Dreaming About Prince in Texas
The two teams most often connected to free agent slugger Prince Fielder are the Washington Nationals and the Texas Rangers. The Nationals are largely considered the leader in the clubhouse for the Fielder sweepstakes, though the Rangers reportedly met with Fielder and Scott Boras over the weekend for preliminary talks.
Signing Fielder to a long-term deal puts any organization into a precarious financial position. He is a legitimate +5 or +6 win player at this moment, but his defensive liabilities and his physical build have caused organizations to question whether that level of production will last over a five-plus year contract. Those concerns remain the primary reasons as to why the 27-year-old first baseman is still available.
Pushing aside those financial worries, though, and simply viewing baseball as athletic entertainment, Texas would perhaps be the most enthralling landing spot for Fielder this winter. The addition of his bat to the Rangers’ lineup would transform the second-best offense from 2011 (ranked by team wOBA) into a bona fide juggernaut next season.
First of all, Fielder would be leaving a relatively neutral park in Milwaukee to play in the most home run friendly baseball stadium in Major League Baseball in Arlington. Miller Park had the 11th-highest home run factor in the league last season at 1.062, while Rangers Ballpark in Arlington had a home run factor of 1.500. Fielder has five-consecutive seasons of 30+ home runs and a career .257 ISO. Theoretically, he would perform even better with the Rangers in their bandbox of a stadium.
Secondly, Fielder would replace the only below-average everyday player in the Rangers lineup, at least according to the 2011 numbers. Last year marked Mitch Moreland’s first full season in the big leagues. He started strong, hitting .300/.376/.513 through the month of May, but imploded throughout the remainder of the season and ended the season with only +0.4 WAR and a .317 wOBA, which is well below the American League average for first basemen in 2011 (.340).
With Moreland out of the lineup and Fielder replacing him at first base, the Texas Rangers would boast a scary-good batting order that features nine players that compiled wOBA numbers in 2011 that were above the American League average for their respective positions. The chart below illustrates that fact.
(click to enlarge)
Imagine having an eight-hitter (in this hypothetical batting order) who hit 29 home runs in 2011 and is one season removed from a +5 win season that saw him hit .318/.374/.576. Furthermore, imagine having a lineup that hit a combined 203 home runs last season. Outside of the Rangers themselves, only the New York Yankees hit more home runs as an entire team than those nine players who could potentially don Rangers uniforms next year.
Removing the rose-colored glasses for a moment, Prince Fielder does make more logistical sense in Texas than in Washington in some ways. He could move to DH with the Rangers after Michael Young becomes a free agent in 2014, rather than being forced into a roster situation in which he would continue to play terrible defense at first throughout his contract with the Nationals. Naturally, he becomes much less of a long-term risk if he has the DH position as a fall-back, though his offensive production would have to avoid serious regression going forward to still provide significant value as a DH.
Within the Rangers’ context, though, Fielder may not fit in the overall plans. The organization’s primary investment this offseason needs to be Yu Darvish to upgrade a starting rotation littered with question marks. Josh Hamilton is also seeking a long-term extension, and the payroll may not be flexible enough to accommodate significant contracts to both Hamilton and Fielder.
Thus, despite the fact that the Rangers continue to show interest in Fielder, the organization may not be able to perform the necessary financial gymnastics to get the job done.
But, man, Prince Fielder in a Rangers uniform next season would be a ton of fun to watch.
J.P. Breen is a graduate student at the University of Chicago. For analysis on the Brewers and fantasy baseball, you can follow him on Twitter (@JP_Breen).
Thats Craig Gentry, yo.
“ton of fun”
Pun intended/not intended?
I dare you to call Prince Fieder “tons of fun” to his face, Jim Breen. I just dare you.
I’m reading so many articles on Prince Fielder, but none that question how much he will produce in the near future. This article calls him a “+5 or +6 win player,” but if he actually does produce +5 or more wins in 2012, it will be the first time in his career he’s done it two seasons in a row. How do teams estimate the year-to-year risk during Fielder’s prime?
True, though his last “off” season was 3.4 war two years ago, which makes his last 3-year average over 5 WAR. I’d take .282/.390/.540 any day, though I do think you have a point in that he has given his teams far worse years multiple times which, given how the rest of his team performs in a given year could prove quite costly…
What is the positional adjustment difference of 1B and DH and/or where can I find that?
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/positional-adjustment/
You can see for Jesus Montero for example, the difference between Jesus Montero the catcher and Jesus Montero the DH, is 30 runs.
Thanks!
Such debauchery
Dear God no. As an Angels fn I can’t bear the thought of this.
And as someone living in DC, I’m not exactly thrilled about the Nats getting him either due to the long term risk and lack of a DH.
Please Prince, go back to the Bewers and leave my teams alone!
Do you land, beach, or net Fielder? Inquiring minds are just a little curious.
StatCorner has Milwaukee as a good home run park for lefties. According to the site, Milwaukee suppresses singles and increases strikeouts. Texas looks like a similar profile, without the increase in strikeouts and walks that Milwaukee seems to produce.
The two teams most often connected to free agent slugger Prince Fielder are the Washington Nationals and the Texas Rangers.
Um, only since about Friday. Most of the offseason it’s been the Mariners, then Mariners and Nationals, with a brief appearance by the Cubs. The Pineda/Montero trade does likely take the M’s out of it though.
LAA gets Pujols. TEX gets Fielder.
Just seems like a natural move-countermove.
In regards to all of the “weight” concerns. I’m not sure baseball has ever seen the likes of CC Sabathia and Prince Fielder in t4erms of the combination of size (weight) and skills/abilities.
There have been big clubbers before, and there have been overweight pitchers. But there haven’t been too many really big dudes put up great start of careers like they have. In other words, they may not “age” like we think a really big guy might.
Willie Stargell was really productive up to age 35. Small sample for certain. But when we’re looking at guys of this size, there ain’t that many. I’m also not sure how much to regress their future projections to the mean, and how much is “them”.
He’s fat but he can mash. Someone should sign this bastard.
This is the dumbest article this year. Buying Prince will not only be disruptive to the club, it will limit the resignings of the 2013_14 players. During the summer months Prince will look like a pig coming off a spit. Check his hot weather/high humidity numbers and remember the roofs.