Dodgers Trade for Brian Dozier, Basically
Sometimes there are trade rumors that aren’t really true. We tend not to know about those until after the fact, but the false rumors tend to be the fleeting ones. Then there are the rumors that just don’t go away. That’s when you know there’s smoke. And there was all kinds of smoke billowing out of the rumors that linked the Dodgers to Brian Dozier.
It all added up, and there was no point in anyone issuing any denials. The Dodgers needed a second baseman, and Dozier is a good one. The Twins could stand to flip some quality assets, and Dozier is a good one. We got to know more than we usually do — the Dodgers put Jose De Leon on the table. That’s where the teams got stuck. The Dodgers liked what they’d be getting, and the Twins felt the same. They just couldn’t reach an agreement on a second prospect to go to Minnesota. The Twins held out, and the Dodgers wouldn’t budge.
And so, in the end, the Dodgers haven’t added Brian Dozier. Instead, they called up the Rays, and added basically Brian Dozier. The cost was De Leon, and nothing else.
Dave already talked about this a little last week. The Dodgers were very clearly in the market for help, and Logan Forsythe was present as a Dozier alternative. Forsythe is the lesser-known player, which is saying something, given that Dozier himself is a relatively little-known player. But while Dozier’s is the bigger name in baseball circles, it might not be possible to find two more similar second basemen. You can see why the Dodgers elected to go this route; Dozier just wasn’t worth the stress.
Forsythe bats right-handed, and according to our player page, he stands 6’1, 195. He was born in January of 1987. Dozier bats right-handed, and according to our player page, he stands 6’0, 190. Dozier is under contract for two more years, and $15 million. Forsythe is under contract for one more year, but there’s also a 2018 club option, and the combined value is $14.75 million. They’re effectively equal, given that it would take a lot for Forsythe’s option to be declined.
Dozier is something of a late bloomer, and he really took off in 2014. Forsythe is a late bloomer himself, and he took off in 2015. He’s been a regular player the last two years, playing mostly second base. Here is how the two players compare over these past two seasons.
| Player | PA | K-BB% | wRC+ | Hard-Soft% | Contact% | 2B UZR | 2B DRS | UZR WAR/600 | DRS WAR/600 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Dozier | 1395 | 12% | 117 | 13% | 79% | 2 | -2 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| Logan Forsythe | 1182 | 12% | 119 | 20% | 81% | -1 | 9 | 3.5 | 3.9 |
By strikeouts and walks, they’ve been the same. By overall batting value, they’ve been the same. UZR sees Dozier as, very slightly, the superior defender, but DRS disagrees with that, so we can compromise and assume they’re essentially equal there, too. I’ve calculated two WAR rate stats, one using UZR like usual, and the other plugging in DRS instead. You can hardly tell the numbers apart. Forsythe has the worse projection, but he’s being penalized for what he was in 2014 and earlier, and that’s just no longer too relevant.
Of course, Dozier just slugged a bunch of home runs. Forsythe, not so much. Dozier is thought of as more of a power source, while Forsythe runs the superior BABIPs. But for one thing, as the wRC+ up there shows, it doesn’t mean much in the end. And Dozier has played in the more homer-friendly environment. Both hitters have run higher-than-average launch angles, and if you can believe it, Forsythe has posted the better average exit velocities in each of the last two years. Dozier has the homers, but Forsythe has the contact quality.
If there’s one place where the players really diverge, it’s in where their batted balls go. Dozier has developed a reputation for trying to pull everything to left, and as much as that might feel exploitable, it’s clearly worked for him for this long. Forsythe used to be more of a pull guy, but this past year, he reached a new level in opposite-field hitting.
| Season | Split | PA | ISO | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Opposite | 26 | 0.077 | -22 |
| 2012 | Opposite | 70 | 0.043 | 12 |
| 2013 | Opposite | 33 | 0.094 | 62 |
| 2014 | Opposite | 67 | 0.111 | 64 |
| 2015 | Opposite | 107 | 0.125 | 86 |
| 2016 | Opposite | 108 | 0.318 | 164 |
Forsythe just had 17 extra-base hits the other way, with eight homers. Before last year, he totaled 20 extra-base hits the other way, with two homers. He was one of just 21 players to have at least 100 batted balls to the pull side, up the middle, and to the opposite field, with hard-hit rates of at least 30% in every direction. Though Forsythe’s overall numbers didn’t surge forward, he showed signs of becoming a more complete hitter, which makes him easier to buy into.
Forsythe and Dozier just don’t look that different. Dozier has a slightly longer track record, and he provides maybe a little more on the bases. But you can see why the Dodgers settled here. If Forsythe is worse, he’s probably only a little bit worse, and that’s not worth adding another quality prospect. Giving up De Leon is already tough.
That’s another key point here. Even though I’ve spent all this space effectively calling Logan Forsythe underrated, Jose De Leon is his own kind of underrated. Actual observers have never loved him quite as much as statistical analysts, but the minor-league numbers are extraordinary. As a starter in the upper levels, De Leon has struck out literally a third of all the batters he’s faced. While he’s done that, he’s also run a single-digit rate of walks. The two best things a pitcher can do are throw strikes and miss bats. De Leon, to this point, has done that against quality competition. His major-league sample is just 17 innings.
Among those who scout the stat line, De Leon looks fantastic. His fastball comes in around 91 – 92, so it’s not easily dismissed, and he’s really known for his changeup. If there’s one thing left for him to do, it’s improve his breaking ball. That’s why he’s considered unfinished, but already just having one good secondary pitch gives him a leg up. And with that pitch being a changeup, De Leon is strong against opposite-handed bats.
Oh, but there’s that other thing, too — we’ve just talked about De Leon on the mound. He missed a stretch of time last season with arm soreness, and that’s one of those classic red flags. I already said the two best things a pitcher can do are throw strikes and miss bats, but all the talent in the world doesn’t mean anything if you have trouble making consistent turns. As much as every young pitcher is a health risk, one has to consider De Leon’s risk level to some degree elevated. I’d say that’s why the Dodgers were willing to trade De Leon in the first place. They have the depth to absorb this, but De Leon could lose a chunk of his value overnight.
For the Rays, it’s always the same. They’re a little worse off today than they were yesterday, but they added more surplus value. De Leon could bust, but he’s theirs for up to six years, and he seems like he’s already a big-league starter. This gives the Rays the option of moving another big-league starter, and on and on it goes. Every year, you can squint and see the Rays as fringe contenders. They’re right there again, with another intriguing pitching staff. Maybe things’ll go better than they did in 2016. Couldn’t really go worse.
As for the Dodgers, I wouldn’t say this was something they needed to do, but second base was the biggest hole. So it’s filled now, filled with another Dodgers player who’s better than people think, and the Dodgers as a whole are better than people think as a consequence. Multiple projection systems see the Dodgers as presently being the best team in baseball, and that’s important, since they might have the strongest second-place challenger. The Giants are good, but the Dodgers are better. The gap is widened, with the Dodgers having found an alternative to the player they wanted the most.
The offseason didn’t end up with Brian Dozier going to California. But in a way, it really did, at least in the way the Dodgers care about most. Your move, Minnesota.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
MISLEADING!
But also good and interesting.
TRUE
“Giving up De Leon is already tough.”
No it isn’t. Getting Something for De Leon is the __point__. Jose De Leon is the chariot in Cinderella.
Jose De Leon did not have some arm soreness last year, De Leon had “shoulder inflammation” and this is a continuation of shoulder inflammation which has dogged De leon every year of his minor league career. Despite being a starter De leon has exhibited work loads that resemble a relief pitcher.
Jose De leon’s shoulder is the clock in Cinderella, the hands rapidly moving toward twelve midnight. The “Dream Team” knows what happens to De leon when the clock strikes twelve. The goal of the Dodgers’ F.O. was to “get something for De leon” before he turns into a pumpkin.
Is his shoulder a clock or a chariot? Pick a side.
I think most folks that think the Rays cleaned up here undervalue the risk with DeLeon and underrate how good of a player Forsythe has been and figures to be going forward. The Rays could absolutely win this deal hands down, but a lot of that is up to the arm of a young man. The risk associated here makes me queasy, but the chance to get a mid to top of rotation guy would be hard to pass up.
Well-written article. I’m interested to see who will play 2nd for the Rays. I think Brad Miller would be a good fit there & probably quite a bit more valuable at 2B than if he plays 1B. Then they’ll probably sign Carter to play 1B with Franklin as their infield utility man.
I think Chase Utley makes a lot of sense on a cheap 1 year deal for Tampa.
Pretty sure at this stage of his career he wants to stay in SoCal or likely retire.
I’m not sure he can replicate last year’s performance now that he’s one year older and TB have a ton of guys who they can stick at 2B: Miller, Franklin, Beckham, Duffy (if Robertson comes up later in the year).
I think HR’s are way too undervalued. Forsythe is no Dozier
Home runs by themselves aren’t enough (see Chris Carter). Other factors are relevant for evaluating a player’s worth.
Reads article seeing every point of evidence showing Forsythe is basically Dozier, concludes Forsythe is not Dozier.
I mean, superficially, I guess…but this feels a little like saying that someone basically traded for Javier Baez because they gave up a little less to get Kolten Wong…very similar career numbers on offense and defense thus far and very similar projections…but I gotta feel like, you know, no one really thinks those two things are alike.
Not a great comparison. Baez is still so young and raw, especially at the plate. He could conceivably improve to the point where he is one of the better players in baseball; I don’t think anybody sees that in Wong. Dozier and Forsythe are 29 and 30 respectively, so they’ve likely both already peaked.
Baez isn’t that young, and despite potential, hasn’t really improved, yet (has yet to be a league average hitter), and he’s “only” 2 years younger than Wong.
In the Dozier-Forsythe comparison, it cherry picks to include Forsythe’s one really good season, why not look at the last 4 years or note that Dozier has been consistently better at many things than Forsythe? Neither comparison is perfect, but projections (which use more data) have Forsythe worth about 1/2 as much as Dozier next year, which is about what most people would expect.
I can kinda see the comparison, but Baez is a plus SS & 3B and might be the best defensive 2B in the game.
2+ years younger and averaging a .735 OPS the last 2 years to Wongs sub .700 – plus hitting twice as many homeruns in half the ABs. Wong got sent down last year
Also as far as improving, Baez cut his k rate from 40+% to 24%
Baez’s floor is Wong. His ceiling is tremendous – The Cubs could trade Baez for a ton. What would Wong get? He’s got a nice contract and is only 26.
According to Andrew Perpetua’s awesome xStats; Forsythe’s xAVG/XOBP/xSLG was .280/.342/.478. He was unlucky last season, this could be a huge success for the Dodgers if he can repeat
Jeff! Good writing! Duh! Jeff wrote it! Of course it’s good!
But! Season-to-date isn’t a projection, except sometimes in the case of miraculous velocity rises and falls. Last year isn’t a projection, either, nor is last-two-years – though the latter is close.
And that graph – it’s persuasive, because it pinpoints that there was a change in mechanics, and the mechanics changed to an oppo approach, changed in a way that gruff college coach types, in between puffs of their extra-menthols, would regard as The Proper Way to Hit Your Baseballs. It’s not a hard sell.
But as J. Cross and the Lichtmans would point out, just tossing out good data is dangerous. Roberto Perez having Bell’s Palsy and not being able to close his eyes for a season? Other non-recurring circumstances? Doesn’t seem unreasonable. Having a different approach? Being worse? There’s a real risk to reading too much into changes, even identifiable ones.
Which is why the Padres or something should sign Zach Walters.
I guess my one thought against Forsythe (or maybe just for Dozier) is that Dozier is coming off a 5.9 WAR season where Forsythe missed some games and is coming off a 2.8 WAR season. Regession is expected, for both, and projections tend to favor Dozier 3.1 WAR to Forsythe 1.8. So not sure what that extra prospect would be worth but you got to hope he’s worth around 2.6 WAR over two seasons.
Projections don’t have Forsythe getting a full complement of PA’s yet, so quoting a counting stat like WAR may be misleading here.
I disagree. Steamer didn’t forecast Forsythe to play in 95 games and get 415 PAs by accident. That was a prediction based on his likelihood to miss games. On a WAR/600 basis he and Dozier are pretty similar (2.2 to 2.9).
On the other hand, ZIPS sees Dozier as unequivocally better, both in the WAR/600 category (3.9 to 3.0), and in the total WAR category (4.3 to 2.5).
I’m not sure where Mobley got his 1.8 WAR forecast for Forsythe, as the lowest number I can see on here is 1.9 WAR, in the depth charts.
I’m surprised to see how similar in production the two have been over the last two seasons, but that obscures how very different they have actually been. Besides their highly dissimilar hitting profiles, Dozier was massively better than Forsythe this year, and it’s this year that made him such a coveted trade target. I’m surprised the Dodgers gave up De Leon for Forsythe.
Looks like the Twins over played their hand here. Dozier won’t be worth more at the deadline or next offseason with only 1yr left on his contract. And with the new CBA, the pick you receive for a departing free agent who rejected a QO is basically worthless.
The Twins passed on a worthless offer from the Dodgers. It is highly likely that whatever the Twins get for Dozier will be worth a lot more than Jose De Leon’s chronically inflamed shoulder.
We get it. You don’t like De Leon.
Or liberals. Don’t forget them.
If Dozier turns down a QO and signs for at least $50 million – which seems likely – then the pick that the Twins get under the new CBA would be the same as under the old: sandwich pick after Round 1.
I agree that’s considerably less valuable than what Dozier would bring back in a trade, but it’s far more than worthless.
Would Forsythe probably lead off in this lineup? He did last year in TB and went 76-20-52 in 127 games. Could we see 90-20-70?
“Forsythe has the worse projection, but he’s being penalized for what he was in 2014 and earlier, and that’s just no longer too relevant.”
Eh, I don’t think it’s that easy. I mean, if it is that easy, we should plug the better history-weighting logic into Marcel and do a validation run.
I get the point, but it is misleading. Partly because of the time frame chosen (it only works and not all that well, when comparing two years, not last year, not 3 years not 4, etc..). Dozier has 4 straight years of over 2.5 WAR. He’s had 2/3 last seasons over 4.7 WAR. Forsythe’s career high is 4.0. He is younger than Forsythe, a better fielder, less injury prone, a longer track record of success, and a better hitter. Steamer has Dozier at being a 3.1 WAR player this year and Forsythe at being 1.4. Seems about right and those are not comparable players. Dodgers gave up too much for Forsythe, Twins held out for too much for Dozier and the big winners are the Rays who got an elite pitching prospect for a good 30 YO 2Bman.
Agreed 100%, on all points. The 2-year timeframe is indeed highly prejudicial, and Dozier’s vastly superior record of durability is pretty much ignored in the analysis, unless I missed it.
Dozier has played between 147 and 157 games for 4 years running, while Forsythe has played more than 127 games just once in the last 7 years — this is really, really important.
I legitimately don’t know the answer to this because I wasn’t paying attention to Forsythe until he started to break out with the Rays, but isn’t Forsythe’s lack of games prior to 2015 related more to not being played as an everyday starter than a lack of durability? Or did he have injuries with the Padres?
He had some injuries – http://www.prosportstransactions.com/baseball/Search/SearchResults.php?Player=Logan+forsythe&Team=&BeginDate=&EndDate=&DLChkBx=yes&submit=Search
Not the worst track record, but he was on the 60 day DL in both 2012 and 2013 and also spent about a month on the DL in 2016.
You make some good points here (I agree Jeff’s 2 year time frame is probably too narrow), but I disagree with a few things.
1. The Dodgers know more about De Leon’s health than anyone else and they were shopping him all offseason. Not saying he’s damaged goods, but I think its fair to assume he’s more risky than other elite pitching prospects due to his shoulder.
2. We can’t really say that the Dodgers overpaid for Forsythe without knowing what Minnesota wanted in exchange for Dozier. Some reports suggested they wanted someone like Alvarez or Buehler on top of De Leon. That would just be too much to give up for LA. But if it was something like De Leon plus a guy like Stripling they probably should’ve pulled the trigger.
I definitely agree that the Twins overplayed their hand here. The Dodgers were simply the most logical landing spot for Dozier; I can’t foresee a contender needing Dozier as badly as the Dodgers did barring injury. Dozier is also a streaky player who could potentially lose value by midseason.
It seems likely the Twins overplayed their hand, but it’s also a pretty bad market to be selling a 2B. If the Dodgers only offered De Leon + marginal prospect, I don’t think it’s far-fetched for the Twins to think they could get at worst a similar package at the deadline when there *may* be more suitors.
I’m not convinced the Dodgers were concerned with his shoulder as opposed to simply believing that his ceiling was lower than a number of other guys in the system. His prospect stature combined with the Dodgers’ prospect pitching depth simply made him the most obvious trade chip in the system.
The Dodgers have a very crowded rotation. Even with all their injuries last season, De Leon received only a few starts. He’s basically insurance for the Dodgers and therefore has more value to them as a trade chip.
I was under the impression that De Leon’s arm soreness early last year was a ruse to keep his innings down. Seems weird to discount him for that, if true.
Wow! That’s some slick propaganda by “The Dream Team”. De Leon has suffered from shoulder inflammation throughout his minor league career. Look up his minor league numbers. He’s been a starter but puts in a relief pitcher’s workload.
I thought that these were fun:
vLHP
vRHP
Nice try. You have manipulated the numbers by reducing the sample size. These are two different players. The Dodgers went cheap and overpaid for an average 2nd baseman. They would have been better off over paying for someone with a track record like Dozier. Good news for the Cubs.
Seemingly, there is a new expectation within the league that championship contenders should pay a little extra to acquire talent, highlighted by the Cubs’ acquisition of Chapman, the Dodgers with Hill/Reddick, and Indians with Miller.
Within those constraints, it’s a pretty good deal for the Dodgers to give up DeLeon straight up. He had nothing left to do in the minors, but would be squeezed for innings at the ML level, which would fail to maximize his development. His durability has been an issue, and it’s reasonable to think the Dodgers value not only Alvarez and Buehler higher, but Brock Stewart as well (I personally do).
I agree about Alvarez being ahead of DeLeon, but I’m ambivalent about the other two you mentioned. Walker Buehler especially needs to log some pro innings.
I’m not as comfortable saying that the trade values template has changed. More specifically, the Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman deals shouldn’t be lumped together, I don’t think.
The Injuns got 14 months of Miller, plus perhaps as many as 3 Octobers. The Cubs got 2 months of Chapman, plus one postseason. Also, at contract’s end, Cleveland could conceivably receive draft pick compensation if Miller departs for greener fields. The Cubs of course got nada for Chapman.
While the Indians surely gave up (incrementally) more for Andrew than the Cubs did for Aroldis, Cleveland might receive as much as 4, 5, even 6 times more high-quality innings in return.
The issue isn’t just whether Buehler is better than De Leon but also how their general market value compares to what the Dodgers think of them. Buehler has way less trade value than De Leon.
Of course Forscythe is just as valuable as Dozier. It’s simple: Friedman and his saber team are geniuses, so they can’t be wrong. I don’t know what the fuss is about.
Your tone may be too gruff by a hair, and you’re exaggerating the bias by a bit. But yes, there’s little doubt that the Dodgers are among the Fangraphs Preferred Front Offices(TM), and unfortunately the requisite filtering will therefore (subconsciously, of course) be applied to each of their dealings.
Think about it. In analyzing any other offseason trade, a Fangraphs writer would ordinarily place a great deal of emphasis on the computer projections of the various talents — the total expected WAR, not the rate stats. But not this time.
Sullivan is one of the best guys writing about baseball on the internet, but this piece may as well be a Dodger press release.
While I understand the point that the author is trying to make, the idea that Forsythe projects to be an adequate substitute for the Dodger’s first choice of Dozier, I can’t get over the feeling that the reductionist logic at play in the article is a little on the disingenuous side.
I agree; there are clearly several stats and metrics that have been similar over the past two seasons for Dozier and Forsythe. But don’t the WAR totals show that their overall production has been pretty different, despite those similarities? And don’t the projections show that Dozier will likely produce more in the next two seasons as well? I’d also think the uncertainty surrounding Forsythe (a 30 year old with 7.9 career WAR) is quite a bit higher than that of Dozier (a 29 year old with 15.9 career WAR), but that’s more of a gut feeling.
I agree that the Dodgers found an adequate substitute, but the article didn’t convince me that the two players are basically the same.
I think the plus part of the DeLeon plus is being under emphasized. It was rumored in some outlets that Bellinger was the 2nd piece requested. While that is obviously a huge stretch to ask, it’s not likely the hangup was over an insignificant piece. The Dodgers farm is 10-12 deep full of good prospects; Verdugo, Calhoun, Alvarez, Buehler, are all top 100 as well.
It’s a little bit of a leap of faith for me. Clearly, Dozier is coming off of a six-win season, and Forsythe is not. However, I do not believe that Dozier actually has much superior baseball skills, compared to Forsythe. I can’t get past the fact that Forsythe has actually hit the ball harder over the past couple seasons. I think, from a skills perspective, one should see the two as pretty similar moving forward. Dozier is the better baserunner, and that would give him a little edge. But I am a Forsythe believer.
As a Twins’ fan, this is just depressing. But, hey, at least they can lose 85+ games while watching Dozier hit….
I don’t see how this can be considered a good trade for the Dodgers unless De Leon’s medicals are horrendous. The dodgers traded a player who is already projected to hit 2.4 WAR in only 120 innings as a rookie, a super high floor talented pitcher, for a player that is projected for less than that this season by steamers. The dodgers are giving up the more talented player right now, who has 4 more years of control, and is cheaper, to improve a position by about a win.
Inevitably trades are not always about just accumulating the most overall value. Other considerations include maximizing value/production on the field at a given window. The most common example is a team trading prospects for a late-season push to make and succeed it playoffs. I’m pretty sure the Cubs have zero regrets for the price they paid for one-half season of Chapman regardless how the surrendered prospects do.
I understand making win now moves, and so I wouldn’t have had any issue with de leon plus for Dozier, because even though I think de leon will produce more value over their team controls than Dozier, it is a win now move. However, De Leon is already better than Forsythe by Steamers. I understand you pay a price for reallocating value on your team but this move literally lessens the talent on the team while paying more and losing control. I would have understood moving another prospect like Verdugo who is probably around the same prospect ranking but isn’t big league ready right now, but De Leon is already a good starter
DeLeon might be more valuable in 120 innings as a pitcher than Forsythe in 95 games as a second baseman, but you’re still missing a couple parts of the analysis here:
1. DeLeon is like 8th or 9th on the Dodgers’ starting rotation depth chart. He wouldn’t get 120 innings for them.
2. The drop-off from DeLeon to Ross Stripling or Brock Stewart is far less than the drop-off from Forsythe to Charlie Culberson or Chris Taylor.
These trades don’t happen in a vaccuum. You have to look at the total effect to the team, based on what else is on the roster.
I understand that this move improved the team, but value is value. I have no issue with Forsythe, but I think De Leon is a lot more valuable than 2 years of an average 2b. I have a hard time believing, unless the industry is a lot more skeptical of De Leon than the projections, that a 2-3 win pitcher already without considering any improvement with team control for 6 years couldn’t have fetched a better piece than a 2 win 2b for 2 years. De Leon is a big league player and teams deal from strength for needs all the time without giving up massive value. If De Leon is truly blocked and you have to trade him, trade him for another prospect or a more valuable player with less control and then trade another prospect for Forsythe.