Dodgers Dust Yankees Again, Sweep to Come?

The Yankees came home from a resoundingly unproductive trip to California bloodied, but not beaten. A 2-0 deficit in the World Series is nothing to the Bronx Bombers, who have won four World Series after spotting their opponents two games. (Two of those — 1956 and 1978 — came against the Dodgers, in fact.) That’s more championships than 20 of the 29 other teams have won total.
But a comeback from 3-0? That’s only happened once in major league history — you don’t need to remind the Yankees when — and never in the World Series. So Game 3 was idiomatically, if not literally, a must-win.
From the pregame festivities, in which Fat Joe delivered an unsatisfying sequel to Ice Cube’s performance at Dodger Stadium two days ago, to the first inning, in which two of the first three Dodgers hitters scored, the Yankees were a step behind. The Dodgers, 4-2 winners, are one win from repeating a feat they haven’t achieved since 1963: sweeping the World Series. The Yankee comeback, in the unlikely event it happens at all, will have to start tomorrow.
Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt is a good pitcher with a wide repertoire; most starters in the league would give a kidney to be able to spin a breaking ball the way he does. Unfortunately, spin doesn’t do much good if you can’t locate it. Schmidt threw just 37 of his 68 pitches for strikes. His most problematic offering, unfortunately, was his most common: the cutter. Schmidt missed the zone with 71% of his cutters — most of them high and not particularly close — and the Dodgers didn’t chase a single one. Nor did they swing and miss at a single cutter within the zone. It’s not a fun way to pitch.
Schmidt’s problems manifested themselves immediately. The first batter of the game, Shohei Ohtani, landed awkwardly on a slide late in Game 2, suffering a shoulder subluxation. Going after a hitter with a busted shoulder isn’t quite like a basketball player driving on a defender with a bum ankle, but you might want to check to make sure Ohtani can still swing the bat.
He could, it turns out, though with some discomfort. Ohtani ran the bases resting his left arm against his chest and grabbing his collar, looking like Eric Roberts in Best of the Best. Except we didn’t find that out until later; Schmidt threw four fastballs to Ohtani, none of which came anywhere near the plate. It was the first of four walks he’d issue in just 2 2/3 innings.
There are, unfortunately, worse things that can happen to a poorly located cutter, as Schmidt soon found out:
Sometimes you can identify a home run right off the bat. Less common are home runs you can identify right out of the pitcher’s hand, but this was one of them: 93 mph, up in the zone and over the inside third of the plate. A hitter like Freddie Freeman — who has now homered in a record-tying five straight World Series games, dating back to 2021 — prays to see meatballs like this.
As much as Schmidt probably wants that pitch back (or this entire start), it’s not fair to peg him with sole responsibility for the loss. When he left the game, it was only 3-0 in the third inning, and the Yankees’ bullpen allowed just one run in 6 1/3 innings. Four runs… you’d expect an offense with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge to be able to clear that hurdle, and yet they never even came close to doing so.
Walker Buehler, making what is looking more and more like his last start in a Dodgers uniform, struck out five and allowed just four baserunners in five scoreless innings. In contrast to his opposite number, Buehler did manage a couple whiffs on his fastball (six of them on the four-seamer, one on his cutter), and nine swings and misses total out of 29 Yankees swings.
It wasn’t a dominating start, but it was more than enough. The New York lineup just could not get out of its own way. Soto, Judge, Gleyber Torres, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. combined to go 0-for-13 with four walks, and the Yankees as a whole were down to their last strike before they scored a run.
The Yankees’ offensive struggles, like any slump, are a mix of bad execution, bad luck, and bad decisions. For a microcosm, consider the bottom of the fourth inning.
The first pitch of that frame was a hanging knuckle curve to Judge. As well as Buehler pitched in general, this was a bad mistake, a pitch even fatter than the cutter Freeman had hit out three innings prior. The presumptive AL MVP connected and put it in the air; Yankees radio announcer John Sterling got so excited he went full Bobby Brady on the call. I’m not laughing at Sterling, because I was fooled too. Anyone who’s watched any amount of Judge’s career has seen him hit that pitch 450 feet over and over again. His ability to put a charge into pitches like that is what makes him the most feared hitter in the league.
But this one landed innocuously in Teoscar Hernández’s glove, several paces short of the warning track, let alone the fence. By game’s end, Judge had fallen to 1-for-13 in this World Series with seven strikeouts. He can be streaky, and at inconvenient times. Few teams can hack it in the World Series while getting nothing from their best player.
The next hitter, Giancarlo Stanton, doubled to left, after which Chisholm hit a hard, sinking line drive to right. Had anyone other than Mookie Betts been out there, it likely as not would’ve dropped, and possibly plated Stanton. Instead, Betts made a diving grab to rob Chisholm of a hit. The Yankees third baseman, who hopped up and swore in frustration, knew how valuable that run would’ve been. It would’ve cut the deficit to two, and saved the Yankees from having to stare at that intolerable goose egg on the scoreboard as the pressure mounted.
Also aware of the value of bringing Stanton home: Yankees third base coach Luis Rojas. When Anthony Volpe dumped a Texas Leaguer in front of Hernández for a single, Rojas waved the HMS Stanton in, even though he was only just touching third as Hernández fielded the ball. The Dodgers left fielder didn’t need to go Full Cespedes with his throw; anything accurate would do, and that’s exactly what he provided. Hernández hit Will Smith’s target on one hop, and Stanton was out by plenty:
When you’re not seeing the ball well, the bad breaks sting more, and you start to press. Los Angeles never truly knocked the Yankees out of it — an unsuccessful squeeze bunt in the fourth felt too cute by half, and the Dodgers themselves only had five base hits over nine innings. So when Alex Verdugo hit a two-run homer to cut the lead in half with two outs in the ninth, it was more than just a consolation score.
But it was mostly a consolation score, as Torres grounded out to end the game five pitches later. Having made the Dodgers’ leverage guys work one day before a presumptive bullpen game is cold comfort. There’s no such thing as a moral victory this late in the season.
Sometimes it just isn’t your day. It’s always true in baseball, and the sentiment can be comforting in the Sisyphean toil of August. But the Yankees are out of rope. One more night like this and they’ll be left shrugging all the way home.
Michael is a writer at FanGraphs. Previously, he was a staff writer at The Ringer and D1Baseball, and his work has appeared at Grantland, Baseball Prospectus, The Atlantic, ESPN.com, and various ill-remembered Phillies blogs. Follow him on Twitter, if you must, @MichaelBaumann.
they better put some rum out and light some candles and incense for Jobu because only black magic is gonna get the funk off those st-ankee bats.
They have no marbles!
I’m loathe to read too much into playoff performances and hate grand narratives as much as anyone here, but at this point it’s clear that Judge is slumping because of the pressure of the postseason makes him change his approach. It’s too many postseason games from too good of a hitter, and you can watch his ABs. That doesn’t mean he can’t become a good postseason hitter, but it’s clear the pressure has gotten to him in the playoffs so far.
And that’s the biggest reason they’re losing this series.
Did a little bit of digging and Judge has the biggest magnitude drop in wRC+ from the regular season to the playoffs for all players with at least 2500 reg season PA and 200 playoff PA since 1995, with a minimum of a 115 wRC+ in the regular season.
Top 5 are
Judge (-75), Reggie Sanders (-60), Jim Thome (-53), Robinson Cano (-51), Will Smith (-50)
He hasn’t been great in playoffs generally but 1-12, 7 K is a new level of futility, especially in light of how questionable the Dodger rotation was coming in
The Dodger rotation was questionable because guys hadn’t always been pitching great, but the talent level was always there, and the capability of those pitchers to get their command and be excellent was always a possibility.
I don’t think that works for someone who’s been the best hitter in the game. Soto and Stanton have been producing.
I think everyone, even the best hitters in the game, sometimes go cold for a little bit and it sucks when thats in the playoffs
I say that as someone who rather recently experienced their own future HOF outfielder go 3-49 over several postseasons
Guys go on bad streaks in the regular season. It also happens in the postseason, where the pitching is better – so it should be more likely to happen there.
Judge isn’t anymore ‘incapable of handling the pressure’ than Betts was. There’s just more narratives.
Also consider that its quite likely that teams do a lot of advance scouting of players like Judge or Betts and have a lot of incentive to hold their discoveries until playoff series before deploying them.
Yeah, he has a 97 wRC+ for his playoff career, but 69 since 2019. A-Rod was killed and had much better results than that.
That was a tough game to watch. 3:25 of very little happening except bases on balls, strikeouts and incessant pitching changes. If the regular season begins to look like this, 15 pitchers, 10 hits and 12 walks, all packaged in a ludicrous three hour and twenty five minute window, I, as passionate a baseball fan as there is, might be forced to find another way to spend my summer evenings.
It’s bad when a 3B error is one of the more memorable events in the game
Well, I think there are fewer ads in the regular season and these are autumn evenings (just ribbing you a little, I know what you meant)…but….yes, it was game begging for a big breakthrough moment that never happened – excepting Freeman’s HR in the 1st inning.
The playoff game that isn’t close but isn’t a laugher is always tedious as teams have to still do all they can to maximize their chance to win, even though its only like 5% or something.
Yes if this new boatload of pitchers continues the long games will result in lost fans. Not me because I just love the game but a large number of fans and I won’t blame them. Can you imagine a game without the “3 batters” rule.
Home plate Ump had a bad night. He was missing calls all over the place. I’m guessing he had at least 4 “bad” calls (i.e. where it wasn’t even close)
Definitely was horrific all around, and yet, according to the Ump Scorecard account, the bad calls added up to almost a full run in favor of the Yankees, which doesn’t even include the dubious out call of Gavin Lux at the plate. The called strike to Will Smith on what should have been ball 4 with the bases loaded sticks out as the most egregious. In any case, talking about umpires after any World Series game means MLB has failed, and assigning anything but the best of the best in the WS is a massive failure.
It was one of the worst games I’ve seen called in a long time. I lost count of how many missed calls he made. In the World Series no less! How does this happen! The ball 4 to Smith with the bases loaded and the horrendous call to Torres when the Yankees had a chance to score were both huge game changing calls. That doesn’t even include the numerous other misses.
How does this happen? Ump got caught up in the moment (they’re human) and Smith framed them well….but, yeah, wretched calls
I mean I think it’s been discussed at long length that these are not the best umpires available to work the World Series and MLB has failed by choosing the ones they did. Unless their goal was to try and get a roboump.
Also most of the bad calls were when the Dodgers were batting so Smith didn’t have much to do with it. As the commenter above noted the Yankees were spotted almost a full run by the Ump Scorecards measures.
I didn’t hate the Torres call quite as much as some of the others – honestly, at first I thought he punched Torres out for swinging, not because the ball was a strike
On replay I think Torres definitely checked, but in the moment that’s why I thought it was called a strike.
Yeah and since I made that first post I’ve now read that the electronic systems surprisingly say that Torres call was correct. I guess the box they had on screen was too short? It certainly looked terrible in real time.
So I stand corrected on that one I guess.
The boxes on the screen are often very inaccurate
Also, remember that hitter is moving during his swing, and most hitter deepen their crouch in the process. To take it to an extreme, its not like a hitter who folded at the waist to bring his knees to his armpits by the time the pitch arrived would shrink his strike zone to zero. Whether that pitch was a strike to Torres is not something that you can determine by looking at where Torres’s armpits are after the ball is in the glove. They’ve moved!
It was a borderline strike, but not, in my opinion, an unreasonable one. It was notable because that kind of borderline call usually goes to the home team, and is a big source of home field advantage.
I hope Manfred doesn’t have his brain in a place where the sun don’t shine and implements, at the minimum, an ABS challenge system which, realistically is the best fans can hope for. I have seen it live in 2 games and it was fast, not like the tedious team challenges, and added a moment of suspense. There was a loud crowd reaction when the Hawk Eye image was displayed on the scoreboard. Far too many games have been dramatically influenced by just plain bad ball and strike calls and last night put it directly in the spotlight.
You know this is the first time that I actually thought the Home Plate umpire blew a minimum or 4 calls. I’m not even counting border line calls. I remember thinking “no way” several times. Generally I think MLB umpiring is very good. This will help fuel the robot umpire debate.
This World Series has played out virtually identically to last year’s: An incredible Game 1 followed by a bunch of games that have been dull and largely uncompetitive. MLB is surely furious, as are Padres fans/FO seeing what their path could’ve been if they didn’t suddenly forget how to hit.
The Dodgers won game two and three by two runs and the Yankees had the bases loaded in the ninth in game two with one out. This series has not been uncompetitive.
Yeah, but the Yankees’ offense has been so lifeless that it’s rarely felt like they were truly in it.
yup
In last night’s game Yankees’ win prob wasn’t above 30% past the 2nd or 10% past the 6th. It was 4-0 until the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs, and after the HR it was 4-2 w/ 2 outs no one on.
Not as close as the score would imply.
They were probably the second most impressive team in the playoffs. Phillies were supposed to make a better showing.
To be fair, game 5 last year was also very good. One pitcher with a no-hitter threat and the other somehow walking a tight rope.
Between these two banger offenses and a bunch of dinged-up starting pitching, I expected more runs.
The general quality of bullpens now is impressive.
I don’t think anyone saw the Dodgers rotation pitching this well either as you can argue Buehler and Yamamoto had arguably their best starts of the season in this series.
This almost certainly wasn’t Yamamoto’s best start of the season given that he also shut the Yankees out for 7 innings in the same stadium earlier this year.
But they’re much improved.
Part of me is happy because the Yankees eliminated my Guards and I don’t like them as an organization (stop buying everything) or fanbase (booing your own players is cringe). The players are cool, though. But honestly, this series sucks. It feels like ’07 or 2012, one team being so much better prepared than the other while the opposite buckles under the pressure.
Not one of the Yankees’ starters yesterday was acquired in free agency. Every one was homegrown via the draft or traded for, often with homegrown prospects.
And they got that buy buying the biggest scouting department in any sports league. Judge had to be reacquired in FA, Rizzo too, Soto will be reacquired in FA this year, and Stanton’s contract could only be absorbed by like four teams. You’re oversimplifying.
The largest analytics department in MLB belongs to the noted big-market behemoth Tampa Bay Rays.
Also, since when was it “unfair” to resign your own, fan-favorite players? I thought people hated the Yankees because they signed FAs from other teams (which is a poor argument since those players only left due to their teams’ owners being cheap, but I digress)
its not the Yankees fault that your favorite team is owned by a Dolan
Yes How many Cleveland fans rip the Yankees due to money while the Dolan family has much more money than the Steinbrenner family. And how many Dodgers players are home grown ? Certainly not as many as the Yankees. Myths are just myths.
Rooting for the Dodgers because stop buying everything is so laughably misguided.
Yup. Almost the entire team of Dodgers are free agents and trades.
Sorry but the fact is the Guardian ownership has a lot more money than Hal Steinbrenner. They just refuse to put it into the team. They are filthy rich. As a Yankee fan I completely accept the Dodgers fans because your team has been better. But I get my back up at Guardian fans pretending they don’t have money.
I checked the box score, and I couldn’t believe it: the Yankees and Dodgers both had 5 hits, 6 walks, and 1 homer. Didn’t feel like that at all. The Dodger sequencing was great/lucky, and the Yankees sequencing was terrible/unlucky.
Well sorta. Dodgers also got hit by two pitches and 1 of those scored. Also baserunning and defense play a part. Just compare Stanton getting thrown out at home vs Edman scoring on the Mookie bloop single.
So now you are saying Tommy Edman is faster than Giancarlo Stanton .Lets have a race between them.
Well sure. Baserunning is part of why Tommy Edman has been a much better player than Stanton since Edman made his major league debut. I’m assuming this is a joke but clearly the original poster didn’t consider the disparity between the plays which is why I posted that.
Saw on cbs sports that the Yankees are 9-27 in their last 36 playoffs games against non al central teams woof.
They’ve lost 10 straight playoff games against non AL Central teams.
And the last time they won a series against a non AL Central ream was back in 2012 when they beat the Orioles in the Division Series (I’m not counting the 2018 Wild Card games against the A’s since that was a single game, not a series).
Are there certain types of hitters that hit worse vs elite pitching? I’ve been trying to figure this out myself, but I lack the math skills. Like let’s use Judge for example. To my pea brain the numbers show he cannot hit a high fastball at all. But he’s routinely chasing pitches low. Trout is another guy who cannot hit a high fastball. Maybe hitters that struggle vs high fastballs have a tendency to struggle more vs better pitchers (I mean everyone does obv) relative to everyone else. And in the playoffs you rarely see the 4-5 starter type.
My theory is if you cannot hit a high fastball you obviously have to be pretty damn good at hitting everything else w survivorship bias. But maybe those type of hitters can be more exploited w X and X due to that inability?
Judge sent a shoulders-high fastball from Hunter Gaddis into Monument Park during the ALCS, so your “pea brain” is a bit misspoken there. I will say that Judge’s greatest skill is punishing pitchers’ mistakes (if you’re active on Twitter then you may recall the “Meatball Man” debate in August), and facing pitchers who aren’t making nearly as many mistakes may be throwing him off – he’s staring at crushable pitches while swinging at balls. Completely lost at the plate, and with him is the Yankees’ championship dreams.
I think the worst decision was having Edman squeeze bunt 1st and 3rd, no outs, up 3-0 – unless he decided to do it himself. There’s a reason Dave Roberts is 0-fer (well, I guess maybe not anymore).
1-fer
There wasn’t even any element of surprise after showing it on the first pitch
Thank you for calling out the inexplicable foolishness of that squeeze attempt. You’ve got a pitcher who isn’t fooling anyone and men at the corners…you don’t think Tommy Edman can hit a fly ball at worst? Why give up the potential for a knockout blow? That and letting Buehler come back out for TTO were not good decisions. I agree that he’s done a generally masterful job, but it’s fascinating to see the narrative change when Roberts doesn’t get punished for a bad decision because it gets hidden in the box score later.
When it happened I figured that Roberts just has like a private wish to always do a squeeze bunt when he wins a world series, since Barnes did one in 2020.
Ok but it might prevent him from winning the WS
It was Peter Brady. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFzyk0h0Jyk