Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 9/28/16

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone. It’s the final chat of the regular season; next week we’ll be in full on postseason mode.

Dave Cameron: So let’s wrap up the six month run with an hour’s worth of baseball talk.

Matt: Will the death of Jose Fernandez impact your Cy Young award vote?

Dave Cameron: I’ve spent a decent amount of time thinking about this over the last few days, and I continue to be of mixed feelings. On the one hand, Fernandez is a legitimate candidate, and we will never get to vote for him again; giving him the award would be a great way to say goodbye. On the other hand, I’m uncomfortable with the idea that an award for on-field performance should be determined by something like this, and think it’s not fair to Jose or the other contenders to decide my vote based on his death. In the end, I think I’m going to vote as if he was still alive, and not have it impact the ballot.

Tommy Lasordid: Considering the current health of both teams, should the Dodgers be considered favorites over the Nats?

Dave Cameron: I would say so, yes.

Asabin: How much do you expect a win to be worth on the free agent market this offseason? How much was it last offseason?

Dave Cameron: It was roughly $8 million last year. I’d expect it to be around that again.

Ben: Absolutely loved Pitch Talks Chicago. Was it just me, or did Jason Benefit steal the show?

Dave Cameron: Thanks for coming out. I thought a lot of people were great, but yeah, he was definitely entertaining.

Thomas: How much of the “World Series winner isn’t necessarily the best team in baseball” problem would be solved by just having another trophy given to the team with the best record at the end of the season. That way, we can recognize that “best team at the end of the season” and “World Series champion” are two different things that both are worthy of praise

Dave Cameron: I don’t think having a trophy for regular season record would work; that’s basically what the division title banners that teams raise are, though.

Theresa May: Would you consider providing the analyses used for FanGraphs articles in a reproducible format? (i.e. have both the code and data available if it’s not proprietary)

Dave Cameron: Almost everything on FanGraphs is available on the leaderboards, in exportable formats. Besides UZR/DRS (which we license and did not create ourselves), nearly everything we have is easily recreated from the raw data.

Erik: Trying to get an idea of how much we can believe in abnormal BABIPs: Mike Trout has a .360 BABIP after 5+ seasons. As a rule of thumb, how far should we regress that towards .300 to get an idea of his real skill? Around 50% of the way? Or is 5 years a large enough sample to believe that basically 100% of it is a skill?

Dave Cameron: There’s much more variance in BABIP skill for hitters than pitchers. Line drive guys who never hit infield flies run .360ish BABIPs over thousands of plate appearances. I think Yelich’s career BABIP is over .360.

B.B. Rodriguez: If it comes down to the last game for the Jays and they might lose home field advantage to the O’s. Should they cede(pitch Dickey) the home field to save Sanchez to pitch the wild card game in Baltimore. Sanchez has owned the O’s this year.

Dave Cameron: Home field isn’t important enough to screw up your playoff rotation.

Julio Pepper: A heretofore undiscovered 5yr old Seager brother emerges. You are a wealthy investor, and you know nothing else about him; how much would you be willing to pay for his future MLB earnings?

Dave Cameron: This is a fun question. Justin Seager gives you pause, as it’s clear that not every Seager can hit just because he comes from that family. But given what Corey/Kyle have become, I think you have to at least throw down a few hundred grand just because.

Dave Cameron: (This assumes I am totally fine losing a few hundred grand)

Guest: Do you have any thoughts on how the A’s pitchers are 14th in BABIP, yet they are the worst fielding team in the league? Seems really counter intuitive

Dave Cameron: The A’s play in a BABIP-suppressing park.

Steve: What would your Dodgers playoff rotation look like?

Dave Cameron: Writing about this today, but I don’t think their “#4 starter” actually matters.

Dave Cameron: It’s Kershaw-Hill-Maeda-bullpen game

J: Is there a way to factor in data on batted balls to help UBR and other base running metrics to see how often a player takes an extra base relative to the average runner?

Dave Cameron: That is literally what UBR does.

Dave Cameron: On our playoff odds page, there’s a date selector tool. http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

NatsFan: Is there anyway for readers to see changes in playoff odds over time? Specifically, I want to see how much the Nats are affected by Ramos going down

Dave Cameron: Not sure why the answer showed up first, but there you go.

Rick: You mentioned on the pod that teams are taking a venture capitalist approach to analytics by investing in tech start-up companies that may have relevance to baseball. Do you know of specific companies/projects that a team has invested in?

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers are the team doing this at the moment; I bet other teams will follow eventually.

Dave Cameron: http://www.dodgersaccelerator.com/alumni/

Chris: Be honest: how strong is the urge to write a ‘told-you-so’ article about the Dodgers?

Dave Cameron: Not that strong; in any given year, there’s so many things that could swing the results one way or the other that pretending that we “knew” the Dodgers were going to be this good is silly. As long as we keep doing analysis based off quality data, our long-run results will show it, and people can judge for themselves whether or not we’re credible.

The Lure of the Animal: At this moment, what is the most convincing baseball argument that the Cubs won’t win it all?

Dave Cameron: That the postseason is mostly random and even the best team in an 8 team tournament is something like 80% likely to not win it all.

some guy: Every qualified first baseman has a negative defensive WAR. Does the model need tweaked or did literally every single starting first baseman decide to be terrible in the field this year?

Dave Cameron: First off, there’s no such thing as defensive WAR. The DEF stat, which is what you’re referring to, is defensive value relative to the average of all players, position-adjustment included. Because 1Bs are selected based on their inability to play more challenging defensive positions, they are less valuable than defenders at other positions. If you want to look at how a 1B rates solely within his position (where there are lots of above average players, as you’d expect), you want UZR or DRS.

Baseball Fan: Hey Dave, huge fan of all you guys do. I really enjoyed the Jose Fernandez moments you guys talked about. I played baseball through college (graduated this past May) so I just got finished. I like to think that I always played the game because I had so much fun doing it with my friends, never because I saw it as a vehicle to get a scholarship, etc. Anyway, Jose Fernandez was just an extremely refreshing figure in professional sports. You could really see the joy and happiness that he had playing the game. I don’t really have a question, just that this guy was the perfect example for this younger generation on why you play the game. Thanks again.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for sharing.

Sledge: Lots of discussion on Nats Twitter whether it would make sense to start Gio in game 1, given the Dodgers weakness vs LHP, and the fact that Scherzer doesn’t like short rest so he wouldn’t pitch again until game 5 regardless of starting 1 or 2. Any thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Platoon splits don’t matter enough to outweigh the huge gap in talent.

Jeff: Say Verlander is able to bring his ERA to around or below 3 to lead the AL in his final start, finishes w. the lead in strikeouts, and Tigers make the playoffs. How good would his CY chances be?

Dave Cameron: Pretty good.

Adam: Thoughts on the DBacks firing of De Jon Watson?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think he’ll be the last to go.

mtsw: If you’re the Orioles how do you approach the wild card game (if they make it?) Just go full bullpen game?

Dave Cameron: Yep. They are the perfect team to just screw the starting pitcher and rely on their pen.

Max Scherzer: The Ringer gave me the NL Cy Young. Do you agree?

Dave Cameron: I can’t say definitively, since I have a ballot, but that’s probably not how I’m going to vote.

Michael H: Will Fangraphs ever produce a preseason top 100 prospect list?

Dave Cameron: Yes, Eric Longenhagen will put one out next spring.

Greg: Dave is it me or are The Red Sox starters giving up home runs at an alarming rate?

Dave Cameron: Everyone is giving up HRs at alarming rates. Welcome to baseball in 2016.

Rob: Does a team like the White Sox already know their off-season plan or could them winning their remaining games & finishing .500 stupidly change the plan of the FO (i.e. Kenny Williams)?

Dave Cameron: No one is pivoting based on the final five games. I’d say the eliminated teams already have a decent idea about what they’re going to do this winter, minus specific plans.

Joe Maddon: What should I do for the playoff rotation?

Dave Cameron: I’d go Lester-Hendricks-Arrieta-Lackey, though I’d be open to flipping the order of the first three based on match-ups.

SEAtoSD: Can AJ Preller save his reputation? It’ll be interesting to see how his *legacy is ultimately remembered.

Dave Cameron: He’s had this reputation for years; he’s just cementing it now.

SEAtoSD: How does a guy like Mookie Betts or Kris Bryant get so overlooked as an amateur talent?

Dave Cameron: Scouting is really hard.

Michael H: What do the Yankees do with their lineup next year? Use Mccann as DH with Sanchez catching and Austin backup 1B/OF/DH or trade McCann and hope their other options fill out the remaining spots?

Dave Cameron: McCann is almost certainly traded this winter.

Jake: Obviously the Cubs are a much better team than any of the WC contenders and probably don’t care who they face but is there any out of the three that you think could give the Cubs more trouble than the other two with one of their strengths? Syndergaard and the Mets pen? Cueto and Bumgarner? Cardinals home runs?

Dave Cameron: Of that group, I’d probably least like to face the Giants. Just too high a chance that Cueto/Bumgarner pitch at insanely high levels and they steal three wins between them.

jon: Does Mike Rizzo give Ramos a QO? Does Ramos take it?

Dave Cameron: It will be a fascinating question. Assuming a catcher’s return from a torn ACL is something like ~9 months, if I’m remembering corretly, Ramos is probably out for a good chunk of next year too. I don’t think anyone will want to pay him $16M for half a season. I could see teams giving him a multi-year deal with a low 2017 salary though.

Zonk: Mozielak just said the Cardinals intend to improve their fielding this offseason. Is that a reaction to the Cubs success in that regard? That probably means Holliday and Moss are not coming back, doesn’t it?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think it’s a reaction to the Cubs; I think it’s an admittance that they put a lousy defensive team on the field this year, and it hurt their pitching staff.

jon: Re: QO — the Ramos case is one of the more acute cases, in my opinion, where the interests of the franchise are probably best suited by gambling with a QO given the draft pick value, no?

Dave Cameron: I think the odds of Ramos turning down a QO are very slim.

Dave Cameron: So you probably can’t count on getting a pick.

Michael: Which of the Rockies established outfielders do you see as most likely getting traded or do they stand pat with Jon Gray and Pat Hoffman showing signs of improvement and even add?

Dave Cameron: I never have any idea what the Rockies are doing or going to do.

Dave Cameron: I continue to not see this potential contender they think they have.

TP for my Byung Ho: What explains historical changes in League-wide BABIP? I’m having trouble wrapping my dome around what might cause the increase.

Dave Cameron: Changes in the liveliness of the ball, changes in defensive positioning, changes in the types of players teams are selecting to play the field, changes in the strike zone…

Mike_C: So, is it safe to assume that 2016 represents Freddie Freeman’s ceiling. I can’t imagine him posting a better year then this.

Dave Cameron: It’s tough for a 1B to do much more than he’s done. Theoretically he could still spike his power even more or something, but yeah, this is probably as close to as good as he gets.

Wilfie: Could I say that Eric Hosmer is still a valuable player and not get laughed at by the FG staff?

Dave Cameron: Sure, if by valuable player, you mean roughly league average.

Darren: Re Rockies: Bettis, Gray, Anderson have been really decent through ’16, Hoffman, Senzatella on the rise, and Chatwood still around…Could be worse, no?

Dave Cameron: Young pitching is not a wise thing to count on. Young pitching in Coors Field is an especially unwise thing to count on.

Brian: Should the Cards offer Moss a QO this offseason? If so, would he accept?

Dave Cameron: No, he’s not worth $16-$17M. He’d take it in an instant.

Zonk: I consider myself a baseball geek, yet in September I often see a player in a box score and think “I have never heard of that guy”. Does that even happen to you, a baseball pro?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, there are just way too many fringe relievers to know them all.

Stenzy: Is this the offseason that the Giants finally address their lack of power and sign a big bat?

Dave Cameron: And what big bat would that be?

Dave Cameron: This free agent class stinks.

Dave Cameron: Do you want them to be the one who signs up for the silly Mark Trumbo contract?

Billy Haywood: If you were a manager and facing the Dodgers, would you consider not starting your ace in game 1 to avoid a matchup where he faces Kershaw?

Dave Cameron: Even as great as Kershaw is, you don’t punt a playoff game.

Stenzy: Not Trumbo for defensive reasons. Braun, Saunders, Frazier?

Dave Cameron: Braun isn’t exactly a great defender himself. Saunders is a big bat now?

Dave Cameron: The reality is that teams don’t need “power” to win; they need good players. Getting worse players because they have a specific skill is a great way to build a non-winning team.

Benjamin Ebek: EE and Bautista aren’t big bats?

Dave Cameron: Why would the Giants sign a DH?

Benjamin Ebek: Because DHs can play 1b?

Dave Cameron: They’re punting Brandon Belt now?

Michael: Could you see the Angels going for a reunion with Trumbo?

Dave Cameron: No. I’d bet Trumbo re-signs in Baltimore.

Russ: With John Coppolella talking about how the Braves having “more money to spend than in the past 10 years” combined with a weak free agent class this offseason, how worried should I be that the Braves will overpay for the likes of a Jaime Garcia to pretend to compete in 2017?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know that Garcia is going to inspire any kind of bidding war this winter, given how he’s pitched this year.

sam: Andrew McCutchen will be playing for ______ next April? What about next August?

Dave Cameron: The Pirates, both times.

jon: How seriously are you considering Jon Lester for NL Cy Young? Running away with RA9-War and leads the league in starts of 0 or 1 runs, but more modest FIP based stats.

Dave Cameron: He’s definitely in the mix.

Bubba James: What’s the short version of why fWAR is better than rWAR or WARP? And why the huge discrepancy between them? (e.g. Trout is at 9.2, 10.5, and 8.6, respectively)

Dave Cameron: The primary differences for position players are going to come from the defensive metrics. We use UZR, B-R uses DRS (usually larger spreads, so bigger pluses or minuses for fielders at each end of spectrum), and BP uses FRAA.

Tony: If you were in charge of baseball how would you change the playoffs to remove the ‘crapshoot’ aspect of it, or would you change it at all? Part of me loves the idea that anything can happen, so much better than the NBA playoffs, but the other part of me hates the fact that you can win 105 games and only have roughly ~20% chance of winning it (can you guess which team I’m a fan of?)

Dave Cameron: The reality of baseball is that the spread in talent between teams is just much smaller than in other sports, so the only way to ensure that the “best” teams win is to have very large samples; even 162 games isn’t really enough to allow you to judge team quality based on W-L record alone. So if you’re going to have a short postseason tournament, you’re going to have a champion determined mostly by randomness.

Dave Cameron: Alright, that’s going to do it for me this week. We’ll have our usual live blogs of the Wild Card games next week, so I’ll see you guys on Tuesday for the first play-in game.