Diamondbacks Decide to Find Out What Jeremy Hellickson Is

Over his first full season, back in 2011, Jeremy Hellickson ran a mediocre 115 FIP-. It wasn’t a particularly awful mark for a rookie, but that doesn’t suggest the kind of talent you build around. Yet, the same year, Hellickson also posted an ERA- of 76. By the numbers you don’t notice while watching, Hellickson was 15% worse than average. By the numbers you do notice while watching, Hellickson was 24% better than average. The ERA-/FIP- difference of 39 points was, to that point, the biggest full-season difference since 1996. Hellickson became a pitcher of intrigue.

And then he went and doubled down. As a sophomore, a 117 FIP-. As a sophomore, an 80 ERA-. That’s a difference of 37 points, which is basically tied with his first difference of 39 points, and it’s also one of the greatest single-season differences in recent history. One time, you might be comfortable writing off as a fluke. But twice in a row? That’s twice the sample size. Oh, the questions we all asked. Through his first 400-some innings, Hellickson looked like one of the fabled breakers of modern analytics.

Now it’s November 2014 and Hellickson is property of the Diamondbacks. Some things have changed.

For Tampa Bay, Hellickson was a pretty obvious trade candidate. He has two more years of team control, and he’s about to cost something like $4 million. That’s fine, for a good pitcher, but the Rays clearly lacked confidence that Hellickson would be good anymore. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have openly been in the market for rotation help, under new front-office leadership. Next year’s rotation could at some point have Patrick Corbin, Bronson Arroyo, and Archie Bradley, but they won’t be starting in Phoenix in April, so, there are openings. Hellickson isn’t far removed from being interesting, he’s not old, he comes with a potential injury excuse for under-performance, and he’ll cost just that $4 million or so.

Headed to Arizona: Hellickson, just. Headed to Tampa Bay, or, more realistically, certain Tampa Bay affiliates: Andrew Velazquez and Justin Williams. Velazquez is 20 and a shortstop. Williams is 19 and an outfielder. A couple months ago, Kiley wrote up the Diamondbacks’ system, and he slotted Velazquez eighth and Williams ninth. The sentences are more important than the rankings. So —

On Velazquez

Velazquez is small at 5’8/175 but the switch-hitter has the most usable power of the three shortstops in this group and has the best feel to hit as well. He has the tools to stick at short, stole a lot of bases but isn’t a huge runner (55 on the 20-80 scale, with excellent instincts) and is still learning the position, with some scouts saying he fits better at second base or in a utility role long-term.

On Williams

Williams was a 2nd rounder out of high school in 2013 with 60 raw power from the left side as a carrying tool and was among the youngest in his draft class, just recently turning 19. He has an average arm but doesn’t project as more than a fringy defender, so the bat has to carry him. Williams beat expectations in Low-A this year but needs to make adjustments to get to his power in games and scouts are concerned advanced breaking stuff will give him trouble at higher levels.

Interesting, both of them. Miles and miles away, both of them. As Dave Stewart put it:

“I didn’t really think about the shortstop situation, because [Velazquez is] so far away,” D-backs general manager Dave Stewart said. “He played low-A ball last year. He’s probably three, four years away, and Williams is probably four, five years away, and I looked at it more that way than the fact that I was trading from a position of strength.”

It’s pretty clear Tampa Bay got some real talent; it’s pretty clear both guys are projects, the odds stacked against them, and one can only wonder what the Rays might’ve been able to get for Hellickson a couple of years ago. Alas, that hypothetical didn’t happen, and reality did happen, the simplified results being displayed in the following handy little table:

Split	ERA-	FIP-	Difference
2010 – 2012	79	115	-36
2013 – 2014	133	113	20
Career	99	114	-15

Also, elbow surgery cost Hellickson more than half of this past season, after he neglected to inform team officials of some ongoing discomfort. That wasn’t a popular move, but, I suppose Hellickson isn’t the first pitcher to have kept an injury to himself. It’s not Tampa Bay’s problem anymore.

For a guy who’s been up and down, Hellickson’s FIP- has remained remarkably consistent. It hasn’t been higher than 117, and it hasn’t been lower than 112. It doesn’t seem like he’s on the verge of a strikeout or a groundballing breakthrough, so it seems like Hellickson’s success will be determined by his ability to beat his own peripherals. It’s something you usually bet against, but Hellickson built himself a strong case as an outlier in his first two full years. So what are we supposed to do with him?

Because we use it so commonly, let’s go back to 2002. We know that some guys naturally beat their peripherals, and some guys naturally under-perform them. Sometimes a guy is Johnny Cueto, and sometimes a guy is Ricky Nolasco. Let’s say that we can start to observe real differences around the 1000-inning mark, or thereabouts. Over the window, 127 pitchers have thrown at least 1000 innings. Here’s how their ERA-/FIP- differences are distributed.

The absolute greatest difference, in terms of ERA- being lower than FIP-: 15 points, belonging to Cueto and Chris Young. Then 12 points, belonging to Jered Weaver, Jarrod Washburn, and Jeremy Guthrie. At the other end, Nolasco (17) and Jeremy Bonderman (13). Coincidentally, it seems like things are pretty normally distributed. Anyway, that would seem to set a ceiling around a 15-point difference. At least, covering the last 13 years.

Hellickson’s a little north of 600 career innings, and his ERA-/FIP- gap is 15 points. That’s a match for our max, which means it would be unreasonable to expect Hellickson to get back to what he was doing in the first half of his big-league career. That would be just too extraordinary. You also have a regression-to-the-mean factor, and a pitched-in-front-of-the-Rays-defense factor. The last four years, the Rays have ranked first, first, fourth, and seventh in BABIP allowed. In Hellickson’s rookie 2011 season, the Rays were first by DRS and second by UZR. The next year, eighth and sixth. As Hellickson got worse results, the Rays also had a worse team defense behind him.

It seems pretty inarguable that Hellickson got at least some help from his defenders. That accounts for some of the ERA-/FIP- difference. In 2011, Hellickson also absolutely allowed weaker contact than average, with pop-ups all over the place, but then, Tony Blengino has identified Tim Hudson as one of the kings of generating weak contact, and his career ERA-/FIP- difference is seven points.

Take Hellickson. His observed career gap is 15 points, in favor of a lower ERA-. You have to add some league-average pitching, to account for regression. You also have to account for the Rays’ defense. Maybe his “true” gap is 10 points. Maybe it’s 7 or 8 points, or 5 points, or 0 points. But his true gap is presumably lower than the observed gap, and then you remember Hellickson’s FIP- consistency. Hellickson needs to beat his peripherals by a good amount to be even a league-average pitcher.

If Hellickson projects for his career-average 114 FIP-, then almost all the outcomes would have him as a fairly mediocre starter. That seems like the most reasonable guess, and while you can see why the Diamondbacks are willing to take a shot on his re-discovering his razor-thin margins, you should always bet against a guy being extreme. Especially if he’s more recently been extreme in the opposite direction. Johnny Cueto’s putting together a pretty exceptional kind of peak, but Jeremy Hellickson most likely isn’t as good as Johnny Cueto.

Weeks ago, David Laurila talked to Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey. Hellickson came up a few times, and you can see some hints of frustration in Hickey’s words. He likes Hellickson’s raw talent, but wishes he would stop nibbling, and acknowledges he has to make some adjustments. He didn’t make those adjustments in Tampa Bay, and while mediocre pitchers are an adjustment or two away from improving, mostly they don’t improve. Hellickson, at least, gets a fresh start.

It’s a pure benefit trade for Tampa Bay, because Hellickson was finished there, and they turned him into far younger talent. For Arizona, the hope is that Hellickson can turn in something like an average ERA for just a few million dollars. There’s value there, for one or two years as other arms get healthy or develop, but unless Hellickson is a very rare breed, he’s not going to stabilize anything. Odds are, Arizona won’t miss the prospects they dealt. Odds are, after he’s gone, Arizona won’t miss Jeremy Hellickson.