2015 Offensive Projections — Interactive

Using the FanGraph’s Depth Charts tool, I created a data visualization for batters’ offensive output using on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) as the primary statistic. Pitchers have been excluded. The Depth Chart tool takes projections from both ZIPS and Steamer and accounts for playing time creating projections for counting stats (PA, WAR, etc.) and team performance. The Positional Power Rankings being released this week use the Depth Charts as well.

The histogram below creates an overview of the entire league showing the OPS distribution, which is normal with a skew to the right reflecting the infrequency of elite offensive players.

2015 OPS Projections Histogram

The data visualization includes both the individual player OPS (green circles) and the team OPS (yellow bars). The team OPS isn’t the simple average of the player OPS; it is calculated by weighing each player’s OPS by plate appearances, which are represented by the size of the circles. Finally, to give you an idea of the distribution for each team, the gray shading represents the 25th-75th percentiles.

The data visualization is INTERACTIVE with tooltips so please spend feel free to explore it.

The Rockies top the list due to park factors, which is why most of FanGraph’s preseason coverage uses park-adjusted stats like WAR to compare players. The elite offensive players really stand out from the pack being far beyond the 75th percentile and receiving well over 500 PA, and unsurprisingly Mike Trout has the highest OPS projection. You can spot defensive specialists and catchers by looking at the low end of the OPS projection and finding players with a high number of plate appearances.

The projections are current as of 3/23/2015.

I build things here.

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9 years ago

I find these projections offensive!