Do All the Free-Agent Sluggers Have a Home?

It’s true that, if you look at the free agents who remain unsigned this offseason, you’ll find a lot of power still available. Franklin Gutierrez, Mike Napoli, Mark Trumbo: all three produced an isolated-slugging figure greater than .200 last season. All three are projected by Steamer to produce better than a .195 ISO in 2017. All three have yet to find a team for the 2017 season.

Given the general demand for power, you might wonder why so many of these sluggers don’t have jobs yet. A look both at the supply and the demand in the league reveals a possible cause, however: handedness. There might be an obstacle, in other words, to matching those free agents with the right teams.

To illustrate my point, let me utilize the depth charts at RosterResource. What’s nice about RosterResource, for the purposes of this experiment, is that the site presents both a “go-to” starting lineup and also a projected bench. Here’s a link to the Cubs page to give you a sense of what I mean.

In most cases, a team will roster four non-catcher bench players. Looking over the current depth charts, however, I find 15 teams with only three non-catcher bench players on the depth chart (not to mention five additional bench players who are projected to record less than 0 WAR). For the purpose of this piece, let’s refer to these as “open positions.”

Fifteen! That’s a lot. It means we’re likely to see quite a few signings before the season begins. Of course, not all these openings are appropriate for the power bats remaining on the market. Most of those guys are corner types, if they can play the field at all, while some of those 15 clubs have needs at positions that require greater defensive skill.

For example, Anaheim might need an infielder or a third baseman for their open bench spot. The White Sox need a right-handed center fielder to platoon with lefty Charlie Tilson. Detroit needs a center fielder, maybe a right-handed one — and in the process of writing this piece, they got one in the form of the newly acquired Mike Mahtook maybe. If Mel Rojas Jr. can’t play center in Atlanta, they need a (right-handed?) center fielder, too. The Yankees may need a third baseman — and, if not that, definitely someone with some defensive ability on the infield.

So that reduces the number of open positions to 10. That’s 10 slots that could be filled by an offensive piece with little defensive value. Here are the teams that, by my estimation, have an opening for a slugger: Baltimore, Boston, Chicago (NL), Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland, Seattle, Tampa, Texas, and Toronto.

You can quibble with the actual need for defensive value for a few of these teams, for sure. The Cubs have quite the offense on the field, and two good offensive pieces on the bench, so maybe they want a defense-first outfielder to fill out their 25-man roster. Cleveland has two DH types already, so maybe they want some defense out of their next piece. Minnesota may be more concerned with age and years of control than short-term offense.

Even after accounting for those additional criteria, though, you’re still left with seven slots for sluggers. But there might be another problem. Let’s take a look at the best remaining sluggers and add in a key column.

Three of the top four remaining sluggers by projected slugging percentage are left-handed, but the list is generally a 50-50 mix of left and right. The bad news for the right-handers is that opportunities may be more prevalent for the lefties.

No bench in baseball is ever entirely right-handed. Right now, though, the projected benches in Kansas City, Oakland, Texas, and Toronto all lack a left-handed batter. They probably all want a lefty, yes?

Well, it’s not quite that simple. Texas could “manufacture” a lefty-batting bench player by signing a new first baseman and pushing Jurickson Profar (switch) or Joey Gallo (lefty) to the bench. You could do the same in Toronto with Justin Smoak (switch). Of course, if that new signing were a right-hander, then the team would have only three batters capable of swinging from the left side on the entire 25-man roster, only two in the starting lineup, and one of those would be Ezequiel Carrera. That’s sort of the situation in Oakland, too — you could push Yonder Alonso (lefty) to the bench, but then your starting lineup would have Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, and Stephen Vogt as the only lefty swingers.

Even among the teams that already have a lefty on the bench, you’ll find clubs that are probably looking for another. Seattle has a switch-hitter on the bench, but he’s a middle infielder. If they get a bench slugger, their pinch-hitters would all be righties. Maybe not a big deal in the American League, and they could easily push Dan Vogelbach into a reserve role with a righty starter, or option him. The team has good balance, anyway.

Cleveland has a switch-hitter on the bench (Abraham Almonte), but he’s a center fielder. They could use a lefty true backup, maybe. Baltimore has a lefty (Ryan Flaherty), but he’s a light-hitting infielder. But if they sign a righty to push Trey Mancini to the bench, they’ll only have Chris Davis, Hyun Soo Kim, as Seth Smith as lefties in the starting lineup, and no lefty bats with any pop on the bench. The Rays might want a lefty bench complement to Steven Souza, since they only have Nick Franklin swinging from the left on the bench, but they’ve got a good mix in the lineup.

Let’s call it. Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, and Toronto are probably looking for lefties. Adam Lind and Brandon Moss should direct their agents in those directions, but since there are five good lefties and four teams that can use them, it might take some time to sort this out.

It’s on the other side of the coin that there might be a little scarcity of opportunity and talent, paradoxically. Sure, you still have Boston, Chicago (NL), Minnesota, Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Texas to call if you’re a righty slugger. And the six teams have five right-handed free agents from which to pick. Perfect.

But Minnesota might be looking to pick up someone who gets released and has a little upside, someone who might contribute down the line, which leaves five teams looking at veteran righties. The Cubs might want some defense in the outfield, leaving four teams. There are only two righties projected to produce more than a win above replacement next year, so suddenly you have four teams looking at Mike Napoli and Mark Trumbo, and only two of them really have a starting spot to offer.

Is Mark Trumbo to Seattle or Texas a done deal, then? Is Franklin Gutierrez screwed, relegated to a backup role in Tampa or Boston? Probably, but it’s also tough to say, because trades could still shake up the landscape, particularly in Seattle and in Colorado.

But if you’re looking at the available sluggers and thinking that the pendulum has swung too far because teams are undervaluing power, you also have to look closely at how the teams are currently structured and with what hand your slugger swings. Then you’ll see that there are really only two teams that will throw real money at a right-handed power bat right now. And with two big righty bats out there, maybe the system is working efficiently*.

*Unless you’re Chris Carter?