Does Your Favorite Team Still Have a Shot at the Playoffs?
When the season is just 60 games long, it can be hard to wrap your head around seemingly simple concepts like whether or not a team has a decent shot of making the playoffs. In a normal season, we’ve had four months to assess teams by the time we get to the trade deadline, and get two months after that to see them potentially reap the benefits of the moves they make. Halfway through this season, however, there hasn’t been much time for separation, and instead of having two months left to go, there’s just a single, month-long sprint to the finish. Add in the expanded playoffs, and there’s even more confusion regarding what constitutes a good shot at the playoffs. To attempt to provide some clarity, I’ll go through every team’s playoff odds in tiers and compare them to other teams in similar positions over the last half-dozen seasons.
First, here are the playoff odds for every team through Thursday with roughly a month to go in the season:
| AL East | W | L | Make Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 16 | 11 | 98.20% |
| Rays | 21 | 11 | 99.70% |
| Blue Jays | 15 | 14 | 66.10% |
| Red Sox | 10 | 21 | 4.30% |
| Orioles | 14 | 16 | 10.20% |
| AL Central | W | L | Make Playoffs |
| Twins | 20 | 12 | 99.20% |
| White Sox | 19 | 12 | 98.40% |
| Indians | 19 | 12 | 98.60% |
| Royals | 12 | 19 | 6.20% |
| Tigers | 13 | 16 | 11.00% |
| AL West | W | L | Make Playoffs |
| Astros | 17 | 14 | 97.30% |
| Athletics | 22 | 10 | 99.90% |
| Angels | 10 | 22 | 4.40% |
| Rangers | 11 | 19 | 3.90% |
| Mariners | 13 | 20 | 2.60% |
| NL East | W | L | Make Playoffs |
| Braves | 18 | 12 | 96.50% |
| Mets | 13 | 16 | 61.40% |
| Phillies | 12 | 14 | 56.20% |
| Nationals | 11 | 17 | 18.70% |
| Marlins | 14 | 12 | 32.70% |
| NL Central | W | L | Make Playoffs |
| Cubs | 18 | 12 | 94.80% |
| Reds | 13 | 17 | 46.60% |
| Brewers | 13 | 17 | 48.20% |
| Cardinals | 11 | 11 | 63.50% |
| Pirates | 9 | 19 | 0.60% |
| NL West | W | L | Make Playoffs |
| Dodgers | 24 | 9 | 100.00% |
| Padres | 19 | 14 | 93.90% |
| Rockies | 16 | 15 | 42.60% |
| Giants | 15 | 18 | 30.40% |
| Diamondbacks | 13 | 19 | 13.80% |
And in graph form:
While percentages are helpful in getting a sense of a team’s chances, sometimes it can be better to frame those numbers in terms of real examples. Our playoff odds page goes back to the 2014 season, so we’ll look at the 2014-2019 seasons on September 1 and compare them to the end of the season. It is possible that having just one month of in-season data would (or should) make us less sure about a team’s present talent level compared to having five months’ worth in those other seasons, so if you want to mentally correct for even more randomness in this already wild season, feel free to do so.
Locks and Near-Locks (80%-100%)
Teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, Oakland A’s, Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres
We’ll start with the teams that have at least an 80% chance of making the playoffs this season. In the above group, every team’s chances are actually above 90%, which isn’t too different from the teams that have had odds above 80% historically. The table below shows the teams with at least an 80% playoff chance on September 1 since 2014:
| Team | Year | Playoff Odds on 9/1 | Made Playoffs? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | 2019 | 100.0% | Y |
| Braves | 2019 | 100.0% | Y |
| Dodgers | 2019 | 100.0% | Y |
| Yankees | 2019 | 100.0% | Y |
| Angels | 2014 | 100.0% | Y |
| Cardinals | 2015 | 100.0% | Y |
| Royals | 2015 | 100.0% | Y |
| Cubs | 2016 | 100.0% | Y |
| Nationals | 2016 | 100.0% | Y |
| Astros | 2017 | 100.0% | Y |
| Dodgers | 2017 | 100.0% | Y |
| Indians | 2017 | 100.0% | Y |
| Nationals | 2017 | 100.0% | Y |
| Indians | 2018 | 100.0% | Y |
| Red Sox | 2018 | 100.0% | Y |
| Yankees | 2018 | 100.0% | Y |
| Pirates | 2015 | 99.9% | Y |
| Red Sox | 2017 | 99.9% | Y |
| Astros | 2018 | 99.9% | Y |
| Nationals | 2014 | 99.8% | Y |
| Cubs | 2018 | 99.7% | Y |
| Twins | 2019 | 99.6% | Y |
| Rangers | 2016 | 99.6% | Y |
| Blue Jays | 2015 | 99.4% | Y |
| Athletics | 2014 | 99.2% | Y |
| Nationals | 2019 | 98.9% | Y |
| Diamondbacks | 2017 | 98.9% | Y |
| Dodgers | 2014 | 98.4% | Y |
| Orioles | 2014 | 98.3% | Y |
| Dodgers | 2016 | 97.4% | Y |
| Cubs | 2017 | 97.3% | Y |
| Indians | 2016 | 97.0% | Y |
| Yankees | 2015 | 96.7% | Y |
| Dodgers | 2015 | 96.5% | Y |
| Cubs | 2015 | 96.4% | Y |
| Astros | 2015 | 94.7% | Y |
| Giants | 2014 | 94.1% | Y |
| Blue Jays | 2016 | 94.1% | Y |
| Cardinals | 2019 | 89.5% | Y |
| Athletics | 2018 | 88.4% | Y |
| Mets | 2015 | 87.5% | Y |
| Red Sox | 2016 | 86.6% | Y |
| Giants | 2016 | 83.9% | Y |
| Dodgers | 2018 | 83.9% | Y |
| Cardinals | 2014 | 82.8% | Y |
| Tigers | 2014 | 81.4% | Y |
| Average/Success Rate | 96.5% | 100% |
While it might come as a surprise that none of the teams above blew their chances, given the small sample and the very high odds of half of those teams, all of them playing October baseball isn’t a huge statistical oddity. Plus, if we went back just a few more seasons, we’d see Atlanta, with playoff odds up over 95%, miss the playoffs. The 11 teams this season with 90%-plus odds aren’t guaranteed to make the postseason, but they’d have to really screw up over the next month to drop out of one of the 16 playoff spots entirely.
Good Chance (60%-80%)
Teams: St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets
There aren’t very many teams in the good-but-not-great chances area, but that mirrors what we’ve seen over the last few years as well:
| Team | Year | Playoff Odds on 9/1 | Made Playoffs? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 2019 | 76.2% | N |
| Yankees | 2017 | 74.6% | Y |
| Rays | 2019 | 73.3% | Y |
| Brewers | 2018 | 71.0% | Y |
| Cardinals | 2016 | 68.0% | N |
| Cardinals | 2018 | 67.4% | N |
| Braves | 2018 | 66.7% | Y |
| Indians | 2019 | 66.4% | N |
| Royals | 2014 | 65.1% | Y |
| Rockies | 2017 | 60.6% | Y |
| Average/Success Rate | 68.9% | 60% |
Last year’s Cubs team had the highest playoff odds on September 1 of any team to not make the playoffs since 2014. The Cardinals failed to make it twice in the last few years despite looked good heading into September, and last year’s Cleveland club also faltered. The Cardinals, Mets, and Blue Jays should probably make the playoffs, but there are a decent number of scenarios in which they don’t quite follow through.
50/50 (40%-60%)
Teams: Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies
There are 14 teams ahead of this quartet, so the odds would dictate that we should expect two of these clubs to make the playoffs.
| Team | Year | Playoff Odds on 9/1 | Made Playoffs? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 2015 | 54.8% | Y |
| Athletics | 2019 | 52.2% | Y |
| Brewers | 2014 | 50.7% | N |
| Tigers | 2016 | 50.7% | N |
| Phillies | 2018 | 42.6% | N |
| Twins | 2017 | 41.9% | Y |
| Average/Success Rate | 48.8% | 50% |
The Rockies bring up the rear here but even in that lower 40% range, one of the two teams above made the playoffs. So far we have 17 teams all with a very healthy shot of making the postseason.
Not Great (20%-40%)
Teams: San Francisco Giants, Miami Marlins
There may be some doubt about what kind of chances these teams actually have with just a month to go. While whether to add or subtract at the deadline is a difficult proposition for teams at this level in normal years, perhaps history can help guide their view:
| Team | Year | Playoff Odds on 9/1 | Made Playoffs? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | 2018 | 37.4% | N |
| Mariners | 2014 | 36.5% | N |
| Braves | 2014 | 36.4% | N |
| Pirates | 2014 | 36.2% | Y |
| Orioles | 2016 | 31.7% | Y |
| Angels | 2017 | 31.6% | N |
| Rockies | 2018 | 27.6% | Y |
| Astros | 2016 | 26.1% | N |
| Mets | 2016 | 25.9% | Y |
| Brewers | 2017 | 22.9% | N |
| Average/Success Rate | 31.2% | 40% |
A 30% chance at the playoffs feels low to me, but seeing four of the last 10 and three of the last seven teams make the playoffs with those odds makes the chances feel a bit more real. One-in-three isn’t a long shot; it’s the odds of an average player reaching base in any given plate appearance.
Long Shots (5%-20%)
Teams: Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals
These are the teams we don’t expect to make the playoffs, but that also aren’t totally out of it. It’s a bit odd to see the defending World Champions here, but losing Anthony Rendon to free agency and Stephen Strasburg to injury are pretty big blows. They, along with the Diamondbacks, have a lot of games to make up to get back in the race. It’s not impossible, though, and one team bucked the odds last season:
| Team | Year | Playoff Odds on 9/1 | Made Playoffs? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | 2015 | 18.4% | N |
| Pirates | 2016 | 17.9% | N |
| Angels | 2015 | 16.9% | N |
| Cardinals | 2017 | 16.9% | N |
| Orioles | 2017 | 14.8% | N |
| Rays | 2017 | 14.5% | N |
| Nationals | 2015 | 13.9% | N |
| Brewers | 2019 | 12.8% | Y |
| Mets | 2019 | 12.8% | N |
| Mariners | 2018 | 11.4% | N |
| Royals | 2017 | 11.1% | N |
| Rays | 2015 | 10.0% | N |
| Indians | 2014 | 9.4% | N |
| Red Sox | 2019 | 8.5% | N |
| Yankees | 2014 | 6.9% | N |
| Indians | 2015 | 6.9% | N |
| Rangers | 2017 | 6.6% | N |
| Marlins | 2016 | 6.1% | N |
| Giants | 2015 | 5.7% | N |
| Yankees | 2016 | 5.1% | N |
| Diamondbacks | 2019 | 5.0% | N |
| Mariners | 2017 | 5.0% | N |
| Average/Success Rate | 10.8% | 4.5% |
The Milwaukee Brewers’ odds of making the playoffs weren’t great at the start of September last year, but they benefited from the Cubs’ struggles down the stretch and made the postseason. The teams in this category aren’t likely to make the playoffs, and under normal circumstances, moving pending free agents for younger players might make a lot of sense.
Not Their Year (0%-5%)
Teams: Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Pittsburgh Pirates
There have been 86 teams to enter the month of September with playoff odds under 5% since 2014, and none of them have ended up in the postseason. Of those 86 teams, only 11 were even at 0.5% or higher, so there aren’t a ton of direct examples for most of the teams in this tier this season. I should note that the 2011 Braves’ counterpart from the first group is the St. Louis Cardinals, who were under 5% at the beginning of September and managed to make the playoffs and then win the World Series.
I think there’s a pretty good argument that 20 of baseball’s 30 teams are definitely in the playoff hunt, with a handful of others that could potentially play their way back in to it. Only five teams are so far out of it as to start planning for 2021, though what that actually looks like at this trade deadline is unclear. We have about a third of the league that should be preparing for October, a third that’s still trying to get there, and a third that make intriguing trade partners for the rest.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
In the discussion about the “locks,” you linked to a Coolstandings page supposedly showing Atlanta missing the playoffs. You accidentally linked the 2013 standings, when the Braves did make the playoffs. I assume you meant to link 2011.
Unfortunately, you have to put the date in yourself. When I pick Sep. 1 in 2011, the link just goes back to the default, which is 2013.
I do want to point out that the 2014 A’s, with their 99.2% chance on Sept. 1, did their best to avoid playing in the playoffs, only making the wild card game on the last day of the season. I still don’t believe making the wild card game ought to count as making the playoffs.
So your position is that the Nationals didn’t make the playoffs last year? I don’t exactly object–I do think their championship should be vacated, their franchise contracted, and their stadium razed on the grounds of general suckitude/uncoolness–but you’d have to admit that your usage isn’t exactly intuitive.
The Nationals also made the NLDS, NLCS, and World Series last year, so by his logic, the Nationals made the playoffs last year even though they also made the wild card…a play-in game for the playoffs.
It’s a weird way to think about it. “Making” the playoffs is usually separate from what you do there. Would one say that the 2015 Pirates, who went 98-64 and had the second-best record in MLB, did not make the playoffs because they lost to the Cubs in the wild card game?
Meh MLB refers to it both as a playoff and a play-in game in the official press announcement, so have your cake and eat it too.
https://www.baseball-almanac.com/wild_card/MLB_Wild_Card_Game.shtml
Is ESPN’s first regular season broadcast Opening Day baseball?
I just have a hard time picturing the Pirates winning 98 games.
Yeah, that’s weird but still accurate as far as I’m concerned. Besides, there were plenty of times before the Divisional Era and even some occasions within the Divisional Era (before the Wild Card era) where the 2nd best regular season team in MLB didn’t make it to the World Series or playoffs.
I just wish they’d expand the Wild Card match-ups to a best-of-3 series every season (while still keeping the playoff field at 10 teams) instead of these ridiculous play-in games.
How do you identify the 65-68 teams trying to play their way into the NCAA tournament? Did they make the tournament or not? If not, then it’s the same with the MLB one-game play-in, in my opinion.
it is a shame that we are even going to recognize these as playoff appearances – this needs a different label. This should not be lumped in with any past seasons as it means less in every real way. This isn’t an MLB season and these are not MLB playoffs. Someday when literally everyone makes it (all-star roster style) it will be asterisked but we need to asterisk this season too.
Couldn’t agree more.
I have bad news for you, and all of us: this is going to be the playoff format going forward. Owners get more playoff TV money, players have no direct financial incentive to preserve the competitive integrity of the regular season, it just makes too much sense from a business (as opposed to baseball) standpoint not to stick.
I thought we had dodged this bullet when the negotiations collapsed, but now that they’ve implemented it once, I think we’re stuck with it until they decide to expand to a 28-team playoff field.
Not really concerned with the playoff field, it was fine before, it can be fine now, that is the least of the issues.
I hate the argument that this is somehow less of a season. 162 games is still arbitrary, the best team by WAR or regular season record, or Pythagorean, etc rarely ends up winning. Are those championships worth less? This isn’t basketball, there is a ton more variance here, and the best team vs the worst team in the MLB is usually in the 2-1 range on any given day. Sometimes it is a little more, or a little less, but that is why they play the game. I hate to break it to you, but MLB playoffs were always one big luckfest anyways. Who the hell wants a game where the best team just always wins (Dodgers fans, I guess) the World Series? Playoffs aren’t even the same type of animal as the regular season. Plenty of teams are designed better for playoff baseball than regular season. This year for example imagine the Reds being the 8 seed and going with some combination of Bauer/Gray/Castillo over the course of 3 games. Baseball isn’t fair, best team doesn’t always win. How anyone can complain about this season meaning less is beyond me.
It is less of a season because of the changes due to covid.
No one wants to see the best team always win, but you do want to see the better teams win and advance more times than not like the NBA, and if you can’t do that then limit the number of teams. With 8 teams per league, why would I want to watch the two best teams go at it in August when they’re pretty much in the playoffs and one or both are likely to get bounced in a 3 game series against a mediocre team? As a baseball fan, thats why Im 100% against expanding the playoffs.
Of course, as a Orioles fan, I’m 100% behind this being the permanent format: A. It speeds up their rebuilding timeline, B. It keeps their window in being a playoff team open longer (though ironically enough had MLB had this format in the Showalter era the O’s still would have qualified for the playoffs the same number of times as they did under the current format).
“The Milwaukee Brewers’ odds of making the playoffs weren’t great at the start of September last year, but they benefited from the Cubs’ struggles down the stretch and made the postseason. ”
Sure, the Cubs 11-16 September helped, but I feel like the Brewers going 20-7 in September (mostly without Yelich) was more beneficial to their odds.
Cubs could have gone 15-12 & still missed the playoffs.
True, but by that logic, the Brewers could have also gone 15-12 and made the playoffs (assuming the Cubs still went 11-16).
They were both equally responsible.
There may be 20 teams in the playoff hunt, but it looks like 12 of them are in the NL. The AL looks pretty well set.
Of course, as the article pointed out, most of the historical odds are looking at over 120 games at this point. In the year of small sample sizes, nobody in the AL is more than 6 games out of a playoff spot. That’s hard to make up in a month, but has happened many times before. 2 good weeks from anybody in the bottom half (maybe even the Red Sox) or 2 bad weeks from the Blue Jays could really change the picture. Most of the top 7 in the AL look pretty safe because even a 4 – 10 stretch leaves them around .500 at worst, and 30 wins probably makes the second wild card.
The AL is pretty set, agreed. If someone from the AL makes a run it wouldn’t be the Red Sox. You have to have some resemblance of pitching to win any games. They have the worst starting pitching rotation in MLB history (I think, it was something close to that). And their offense isn’t good, either. Maybe better than this, but still not good. If anything I’d guess it would be the Rangers. I’d think it is more likely that a team offense gets hot for a few weeks than the Red Sox pitchers miraculously learn how to pitch.
I’m fine with the Braves making the playoffs, but really do not want them to win the “world series” during this year season. Save that for next year when you can win a normal seasons World Series. Not this tainted exhibition season.
This Braves fan will take a title in any form, with any asterisk people want to attach.
why not both.gif
You’re damn right Van Slyke
Is making the playoffs less valuable this year because of the increased number of playoff teams? I guess it depends on whether making the playoffs is valuable in itself, or whether it is only valuable because it gives you a chance at winning the World Series.
It is less valuable because of the different circumstances of the season. It is the Covid Season. All of the regulations put in and the differences to the game because of it are enough to make this illegitimate. It is an exhibition season. Nice distraction, gets people paid, but not legit.
It’s no more illegitimate than the 1942-45 seasons were.
Well, just making the playoffs this year isn’t as valuable as it usually is, as the total amount of postseason award shares available are way down, and you have to split them with more teams. It’s then much more valuable to be able to go all the way, since flags fly forever no matter how messed up the season is.
The benefit to making the playoffs over not is still the same; its good for overall team morale and beneficial in regards to bringing in free agents.
Will we ever see Trout in the playoffs again?
I realize it makes the research much simpler, but it’s really not a correct comparison to look at Sept 1 in past years because the teams are cramming more games into that calendar month. To take an extreme example: The Cardinals currently have 36 games left to play (of a 58 game schedule); in 2019, the date when they had 36 games left was August 22nd (by September 1 they had just 28 games games remaining). Then again, with all the 7-inning double headers the number of [i]innings[/i] left to play is a little closer, but I doubt it feels that way to the players.
The Blue Jays cant possibly have a two-thirds chance of making the playoffs when 8 other teams are near locks. The odds just dont add up.
Only 7 teams in the AL are near locks. Yankees, Rays, Twins, White Sox, Indians, A’s, Astros. The Blue Jays have a 1.5 game lead on the Orioles and a 2 game lead on the Tigers for that last spot.
Your math is kinda shaky there Waldo and did you see the dregs that were behind the Blue Jays. If i was a Blue Jays fan I would be lining up for playoff tickets.
Virtual playoff tickets
Ah, seven.
Somehow, the Brewers are only five games back despite running a -34 run differential and having a combined 0.8 combined fWAR for ALL their position players put together (skating by on that 4.1 fWAR for pitching, I guess). In this weird short sample they could obviously turn it around and indeed they’re even projected for positive run differential the rest of the way, but it’s wild they’re in that position.
I also think the Nationals have a better shot of turning things around than these odds indicate–they’re only six games back despite how much they seem to have struggled.
The remaining teams that have played that badly–the Pirates, Red Sox, Pirates, Mariners, Angels, Tigers, and especially the Rangers (bleeeccch)–stick a fork in them. Every single guy on those teams whose contracts are expiring is going to be gone one way or another. (I would also say the Royals too except their position that they should never pay money to get rid of a player, which could lead to some holdups)
The Tigers actually haven’t been horrible.
A negative 30 run differential over 29 games, driven by 0.2 fWAR from pitching, is pretty bad. Although that is better than they were last year, so maybe that’s your frame of reference.