardinals have figured out a way to be consistently better then their FIP and xFIP? Because every guy in their rotation is a lot better than they should be…

Dave Cameron: Not really, no. Jonah identified the traits of some guys who can consistently hold down their BABIPs, but the Cardinals aren’t posting a low BABIP as a team this year; it’s all about runner-stranding, which isn’t really a skill.

Comment From Chris
What changes do you think Dombrowski is most likely to make to the Red Sox, beyond the recently-announced decision to move Hanley to first next year?

Dave Cameron: He’s a stars-and-scrubs GM, while Cherington was a spread-it-around GM, so I’d bet we see some consolidation trades, where they package 2-3 guys and get one better player instead.

Comment From john
Is “hitting is contagious” real?

Dave Cameron: To an extent, yes. Everyone hits better with men on base than with the bases empty.

Comment From FireDrayton
How do you rank the AL teams? Same format as the NL question.

Dave Cameron: Blue Jays are the best, Royals are behind them, then Astros/Yankees/Angels.

Comment From Dan
What does it take to get Puig this offseason? He is having a bad year, but I feel like the Dodgers will still be trying to get a return fitting of a superstar.

Dave Cameron: They’ll ask for the moon, certainly. And even coming off a down year, he’s still quite valuable. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they went more for the quantity over quality approach, so instead of trading him for one big name, maybe they move him for 2-3 lower risk players and some prospects they like.

Comment From Guest
The original 4 year contract with required release looks like a great decision for Cespedes.

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From War2d2
I’m kind of curious why Jake Arrieta doesn’t get more attention from the national media when it comes to Cy Young candidacy. On Buster Olney’s podcast they were talking candidates, and put the top-3 candidates as Greinke, Kershaw, and DeGrom, made mention of Scherzer and Cole, and never mentioned Arrieta. Then, when talking a possible one-game playoff, said that it was no-brainer that Lester would start it. By almost any measure on this site or BBRef he’s a top-5, if not top 3, pitcher in the NL: 2nd in fWAR, 2nd in FIP, 2nd in xFIP, 2nd in ERA etc etc. Why no love for Jake?

Dave Cameron: I can’t really talk about the Cy Young stuff too much since I have a ballot this year, but he’s absolutely on my radar. He’s awesome.

Comment From Sean
Do you think any front offices read, put any stock in, or are aware at all of your annual top 50 trade value piece?

Dave Cameron: Read and aware of? Yes. Put much stock in? They realize it’s an exercise mostly for fun, and I don’t think they’re actually referencing it when deciding what trades to make.

Comment From DaveB
What do you think i David Peralta’s ceiling?

Dave Cameron: Andre Ethier, maybe? That kind of player.

Comment From Rob
Just as there are some pitchers that always out-perform their FIP, wouldn’t that imply that there are some pitchers who are doomed to always underperform their FIP? What are some traits of these pitchers? How can we identify them?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, there are some pitchers who struggle at pitching with men on base — maybe they don’t like pitching out of the stretch — and end up not stranding as many runners as we’d expect even over long careers. Javier Vazquez was one of these types. How you identify them ahead of time, I don’t really know.

Comment From Dan
Can you dumb down Base Runs for me?

Dave Cameron: BaseRuns is a team’s expected record if every team’s distribution of events was the same. So, while single/single/HR is more valuable than HR/single/single, BaseRuns treats those two series of events as equal.

Comment From Gio
I know Fangraphs says the Dodgers are the best team, but do you REALLY believe they are? You can’t possibly believe that after watching the games.

Dave Cameron: Sure I can.

Comment From Julio Pepper
In a Dodgers/Toronto WS, with everyone well rested, would you start Greinke in Game 1?

Dave Cameron: That’s a fun question. Is the gap between Kershaw and Greinke worth taking the hit of starting the lefty? I don’t know. Maybe we’ll write about this.

Comment From Richard P
Have teams always promoted GMs to Presidents? Seems to me that a GM should have a baseball background, and the President should have more of a business focus. Wouldn’t a Fortune-500 style president often be a better fit?

Dave Cameron: It’s just job title inflation. Teams got tired of losing their best young executives, so instead of letting them leave for promotions elsewhere, they just started promoting them internally, which required everyone to get a title bump to accommodate the new role for the retained executive.

Comment From Cult
If you’re the brewer’s new GM, what does this offseason look like?

Dave Cameron: I’d blow it up. Trade Braun, Lucroy, everyone.

Comment From Bill
The Nationals have the highest projected winning percentage for ROS. Why are we so sure they’re going to suddenly stop being mediocre?

Dave Cameron: Have you seen their schedule the rest of the way?

Comment From >RISP
“Everyone hits better with men on base than with the bases empty” Have you seen the Indians? Especially with them loaded

Dave Cameron: *Over significant periods of time, everyone hits better with men on base.

Comment From Terence
Astros are at +109 baseruns. Yankees +66. Angels -14. You really have those three teams in a tier together ?

Dave Cameron: The Astros have played over their heads so far.

Comment From BrewCrewBlues
To what extent do – or should – teams try to plan a window of contention? If you’re the Brewers or Reds, do you look at the NL Central and… I don’t know, value high upside high school players more highly in the draft?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t change my draft philosophy, but those two teams should absolutely be realistic about their short-term chances to win in that division. They both should blow it up and build for 2018 and beyond.

Comment From Nelson
Heyword gets more than Yoenis?

Dave Cameron: Yeah. He’s a lot younger.

Comment From John
How are the Mets not even in the same tier as the Nationals when baseruns has them just about even and the Mets have a 5.5 game lead? Did Mr. Met steal your high school girlfriend or something?

Dave Cameron: Teams are not equal to their in-season performance.

Comment From Rob
Re: Title inflation, Dave, when are you becoming the President of Fangraphs?

Dave Cameron: We’re a low-inflation economy around here.

Comment From Dan
Follow-up to Base Runs: So it is an attempt to reduce the randomness in which offensive production is ordered…because teams cannot control that, correct?

Dave Cameron: Basically, yes.

Comment From JC
hitting with men on base – is that the batter is amped/more adrenaline because of the situation or the pitcher is more prone to make mistakes becuase they are thinking too much about not making one

Dave Cameron: It’s probably defensive positioning mostly, since you can’t really shift with men on base, and the first baseman has to hold the runner on in some cases.

Comment From Holly Martins
Thanks for chatting, Dave! Rather amazingly, every St. Louis weakness that you predicted in your N.L. Central preview has come to fruition. Wainwright broke down in April, Holliday’s power evaporated, and Molina has continued his hitting decline. And yet somehow the team is on pace to exceed its Fangraphs & Vegas & Clay Davenport predictions by 16(!) victories. If this keeps up Matheny (whose first three teams beat Vegas by an average of 5 wins per year by the way) looks like a fairly easy choice for N. L. Manager of the Year, yes?

Dave Cameron: Voters hate giving it to the team with the best record. I’d bet it goes to Maddon, since the Cubs weren’t widely expected to be contenders by non-FG readers.

Comment From Sean
Ryan Howard was declared all but dead a couple years ago. But given the continued decline in league-wide offense and Howard’s amortizing contract can he intrigue as a platoon DH in the AL?

Dave Cameron: No, he’s still terrible.

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to get some lunch. Thanks for hanging out, everyone.