AL Wild Card Game Live Blog

7:57
Jeff Sullivan: Time for someone’s dream to die! It’s the AL wild-card playoff!

7:58
Jeff Sullivan: A’s

7:58
Jeff Sullivan: A’s

7:59
Comment From Henry
Hey Mariners fans–your bandwagon team of the postseason?

7:59
Jeff Sullivan: For some reason I always end up pulling for the A’s. Dave’s hardly a Mariners fan and he can’t speak for himself yet

8:00
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
I’m on antibiotics and painkillers for an infection so I can’t drink so if you would drink extra for me it would be greatly appreciated.

8:00
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t drink on the job! Dave don’t drink!

8:00
Comment From brian
Your piece yesterday gave oak a 53 or 58% chance of winning based on the model. Today’s game projections give kc a 55% chance of winning. What causes the difference?

8:00
Jeff Sullivan: We have lineups now, and we’ve updated the depth charts

8:00
Jeff Sullivan: So far, people 62% in favor of Oakland, and 76% think Oakland will win

8:01
Comment From yancy
What are the odds Lester picks off the first baserunner in the 1st inning?

8:01
Comment From Gila Monster
Jon Lester fixed his curveball release point for the first time since 2010 resulting in his success this season. Why does it take so long to pick up a flaw and fix it?

8:01
Jeff Sullivan: I’m guessing that is an over-simplification

8:01
Comment From Jaack
True or False: Dayton Moore is not a terrible GM, just simply a below average one.

8:01
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s regress and go below-average

8:02
Comment From Brett Gardner
Is there a more annoying pre-playoffs story than the “This team fell apart when they lost Cespedes’s thump in the middle of the lineup!” I just cannot watch baseball analysis on TV anymore.

8:02
Jeff Sullivan: Technically that did happen. The problem is just linking the two

8:03
Comment From Ruki
I do remember a FanGraphs piece that suggested the trade could have at least affected them. Little things! Hard to figure out.

8:03
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, who really knows, right? It’s not inconceivable. It just feels like a hell of a stretch. We can’t rule it out 100%

8:04
Dave Cameron: Hey everyone. Who else is excited to see what song TBS forces us to hate this year?

8:04
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not the late chatter!

8:04
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
I’m surprised that more people aren’t rooting for the A’s.

8:04
Jeff Sullivan: The Royals have a weirdly heavy internet presence

8:04
Jeff Sullivan: Also, they’re so brand new

8:05
Comment From StillAtWork
Best radio to listen to the game on?

8:05
Jeff Sullivan: Your own or a friend’s

8:05
Dave Cameron: Plus everyone who hates Moneyball/sabermetrics is rooting for the Royals.

8:05
Jeff Sullivan: But why would they be in this chat?

8:05
Dave Cameron: Hoping to troll?

8:06
Jeff Sullivan: Whole Royals front office in here now, voting in polls

8:06
Comment From Dylan
Should I go the gym and watch the game or sit at home and have too much to drink and watch the game.

8:06
Dave Cameron: Poll time: should we support Dylan’s life or death?

8:06
Jeff Sullivan: Stay home and enjoy the first game. The playoffs are long and they get kind of tiring, so go to the gym next week

8:07
Comment From Lyle
Dave, are the awards ballots like actually physical ballots aka voting government voting ballots or do you just write down a few names on a random sheet of paper and send it in?

8:07
Dave Cameron: Online. The BBWAA might still use an AOL email, but the ballot was on the web. The HOF ballots are paper, though.

8:09
Comment From Guest
You say that Jeff. But I’ve done an EXTENSIVE amount of research. It keeps coming down to proper cutter movement(which Eno wrote about) and A consistent curveball release point. His curveball jumped from 29% to 40% whiffs/swing in one season. That is mediocre to elite.

8:09
Jeff Sullivan: Better cutter, better curve. Most of pitching improvement comes down to more consistent release points

8:09
Dave Cameron: Worth noting: Bill Miller, tonight’s home plate umpire, has an enormous strike zone.

8:09
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Lester will get the David Ross zone that he misses

8:10
Jeff Sullivan: My personal x factor of choice: the A’s are screwed if they’re trailing by the time it gets to Herrera/Davis. I think those will be easy outs on high heat

8:11
Jeff Sullivan: But they’ll roll Shields if he tries to throw too many low sinkers

8:11
Dave Cameron: James Shields does not have the best right-handed change-up in baseball.

8:11
Dave Cameron: But nice try, TBS announcer guy.

8:11
Comment From AJT
Who does have the best?

8:11
Dave Cameron: Felix.

8:11
Jeff Sullivan: FELIX

8:11
Jeff Sullivan: more caps, Dave

8:12
Dave Cameron: Felix!!!!!

8:12
Dave Cameron: Better?

8:12
Jeff Sullivan: Strasburg’s is also great

8:12
Comment From Morty
Player with the largest WPA in this game is…

8:12
Jeff Sullivan: Lester

8:12
Dave Cameron: One more ball and we can start calling him Low Yields Shields.

8:13
Jeff Sullivan: The way Gordon tracked that down made me think it was somehow over his head

8:13
Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
Looks like James Shields has turned into another ‘nerds vs. traditionalists’ point of contention

8:13
Jeff Sullivan: Nope, he just perfectly paced his pursuit

8:14
Dave Cameron: Which is funny, because he used to be the polar opposite. Scouts didn’t like him as a prospect, but nerds loved the numbers and change-up.

8:14
Comment From JB
Will you guys be doing live game blogs throughout the postseason? This is great!

8:14
Dave Cameron: We will do these all week, and then for elimination games, and then the whole World Series.

8:14
Jeff Sullivan: But it will not always be us

8:14
Dave Cameron: Truth.

8:15
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry/you’re welcome

8:15
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Get Carson!

8:15
Dave Cameron: I’m going to make him do one. You’ll regret asking for this.

8:16
Jeff Sullivan: Good takes here by Donaldson but Shields is missing about three or four inches too low

8:16
Dave Cameron: Alex Gordon range, example 1.

8:16
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t tell which one of us is ahead of the other

8:16
Dave Cameron: That wasn’t all that tough, but there’s some big league OFers who don’t get that one.

8:17
Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
Dave you’re either REALLY far behind or REALLY far ahead

8:17
Dave Cameron: Or maybe both.

8:17
Jeff Sullivan: No it’s not both

8:17
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see when Dave learns about that dinger

8:17
Dave Cameron: There’s a dinger coming????!!!!

8:17
Dave Cameron: I’m so far behind.

8:18
Jeff Sullivan: Bad low changeup, and Moss destroyed it

8:18
Jeff Sullivan: So Shields has missed low with the change, and he’s missed in the zone with the change. Great article, Jeff!

8:19
Jeff Sullivan: A homer, a line drive, and two well-struck balls to left field. Excellent start for the A’s, who might be in the process of killing Shields’ nickname for good

8:19
Dave Cameron: The inning just ended: true or false?

8:20
Jeff Sullivan: 30 seconds ago or so

8:20
Comment From AJT
true

8:20
Comment From Guest
false

8:20
Dave Cameron: So helpful.

8:20
Comment From BDF
I’m a temporary transplant to Pacific time. God I love these games beginning as soon as work is over. Thoughts?

8:20
Jeff Sullivan: When I started blogging about the Mariners I did so from Hartford, CT, and I recapped every game. The west coast is so so much better for sports.

8:20
Comment From Dan
This is going to be a classic pitching duel

8:20
Dave Cameron: Until the offseason, when you wake up and you’re like three trades and a free agent signing behind.

8:21
Jeff Sullivan: Good thing I don’t run my own baseball website!

8:21
Comment From C-Mesc
My non-American wife is having a lot of trouble understanding the no-talk-during-playoff-baseball-except-during-the-commercials rule. How do you handle it with Liberty, Dave?

8:21
Dave Cameron: I make Liberty talk to my wife, who also doesn’t understand this rule.

8:22
Jeff Sullivan: I hate when people try to connect with me on a personal level when I’m watching strangers play a game

8:23
Dave Cameron: There’s a time and place, Jeff.

8:23
Dave Cameron: Time and place.

8:23
Jeff Sullivan: I was being serious

8:23
Jeff Sullivan: I am very bad at interacting

8:23
Dave Cameron: I think they want to pitch Escobar down and in?

8:23
Dave Cameron: (Am I on the right at-bat yet?)

8:23
Jeff Sullivan: I think they want to pitch Escobar baseballs

8:23
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll do the rest

8:24
Comment From Ruki
If Shields stunk, would he get the nickname “Big Lame James”?

8:24
Jeff Sullivan: “More of the Same” James

8:24
Comment From Andy
How much did Moss’ HR raise the WP for the A’s?

8:24
Dave Cameron: A’s 67% to win now. http://www.fangraphs.com/li…

8:25
Dave Cameron: Jed Lowrie will be a second baseman for someone starting next year, I bet.

8:25
Jeff Sullivan: Nationals!

8:25
Dave Cameron: Interesting. Maybe.

8:26
Jeff Sullivan: Lester pick-off pump-fake!

8:26
Jeff Sullivan: That’s awesome!

8:26
Jeff Sullivan: Quite the emphatic signal at second

8:27
Dave Cameron: Not a good defensive start by the A’s infielders.

8:27
Jeff Sullivan: Boy are these teams differently structured

8:27
Dave Cameron: Is this the most opposite match-up of MLB teams possible this year?

8:28
Jeff Sullivan: Indians/Royals maybe?

8:28
Dave Cameron: Any team that can hit/Padres?

8:28
Jeff Sullivan: Tommy Medica is a baseball player!

8:29
Comment From Guest
any team with a bullpen vs. Tigers

8:29
Jeff Sullivan: There’s your stolen base No. 1

8:29
Comment From Morty
I think Ned Yost read your advice, Dave. Steal!

8:29
Jeff Sullivan: But, bad throw and a bad pitch to throw

8:29
Dave Cameron: Yes, me telling the team to lead the league in steals to steal is the reason that they stole.

8:30
Jeff Sullivan: Here’s the part where all our criticisms of the lineup look silly because Hosmer goes 2-for-3 with a walk and a dinger

8:30
Comment From Ruki
That was a frustrating time call.

8:31
Comment From Guest
How much does Shields owe his reputation to his momentous decision to stop going by “Jamie” like he did his rookie year?

8:31
Jeff Sullivan: That happened? My stars

8:31
Dave Cameron: Lets It Fester Lester

8:31
Jeff Sullivan: Soto getting handcuffed

8:32
Jeff Sullivan: Aces, am I right

8:32
Comment From Hank
Lester is a tempo pitcher? The tempo being slow as molasses?

8:32
Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact! Of all starting pitchers who played in both 2011 and 2014, Lester has gotten faster by the second-most

8:32
Jeff Sullivan: Only Beckett has gotten faster by more

8:32
Dave Cameron: Both left Boston…

8:33
Jeff Sullivan: I looked at this earlier this afternoon, that wasn’t just off the top of my head

8:34
Comment From benjamin
that’s two runs if brandon moss is in left field

8:34
Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s the most underrated part of OF defense right there.

8:34
Jeff Sullivan: Not a real bad pitch there, but leaked a little over the plate. Good swing by Butler

8:34
Dave Cameron: Also, can we trademark Puts Em On Jon now?

8:34
Jeff Sullivan: I love it

8:35
Jeff Sullivan: oh my god

8:35
Jeff Sullivan: PICKOFF

8:35
Jeff Sullivan: HE DID IT

8:35
Jeff Sullivan: What the hell was that about??!

8:35
Dave Cameron: Haha, baseball is so amazing.

8:36
Dave Cameron: 40 steals

8:36
Dave Cameron: Billy Butler is the absolute poster child for “can hit, still sucks”

8:36
Jeff Sullivan: Just incredible. So so incredible

8:36
Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
JEFF SPOILERS

8:37
Jeff Sullivan: Serious question: is this a problem? Should I delay myself?

8:37
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know how I’m so far ahead

8:37
Dave Cameron: Are you from the future?

8:37
Jeff Sullivan: No, just Oregon

8:38
Dave Cameron: I think the potential for spoilers is part-and-parcel of being in a live blog. Don’t change.

8:38
Jeff Sullivan: All right, but I’m open to being convinced otherwise later on

8:38
Comment From Jaack
So in the future… there is no self-serve gasoline?

8:38
Jeff Sullivan: it’s the best

8:39
Jeff Sullivan: What the hell was Butler doing

8:39
Dave Cameron: Butler is barely a baseball player.

8:39
Jeff Sullivan: Billy Butler in a deliberate rundown?

8:40
Jeff Sullivan: His nickname is a meal!!

8:40
Dave Cameron: A pretty delicious one, to be fair.

8:40
Jeff Sullivan: Not one that leaves you wanting to be active for the rest of the day

8:41
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
What distinguishes a country breakfast from a normal breakfast

8:41
Dave Cameron: More pig.

8:41
Jeff Sullivan: Hosmer justifying his start

8:41
Comment From Jim
Butler strikes me as a Billy Beane signing this winter. Agree?

8:41
Dave Cameron: Lowrie looks like some kind of mediocre Bond villain.

8:41
Jeff Sullivan: Zduriencik. I think Dave agrees

8:42
Dave Cameron: Butler will be a Mariner. I’d bet so much on it.

8:42
Jeff Sullivan: They got Yuni, we get Butler. At last, fruition

8:43
Comment From C-Mesc
Did that Lester stat from earlier today mean that he literally had not thrown over to first even once?

8:43
Jeff Sullivan: Not once in 2014. Don’t know about pump-fakes

8:43
Comment From Fletch
Do pitchers tend to dial it up a little in the playoffs? Or do broadcasts/stadiums mess with the radar readings a little?

8:43
Dave Cameron: October velo is usually up a little bit, but velo climbs on average all season.

8:43
Jeff Sullivan: I think the most interesting thing is how pitchers dial it up with 2 strikes

8:44
Comment From Orgfiller
The KC gun is usually a bit hot I would say.

8:44
Dave Cameron: Also true.

8:44
Jeff Sullivan: Is that still true?

8:44
Jeff Sullivan: I remember that from like 2009

8:44
Dave Cameron: I think it is, yes.

8:45
Jeff Sullivan: I remember when PITCHf/x first started you sent me a very excited email about Johnny Cueto. Man we were happy

8:45
Dave Cameron: We still take PITCHF/x for granted. It’s incredible.

8:45
Dave Cameron: I used to chart games by hand!

8:45
Jeff Sullivan: Until it’s gone and I’m a terrible writer

8:46
Jeff Sullivan: Remember release point analysis?

8:46
Jeff Sullivan: what were we even doing

8:46
Jeff Sullivan: There’s a generous strikeout call

8:46
Dave Cameron: Bill Miller special.

8:47
Comment From Guest
I know it’s difficult to talk unscripted for three hours, but it’s embarrassing how poorly prepared most national announcers are

8:47
Comment From Guest
Are pitcher’s FIP inflated by catcher framing?

8:47
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’re poorly prepared. They’re very prepared. They’re just prepared with…different…information…

8:47
Dave Cameron: The ones who had to throw to Ryan Doumits, especially.

8:47
Jeff Sullivan: Vance Worley on the Twins. In retrospect, why did that ever try to happen?

8:48
Comment From KK-Swizzle
Sogard…most hipster player in the league? And in playing style and actual style!

8:48
Dave Cameron: Barry Zito?

8:48
Jeff Sullivan: Not in any league!

8:48
Jeff Sullivan: There’s an awesome changeup to end the frame

8:49
Dave Cameron: Well it wasn’t very close to the zone, in fairness.

8:49
Dave Cameron: A better hitter probably doesn’t chase it

8:49
Dave Cameron: ?

8:49
Jeff Sullivan: Seemed pretty close to me and PITCHf/x, and it was a 1-and-2 count

8:50
Comment From bucs_lose_again
Seriously…why do I have to choose one camera angle on MLB.tv? Anyone else having this issue?

8:50
Jeff Sullivan: Would’ve hugged the corner until the break ran it away

8:50
Dave Cameron: Because TBS/Fox bought the postseason rights.

8:51
Comment From Guest
Lowrie looks a lot bigger since he’s left Boston

8:51
Dave Cameron: Updating Win Expectancy: A’s now 57% to win. http://www.fangraphs.com/li…

8:51
Jeff Sullivan: He’s actually just surrounded by smaller players because Oakland can’t afford to pay normal-sized ones

8:51
Comment From Ruki
If Butler does become a Mariner, does his nickname move to a more fish-based meal?

8:51
Jeff Sullivan: DP BB

8:52
Dave Cameron: Fish Fry?

8:52
Comment From Grandpa Cistulli
Win Expectancy doesn’t factor in the great end of game relievers KC has, right?

8:52
Dave Cameron: Correct: WPA knows nothing about the players in the game, just the score/inning/base/out situations.

8:53
Comment From Guest
Are Shield’s strikeouts actually suppressed? By per pitch metrics, he is close to career high levels in most of his pitches for whiffs.

8:54
Jeff Sullivan: 19% this year, 24% a couple years ago

8:54
Comment From Accountability
Any sports writers who universally panned the Myers/Shields trade because the Royals weren’t close enough to contention issuing a mea culpa?

8:54
Jeff Sullivan: There was a hell of a lot more to it than that

8:55
Dave Cameron: And it was still a bad trade.

8:55
Jeff Sullivan: As things stand the Shields era will have bought the Royals one extra baseball game

8:55
Dave Cameron: In which he posted an ERA of 9.00.

8:55
Jeff Sullivan: I like how in 2014 it was more the Davis/Odorizzi trade

8:55
Dave Cameron: I feel like if you have to get out of the way of the pitch as you swing, you shouldn’t swing.

8:56
Jeff Sullivan: Remember when Erick Aybar swung at a pitch that hit him flush in the nards

8:56
Dave Cameron: I do not!

8:56
Dave Cameron: I want to though.

8:56
8:57
Dave Cameron: Well I know what I’ll be watching on loop all night.

8:57
Jeff Sullivan: Like, flush, in the nards.

8:58
Comment From Doctor Hoist
VOYA has the A’s at 75%!

8:59
Dave Cameron: Voya Financial: Sponsor of useless stats.

8:59
Jeff Sullivan: gif version http://assets.sbnation.com/…

8:59
Comment From KK-Swizzle
My favorite is when vintage Verlander would cruise at 92-94 for 5 innings, then slowly dial it up to 99 by the 8th!

8:59
Jeff Sullivan: Now that I understand more about how the A”s target low fastballs, I totally get why Verlander just tore them to bits

8:59
Dave Cameron: That was a good change-up.

8:59
Dave Cameron: In the zone and nasty.

8:59
Jeff Sullivan: Soto hurt!

9:00
Dave Cameron: The A’s have like 19 catchers and they’re all hurt.

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: Soto’s done, hurt thumb, Norris in. Worse defender

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: If there’s any advantage it’s his familiarity with Lester. Also hitting

9:01
Comment From C-Mesc
Gamekeeper’s thumb for those interested: http://en.wikipedia.org/wik… . Has to do with Scottish fowl.

9:02
Comment From Catoblepas
Is Shields uniquely poorly-suited for the As? Really high strike rate, but really low zone rate — needs batters to chase.

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: A righty groundballer would have a problem

9:02
Dave Cameron: Rick Porcello then.

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, that’ll work

9:02
Comment From Wally
True or false: there isn’t one position player in today’s game that would start for the Nationals?

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Shields at 55 pitches, one out in the third

9:03
Dave Cameron: Super false. Donaldson at 3B, Rendon to 2B. Gordon in LF, Werth or Harper to CF.

9:03
Comment From Pat
If you could see Pitch F/X for any pitcher in history, who would it be?

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Koufax?

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: And right there is the kind of break a game can turn on. Line drive! Two outs! Sorry about your process and results, Oakland

9:04
Dave Cameron: This is not a baserunning clinic.

9:04
Dave Cameron: Unless it’s the kind of clinic that treats people that are not healthy.

9:04
Comment From Craig
Sal Perez also stars over Ramos

9:04
Dave Cameron: That too.

9:04
Comment From Hank
Best guess on where Lester and Shields end up next year?

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: I’m giving this one to Dave to answer

9:06
Dave Cameron: I’d guess Shields ends up in Boston (4/75 or something), and Lester signs with some crazy pants team that wants to make a splash. Orioles, maybe.

9:06
Comment From Fletch
Does Lester get $150 million?

9:06
Dave Cameron: I think so, yeah. Maybe over 7 instead of over 6 like Greinke.

9:07
Comment From Guest
Was looking up BsR for reference of just how awful a baserunner Billy Butler is (he’s dead last over last 3 years), and was very surprised to see Nori Aoki if 5th worst. He really sticks out on the list of terrible baserunners.

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: I’m trying to figure this one out

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: According to Baseball-Reference, he was average this year. According to us, -10 runs somehow?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Consider me confused

9:07
Comment From benjamin
hey you guys, mike moustakas just got a hit

9:08
Comment From Theo
Sounds like an article in the making

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: A BUNT

9:08
Dave Cameron: I’m shocked. Shocked.

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: a…probably justifiable bunt, kind of, since Escobar blows. but he’s batting leadoff, so, I mean-

9:08
Dave Cameron: To be fair, Escobar sucks.

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: I just…

9:08
Dave Cameron: Or what Jeff said.

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Another late timeout. This is silly

9:09
Comment From Grandpa Cistulli
Not saying Ned Yost will do this (we all know he won’t), but how early would you go to the Davis/Holland combo?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: I like Herrera in this game too

9:10
Dave Cameron: You should get 12 from those 3.

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Agree

9:11
Comment From KK-Swizzle
Why not 15-18?

9:11
Dave Cameron: Probably don’t want them throwing more than 30-40 pitches each.

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Aoki must be so annoying to face

9:12
Dave Cameron: I wonder how many of these kinds of players Japan has.

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: We could start seeing a lot more since it seems like they’re a little more difficult to shift

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: If they spray the ball everywhere, they could be a bigger part of the new baseball to come

9:13
Dave Cameron: And they seem to come pretty cheap, relative to their performance.

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: BOOM! Even!

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Forget talking about Japanese players. Cain got jammed and he still hammered that pitch

9:14
Dave Cameron: It feels like maybe Lester needs to throw something besides first pitch cutters in to right-handers?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: I think that was an actual fastball. But that means it would’ve run back to the plate

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Tie broken!

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Everybody in the crowd looks like Billy Butler

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Oakland’s inning ends with a line drive DP. Kansas City gets an RBI blooper from a lefty batting cleanup

9:15
Dave Cameron: Was Fuld playing way too deep there?

9:15
Dave Cameron: Hard to tell from TV.

9:15
Dave Cameron: But it seemed like he was playing very deep.

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: All but four Lester pitches have been cutters or fastballs

9:17
Comment From Jimmy
If you were taking a shot every time they said ‘Big Game’ James, you’d be drunk by now

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: It doesn’t take many shots to get drunk

9:17
Comment From Chris
How does Felix own the A’s so much with how many low fastballs he throws?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Low changeups

9:18
Comment From Guest
More disappointing player: Hosmer or Moustakas?

9:18
Dave Cameron: I’d say Hosmer. Mosutakas’ case was always a bit flimsy.

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: I honestly forgot that Bleacher Report is still a business

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Thanks for the reminder, TBS

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Lorenzo Cain this year: 5 WAR

9:20
Comment From Jessie
Where can I see Win Probability per pitch?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t exist

9:21
Dave Cameron: “The A’s do not swing at bad pitches.” /swings at bad pitch.

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: /3-1 count

9:21
Comment From Guest
Neither ace has been very effective in this game.

9:21
Comment From Guest
Shutdown innings must be a TBS talking point. Never head any announcer talks about it anywhere else ever

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: See how aces are overrated

9:21
Dave Cameron: The Texas guys talk about it a lot.

9:22
Comment From TJ
On ESPN pregame, David Ross said Cain was just the kind of hitter that gave Lester trouble. Good call

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: How’d he explain?

9:22
Dave Cameron: Lowrie with a home run swing but lacks home run power.

9:23
Dave Cameron: Take some PEDs, Jed.

9:23
Comment From Kris
As it stands, Oakland gave up Addison Russell to play one more baseball game with a pitcher who has a 9 ERA

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Probably shouldn’t have lost twice as often as they won down the stretch

9:23
Dave Cameron: Addison Russell went to the Cubs, and they’ll still have Samardzija next year.

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: I’d give Shields one more inning and go to the pen. Yost will presumably give him two more innings

9:24
Comment From Ruki
To be fair, they had Shields for next year at the time too. Not saying it necessarily changes anything but both trades had Shields/Samard respectively get 2 years.

9:24
Dave Cameron: A’s already knew they were contenders in year one when they made their move, though.

9:25
Dave Cameron: Royals just wanted to be.

9:25
Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
I know I’m supposed to feel good for KC, but I hate the way they play. It’s all late timeouts and bloop hits

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: It’s actually all awesome defense and relief pitching

9:25
Comment From DeGroms Hair
Would the Angels have a pretty easy time with the Royals?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: No one in the playoffs would have an easy time with anyone

9:26
Dave Cameron: It is kind of fun that the team that is anti-sabermetric is also the team doing the most to prove that defensive metrics aren’t bunk.

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Turns out scouts and stats like a lot of the same things

9:26
Comment From Only potatoes
Lorenzo cain 4.8BB% 21K%

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Adam Jones is good

9:27
Dave Cameron: And Carlos Gomez.

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Cain’s not as good as them, but he’s really coming on

9:27
Dave Cameron: And Starling Marte.

9:27
Dave Cameron: This is a pretty common skillset for speedy OFs now.

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Boy did Marte finish awesome this year

9:28
Comment From RSF
Can we talk about how super random a single game of baseball can be? Moss rips the heck out of a ball and it leads to an inning ending double play. Cain rips the heck out of a ball and gets ans RBI double (and then scores on a weakly hit ball).

9:28
Dave Cameron: Maybe not the best pitch to swing at, there.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: I think we always make a point of talking about that

9:29
Comment From Todd
Does home field advantage matter more in winner take all games?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t believe that’s been demonstrated. And if I recall, HFA is same in playoffs as in season

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Lester has a curve now. Overlaps with Norris’ substitution. Huh

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Back on pace for a 3-hour baseball game or so

9:30
Dave Cameron: The curve seems to be working better than the cutter, based on a sample of this inning.

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Low pitch count for Lester, if anyone cares about that

9:31
Comment From baseball is fun imo
If you were Ned Yost, how much longer would you stick with Shields? What about Melvin and Lester?

9:31
Dave Cameron: I would go to the pen now if I was KC, push Lester another inning or so.

9:31
Comment From KK-Swizzle
Have you all ever thought about running a live audio commentary during some of these games? Would that even be legal? I, for one, would gladly mute the TV and listen to Dave and Jeff instead!

9:32
Dave Cameron: That’s why MLB says the “accounts and descriptions of this game” thing in every broadcast.

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Believe that’s not legal

9:32
Comment From DeGroms Hair
How long do you think Yost WILL keep Shields in, given the current score?

9:32
Dave Cameron: Two more innings.

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Definitely two more innings

9:32
Dave Cameron: You don’t believe anything is definite, except this?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I believe I’m definitely uncomfortable watching Viagra commercials

9:33
Dave Cameron: If that lasts more than four hours…

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: My doctor’s out of the office.

9:33
Comment From RSF
Why are so many writers (even seemingly intelligent ones) claiming now that the Royals proved them wrong on the Shields trade? A low probability happened to hit. Let’s not reason from an unlikely result to a conclusion about the process.

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Some people genuinely believe they were proven wrong, others want to convey the impression of accountability, others want attention/traffic

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: And it’s an easy talking point that might not be relevant after today

9:34
Comment From Adam
I think people prefer good results to good process.

9:34
Dave Cameron: Also this.

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Imagine if Myers hadn’t been injured this season

9:35
Comment From Ben Oglivie
Am I reading the MLB.tv options correctly, without cable, the only way i can watch NL playoff games is 90 minutes after they’re over???

9:35
Dave Cameron: Or you can move out of the country.

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Feel free to check in at any moment, Derek Norris

9:36
Comment From someone
What did Yost just call Shields?

9:36
Dave Cameron: Sounds like “wago” or something to me.

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: juego

9:36
Dave Cameron: That makes more sense.

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Game in Spanish. Alternate Shields nickname

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Crisp mad about a called strike just as bad as the first pitch he swung at

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Shields is going to benefit more from area down in the corners than Lester

9:38
Comment From Fronk
Why dont you two do a twitch stream?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: a what

9:39
Dave Cameron: is there really a demand to watch Jeff and I talk? I think there would not be.

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: I know I wouldn’t want to watch it

9:39
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Swing

9:39
Dave Cameron: Disagree.

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Who even knows, it’s such a dumb rule

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: KC should be taking a lead to the bullpen right now. They won’t, but they’re in that position

9:40
Comment From Guest
Given the unpredictability of baseball (as you said – in the playoffs, it’s a crapshoot) do you like the one-game wild card playoffs? Is one game enough to determine which of the two wild card teams moves on? (Keep in mind the world series will be on oct 21-29 this year)

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Love it. Whole month’s random. Embrace the noise

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: There’s no way for a tournament format to identify a “deserving” winner that satisfies statistical thresholds

9:42
Comment From DeGroms Hair
Was Jake Odorozzi that much worse than Shields? Especially considering contract/years under control?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Odorizzi was really good, but then there’s the Davis factor. Who the Royals knew would be an ace reliever so much they made him a starter

9:42
Comment From Guest
After that inning, you still think the royals should turn it over to the bullpen in the 6th? Shields seems like he’s settling into a grove…

9:42
Dave Cameron: Recent performance isn’t predictive. This is maybe the most important lesson sabermetrics can teach.

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Here’s where I’m at: I think it’s fair to say Shields was in a groove in the 5th, but I don’t at all believe that means he comes back out of the dugout in a groove in the 6th

9:43
Dave Cameron: I’d say we can only identify “grooves” in hindsight.

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s the most comfortable compromise between stat people and playing people

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Another good curve

9:44
Comment From Brendan
Should Yost honestly go to Crow in the 6th? (FIP)

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Herrera

9:44
Dave Cameron: Herrera/Davis/Holland for four, play on Thursday.

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Middle of the order is due up. Give up a home run and then what do you have?

9:45
Dave Cameron: A tie, Jeff. It’s called a tie.

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Oh, right

9:46
Comment From Park Chan hos Beard
it may seem silly to read live chats after the fact, but there are often a couple good nuggets of info/commentary to be found. Any chance the CiL issue is fixed with really long transcripts so that I can read the whole thing if I happen to miss a game (I almost definitely will)?

9:46
Dave Cameron: Ventura warming up. Interesting. He’d probably make an amazing reliever too.

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: I’m guessing it is not fixed

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Ventura is a perfect matchup for the Royals against the A’s lineup. I’d actually like him over Shields

9:47
Comment From Neil
A’s have chances for better match ups later on in the game?

9:47
Dave Cameron: No, the match-ups only get harder against KC.

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: A’s have already squandered their best chance to do something. They needed to get to the bullpen at least even.

9:48
Dave Cameron: Yep. Best chance to win was to get a lead and hold on. This will be harder.

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: What’s the win expectancy now?

9:49
Comment From Park Chan hos Beard
isn’t “get a lead and hold on” always the best chance to win?

9:49
Dave Cameron: Touche.

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: not against the Tigers

9:50
Comment From Grandpa Cistulli
If they really are simply giving Ventura work so that he’ll be ready for the DS, they are just asking for Karma to give them an extra inning game.

9:50
Dave Cameron: They carried Guthrie too.

9:50
Dave Cameron: So they’d have him for a super long contest.

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Officially still Shields

9:51
Dave Cameron: Of course.

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Fuld getting credit for being able to handle the bat. It’s like, finally, a hitter who can do that

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Deserved a broken-bat hit

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: “A postgame…a post-series game…”

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: That pitch is why the A’s won’t hit high fastballs later in this game

9:52
Comment From Guest
What pitcher would be hurt the most if umpires started calling the actual strike zone again?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: The Padres

9:53
Comment From Hank
If recent performance isn’t predictive… should you pull a pitcher who has given up a bunch of runs? (assuming pitch count is not high and you aren’t on the 3rd time through the lineup)

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Not if his stuff is ok

9:53
Comment From Guest
Will people ever stop complaining about the shift?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Eventually we’ll just refer to it as “defense”

9:54
Dave Cameron: Donaldson has swung through some meatballs.

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: low-ball hitter! low-ball hitter!

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Bullpen aaaaaaany time now

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: I bet Shields gets that strike if Perez doesn’t try to throw down

9:55
Dave Cameron: Probably, yes.

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Wow, I love this decision

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Kudos to Yost. Should’ve opened the sixth like this, but I like going to Ventura now

9:56
Dave Cameron: One inning of Ventura is probably going to be amazingly hard to hit.

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: I think Moss and Reddick both whiff on 99+ upstairs

9:56
Dave Cameron: Though David Schoenfield just noted that Ventura threw 73 pitches on Sunday, so…

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: He’s Randy Johnson in 1995!

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: He’s just like Randy Johnson!

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Bullpen day, right? So he would’ve been throwing no matter what

9:57
Dave Cameron: I think bullpen day is two days after start, no?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: (I don’t remember)

9:57
Comment From A
I’d go Duffy here.

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: wait, it is two days after a start

9:58
Dave Cameron: Duffy might be an interesting pick too.

9:58
Dave Cameron: He’s death to LHBs.

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: I’d like Duffy too

9:58
Dave Cameron: Or, you know, Wade Davis.

9:58
Dave Cameron: Who is okay.

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: welp

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Joke’s on me!

9:59
Dave Cameron: Brandon Moss.

9:59
Dave Cameron: Ruben Amaro is still not sure Brandon Moss can hit a fastball.

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: I loved the idea of Ventura pumping high fastballs. He threw a low fastball.

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: He threw exactly the pitch he couldn’t throw there. So I’m…redeemed? Whatever. Moss!

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: I guess this is the part where we all say in retrospect it should’ve been Davis in the high-leverage inning

10:00
Dave Cameron: Well I’m pretty sure we know what the storyline of this game is now.

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: /rattled

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: oh boy

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Low fastball. What do you know?

10:02
Comment From Boston Phan
Maybe he should stop throwing low fastballs

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: IT’S THEIR WHOLE STRATEGY TO HIT THEM

10:02
Dave Cameron: There is now a very good chance that the Royals three dominant relievers will not pitch in a game in which their team had the lead in the 6th inning.

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Let the record show, for me: I was fine with Ventura here. He threw a very bad pitch.

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: I also would’ve been fine with Herrera or Duffy or Davis

10:03
Dave Cameron: I think there was some logic to putting Ventura in here, but there was logic in putting in like eight other guys too.

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah. And whoever should’ve just opened the inning

10:04
Dave Cameron: Jed Lowrie with another HR swing that goes 250 feet.

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Would’ve been a nice showcase of the trade to go from Shields to Davis in this inning

10:05
Dave Cameron: I actually feel a little bad for Yost. He’s going to get destroyed for that decision, when it wasn’t indefensible. But he had defensible moves that were probably just as good, so…

10:06
Comment From Gabe
FIP vs. lefties: Davis, 1.59; Herrera, 1.99; Holland, 2.35; Duffy, 2.92; Ventura, 3.72

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Ventura in relief

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Duffy in relief

10:07
Dave Cameron: Ventura in relief on short rest?

10:07
Dave Cameron: We just don’t know enough.

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Davis is the best they’ve got. Easy to say now they should’ve used the best in the sixth. I think going to Ventura didn’t swing the odds that much, but obviously now it was a disaster

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Yost made neither a bad decision nor the best decision. Because of results, he’ll get blame, instead of Ventura for throwing a low fastball in the middle

10:09
Comment From C-Mesc
Opinion on Darling’s point about asking players to excel in situations they’re not used to? How do we model that, is it possible or are all the sample sizes too small?

10:09
Dave Cameron: It’s basically impossible.

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how to model that. I think the point of managers is to make sure you’re using players when they’re comfortable. By now, Yost should know what Ventura can and can’t mentally do.

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: If Yost thought that was fine, we probably just believe him

10:10
Comment From Morty
Brandon Moss’ WPA: .435

10:10
Comment From Da Bear
Maybe that’s why the A’s didn’t start Adam Dunn. Now he’s avaiable to pitch the 6th!

10:11
Comment From David
There’s no research on whether the relief bonus sets in immediately or after some lag?

10:11
Dave Cameron: There’s no way to test whether it applies to guys who threw 75 pitches two days ago.

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Norris RBI on the low fastball

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: I know this probably sounds like a talking point for me but I’m really big on it

10:12
Dave Cameron: Billy Butler’s baserunning blunder hurt Soto, which meant that Norris could get that RBI after replacing him. This is all Butler’s fault.

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Billy Butler’s Baserunning Blunder is fun to say out loud

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: At least that time it was a high fastball

10:13
Comment From Cole W
This looks like the A’s of the first half

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Royals getting creamed because of the bullpen. Geez

10:14
Dave Cameron: It’s almost like recent performance isn’t predictive!

10:14
Comment From bucs_lose_again
Who is doing the chat tomorrow evening?

10:14
Dave Cameron: Jeff’s back, only with Paul as his sidekick.

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Then Dave gets the later game Thursday

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know who’s on earlier Thursday duty

10:15
Dave Cameron: I’m earlier Thursday, actually. With August. Then Wendy and David Temple at night.

10:15
Comment From Sam
Will the narrative tomorrow be about taking Shields out or which pitcher came in?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: And then there’s a Friday marathon and we’ll see about that

10:15
Dave Cameron: The only story will be “rookie starter who just pitched”

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: It is so unbelievably easy to write the alternative narrative had Ventura gotten out of the jam

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: “Yost looked into Ventura’s eyes and saw what no one else could see. Yost saw a lion.”

10:17
Comment From ralph
There were definitely people on Twitter openly questioning the Ventura move before he even threw his first pitch.

10:17
Dave Cameron: Well, yes, but was it for the right reasons, or “he’s a rookie”?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Yost picked one of his flame-throwers, is what he did

10:18
Comment From Guest
And some logic to keeping in Shields, too. Not sure I understand why he was pulled.

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Third time through the lineup

10:19
Comment From Matt
Ventura was getting ready before the inning. Could they have gotten Davis ready in time once they saw it was a high leverage situation?

10:19
Dave Cameron: Keeping in Shields would have been worse.

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Good question. I’m not sure how quickly he warms up, but if you figure he, at earliest, gets up after the broken-bat single, then you’re talking about warming up during one AB

10:20
Comment From Laurence
Darling, said it best….”why do managers choose this time of year to do things they’ve never done before?”….Ventura, had no business coming in right after Shields. The look on his face told me he didnt want any parts of that spot in the game, 2 on, no outs. This is a kid we’re talkin about here, who wasnt ready for that kind of pressure. That broke their backs, right there…A’s, going to Anaheim.

10:20
Dave Cameron: We’re just going to ignore Tim Lincecum, Dominant October Reliever then?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Halt! I have found precedent!

10:22
Comment From Joe
So now we base decisions on one outlier data point? Come on, Dave.

10:22
Dave Cameron: Please show me all the evidence that very good starters don’t pitch well in relief in October.

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Derek Holland threw 50 pitches on 10/3/12. Came in in relief of Yu Darvish in the WC game on 10/5/12

10:22
Dave Cameron: I remember him being good. How is my memory?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: ehh

10:23
Dave Cameron: Figures.

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: WP, single, strikeout

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: But, this has happened, is the bigger point, even though Holland wasn’t a rookie

10:23
Comment From Ryan
Dave, it’s fair for you to ask for the evidence, but citing Lincecum is not evidence for your point.

10:23
Dave Cameron: My point is “we don’t know enough”.

10:23
Dave Cameron: I’m simply arguing that everyone saying it was obviously the wrong call don’t have the evidence to support that.

10:24
Dave Cameron: It was obviously not the best call. Was it obviously a disaster waiting to happen? I don’t know. I don’t think you do either.

10:24
Comment From CrustyJuggler
Curveball!

10:25
Comment From bucs_lose_again
“I don’t think you do either.” I could say just as easily that I don’t think you know leaving Shields out there would have definitely been worse.

10:25
Dave Cameron: I have plenty of data to back that up. If you can provide data to back up your claims, I’ll believe you too.

10:26
Comment From Nuke LaLooshs left eyelid
i think the argument isn’t whether or not Ventura was a disaster waiting to happen, but rather he was an unnecessary risk given the quality relievers in that bullpen

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: By the way, the Royals didn’t score in that inning

10:26
Dave Cameron: If that’s the argument, I agree. Argued all day for 12 outs from their big three.

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: For what it’s worth, Kelvin Herrera came in and allowed three hits

10:26
Dave Cameron: The question is if Yost said that was absolutely not an option, was Venura a worthy risk relative to other options not named Herrera/Davis/Holland.

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: I liked the question of getting ready in time once that was recognized as a high-leverage inning. There was a single, then a walk, then the home run

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Not a lot of time there, so I doubt it would’ve been Davis?

10:29
Comment From Tucker
What potential playoff series would most excite you?

10:29
Dave Cameron: I think Nats-Os would be a lot of fun.

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Pirates-O’s…Pirates-A’s…

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Moss whiffs on the high fastball

10:32
Comment From Boston Phan
Is there any way to see if Lester’s pitch selection has been different with Norris? It seems he was much more FB heavy with Soto, more curves with Norris. Then again, maybe that was Lester’s plan all along.

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Difference is, pitch mixes change as you get deeper anyhow

10:33
Comment From KK-Swizzle
Announcers talking about the trade affecting the A’s offense as fact…SOOOOO sick of hearing about the “importance of a ‘run-producer'” in the middle of the lineup

10:33
Dave Cameron: The Mariners paid Robinson Cano to provide a legitimate big bat in their lineup and scored 10 more runs.

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Probably in part because of the other big bats they tried to put in their lineup

10:35
Comment From Guest
Speaking of evidence of pitching stuff…is there much/any evidence that “playoff experience” means a darned thing?

10:35
Dave Cameron: Zero.

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: whoopsadoodle

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: That was a weird time for that remark to submit itself

10:36
Comment From Hank
The warmup is almost always the overlooked sticking point on the Nintendo utilization of relievers (use the best pitcher in the high leverage situations) – there are times when this is doable and times when there aren’t. And there are times where you get your relief ace up and down multiple times and wear them out in the pen as the game toggles from high to low and vice versa.

10:36
Comment From Tucker
I completely support the assertion that playoff experience does not matter, but could you point to some research on the subject? I’d enjoy the read

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Part of why relievers like set roles

10:36
Dave Cameron: Ben Lindbergh just linked to some on his piece on Grantland last week.

10:37
Comment From Mike
Max Scherzer in the 8th of game 4 against the A’s last year…he was pretty good

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: That was 3 days’ rest

10:37
Comment From Brian
Did Holland inherit runners?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:38
Comment From Miguel
So if this is it for the Royals, what is their off-season priority?

10:38
Dave Cameron: They’re going to try to find some better hitters.

10:38
Comment From Grandpa Cistulli
Ok, time to critique Melvin. When do you go to relievers? Doolittle?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Wade Davis is about to cost $7 million

10:38
Dave Cameron: Soonish.

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Thing about Lester and the KC lineup is it’s so underwhelming and he’s at the bottom. But still, bullpen soon

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Ventura now being accused of overthrowing, instead of just naturally throwing a bazillion

10:41
Comment From DTSS
Davey Johnson brought in Jordan Zimmermann and Edwin Jackson in games 4 and 5 of 2012 NLDS. Zimm worked out great, Jackson not so much. Both were starters pitching on their bullpen days.

10:41
Comment From Grandpa Cistulli
Jim Bowden is really ripping into Yost on Twitter. What a guy!

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Jim Bowden is a disaster

10:42
Comment From Joe
I mean, bazillion is a pretty awesome fastball.

10:42
Dave Cameron: Not if you’re the catcher.

10:42
Comment From guest
can we use a starter’s performance for the first time thru a lineup as a proxy for how they would preform as a reliever?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Not quite. Stuff still plays up

10:43
Dave Cameron: We could use that as something of a baseline, though, and then assume that they should be even slightly better, probably.

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I like it

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Lester should definitely be done now

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: I get leaving him in for the bottom, but now the lineup’s turning over

10:44
Dave Cameron: Agree. Four run lead feels safe, but could disappear quickly.

10:44
Comment From Mark
How far do the A’s have to advance for the Cespedes narrative to finally go away?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Honestly I think it should mostly be dead now. They advanced, and they’re advancing (probably)

10:45
Dave Cameron: But he won the HR derby twice.

10:45
Dave Cameron: You can’t replace that.

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners replaced that!

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Mike Cameron: better than Ken Griffey Jr. at the time of the trade!

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: or something

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Wade Davis, four-run deficit. A snarkier version of me would love this

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Just realized I haven’t heard a word the broadcasters have said for like 4 innings

10:48
Comment From bucs_lose_again
Jeff: Do you choose the Pirates in both scenarios because you feel they are the most exciting NL team left you watch? Or is your choice narrative driven?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: I like the crowd noise

10:48
Comment From I dont want to meet
a snarkier version of Jeff Sullivan

10:48
Dave Cameron: It’s called August Fagerstrom.

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Big Game James Shields has a 5.26 career playoff ERA

10:49
Comment From Tucker
2014 playoff team most likely to finish under .500 next year?

10:49
Dave Cameron: The Royals.

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Yep

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: So if the Royals lose they didn’t make it to October after all

10:51
Comment From Rey
To prevent not having a reliever ready in high leverage spots, managers should always have someone warming up in the pen past the 6th inning in the playoffs, regardless of the situation. True or false?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Relievers don’t like warming and sitting

10:51
Comment From Guest
royals get a 2015 revenue bumpt from this ‘playoff;?

10:51
Dave Cameron: Pirates attendance went up this year, so, maybe?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: there is a show called Selfie

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: I am so out of touch with television.

10:52
Comment From Guest
Pirates got to NLDS game 5 and had a winning team this year.

10:52
Dave Cameron: Fair.

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Pirates payroll this year went up about $5 million

10:53
Comment From Compton
Pirates payroll this year went up by Edison Volquez.

10:53
Dave Cameron: Lester still in.

10:53
Dave Cameron: He should be on a very, very short leash.

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Orioles payroll went up about $8 million after their first berth

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Okay remove Lester

10:54
Comment From Neil
WPA for putting on the rally caps?

10:54
Comment From DeGroms Hair
Lowrie hasn’t had the best defensive showcase tonight

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think Jed Lowrie wants to play any more baseball

10:55
Comment From just tuned in
could this be even worse for royals fans than not making the “playoffs” at all?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Nah, you can’t erase the joy of reaching this level. They achieved something

10:55
Dave Cameron: This has to be Lester’s last batter.

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Without question. He’s even reached the magic 100

10:56
Comment From Robert
Stealing down by four. Ned Yost learns from nothing.

10:56
Dave Cameron: Stealing on Norris is probably worth the minimal risk.

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Imagine if that got by Sogard

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: I also doubt Lester is really caring too much about one baserunner with a four-run lead

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Remove him Bob

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Remove him Bob…

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Bob, remove this pitcher

10:57
Comment From Danny
Is Bob Melvin about to go all Grady Little on us?

10:57
Dave Cameron: This is nutty.

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: jesus

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: So here’s some evidence that Melvin isn’t just some Billy Beane dugout puppet

10:59
Comment From Henry
Is there a manager that communicates with someone “upstairs” about game decision?

10:59
Dave Cameron: Not allowed.

10:59
Comment From Rey
How mad at Yost do you think the actual Royals players are right now?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Not even a little bit

11:00
Comment From JayT
How would they police that rule Dave?

11:00
Dave Cameron: Not allowed to use electronic devices (ie phones) in the dugout.

11:01
Comment From Guest
I think it was foul, but good lord how is there no camera angle on that?

11:01
Dave Cameron: Yeah, these replays are useless.

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: “Here’s how a satellite saw that play unfold”

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Jon Lester is still pitching btw

11:02
Comment From Robert
Your still down by three Ned…

11:02
Dave Cameron: Its not the 9th. Getting into scoring position matters.

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Cain’s good at stealing

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: +6 runs for his career

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Finally Lester is finished

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Despite being finished 15 minutes ago

11:04
Dave Cameron: Tying run at the plate.

11:04
Dave Cameron: Crazy pants.

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Melvin was worse about his starter than Yost was

11:04
Dave Cameron: Agree.

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: hilarious

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Royals will get into October, local time

11:05
Comment From Sadwick
And now for something completely different, Adam Dunn comes in to pitch relief.

11:06
Comment From ralph
Gregerson in… I guess you can’t PH Willigham for Butler, can you?

11:06
Dave Cameron: I would not be shocked if he sent up Ibanez. It would be a brutal decision, but I would not be shocked by it.

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: He’s still there?

11:06
Dave Cameron: He is.

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Playing?

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Butler DP feels in the cards

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: I know, this is some limb

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Well I’ll be jiggered!

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Breakfast for dinner!

11:08
Dave Cameron: Okay, Billy, this time the steal will really work.

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like Gore is a certain steal attempt

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: And he is going to make it

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: A steal and a single and we can all talk about something different tomorrow than Yordano Ventura

11:09
Dave Cameron: Odds of an SB attempt? 99.9%

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: Gore ran on the first pitch. Rookie in the playoffs

11:10
Comment From chuckb
Is “where’s Doolittle? ” a stupid question?

11:10
Dave Cameron: Nope.

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: This is getting amazing

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: This is all because of Cespedes

11:11
Comment From Glen
baseball!!!!

11:11
Comment From Neddy Ned
This is a good time for a sac bunt

11:11
Dave Cameron: It actually is! I love squeeze bunts.

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: Won’t do it with two strikes, but a squeeze with Gordon against a righty…some balls

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: This game was started by two aces for whom the respective teams paid a fortune

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: A walk isn’t the *worst* thing here with righty catcher on deck

11:13
Dave Cameron: And would setup the double play.

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: There you go

11:14
Comment From ralph
Gordon has to steal 2B

11:14
Dave Cameron: There’s that, though.

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: This is the first game of the playoffs

11:14
Comment From Anthony
Do they even throw through if Gordon runs?

11:15
Dave Cameron: I think not.

11:15
Dave Cameron: Gore is too fast to risk it.

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: Two great sliders

11:15
Dave Cameron: Squeeze, fools.

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: Use Perez’s aggressiveness against him

11:15
Dave Cameron: (before there were two strikes)

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: woof, Salvador

11:16
Comment From chuckb
That was a horrendous PA from Perez.

11:16
Dave Cameron: Atrocious.

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: Perez since August 13: 1 walk, 33 strikeouts

11:17
Comment From Matt
Only the 13th time in baseball history that a team stole 5 or more bases in a playoff game.

11:17
Dave Cameron: 4 this inning, no?

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: one strike away from Doolittle 9th

11:18
Dave Cameron: Coco is described as having an “accurate arm” with no mention of the fact that he has the worst arm strength in baseball.

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: I love how Gregerson’s fastball is his secondary pitch

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: Wowwwwww

11:19
Jeff Sullivan: That is devastating

11:19
Dave Cameron: Down and away sliders.

11:19
Comment From someone
This has been a heck of a game

11:19
Comment From Mike T
Holland for the 9th? Gotta keep it at 1.

11:20
Dave Cameron: If it’s not Holland, then Yost should be terminated on the spot.

11:20
Dave Cameron: Unless you keep in Davis

11:20
Dave Cameron: Those are the only two options.

11:20
Jeff Sullivan: We had two innings in this game of the game being a kind of dull 7-3. The rest has been amazing

11:20
Dave Cameron: Any other option should be followed by seppoku.

11:21
Jeff Sullivan: Last two strikeouts dropped the Royals’ odds from 48% to 15%

11:22
Comment From Brandon
Why no pinch-hitter there? Gregerson slays righties with that slider.

11:22
Dave Cameron: The Royals don’t have good LH hitters. Or good RH hitters, for that matter.

11:25
Comment From Os fan
Is there any data backing up Aces/workhorses under performing in the playoffs due to workload?

11:25
Comment From Guest
Doolittle vs. scheduled Moustakas, Escobar, Aoki. Where do you use Willingham?

11:25
Jeff Sullivan: Nah, everyone’s tired

11:25
Dave Cameron: First.

11:26
Comment From Robert
If Moustakas gets on, who pinch runs for him?

11:26
Dave Cameron: Moustakas should not face Doolittle.

11:26
Comment From keian
I’d love to see a comparison of Gregerson and Romo. Any other guys that live off the slider as prominently as those two?

11:26
Jeff Sullivan: Alburquerque

11:26
Jeff Sullivan: Kelley, Cishek

11:26
Comment From Mike T
Oohhh where was that one?

11:26
Dave Cameron: Outside?

11:27
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty good play by Gordon

11:29
Comment From Coby
Perez has had a pretty tough ten minutes.

11:29
Dave Cameron: No chance he sees a strike here.

11:30
Dave Cameron: “Small sample… but it is off a closer.”

11:30
Dave Cameron: Well that makes it okay then.

11:30
Comment From Neddy Ned
That shitty Butler running gaffe is really looking important now

11:30
Jeff Sullivan: Annual reminder that changing one event changes all subsequent events

11:31
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe if it weren’t for that one of these teams wins by 12

11:32
Comment From Guest
Lawn dart!

11:32
Comment From Ruki
Also, I am still impressed. Holland looks like he is going to just go flying away every time he pitches.

11:32
Dave Cameron: Dunn to PH?

11:32
Dave Cameron: Can you imagine what the story would be right now if Holland was a rookie?

11:33
Jeff Sullivan: Boy that looked different off the bat

11:33
Jeff Sullivan: Good news for Doolittle, Arencibia nowhere to be found

11:33
Comment From Brian S
Yet another HR swing by Lowrie that goes 250 ft

11:35
Dave Cameron: Willingham to PH.

11:35
Comment From Jacoby
What’s the A’s win probability right now?

11:35
11:36
Jeff Sullivan: Probably an actual…85% or so?

11:36
Jeff Sullivan: More?

11:36
Dave Cameron: Factoring in Doolittle? Yeah, 85ish.

11:36
Jeff Sullivan: Doolittle + Royals

11:36
Dave Cameron: Most teams have very good pitchers in these situations, so the adjustment isn’t that huge.

11:37
Dave Cameron: True. Maybe 87 or 88 then?

11:37
Jeff Sullivan: The important thing is we can’t know and the numbers will be obsolete in a second or three

11:37
Jeff Sullivan: Amazing

11:37
Dave Cameron: Of course.

11:37
Dave Cameron: And now a Dyson steal.

11:37
Jeff Sullivan: Lefty, at least, but relievers are pretty bad at handling runners

11:38
Dave Cameron: The question isn’t whether you steal 2nd. The question is whether you steal 3rd.

11:38
Dave Cameron: Steal, steal, squeeze.

11:38
Dave Cameron: It’s not insane.

11:38
Jeff Sullivan: so Royals. I love it/hate it

11:39
Jeff Sullivan: Dyson a 3 WAR player in 290 PA with an 85 wRC+

11:39
Jeff Sullivan: I love him as a role player

11:39
Dave Cameron: He’s Craig Gentry.

11:39
Jeff Sullivan: That seems like it was a waste

11:39
Dave Cameron: That bunt was the worst bunt ever.

11:39
Dave Cameron: At least let him steal then bunt to third.

11:39
Dave Cameron: Terrible.

11:40
Jeff Sullivan: really shouldn’t have had Escobar first anyway

11:40
Jeff Sullivan: at least you figure Aoki’s hitting the ball somewhere

11:41
Jeff Sullivan: Big moment here for the third-base coach

11:41
Jeff Sullivan: inexperienced third-base coach

11:41
Dave Cameron: With a weird last name.

11:42
Jeff Sullivan: AokiDokies is adorable

11:42
Jeff Sullivan: Dyson has a good read on Doolittle. Saw that pickoff right away

11:42
Jeff Sullivan: Bingo

11:42
Dave Cameron: So he can steal third but not second? I don’t understand, but okay.

11:43
Comment From Ruki
The stealing!

11:43
Comment From Mike
This game has proven that Norris is an awful catcher

11:43
Jeff Sullivan: Frank Robinson is weeping

11:43
Dave Cameron: This is mostly just a match-up problem. Most teams don’t have these guys.

11:43
Jeff Sullivan: I am never having dinner

11:44
Comment From Bob
#SomeHowNotYosted

11:44
Comment From Jon L.
Wow!

11:44
Comment From Guest
Baseball!

11:44
Jeff Sullivan: Sooooo what do we have

11:44
Comment From Mike T
Holland for a 2nd inning?

11:45
Jeff Sullivan: No more Ventura narrative

11:45
Dave Cameron: Probably not after he threw so many pitches last inning.

11:45
Jeff Sullivan: Currently have an Oakland meltdown narrative, and a KC baserunning narrative

11:45
Jeff Sullivan: but now KC has used its runners, and its relievers

11:45
Comment From Mike T
This game is symbolic of the A’s season. Great start, crappy ending.

11:47
Comment From Mike
I’m so glad we have a team that bloops, bunts, and steals. Such “great” baseball. Ugh

11:47
Jeff Sullivan: The running is amazing

11:47
Dave Cameron: Yeah, if you don’t like stolen bases, we can’t be friends.

11:47
Jeff Sullivan: This is fun!

11:47
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, I’d like it to end soon, but this game has been everything

11:47
Comment From Herzog
This is just an incredible game. Narratives and managing be damned.

11:47
Dave Cameron: Agree.

11:47
Jeff Sullivan: Rookie on the mound

11:48
Jeff Sullivan: So what rookie narrative are we going to get?

11:48
Dave Cameron: Depends how he does, obviously.

11:48
Jeff Sullivan: +1 for rookie

11:48
Jeff Sullivan: do people still do +1 in comments

11:49
Dave Cameron: Not good ones.

11:49
Jeff Sullivan: never good ones

11:50
Comment From Brad
The idea to start Soto at catcher was a good one.

11:50
Jeff Sullivan: I bet Soto still gets run on

11:50
Comment From Only potatoes
Dave is there a point at which you let Jeff go to sleep? 14th inning?

11:50
Dave Cameron: I’m the one on the east coast.

11:50
Dave Cameron: I have a Fox piece to write when this is over!

11:51
Dave Cameron: I’m going to be so tired tomorrow.

11:51
Jeff Sullivan: And you’re chatting early tomorrow

11:51
Jeff Sullivan: So I think now we’re all pro-rookies

11:51
Dave Cameron: He just destroyed the Ventura story.

11:51
Jeff Sullivan: Which is good because I didn’t want to have to read more about that anyway

11:52
Comment From Mike T
Do you guys consider these wildcard matchups playoff games? I like the old 1 Wild Card format..

11:52
Jeff Sullivan: This is playoff baseball

11:52
Comment From Alex
I can feel the disturbance in the force that is MGL’s reaction to Lester pitching so long.

11:52
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t believe MGL and managers don’t get along

11:53
Comment From chuckb
I wonder if any Braves fans who think Evan Gattis is a catcher are watching this game.

11:53
Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, the Royals are extreme like this

11:54
Jeff Sullivan: Man Lowrie has sucked

11:54
Comment From Robert
Doolittle out for a second inning. Thoughts?

11:54
Dave Cameron: Good call.

11:54
Jeff Sullivan: And Hosmer keeps reaching against lefties

11:54
Dave Cameron: No one will pay Jed Lowrie to play short this winter.

11:55
Comment From Keian
I know it doesn’t favor the “best” team as much, but this is why one game playoffs are awesome.

11:55
Jeff Sullivan: There’s barely any difference between one game and a series

11:55
Jeff Sullivan: It’s a matter of a few percentage points

11:55
Comment From Jose
Beane getting beat by bunts and steals

11:55
Comment From Jose
Melvin

11:56
Comment From Double Simcoe
Dude in the comments had KC winning 8-7 in the 11th based on an MVP Baseball 2004 for Game Cube simulation

11:57
Comment From SeaBass
If the A’s lose….were the trades worth it?

11:57
Dave Cameron: Salvador Perez should maybe swing less often this time.

11:57
Jeff Sullivan: “worth it” is retrospective, so probably no

11:58
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s keep playing baseball

11:58
Comment From Guest
How do you think Billy Beane’s feeling right now?

11:58
Jeff Sullivan: rich

11:59
Comment From Guest
KC DH’s tonight have now been inserted for running and bunting purposes.

12:00
Comment From Jake
I have to teach an Intro Philosophy class at 8 a.m. tomorrow. Should I go to bed or keep watching.

12:00
Dave Cameron: I like how the date changed right before the question.

12:00
Jeff Sullivan: hahaha

12:00
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to October in part of America, Royals

12:00
Comment From Mike T
Welcome to October

12:01
Comment From Mike T
If the A’s get knocked out, do you think Beane blows it up and starts over? No Lester most likely.

12:01
Jeff Sullivan: They’re still good for next year. Then they’ll see

12:02
Comment From The strikezone
Does Perez realize you can take a pitch?

12:02
Jeff Sullivan: Obviously no he does not

12:02
Comment From Guest
Perez WPA: -0.35

12:03
Jeff Sullivan: Terrible bunt

12:03
Jeff Sullivan: Fine idea, terrible bunt

12:03
Comment From guest
Terrible forearm tattoo

12:04
Comment From Pat
Coco Crisp hurt?

12:04
Jeff Sullivan: Most of them are hurt

12:04
Comment From Guest
TBS is making me hate baseball. It’s a good thing this is a great game.

12:04
Jeff Sullivan: That doesn’t make sense!

12:04
Comment From frustrated…
Doolitle for one more?

12:04
Dave Cameron: I would, yes.

12:04
Comment From Guest
Why was Finnegan not an option for the sixth inning jam?

12:05
Dave Cameron: A very fair question.

12:05
Dave Cameron: LOL UZR right?

12:05
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, would’ve made sense to be warming Ventura and Finnegan at the start

12:05
Comment From Jake
3rd homer for Moss upcoming (I say this knowing you will only publish it if I am right…this is a pure free roll for me).

12:06
Comment From Joe
The commentary is unbearable, Jeff.

12:06
Jeff Sullivan: I’m focused on the chat too much to even notice

12:07
Dave Cameron: That was probably not a strike.

12:07
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Moss wasn’t doing anything with that pitch

12:07
Jeff Sullivan: Right on the Gameday edge, and LHB, so

12:07
Comment From ralph
And Bill Miller.

12:08
Comment From IsIt2015Yet?
just me or a wide zone tonight?

12:08
Jeff Sullivan: Boy is it ever not just you

12:08
Jeff Sullivan: Crisp is out

12:09
Dave Cameron: They have healthy players left on the bench?

12:09
Jeff Sullivan: The best team chemist around

12:09
Dave Cameron: Dan Otero, because hey why not.

12:10
Dave Cameron: The Royals are going to win on an inside the park HR that Gomes bungles, aren’t they?

12:10
Jeff Sullivan: Bunting time

12:11
Jeff Sullivan: Shields and Finnegan getting very intimate

12:11
Comment From Alex
That comment about the gamecube sim is getting eerie.

12:11
Comment From Dirk
However this game ends, it will encapsulate the A’s season. Win, narrowly escape a collapse. Lose, collapse!

12:12
Comment From RSF
If ball and strike calls ever become automated, will left-handed batters immediately have more value as they finally face the actual strike zone?

12:12
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll gain balls away and they’ll lose balls inside

12:12
Jeff Sullivan: Stop talking to the third-base coach like he can hear you

12:12
Comment From Robert
Is there an “acceptable” time to bunt?

12:13
Dave Cameron: Plenty of them. This is probably one.

12:14
Comment From Brandon
“The Book” says that in situations like this where you aren’t trying to maximize your expected runs, but just your probability of scoring at all, bunting for a RISP is at least a break-even

12:14
Dave Cameron: And when you have really weak hitters, the odds get even better.

12:15
Comment From Tony
Last chance for Team Gamecube.

12:15
Jeff Sullivan: And now, Jayson Nix

12:15
Dave Cameron: He’s alive still?

12:15
Jeff Sullivan: We’ll see

12:16
Dave Cameron: He’s apparently Salvador Perez in a different skin.

12:16
Jeff Sullivan: Welp, my Cover It Live window stopped updating the queue, so, sorry guys

12:16
Jeff Sullivan: All on Dave to accept comments!

12:16
Dave Cameron: If you click tools, you can refresh your display.

12:16
Comment From Aaron
Jayson Nix 326 OPS in 86 PA this year

12:16
Jeff Sullivan: holy god damn

12:16
Comment From Guest
Who is Dunn gonna pinch-hit for?

12:17
Comment From Giants fan in Kansas City
Good, Jeff is lame anyway.

12:17
Jeff Sullivan: I’m still here! I just can’t see you!

12:17
Jeff Sullivan: Except now I can, per Dave’s advice.

12:18
Comment From Pat
Odds on a position player pitching? I have 6 to 1.

12:18
Dave Cameron: Bill Miller comes through again.

12:18
Jeff Sullivan: One day, one day eventually, that will happen in a wild-card playoff

12:18
Comment From Zach
Are you guys aware of how many people are viewing the chat right now?

12:18
Dave Cameron: CIL says 2,750.

12:18
Jeff Sullivan: Wonder what it was at its peak

12:18
Dave Cameron: 2,800

12:18
Jeff Sullivan: I guess people aren’t exactly tuning out

12:19
Dave Cameron: This is kind of exciting.

12:19
Jeff Sullivan: back in 2min

12:20
Comment From Joe
Jeff must be paying the pizza delivery guy.

12:20
Comment From Robert
Something crazy will happen when Jeff’s gone just because.

12:20
Comment From Mike T
Dave how you holding up? Going to be a long night..

12:20
Dave Cameron: My Fox piece is going to be: “That was a game. Baseball!”

12:21
Jeff Sullivan: Girlfriend called 3 hours ago. Who knew!

12:21
Dave Cameron: Five words.

12:21
Comment From PattyG
Time for a bunt?!?

12:21
Dave Cameron: Wouldn’t be a bad idea.

12:21
Jeff Sullivan: Such interesting bunts in this game

12:22
Jeff Sullivan: Like, the actual bunts, not the ideas

12:22
Jeff Sullivan: What a damned night for Finnegan

12:22
Jeff Sullivan: Kudos Carson on that InstaGraph

12:23
Dave Cameron: Hey Brandon Finnegan; welcome to being famous.

12:23
Jeff Sullivan: Unless the Royals lose

12:23
Jeff Sullivan: Personally I would’ve liked Jayson Nix getting the walk-off for some reason

12:23
Comment From Steve McCroskey
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines.

12:23
Dave Cameron: Do you have some left that you could send me?

12:24
Jeff Sullivan: David Middle Name Cameron!

12:24
Dave Cameron: Alan.

12:24
Dave Cameron: Though now I’m probably going to get my identity stolen aren’t I.

12:24
Jeff Sullivan: ol’ Davey Al

12:25
Jeff Sullivan: good ol Davey Al

12:25
Dave Cameron: Davey Crockett was a popular nickname.

12:25
Jeff Sullivan: If you do get your identity stolen I can give you some pointers because boy does it happen a lot!

12:25
Comment From Mike T
Callaspo over Dunn?? What???

12:25
Dave Cameron: Weird.

12:26
Jeff Sullivan: Do the Athletics hate Adam Dunn

12:26
Comment From Dan
BIG DONKEY NEEDS TO PLAY IN HIS FIRST (AND ONLY?) PLAYOFF GAME WTF

12:26
Dave Cameron: Maybe with 1B open Dunn would have just been walked?

12:26
Jeff Sullivan: oh dear

12:27
Dave Cameron: Callapso better contact hitter, single gives you lead.

12:27
Jeff Sullivan: did not realize Callaspo had been so dreadful this season

12:27
Dave Cameron: Squeeeeeeeeeze!

12:27
Dave Cameron: Please, for the love of God, squeeze.

12:27
Jeff Sullivan: once again, no dice for Davey Al Cameron

12:28
Jeff Sullivan: Exactly

12:28
Jeff Sullivan: Exactly what Callaspo was supposed to do

12:29
Dave Cameron: And that’s why not Dunn, I guess.

12:29
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty Royal kind of sequence there

12:29
Dave Cameron: “The A’s couldn’t beat the Royals until they played like the Royals. My Column:”

12:29
Comment From Guest
Someone will win this game.

12:29
Jeff Sullivan: Smallneyball

12:29
Dave Cameron: You’re qualified to be a talking head. Congrats.

12:30
Comment From Jaack
That means that the Royals are going to hit a dinger next inning, right.

12:30
Comment From Grandpa Cistulli
Raul is tying this game next inning.

12:30
Jeff Sullivan: Cain, Hosmer…Colon…due up

12:30
Jeff Sullivan: so, Ibanez

12:30
Dave Cameron: Yeah, Ibanez for colon.

12:31
Comment From Jake
Wow, what an awful umping performance.

12:31
Dave Cameron: This is who Bill Miller is.

12:31
Dave Cameron: This isn’t surprising.

12:31
Jeff Sullivan: I greatly preferred Bill Mueller

12:31
Comment From Jaack
Bill Mueller would fit perfectly on these Royals.

12:31
Comment From Guest
I don’t know what the narrative will be now

12:31
Jeff Sullivan: This game needs Joe Randa

12:31
Dave Cameron: Please tell me because I need to write about it within ~90 minutes.

12:31
Jeff Sullivan: maybe Alberto Callaspo is Joe Randa

12:32
Jeff Sullivan: how do you even write articles in 90 minutes

12:32
Jeff Sullivan: oh there’s the lazy narrative, leadoff walks

12:33
Comment From Mike T
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times”

12:33
Comment From Alex Dodd
i smell a great bunt-themed Sullivan post coming our way.

12:33
Jeff Sullivan: I hate writing about in-game strategy, it feels so self-serious

12:34
Jeff Sullivan: If that means what I think it means

12:34
Dave Cameron: I think it does.

12:34
Comment From PattyG
Just make bunt puns the whole time. “The loser ate a big slice of bunt cake. The winner was the bunt of the litter.”

12:34
Jeff Sullivan: I get all the arguments but it’s never actually fun to write about that stuff

12:34
Dave Cameron: True story: a bakery just opened up here called Nothing Bundt Cakes.

12:34
Jeff Sullivan: Related to that, why is every yarn store name a pun?

12:35
Dave Cameron: I want to ask them what they were thinking, but I don’t want to support them by going into their store.

12:35
Jeff Sullivan: Related to that, why are there yarn stores?

12:35
Comment From Big Commie Machine
So, I’ve taken a shot every time the Royals bunted or have stolen a base. I’m still alive because this game has taken so long.

12:35
Comment From Ruki
Also, how can you hate a name like Nothing Bundt Cakes? it’s so good.

12:35
Dave Cameron: It’s a chain? That’s worse.

12:35
Dave Cameron: Dan Otero, relief ace.

12:36
Jeff Sullivan: Nobody in the Royals dugout is clapping their hands as instructed

12:36
Jeff Sullivan: Raul Ibanez and Erik Kratz

12:36
Dave Cameron: Kratz is probably better in the OF.

12:36
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty good defensive play right there

12:37
Comment From Alex Dodd
just use lots of gifs and maybe no one will notice the lack of analysis

12:37
Jeff Sullivan: ssshhhhhhh

12:38
Comment From Bob
Just a bit outside presents: “A Bill Miller called strike”

12:38
Comment From Jon
The royal pitcher with by far the best wpa will probably be the losing pitcher. Baseball!

12:38
Dave Cameron: Oh, i’m totally stealing the JABO/Bill Miller link.

12:38
Jeff Sullivan: oh perfect

12:38
Dave Cameron: Welcome to Just a Bit Outside, or as Bill Miller calls this place, Right Down The Middle.

12:38
Jeff Sullivan: Dave made a funny joke!

12:39
Comment From Jon L.
Ibanez’s last home run beat the A’s 1-0.

12:39
Comment From ST3
Is Liberty sleeping now? Does she hate extra innings?

12:39
Dave Cameron: She crashed hours ago.

12:40
Jeff Sullivan: oh god dave

12:40
Jeff Sullivan: Dave kind of almost called it

12:40
Jeff Sullivan: ***we will not sleep***

12:40
Jeff Sullivan: ***we will not write***

12:40
Dave Cameron: I give up.

12:40
Jeff Sullivan: ***we will only twist twist twist in the autumn wind***

12:41
Dave Cameron: Jonny Gomes making his teammates worse, as usual.

12:41
Jeff Sullivan: How do you not defer there

12:41
Jeff Sullivan: Colon batting, interesting

12:41
Dave Cameron: Bunt maybe?

12:41
Jeff Sullivan: Rookie

12:42
Jeff Sullivan: Never going to end, because of Jonny Gomes

12:42
Dave Cameron: I love and hate this.

12:42
Jeff Sullivan: Precisely

12:42
Dave Cameron: This is insane.

12:42
Jeff Sullivan: This is bittersweet for every single person trying to cover this game, but stepping back from that, holy cats

12:43
Comment From Mike T
“Someone’s bubble will burst tonight” thank you captain obvious

12:43
Comment From Larry Bernandez
For the love of god, stop talking about bunting away outs

12:44
Jeff Sullivan: Not that obvious, it might burst tomorrow afternoon

12:45
Jeff Sullivan: Feel like Gordon should just end this

12:45
Jeff Sullivan: I would like that for this moment

12:45
Comment From ralph
“No, I didn’t say a bad pitcher. I said Abad.” But what if they’re the same?

12:46
Comment From Matt R.
He’s not much of an outfielder, but Jonny Gomes finishes his checks.

12:46
Comment From Kev
Narrative- Cespedes would’ve caught that

12:46
Comment From Henry
East coast ain’t going to bed tonight.

12:46
Comment From Mike T
Wait, so bringing in a lefty for a lefty? Righttttt

12:46
Jeff Sullivan: Most of the east coast doesn’t care about the Royals and the A’s

12:47
Dave Cameron: I don’t know about burning a reliever for one out in an extra inning game where you already used your good pitchers.

12:47
Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t looked at Pomeranz’s numbers for a while

12:47
Jeff Sullivan: but then I also didn’t know about Jayson Nix anymore

12:47
Dave Cameron: Jason Hammel is around too, I guess.

12:47
Jeff Sullivan: the good news I suppose for all of us is that October Writes Itself so we can just go to bed when this is over

12:48
Comment From Jay @ LetsGoTribe
Do you guys feel the sheer nonsense of this game in some sense helps the case for a one-game play-in format?

12:49
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it needs the help. It’s great

12:49
Dave Cameron: By the way, we’re up 2900 readers.

12:49
Dave Cameron: at nearly 1 am eastern.

12:49
Jeff Sullivan: on a Tuesday/Wednesday

12:50
Comment From Guest
Angels gotta think this is pretty dank, yeah?

12:50
Jeff Sullivan: Ehh, everyone gets to rest

12:50
Comment From Guest
Viewership is up bc shit just got real

12:50
Comment From Mike T
He took a pitch!

12:50
Comment From Big Commie Machine
Wait, there are 2900 people IN THE CHAT?

12:50
Dave Cameron: That’s what CIL says. I don’t know if I believe them.

12:50
Jeff Sullivan: There are more people in this chat than some Astros games

12:51
Dave Cameron: Salvador Perez is too aggressive. /analysis

12:51
Jeff Sullivan: there’s your post

12:51
Comment From ralph
This game is dominating Twitter trends. Even Raul Ibanez is in there somehow.

12:51
Jeff Sullivan: maybe one day Raul Ibanez will know what that means

12:52
Jeff Sullivan: The A’s really don’t want to catch a guy stealing

12:52
Dave Cameron: Derek Norris’ stock is worth less than Enron’s right now.

12:52
Jeff Sullivan: Matt LeCroy

12:53
Jeff Sullivan: hoo boy!

12:53
Dave Cameron: Unbelievable.

12:53
Jeff Sullivan: Perez, fooled, pulls a slider away off the plate past a phenomenal defensive 3B

12:54
Jeff Sullivan: okay baseball

12:54
Jeff Sullivan: Off the glove.

12:54
Comment From Mike T
What. A. Game.

12:55
Comment From Izzy
Why would you throw a ball anywhere near the strike zone?

12:55
Jeff Sullivan: Barely did

12:55
Comment From Guest
I feel so bad for Adam Dunn right now!

12:56
Dave Cameron: This game deserves like 18 well written posts. It will get like 2 crappy ones.

12:56
Jeff Sullivan: And then everyone will move on from it by tomorrow afternoon

12:56
Jeff Sullivan: So soak this all in, before you go to bed

12:56
Comment From Aaron
I’ll be honest I’m disappointed, Angels/Royals is going to be a really one-sided series

12:56
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not!

12:57
Dave Cameron: What a way to start the playoffs.

12:57
Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out with us all night, everyone.

12:57
Jeff Sullivan: Rest of playoffs canceled, congratulations Kansas City on the world series

12:57
Jeff Sullivan: That was fun everybody!

12:58
Dave Cameron: Good luck doing this again tomorrow Jeff

12:58
Jeff Sullivan: I quit!

12:58
Dave Cameron: You have to give notice

12:58
Jeff Sullivan: Notice that I quit!

12:58
Dave Cameron: Not accepted

12:58
Dave Cameron: G’night everyone!

12:58
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll try again next year!

12:58
Jeff Sullivan: Bye!





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

30 Comments
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Timothy
9 years ago

I “simulated” this game using MVP Baseball 2004 for the GameCube last night. The Royals won 8-7 in the 11th. Jimmy Gobble got the win and Arthur Rhodes took the loss. Extra innings were necessary after Mike MacDougal blew a two run lead in the 9th. Benito Santiago and Bobby Kielty had big days at the plate. Tim Hudson and Darrell May had rough starts.

Semperty
9 years ago
Reply to  Timothy

Oh Jimmy Gobble…and MacDougal…how I don’t miss either of you.

KK-Swizzle
9 years ago
Reply to  Timothy

1. That game was AWESOME
2. This analysis has as much predictive value as most of TBS’ in-game commentators

Well done, sir!

Josh S
9 years ago
Reply to  Timothy

I’m rooting for this more than I wanted the phills in 08

JacobM
9 years ago
Reply to  Timothy

I was just reading this comment in the bottom of the 11th. Almost incredible.

wobatus
9 years ago
Reply to  Timothy

Uncanny.

Timothy
9 years ago
Reply to  Timothy

This was my one chance to be internet famous and Jayson Nix, who haunted my favorite team for a stretch of this season, blew it for me. In my game, the A’s did score in the top of the 11th before the Royals scored twice to win it.

http://tinypic.com/r/k37nfb/8

tz
9 years ago
Reply to  Timothy

Uh – 8-7 KC in 12 innings vs. 9-8 KC in 12 innings.

It’s not like Nostradamus got the spelling exactly right on all of his predictions.

Kevin
9 years ago
Reply to  Timothy

I’m buying a copy of MVP Baseball 2004 for the Gamecube tomorrow.

Biff Tannen
9 years ago
Reply to  Kevin

Give me that copy of MVP Baseball for Gamecube, McFly!

King Buzzo's Fro
9 years ago
Reply to  Kevin

Hope you have at least $2 to your name! I think I have a PS2 version, time to hook that sumbitch up and see who’s going to win the NL game today. Idea stolen

King Buzzo's Fro
9 years ago
Reply to  Timothy

Did you pull the Gamecube out for this or do you still use the thing? I love everything about this. Did you pull Roger Clemens off the free agent list to start for KC?