Double-A Red Sox Pitchers: Bard, Ruiz and Workman,
Brandon Workman, a 24-year-old Texan, dominated an undermanned New Britain Rockcats lineup over six frigid innings last week. In 2010, he was selected out of the University of Texas by the Red Sox in second round of the Rule 4 Draft. In his first two full seasons he’s posted strong peripherals, striking out more than eight batters per nine innings and walking fewer than two. Early in 2013, he sits near the top of Carson Cistulli’s Eastern League SCOUT Leaderboard (see bottom of this post); but Workman’s statistics are misleading. He profiles as a reliever or as a spot-starter.
Workman is a large man. He’s listed at 6-foot-4 and 195 pounds, but he weighs more than that. While he is well-proportioned, he’s thick and unprojectable. His arm slot has been noticeably higher in 2013. In prior years, Workman used a three-quarter arm slot. Against New Britain last week, he was nearly over the top. His arm action was stiff and ridged and it’s unlikely his fastball gains more velocity should he move to the bullpen.
His arsenal consists predominately of an over-the-top fastball and a slider. Due to his high release point, Workman’s fastball works on a downward plane — but it features only slight sinking action. On a freezing night it sat between 88 mph and 92 mph and touched 93 mph. It’s an average offering that will play up because of Workman’s command. When I saw him, the right-handed pitcher worked both sides of the plate with ease and rarely fell behind a hitter after the first inning. Once ahead, Workman punished the Rockcats with his 11-5 slider. Workman was able to throw it with consistent shape and within the strike zone. At times it broke too early, which will be problematic at the highest level, but his command of the pitch will make it an asset he can use in any count.
If Workman can tighten up his slider he could feature a solid one-two punch out of the Boston bullpen. If a need arises, he could be in the majors soon. He spent 25 innings in Double-A last season — so he isn’t exactly repeating the level — but he’s polished enough to make the jump.
When Workman’s night came to an end, Daniel Bard took to the mount. Bard was once a relief ace for the Red Sox and the heir to Jonathan Papelbon, but after a failed attempt to convert him to starter he’s struggled to regain his past form. After a one-inning outing it was clear the road back to Boston will be a long one. Bard’s control of his fastball and slider was erratic. His fastball, which once touched triple digits, sat merely between 92 mph and 95 mph and touched 96 mph. The slider still had wicked movement, but, again, his ability to control the pitch evaded him. It’s early and the season — and Bard still has a quick arm — but one has to feel bad for him after the botched conversion.
Those in attendance — RotoGraphs/Bullpen Banter’s Al Skorupa, scouts and myself — unanimously agreed Pete Ruiz has a future as a big league reliever. Ruiz started his two-inning stint slowly, but his fastball has plenty of arm-side tail and touched 94 mph. He also featured a slider and a curveball, which he could throw for strikes. The slider was a tight, low-80s offering with 10-5 horizontal movement; the curve had 11-5 action in the mid-70s. He missed away with his fastball at times, but he has a three-pitch mix he can use in any count.
***
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Double-A Eastern League. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Texas League pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.
| Player | Team | Age | G | GS | IP | TBF | K | BB | xK% | xBB% | SCOUT- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Workman | Red Sox (AA) | 24 | 3 | 3 | 18.0 | 62 | 25 | 2 | 28.7% | 8.7% | 75 |
| Rafael Montero | Mets (AA) | 22 | 3 | 3 | 16.2 | 62 | 21 | 1 | 26.1% | 8.5% | 82 |
| Chad Beck | Blue Jays (AA) | 28 | 6 | 0 | 7.0 | 32 | 15 | 3 | 26.2% | 9.4% | 84 |
| Joel Carreno | Blue Jays (AA) | 26 | 6 | 0 | 6.1 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 25.7% | 9.2% | 85 |
| Chris Martin | Red Sox (AA) | 27 | 4 | 0 | 11.0 | 39 | 15 | 2 | 25.2% | 9.1% | 86 |
| Edward Paredes | Indians (AA) | 26 | 5 | 0 | 6.1 | 26 | 11 | 1 | 24.4% | 9.1% | 89 |
| T.J. House | Indians (AA) | 23 | 3 | 3 | 16.2 | 64 | 18 | 2 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 89 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates (AA) | 21 | 3 | 3 | 18.0 | 70 | 20 | 7 | 24.3% | 9.4% | 90 |
| Mauricio Robles | Phillies (AA) | 24 | 5 | 0 | 8.1 | 30 | 11 | 1 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 90 |
| Anthony Ranaudo | Red Sox (AA) | 23 | 2 | 2 | 10.0 | 35 | 12 | 2 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 90 |
Formerly of Bullpen Banter, JD can be followed on Twitter.
Good article, but this:
“Bard was once a relief ace for the Red Sox and the heir to Jonathan Papelbon, but after a failed attempt to convert him to starter he’s struggled to regain his past form … one has to feel bad for him after the botched conversion.”
is common revisionist history. Bard fell apart at the end of the season *before* his conversion and never recovered. Blaming his problem on attempting to start makes little sense. He hasn’t had any control at all since late 2011.
Yeah, I was told this on twitter. Sorry! Frankly, I’m too focused on the minors. But, I’m glad it’s a common mistake!
Very common, even among Red Sox fans who watched him fall apart at the end of 2011.
This. Everyone and their mother wants to blame the starting experiment for Bard’s problems.
While it certainly didn’t help matters, evidence is to the contrary. He was facing the exact same issues to close out the 2011 season as a, get this, reliever.
You almost literally repeated NS.
Brandon needs to be successful just for the inevitable “Workmanlike Performance” headlines.
Nice article. Workman has been kinda ignored since the Sox had him pitch in low A his first full year. But he has a highly regarded guy coming out of Texas BA, Kieth Law etc all had him as a top 20 prospect in the 2010 draft.
I saw him in Salem last year and the scout I was talking to had his fastball a bit consistently higher. Average about 91-92 he said. Also mentioned his Cutter was 88-90 and his best pitch. The few reports ive read besides this one also always mention that. Did he not throw it last night?
Corris, he didn’t throw a cutter that night in New Britain. I *hate* to speculate as to why but possibly because of the cold. It’s hard to say. I didn’t mention the cutter because I didn’t see it and I keep these reports to my and scouts observations from that sample. Guys change too much to assume old reports hold true.
Thanks for clarifying that. It just struck me as mildly odd. Admittedly I only saw him throw once but I do recall him throwing the cutter a good bit. Most likely id guess your guess right or the org just banned him using the pitch for a bit, yet it’s impossible to say.
Rumor has it (from Spring Training) that Workman is not supposed to use his cutter much this season. He was a little too reliant on it and needs to work on locating and sequencing his other pitches.
Great stuff, Jason. As you’ll see shortly, I’ve recently begun interviewing players too so I can find out this information straight from the source.
This is a weird question, but what’s the average error on radar guns? Not trying to get out of a ticket or anything, but those digits seem low to me for Bard, not that I don’t believe them, but is there any work on what the error is on radar guns? (Measurement reliability is the question, not statistical error term)
Go to page 21 on this pdf http://www.stalkerradar.com/pdf/011-0092-00%20Stalker%20Pro%20II%20Baseball%20operator%20manual%20Rev%20A.pdf
We were directly behind the plate with more than two guns clocking him. Hope this helps, sir.
Great- thanks. I don’t question the readings, just wondered this and figured I’d ask. Sad to see a fastball die.
FWIW, I also sat with a guy in Fort Myers who had him working 93-95 in spring training. The 100-mph fastball has been missing for a while now.
If you have any thoughts on Montero they would be much appreciated by Mets fan. Eno said his Mets prospect maven doesn’t think much of his secondary pitches and this his fastball won’t play in the majors, relies too much on his command in minors. Just drafted him in a dynasty league, curious if you have any thoughts….
I hope to catch Montero this year, so I don’t want to preempt that chance just yet. Here is a piece from last year Chris Blessing wrote at Bullpen Banter http://bullpenbanter.com/mets-prospect-rafael-montero-scouting-report/
That’s strange to see Workman’s arm slot lower. Do you think he is doing this on purpose or do you think it could be some nagging injury? I liked his arm slot before and he had plenty of success with it. It isn’t like he moved his arm slot to gain better movement on his fastball, so that’s weird.