Despite High-Profile Injuries and Struggles, the Astros are Breathing Down the Mariners’ Necks

When the Astros awoke on May 7, they were 17-18 and had just slipped into fourth place in the AL West. They had recently placed Yordan Alvarez — who had struggled mightily to that point — on the injured list with what had been diagnosed as a muscle strain in his right hand. First baseman Christian Walker, their big free agent addition, was scuffling along below replacement level, and both new left fielder Jose Altuve and the group that replaced him at second base were playing every bit as badly. Meanwhile, their already-thin rotation had been further compromised by the loss of Spencer Arrighetti. But even while receiving more bad news on Alvarez, and losing two more starters — Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski — to Tommy John surgery, the Astros have turned things around, winning 15 of 24 and briefly sneaking into first place in the AL West.

At this writing, the Astros are now 32-27, and have trimmed the Mariners’ division lead from four games to half a game:

By comparison, the Mariners started 21-14, but have gone 11-12 since. Since May 6, the Astros have won four series (against the Reds, Royals, Mariners, and A’s), lost one (Rays), and split two (Rangers and Rays). They took three out of four from the Mariners at home from May 22-25, capped by Walker’s walk-off two-run homer off Casey Legumina on May 25. That was one of three walk-off victories during that span; Isaac Paredes‘ solo homer off the Royals’ John Schreiber on May 13 and Yainer Diaz’s solo homer off the Rays’ Garrett Cleavinger on May 30 were the others. The latter shot lifted the Astros’ record to 31-26, allowing them to sneak past the Mariners and into first place, but since then, Seattle beat Minnesota in each of its next two games while Houston split a pair with Tampa Bay, restoring the Mariners to first place by the barest of margins:

The offense has been the biggest driver of Houston’s surge, improving from 3.88 runs per game with a 94 wRC+ over the Astros’ first 35 games to 4.29 runs per game with a 119 wRC+ in the last 24. Every regular except Walker has hit for a 100 wRC+ or better over the latter span, as have part-timers Mauricio Dubón (who’s sharing second base with the much less productive Brendan Rodgers) and Zach Dezenzo (who shared time with Altuve in left and dabbled at DH in the absence of Alvarez before landing on the injured list with left hand inflammation). Only one Astro with at least 60 total plate appearances has been less productive since May 6 than he was before, namely center fielder Jake Meyers — and he’s still been comfortably above-average:

It’s taken a long time for the Astros to gain clarity regarding Alvarez, who last played on May 2 after sitting out for a couple of days due to what was initially described as inflammation in his right hand; the slugger said he’d hurt the hand swinging the bat in late April but played through pain because he’d dealt with similar injuries in the past. He went on the injured list on May 5, was diagnosed with a muscle strain following an MRI the next day, resumed taking batting practice on May 12, and continued to ramp up his baseball activities. After he homered during batting practice last Friday, he appeared close to returning to the lineup, but upon admitting he was still feeling discomfort, the Astros sent him for another MRI — and discovered that he’d fractured his fourth metacarpal. What was described as “a very small fracture” had previously been obscured by the inflammation and was only 60% healed; the injury may have been exacerbated as Alvarez increased the intensity of his rehab.

“It doesn’t surprise me that it was fractured,” Alvarez said on Friday. “I knew there was something on there on my first MRI. I had the muscle strain. That was what I was dealing with, and time passed and it was supposed to get better, but it wasn’t.”

Alvarez will be shut down from hitting until the fracture heals, and will probably need time to get his swing in order, so he could be out until mid-to-late June. In his absence, manager Joe Espada has mainly used Altuve, Dezenso, and whichever catcher wasn’t behind the plate that day (Caratini or Diaz) to DH, and while only Altuve has really thrived in that capacity, the team’s 108 wRC+ from that spot since losing Alvarez has been a significant improvement.

Altuve’s move to left field has not gone well on either end, in that he’s been lousy defensively (-7 DRS, -3 FRV) in 268 innings at the new position, while also starting slowly at the plate. He’s dabbled at second base as well, starting 12 games there, but the position has turned into a sinkhole: He, Dubón, and Rogers have combined for a 64 wRC+ and 0.5 WAR as second basemen. That said, Atuve’s bat has recently perked up; over his last 10 games, he’s homered five times while collecting 15 hits, lifting his overall wRC+ from 79 to 103.

Paredes and Peña have done the most to power this surge. While Paredes’ overall production (.252/.349/.445, 129 wRC+) hasn’t quite matched what the now-injured Alex Bregman has done in Boston thus far (.299/.385/.553, 160 wRC+), his wRC+ is higher than Bregman’s marks in his final two years as an Astro (126 in 2023, 118 last year), and he projects to approximate Bregman’s WAR in those years (4.5 and 4.2, respectively).

The 27-year-old Peña hit for a 100 wRC+ while averaging 16 homers, 15 steals, and 3.0 WAR in his first three seasons after replacing Carlos Correa, but right now he’s hitting .309/.373/.480 (145 wRC+) with nine homers and 10 steals. His wRC+ ranks second among all shortstops behind Jacob Wilson, while his 2.9 WAR is tops. After showing up to camp in 2024 with a new swing, he has continued to tinker. In addition to simplifying his upper body movement, according to Statcast’s metrics, he has opened his stance from three degrees to 18, increased the distance between his feet by about six inches, and has reduced the tilt of his swing — enough changes to fill an article down the road. Some of those changes aren’t hard to spot:

Those setups come from home runs last September 7 against the Diamondbacks and this past May 13 against the Royals:

While Peña’s average exit velocity of 88.3 mph is just 0.3 mph above his career norm, his 6.8% barrel rate and 41.7% hard-hit rate are his best marks since his rookie season, and his 20.3% pulled air rate and .433 xSLG are both career highs.

On the pitching side, the Astros haven’t been quite as stingy during this run (4.0 runs per game) as they were through May 6 (3.65 runs per game), but that has more to do with a few bullpen blowups than a rotation that has been solid on either side of the split despite weathering so many injuries:

Already down J.P. France, Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier due to surgeries (capsule repair for France, Tommy John for the other two), and Arrighetti due to a broken thumb when he was hit by an errant ball during batting practice, the Astros placed Wesneski on the IL with elbow discomfort on May 9. The 27-year-old righty, who was acquired from the Cubs in the Kyle Tucker trade along with Paredes and Cam Smith, broke camp as the fifth starter and made six starts with a 4.50 ERA and 4.77 FIP. An initial MRI on May 10 revealed only inflammation, but a follow-up examination by Dr. Keith Meister yielded the diagnosis of a torn UCL; he underwent surgery on May 23.

The 31-year-old Blanco, whose 2024 breakout included an April 1 no-hitter, appeared to be rounding into form after a rocky start to his season; he struck out a season-high 11 Reds in eight shutout innings on May 11, his penultimate start. Alas, he reported elbow soreness after a six-inning, three-run start on May 17 against the Rangers, went on the IL on May 22, and discovered he needed Tommy John surgery on May 28.

The two constants in Houston’s rotation have been Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez. The 26-year-old Brown has been stellar, allowing zero or one runs in eight of his 12 starts; his 1.83 ERA, 2.67 FIP, and 2.2 WAR all rank fourth in the AL. The 31-year-old Valdez has a 3.12 ERA and 3.24 FIP; he allowed 12 of his 27 runs in a pair of early April starts but has otherwise been outstanding as well. He needed just 83 pitches to throw a complete-game three-hitter against the Rays on May 30, the lowest total for a nine-inning game in six years.

The rotation is now rounded out by Lance McCullers Jr. and rookies Colton Gordon and Ryan Gusto. The 31-year-old McCullers joined the rotation on May 4, after a series of forearm injuries — culminating in surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon last June — kept him out of the majors since the 2022 postseason. His 5.89 ERA and 4.66 FIP aren’t pretty, but those numbers are distorted by a seven-run, one-out start against the Reds on May 10 (the one that elicited a death threat against his family from an intoxicated gambler who lives overseas). He’s allowed five earned runs in his other four starts totaling 18 innings, and finally made it through the fifth inning on May 28 against the A’s, throwing 102 pitches while striking out 12 in six innings. Gordon, a soft-tossing 26-year-old lefty, has been tagged for a 5.95 ERA and 4.30 FIP in four starts. He’s a 35+ FV prospect who gets great extension and throws a ton of strikes but is prone to serving up homers. Gusto, a 26-year-old righty, has been effective as a reliever thus far (0.93 ERA and 4.22 FIP in 9.2 innings) but not as a starter (5.83 ERA and 4.54 FIP in 29.1 innings), though to be fair, he’s been shuttled back and forth; he’s walked 10.7% of hitters and has given up a lot of hard contact.

Help is on the way… eventually. Arrighetti resumed throwing last week, but he’s looking at a July return. Javier, who underwent Tommy John surgery last June 6, began throwing bullpen sessions on May 9 but has been brought along slowly and likely won’t return until after the All-Star break. If anyone breaks down before those two return, AJ Blubaugh, a 25-year-old righty who was shellacked for seven runs (but just two earned) in an April 30 spot start against the Tigers, is probably the next man up; he’s a 40+ FV prospect with a starter’s repertoire but below-average command, as evidenced by his 13.7% walk rate and 6.59 ERA at Triple-A Sugarland. Beyond that, general manager Dana Brown may need to scare up a starter from outside the organization.

As for the bullpen, overall it has the AL’s second-highest strikeout rate (27.5%), second-lowest FIP (3.31) and seventh-lowest ERA (3.53). Closer Josh Hader, setup man Bryan Abreu, and middlemen Shawn Dubin and Steven Okert have all pitched well in general, in that each has an ERA of 2.05 or lower and a FIP of 2.77 or lower. However, Abreu’s three blown save opportunities — and his three negative WPA outings — have all come against the Mariners, in losses on April 7, April 9, and May 23; in his other 23 outings, he’s thrown 23.1 scoreless innings and has stranded all six inherited runners. Setup counterpart Bryan King carried a 1.52 ERA and 2.32 FIP into last week, but upon entering a tied game against the Rays on May 29 was torched for five hits and five runs in one-third of an inning, capped by a three-run Junior Caminero homer. Aside from those high-profile hiccups, it’s been lower-leverage relievers such as Kaleb Ort, the since-released Tayler Scott and those shuttling to and from Sugar Land who have inflated the unit’s ERA.

While the Astros have had sluggish starts in recent years — March/April records of 14-12 (2021), 11-10 (2022), 15-13 (2023), 10-19 (2024), and 16-14 (2025) — they’ve generally sorted themselves out in May while their closest rivals have come back to earth. Since the pandemic, the only time they’ve had a losing record at the 59-game mark was last year, when they overcame a 26-33 start to go 88-73 and win the AL West for the fourth straight year. This is their second-worst start in that span, yet they’re just an eyelash from first place, with nearly even odds of winning the division despite their woes and a slim margin for error. If you were waiting for Houston’s long run of contenders to end, this might not be your year.