Eduardo Rodriguez, Dylan Cease, and the Trades That Didn’t Happen

Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer were the stars of the trade deadline, along with prospects Drew Gilbert, Kyle Manzardo, and Luisangel Acuña. The Mets, White Sox, and Cardinals were the biggest sellers, and the Rangers were the most active buyers of the season. These were the names and teams that dominated the headlines on the busiest days of the baseball calendar. But as always, some teams stood pat and some stars stayed put, and a few of the trades that did not happen were just as interesting as many that did.

The most surprising non-trade of the deadline was that of Eduardo Rodriguez, who will remain with the Tigers through the end of the season. Detroit had every reason to shop the veteran, who’s in the midst of a career year with a 2.95 ERA and 3.17 FIP in 15 starts. His performance caught the eye of several suitors, including the Dodgers, Rays, Padres, Rangers, Reds, Diamondbacks, and Phillies. The Tigers, meanwhile, are already out of contention, and Rodriguez is certain to exercise his opt-out at the end of the year. And having already received the qualifying offer once, he cannot receive it again; if/when he leaves in free agency, the Tigers will receive no compensation at all. On top of all that, it was clearly a seller’s market for starting pitching, so although the Tigers had little leverage, they could have still secured a sizeable return for their best trade chip.

With the clock ticking on Tuesday, word came out that the Tigers and Dodgers had reached an agreement to trade Rodriguez. But he exercised his partial no-trade clause and vetoed the deal; as per his contract, he has the right to refuse a trade to 10 different teams, and the Dodgers are one of them. Rodriguez reportedly rejected the trade to L.A. to stay closer to family; his wife and children live in Miami. (Editor’s Note: this piece has been updated to reflect reporting on Rodriguez’s reasoning in rejecting a trade.) However, his reasoning for turning down the deal is hardly relevant, nor does it say anything about his value on the field. His no-trade protection is a part of his contract, just like his salary, bonuses, and option years. He has every right to use his no-trade clause however he sees fit, just as he has every right to collect his paycheck and exercise his opt-out.

Still, it’s hard not to view this turn of events as a failure on the part of Scott Harris and the Tigers front office. There are 19 teams that Rodriguez could not have refused a trade to, and there’s a good chance at least one of them would have liked to add a frontline starting pitcher. Yet the Tigers wasted their time crafting a deal that would never come to be; by the time it fell through, it was too late to change their plans.

Harris justified the outcome, explaining, “There were some contractual headwinds that influenced [Rodriguez’s] market. There were a couple of terms in his contract that disqualified a lot of markets from pursuing him. So we were working with the market that we had.” Those vague excuses may well be true, but they still come across as a poor defense. The Tigers blew their best opportunity and came away from the deadline with only a single prospect of note: Hao-Yu Lee, received in exchange for Michael Lorenzen. Impending free agents José Cisnero and Chasen Shreve remain with the Tigers, as do bigger trade chips like Alex Lange, Jason Foley, and Kerry Carpenter, all of whom popped up in rumors ahead of the deadline.

As Harris also mentioned, there are worse fates than having “one of the best left-handed starters in baseball on the mound every five nights.” Be that as it may, one of the very few benefits of being a crappy baseball team is the chance to sell at the deadline. The Tigers couldn’t even manage that.

The White Sox dangled an ace of their own on the trade market, but unlike the Tigers, they faced little pressure to finalize a deal. Dylan Cease is arbitration eligible through 2025; if Rick Hahn wants to trade him, he still has plenty of time to do so. Furthermore, Chicago had several other players to sell, including Lucas Giolito, Jake Burger, Lance Lynn, and a cornucopia of relievers. Still, considering the prospects the Mets got back for Scherzer and Verlander, the White Sox could have fetched a pretty penny for the 2022 Cy Young runner-up. They seemed to pick up on this, because after days of rejecting inquiries about Cease, they suddenly started listening to “more serious offers” hours before the deadline. Ultimately, however, it all came to nothing, and Cease will make his scheduled start this evening against the Rangers at Globe Life Field.

All things considered, Cease never seemed that likely to be traded. The White Sox had higher priorities this summer and no reason to sell low on Cease after his slow start in 2023. Neither his 4.15 ERA nor his 3.57 FIP reflect the ace-level pitcher he can be. Over his last ten starts, he has a 3.34 ERA and a 2.66 FIP; if he pitches more like that down the stretch, his trade value will be even higher in the offseason. What’s more, it’s possible Chicago could be looking to sign him to a long-term extension. Still just 27 years old, there’s little risk that he’ll start to decline before the White Sox next field a competitive team. They play in the AL Central, after all, and with a good offseason, they could be contenders again as soon as next season.

With Rodriguez and Cease staying put, the only frontline arms to change hands at the deadline were Scherzer and Verlander, leaving several contending teams with holes in their rotations high and dry. The Orioles turned to Jack Flaherty, a fine pitcher but hardly the ace they were searching for. The Dodgers struck a last-minute deal for Ryan Yarbrough; the former Royal will provide them with left-handed depth but not much more. Meanwhile, the Rangers, who secured the services of Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery, come out looking even better than they did when the trades were first announced.

When it comes to bats, some significant names stayed put: Teoscar Hernández, Adam Duvall, Lane Thomas, Dylan Carlson, and Tyler O’Neill. Salvador Perez and Harrison Bader were briefly made available on deadline day, but the chances of either being moved were small. Similarly, Jonathan India’s name came up in rumors in the days before the deadline, but he was only ever moving in a truly unexpected blockbuster.

Neither Hernández nor Duvall made much sense as trade candidates either; they play for contending teams, and they’re both struggling to hit as of late. Given the dearth of right-handed bats on the market, they each came up in their fair share of rumors, but ultimately, the Mariners and Red Sox didn’t receive any offers they liked enough to pull the trigger, and it’s not hard to see why. The potential benefit of a hot-hitting Hernández or Duvall down the stretch far outweighs whatever return they could get for two months of a slumping veteran.

Thomas and his 114 wRC+ could have garnered a stronger return, but Washington never seemed too keen to trade him. He is arbitration eligible through 2025, and if the Nationals think he can prove himself as an everyday corner outfielder, and not just the short side of a platoon, they’d be wise to hold onto him a little longer. The Nats had a quiet deadline this year, trading Jeimer Candelario, the piece they needed to sell, but holding onto other trade chips like Thomas and Kyle Finnegan.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, were anything but quiet. Carlson and O’Neill were never obvious trade chips, but once rumors of the impending fire sale began, their names popped up as young, controllable alternatives to the likes of Hernández, Duvall, Randal Grichuk, and Tommy Pham. St. Louis would have been selling low on both, though, and with each under contract past this season, there was little pressure to make a move. Indeed, the only players the Cardinals dealt were impending free agents: Montgomery, Flaherty, Jordan Hicks, Chris Stratton, and Paul DeJong. Carlson and O’Neill survived the deadline, as did reliever Giovanny Gallegos, who is under contract through 2024. Unsurprisingly, superstars Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are also staying in St. Louis. In other words, the Cardinals don’t plan to be down in the basement for long. The prospects they got back point to a similar conclusion.

Like the Cardinals, the Mets were supposed contenders who ended up selling big, but it doesn’t look like they will be back in contention in 2024, and they certainly weren’t just trading rentals. That being so, it’s a little surprising they didn’t find a new home for reliever Brooks Raley. The left-hander has a reasonable $6.5 million club option for 2024, and given his 2.37 ERA in 46 games, he seemed like a safe bet to be dealt. Then again, buyers might have been scared by his unsustainable 88.1% strand percentage, declining velocity, and high fly ball rate. He has still done an excellent job limiting hard contact, but his xFIP and SIERA are more than a full run higher than last season. That’s not to say he wouldn’t improve several contending teams’ bullpens, but he may not have been in as high demand as his surface stats would have you believe.

With impact trade candidates at such a premium, the deadline could have gone one of two ways. We could have seen a buying frenzy, where contending teams handed over piles of prospects for any upgrade they could get their hands on. Instead, however, we got one of the more placid deadlines in recent memory. Rodriguez is still on the Tigers. Cease is still on the White Sox. And it’s time for the stretch run to begin.