Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 9/20/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Going to have a few more minute delay; kid slept in this morning so got him to preschool late.

Dave Cameron: We will start shortly.

Pablo: Who gets the second NL Wild Card?

Dave Cameron: At this point, it’s a toss up. I’d take MIL if I was making a wild guess, but there isn’t much separating these teams.

Guest: What is a reasonable expectation for Matt Olson next year?  Surely the league is going to adjust…

Dave Cameron: Well, yeah, he isn’t going to hit 70 homers. But the power looks legit, the contact rate is fine, and he’s handling lefties, which is new. So I’d guess something like .260/.330/.500?

toki: Any players you think get held down till the super 2 cutoff next year?

Dave Cameron: The Braves historically haven’t played service time games as much as everyone else (Jason Heyward broke camp with the team, for instance), but they could keep Acuna down if they can’t find a taker for Kemp and/or Markakis this winter. At that point, they’d have enough cover to say “hey, we’re going with veterans to start, then we’ll see”

toki: With the new ball and data.  How soon till teams start expanding rotations beyond 5 guys?  Or do you think teams might go to shorter outings for starters instead of more starters?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think we’re going to see expanded rotations; I think we’re going to see the end of starting pitching as it’s been handled. The game is moving towards more guys throwing 2-4 innings, and it won’t stop moving that way until it shows some diminishing returns.

EK: Are the D-Backs rolling out Corbin or Walker for their 4th starter (assuming they get past the WC game)? Both have been inconsistent at times

Dave Cameron: Well, I don’t think they are any kind of guarantee to get past the WC game, and they’ll have to burn one of their better starters in that game either way, so I don’t think they’ll have the luxury of a standard rotation in the DS.

Dave Cameron: But if you’re picking between Corbin/Walker, it has to depend on how many good RH hitters the other team has. If it’s more than a few, Walker. You can’t throw Corbin against a bunch of RHBs in a playoff game if you don’t have to.

YU: Do you think the Angels or Twins have a better shot at beating the Yankees in the WC game?

Dave Cameron: Angels. Richards looks good right now, and MIN doesn’t have anyone who can match his arm for the first few innings.

PF: Thoughts on the Estrada extension?

Dave Cameron: Reasonable. He wouldn’t have done much worse than 1/$13M on the open market, and this gives the Jays some protection in case things get crazy.

Alicia Rounderneck : Astros play the last 4 games of the season at Fenway.. As it stands now both teams would meet in ALDS. Bos needs to win. Does HOU start Verlander or Keichel at all?

Dave Cameron: I could see them getting abbreviated starts. You let them take the mound, give them 50 pitches, get them through a few innings, then put in Liriano or whoever.

Baez: Even I can’t rationalize why the Dodgers Front Office has pushed me so hard

Dave Cameron: Because they’ve had the division won since June, and now it’s clear that he won’t be part of their October roster.

Dave Cameron: So he’s just eating meaningless innings at this point.

toki: Is it possible that the new ball is causing more injuries which in turn is going to cut careers shorter?  Meaning pitchers are losing money due to the new ball….

Dave Cameron: There is plenty of speculation that the ball is also the cause of the blister problems so many pitchers had this year.

Mookie Cookie: If you had to predict one team that absolutely won’t win a world series in the next 10 years, who would you say?

Dave Cameron: It has to be the Padres. They are a long way away from being even decent, and they have the sport’s biggest obstacle in their own division.

Grover: Based on this season do you think Corey Seager can stick at SS for longer than a lot of people thought?

Dave Cameron: I think physical skills on the infield have been devalued so lots of guys can play IF spots that they wouldn’t have been able to 10 years ago.

Slew: Should the Indians prioritize resting players or chasing the Dodgers for best record and possible home field advantage?

Dave Cameron: Rest

Jack: Hey Dave, are the number of scoops by a first baseman factored into advanced fielding metrics? I took a look yesterday and saw that Hosmer is the league leader in scoops since 2015. However, he is rated one of the worst defensive first baseman in baseball. I feel like a first baseman’s scooping ability would be extremely important and valuable at that position.

Dave Cameron: Scoops are factored in, yes. The reality is that there just aren’t enough of them, and there isn’t enough of a spread in talent, for it to matter that much. It’s a few runs per year, basically.

Davy: Does Anthony Rendon have an actual shot at winning NL MVP? I’m a Nats fan and I’m dispirited by how little I’ve heard on the subject.

Dave Cameron: No.

Dave Cameron: He’ll get a bunch of 5th-10th place votes.

Dave Cameron: And maybe a few stray 2s and 3s

Argy Bargy: Dave, last night on the Red Sox radio broadcast, Joe Castiglione said that Jackie Bradley, Jr. is the “best outfielder I’ve seen anywhere, anytime.”  I find this a rather surprising statement, to say the least.  Bradley rates pretty well by advanced defensive stats, and seems to by the eye test too, but nothing eye-popping at all.  What do you think is informing Joe’s opinion?  I don’t get it.

Dave Cameron: Bradley makes a lot of spectacular plays, and he has an absurd arm. It’s very easy to take that and extrapolate it out, versus a guy like Kiermaier who just takes crazy good routes.

Josh: The Brewers are now just one game back of Colorado for the second WC, but the Playoffs Odds give Milwaukee just a 21% chance of supplanting the Rockies. Doesn’t that seem a little light to you?  Is it primarily due to their remaining schedules?

Dave Cameron: Doesn’t help that the Brewers lost Jimmy Nelson for the year, so they are down one of the main reasons they got this far.

Josh: If the Brewers and Twins each reach the postseason, which do you think will have been more impressive based on preseason expectations?

Dave Cameron: The Brewers, probably. MIN is mostly in WC position because all the other supposed AL contenders fell apart.

Dougy: Which playoff team has the best playoff starting rotation?

Dave Cameron: LA

Eric : Dave – Please tell me the Giants are not going to blow their budget by “upgrading” 1B from Brandon Belt to Eric Hosmer.  Is it truly a case of RBIs still rule the day?  Belt when healthy is much better imo.

Dave Cameron: Much more likely they sign Moustakas

Tim: Hi Dave, what do you make of Lucas Giolito?  Eno doesn’t think much of him (straight fastball) and his velo has been down.  In general, I’m wondering if he’s dialing back on the velo to have better command and pitching to contact (he seems similar to Phillies Roy Halladay in that respect).  What’s his outlook for next year?  Thanks again.

Dave Cameron: Current success is based on a .186 BABIP. Fact that he’s throwing strikes now is nice, but still doesn’t miss bats, isn’t especially grounder-heavy, and isn’t inducing weak contact. It’s hard to see the ace potential that he was hyped as having right now. But pitchers are weird; he could easily come to camp next year with some new pitch and start striking out the world.

Trixie: Phillies have a shot at .500 next year?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how aggressively they upgrade their rotation. Need several new arms behind Nola. I think the offense could be decent, though.

Tim: What do you think the Nats will do with Robles next year?

Dave Cameron: Start the year in the minors, come up mid-summer and displace Taylor/Goodwin if he’s playing well at AAA and they aren’t having good years.

Jay: Obviously the playoffs can be so random, but if the Yankees end up hosting the Twins in the Wild Card game, wouldnt they be better served not using Severino so he’s ready for Game 1 of an ALDS matchup because the Yankees bullpen is better than any 1 pitcher on the Twins?

Dave Cameron: I’d definitely think about it, especially if I knew I could get 3 innings from Chad Green.

Dipoto Interiors: Vogelbach is not a major league player.  Is that approximately correct?

Dave Cameron: He might have a career as a low-end platoon DH.

Mel: Why does spin rate matter?

Dave Cameron: It determines whether your pitch will miss bats (high spin) or get grounders (low spin)

Dave P: How is Matt Kemp still a starting OF in MLB?

Dave Cameron: He’s not.

Dirty Sanchez: Re your Matt Olson guess, 260/330/500 is pretty close to what  Jay Bruce is putting up this year. 120 wRC+. Does that sound like a decent comp to you?

Dave Cameron: Sure, but obviously with less defensive value.

Sean: Would Hoskins and Buxton figure prominently on the trade value list at this point?

Dave Cameron: They’d both be in the top 50.

Dave Cameron: I don’t know that they’d be in the top 25, though.

Julio Pepper: Do you think anybody wants a game without starting pitchers, even while it’s the best strategy to win? At that point do you think we’re looking at some kind of rule change, or is the continuation of this trend not a fundamental change to baseball?

Dave Cameron: I do think MLB will have to do something to push back against the rising velocity/strikeout trend at some point. Lowering the mound seems like the most reasonable option, given that it’s been done before. But I don’t know that there’s any real way to stop teams from changing pitchers regularly, given that it works.

Dave Cameron: And you can’t really write rules about number of pitching changes into the game when limiting pitching changes directly risks pitcher health.

Kevin: What do you think of the Jays’ re-signing of Estrada?  Are they seriously hoping to compete next year, or are they just trying to amass talent that they can deal at the deadline? Is this a smart risk for them to take?

Dave Cameron: They definitely are going to try to win again next year.

Dave Cameron: And they’ll sell mid-season if it doesn’t work.

Fake Comments
Given that the Yankees Red Sox look to be good for a while and the rays and blue jays are going to try and compete what reasoning is there to not trade Machado? It’ll suck when he’s a red Sox or Yankee but it’ll suck much worse if the O’s only get back a pick…

Dave Cameron: The only case for not trading him is if you believe you can re-sign him. If you can’t, you have to move him.

PTBNL: Between now and 2020 it seems like the three best-positioned teams for sustained excellence are Houston, LAD, and Cleveland. Which teams constitute tier 2 of the power rankings over the next few years?

Dave Cameron: The Cubs aren’t exactly bad or old yet. NYY and BOS are in that conversation too.

Endless Backlash: Do you see the Cubs re-signing Arrieta?  He’s a Boras client and it’s very clear that he’s going for max money and won’t take any sort of discount from Chicago.  Top FA starters are going to command that Lester-type contract, so if the Cubs are going to spend that, would he be worth the risk from age 32-37 (or so) or would another FA (or multiple FAs) be a better fit for them?

Dave Cameron: I could see if if he takes a short-term deal to try and have a better season next year. Maybe a 2 or 3 year deal with an opt out.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Theo gives him 5+

Babe Lincoln: FWIW, I see pre-roll ads in the embedded videos on the site even though I’m logged in with my membership.  Not sure if that’s something FG is aware of or can do anything about, but I’m much less likely to watch the videos now.

Dave Cameron: We didn’t put those ads there.

Dave Cameron: Streamable has started loading pre-rolls, so we’re looking into alternatives.

Sano Laughing Matter: How does it feel to have comments that address topics other than the likelihood of landing Otani?

Dave Cameron: Still plenty of Ohtani questions in the queue. I’m just passing most of them over since last week’s chat was all Ohtani, all the time.

Mookie Cookie: Re Twins/Brewers: That’s not really fair to the twins. Their offense has come alive in the second half. Also the same analyses works for the NL contenders falling apart (COL, STL, etc)

Dave Cameron: ARI/COL have created a legitimate barrier to MIL making the playoffs by default. The Twins could make the Wild Card with 83 or 84 wins.

Dave Cameron: The Twins have had a good season. But put them in the NL, they aren’t in the race.

RMR: Zack Cozart continues to hit and just pushed past 5 WAR.   I realize the Reds are highly unlikely to give him the QO, but do you think he gets the $50M FA contract that would trigger QO compensation?  With the offer?  Without?

Dave Cameron: I still think he’s looking at 3/36M or something, especially if he’s QO-attached.

Gookie Dawkins: What does middling spin lead to?

Dave Cameron: Dingers.

Guest: What would you do with the Astros postseason rotation as far as who starts/who moves to the pen? Starting to get the feeling McCullers will move to the pen and give way to Morton/McHugh as the 3-4 guys

Dave Cameron: Verlander and Keuchel as 6 IP starters. Peacock/McCullers and Morton/McHugh tandem starts.

Jay: In hindsight, don’t you think it was a little unfair to say Mets fans should be happy if Rosario is a little better version of Orlando Arcia? He’s playing at a 3WAR/yr rate while being one of the youngest players in the major leagues, known to have a great work ethic and is doing so while running a higher than expected K rates and Lower than expected BB rates that should both regress.

Dave Cameron: So his BB and K are going to improve but his .150 ISO is totally for real?

Dave Cameron: He ran a .137 ISO in one of the best hitters parks in Triple-A, and his power so far is based entirely on half of his XBH going for HRs.

Oyster Burns: Could you rank Hoskins, Olsen, judge for me in terms of career potential at the dish?

Dave Cameron: Judge, Hoskins, Olson

Kevin: Boycott Sherwin Williams until they pay up for JUp’s ball in the can!!!

Dave Cameron: Boycott Sherwin Williams because holy crap is their paint expensive.

Dallas Keuchel: Do you know of any reason why a particular pitcher would dominate a given franchise over the course of their career? Even when the opposing teams roster changes.

Dave Cameron: Randomness

Kevin: Tell me why the Braves are a playoff team in 2018.

Dave Cameron: They aren’t. But if it happens, it would be because Acuna came up and put up +10 WAR.

JT: Luis Gohara seems to have an interesting profile. Easy velo, decent secondary stuff. Control comes and goes tho. What do you think of him?

Dave Cameron: Plenty of upside, as the stuff is legit. But needs polish.

Aaron: One run game in the 8th, your best hitter is at bat down 0-2 with 2 outs, and a man on first. Why not let the man on get picked off so that your slugger could get a fresh count in the 9th?

Dave Cameron: Assuming your best hitter isn’t batting in front of a pitcher, the difference between him and the guy behind him isn’t large enough to intentionally surrender a baserunner.

Guest: Judge is running a 172 wRC+ in September. Any way he works himself back into MVP?

Dave Cameron: He shouldn’t have ever left the MVP conversation.

YKnotDisco?!: Have players become more talented than past generations or has the ball itself and defensive positioning turned fringe players into major contributors?

Dave Cameron: Players clearly get more talented every year. If you transported Babe Ruth into today’s game, he’d be Dan Vogelbach.

Tom: What AL teams should the Braves be looking at to try and dump Kemp off as a DH

Dave Cameron: The Royals. They love ex-Braves and don’t value OBP.

Gookie Dawkins: Which award are you voting for this year?

Dave Cameron: NL Rookie of the Year.

Dave Cameron: It’s not going to require that much effort to figure out who to put up top.

AC000000: RE the surrendering a baserunner question. Your “in front of the pitcher” statement is interesting. So are you saying that if you had double switched a pitcher into the 5 hole (extra inning NL game) and was due up next, that strategy would make sense?

Dave Cameron: Maybe, but then you’d also have to not have someone worth pinch hitting for the P on deck.

JT: Albies got more pop than you thought he would? I know KATOH always really liked him but I didn’t see this much power.

Dave Cameron: Average FB exit velo of 91. Still not a lot of power there. He’ll help his ISO with getting some triples, but he’s probably still an average power guy at best for the next few years.

Anthony: Is Eugenio Suarez an above – average player moving forward? 115 wRC+ with decent defense at third?

Dave Cameron: Defense is way better than decent now.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s a good piece.

Hatzis: People say that even the worst manager can’t lose too many games. Is that true? Is a guy like Matheny really only losing a game or two more than the Maddons and Franconas of baseball?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, because there’s more to managing than strategy.

Dave Cameron: You could argue that a guy like Matt Williams, who all the players openly hated, could have been worse than a few wins negative.

Dave Cameron: But just in terms of pitching changes and setting line-ups? It’s not going to be a huge gap.

Chris: Speaking of Suarez, Reds have Nick Senzel coming up to take over 3B. Does that mean Suarez position is changed, or he is traded for pitching?

Dave Cameron: Move Senzel back to 2B.

Dave Cameron: He played there some in college, I believe.

Dave Cameron: Peraza isn’t good.

MLBTR Juggalo: Do you think Luke Weaver is proving a lot of prospect evaluators wrong?  He’s looking like a solid #2 starter

Dave Cameron: Fastball was probably underrated coming up, as it’s a swing and miss pitch. He’s not this good, but yeah, I’d call him one of the best young arms in the game.

Dave Cameron: Alright, that’s going to do it for me today. Thanks for hanging out, everyone.

Dave Cameron: We’ll have our final regular season chat next Wednesday.

Dave Cameron: Then, Wild Card live blogs in two weeks. Should be fun.