Diamondbacks Select Jarrod Dyson from Value Menu
(Photo: Keith Allison)
While the J.D. Martinez signing was certainly baseball’s headline news item from Monday, the announcement of Jarrod Dyson’s two-year deal with the Diamondbacks represents an intriguing undercard.
Dyson is a versatile piece for Arizona. He’ll be able to spell A.J. Pollock in center field while also possibly playing a platoon role with the right-handed and defensively challenged Yasmany Tomas in left.
Left field projects to be the Diamondbacks’ weakest position, and Dyson’s glove-first game should play up in a Chase Field that is expected to better suppress run scoring with the news that it is adding a humidor to reduce the impact of baseballs batted into the desert air.
That should, theoretically, lead to a greater quantity of catchable balls. In this regard, Dyson is quite valuable. He ranks seventh in DRS among center fielders since 2014 and eighth in UZR/150. While known for his glove and speed, he’s shown enough bat to be a regular in the lineup, as well — or, at least enough to serve as a platoon bat against right-handed pitching.
Dyson slashed a modest .251/.324/.350 with an 85 wRC+ overall last season but posted a .271/.342/.388 slash line and 100 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. It was enough for a 2.1 WAR campaign over 390 plate appearances in his age-32 season. In 2016 for the Royals, he slashed .278/.340/.388 with a 95 wRC+ en route to a career-best 3.1-win season. Long relegated to reserve status, he’s proven worthy of more playing time in recent years. For his career, Dyson owns a .267/.331/.372 and 93 wRC+ versus righties (52 wRC+ vs. lefties).
At the reported two years and $7.5 million, the deal has a chance to produce significant value for Arizona. Depth Charts projections have Dyson producing a 1.7-win season over 455 plate appearances.
The FanGraphs’ crowdsource effort predicted a two-year, $16-million contract and Dave Cameron predicted a two-year, $22-million pact. Cameron ranked Dyson among his top bargains entering the offseason.
At this modest price — and for a club that will benefit from greater outfield defense in a home environment that should better suppress runs — it’s going to be hard for Arizona to lose on this deal. And if they can gain a win or two out of it, it could be crucial for a club that might find itself in a tight Wild Card race. FanGraphs projects the Diamondbacks to finish roughly .500 this coming season as presently constituted. The addition of Dyson should bump up that figure slightly.
Still, a deal for an aging speed-dependent player is not without risk.
Entering his age-33 season, it’s fair to wonder if the speed-dependent player Dyson could fall into a steep decline. Dyson did have season-ending sports hernia surgery last September and missed a significant portion of the season on the disabled list.
Will injuries mount?
Will he keep his speed?
His sprint speed of 28.8 feet per second ranked 30th overall in the game last season, according to Baseball Savant. He was amongst the fleetest players in the game, but it was a decline from his 29.6 feet/second speed of 2016, which ranked fourth in the majors — and from 2015, too, when he ranked No. 1 (30.0 feet/second) in the first year of Statcast-player tracking.
Dyson’s game is built on speed and defense, so the Diamondbacks will have to hope he retains most of those gifts over the next two seasons. The deal is not without risk, but it has a chance to be one of the better value signings of the offseason. While some in Diamondbacks Nation were hoping for a reunion with Martinez, a player who became one of the better trade-deadline acquisitions of the 21st century, Dyson carries far less long-term risk and still offers short-term potential. The club might have also some value-priced run production in catcher and Statcast darling Alex Avila.
Dyson and Avila are not stars, but they are the types of assets that can supply sneaky value around a core that led the team to the postseason a season ago. This isn’t a headline-grabbing move, but it could help the club back to the postseason. Perhaps it’s not enough, but it’s something.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
He is both the anti-Yasmani Tomas and the point man for a humidor-inspired roster makeover.
At first glance one has to wonder why the Giants did not sign him for this amount instead of Austin Jackson, but maybe Dyson changed his asking price since then.
This move probably gets lost in the shadow of the JDM singing, but it’s a great deal for Arizona.
The season-ending surgery was his choice, though, and it surprised Dipoto and the Mariners (and fans). The timing couldn’t have been worse, as they were still kind of alive in the hunt for a Wild Card and Heredia was having serious shoulder issues, which led to him being shut down shortly after.
I can’t help but wonder if that self-exclusion from the field ended up hurting him.
When Dyson went under the knife the Mariners were below .500 with less than 5% odds to make the playoffs, although I understand that counts as contention in Seattle.
Sure am glad Dipoto didn’t make this deal and instead gave up three prospects to pay three times as much salary to an infielder with a virtually identical projection who’s never played the position before. Mm mm mmm.
I think we all know that Dipoto likes trading, but he might actually be addicted to trades. He just can’t seem to stop, even when it makes more sense to try and sign a free agent.
It’s like that guy/gal (everyone knows him/her) who sprained and ankle but tries to run anyway, because s/he runs every day and feels the compulsion to do it. He just has to trade.
He traded for Healy, Gordon, and Armstrong this offseason. That’s it. It’s possible, if not likely, another deal will come (starting pitching would be the obvious area of need), but it looks like he has the team he wants on the field and in the ‘pen.
3card, the Mariners were 3.5 games back with 18 left to play when they got the news about Dyson. They had gotten Paxton and Felix back just a few days before, and both Ramirez and Leake were pitching strong. The odds were against them, but they had reason for hope at the time, hence my “kind of still alive” remark. Context does apply here.
But in your snark, you’re still missing a couple of things.
First, the Mariners tried to extend Dyson and they were likely offering considerably more than the deal he ended up with. He wasn’t interested, so you shouldn’t assume the deal he got with Arizona was on the table for Seattle, and the bigger point in my comment was that he may have hurt himself financially by taking himself off the field.
Second, Dyson is a platoon bat with durability questions, Gordon isn’t. Dyson’s also 4 years older than Gordon. It shouldn’t be hard to understand why Dipoto switched his focus elsewhere. Though Gordon will have to prove himself in CF, he offers positional flexibility, which is important with Cano showing signs of decline. The initial reports on Gordon’s transitional progress have been good, if you’re curious.
Regarding the cost to acquire Gordon, the only significant prospect in that return was Nick Neidert, who’s still likely a year or two away and projects as a number 4 starter. Gordon has 4 years of control they can use now and his contract certainly doesn’t break the bank.
But yeah, I get it. It’s more fun to take jabs at Mariner fans and Dipoto than to try to truly understand what was/is happening.
It sounds like you think that Gordon is likely to continue putting up .350+ BABIPs, 9+ baserunning value and 8+ defensive value (despite moving up the defensive spectrum, getting older leading to more injuries/less speed).
You may be right. I will take the under on those.
I like Gordon’s odds for better baserunning simply because he’s more durable and younger. Defense in CF remains to be seen, but I would anticipate a greater decline offensively from Dyson.
Gordon won’t be platooned but he probably should be, as his wRC+ was 27 points worse against LHP last season and 21 points worse in 2016. I doubt that they will regret any of the prospects they gave up, but that’s a pretty massive difference in salary.
It is a significant difference in salary, but I seriously doubt Dyson was available to Seattle at that price. It’s probably more likely that he wasn’t available to anyone at that price until very recently. Gordon was much better against RHP, but Dyson simply wasn’t an option at all against LHP. Huge difference between the two vs. LHP last season.
Good deal for Arizona. It looks like Patience has benefited them.
I’m a Mariners fan myself so my comment was meant only in solidarity and good humor. I actually think the Gordon deal was more about the international bonus money/desperation to sign Ohtani than any of the stuff you mention. I still hated it at the time but if they’d landed Ohtani obviously all would’ve been forgiven. But they didn’t, so it’s not.
All good.
The other players involved in that trade probably represented the IBP dough, but I think Neidert for Gordon would have happened regardless. I was okay with that trade. Personally, I didn’t care for any of the other trades this offseason. Loved the Mike Ford Rule 5 pick, though.
Will be interesting to see what Dipoto does about starting pitching. With Ramirez out with a lat strain, I would imagine it will be a lot longer than 2 weeks. If that’s the case, Jerry will have to get creative to find an answer.
“FanGraphs projects the Diamondbacks to finish roughly .500 this coming season as presently constituted. The addition of Dyson should bump up that figure slightly.”
The .500 projection already incorporates Dyson. And earlier projections had the Diamondbacks above .500. Assuming the addition of Dyson didn’t actually hurt the Diamondbacks’ projected record, anyone know what is going on with the changes?
Dyson also projects for 1.7 WAR in 455 PAs on his player page, and 0.7 WAR in 476 PAs on the AZ depth chart. Curious.
The depth chart reflects the humidor sapping his power
My guesses are other teams got better, individual player projections got updated, or a playing time adjustment was made
Such an amazing contrast to the now lost Martinez. Polar opposites in skill set and salary, yet could be less than 1 WAR difference in value.
Over the past two seasons combined, Martinez has produced 5.6 fWAR and Dyson had produced 5.2 fWAR. Dyson handily outpaces Martinez in fWAR per PA (.00715 to .00557).
Power is beginning to lose some of its value in the market, but it is still wildly overpriced compared to speed and defense.
But power ages better, so it possibly worth paying more for it in free agency.
Actually, power ages worse than speed. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/31/2199146/hitter-aging-curves
In one chart on that post, you can see that speedy players and power hitters are equal at age 25. But at every age from 26 to 37, the speedy players have the advantage.
The market doesn’t pay anywhere near as much for defensive WAR as offensive WAR, in part because teams are much less confident that defensive WAR is accurately measuring that value.
It seems like there is something close to industry-wide consensus that Jarrod Dyson has been an excellent defensive OF thus far in his career.
He is undeniably an excellent defensive outfielder, the question is how much that excellent defense has been worth to his teams. The market does not believe that it has been as valuable to his teams as his defensive WAR would suggest.
From 2013-2016 (the Royals “contention window”):
Dyson hit like Salvador Perez, played defense like Lorenzo Cain, and ran the bases like Billy Hamilton.
I’m convinced that he’s one of the most underrated players of the past few years (though yes he never faces lefties so that helps) now that A.J. Pollock and Jose Quintana are getting their proverbial dues.
How can you write an entire article about a signing without including the value of the contract? :p
“At the reported two years and $7.5 million, the deal has a chance to produce significant value for Arizona.”
In your defense, I missed it the first time too, kind of buried in the middle of the post.
I realize this isn’t a newspaper, but it really should be in the 1st para, esp when the premise is about the contract being good value.
Given the amount, the only polite thing to do is not harp on it
The rumors of MLB teams spending money efficiently have been greatly exaggerated.
Dyson and Cain (+ Gordon) were wholly responsible for the Royals success at preventing runs while the front office seemingly tried to tank with their rotation of sub-replacement level pitchers like Chris Young and Jeremy Guthrie. But its the undeservedly anointed “face of the franchise” who gets rewarded and Dyson gets pretty much ignored by the whole of MLB.
Career WAR/500:
Cain: 3.8
Dyson: 3.8
Martinez (since swing change): 3.4
Hosmer: 1.1
What a farce. Pretty sure Cain and Dyson would have made SD a better team than Eric Hosmer ever will, but they lack his “marketability”. Make of that what you will.
Hosmer is also a)younger, b) maybe underrated by advanced defensive stats, and c)relies less on speed and defense for production. WAR isn’t everthing. While I agree with your statement in general, context is important when considering why a team gave out a contract.
Dyson’s contract is shorter in term. He is signed through his age 34 season. Hosmer is signed through his age 35 season.
Do you have any evidence that speed and defense decline at earlier ages than hitting? It seems believable, but I have yet to see anything conclusive.
i think it re-affirms how little confidence mlb teams put in defensive metrics.
Great title.
Why is there not an article on Corey Dickerson? That was the most shocking thing that has happened.
Most likely because it’s incomplete news. Have to see where and for what he’s traded. They have a few days to complete a deal for him while he’s in the DFA-zone.
I know there will be when he signs, but cmon lets here some hot takes. That was downright shocking.
Hear also
Nothing has happened yet, other than they made it official that they will try to trade him
I’ve been waiting for this for a while too. My mind was blown, and think he could be a huge value for the right team.
And as long as we’re at it, it’s weird that there’s been no mention of CJ Cron either. And mostly it’s weird because there were articles *every day* on how nothing was happening at all, and now that things are happening that are interesting we aren’t talking about them.
I know this is not going to be popular on here, but I don’t think Dyson is necessarily such a great value but my bigger issue is the way we discuss value on sites like this. For outliers with big contracts, market value is hard to gauge properly because you don’t have a real market. For someone like this, every team could have bid on Dyson and most teams in baseball could have used him. He can play all 3 OF positions or even function as a 4th OFer. With a legitimate open market, this is what Dyson got. To me, there are two options:
1) Either teams that spend millions of dollars on analytics, proprietary value measurements, and scouting are all valuing the wrong aspects of player value.
2) WAR is an imperfect measurement of actual player value.
So when people say things like “Power is overpriced in the market” or “teams don’t value defense enough”, it is a bit ridiculous because we are now in an era where 95% of teams use analytics as well as scouting to value players and spend millions doing so so what you are essentially saying is that looking at $/WAR online is more accurate value of signings than the way major league teams who have massive incentives to win and enormous resources value them.
It’s not that there aren’t bad signings (Hosmer makes no sense any way you look at it) just that if teams are valuing offense more than they are valuing defense at this point, it seems very likely that it’s just more important.
He’s a platoon player so for many teams he is a 4th OF.
(Not every team is open to platoon regulars.)
Value depends on need.
In that Dyson, Hosmer, Martinez, and Moustakas are fellow travellers, looking for the right mix of need, competitive position, and budget space. That is a pretty tight focus.
There’s several others still in that boat and the open slots are dwindling.
Rajai Davis just took a minors deal.
Duda and Morrison should be getting antsy…
The big issue that kind of gets glossed over here is that platooning eats up valuable roster spots that you can use on relievers (or something else). Ideally you have a multi-position switch-hitting all-star who plays multiple positions equally well and you then can stick platoon guys all over the place. But since a Ben Zobrist doesn’t come around all that often, you generally wind up using two roster spots to fill one position on the diamond and that has a cost.
Still, I sort of disagree with the statement “if teams are making the decision en masse, then they must be doing the right thing.” Teams make really dumb moves all the time!
Travis, what do you make of Tomas’s awful numbers against lefties last year? It was a very small sample size, but it was truly horrendous.
He was much better against them in 2016, but that was partly buoyed by a BABIP above .400. His plate discipline against lefties has been no better than against righties.
Do you think this means they are considering trying to trade Tomas? (Even if that means paying all of his salary)
Dyson could have significant trade value at the deadline, should a contending team lose an outfielder. Most of the top teams have plenty of power, Dyson could add speed and fielding, and he’s not particularly expensive for those who might be nearing the CBT threshold, particularly at a half-season rate.
Dyson is a valuable piece,on a solid team.
His time in KC has shown,his defense and speed,can be real assets.
He also adds depth over 162, good sign.
Guys, am I taking crazy pills, or could the Padres have signed Dyson and kept Myers at 1B and quite possibly have been a better-constructed team than they would have been signing Hosmer??
Without even taking into account the roster moves they could have made with the money they saved – literally just swap Dyson for Hosmer and the Padres may put a better team on the field over the next two years. Am I nuts to think that?
I think (a) this question is uniquely difficult to answer because of Hosmer’s inconsistency and (b) because of questions around Dyson.
(a) If Hosmer puts up 3+ WAR next year, it’s likely that he’ll outproduce Myers at first and Dyson in left. Of course, Hosmer could very well put up 0 WAR next year…so there are scenarios where Dyson and Myers are worth more than Myers and Hosmer.
(b) There are even more question marks around Dyson than around Hosmer, given that he’s coming off an injury, and he’s at an age where speed and defense starts to decline.
There is also the small issue that the Padres probably don’t care how good they are in 2018, but do care how good they are in 2019 and 2020. And for that, Hosmer will likely be worth more than Dyson.
Add in the extra roster spot needed so you can platoon Dyson, and I think in the end Hosmer + Myers will be worth more than Myers + Dyson. But the fact that we can even have this conversation is telling.
The platoon/roster spot point is dubious regarding Dyson because he can play CF & LF.
If he were LF only for example, then his platoon partner might similarly limited to corner OF: and therefore there would need to be 3 other OFs on the roster: starting CF, backup CF and RF (unless the RF could play CF).
As it is, Dyson can back up LF & CF when not starting, Tomas can back up LF and RF when not starting, and if Dyson is starting in LF but cover is needed in CF Tomas can come in and bump him over.
Yay! Another glove guy in a big park! Baseball fans love defense, even though some of us dont admit it.
Dude was the 1,475th pick in the draft.
Best title ever.