Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/3/16

12:03
Dave Cameron: Happy post-deadline Wednesday.

12:03
Dave Cameron: I’m a bit under the weather today, so I don’t know how long I’ll make it, but I’ll take questions until I need to go pass out.

12:04
Ben: Does Matheny suck? He seems to suck.

12:05
Dave Cameron: At some point, Mozeliak is going to have to tell him to stop double switching so often, and to stop taking Holliday out of close games.

12:05
Dave Cameron: His overmanaging is hurting the organization.

12:05
Steve: What would a Noah Syndergaard/Nolan Arenado trade look like?

12:06
Dave Cameron: Given the vagaries of Syndergaard’s health and the prospect of importing a pitcher into Coors Field, I don’t see the Rockies doing that.

12:06
Bernie: Braves and Atlanta native Brian McCann are a perfect match for 2017 opening day relaunch for Braves. They’ve talked with NYY – what would a deal look like there?

12:06
Dave Cameron: The Braves don’t need a 32 year old catcher; they need young players, because they’re not very close to winning.

12:06
Steve: What will Wilson Ramos get in FA? Nats will QO him, 5 years 85 million?

12:07
Dave Cameron: I’d guess less, given his injury history and inconsistency. I’d say 4/$60M.

12:07
Bernie: % chance that Dodgers let Puig go free if he’s claimed on waivers this month? Or can he not go on waivers if he’s in minor league?

12:08
Dave Cameron: I don’t know if they’d just let him go, but his value is basically zero at this point, so they’d probably consider it. And yes, you can go waivers even if you’re in the minors.

12:08
Sean P : Is Kyle Hendricks the type of pitcher who might end up sustaining a discrepancy between his ERA and his FIP past this year due to the nature of how he pitches? Or is he more a product of a pitching staff benefiting from a low BABIP because of the Cubs defense?

12:08
Dave Cameron: Those aren’t mutually exclusive. Hendricks has shown signs of being a guy who generates weak contact, but he’s also getting help from the Cubs defense.

12:09
JTT: Dave I really enjoyed your Matt Duffy article. Over the past few years, teams like the Cardinals and Giants have shown that you CAN in fact teach power. Are we going to start seeing scouts move away from the sexy tools and focus more on guys with good contact skills, strike zone control and easy fundamentally sound swings?

12:10
Dave Cameron: Scouts jobs are primarily to evaluate a player’s physical abilities; you don’t really want them to “move away” from that. But I do think organizations have historically been overvaluing power and underselling the ability of “low upside” players to develop, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the current crop of guys like Altuve, Carpenter, Murphy, etc… do lead to some increase in value for contact line drive guys.

12:11
Bernie: Would Milwaukee benefit by re-structuring Ryan Braun’s deal to move money to this season? Since the payroll is so low, they have the cash and this could lower their tax burden and increase Braun’s trade value by making his contract more tolerable to another team.

12:11
Dave Cameron: No real difference between that and just agreeing to pay a portion of the deal when they trade.

12:11
Joe Douglas: Hi Dave.

12:12
Dave Cameron: Hi Joe.

12:12
JD15: What did you think of Joe Musgrove’s debut last night? If McCullers is headed for the DL, is he the one to take his spot in the rotation?

12:12
Dave Cameron: Hard not to like what he did to the Blue Jays. And yeah, pretty good guess that he’ll get McCullers next turn in the rotation.

12:12
Tim: Your favorite trade of the deadline and why?

12:13
Dave Cameron: Going to publish my list of best buys and best sells the next couple of days.

12:13
Erik: How disappointed should Phillies fans be in their deadline inactivity? Very disappointed, that none of a potential 3 or 4 candidates could even get moved for lottery picks, or slightly disappointed, if Hellickson was the only real trade piece, and wasn’t going to return much more than a comp pick?

12:14
Dave Cameron: I’d say mildly disappointed. Could still move Gomez in August, so that’s not a big deal. Hellickson isn’t so valuable that his return would be dramatically more than a comp pick.

12:15
Julio Pepper: I love Andrew Benintendi, but does Steamer’s .289/.340/.455 not seem batshit crazy to you? That’s almost Michael Brantley.

12:15
Dave Cameron: That’s a 107 wRC+. He ran a 139 wRC+ in Double-A as a 21 year old, with only a .308 BABIP. Everything about his resume says he’s ready to hit in the big leagues right now.

12:16
JD15: If you could choose 1 teams rotation for the playoffs who would it be? Same for bullpen and Offense?

12:17
Dave Cameron: I’ll take the Cubs rotation, Astros bullpen, Blue Jays offense.

12:17
Tom M: You can have Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, or Kenley Janson for the next three years. Who do you take?

12:17
Dave Cameron: Probably Miller.

12:17
Spiggy: The link between injuries and large year-over-year increases in innings pitched seems shaky, but certainly not non-existent. If you were running the Blue Jays, what would you do with Aaron Sanchez?

12:17
Dave Cameron: I’d have just skipped a few starts, but left him in the rotation.

12:18
Big Joe Monferrant: What trade do you prefer for the Yanks? the Miller, Chapman, Beltran or Nova? Why?

12:18
Dave Cameron: They got the most for Chapman relative to expectations.

12:18
Dave: Dylan Bundy was dealing last night. He’s really become the starter the Orioles needed without making a trade. Or am I too premature with that statement?

12:19
Dave Cameron: Certainly exciting to see him coming on like this, but I have no idea what Baltimore is going to do with him, workload wise. They can’t just let him throw another ~75 innings, assuming they get to October, right?

12:19
Erik: When a trade seems significantly uneven from the perspective of most analysts, which outcome is more likely: A) The industry knows things we don’t, and the value is actually perfectly fair, or B) Some front offices are bad enough that they can get badly fleeced in trades?

12:20
Dave Cameron: A is usually more correct, but sometimes, you just have the Shelby Miller trade, and the team doesn’t know what they’re doing.

12:20
BLess: When do you anticipate Moncada getting the call and when does he start playing regularly?

12:20
Dave Cameron: I think he’ll be a September callup and mostly just pinch run. He’s not as ready as Benintendi.

12:21
Rob: There is a great deal of frustration in being a White Sox fan these days, but I’m fine with them not forcing a Quintana or Sale trade at the deadline. Do you think their best plan would be to move either or both of those guys this Winter?

12:21
Dave Cameron: I guess I don’t see why you’d think it was “forcing” a trade at a time when the market was desperate for a high-end starter. They’d get less for both of those guys than they could have gotten last week, so I don’t know what the point of holding to sell this winter is.

12:21
Hollywood Williams: Do the Sox still have a chance of trading Robertson at the waiver deadline, or will he be blocked by some team despite his high salary?

12:22
Dave Cameron: I bet he’d either clear, or get far enough that the claiming team would be interested in making a deal.

12:22
Erik: Should we assume any prospect whose team allowed him to leave is worse than we thought, and knock his FV grade down a bit?

12:23
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t say we should just have a blanket rule like that, but in general, yes, if a team trades a prospect, his chances of success are probably lower than we thought they were before they traded him.

12:24
Andy: Cleveland or Texas or some other team? Who is the favorite in the AL?

12:24
Dave Cameron: Depends on Salazar’s health. If he’s fine, Cleveland. If he’s not, Boston.

12:24
Chris: Why are you snarkier and more arrogant than everyone else who does these chats while at the same time less intelligent?

12:24
Dave Cameron: With questions like this, I have no idea why people are rude to you. it’s such a mystery.

12:25
Marc: Is there a pitching stat based on actual runs allowed (i.e. not FIP) that fairly weights what happens in situations like what happened to David Price last night? He leaves the game with two runners on base and then Abad gives up the Cano homer that scores them, tacking two earned runs onto Price’s total. Yeah, those runners are Price’s fault, but he didn’t give up the home run. It seems to me there’s some shared credit for giving up those two runs.

12:25
Dave Cameron: RE24.

12:25
Lars: Who has to go through waivers in August, anyone on the 25 man or 40 man?

12:25
Dave Cameron: Anyone on the 40 man.

12:25
LarryA: Are you ready for Daniel Murphy : 2016 NL MVP

12:25
Dave Cameron: Think Kris Bryant is the favorite right now.

12:26
Joey Votto Fanclub: Can CF defense help the corners; ie Matt Kemp

12:26
Dave Cameron: Not much. The number of plays that can be made by two different fielders is much lower than people think.

12:27
Murdoc: Who do you think gets a bigger deal this winter, Chapman or Jansen?

12:27
Dave Cameron: Chapman.

12:27
Sammy: Am I crazy to think that the pirates did kinda ok in the Liriano trade? McGuire and Ramirez look very fringy, Liriano looks toast, and Hutchison is still somewhat young with already some decent MLB innings in his not-too-distant past.

12:28
Dave Cameron: I think the deal was perfectly fine. McGuire looks like Ryan Hanigan is his upside, and it’s not like Ryan Hanigans cost a lot, so his value can be replaced even if he makes it. I think they will probably do just as well by reallocating Lirianos money.

12:28
Ya Habibi: What is your best guess on what happens with Puig?

12:28
Dave Cameron: The Dodgers trade him for nothing this winter.

12:28
Jason: What are your thoughts on the brewers haul at the deadline from the various trades?

12:29
Dave Cameron: I’m a fan. Brinson could be a very good get, and they did well for Will Smith too.

12:29
Jack : True or False: Jeremy Hellickson accepts the QO from the Phillies

12:29
Dave Cameron: False. Think he’ll get 3 years and prefer the security.

12:29
Renard: What are the Braves doing with Kemp?

12:30
Dave Cameron: Trying to sell tickets, I guess.

12:30
Paul: Why do you think premium relievers aren’t getting paid more? Miller only signed with the Yankees 1.5 years ago, and now he’s worth $50 mill beyond his contract? Is it because a lot of relievers flame out and the Yanks were lucky he didn’t?

12:30
Dave Cameron: Wait until you see what Chapman and Jansen get this winter.

12:31
Steak from Jate Farm: Maddux always comes up when a guy like Kyle Hendricks has success. Clearly Hendricks isn’t on his level, so can you explain to this youngin what Maddux was doing that made him all-time rather than merely “good considering he’s not a power arm”?

12:32
Dave Cameron: Maddux had the best command of any pitcher I’ve ever seen. And his stuff is always underrated, because people just remember him throwing 88 at the end of his career. Peak Maddux threw 90-94 with sink and had an elite change-up. Best current comparison is probably someone like Johnny Cueto, only twice as good.

12:33
Desmond : Do you consider justin turner a interesting Case for dodgers this winter ? Productive and well liked player but if maximizing his earnings is his priority everything about the way dodgers operate say it won’t be them going all out for a over 30 year old player?

12:33
Dave Cameron: I’d guess they’ll let him go. Seems like the kind of player who is going to age poorly, given his knee problems.

12:34
Dan: Nats do enough at the deadline with a very good Melancon deal?

12:34
Dave Cameron: I would have liked to see them get Steve Pearce.

12:34
Reginald Denton III: Can you elaborate on what Matheny did with Holliday that cost them? I know Oh blew a save last night, but didn’t follow it closely enough to know how Holliday’s removal impacted things.

12:35
Dave Cameron: He doubled switched three times, so they ended up with the pitcher hitting 3rd in the lineup and only the backup catcher left on the bench, so when the #3 spot came up in the 9th inning with the bases loaded and 2 out, he couldn’t pinch hit for him. Oh struck out, the rally ended, and they lost when Oh blew the lead.

12:36
Guest: your thoughts on teheran not being traded?

12:36
Dave Cameron: I think the Braves and White Sox will eventually regret holding their pitchers at a time when prices for pitching was so high.

12:36
Doug: Now that the Dodgers kept their top pitching prospects Urias and De Leon, , how do you think they’ll be deployed this season?

12:36
Dave Cameron: Urias is running up against his innings limit, so I don’t think he’ll pitch in LA that much more. I do think De Leon comes up and pitches in relief soonish.

12:37
Guesto: Yes, the Braves need young players, but their trade for Kemp shows a different philosophy. Think it’s very possible for them to trade for McCann, especially if the Yankees eat some money.

12:37
Dave Cameron: It’s not a good philosophy, or one worth encouraging.

12:38
Mike Sixel: I will be in bend next week….cannot wait. Have you been? Any suggestions?

12:38
Dave Cameron: I will also be in Bend next week. Flying out on Saturday for a house-hunting/daycare tour trip.

12:38
Dave Cameron: I’m the wrong guy to ask for suggestions, though. Check out the Bend subreddit; lots of good posts on what to do in town there.

12:38
Joel: Which young hitter excites you the most? Benintendi, Bregman or Dahl?

12:39
Dave Cameron: Bregman probably the best hitter of the three. Benintendi maybe best all-around.

12:39
Terrence: Jackie Bradley Jr’s UZR this year pretty much proves that defensive metrics are out of whack, right?

12:40
Dave Cameron: The idea that defensive performance is static, while all other performances are variable, is just so weird. Do you think David Price’s ERA is proof that pitching metrics are out of whack? What about Daniel Murphy’s power spike? Why would we think that defense is the only thing in baseball that is constant?

12:42
kevinthecomic: Are you ever tempted to pursue a job with an MLB team (for a short time anyway — say, 1 year) knowing that the beating you take to the pocketbook and to the lifestyle would be worth just one look under the hood?

12:43
Dave Cameron: Not really. I spend enough time talking with friends who work for teams that I feel like I have an okay understanding of whats under the hood. Only I get weekends and evenings off, and actually get to see my kid.

12:43
Hi Erix: Dave, from what I’ve read about Clint Frazier he sounds a whole lot like Jay Bruce – is that about what we can expect from him?

12:43
Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s probably not a terrible expectation.

12:44
Sean: Do you see the Cubs being super aggressive with bullpen in the playoffs (i.e. after two turns through the order) even with a guy like Lester? They seemed to add more RPs than they need for more traditional late innings bullpen usage.

12:44
Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think they’re planning on leaning on their relievers very aggressively. I don’t expect any non-Arrieta Cubs SP is going to get past 6 IP in a postseason start.

12:45
Guest: alex bregman is 1-34 and i dont think has even squared a ball up one time. gotta be cause for concern, right?

12:45
Dave Cameron: Not really, no.

12:46
Jake from State Farm: See some theories out there that Milwaukee really wanted Brinson all along and that Gallo is losing his shine in terms of future value. thoughts?

12:46
Dave Cameron: I don’t know what Milwaukee wanted, but I don’t think preferring Brinson to Gallo is insane.

12:47
Joe: If the rumors of a Giolito for Miller trade, straight up, is true, is that a bit of an indictment of Giolito as a prospect? His control has been objectively unimpressive in the minors this year.

12:47
Dave Cameron: The rumors weren’t true.

12:48
Mike_C: Bryant is a super 2. With Boras as his agent is there any chance that the Cubs get him signed to an extension?

12:48
Dave Cameron: I’d say very unlikely. He got ~$6M as a signing bonus in the draft, so he’s already got enough money to not feel like he needs to take an early cash in, and his performances have basically guaranteed him a good payday in arbitration after next year.

12:49
greg: Dilson Herrera’s ZiPS for next year are .252/.312/.417 2.2 WAR. Not amazing but still pretty dang useful. Did the Mets make a mistake here?

12:49
Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t really get that trade for the Mets. Herrera isn’t anything special, but he’s a perfectly useful piece to have around, and Bruce doesn’t really make them any better, I don’t think.

12:49
Roadhog: I am shocked the A’s didn’t end up with Puig after the Dodgers deal, they’re weak in OF depth and seems like Puig could have been a great change of scenery candidate to replace a fan favorite (Reddick) leaving. Any thoughts?

12:50
Dave Cameron: They took a shot on bad clubhouse guys last year, and didn’t like how it worked out. They weren’t about to jump into that again.

12:51
Jack: I don’t understand why you think the White Sox may lost value in holding onto Sale until the winter. He’s signed for 3 more years (team friendly contract) and the FA market is awful this off-season.

12:52
Dave Cameron: Any buyer at the deadline would have gotten him for 3.5 years, plus one whole extra postseason run. So now Sale gives any buyer less than he would have. And they’ll have more options this winter.

12:52
Dave Cameron: Plus, teams don’t pay the same prices in the winter as they do in the summer, since they have less confidence that their acquisitions will impact the postseason race.

12:53
Grant: On Reese McGuire, I don’t really disagree with your premise and even the Hanigan comp, except to note that he is a 21 year old catcher in AA. You’ve noted how guys like Altuve, Duffy etc have grown into power, a profile like McGuire (good contact, zone control, line drives) could do so enough to make him a league average C.

12:53
Dave Cameron: Sure, no one is saying he can’t become a useful player. But Hutchison could also become a useful pitcher.

12:53
Aquizno : How likely is a Puig-Shields swap later this month (assuming both clear waivers)?

12:54
Dave Cameron: Don’t see any reason why the Dodgers would want Shields.

12:54
Ryan: I keep waiting for Edwin Diaz to settle in or come back to earth or something along those lines. Should I be more accepting that this is actually his true talent level and that he is, as of right now, at least in the conversation for best RH reliever in baseball?

12:54
Dave Cameron: No one has a true talent 18 K/9.

12:54
Dave Cameron: But 100 with that slider… he’s obviously very good.

12:55
JP: Re: Defense being constant. With hitting, the batter is reliant on the pitcher; with pitching, the pitcher is reliant on the batter; with defense, it’s only the defender and the ball, so the player has much more control, creating more consistency. Also, hitters go into slumps all the time, but their defense doesn’t. Defense IS much more static.

12:55
Dave Cameron: Why on earth would you believe that defense doesn’t go into slumps?

12:56
Dave Cameron: You’re basically just making claims for which there is zero evidence.

12:56
Reginald Denton III: Re: players like Hellickson, don’t you have to consider that other teams won’t want to lose a draft pick by signing him, and that there is maybe a greater chance than we acknowledge that he goes unsigned (until 6/1 or whatever date it is)?

12:56
Dave Cameron: Ian Kennedy got 5/$70M with draft pick compensation attached.

12:58
Kolbe: What does Chapman get this offseason 5/75?

12:58
Dave Cameron: I’d guess 5/100.

1:01
Dave Cameron: Alright, that’s about as long as I can go this week. I’m off next week, so we’ll chat again in a couple of weeks.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

7 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
thetoddfather
7 years ago

I think the question of defensive slumps is interesting. Hitting slumps are commonly accredited to the hitter having some temporary deficiency (i.e. being “out of it”); similarly, hot streaks also fall on the hitter (i.e. being “locked in”). I think the argument is that defense doesn’t slump, or go on a hot streak for that matter, because of this phenomenon.

What Dave seems to suggest is that defensive results are subject to variability, just like anything else. That seems totally believable, borderline undeniable. The real question: does this variability actually create slumps? Does “slumping” exist outside of statistical noise, even in hitting?

I’m curious what people think of this idea, and would love to see some research on it.