Do You See Something the Projections Don’t?

Last night I was out getting a drink with our own Matthew Kory. His favorite team is the Red Sox. My favorite team is the Mariners. The bar we went to was showing the Mariners game, and while the Mariners were actually winning, that did nothing to stem the tide of jokes at our own expense. They’re two very different teams in two very similar situations — they came in with a lot of hype and promise, some people labeling them World Series contenders, and to this point they’ve more or less sucked. I don’t know which team has been the bigger disappointment. There’s still time yet, but while that means things could get better, that means, also, things could get worse.

The conversation turned to looking ahead. It was just last week I wrote about the meaning of the standings through a couple months, relative to the meaning of the projections. The numbers suggested that the Sox and Mariners would be pretty good. They continue to suggest that, and, my brain knows it should believe that. But it can be difficult to fully accept, when you’re watching a team playing different from the expectations. It feels like a bad team is just a bad team. It feels like a good team has something special going on. There are feelings you’re supposed to feel, and feelings you actually feel. Actual feelings, you could say, are greatly prone to recency bias.

The conversation has led to this post. It’s another post with an assortment of polls, asking for your participation. The idea: do you see something, in the teams you follow, the projections don’t? Do you see reason to doubt the projected records? The polls will ask about five teams: the Red Sox, Mariners, Royals, Cardinals, and Nationals.

We all like to think we can spot things. We all like to think we can identify characteristics that formulas would miss. And it’s true, we can do those things. It’s more a matter of how often, and of how often there are false positives or whatever you want to call them. Just because you see something doesn’t mean it’s significant. Just because you see something doesn’t mean it’ll sustain. Seeing the future is complicated. It’s because understanding the present is complicated, and the present is presently happening.

Below, we have five teams you could say are under- or over-achieving. One way you could look at this would be to compare actual record against projected record. But I’m going a different way, using a particular FanGraphs feature. You, probably, know the Playoff Odds page, and there you can see projected rest-of-season record based on Steamer, ZiPS, and the depth charts. Nothing weird there — we refer to those numbers pretty often. But there’s a tab up there, that takes you to a similar-looking page titled “Season to Date Stats Mode.” On that page, you get what you could consider to be team projections, but instead of ZiPS and Steamer, they’re based on what the players have actually done in 2015. This makes for a fun comparison. This is the core of the post. On the regular Playoff Odds page, for example, the Red Sox are pretty good. Using season-to-date stats mode, the Red Sox are pretty bad. My question to you: which do you believe?

The five teams being polled are the five teams with the biggest differences between projected winning percentage and season-to-date stats mode projected winning percentage. The Red Sox, Mariners, and Nationals have under-achieved, while the Royals and Cardinals have over-achieved. For the sake of responding to the polls, consider how you feel now, and don’t assume future trades. In the Cardinals’ case, don’t assume future discipline. I just want to see where you guys come down. Thank you in advance for helping out.

Red Sox

Steamer/ZiPS projected win%: .534

Season-to-date mode projected win%: .403

Difference: .131

Quick summary: They were supposed to have good position players and good depth to make up for a mediocre pitching staff. The pitching staff has held up its end of the arrangement.

Mariners

Steamer/ZiPS projected win%: .533

Season-to-date mode projected win%: .432

Difference: .101

Quick summary: A year ago, the Mariners had a 93 wRC+, and then they added Nelson Cruz, who’s overall been solid. As a result of that upgrade, this year the Mariners have a 93 wRC+, but with a worse defense.

Royals

Steamer/ZiPS projected win%: .487

Season-to-date mode projected win%: .574

Difference: .087

Quick summary: It’s funny what happens to an offense when Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Kendrys Morales decide collectively to not be bad. You don’t necessarily have to replace James Shields with pitching.

Cardinals

Steamer/ZiPS projected win%: .534

Season-to-date mode projected win%: .615

Difference: .081

Quick summary: Adversity doesn’t matter to these people. They’ve had a top-five rotation without Adam Wainwright, the bullpen has a sub-2 ERA, and the offense has been good enough with Jason Heyward hitting like Yadier Molina and Yadier Molina hitting like Ben Revere.

Nationals

Steamer/ZiPS projected win%: .574

Season-to-date mode projected win%: .498

Difference: .076

Quick summary: The unsinkable team has sunk to second place, and by some measures there’s been no worse starting pitcher in baseball than Stephen Strasburg. Injuries have been a problem, but even the players expected to be on the roster have largely under-performed, as shown by the numbers above. All this, somehow, despite Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer.