Dodgers Reportedly Throw Money Around, Sign Hector Olivera
Last week, I suggested that the Dodgers don’t really need Hector Olivera because they already have something pretty similar in Justin Turner. Obviously, Andrew Friedman and his crew do not agree.
Source: Cuban INF Hector Olivera has agreed to a 6-year, $62.5 million deal with Dodgers. $28MM signing bonus. Check http://t.co/mkcBse7p5i
— Jesse Sanchez (@JesseSanchezMLB) March 24, 2015
Kiley McDaniel did a nice job breaking down Olivera a few weeks ago, and in that piece, he wrote this: “The Dodgers are the only team that’s in on Olivera that can afford to pay whatever they want.” And this signing is a reminder that they really can do just that; a team with the largest payroll in baseball and no obvious spot for Olivera this season just ponied up a $28 million signing bonus and $34 million in future salary commitments for a guy who probably doesn’t make a significant impact for them until 2016, when he’ll be 31 years of age.
Of course, it’s quite possible that my Justin Turner comparison was quite light, and perhaps Olivera is even better than Juan Uribe by the second half of this season, giving the team a bit of an upgrade at third base for the stretch run. It’s not impossible that Olivera will contribute this year, though he’d have to be pretty great to represent a substantial upgrade over Uribe, Turner, and whatever Alex Guerrero could potentially give them at third base.
Right now, we have the Dodgers third base contingent combining for about +3 WAR this season; Olivera might push that to +4 if he comes up quickly and is awesome, but this is unlikely to move the needle for LA that much this year. This is basically the Dodgers spending $63 million to solve a 2016 problem — when Uribe and Howie Kendrick are both set to hit free agency — a few months in advance. And they’re basically the only team in baseball that can still afford to do stuff like that.
It’s great to be smart and find all kinds of hidden bargains, constructing a good team out of undervalued pieces. It’s also great to just be able to outbid everyone for anyone you want. The Dodgers apparently are going to do both.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Dang. Dodgers are like Real Madrid over here.
Is that a Mexican League baseball team?
Madrid is in spain. It’s a Spanish Baseball team.
WAR is so much easier to understand when it’s related to things I understand; like the difference between 3 WAR and 4 WAR is a player who comes up quickly and is awesome. I’m not sure if that awesome is relative to a replacement player or juan uribe, but at this point it doesn’t matter.
Uribe is slow, posts low BB%s (3.7% last year), low OBP, and modest power. His success seems tied to his defense and BABIP (.368 last year). I am not sure what is so good about a 36 year old, slow, light-hitting 3Bman who refuses to draw walks.
Steamer and ZIPS both project OBP under .300 and SLG under .400 for Uribe in 2014, and I see no reason to think they are wrong.
What am I missing? As far as I can see, Uribe should be happy to have a utility role as a defensive specialist at 2B, 3B and SS.
*Please stop the “I’m not a robot” thing. I think everybody would agree it is time for that to go away.
So says the guy who is such a robot he doesn’t understand that Uribe is the heart and soul of the Dodgers.
But that’s the thing about players with measurable heart and soul. They always manage to maintain their previous heart levels when demoted to a bench role, and their soul numbers only take a minor hit. Uribe would still provide at least 3 quanta of heart and sould from the bench.
Have the Dodgers given up on Alex Guerrero? They’ve only had him for a year.
This guy is going to be 31 next year when he has a shot to play full time. So the Dodgers are basically paying $68 mils and hoping to get maybe 2 or 3 seasons of average play at 3rd base out of him. That is insane. If this were a free agent deal, this is worse than Nick Markakis to the Braves. It’d be on the top 10 list of bad free agent moves. Just because the Dodgers have a lot of money does not mean when they spend it on something useless that its less bad. A bad deal is a bad deal. And what does this say about Corey Seager? They must think he is going to stick at SS. Why else pay this much for another 3rd baseman? He’s not going to be able play at 2b at his size and his age. 6’2 220 no way that is happening.
Olivera appears to be more around 200 than 220, but there are several current second baseman around that size (Zobrist, Walker, Murphy, etc.), so to suggest that it’s an impossibility based on his measurements is pretty silly. The more legitimate concern is the confirmation that Olivera does have a slight tear in his UCL. If it hasn’t healed after being out of baseball for a full year then I don’t see how he’s going to avoid an eventual TJ.
Olivera appears to be more around 200-210 than 220 and there are several current second baseman around that size (Zobrist, Walker, Murphy, etc.), so to suggest that it’s an impossibility based on his measurements is pretty silly. The more legitimate concern is the confirmation that Olivera does have a slight tear in his UCL. If it hasn’t healed after being out of baseball for a full year then I don’t see how he’s going to avoid an eventual TJ.
Olivera has a good chance to replace Uribe at 3B this year, and to replace Kendrick at 2B next year.
Uribe steadfastly refuses to draw walks (3.7% last year), has no speed, modest power, and is a 36 year old whose offense is fueled almost entirely by an unsustainable BABIP (.368 last year). Uribe plays good defense at 3B, and could probably be passable at 2B, SS, 1B and corner OF… that makes him a super-utility player.
Olivera has a track record of drawing a lot of walks, hitting consistently without too many strikeouts, with reasonably good power, defense and speed. In every regard he is better than Uribe, and he is 6 years younger.
An AAV of $10 million is not much these days. If Olivera is even reasonably good he will earn every penny of his contract.
Dodger fans love Uribe and fail to see his flaws. He is a good defensive player who can hit a bit, but at 36 he should not automatically put Olivera on the bench.
“In every regard he is better than Uribe”
Except for the “never having proven any of this in the big leagues before” part. Really, though, there’s no conflict here. It’s going to take some time for Olivera’s paperwork to get finalized, then he’ll need to have some time to get acclimated/be in the minors, and by then, Uribe will have probably injured himself. There’s more than enough room for both to co-exist in 2015.
I’ve always been an a bit of an Uribe skeptic, and I generally love the job Zaidi and Friedman have done, but I think you’re selling Uribe quite a bit short.
His defense at 3B is *superb*, and he’s been very valuable (8.6 fWAR) over the past two seasons. You cite his projected sub-.300 OBP and sub-.400 SLG as evidence he’s not fit to be starter, but in reality those are arbitrary endpoints.
Both Steamer and ZiPS see Uribe as a near-average hitter (93 and 95 wRC+, respectively) even after BABIP regression. Combined with his projected excellent defense, and you have a very productive player on a per-game basis. Steamer sees 1.8 fWAR in just 94 games, while ZiPS sees 2.3 fWAR in 97 games. That’s great production.
The bigger concern about Uribe is his health–he hasn’t reached 500 PAs in five years, and at his age there’s not much to suggest he’ll start now. So, if there’s a short-term justification for this signing, it’s that it is extremely unlikely that Uribe, Rollins, and Kendrick will all be healthy the entire year.
I’m still not really a fan of the signing, because in the short-term the Dodgers have a ton of other IF options–Justin Turner, Alex Guerrero, Enrique Hernandez, and Darwin Barney. So maybe this reflects a lack of faith in Turner/Guerrero, or extreme pessimism about everyone’s ability to stay healthy.
I think the Dodgers are seeing that Kendrick, Uribe, and Rollins are all likely to be gone next year, and possibly paying Olivera a year before he realizes his value is worth it to them in order to have options in 2016. I’m still not in love with giving a six year contract to a player with his age and question marks, but I have to imagine that’s the reasoning.
Spa City.
Uribe is on the team for Defense not offense. Although he was pretty clutch at times last season with his bat.
The craziest thing to me is that there is almost no protection in the contract for a torn UCL. They get to keep him at age 37 for $1 million? Oh, great.
At what point would it be cheaper for the Dodgers to just purchase Cuba?