Do the Cardinals Need to Make a Splash?

The St. Louis Cardinals have had pretty good starting rotations in the recent past. In 2012 and 2013, they were exceptional. The rotation finished third in FIP- in 2012, and second in 2013. They were still pretty good last season, but not quite as good — they finished 11th in FIP-. That underscores a little bit of the tumult that the rotation experienced though. They needed 12 starters to get through the season, and as such it’s not all that surprising that they’re at least thinking about making a splash in the starting rotation market. But, do they need to?

There are two ways of looking at this. The first way is through the prism of last season. They had 11 guys make at least four starts, and needed a 12th starter overall. It was the first time since 2007 that they needed 12 starters, and the first time since 1999 when they need 11 guys to make four or more starts. So, it’s easy to see why they would want to build in some stability. Especially when some of the pitchers that they’re counting on have some question marks.

Adam Wainwright was not nearly as good in the second half as he was in the first, collapsed in October, and then had minor elbow surgery following the season. It’s folly to use the second half of a season to predict the next one, but it’s also hard to look at that and not be a little concerned. Especially when the pitcher in question has the age of 30 firmly in his rearview mirror and recently had Tommy John surgery.

While we’re not sure whether or not Wainwright is healthy, at least it’s with a predictable elbow injury. Michael Wacha, on the other hand, has a non-normal baseball injury, and that is definitely concerning. Pitchers have pitched and succeeded with shoulder injuries, but Wacha’s stress reaction casts his whole outlook in a murky light. Which is more than the team can say for Jaime Garcia, who is basically the boy who cried wolf at this point. He’s basically in Brett Anderson territory, and counting on him for anything seems foolish. Not to say the Cardinals are in fact counting on him. Obviously they aren’t.

You look at this uncertainty, and you can see how the team would be bullish on acquiring one of the three players mentioned in the FOX Sports report earlier this week — Cole Hamels, David Price and Max Scherzer. All three have exemplary track records of both health and performance.

It’s not all bad though. John Lackey and Lance Lynn are reliable, 2-3 WAR starters. Between Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales the team has at least one good pitcher, and might have two. Both Steamer and ZiPS are fans of both. And Tyler Lyon also profiles pretty well — slightly below average by ZiPS but Steamer likes him a bit more than that. In other words, the perfect swingman, and if everyone is healthy, he’s your seventh or eighth starter. Add it all up, and you have a pretty good rotation. Yes, it is short on stability, but it’s long on talent.

The talent inherent is such that we have it projected to be the fifth-best starting rotation in the game in 2015. That is with a healthy dose of Wainwright (214 IP) and Wacha (166) however. Perhaps those should be adjusted downward? I did just that, to be conservative, pushing Wainwright down to 184 IP and Wacha down to 139. You can see that on their team page now. It didn’t change things much — their projected rotation WAR went from 10.9 to 10.8. It moved them from solely in fifth place overall to a tie for fifth place with the two Sox’s.

If the team thinks that they’re not able to bank on the two W’s for that much, then perhaps they would be wise to consider external alternatives. Suddenly that great depth would be in the rotation, and even-less impressive prospects like Tim Cooney and Zachary Petrick waiting in the wings. For most teams, that’d be just fine — you put your faith in your players and hope for the best. No need to have a backup plan for your backup plan, so to speak. The Cardinals can readily identify 10 pitchers who could slot into major league starts this season. But the Cardinals aren’t in an ordinary situation.

For one thing, they only have one year of Jason Heyward and John Lackey. For another, there is the slow decline of Matt Holliday to consider, and the fact that the team still hasn’t found a credible backup for Yadier Molina. Tony Cruz is an average pitch framer at best, and last year he was well below average in that respect. And he’s always a zero, or worse, with the bat. And the offense was middling overall last year, and that was with a pretty strong performance from Jhonny Peralta. Suppose he regresses a little — as Steamer expects him to — where does that leave the offense? Flipping Martinez and some outfield prospects for Hamels or Price, or outlaying the cash for Scherzer certainly becomes a more attractive prospect when you think about it like that.

Making such a big splash for a starting pitcher would be pretty uncharacteristic for the Cardinals, so it’s not something we should expect to happen. And they don’t necessarily need to either. If they can squeeze 300 innings out of Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha, they should end up with one of the best starting rotations in the game. If that isn’t possible, then things get a little dicier, but they have enough depth to weather the storm, and have done so before. In other words, Scherzer, Hamels or Price would be a luxury. But if the team feels its championship window is closing, then it’s certainly a luxury they can afford.





Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.

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channelclemente
9 years ago

Less than a ‘splash’, they need to figure out how to beat the Giants in a short series, other than wait for Bochy to retire. That numbnuts in LA seems under control.

LHPSU
9 years ago

It doesn’t matter. 2015 is an odd-numbered year.