Discussing the Line-Ups for the AL Wild Card Game

The AL Wild Card game rosters and line-ups are out, and there were a few interesting decisions made. Let’s look at those decisions, while remembering that the expected outcome in choosing the alternative is mostly the same, as line-up decisions don’t matter all that much in the grand scheme of things. They can matter a little bit, though, and in a winner-take-all elimination game, every little bit is worth talking about.

Firs, the A’s line-up against James Shields, with their projected wOBA by Steamer:

1. Coco Crisp, CF, .323 wOBA
2. Sam Fuld, LF, .285 wOBA
3. Josh Donaldson, 3B, .345 wOBA
4. Brandon Moss, DH, .335 wOBA
5. Josh Reddick, RF, .322 wOBA
6. Jed Lowrie, SS, .315 wOBA
7. Stephen Vogt, 1B, .314 wOBA
8. Geovany Soto, C, .288 wOBA
9. Eric Sogard, 2B, .292 wOBA

The thing that stands out is that the A’s have their worst projected hitter in the #2 hole, which is perhaps the most important spot in the entire line-up. Fuld does have the platoon advantage, so adjusting for handedness, he’s probably a little better than Soto. Not much, though, and definitely not better than guys like Reddick or Lowrie, who are hitting lower in the order.

Fuld fits the profile of the type of guy who often hits second in big league line-ups — limited power, good contact skills, some speed — but then again, so does Jed Lowrie, who is a better version of the same type of hitter, and Lowrie’s switch-hitting skills would fit into the #2 spot nicely. Lowrie is clearly a better hitter than Fuld, and so while the difference between hitting 2nd and 5th are minimal, it might feel like a big deal if the game ends with Fuld — or a pinch-hitter — batting at the end of the game while Lowrie remains in the dugout.

Of course, there’s also going to be a good amount of people who question whether Fuld should even be in the line-up to begin with. The A’s acquired Adam Dunn to give them some power against right-handers, and James Shields career weak point has been giving up home runs. One could make a decent case for starting Dunn over Fuld and using either Moss in the outfield, as the combination of Dunn’s bat and Moss’s glove is probably better overall than Fuld’s bat and Fuld’s glove, as excellent as the latter is.

I think I’m okay with that selection, though, because we can be basically certain that Dunn will be used as a pinch-hitter at some point during the game, so he’s not going to bat zero times tonight, and there is value in having him come off the bench in a high-leverage role, especially if he’s replacing a guy like Sogard or Soto at the plate, where the upgrade would be substantial. If you start Dunn at DH, then inserting Fuld as a defensive replacement forces either Moss, Reddick, or Vogt out of the game, so getting the value of his glove comes at the cost of removing a better player than Dunn, at least for the last few innings.

It could probably go either way, but I think that starting Fuld over Dunn is a reasonable selection. Hitting him second seems a little less reasonable, though.

Now for the Royals side of things, against LHP Jon Lester:

1. Alcides Escobar, SS, .287 wOBA
2. Nori Aoki, RF, .333 wOBA
3. Lorenzo Cain, CF, .310 wOBA
4. Eric Hosmer, 1B, .337 wOBA
5. Billy Butler, DH, .346 wOBA
6. Alex Gordon, LF, .345 wOBA
7. Salvador Perez, C, .318 wOBA
8. Omar Infante, 2B, .312 wOBA
9. Mike Moustakas, 3B, .314 wOBA

Again, we see the worst hitter in the line-up at the top of the order, which isn’t great. Then again, the Royals don’t have a ton of great options here, especially considering Lester’s handedness. Aoki, Hosmer, Gordon, and Moustakas are all left-handed, so the team already is giving up the platoon advantage in the 2/4/6 spots, and moving those guys up to dump Escobar to the bottom of the order might not help much. Infante projects as a better hitter than Escobar, but he had a pretty lousy season, so it’s understandable (if still not theoretically correct) that Yost isn’t going to trust him with a spot near the top of the order. Perez would be another option, but he’s a slow catcher, and very few managers are willing to hit a guy like that in the lead-off spot.

The Royals line-up just isn’t very good, which means that there aren’t very many good options available, and so batting Escobar first is at least defensible, though still not great. The bigger question probably comes with the guys in the line-up.

Eric Hosmer, for instance, is a mediocre hitter who had a lousy year and has never hit lefties particularly well; he’s hitting clean-up against a lefty in a lose-and-go-home game, while Josh Willingham — whose primary function as a Major Leaguer these days is to hit left-handed pitching — sits on the bench. Swapping out Hsomer’s bat for Willingham’s would make this line-up look a lot better, but it would also force Billy Butler into the field, which is a mitigating factor.

And, like with Dunn, it’s likely that Willingham will be available to pinch-hit later in the game, so the fact that he’s not starting doesn’t mean he’s a non-factor. Of course, if they started Willingham, than Hosmer could have been available to both pinch-hit and serve as a defensive substitute, so perhaps that would have been the theoretically best choice. Again, though, the move isn’t going to change the Royals odds dramatically. These are marginal differences.

But it might be pretty frustrating to watch Hosmer try to drive in runs against a left-hander with Billy Butler standing in the on-deck hole, especially with two outs. Butler has had an awful year, but he’s pretty clearly a better option against a lefty than Hosmer is, and just flipping those two might end have ended up being important. Splitting up lefties and righties can help combat the ability of the opposing manager from playing match-up games in high leverage situations, but if you have to get that split by giving up the platoon advantage the first three times through the order, I’m not sure it’s actually worth it.

We’ll find out in a few hours, though. Elimination baseball: bring it on.