David Price’s Trade Value
With the Red Sox trying to cut payroll and increase profits at the expense of the on-field product, it would make sense that the team might try to deal one of their most expensive players. David Price put up a very good season for the Red Sox in 2016 and helped the club win the World Series in 2018, but he made just 22 starts last year and began the offseason recovering from surgery on his wrist. When he did pitch this season, Price was effective, with a 3.62 FIP and 2.6 WAR despite just 107 innings, but the 34-year-old only threw 24 innings after the All-Star Break and his health is a huge question mark. Despite those concerns, Jeff Passan is reporting that teams are inquiring about the possibility of acquiring the left-hander.
The Boston Red Sox continue to pursue ways to shed salary, and multiple teams have targeted starter David Price, sources tell ESPN. He is owed $96 million over the next three years. Red Sox could either attach player with value or potentially pay down some of Price's remaining $.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 11, 2019
Given the present injury concerns, determining Price’s trade value is a bit difficult. Dan Szymborski provided the following ZiPS projections for Price over the next three seasons:
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 9 | 6 | 4.01 | 23 | 23 | 128.0 | 121 | 19 | 36 | 137 | 114 | 2.4 |
| 2021 | 8 | 6 | 4.20 | 21 | 21 | 113.7 | 111 | 17 | 32 | 118 | 109 | 1.9 |
| 2022 | 7 | 6 | 4.35 | 21 | 20 | 111.7 | 111 | 18 | 32 | 115 | 105 | 1.7 |
If we were to take those numbers at face value, and put a $9 million estimate on the value of a win on the market, we’d come up with a $42 million deficit between Price’s contract and his expected value; his health provides further complications. The lefty has never undergone Tommy John surgery, but he had a scare ahead of the 2017 season. He missed the first two months of the season due to elbow troubles, and then made just 11 starts before going on the disabled list with left elbow inflammation. At the time, Ken Rosenthal wrote a lengthy article describing the unique qualities of Price’s elbow, and compared him to Nolan Ryan:
According to Price, Andrews said the formation of bone on his ulnar collateral ligament was comparable to Ryan’s situation. Ryan, who said he never saw Andrews, was not surprised to hear the famed surgeon knew about the uniqueness of his elbow, reasoning that baseball doctors exchange information. Andrews declined to discuss specific cases but spoke generally about what he called the bony ossification of the UCL.
“Repeated stress to the ligament over its attachment below the joint causes a gradual pulling reaction that over time forms what we call a traction spur,” Andrews said. “It pulls on it and instead of pulling off, it has a healing response with calcification and eventually bone formation. The bone that forms protrudes up into the ligament. You can say that the actual ligament turns into bone as it progresses.”
Andrews said pitchers who heal in such fashion sometimes go their entire career without suffering major elbow injuries. Some, however, still require Tommy John surgery.
While Price’s elbow might be able to heal without surgery, it didn’t prevent tendinitis and a stint on the injured list last season. The surgery on Price’s wrist addressed a cyst, and he is expected to make a full recovery by spring training. One could argue that the ZiPS projections account for Price’s potential for injury, but we can also look at free agency and see that Cole Hamels just signed a one-year deal for $18 million. Hamels is two years older than Price, but he has similar projections. It’s possible Hamels could have gotten a two-year deal for less than $18 million per year, but he also finished the season healthy and struck out eight batters against zero walks in his final start of the season. If Price were a free agent today, it’s tough to see him getting anything other than a one-year deal, but even over two years, it’s hard to see his value as any more than $30 million.
If we assume Price’s value is around $30 million, it creates a $60 million gap between his value and his contract. Maybe saving $5 million to $10 million in payroll is enough to satisfy Boston, but presumably they are looking for greater savings by potentially moving their most expensive player. If that’s the case and the Red Sox are intent on lowering payroll, then Passan’s suggestion to attach a player of value makes some sense. The problem, then, is finding such a player.
Of their long-term deals, Chris Sale and J.D. Martinez likely wouldn’t add significant value above what they are owed. Xander Bogaerts‘ contract looks great for Boston, but moving him would set them back significantly in terms of talent. The same is true for Rafael Devers. Moving Mookie Betts just to pay down Price’s contract might save a lot of money, but trading the club’s best player without receiving significant talent back likely isn’t worth the savings if Boston wants to win in the next few years. That basically leaves Andrew Benintendi, Eduardo Rodriguez, and a whole lot of minor leaguers. The team could offer prospects along with Price, the same way the Angels just traded Will Wilson to the Giants with Zack Cozart’s $12 million remaining on his contract. The Red Sox have an interesting set of prospects, but the team would have to decimate their system to pay down Price’s contract using their young guys.
As for Rodriguez, he’s projected for three wins next season at a salary of about $10 million. If we assume a projected six wins over the next two seasons, and a salary of roughly $25 million total, we see Rodriguez providing roughly $29 million in value above his expected salary. That makes a fair trade something like Price, Rodriguez, and $30 million of Price’s contract. That trade would put Boston’s payroll roughly $10 million below the luxury tax level, though it would also give them one of the five worst rotations in the sport. Substituting Benintendi provides eight or nine wins over the next three years with around $25 million in total salary over the next three seasons. Benintendi’s value then sits in the $50 million range above his expected pay. Packaging Benintendi with Price and maybe $5 million per year is pretty close to a fair deal. Is that a deal that makes sense for the Red Sox? That depends on how important it is to Boston to get below the competitive balance tax threshold.
A Red Sox team without Price and Benintendi would be cheaper and not as good, but the team would still be a contender. They would be a mid-to-upper-80s win team with little shot at a division title behind the Yankees and Rays; they would have a shot at the Wild Card. Given Boston’s recent history of success, the support of the fans, and the revenues produced by ticket sales and their local cable channel ownership, giving up a year of contention in the final year of Mookie Betts’ team control all in the name of sustained success doesn’t find a logical home when no talent is returned in the deal. These are potential cost-cutting measures that have little to do with future on-field success.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Unfortunately, as much as I like Benintendi to rebound some this year, I think the Price/Benintendi deal is more feasible given that losing not one, but TWO, starting pitchers would be catastrophic for this pitching depth-lacking team.
I hate Andrew Benintendi with a burning passion. I was at 2018 ALCS game 4 rooting for the Astros
Very good analysis, and it probably aligns with some of the internal discussions that teams have. This is also exhibit 534 for why the luxury tax is something that the players union needs to target in the next CBA, because the punitive aspects of it are functioning too much like a salary cap (and depressing salaries). For a team like the Red Sox, each dollar they spend on players salaries has a 1.X marginal cost, which completely removes them from free agency. Additionally, by adding these players to the trade market, it depresses the salary of current free agents.
A system that removes big market teams, who plan to contend in the following year, from free agency is one that needs to be re-evaluated.
The luxury tax and service time manipulation exist for competitive parity between big- and small-market teams. Do we really need the 534th discussion of the pluses and minuses of salary caps and floors in other sports and coupling that with a Rule 5 – type expansion draft to preserve parity so that fans can feel better about “salary suppression”? It’s not a perfect market — young stars need to be paid more — and this is all easily addressable in the next CBA.
I mentioned Benintendi being packaged with Price a couple months ago (though that was in the context of finding a way to extend Betts and get under the luxury cap) and was shut down, I think appropriately. BOS is better off doing a bad contract swap as sadTrombone notes below and if they’re not able to get enough payroll relief (they’re at $227M now and need to get below $208M) from that, they can always give away JDM & JBJ. No need to give away a 3-win player with 3 years of control like Benintendi.
The problem is not the big market teams who don’t pass the luxury tax but the many teams who are 70, 80 or even 100 mil short of the limit. In some cases such a low payroll can make sense (rebuild) but there are teams who don’t even go over 130m when they are good.
In nba the first and last team are much closer in payroll than mlb is
Competitive balance is just the excuse the owners use. It is a way to restrain spending. Regardless, the players do not benefit at all from it.
Throw in JBJ?
Another point to consider – if the Red Sox want to dump Price, this year is the best chance to do so. After this season, he becomes 10/5 player and can veto any trade .
“Packaging Benintendi with Price and maybe $5 million per year is pretty close to a fair deal.” I like the sound of that for the Cardinals.
I think the Cardinals would be really smart to jump on that deal even without the $5M per year. Maybe Benintendi isn’t a 4-win player going forward but he’d be a very good fit in left field.
Sounds good on paper but the Cards are already crying poor so they seem unlikely to add over 30 million in salary. If they wanted to spend that much they have better options.
I was thinking about this earlier today because I was trying to figure out what it would take for the Angels to dump Albert Pujols (which is really complicated because of the no-trade clause). Here is a list of some big, bad, underwater contracts:
Miguel Cabrera (4/$124M–almost certainly the worst contract in baseball right now and totally untradeable)
Joey Votto (4/$107M–still some possibility of a bounceback maybe, and mashes righties)
Eric Hosmer (6/$99M–change of scenery candidate, big money but lower AAV)
David Price (3/$96M–good player if healthy, major health concerns)
Jason Heyward (4/$86M–useful player but not worth the money)
Robinson Cano (4/$85M–I have high hopes for a bounceback but with the no trade he isn’t going anywhere)
Charlie Blackmon (4/$73M–game is built entirely around weird properties of Coors field, and average hitter outside of Coors; bad defender. Will never be traded because he’ll always be worth more to the Rockies than another team)
Justin Upton (3/$72M–could very well bounce back and be worth this, but who knows?)
Wil Myers (3/$60M–definitely needs a change of scenery)
Pujols (2/$59M–huge AAV, not worth a roster spot, has no trade…not sure what would have to happen here)
Chris Davis (3/$51M–a candidate for the worst player on a major league roster)
Nathan Eovaldi (3/$51M–this looks really bad now but he still has a shot to bounce back)
Johnny Cueeto (2/$49M–I have no idea what to expect out of him)
Which ones do you think are tradeable? Are some of them tradeable for each other, with some prospects thrown in? I actually think that Price for Hosmer might work, although the Padres probably aren’t ready to admit their mistake (the Angels would probably love to swap Pujols for Hosmer too but that seems like a worse deal than getting Price).
Pujols? A negotiated buyout.
They’ll need the roster spot.
Votto will get a chance to bounce back.
So will Cano and most of the others.
Davis might get a few weeks to show something or they show him the door. And that’s best case. He might get cut in spring.
I see little logic in the Red Sox taking on 6 years of an underwater contract for 3 of Price’s. Price has more on field value than Hosmer, the cost savings here just wouldn’t be worth the additional 3 years.
Now hypothetically taking on a Cano or Heyward with 1 more year but a lower AAV could make some sense but still unlikely.
The relative difference in on field value between some of these players makes swapping bad contracts so difficult. For example: Pujols is at or below replacement level at this point, while Price put up 4 bWAR as recently as 2018. If Price can repeat his 2018 season (a big if) he actually earns his salary for the year. Pujols doesn’t have the same kind of upside.
It’s easier to swap bad contracts when the players involved both have little to no on field value at the time of the trade. I.e. Homer Bailey for Kemp, Kemp for Olivera, etc.
Also, Hosmer isn’t a change of scenery candidate he’s just not very good but was paid as though he is.
I am kind of surprised that we haven’t heard anything from the Padres camp. Last year they went out and tried to get both Machado and Harper. I would of figured they would be in on Cole, and they were probably the “mystery team” but Cole likely wants to win now. Although, at least in my eyes it wouldn’t take a lot for the Padres to be a win now team either.
I mean, Preller did go out there and get both Pham and Profar, so it wasn’t like he sat idle. I just expected to hear more about them trying to get Cole, or Strasburg. You would have to think they will be in on one of the remaining pitchers on the market. With that said, that rotation has a lot of question marks, but a few good breaks and they could contend almost instantly. Lamet has a 13 k per 9 last year! Richards is a huge question mark but has long been a guy people expected a lot from. Davies seems to magically outperform his expected results. Lucchesi is there 5? Quantril isn’t even a starter? Gore waiting in the wings? Morejon? I started this comment thinking the Padres needed to do something, then I looked at their depth chart and came away thinking, wow. That pitching staff could be good to great as soon as this year.
Hosmer has a 4 war season before he became a fa. He didn’t deserve the contract but no one expected him to be this bad.
Hosmer had a 0.2 WAR season immediately preceding the 4, while also having -0.2 and -1.3 WAR seasons during his career.
Let’s go with Upton, straight up for Price. Then trade JBJ for a back-end, pre-arb pitcher and slide Mookie to center. Under the tax line, and still in it for ’20.
How far under the tax line?
Good list. But why wouldn’t Cano want to get off the dumpster fire team he is on? You would think there are a number of teams he would agree to be traded to.
I just realized that with a few more solid years votto could be a hall of famer
Given Boston’s obvious need for a second baseman and the Angels’ obvious need for a starting pitcher, La Stella for Price seems like a good framework for a deal. That would leave Simmons, Fletcher, and Rendon to play the infield in LA; La Stella to play second in Boston; and Price to slot into the rotation for the Angels. Of course, given Price’s negative value, as explained in the article, Boston would likely have to include someone else, even despite the clear difference in “name value” between Price and La Stella.
I’ve thought about this as well. Would love to have La Stella on the Sox even if much of his breakout may have been due to the juiced ball.
However I don’t seem how this deal gets made given Price’s negative value and La Stella’s positive value. It would cost Boston pieces they don’t have unless the Angels are really high on a Price bounce back.
It probably makes more sense for the Angels to maintain their depth and hang onto La Stella at this point. They can have a platoon at 2B with La Stella and Fletcher, while having both to fill in around the diamond as well.
People say its because of the juiced ball, which is true. But the ball might be here to stay.
A massively asset for a clearly positive asset is a good framework for a deal? You know you have to wait until spring training to smoke that Mary J right?
Given the uncertainties, the Price market requires a team with money to spend, a big hole in the rotation, and a need to at least *appear* as contenders.
That pretty much spells Angels and San Diego, where it might even be a good trade.
Less likely but technically posible, the Reds and Giants.
Barely conceivable, Colorado and Arizona.
Price and Benintendi for warm bodies does sound workable in California.
I would really like my White Sox to jump on a Price, Benintendi + cash type of deal.
Would be an excellent situation for the White Sox for a number of reasons (even without the cash), but they won’t do it because Jimenez would have to shift to DH or RF, pushing either Mazara or Collins out the lineup entirely. This would actually be really good for the White Sox, but would probably require a shift in thinking about them (one of whom they just acquired).
Maybe they could flip one for a decent young pitcher?
It probably wouldn’t work but I think it is a fair gamble for the Sox to take.
I think the fact so many teams would ‘jump on a deal’ for Price + Benintendi is a good indication that it isn’t going to happen.
Wouldn’t Boston fans go into revolt if their team traded Price and Benintendi for little to no return? I don’t live there, but they don’t seem like the most patient fan base in MLB.
With the hated Yankees simultaneously blowing past the soft cap? Revolt may be too light of a word.
Yes, but I would like to think that, given how last year turned out, the fan base would be more interested in who they bring in with that extra money. Their bullpen is gag-inducing no matter who tries to spin it otherwise, so if Price/Beni goes and Bloom is able to fill in some critical gaps, then they should go for it. Sitting pat isn’t likely to yield anything good as last year’s results attest.
Price is the least popular player on a Boston sports team since Manny. People in Boston don’t care if a player stinks, as long as he’s available to stink. They will go berserk if Price has to miss another start because he’s playing too much Fortnite. The fans would generally be in favor of throwing in Benintendi to rid the team of Price for little to no return.
Whatever personality issues Price has in the eyes of Boston fans, he earned infinite points of gratitude with the way he helped win the ’18 Series. I don’t think the Boston fans want him gone for a few ill-spoken comments.
And regarding ‘least popular player on a Boston sports team’, Price might only be considered that now thanks to Kyrie Irving and Antonio Brown getting off Boston-based teams. Actually, that guy Newhouse on the Patriots is probably the least popular player given his offensive line struggles.
Nice work, I like the analysis, although it’s sad, as an older baseball fan, to see a prioritizing of WAR/Value over pure talent, and a rush to get worse as a team if profitability is enhanced. The old Connie Mack Philadelphia Athletics used to do this periodically (without the WAR, of course) and it wasn’t any more appealing to the fan 90 years ago.
I think it’s reasonable to assume that the “gap” is quite a bit less than the $60M supposed in this article. There are a LOT of teams that still need a starter, and a lot of teams with reported money to spend that haven’t gotten exactly everything they need — you’d think the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers, Angels, Astros, Brewers, and Twins all might be shopping at some level in the market. It only takes one team to be bullish on those IP estimates, and be a little desperate, to make a deal happen.
I’m not sure if Boston should tear the whole thing down, but if they do, right now might be the best chance to do it.
Neither the twins nor the brewers have shown an interest in taking a big contract on an pitcher, much less a potential ticking bomb.
Dodgers are more likely to go for Ryu.
Astros have money issues and big raises coming.
Phillies got Wheeler.
Rangers might be desperate enough and can use Benintendi but their first priority is 3B, most likely Donaldson.
That contract is hard to move.
A full teardown might be in Boston’s future but not until next year if they can’t resign Mookie. They’re not quite as bad as last year…but not as good as 2018. Or the Yankees. The real question is how they stack up to the likely wild card chasers: Rays, twins/Cleveland, Oakland/Houston, Angels. Possibly even ChiSox. Pitching-wise they have work to do but the bats are fine as long as Mookie is around.
And with that Fanbase a teardown will raise screams.
They need to suck for more than one year.
You’re certainly right that Devers cannot be the Price throw-in because Boston should trade him to Atlanta for Waters (OF), Contreras (C), and two pitchers like Anderson /Wilson/Toussaint. Devers would save ATL loads of money by not having to re-up Donaldson while giving them an exciting bat with years of control. Meanwhile, Sox get a back-up C, an OF almost ready for the bigs, and some needed pitching depth. Sox put Chavis at 3B until May when Dalbec can be brought up for the position. Sam Travis holds down 1B until finally released. As for saving money, with Waters now on board, Benintendi can go with Price.
Devers to ATL is interesting, though idk about Waters, Contreras AND two of Wright/Anderson/Touki. That’s at the very least four top 10 ATL prospects and 3 top-5s… yeesh.
I mean the only reason ATL hasn’t re-signed JD is b/c Anthopoulos doesn’t want to give him 4 years. I wouldn’t think he’d RATHER trade 3/5 of his top-5 prospect list as an alternative. Maybe 1 top-5, a top 20 and someone like Camargo would be more acceptable?
Devers and Price for Cavan Biggio?
I could see a Cano-Price swap, but I dont think Cano would ever waive his NTC, especially since he used it to get back to NYC.
I certainly have no insight into what Cano prioritizes, but I can’t think of why anybody would want to be on the Mets if they have a chance to play for a decent team at the same money.
Is it worth talking that the Red Sox would be willing to give Price away solely to dump that ungodly contract? Package Price with Betts to sweeten the deal?
This is my pipe dream, completely unrealistic scenario:
1. Liverpool prepares a 120m pound bid for Son Heung Min
2. Strapped for cash, John Henry directs the Red Sox cut payroll
3. Red Sox trade Mookie to the Dodgers in return for taking on Price’s contract
Price to the Cardinals for Fowler. If no money changes hands — I suspect the Cards would ask for cash considerations for Price’s extra year, but it wouldn’t need to be too much — then it saves Boston about $17mn each of the next two years, which gets them under the tax, and if the Sawx decide to jettison JBJ for more room they have an above-replacement-level OF to step in. Fowler-Betts-Benintendi is still a decent OF, and the Sawx could still sign pitching with JBJ’s money while staying under the tax.
It frees up a roster spot for the Cardinals to play the kids in the OF (Bader, O’Neill, Arozarena, Thomas, Williams, and soon Carlson), and adds a rotation arm that they need given health concerns with Martinez and Reyes (all three are unlikely to be healthy all year, but one of the three should be at any given point in time).
Who says no?
If the goal is to cut salary to get under the cap, I’m not sure why there’s so much discussion about bad contract swaps (unless they are taking on a longer deal that’s less underwater per season, but that comes with it’s own issues).
Also, trading Price now amounts to selling low, and for a franchise that is in such payroll/cap trouble, they’ll really need everything to break right to compete with the Yankees over the next several years. So hoping that Price rebuilds some value and then maybe trading him seems more prudent.
Realistically, trading JD Martinez away (they’d probably even get something somewhat valuable if they can find the right AL team with a need at DH – Chicago?) seems like a better option to me.
“If the goal is to cut salary to get under the cap, I’m not sure why there’s so much discussion about bad contract swaps”
Because the deal is underwater and that would allow them to not have to give up a cheap young player to offload the contract. Either they pay some of Price’s salary, and/or they include a cheap young player, and/or they accept another contract back (albeit a smaller one since they are trying to save money). The first and third are functionally equivalent from the perspective of getting under the tax line, so may as well take back a flawed piece that might have *some* uses. This is why players like Fowler or Myers are being discussed.
If a team that appears as financially set as the sox moves a good player in arbitration in order to clear Price’s salary it will be the worst stain on this organization in a long time. If they want to reset and move Mookie because they know he won’t sign an extension, regardless of the offer, that’s one thing. But trading a 3 win player to save money when you’re such a wealthy team is just the lamest possible thing.