Eckstein’s Unlikely Bomb
With the game tied at two in the bottom of the tenth, Giants manager Bruce Bochy’s greatest concern was likely Adrian Gonzalez, the man in the on-deck circle at the beginning of the inning. He probably hadn’t even considered the possibility that the game would be over before he even reached the plate.
David Eckstein cared not for improbability on Monday night, as he homered down the left field line off Jeremy Affeldt to win the game for the Padres. It was Eckstein’s first home run of the year and only his 10th since 2006, when he was a member of the World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals.
Eckstein never really had power, but his ability to hit home runs has disappeared since 2005, a season in which he hit 8 home runs and put up a career high .102 ISO. Since then, he’s averaged a home run every 199 plate appearances. A move to PETCO park, where last night’s home run occurred, certainly hasn’t helped the power-starved Eckstein, who saw his HR/FB% fall to a career low 1.3% last season as a Padre.
Not only that, but Jeremy Affeldt is an extreme ground ball pitcher, with a career 48.9% GB rate and a ridiculous 65.0% GB rate to 18.5% FB rate last season, and his GB rate has been above 50% since 2007. Over the last three years, Affeldt has allowed a 26.2% FB rate, and Eckstein has a 29.7% FB rate. Given the league average FB rate of 36.7%, using the crude estimation Expected = (Offense + Defense – Average) – used in The Book – we would expect Affeldt vs. Eckstein matchups to end in a fly ball only 19.2% of the time. Then, given Eckstein’s 1.9% HR/FB over that time frame, we would expect this matchup to end in a home run only .003648% of the time, or roughly 36 out of every 10000 times. With PETCO Park’s .86 HR park factor, that falls to 31 out of every 10000 times.
Of course, you already knew that Eckstein’s home run was unlikely. Still, I think events like these are fascinating. Personally, I think one of the most remarkable things about major league hitters is that even those that we consider not to have any power, such as Eckstein, are capable, on any given pitch, of hitting the ball out of the ballpark. Eckstein just happened to hit his in a clutch situation against remarkable odds.
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Eckstein HRed in this spot because he is a clutch hitter who knows how to win. There’s not another ML shortstop who I’d rather have on my team.
Yeah, Eckstein’s grit, leadership, and clutchness outweighs the fact that Hanley Ramirez’s WAR last year was higher than Eckstein’s 4 previous years by 3.4. ZOMGZ EXTINE IZ DA GOAT!?!?!1!!11ONE!11
Steroids. Without them Eckstein would be bagging groceries at the local megamart.
He’s so f***in scrappy!!!
I have a problem with your statement. You seem to imply that Eckstein is a shortstop. He has been a second baseman since he came to the Padres.
Eckstein is a 2B now, in fact, he hasn’t played SS since ’08 and even then he split time at 2B
If this statement was made by anyone here other than wrighteous, I’d applaud it as a hilarious and spot-on parody. Coming from him, though, I have to join TomG and blame it on drugs — but not on Eckstein’s part.
Should read 0.36%.
Again, I really enjoyed the game summary. It also made think that Eckstein probably has higher value for the Padres than he would for just about any other team — at Petco the importance of power is decreased, and thus all other skills increase in importance.
I was all ready to jump in with an Cluthy McGritteron comment about Eckstein, but someone beat me to it.
Of course, mine was going to be sarcastic.
I think you double counted the park factor. The park is part of the reason his HR/FB% was so low.
Anyway, doesn’t really matter, the difference between 36 and 31 in 10000 isn’t worth worrying about.
JP,
I think – I hope – that one was too.
Steven,
I disagree furiously! That’s an error of nearly 14%. =)
I demand that my pointless statistics be perfectly accurate, never mind that error is hilariously far below the expected errors resulting from uncertainty in true talent and park factors. 🙂
How long has been in Petco anyway? The whole time?
Related, PETCO has seen more runs scored there this year than you’d expect (though much of it may be the 17 runs given up by the Braves earlier this month).
I hate David Eckstein so very much.
Why, did his wife take your piece of the Aggro Crag?
No, Eckstein’s wife is too busy coordinating the offseason business she and he have, getting dressed up and standing on wedding cakes.
David Eckstein was not some mere “member of the 2006 World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals.” He was the World Series MVP! And now he should be declared the Padres’ All-Time Franchise MVP. This guy knows baseball far better than blogger Jack Moore ever could, since, unlike Mr. Moore, David Eckstein does not live in his mom’s basement looking at spreadsheets while baseball plays on the muted and ignored TV behind him. In fact, David Eckstein lives at Petco, sleeping every night in Kyle Blanks’ locker, because he is just. That. Gritty. Living at Petco is, like, the OPPOSITE of living in your mom’s basement. (Fun fact: mom’s basements have a universal park factor of 573 silmarillion.)
God I miss Fire Joe Morgan.
But they taught us well. As long as we can carry on with posts like that, Fire Joe Morgan lives on in each of us.
Well said, Joser. FJM forever.
This is the thing about baseball which is fun and frustrating at the same time. No matter all the advanced stats we have and even looking at guys career numbers, you never know what can happen on a given day. Sometimes the most unlikely of hitter will come up big in the most important situation and defy all logic. It’s funny.
Unlikely events still sometimes happen. That’s what makes it fun. What makes it even more fun is that we can calculate how unlikely such an event actually is. That enhances the appreciation of it, at least for me.
Eckstein: the human one-dimensional particle in a box
At least he has a nice German cat in there with him.
That may or may not be dead and stinking up the place… For David’s sake lets say it’s alive
Maybe it’s not the cat. Maybe David needs to wash off a little excess “grit.”
I was surprised as anyone Eckstein hit that ball out. That said, he got a fastball middle in, which was almost a carbon copy of the ballhe got Friday night in the ninth – and he lined that pitch over the LF’s head for a double, which tied the game.
The lesson, as always, is don’t throw into Eckstein’s kitchen – he’ll make you pay.
Watched the game and, though a giants fan, wasn’t even disappointed. When David Eckstein beats you with a walk off home run you’ve been beat by divine intervention.
I am a Giants fan and also watched the game last night. I disagree; I was INSANELY disappointed that of all the people to beat us last night it was David F9#(%( Eckstein. Are you kidding me? How come we didn’t sign him, Sabes? Veteran grit on display for all to see
It meant that the Giants took on God’s will last night. And damn, if you can make God go into extra innings you’ve played a good game.
Especially considering he caught that Molina liner which would have given us the lead and probably the game. I hate you, David Eckstein.
“I hate you, David Eckstein.”
Amen.
The horrible thing about this is you just know that Sabean is thinking “This guy is so clutch – when Freddie Sanchez’ contract is up I just have to get this guy to play 2nd for us”.
I’m guessing the G’s try to sign him for $10.5 million for his year 37 and 38 seasons. I wish this was just a joke, if it isn’t I’m going to lie down in the fetal position and weep for awhile..
The Eckstein “clutch”, “grit”, and “winner” jokes are very, very tired and quite lame.
Yep…straight out of the Sabermetrics for Dummies, Chapter 6: Saber-Snark for Beating a Deadhorse
At this point, Eckstein jokes are more a tribute to Firejoemorgan than anything else.
It takes grit for you to say so. It was clutch, as I was about to add another one. I won’t, so you’re the winner.
David Eckstein is the winner, but more for what he does off the field.
As World Series MVP in October of 2006, Eckstein was awarded a new Corvette. It would have been his first new car. But he didn’t keep it. He gave it to his brother.
Source:
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/120830/baseballs_david_eckstein_st_louis_cardinals_pg2.html?cat=38
At that point in his career Eckstein’s had earned $8.7 million. Conservatively estimating that half of that is gone in taxes and agent fees, he would still have $4.35 million. Despite having sufficient means for even a modest new car, Eckstein chose otherwise.
Salary source:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eckstda01.shtml
The flipside of Eckstein’s financial prudence?
78% of former NFL players are bankrupt or under financial stress after two years of retirement
60% of NBA players are broke withn five years of retirement
“How and Why Athletes Go Broke” http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1153364/1/index.htm
Wow, much Eckstein hating in this string. I applaud people like Eckstein, Bush, Cyrus, etc. who do so much with so little. Succeeding with talent is easy. Succeeding without it takes a special person.
You can’t throw it in Eckstein’s kitchen, he only has a kitchenette….GO GATORS!