Diamondbacks Pay for Ace, Get Shelby Miller
Just yesterday, we thought the Wade Miley trade might’ve been lopsided. And, you know, maybe. But now we’re on another level. Forget the Wade Miley trade. Now we have the Shelby Miller trade. Kudos to the Diamondbacks — they got Miller, who they wanted. They also got Gabe Speier, who is a player. But Miller didn’t come for free. In exchange, the Braves got Ender Inciarte. Also, the Braves got Dansby Swanson. Also, the Braves got Aaron Blair. Inciarte being a quality, cost-controlled outfielder. Swanson being last year’s first overall pick. Blair being possibly or probably a top-100 starter prospect who’s close to the majors. Don’t get me wrong, Miller is plenty interesting. He ought to help Arizona. Yet the trade looks like a clear, obvious mistake.
You always want to let the first impression settle. You always want to think these things through, to try to make sense from both sides if you can. Sometimes, though, you remain feeling how you initially felt. There’s a parallel you can draw here — the last time I felt like this about a trade, the Royals picked up James Shields. At this point, the Royals don’t regret what they did. There was a way for that to work out for them, just as there’s a way for this to work out for Arizona. But the Shields trade went almost as well for Kansas City as possible. And there’s no Wade Davis in this move. Inciarte might play the part of Wil Myers. Swanson might play the part of Wil Myers. There are two options, with Blair more or less playing the part of Jake Odorizzi. This could easily be a bigger haul, for very probably a lesser return. Occasionally there are bad trades. This is among the worst of them.
The Diamondbacks are trying to win. They made that statement when they signed Zack Greinke, and there’s no denying their quality core talent. Miller adds to that talent, and there’s the skeleton of a contender here. The Diamondbacks could really be building something. If they get to the playoffs a few times, or if they win it all, with Miller coming up big in October, this is going to look great. Or at least, it’ll look worth it. Maybe they sneak up on the Dodgers in the season ahead. You don’t have to be awesome to win the World Series — you just need to be good enough. Maybe they’re there.
And I actually like Miller. I wrote about him the other day as a player with real 2016 upside, on account of having expanded his repertoire rather significantly in 2015. I think Miller has it in him to reach a higher level, and the Diamondbacks clearly agree. He has the pitches, and he has another three years of team control. That rotation in Arizona is rather big on raw tools.
But, you know, Miller’s career xFIP is worse than the league average. His regular career FIP is worse than the league average. Last year, his ERA looked good because of home-run suppression. He’s not a proven No. 1, nor is he a proven No. 2. He’s a No. 3 with potential and a lot of innings of not quite tapping into it. He could and should be useful for Arizona, but there’s another thing — Inciarte was going to be useful for Arizona. Inciarte projected as a pretty good starter in the outfield, and by taking him out, it’s not clear the Diamondbacks just improved. Any rotation upgrade is at least partially countered by an outfield downgrade, and then you get to Swanson and Blair, on top of the rest.
Not to go there just yet. About Miller having three more years of control: Inciarte has five more years of control. He’s all contact and defense first, so maybe he’d be relatively underpaid through arbitration, but Inciarte has already been good. He’s probably a slightly below-average hitter, but he’s an outstanding defender, and there are teams who see him as an elite-level center-field glove. He’s sort of like an outfield version of Andrelton Simmons, with more bat and less glove. A little like Juan Lagares, without the elbow injury. Inciarte might well be a more valuable asset than Miller. The Diamondbacks can try to replace him with Yasmany Tomas, but then last year Tomas was a nightmare.
All that, and little has been said about the prospects. These aren’t just interesting prospects. These are major prospects, including literally last year’s first player drafted. Say what you will about how Swanson is unproven — you’re not wrong — but he was just drafted before everyone else, and MLB.com rated him as baseball’s No. 10 prospect. That’s one slot in front of Trea Turner, and two slots in front of Orlando Arcia. The most valuable prospects in the game are high-ranking position players, and though Swanson could absolutely bust, he’s the sort of guy you include as the centerpiece for an ace. And there was Blair, too.
Some people like Blair more than others. MLB.com put him at No. 61 overall. That’s one slot in front of Andrew Benintendi. Blair might well not be that good, as he had a statistically unimpressive 2015. Maybe he deserves to be at the bottom of the top 100, or maybe he deserves to be left just off of it. But he’s 23, with stuff that should work, and he’s already started a dozen times in Triple-A. Blair isn’t far away, with an improvement or two, so he shouldn’t be forgotten. He throws more strikes than Archie Bradley does. Blair is a very solid third piece.
I don’t need to go into math-y prospect-valuation stuff. Let’s just look at this for what it is. The Diamondbacks are getting three years of a talented pitcher with some room for growth. They’re giving up five years of a pretty good center fielder, and they’re including one of the best position-player prospects, and a legitimately good starting-pitcher prospect. Miller for Inciarte, straight up, might’ve favored the Braves. They got two high-talent prospects, too. No matter how you felt before about the Braves’ rebuild, it just took three steps forward, with the system in phenomenal shape.
It’s tempting to make fun of the Diamondbacks front office. It’s tempting to point to this, and to the Touki Toussaint trade, as evidence that they just don’t know how to properly evaluate prospects. And I can’t dismiss that. I want to, because it doesn’t make sense that there would be a real front office in that position, but this is where we are. They haven’t earned any benefit of the doubt. You can expect that Dave Stewart’s phone is blowing up, as other teams want to get in on this action. They won’t be happy about missing out on Swanson and Blair.
It’s hard to figure how talks even got to this point. If this is what Arizona agreed to, what didn’t Arizona agree to, earlier in negotiations? You wonder if this is something like the sort of package they offered to the Marlins for Jose Fernandez. The Marlins said no, but once the players were on the table, perhaps Arizona just got comfortable with the idea of those players being moved, so they might’ve taken the same package and just shifted focus to the Braves. It’s easier to trade players you’ve already mentally thought about trading, and if they got psychologically locked in on Shelby Miller, maybe they didn’t want to have to settle for an alternative. So then it’s Miller or bust, and the Braves took advantage.
That’s speculation. What isn’t speculation is the trade that happened. We know what took place, and we have a pretty damn good idea it’s extremely lopsided. One of the more lopsided trades in recent history. Of course, there are ways for the Diamondbacks to come away looking good. Miller could blossom, the other players could bust, and the Diamondbacks could streak into the playoffs. This isn’t all downside — such moves don’t exist. But there seems to be a lack of good understanding of player valuation here, and that makes for an awful dangerous front office. It’s a confident front office, but a dangerous front office, and though some might see the Diamondbacks as greatly solidified for 2016, they could be this year’s Padres. A busy offseason drew the Padres considerable hype, but they mortgaged a lot of the future in building what remained a flawed team, and the experiment didn’t work out. Odds will be against the Diamondbacks experiment working out. This year, and the years after that. In many ways, despite the talent that’s arrived, the outlook grows increasingly dim.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Shelby Miller had a really good first half of last season. He looks to be a number three starter. This deal is insanely in favor of the Braves and it isn’t even close. It is like the DBacks put this deal together for Gray or Fernandez, and were told no so they just offered it for Miller. He’s not even the same species as those other pitchers.
It will be fun watching the genius Freidman spend 300M and horde his prospects like Fabrege Eggs and still finish 2nd to Dave Stewart and the Dbacks. It’s funny the Fangraphs reaction to this trade sounds a lot like after everyone piled on the idiot Dayton Moore after the James Shields trade. Moore hoisted the World Series trophy way before Friedman or Beane. Now we’ll watch Stewart before those two as well.
Let’s not plumb the depths of outcome bias too much. The Shields trade was justifiably panned – the only thing that has given it a shred of credibility is the completely unforeseeable string of Myers injuries, and the fact that a relative throw in (Davis) turned out well.
Huh? Some people (like me) noted at the time that Myers had worrisome contact issues in the high minors and that Wade Davis was already a valuable reliever. The part I criticized for the Royals was including Odorizzi.
Those sound more like quibbles, not like you anticipated Wade Davis’s transformation into a nearly superhuman reliever. And unless Will Myers’ contact issues somehow precipitated his wrist injury, these consequences were not anticipated by anybody.
Actually, there were people who anticipated those outcomes (or at least something comparable to them); the Royal’s front office.
What this very website noted in article last year (written by I believe Dave Cameron) is that what people who panned the Myers-Shields swap initially (including himself) had failed to consider was how high the potential payoff for the Royal’s was (i.e. everyone simply looked at the risk but not the potential reward).
Yes, on paper it was more likely that the Rays would get the better end of that deal based on what the public knew at the time; but that fact, in and of itself, is irrelevant. If the best case scenario is a previously moribund franchise winning back to back pennants and a WS, then it completely justifiable for the Royals to make that trade even if they would only be expected to “win” the trade 20% of the time. (And that is not counting the fact that the Royals knew much more about Will Myers than any of us did).
That said, I think the Braves made a great decision here as the risk the Diamondbacks are taking looks considerably higher than the Royals.
Oh the outcome bias police come around. My analysis was spot on- it was just wrong because of unforseable, unknowable factors and just random bad luck. Puhhhlease…..
Lets just look at this from one side- Dave Stewart’s. He is the GM and only guaranteed that for a few years- he has a roster that he views as able to win now and most likely has expectations from ownership to do that. He just signed the best arm available as a free agent, has a team that is solid in hitting, and needs to improve his rotation. As far as player values, Inciarte is the only net negative from Dave’s perspective. He was the 4th outfielder, glove first type & the other two have essentially zero value to Dave except for what he can extract from other teams. The prospect bust rate is what ? Greater than 50% – even for number one picks. I imagine Dave shopped this around, and didnt get interest from one of the better arms (Carrasco, Fernandez, Etc) which seems likely given that Cleveland is in win- now mode and this doesnt help that end, and the marlins are on crack for what they want. So… In 5 years this may look like a lopsided trade for the Braves, but Dave doesnt care- because he may not be there in 5 years. If he wins with this team (like that bumbling moron Dayton Moore) will anyone care?
So continue to chery pick your outcomes. I told you so when right and “outcome bias” when wrong. Secure in your perfect analysis of very uncertain topics.
Laughable blather. I won, the haters lost. Maybe I just know more about baseball than you do, since I’m…you know…a GM?
“Yes, on paper it was more likely that the Rays would get the better end of that deal based on what the public knew at the time; but that fact, in and of itself, is irrelevant”
That is in fact totally relevant, and the whole point of my initial reply. It’s simply not reasonable to pat yourself on the back for making a decision that, more likely than not, is a poor one, just because the stars aligned and it worked out.
Also, you reference the World Series several times, despite the fact that the central piece of the trade for the Royals – Shields – (1) generally stank during their postseason run and (2) wasn’t even on the team that eventually won the championship. If we’re going to talk about outcomes, why include only the positive ones?
Not to mention Myers and Odorizzi will still be under team control for several more years, so neither is the book closed on either of their ceilings nor do we even have the full tally of how much this trade really cost the Royals. Myers is only 24 years old and under control until something like 2019 – he alone has plenty of time left to affect the value of this trade.
Now we’re re-writing the Shields portion??? LOL. dude had 7 WAR as a starter and logged 450 IP. They don’t even sniff the WS last year without him. Who cares what he did in the playoffs, those games are littered with #1 and #2 starters getting lit. (David Price, Clayton Kershaw?)
Anyway this is stupid. Deal was done for a 72-win Royal team. The 3 years since: 92 average wins, most in AL. And two pennants. It’s over, you lost.
That is in fact totally relevant, and the whole point of my initial reply. It’s simply not reasonable to pat yourself on the back for making a decision that, more likely than not, is a poor one, just because the stars aligned and it worked out.
Yes, it is.
It’s just like gambling. Given the proper odds it is completely reasonable to place a bet on an outcome that is unlikely to occur. In other words, if someone is offering you 100/1 odds for an event that you think is more likely 75/1, then it is totally justifiable to place a bet even though you are more likely than not going to lose.
(If you read The Signal and the Noise Nate Silver devotes an entire chapter to this very concept).
Also, you reference the World Series several times, despite the fact that the central piece of the trade for the Royals – Shields – (1) generally stank during their postseason run and (2) wasn’t even on the team that eventually won the championship. If we’re going to talk about outcomes, why include only the positive ones?
Well since the the Royals would not have made the playoffs without Shields in 2014 I’m not sure what your point is.
And Shields was not the only piece of that trade, Wade Davis brought value as well and the Royals would not have won the WS without him.
Not to mention Myers and Odorizzi will still be under team control for several more years, so neither is the book closed on either of their ceilings nor do we even have the full tally of how much this trade really cost the Royals. Myers is only 24 years old and under control until something like 2019 – he alone has plenty of time left to affect the value of this trade.
From the Royals perspective is does not matter how well Myers or Odorizzi perform for the rest of their time under team control. The value the Royals have derived from back to back pennants (which would not have happened without the trade) vastly exceeds whatever surplus value Myers and Odorizzi could ever provide.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/where-i-was-wrong-about-the-royals/
This is the article I was referencing and explains my point pretty well, though keep in mind that it is over a year old and if Cameron were to revisit I think he might be even more favorable to the Royals position.
Listen, if you want to the think the Royals overpaid, fine, a lot of people would agree with you. But given the substantial upside, it was at most a mild overpay and not something deserving of the vitriol the move was originally met with.
The discussion is going sideways, folks. Whether KC was destined to win the Shields trade or not is irrelevant. Whether Arizona is likely to win this trade is irrelevant.
The relevant question is around the market value, and how out of touch Dave Stewart is with what prospects are worth. As the title of this post suggests he just offered ace prices for a pitcher who is not currently an ace. Even if Arizona sees something in Miller that no one else does and they think they can turn him into an ace, AND even if they know something about Inciarte/Swanson/Blair that no one else does, they should have squeezed more out of Atlanta. Those three prospects should return more value than just Miller and Speier.
Unless they win the world series with Miller on the roster, it’s pretty hard not to suggest that Arizona should have got more for that haul than they did.
The first problem with this thinking is that Shields was a superior pitcher to Miller at the time of the trade, and that even if Swanson / Blair roughly equate to Myers / Odorizzi in terms of value, Inciarte makes this deal a laugher.
The other problem is that the DBacks seem to simply not value their own assets enough. Toussaint, Swanson, and Blair turned into not nearly as much as they might have had the DBacks valued them more highly.
yes i am one of the six tampa bay fans but let me respond to your comments….first no james shields is not better than shelby miller now or back then. Second will Myers was a no. 1 draft pick like dansbury swanson. Third Jake Odorizzi is better than Blair. I do remember all the hate Drayton Moore got when he made the shields/myers trade. It was so bad I felt sorry for poor old Drayton and started rooting for the royals. People should go back and read some of those comments, Drayton was completely skewered and vilified. I am so glad they won the world series. There is one problem with the deal, there is no other player (or wade davis equivalent) who saved Drayton’s buns in this deal.
A couple of corrections/arguments. First, Wil Myers was a third round draft pick, not a first, let alone a #1 overall. He was however a higher rated prospect at the time of his trade than is Swansby. Second, it is almost impossible to argue Miller is a better pitcher than Shields was. In his last 3 years with the Rays, Shields never Ked less than 20% of opposing batters, and never walked more than 7%. In his 3 seasons in the MLB, Miller has struck out more than 20% of batters once and has never had a walk percentage below 7%. Shields also averaged over 220 IP his final three seasons with the Rays; Miller has pitched over 200 IP once.
I did like Odorizzi as a prospect better than Blair, so agreed on that point.
It’ll be interesting to see if 3 season of Shelby is more valuable than 2 seasons of Shields. I’m going to say “yes,” but it could be close.
But yeah, Myers turning into a complete bust was just fortuitous for the Royals. They could have been even better if Myers were around and health for them, compared to paying $11 million for Rios to be nearly worthless.
Billy Beane has one of the two smallest markets, Friedman has the highest payroll, Beane is not a messiah and even I can say that as an A’s fan, but what Beane does with our limited payroll compared to what some bigger markets do is actually quite insane, yes the Royals won and great but the A’s are still a bigger brand than the Royals, and the A’s won a few WS as Kansas City.
So the D-Backs should be winning the Series soon. Which GM’s have caught more flack than Dayton Moore and Brian Sabean?
Oh, and go back and read the lovefests with Jack Z after his first offseason. He figured out “market inefficiencies”, blah blah blah, etc…
Keep thinking you know everything, these guys are paid professionals, this is what they do.
“A’s are a bigger brand”
Is that what you’ve been reduced to? Arguing about “brands”? That’s just pathetic.
Kevin Towers was hated by the stat-minded community, and he got his ass fired. You can’t just count the ones that support your thesis.
Sorry, forgot to add: Ruben Amaro, Jr. Hated by statheads, led his team further and further into the wilderness, got fired.
Getting back to sean o’neils comments. I do like your response but let us not forget that even though will myers was a 3rd round pick he was the baseball america minor league player of the year. If you take a look at who won that award over the last 30+ years (trout, gordon, jetter, manny ramirez, jose canseco, dwight gooden, andruw jones, frank thomas, etc. etc.) hell yes will myers was a better prospect than dansbury swanson, so again this looks very similiar to the shields/myers trade except for one thing …..no wade davis equivalent
Even if you can’t get Fernandez, if you shop this package of players to 28 other teams you will almost certainly get more back than Shelby Miller.
Good luck to Arizona, but man oh man does that this look a bad trade right now.
I myself thought that this would be a credible offer for Fernandez, until I saw the news that the Marlins are asking for Urias, Seager and Pederson.
Which makes me think that there is actually no such thing a as a credible offer for Fernandez.
Report this morning is that Miami would have taken “Corbin, Swanson, Inciarte, Blair, and infielder Brandon Drury”.
Did it say Miami would’ve accepted that flat out? I could see how Arizona (who obviously is trying to be an earnest contender) would fancy retaining Patrick Corbin to slot in behind Zack Greinke & now Shelby Miller though. I can definitely see why they’d be resistant to give him up.
I agree that the dbacks gave up ALOT. But, with the salaries Shark, JA Happ and company are getting, its simply not easy to aquire controllable SP right now. Goldy has had MVP type seasons go by the wayside in non-contending seasons. The time has to be now. Their premium players are in their prime right now, and everyone agrees they needed another 2/3 starter type. Was Fernandez or Carrasco feasible? Not unless you want to offer Pollack. FWIW….yes I live in the desert. But the “Dbags” are back to the Dbacks!!
Couldn’t agree more.
As a White Sox fan, I’d have been fine with Rick Hahn trading Quintana for the haul the Braves got.
This is insane. When I saw the news I shouted “WHAT” out loud.
Everyone should be trading the Diamondbacks everything.
Also, now I want to see Dave Stewart and AJ Preller trade stuff to each other.
As a Braves fan, to wake up to this is really something awesome.
And admit it, there’s no better home for a guy named Dansby Swanson than Georgia.
Don’t forget his first initial.
J. Dansby Swanson
Funny enough Dansby Swanson is a Georgia native originally.
He’s from Marietta
They can’t. The Braves have all their prospects now.
Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, and a center fielder who is averaging about three WAR per 500 PA and has five years of control left…for a guy with a 4.08 career xFIP.
LOL.
Damn son, respect for pounding out 1500 coherent words on this in like 3 hours, after already doing another one of these today.
Go take a nap or something.
Sullivan has a USB hookup directly into his head. He just thinks things and they post straight to Fangraphs. It’s much less work than you imagine.
Couldn’t resist:
http://imgur.com/gallery/7lZwLKc
They probably could have got Carrasco with this.
Corrasco is nearly 4 years older than Miller, no?
Older but much, much better.
As an Indians fan, I would have done it for Salazar in a heartbeat. Carrasco would have taken Pollack, and most Indians fan agree on that. Carrasco is really good.
lol who cares about pollack, this package as a whole is huge, carrasco for this is totally fine, hell sale for this would have been fine.
This is what strikes me as bizarre. No way you trade Sale for this. Sale is great. The pieces headed to Atlanta are a gigantic pile of mediocrity. A mountain of mediocrity does not equal greatness no matter how huge. A defensive OF with platoon issues, a back end SP prospect and a nice SS prospect do not equal one of the three or four best left handed SP in all of baseball. The WAR and surplus value calculations are simply not persuasive. Greatness, true greatness, is exceedingly rare. “Top” prospects and defensive minded OF’s are a dime a dozen. These kind of statements do not compute.
Probably not. The Indians are in win now mode, and while Inciarte helps fill a gap in center, the other two do nothing. It would be a net negative for Cleveland even if the prospects pan out. Pollock is really the only thing that would Carrasco.
I imagine Stewart telling Hart “if you give me Miller and Speier I’ll give you Inciarte and Blair” and right before Hart quickly accepts, Stewart adds “and the #1 pick in last year’s draft” and Hart shakes his hand while he pees just a little.
Seriously, if the DBacks offered Swanson and Inciarte for Miller, or Inciarte and Blair, do the Braves say no to that?
Trade rule #1: if your trade partner would accept the same trade without one of the pieces you are currently offering, don’t offer that piece.
This package should be the basis of a Jose Fernandez trade.
Not a Shelby Miller trade.
You really think that a proven pitcher who will quite possibly be a perennial Cy Young candidate is worth a good, but not all-star-caliber outfielder, a pitching prospect with at most #3 starter potential, and a single-A shortstop with a high floor but low ceiling?
I’d like to point out that he said “basis of a Jose Fernandez trade.” Also, while it’s fun to describe players negatively to lessen their worth, it’s also enjoyable to do so positively. Like saying is worth a young, cost controlled, centerfielder with an exciting glove and a decent bat, a major league ready starter with middle of the rotation potential, and (I can’t stress this enough) last year’s NUMBER 1 draft pick.
AND someone they gave 6.5 million dollars signing bonus to.
You are either a diehard Braves fan or a member of the Miller family. There is no alternative universe where Miller is the player you have described. ANY of the 3 alone was pretty close to value for Miller, but the Braves got all 3. If Miller was worth 1, those three players are probably worth 2.5 to 3.5 depending on your viewpoint. It was reported that the GM’s had lunch – we should seriously be asking whether Dave Stewart was drugged at this lunch, because it is very difficult to believe there is anyone who gets paid to do this that is THIS INCREDIBLY STUPID. If this was Japan he’d have to kill himself right now.
I’m pretty sure he was referring to Fernandez when he said “a proven pitcher who will quite possibly be a perennial Cy Young candidate”.
He’s talking about Fernandez not Miller
“If this was Japan he’d have to kill himself right now.”
I giggled at this.
“I giggled at this.”
Yeah, racism is so funny!
(sarcasm)
is said pitcher not even 15 starts off of tommy john? and lol at calling swanson low ceiling. sure he’s probably not perennial MVP. but up the middle with pop and steady D is certainly all star caliber.
I like how you posted something you on other baseball websites on this site as if no one’s heard it before.
I’d like to thank Arizona for personally restocking the Braves farm.
Okay, I’ve done everything you’ve asked – now please burn the pictures.
It’s a good thing MLB’s new domestic policy is protecting the people it was meant to protect–general managers and coaches from whoever is threatening them in any way.
I almost busted a gut reading this.
And may I add that the comments on this article are among the best ever?
Jayson Heyward – the gift that keeps on giving.
For one season of Jason Heyward:
One All-Star year of Shelby Miller
Tyrell Jenkins
Four years of Ender Inciarte
The No. 1 pick of the 2015 Draft
A top-100 prospect in Aaron Blair
That is amazing accuracy; Google has really improved that translation algorithm.
For Jason Heyward season:
A year OL-star Shelby Miller
TIRELLI Jenkins
Four years Ender Inciarte
No. 1 draft pick in 2015
Aaron Blair Top 100 views
That number 1 draft pick also comes without the cost of the $6.5M signing bonus.
The thought exercise I like to go through with these trades is “If you only knew the players on one side of the trade, what type of player would you guess that team is getting back”.
That’s why the Kimbrel trade is an overpay in my books, because I would’ve guessed that package would bring back a #2 or #2/#3 pitcher, not a really high priced reliever, and it’s why this trade is even more of a problem. Does anyone think that Oakland wouldn’t have taken the Arizona players for Sonny Gray? Or that package wouldn’t have gotten the conversation started with the Mets and one of their pitchers? Instead they got a guy who wasn’t striking people out, was relying on good batted ball results, and is now moving to a hitters environment…that’s betting a lot of talent on speculative upside.
Billy Beane traded Simmons for Samardzija, so who knows, but these three are definitely not enough for Sonny Gray. They’re three solid pieces but no great ones.
A ~3 WAR OFer and two Top 50 prospects is a pretty significant package.
He’s only a ~3 WAR outfielder if you believe that defensive WAR accurately measures defensive value, which major league teams have shown again and again that they do not. Blair probably isn’t a top-50 prospect and while Swanson did go 1-1, that was in what is widely considered one of if not the worst draft in major league history.
Keith Law has Swanson at 22 and Blair at 31 in his Top 100.
Ender can play, he’s young enough his talent is guaranteed until his speed slumps and his BAPIP goes down, and then his defence regresses). But Shelby at a minute could decide to become a 8 inning horse rather than a 6 inning liability. I really feel like Miller was a solid idea to grab.
jdbolick, so major league teams dont value defensive war but heyward will get at least an 8 year deal? yeah i think your notion it counter intuitive.
Jdbolick, Inciarte passes the eye test as a very good outfielder in center or right. You can’t just say “the metrics are wrong” unless there is some clear disconnect between the numbers and how he looks.
Inciarte has a low ceiling as a contact hitter with little power, but his floor for at least the time the braves have him is probably as a two win outfielder, even if you think his defense is only good instead of excellent.
One of whom is a top 10 prospect.
The idea that this is just a solid package is divorced from reality, especially for Shelby Miller.
That’s significantly too high on Blair. I like Blair but his upside is limited.
I am not saying that he isn’t a good defensive outfielder. I am saying that he is a good defensive outfielder, but that teams do not value his defensive contributions at anything remotely close to what defensive WAR says they are. That’s why great defenders keep getting signed or traded for much less than their value according to WAR.
*facepalm* It’s a fantastic return for Shelby Miller. Sonny Gray is much more valuable than Shelby Miller.
I think the Mets would’ve parted with Matz or maybe even Harvey for this package, and for me Matz is the higher upside pitcher in relation to Miller.
pretty sure they would have gave up thor for this package, albeit maybe legares would go back to AZ and AZ adds a small piece.
Why would the mets trade either for this package? They are in win now mode and this addresses none of their needs.
Exactly. It’s easy to look at value in a vacuum and make statements, but this trade only works if you’re looking for a good pitcher on a non-contender. The Mets aren’t trading one of their core pitchers for a package headlined by someone who was in A-ball last year, even if the value is there. And the same goes for any contender with a young, excellent pitcher.
“Or that package wouldn’t have gotten the conversation started with the Mets and one of their pitchers?”
I just posted on a Mets forum about Inciarte— I wasn’t thinking about getting two premium prospects back as well, so was more in the territory of Niese plus a minor piece [and/or cash to balance the deal], but for this package, I don’t hang up right away for any of Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard or Matz…
If Jeff Sullivan, king of trying to see it from the other guy’s perspective, thinks this is a horribly lopsided trade, then I think I’m inclined to agree with the man.
Are Braves fans still up in arms about the Simmons trade now?
Why shouldn’t they be? One great trade doesn’t stop the other one from being stupid.
Braves fans should be up in arms about the Olivera trade at least. Wonder what the Dbacks would have given up for Alex Wood too?
This. Can’t understand a rebuilding team grabbing an over-30 singles/doubles hitter with an eight figure contract to be one of their corner outfielders.
I understand where you’re coming from, but we shouldn’t assume that Olivera is only a “singles/doubles hitter” based on one minor league season. That being said, I didn’t like that trade.
Why is Tomas a nightmare? Little harsh? How about Chapman being a nightmare? “Allegedly” strangled his girlfriend after firing 8 shots in the air? Give the rookie a break? He batted over .300 for most of the year. Good contact hitter. Maybe his power will come this year? Heard of culture shock? Learning a new language? Nice biased article. Dbacks get Miller. A proven commodity. Give up Swanson? Never played before in the bigs. Probably won’t make it for another 3 years? Blair? Really? How many innings has he pitched in the big leagues? Inciarte? Go ahead. Get excited about that. Lol. Toussaint. How is that working out lol. How did Upton work out. Ahh. All you Braves fans saw how he started each year hot and cookled off like an iceberg. Nice. How about that fielding lol. Not saying Dbacks are good at prospect evaluation. We have the best first baseman in the majors though in the draft. All star center fielder. Two very good third baseman. Corbin? Ok. Finally the owner is spending money on players and everyone is upset.
This has to be some kind of record for most question marks in one post.
Why nightmare Thomas? A little harsh? How will it be night Chapman? “Allegedly” strangled ispalivlji 8 photos to your girlfriend in the air. Leave to rest a rookie? There is a better ball. for nearly 300 years. Good contact killer. Perhaps, his power will come this year? I heard about culture shock? Learning a new language? Through the beautiful article. Dbacks Miller. A proven product. After she fell Swanson? Ever played is incredible. Mjesi you can add 3 years? Blair? Really? How often is that he made the big leagues? Inciarte. Continue. Get excited about it. You can quote me on that. Toussaint. How that will work out d. how Upton turned out. Ahh. All Varriors fans to see what it was all warm and cookled as the iceberg. Nice to meet you. How to transport D. I didn’t speak to the Dbacks is a good response from potential customers. We have the best first Baseman in the “major”, though the project. All the main centres. Two very good baseman Tuesday. Corbin? All right. Finally, the owner has to pay to play and they’re all confused.
To be fair, ispalivlji WAS asking for it…
I like how “lol” somehow turned into “You can quote me on that.”
This is probably my favorite one yet.
“How to transport D. I didn’t speak to the Dbacks is a good response from potential customers.”
That worked out incredible.
“Finally, the owner has to pay to play and they’re all confused.”
That actually does make way more sense than the original.
Every player in history had, at some point “not played in the bigs.” That’s not much of an argument.
What? Huh? Duh? Hmm? Puh? Shuh? Xander Bogaerts for Will Venable? No? That’s crazy? Why are you so crazy? Heard of electric shock? Learning your primary language? Nice biased message. Cavs get Lebron. A proven king. Probably won’t make it another 3 years? Wednesday comes before next Friday? Melvin Upton? Really? How many innings has Bono played the guitar? Heard of Ross Gload? Proven person. Iceberg lettuce.
Every Ross Gload reference gets a thumbs-up from me.
Looking forward to a Ross Gload Lettuce Feast!
:o(.
What? Huh? Duh? Hmm? Puh? Shuh? Xander Bogaerts for Will Venable? No? That’s crazy? Why are you so crazy? Heard of electric shock? Learning your primary language? Nice biased message. Cavs get Lebron. A proven king. Probably won’t make it another 3 years? Wednesday comes before next Friday? Melvin Upton? Really? How many innings has Bono played the guitar? Heard of Ross Gload? Proven person. Iceberg lettuce.
I’ve not laughed at a comment quite as heartily as “Ross Gload? Proven person. Iceberg lettuce.” in a loooooong time. Well done sir.
You forgot to include, “Inciarte, how many innings has he pitched in the big leagues? None? This is a steal for the D-backs!”
Okay, let me first state I think this is a bad, bad deal for the Diamondbacks.
That said, I do wonder if Inciarte’s value is sort of at a peak He doesn’t hit that well away from Arizona, he’s struggled against lefties. Old scouting reports didn’t suggest an elite defensive CF, to the best of my recollection.
I get why the Diamondbacks made this move, and I can see a lens of thinking where Swanson, while 1/1, doesn’t have the elite ceiling of some recent top shortstops, Blair is more of an end of the rotation arm, and Inciarte is at peak value at a position of some moderate depth for them, and as such, they make the move, particularly since the pitching trade market was costlier than expected. I also do not believe that Inciarte would’ve landed a SP like Miller, despite having numbers suggesting that he was more valuable, and the Diamondbacks needed to upgrade their rotation.
After saying all that, this still feels like a bad, bad move for them. Waiting out the SP market (still think there will be some arms standing around longer than expected and coming in for a less than expected cost), trying to trade for some gambles/young arms (the Cubs might shop Jason Hammel), going bargain bin hunting – all that made more sense, giving them time to get a better gauge of what they have by midseason.
Agree on all points. I think the Braves probably do this for any two of Inciarte, Swanson, Blair. Maybe Inciarte and Blair isn’t quite enough because neither have a ton of upside, so maybe they require a high risk prospect from the low minors as well. Adding Swanson changes it from a good deal for the braves (and I could even call it pretty fair fire both sides because I don’t like Blair at all) to a huge one for them.
Teams keep showing us that they do not value defense at anything close to the level suggested by defensive WAR.
Even with very liberal regression in defensive value and major questioning of the prospects, the deal still only switches from catastrophically horrible to just regular bad.
I’m think it’s overstating matters to say that’s true at every position, but that does seem to be the case for a particular type of OF. Specifically, great fielding / limited bat CF’s apparently aren’t nearly as high valued as WAR would suggest.
Guys like Leonys Martin, Craig Gentry, and Peter Bourjos all come to mind as players who teams seem to value a lot less than WAR based on publicly-available defensive stats suggests they should. Inciarte fits that mold.
I think you make a good point. You named 3 guys there. Throw in Lagares, Bradley, pre-power Parra, Blanco, Pillar, etc. I think teams think it’s easier to develop elite CF gloves considering the batting threshold can be so low. And in a lot of these cases the bat doesn’t really develop. We can pretty much safely assume their defense will suffer as they age. If you can’t assume the bat will compensate it makes projection very difficult.
That being said it doesn’t really apply to this deal. 2 top 100 prospects were traded. 1 of them is considered top 10ish. The upside there, alone, should be enough to get Miller. Idc what the defensive divide is within MLB front offices, Inciarte is solid enough to make this kind of laughable.
Arizona must love Brito.
I also love Brito. But I don’t get them from Chipotle anymore, on account of they’re making everyone sick 🙁
Not sure your 3 example are any good. Both Gentry and Bourjos were bad fielders in 2015 and accumulated negative WAR. Weak bat + bad fielding = no team.
Martin’s bat was atrocious in 2015 and while the Rangers were trying to get him back on track, they found DeShields. In the playoffs, Martin refused an assignment to Arizona to workout in case needed and the writing was on the wall that he would need to go. Kudos to the Rangers for adding bullpen depth in the return.
Seems like way too much noise sometimes. Peter Bourjos is suddenly a bad fielder?
you are right, why are teams lining up for they heyward guy!
Because Heward’s bat is decisively better than inciartes or any of the other players mentioned. And he is a RF. Other than that your analysis is spot on.
i was replying to the initial comment not the guy posting defensive only guys. hes still not a lineup changing bat, yes hes better than inciarte but hes a corner OF and therefore should have a better bat. i mean hes what 15% better with the bat, and will sign a contract that will pay him a total over 150 million dollars more than the braves will have to pay inciarte. is he worth the health risk and extra money locking him up that long is worth? no but some team will do it, hence valuing defense.
Read this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/trying-to-put-a-value-on-jason-heyward-in-free-agency/
If you buy Heyward’s defensive WAR then he should end up getting a contract for over $300 million. He won’t because teams do not agree with the value assessment of defensive WAR.
This deal is about the D-Backs wanting to win within the next couple of seasons. In the long run, if Blair and Swanson both pan out well, then maybe this was a steal for the Braves. However, neither would have been likely to contribute much over the next two years so from the D-Backs’ point of view, this is about replacing Inciarte with Miller for the next couple years. Blair and Swanson are chips cashed in to make the deal work. I’d be willing to bet the front office feels like it’s possible that Tomas and Socrates Brito can provide nearly the same value as Inciarte. Maybe they don’t, but is it INSANE to consider it feasible, especially if Tomas’s bat becomes closer to what was expected last year? On the other hand, Miller is likely displacing someone worth close to replacement level. So, given that Inciarte’s value could be somewhat replaced, but Miller’s likely couldn’t, I think it’s reasonable to think about the trade beyond the simple context of Miller having similar value to Inciarte and therefore the D-Backs being fleeced.
Also, I think people here are overestimating the value major league front offices attach to prospects. If Arizona could have gotten Fernandez with this package, they certainly would have done so. Atlanta was asking for Pollock for Miller, so at the very least Arizona came away with a better deal than that.
The “win now” value of this deal depends on who replaces Inciarte in the OF. Both he and Miller are coming off of nearly identical WAR numbers in ’15 and are projected for nearly identical numbers in ’16. Miller’s projection, though almost certainly low doesn’t mark him as much of an improvement over the guy(s) he’s replacing in Arizona’s rotation. If they end up with a ~1 WAR performance in Inciarte’s spot then they probably don’t even get a short-term improvement out of this deal and almost certainly will end up looking bad in the long-term.
Inciarte’s bat provides little value, though, so his defensive numbers could just as easily fluctuate to the point that he’s worth ~1 WAR too. I’d view Miller’s value, even if not as high as last year, as a much surer thing than Ender’s. Moreover, given the miserable rotation last year, Miller is probably replacing someone worth less than or equal to 0 WAR. That makes it fairly easy for his marginal value to outweigh Inciarte’s.
According to Steamer, Miller will be replacing ~1.7 WAR over ~200 IP. He’s only projected for like 1.6 WAR, though that’s probably low. I think he’ll be somewhere between the ~3.5 he posted in ’15 and his projection, so maybe 2.5 WAR. Inciarte gets heavy defensive regression back to ~1.6 WAR as well though I’m guessing he does better than that. One more year of elite defense and the projection systems should start to appreciate Inciarte more. In general, banking on a young hitter with ~2 seasons of success is much more of a “sure thing,” if such a thing exists, than banking on a young pitcher. No such thing as a pitching prospect, the saying goes.
It’s certainly plausible to argue that it’s much easier to replace a player with Inciarte’s profile than to find a quality middle of the rotation starter. It’s still an overpay.
I mean, Adam Warren just got traded for Starlin Castro and his contract. Wade Miley was traded for a reliever. Obviously neither have the upside of Miller, but I don’t think they needed to act irrationally to improve their rotation.
I think what’s being lost in this is the perception of Miller. He was originally traded for Heyward. Now this. The Diamondbacks did not behave as if they were trading for a mid-rotation guy. There’s no doubt in my mind they think they just acquired a cheap #2.
Isn’t Heward worth more than this collection of players and prospects?
Not to the rebuilding Braves.
Exactly Coppy! You just proved my point. Value is relative. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. If players are valued by differently by different teams (due to place on win curve etc), then how can so many here claim that AZ objectively lost this trade? A marketplace is not a science lab. Relativity enters into every decision in a marketplace. To pretend otherwise serves to conceal the truth of the matter at hand rather than revealing it.
If it’s about the D-backs trying to win over the next two years, then it’s also about whether winning on that timeline is a good strategic decision on their part. And its about whether a trade like this was even a particularly good way of fulfilling that objective.
Given their investment in Greinke, AZ has no other choice than win now mode. Greinke’s signing was a clear, indisputable signal that AZ is all in for the short term. Hence they make this trade. The one move necessarily precipitated the other. Hedging their bet AFTER signing a 32 yo pitcher to a $206 million dollar contract would have been monumentally stupid. This move, on the other hand, was totally predictable, and more defensible than many here believe, given AZ’s competitive context.
But isn’t there some other team that would have given up a better pitcher for the same package? Maybe not Fernandez, but there are lots of better young pitchers than Miller. Carrasco? Salazar? Matz? Iglesias? Rodon?
I’d rather have any of them than Miller and is bet you could have gotten at least one of those for the same package.
We’re already definitively proclaiming that Steven Matz, Raisel Iglesias & Carlos Rodon are ‘better’ than Shelby Miller then?
Absolutely. They all have better K rates, and only Rodon has a suspect BB rate. Home run rates are random and, in my belief, not really directly affected much by the pitcher (other than flyball vs groundball). So you’re banking on Miller being able to continually beat BOTH the BABIP and HR gods. Those other guys strike out more and don’t rely on luck.
When I saw Miller was being traded, I thought ‘Great. We’re getting Pollock’. I was okay with that.
When Pollock was ruled out, I saw that a pitching prospect was said to be in the deal. I thought ‘Hmmm…Blair isn’t a bad prospect, but I would think there is more’. But I would have been accepting.
When Inciarte was announced, I thought ‘Wow. Inciarte AND Blair? that’s a solid return’. I was content.
When I saw that it was Inciarte AND Blair AND Swansn…well, I have to admit…it moved a little.
Miller for Pollock would have been absurdly bad for AZ, maybe worse than this.
If by “maybe” you mean definitely, then I concur.
Ugly trade, sure, but Arizona can sign Alex Gordon and immediately return. Inciarte played all 3 OF spots, but Gordo can stay in left, Pollack in center and things are even improved defensively. And, in the end, they have Miller, who I didn’t think all that much of (Cardinals fan here), but he doesn’t need to be anything but a #3.
People are already dooming Miller to never amount to anything over a number 3. Really? The guy is only 4 years older than Swanson and only 3 older than Blair! Hell just 4 years ago Miller was ranked by mlb.com as the 5th best prospect in baseball behind trout and harper! Plus for goodness sakes quit talking about mortgaging the future! The dbacks were the youngest team in baseball last year! They aren’t looking for replacements for any of there guys! Fact is value is value and obviously miller has a lot of it. It is flat out much harder than people realize to acquire young TOR talent.
It’s easy to get guys who have TOR talent, but hard to get ones who have or will fulfill that talent. Miller has it, and has not fulfilled it. No one is dooming him to never exceed being a #3, but it would be equally foolish to be at all confident he will do it, especially because his peripherals make him look like he should be worse, not better.
As with any trade, it’s fine to trade from depth, but it makes no sense to devalue your assets because you don’t need them. And, really, do they not need them? Is their rotation so deep they couldn’t have used Blair? Is their outfield so deep that Inciarte, or someone else, was being wasted?
From the article: I actually like Miller. I wrote about him the other day as a player with real 2016 upside, on account of having expanded his repertoire rather significantly in 2015. I think Miller has it in him to reach a higher level
You: People are already dooming Miller to never amount to anything over a number 3
Me: Huh?
Man, these trades really screw with my mind.
The Shields trade was on it’s face terrible for KC at the time. Ask just about any fan now, and they’ll tell you it was a coup for KC.
The Dee Gordon trade was considered to heavily favor the Dodgers. They got enough for a stopgap 2B who projected to be better than Gordon, a super-utility guy who projected to be almost as good with as much control, and other valuable stuff. Ask any Dodger fan what happened and you’ll get a veritable roulette wheel of creative formulations of “fire Andrew Friedman”.
Both of these trades are still fine for those teams originally declared winners, but both have caused me to wonder about whether we’re making a mistake being so certain in our projection. Ok, maybe each trade ended up in the 80th percentile for the “loser” and the 20th for the “winner” and it could just as easily have been an even bigger landslide than it first appeared. After all, Dodger fans also hate the Matt Kemp trade and I practically let that trade sing me to sleep at night. But, you know, still, hubris and whatever.
Narrative can be a bitch, but the recurring theme is the teams acquiring the prospects usually recoup some value.
Rays today have Steven Souza and Jake Odorizzi
Dodgers got a good year out of Kendrick and still have Kike Hernandez and Austin Barnes to show for it.
When it works out you end up with insane value for expendable parts. Grandal for Kemp. Addison Russell for Samardza and Hammell.
There’s also a lot of smart people in baseball now. Trades, theoretically, should keep becoming more win win. The KC World Series skews the reality of that trade. It helped KC capitalize on their present window, it helped TB extend theirs. That’s exactly how a trade should work.
Neither of those trades were this bad. Really.
The Dee Gordon trade brought back Andrew Heaney. Heaney was and is a nice prospect, but was massively overrated by prospect evaluators. He never profiled as anything more than a mid-rotation arm, as his minor league strikeout rates were mediocre. Nothing suggesting huge upside.
The Shields trade was a bit more lopsided, but Shields himself was a far far better piece than Shelby Miller. That’s the crux of the issue. The Shields trade was essentially a Shields for Wil Myers + Odorizzi swap (nobody thought anything of Wade Davis). People probably overrated Wil Myers a bit, as he had some serious strikeout issues in the minors. But still, if you forget about Wade Davis the trade hardly looks lopsided at this point. Odorizzi has established himself as a quality pitcher and both him and Myers have plenty of team control left.
The reason this trade is so terrible is because the Diamondbacks didn’t even improve their current team. At least with the Shields trade the Royals improved in the short term. Shelby Miller is massively, massively overrated. I’d even argue that he’s no better than Ender Inciarte.
I find this kind of thinking nonsensical. Inciarte is an OF. Miller is a SP. The dbacks needed pitching more than a good defensive platoon OF. Ergo Miller has much greater value for them. A straight WAR comparison between a SP and an OF isn’t nearly as compelling as it seems under that set of circumstances. The value of any ball player, especially ones unproven at the major league level, are just opinions not facts.
I remember thinking at the time of the Shields Myers trade, that Myers was being seriously over rated. He was a player without a defensive position. 20 somethings that already profile as bad defenders are risky to project with any confidence in my opinion. Too much pressure is put on their offensive contributions alone which often leads to not reaching their theoretical ceiling.
i dont see this all that comparable to that kc trade. davis already had an excellent year as a reliever, he only failed starting, full time relief was pretty evident to be even more beneficial to him. for reference he actually had a higher k rate in his 1 year relieving in tampa than he did last year. i was also the low guy on myers and still am. myers never truly had a position so you knew he was corner OF only. in this deal you are talking about a CF and SS and SP, thats 3 of the 4 most valuable positions with catcher being in the mix.
From a dbacks fans perspective. We haven’t had a offseason like this since before the 2001 World Series. This will sell season tickets. Thousands of them that would otherwise be empty seats. I feel like a lot of you do not actually have a grasp of the d backs farm system or their pro roster.
For the outfield we have Tomas who hit 300 through most of the season after not playing baseball for a year. He wasn’t in shape last year either. Club believes that with first offseason training regimen he will significantly improve, not drop off in hitting like last year towards the end of the season, and be able to competently play the outfield.
David Peralta is another great defender and bat. He’s a solid number four hitter who was the best protection for Paul Goldschmidt last year. If he’s able to play everyday his power stats will improve significantly.
Than we have aj pollock who is our all star center fielder and 2nd best hitter.
In our farm we have the obrien kid we got from the Yankees who is a stud hitter and would not get to see the majors if we didn’t make the trade.
Last year we had a logjam in the outfield and every starter suffered for it since we had to play the hot bats.
I remember not being excited about having the number one pick this year because there was no clear cut elite prospect. Dansby might end up being great. But we have an excellent defensive shortstop in nick Ahmed who may or may not learn how to hit. He made serious strides last year in the department. Than we have brandon drury in the farm to compete with Ahmed. Drury has just as high of an upside as Swanson and has a proven minor league bat.
As for the pitching we have so many young arms with potential that trying to peg down who will be the 4 and 5 pitcher this year is impossible. We have the prospects in Bradley Shipley and gotley who came out of nowhere last year. The kids who pitched sometimes well and sometimes awful in ruby de la rosa Robbie ray and chase Anderson. Blair projects as a mid to end of the rotation guy. He’s not an ace he doesn’t have the goods.
I was more pissed with the tookie trade last year that kid has a way higher ceiling.
The point I’m trying to make is the dbacks have the depth in their organization to trade for a guy who made an all star team and who is getting better. I think every dbacks fan is ok with it because it’s the shake and bake the organization has needed for years. This isn’t to diminish the players that the braves got, they are all talented in their own way, you can’t put a value on the juice the community in Phoenix is feeling right now. So trash the organization all you want. We were number 2 in nl runs last year have a franchise 1st baseman cy young candidate a young up an coming all star center fielder and now two more young arms who have made all star games. So look out and enjoy the taste of the dust we kick up the next three years.
“He’s not an ace he doesn’t have the goods.”
If he’s not an ace – he’s out the door. That’s what I always say. Ain’t got time for non-aces in my rotation.
But anyway, what you’re saying about the D-Backs fanbase being reinvigorated is basically exactly what was said about the Padres last year. Making moves is nice, but they really should be good moves too.
The key difference between the Padres and dbacks is that we are going to miss one outfielder who was not an every day player and have replaced him with two all star pitchers who immediately strengthen the rotation. We have not shaken or disrupted the overall chemistry of the team. The Padres completely reshaped their team last year. It’s comparing apples to oranges. The Padres got mercenaries and didn’t have the talent to sustain success. Dbacks just added two pitchers who will provide stability for years not year. The one thing the dbacks were missing last year was consistent starting pitching. We just added it without sacrificing much from our every day pro roster.
“We have not shaken or disrupted the overall chemistry of the team.”
That was the Padres’ problem last year?
“didn’t have the talent to sustain success”
Yeah, probably actually that.
“two pitchers who will provide stability for years not year.”
Unlike the Padres who signed James Shields, one of baseball’s most reliable pitchers, for four years.
“We just added it without sacrificing much from our every day pro roster.”
Padres also didn’t sacrifice much from the MLB team. The point here is “energizing a fanbase” is only really used as justification for bad trades. Good trades are conducive to winning, and winning energizes a fanbase, but that doesn’t really need to be said.
you say he was not an everyday player but he still managed to play in 132 games and accumulate 561 PA’s, even with that “outfield logjam” the first guy was referencing. projections have him as a league average hitter, above average baserunner and i will just guess above average defender all while capable of playing a premium position in CF. sounds like an everyday guy to me.
Totally agree here. The dbacks are a far superior team both before and after these off season moves than the Padres ever were. Who was Goldy for the Padres? Who was their Greinke? Dbacks have a far better team than the Padres both before and after their respective off season over hauls.
You know the difference between the Dbacks and Padres? The Diamondbacks were already a .500 team before the Greinke trade. These comparisons to the Padres are extremely poor – the Dbacks have far more talent (4th in NL in position player fWAR last year) than the Padres did. The Padres had some massively glaring holes – Upton, Myers, Kemp outfield??? I know it’s a convenient narrative but it’s not a very good one.
And you say below “Padres also didn’t sacrifice much from the MLB team.” So far, the Dbacks have only lost Inciarte, who will be replaced by a likely platoon of Brito and Tomas. I think Brito is honestly better than Inciarte – a very similar player but with more power.
I’m having flashbacks to Padres fans defending Preller’s moves.
Then you might have some trouble parsing detail… put aside whether you think this deal was good there is no comparison to the ’15 Padres and ’16 Diamondbacks.
Padres shipped out a good half of their team and a solid chunk of their farm to completely revamp their line up with streaky guys on the tail end of their contracts.
Diamondbacks have done 2 deals of note; signing Greinke to a six year deal and this one and lost Inciarte who I love but is honestly replaceable and 2 good prospects which should not be diminished; just putting things in context
Can we all agree to chill with the Pad’s comparison? We can revisit if we end up moving Peralta, Pollock, Tomas and 10-15 more prospects for Eithier, Phillips, Beltre and Gomez
None of that changes the fact that you could have gotten much more for what you paid.
So when the Barves win the East in 2018, will Hart or Dave Stewart win Executive of the Year for engineering the rebuild?
Dave Stewart is on speed dial before his wife.
I just want to reiterate how much I love the idea of calling them “the Barves” (more than one barf). But now they may not be barves by 2018!
This WAS a good move for both sides! Atlanta got the unproven talent that they can sit around and dream about for the next few seasons, and Arizona got another TOR arm that completes their rotation rather nicely. Also, where were all these glowing reports of Blair when he was a Dback? I have been an Aaron Blair fan for years and it seems like tonight people are talking about a completely different guy! He is nowhere near the kind of pitcher Miller is! He has had good success in the minors but realistically with his stuff he is at most a number 4 pitcher.
I’d say this trade depletes their minor league system rather nicely at least.
From the Braves perspective, they’re rebuilding. And how else does a team rebuild but by acquiring young talent? Not exactly a radical concept. Blair Swanson and Inciarte should provide more value over a longer period than Miller.
“Blair Swanson and Inciarte should provide more value over a longer period than Miller”
And at a time when the team will likely start having that young talent gel into a (hopefully) competitive team.
Miller on the Braves in 2016 means they lose 95 instead of 100. In’17, maybe they lose 88 instead of 93. He’s gone to FA soon after. Miller does little to help the team improve, and won’t be there when they have (assuming players develop and such).
This post’s title is perfect in every way
Regarding mortgaging the future, this trade is not bad that the Dbacks are trading future for present value. The problem is that the Dbacks could have gotten much greater present value for the future value that they traded away. Just using conservative valuations makes this discrepancy apparent. Take steamers Inciarte projection of 1.5 wins (quite conservative given he has turned in 6 wins over 1000 PAs) and five years of control. Thats say 7.5 wins * a 7mil value/win = $52.5 mil of value. Add say a $40 mil for Swanson with a lower pedigree than Moncada and some inflation since then. Now for a nice round number lets call Blair a $7.5 mil asset. Yup $100 millions in assets when everything is rounded down in Zonas favor for three arb years of Miller. Add in Millers arb salaries and he needs to be worth ~$115 million for this deal to make sense. No matter how optimistic your evaluation of Miller is you dont project and pay for him as if hes an established top 10 pitcher after two +4 xFIP seasons.
Ok…i forgot to remove Inciarte’s salary but i dont think that invalidates the entire excercise.
Steamer has already downgraded Inciarte to 0.9 wins (assuming you didn’t misread the 1.5wins)? Weird that he’s projected to be so much worse than his first 2 years, BABIP and def value look low to me. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4922&position=OF
A few number two starters for playoff teams: Colin Mchugh, Marco Estrada, Ervin Santana. What the hell is a number two starter. If Shelby Miller is a three than a whole hell of alot of teams in the MLB are screwed. I’d say a good way to judge a number two is by looking around the league and comparing him to the guy slotted in the number two spot for the other 29 mlb rotations around the league. If he is in the top ten of mlb number twos comparatively speaking id say hes a number two. The braves number two for the majority of my lifetime was a hall of famer. Does that mean my perception of a prototypical number two is a guy that resembles that? No. Instead I look around the league as its currently constructed and I say damn our number two starter is better than nearly every team we faces number two. To me that makes him a number two.
Yeah, Marco Estrada was totally a number two starter on a playoff team.
As a Blue Jays fan, your user name makes me uncontrollably sad.
ervin santana? did the twins make the playoffs?
i forgot to add, pretty sure houston traded for kashmir. keuchel and kashmir. so literally all 3 of your examples were wrong.
And McHugh was good! I’d say he is a great example of a good #2.
Sorry ervin was not on a playoff team I meant to say play off teams and a team that was in the hunt.
so does this suggest that the DBacks, after a year of Swanson, aren’t so sure? His numbers look good. Is there a character thing we don’t know about? Very odd…
(Swanson apparently from Georgia, so Braves understandably keen there).
Not just from Georgia, from 2 miles away from where their new 2017 stadium is being built.
But it’ll still take him 90 minutes in traffic to get there.
And that’s only because he already knows the Atlanta highway system.
Miller’s cFIP- this year: 97, tied with Chen, Porcello, Lynn, and McHugh. Until I see a breakdown explaining how Miller beats his peripherals, I’ll expect he won’t continue to do so going forward.
What blows my mind is that even if the D-backs are right in knowing Toussaint and Swanson will never add up to the sum of their parts and so feel they should trade them, they are trading these players as though the rest of MLB knows this too.
If they’ve got a busted flush in their hand you still push it through as a bluff. Swanson and Blair could have and should have netted someone like Miller, if not Swanson alone. Or even Inciarte and Blair.
It is all well and good saying trades like this energise the fanbase but the players just given up could probably have been used to acquire two Miller quality players. Now THAT would energise a fanbase.
This is the exact argument why the Red Sox shouldn’t have given so much to get Kimbrel. In practice, it seems that the urgency to get something done often ends up overriding the discipline to walk away when the asking price is just too high.
Couldn’t disagree more. Proven major league talent trumps theoretical upside for teams trying to compete in the near term. Theoretical valuations of minor league players are just that theoretical.
Since the professional executives that are paid big bucks to make these kinds of trades and choices seem to consistently disagree with the saber metric community’s valuations perhaps it’s the saber community that needs to reevaluate its own premises.
Life is water not stone. Valuations of players and prospects change over time and in different contexts. I am 100% certain that the Kimbrel trade was a good one for the sox, especially given their desire to compete right now. The future is uncertain. In the long run we are all dead. Carpe diem. I suspect the dbacks will be just fine. Wouldn’t an AZ/BOS WS in 2016 just tie the saber community in knots! Here’s hoping it happens.
Did you miss the part where this trade was roundly panned for the DBacks by executives and scouts?
Just like the Shields/Myers trade, right?
The reason the FanGraphs community got the Shields/Myers trade so wrong was because they overvalued prospects and undervalued the fact that the Royals were actually ready to win. Moore traded for safe bets in Shields and Davis because he wanted immediate value for the big league club, because he correctly thought his team was ready to win. Both Shields and Davis were known commodities at the time (note, it is revisionist history to suggest Davis turned into a superman reliever after he got to the Royals. He was unhittable in 2012 for the Rays as well). Sure there was a chance that Myers and Odorizzi would both hit and the Rays would have better value down the road, but even the best prospects are high risk. Wil Myers’ career path is not exactly shocking. Odorizzi has turned out OK though.
If Stewart is correct that the Diamondbacks are ready to win now and Miller helps get them to the playoffs, they won’t care much about value that the Braves may get a few years down the road.
but none of that excuses the extraordinarily high likelihood that the Dbacks could have gotten more for these prospects than they did.
I’m not sure it is worth speculating about what they could have gotten for this particular package since we don’t know what else was available or how other teams value these prospects.
Found a new drinking partner.
Saying that Ender Inciarte (alone) for Shelby Miller would have been a deal that favored the Braves is completely ignorant. The Braves clearly thought highly of Miller when he was the prize return on Jason Heyward. Inciarte is solid but is similar to a guy like Gerrardo Parra. Great defense, good speed, decent contact, but struggles against lefties, and opposing pitchers are still learning how to pitch to him at this stage of his career. Brendan Rodger’s was the front runner to be taken number 1 until Dansby Swanson’s solid run in the college world series. He is completely unproven and if it was between him or Pollock than the Dbacks made the right choice. The diamondbacks have a lot of outfield depth and are not limited to Yasmany Tomas. In fact many scouts would say that Socrates Brito projects to be a much better version of both Inciarte and David Peralta, not to mention Peter O’Brien (who could wind up as a 30 Hr guy). Shelby Miller had dominating stretches last year on a team that was playing for nothing, and had low incentive to win, which speaks volumes to his ability. Many proclaimed his as steal from the cardinals early on. He solidifies a now very solid rotation for the Dbacks who are poised to make a run in the NL West.
The problem with Miller is that the K rates have plummeted since his debut. 7.5 k/9 in the NL is not good.
So now you’re relying on him sustaining a low BABIP or suppressing home runs to be elite. That’s possible, but it’s much more likely that he can’t and is only above average to good instead of excellent.
His K/9 increased this past year, and he has developed new pitches, that most scouts believe make him a more polished pitcher. His development of a cutter and 2 seam have led his ground ball rate to increase by 10%. Projections indicate he will get better, not worse.
We’ll see. I don’t buy it. He’s a rich man’s (maybe a 1%ers) Jeremy Hellickson. The minor league K rates just aren’t holding up (same as Hellickson).
Funny, I was thinking of Parra as a comp for INciarte all along. Also funny how Parra suddenly went from one of the best defensive OF in all of baseball to one of the worst in the span of a couple years and once you get past his defense, he’s pretty replacement level-ish. Inciarte is a PArra with less pop.
Given what we know about defensive numbers, what happens if his defensive numbers dry up?
All of the examples I gave were wrong, Mchugh did start game one and five in the Alds, but I think the logic is sound. Current number twos: C.J. WIslon, Jesse Hahn, Jimmy Nelson, Tom Koehler, Jordan Lyles, Anthony Desclafani…You get the idea. I don’t know what cfip is and K rate is important but I think Tim hudson was pretty good and his k rate wasnt very high either. Shelby Miller is a two in my mind and id be hard pressed to change that opinion based on his peripheral stats. One of the main reasons I’d be hard pressed is the fact that I watched 90 percent of his starts last year. Pointing out stats is all well and good but if you only watched three or four starts open your mind up to the idea that you might not be in the very best position to make that judgement call on Shelby. People point out Andrelton as a reason for his success. Ever heard of Chris Johnson he played third alot for us last year or how bout kelly johnson ever seen him play left field? Im not saying im an expert either im just saying if somebody told me that jesse hahn was going to be a lights out number two next year and they were a die hard A’s fan that watched nearly 90 percent of his starts I wouldn’t look at the back of his baseball card and think im an expert on the situation.
This doesn’t make any sense — your argument is predicated on the idea that pitching is evenly distributed around the league, and it absolutely is not. “#2 starter” doesn’t mean anything.
Is Anthony Desclafani better than Noah Syndergaard? Because Syndergaard is just a “#3 starter” on the Mets.
Your right pitching is not evenly distributed around the league and Shelby Miller is better than most two’s so how is he a definite three that’s all I’m saying. It was a definitely a trade rape I just don’t like the disrespect Shelby is being shown especially when it’s said like it’s a common fact that he’s a “three”.
I encountered this the other day. The terms are tomatoes/tomahtoes, sure, but you could look at No. 1’s being top 10-15 pitchers (30 teams, not each team has a ‘true’ no 1) and no. 2’s being top 15-25 or so. Miller was top 25 WAR…pretty much makes him a no. 2. Suggesting anything else based on cherry picking rate stats is kinda beside the point.
You can throw the word ‘proven’ around, but that’s kind of a cheap shot as he’s only had 2 non-rookie season. You don’t see people saying Fernandez isn’t a ‘proven’ no. 1 because of injury limitations the last two years (not saying he is or isn’t, but it’s certainly questionable).
Are the D-Backs allowed to trade Dansby Swanson before June? I thought drafted players had to play a year before they could be traded. It would be a shame if Swanson.ends up in an extended Spring Training purgatory.
MLB changed the rule post Trea Turner.
Best title ever.
With Swanson’s mechanics, I don’t see how his bat is ever going to play at the major league level. Not sure how the other side of the trade will fare but I don’t think Swanson comes anywhere close to what many are projecting. Maybe the seller developed a similar view.
I agree his swing is downright fugly but he had a lot of brand-name value is what most people are arguing.
JDBolick, we did not trade Simmons for Samardzija, we traded Russell and McKinney for Samardzija and Hammel, both had strong seasons in Chicago and while Samardzija finished well with us, Hammel tanked hard moving to the AL West.
McKinney by consensus is a number 4 OF’er, he has below average foot speed and a modest toolset for the field, his bat has contact but no pop.
Russell is a loss but we ended up trading Samardzija for 4 players:
Marcus Semien, had a horrible first half but his 8 errors committed in the post all star period was significant, he also improved his discipline at the plate, the net result was finishing around 2.9WAR to Russell’s 3.2WAR, there is only 1.5 years age difference and Semien is very athletic, add the 11 SB and the HR power upside, if Ron Washington polishes his defense he could easily make up Russell.
Phegley, he and Vogt put up a 4+ WAR platoon at Catch, he had a 2.2WAR as a back up player with little time being on the wrong side of the platoon. He is not a perfect athlete but he did a sterling job for us.
Bassitt, He seemed like a BoR/reliever option and struggled in the spring with pitching to the Lefties, he then used AAA time to work on a slider, the result was flat out dominating LH hitting. Showing mid rotation potential and sticking there.
Ravelo, hits, hits, hits, he doesn’t have power but most scouts have him in the Eric Hosmer mould, he is a tough out as he averages way about league average for pitches per at bat, he is geared towards heavy gap power contact. he is now injury free and in AAA, in his Venezuala league meetings he had a 1600 OPS and that was not on the Home Run, add polished defensive metrics at 1B and RF he is a solid player in return. He holds a MiLB record for consecutive hitting streak.
So in many ways we made up with 4 players that will likely feature this year for us.
For the record if they offered us this deal for Sonny Gray, I think we would have taken it, it was only 4 days ago I proposed:
Gray for Peralta, Enciarte, Shipley and Bradley with maybe us throwing in something like Brett Lawrie or a mid-tier prospect.
Who are “we”?
so a top 30 prospect in all of baseball is by consensus a 4th OF? sure he doesnt profile as having an elite ceiling, but much more there than 4th OF. his foot speed? hes a plus defender in left even with a rag arm, which is why he has played a few games in center. and sure he doesnt have 30 homer pop, but he definitely has 15 homer pop with high OBP. thats above league average hitter.
Dear Phillies: Please trade Ken Giles to the Dbacks for whatever they have left.
Wow, those D’backs sure are all in, now they have the 10th best WAR projection in the NL! Stewart is a genius.
The wonks are way overvaluing Swanson. The draft last year was weak, no consensus top players. He could have been drafted 10th as easily as he was the top pick. He was less than impressive in his pro debut last summer.
Nowhere near as advanced as a Kris Bryant or Kyle Schwarber as college players coming into pro ball. Not a big fan of Miller myself, but the trade was not that bad.
Would that all prospects had unimpressive debuts like his 145 WRC+ at shortstops.
He did that over 99 PA as a college guy in low-A. chill.
Preach that truth brother!
They gave up 2 top 50 prospects and a guy that is as good as Miller with more control years for Miller. It is that bad.
Inciarte is not as good as Miller. Their WAR totals were roughly the same over a single year; that’s where the comparison ends.
If only we could use this WAR-based logic to trade players, we could reasonably Ender straight up for peak-level Mariano Rivera
he was pretty much the consensus first overall last year. sure most drafts hes more top 5 than number 1, but that is still extremely valuable.
The way Arizona makes head scratching moves – people must have compromising pictures of the owner or GM
The people saying this would have got them Fernandez are morons and know absolutely nothing. The Marlins were asking for AJ Pollock and Patrick Corbin among other prospects. There is no way anyone could think Swanson, Blair enciarte would have netted anyone but a #2 or 3 starter. Arizona still has Bradley, young Shipley, Anderson, godly for pitching prospects all of which are closer to being major league ready. Also the idea that Swanson is a lock to be great is completely ridiculous, if I said Stephen Drew was shipped off in a similar deal no one would bat an eye, Drew was also a #1 SS and was a total bust. Arizona has a top offense and defense, pitching is going for ridiculous amounts now and you have to give up something to get them. Atlanta wanted Pollock, Arizona countered with Swanson who won’t be ready for 3 years. Miller has 3 years of team control and is coming into his prime at 25. Sorry but I think the author and most people commenting on this have no idea what they are talking about.
Agree to some extent- but understand who you’re dealing with: internet community for LOVES top-100 prospects.
Keep in mind, if you didn’t already know, Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart don’t value prospects and draft picks as highly as most other MLB GM’s.
They are looking for proven value and with depth in the organization, it was worth the cost to shore up the rotation.
Adding Greinke and Miller to what they already had with Corbin, De La Rosa, Ray, Godley etc… solidifies them.
They weakened the Dodgers in the process.
I like the moves.
Well Done Kiley
Now do you get it why I went solo?
Ha ha, well done.
No more ‘I love you’s’ evidently.
Now Im reading that the Braves are getting calls on moving Ender Inciarte. I wonder if he will be a flip for more assets…
Inciarte for Brady Aik… oh, wait
That would be great for the braves. I’ll bet the Cubs come knocking.
I loves me some fangraphs’ drank, but some of you have had too much kool aid:
Inciarte is not as good as Shelby Miller. That trade, straight-up, would not be ‘fair’ or ‘balanced’ for the braves. Good god. I’m jazzed about this trade as a braves fan, but it is mostly because we didn’t get fleeced and shelby deserves better than what the braves were offering not because we got inciarte for miller ‘oh! and they threw in two great prospects’. LAWL.
Finally, a voice of reason.
If Miller got dealt straight up for Inciarte, ATL would be burned at the fangraphs stake, given today’s SP market.
Market forces rule!
I think its fair to give the benefit of doubt that Az asked about lots of other available pitching talent, and the price quoted by other teams was equal or higher to this deal. Sabermetric calculation of value is useful, but can’t account for the current perceived cost of acquiring cheap low $ good pitching.This market value is inflated by all the high $ FA contracts. Az likely got as good a deal as they could and better pitchers would have cost more at this moment due to market forces. Az may overvalue Miller due to LaRussa history with Miller, and they may undervalue future projected prospect value, but both teams got what they wanted,at a market rate, and the future will play out to show what was the better half of this deal.As a Braves fan we gamble on future mlb performance which is fine and what we need, whilst Az gets a good player that they believe will be better than good.