Did Cleveland’s Defense Sabotage Danny Salazar’s Start?

Among the points one is compelled to make when arguing on behalf of Corey Kluber’s candidacy for this year’s Cy Young award is that the defense behind him has been of suspect quality, leading to an inflated BABIP (.316) and higher ERA (68 ERA-) than his main rival for the distinction, Felix Hernandez (63 ERA-). Indeed, the main defensive metrics available at the present site, Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) rate Cleveland’s fielders as collectively the worst and… also the worst among the league’s 30 clubs.

With this as the background, then, one might naturally regard Danny Salazar’s line from Tuesday night with some measure of surprise (box score). On a night when he Salazar struck out 30% of the 26 batters he faced and recorded an xFIP and FIP of 3.75 and 1.63, respectively, that same right-hander also conceded eight hits and five runs over 4.2 innings, producing a single-game 9.64 ERA. While it’s not impossible for a pitcher to allow a .533 BABIP over the course of one start, it’s also not a common occurrence — and even more suspicious when it happens to a Cleveland pitcher.

In any event, Cleveland lost perhaps the last meaningful game they’ll play all season on a night when their starter recorded an above-average fielding-independent performance. Did Cleveland’s defense sabotage the game? Was it merely a case of batted-ball variance? A combination of the two?

Without defensive-tracking technology such as that presented by MLBAM at the beginning of the season, there’s no way to tell for sure the speed or efficiency of the routes with which each play has been executed. In the absence of a more sophisticated method, then, what I’ve done below is identify the five hits which led directly to Kansas City’s five runs and attempted to determine if the responsibility for them lay with Salazar, the defense, or some combination of both.

Fourth Inning
Batter: Alex Gordon
Outcome: Single
Sabotage? Probably Not

Here Cleveland is playing with a mild shift on Alex Gordon, with second baseman Mike Aviles positioned probably closer to the first-base line than he might otherwise and shortstop Jose Ramirez playing just on the first-base side of second. Aviles waves at Gordon’s liner to right field, but the latter has hit it hard enough that there’s little chance of an out being converted given the defensive alignment.

Batter: Omar Infante
Outcome: Double
Sabotage? No, But Then Yes

This double by Infante actually represents two defensive opportunities and has been divided into two GIFs for that purpose. On the one hand, there’s Infante’s fliner down the left-field line, which is a legitimate double. On the other hand, though, there’s Brantley’s deft handling of the ball in left field and relay to the shortstop Ramirez, who in turn relays home for a play on Alex Gordon. Because of either Ramirez’s throw, though, and/or Yan Gomes’ inability to field it cleanly Gordon scores on an instance where an out was a possible outcome. Billy Butler, who walked to lead off the inning, scored on this play before Gordon, so he’s entirely Salazar’s responsibility. The Gordon run, however, appears at least in part attributable to defensive shortcomings.

Fifth Inning
Batter: Eric Hosmer
Outcome: Double
Sabotage? Absolutely Not

This is real double by Hosmer off the right-field wall. In fact, were the file not too large for inclusion here, a longer GIF than this would reveal right fielder David Murphy nearly throwing out Hosmer at second base.

Batter: Billy Butler
Outcome: Ground-Rule Double
Sabotage? Maybe

This is a play where having some idea of a fielder’s starting point would be of some use. Just as Hosmer the play before, Butler hits the ball to right field. In this case, however, the ball hits the warning track and clears the wall for a ground-rule double. Where Murphy positioned himself quite well on the previous play, he appears to take something less than an entirely efficient route to the ball here, moving initially towards center field, but then bending back up to the right-field wall. The second GIF depicts Murphy’s position as the ball hits the track. Would a more direct path have led to an out? Perhaps. The result, however, isn’t a third out, but rather another Royals run and an opportunity for Salvador Perez…

Batter: Salvador Perez
Outcome: Double
Sabotage? Maybe

Michael Brantley has been one of the league’s best overall players this season, having produced exceptional offensive numbers while also occasionally recording defensive innings in center field. Despite having played on the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum, however, he’s been a below-average defender over the course of his career, having posted -35 defensive runs (a figure which includes UZR and positional adjustments) over four-plus seasons. Once again, as above with Murphy, it’s difficult to make any conclusive statements about Brantley’s path to the ball without also knowing his original starting point. What we do see of the route is relatively efficient, perhaps with a slight uphill turn by Brantley towards the fence. That he misses the ball by so little, however, also suggests that any lack of efficiency by Brantley on his route was the probably he difference of an out — and also two more runs.