2023 Trade Deadline Winners and Losers
The trade deadline was yesterday, which means it’s time for a winners and losers post. I don’t really have a clever introduction for you here; you know what these things are, and you know how they go. I consulted a bit with the FanGraphs staff in compiling these, but these are mostly just my opinions. Want a high-level summary of what you should care about following the deadline? Here it goes.
Winner: Teams Trading Pitchers
The market for pitching of all types was scalding hot this week. Most of the best prospects who moved were shipped out in exchange for pitching, including plenty of rentals. Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López have been just okay this year, and they merited a 50 FV prospect plus more. Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton fetched a similar return. Noted old men Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer got the Mets both quality and quantity in return. Even rental relievers like Jordan Hicks and David Robertson brought back exciting prospects.
Of course, not every rumored move materialized. If teams were willing to offer this much in return for rental pitchers, it’s perhaps unsurprising that some of the big names rumored to be on the market stayed put. Three months of Montgomery is one thing, but what about two years of Dylan Cease or four years of Logan Gilbert? Given how much teams are willing to dole out for a few years of an aging, paid-down ace, you can imagine the sky-high price tag for young, controllable starters.
I think the activity we saw makes a lot of sense. It’s hard to know how many healthy and effective pitchers you’ll have in July, even if you start the season with a full complement of them. It’s also a position that everyone needs; realistically, every playoff contender could use another excellent reliever and another innings-eating starter. Heck, Lance Lynn has the worst ERA in baseball and the Dodgers still traded for him.
I used to think that if you weren’t sure whether your team was playoff bound, it was more effective to wait until July to build a bullpen. Bring in four or five relievers if you’re in the race; trade some guys if you aren’t. But at current valuations, I think that equation has changed. You can add pitching in July, no doubt, but these days, it’ll cost you.
Winner: Teams Acquiring Hitters
As hot as the market was for pitchers of all varieties, even good hitters didn’t fetch much this deadline. Jeimer Candelario has already racked up 3.1 WAR this season, and yet he got dealt for less than either Robertson or Hicks, two rental relievers who have combined for 1.5 WAR and 86.2 innings pitched this year. Mark Canha was dealt for a long-shot starter prospect. Tommy Pham only brought back a DSL lottery ticket.
I don’t think this crop of rental hitters is particularly weak, but there are no standout options. Perhaps that kept bids down. But Candelario, Pham, and Canha are the kinds of solid major leaguers that most teams can use in some capacity or another, in the same way that a fifth starter can chip in even without being particularly good.
Perhaps it’s just a fluke of the way the standings broke; among playoff contenders, only the Marlins, Brewers, Guardians, and Twins have truly dire offenses. The Twins and Guardians both seem to have been moved by the spirit of their division and decided lousy might work just fine, while the Brewers and Marlins both added. That’s a fairly small crop of needy teams overall, though I think at least four other contending clubs could have improved their fortunes markedly by adding Candelario.
The market has been heading this way in recent years; hitters are getting less and less at the deadline unless they’re true stars. Smart teams are surely taking note. If my team has to go into a given season with a weakness, I’d much prefer it to be at a corner offensive spot rather than in the rotation or bullpen. It’s easier to get competent upgrades at those positions at midseason than to restock a bad bullpen or bulk up a wimpy rotation.
Winner: The Mets Farm System
I’ve long thought that Steve Cohen’s financial might would eventually start helping the Mets’ farm system. It turns out, a surprisingly awful season was all the team needed to get going on that front. The equation is simple. Take a star on a market rate contract, then absorb enough of the money that they’re on a below-rate contract. Presto, changeo! You now have a valuable trade chip.
Four of the team’s top 10 prospects weren’t Mets a week ago. They’ve added across the entire scope of the minors; they acquired three players in the Dominican Summer League and several who are already performing well in Double-A. We have them as the 11th-best farm system now, just behind some vaunted organizations (Orioles, Rays, Diamondbacks), and that’s after Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, and Kodai Senga all graduated from our preseason list. They did most of that by trading pitchers who are 38, 39, and 40. That’s some kind of pivot.
Look, spending a bunch of money is a good way to get good baseball players. That’s hardly a shocking statement. Traditionally, wallet-flexing is mostly about supplementing your roster with star veterans. There’s nothing wrong with that, and I’m betting that the Mets will keep doing that where appropriate. But real long-term success requires a vibrant farm system that can churn out flexible role players and the occasional star. The Dodgers wouldn’t be such a juggernaut if they weren’t hitting on Will Smith, Bobby Miller, Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, and so on. They wouldn’t have had the prospects to trade for Mookie Betts if they didn’t focus on developing them first.
One move I particularly liked: starting an AL West arms race and then profiting off of it. Sending Scherzer to Texas clearly lit a fire under the Astros. The Rangers already looked like a serious threat for the division title, but Scherzer and Montgomery might have made them the favorites. The Mets turned around and dealt Verlander back to Houston on the back of that, and they got the Astros’ best two prospects for him. That’s clean living.
Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers didn’t come into the deadline planning to expend much prospect capital. Their team is hardly a juggernaut, and they could use a minor league talent infusion soon to offset the upcoming losses of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. But thanks to the vagaries of the market, they were able to add two meaningful pieces in Canha and Andrew Chafin without doing much to affect their future plans.
That’s not a bad start, but it gets better than that. Luis Urías had turned into a sunk cost; he’s making $4.7 million in arbitration this year, but played poorly enough to get demoted to Triple-A. The budget-conscious Brewers were likely going to DFA him, but they traded him to the Red Sox instead and got Bradley Blalock, a 40+ FV starter who’s been on fire this year. Recouping value when players don’t pan out like you’d hoped is a key part of the Milwaukee strategy, and this is a good example.
And there’s more! The Reds are leading the NL Central, but they essentially sat out the deadline. Their core is made up mostly of rookies, and I’m sure they’re telling themselves that now is too soon to strike, but come on, man. The NL Central probably won’t be this winnable for years to come. The Cubs are on the rise. The Cardinals won’t stay down long. The Pirates… Well, fine, you can’t win them all. But the Reds sat on their hands, which meant the Brewers’ additions went unopposed.
Winner: Miami’s Strategy
Speaking of teams that understand their window, the Marlins were busy this week. They added a closer, a first baseman, a third baseman, and whatever role you want to assign to Ryan Weathers. They badly needed those corner infielders, and their bullpen could use some work too. The plan of “fix all our weaknesses and try to go make the playoffs” makes even more sense when you consider that they’ve only been there once since their 2003 World Series championship, and even that postseason trip was in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. When you’re the Marlins, you need to take your shots where you can.
Loser: Miami’s Tactics
But, uh, maybe not like this. The Marlins gave up some promising youngsters in the trade for Robertson. Marco Vargas in particular is a buzzy name in scouting circles, the kind of hitter who everyone thinks is the best kept secret to the point where the secret isn’t particularly well kept. The public-side prospect watchers I listen to the most all think the Mets got the better of that deal.
And don’t even get me started on the first base situation. No one would disagree that the Marlins need help there; their first basemen have produced an anemic 96 wRC+ on the year, not exactly what you’d hope for from an offense-first position. Just one problem: Josh Bell, who they acquired from the Guardians, has a 95 wRC+.
That’s harsher to Bell than he deserves, which mirrors his batted ball luck this year. He’s making his customary loud contact and putting up good strikeout and walk numbers, but the power just hasn’t appeared. He also has a pretty horrendous .272 BABIP, especially vexing when you consider how many grounders and line drives he hits. Garrett Cooper, who Bell is replacing, had similar numbers but worse raw measurables; I think Bell is a small upgrade.
To make that small upgrade, the Marlins took on roughly $9 million in salary across the next two years. They also sent out post-hype sleeper Kahlil Watson. Neither of those is a huge loss, but the net of the whole thing is baffling to me. Money and a prospect for a hitter who you’re hoping ends up 15% above average? Just trade for Canha or Pham for way less, or something like that.
In a deadline where bats were there for the taking, the Marlins overpaid. I don’t think their Jake Burger/Jake Eder swap was quite so bad, because they’re getting future years of control from Burger and Eder is a phenomenally risky prospect, but it’s a sign of the same thing that bothered me about the other trades. Sure, Burger will be around for longer than a rental, but you could plug a series of veterans into that role, and there’s no guarantee that Burger will be playable for his entire Miami tenure. The Marlins got half of the equation right – it’s time to go out and get some hitters and relievers – but then they went about it in a bizarre way.
Loser: The Theory of Perpetually Increasing Prospect Hugging
Teams have been getting increasingly attached to their own prospects. Last year, only seven prospects we gave a grade of 50 FV or higher got traded, and three of them were part of the Juan Soto deal. With no one that good on the market this year (RIP, dreams of a Shohei Ohtani rental), I thought there was a chance that roughly zero top 100 prospects would get traded.
That didn’t happen. Six FV 50s got traded this deadline, headlined by Kyle Manzardo and Drew Gilbert. Plenty of interesting prospects just outside the fringes of the top 100 moved as well. That’s a big haul considering how quiet the deadline was; the Mets, White Sox, and Cardinals were the only sellers of note this year. If you weren’t interested in what those teams were offering, there wasn’t much to do.
I’m not ready to say that the tide has changed. Teams are still clinging to prospects in general; the Orioles and Reds, two of this year’s biggest surprises, went small at the deadline despite flourishing farm systems and not enough spaces to play their coterie of exciting young hitters. Both teams might regret that move down the road; give or take service time shenanigans, they’re taking a major disadvantage in one sixth of the team control years for their core.
You’re telling me that Heston Kjerstad is more useful in Baltimore as one of a bevy of might-work-out outfielders than as a trade chip to help this year’s team? I’m skeptical. The same goes for third basemen Noelvi Marte and Cam Collier in Cincinnati – you might have heard, but the team isn’t exactly short on infield prospects.
Prospect hugging isn’t defeated, and it probably never will be. But this year’s mix of deals feels a little closer to rational than the past few years, at least in my mind. I still think it’s a good time to be adding at the deadline, but not to quite the extreme that I feared the market would find equilibrium.
Loser: The Orioles
Let’s break that previous thought out a little bit more. The Orioles are a lock to make the playoffs this year, and yet their rotation is one of the worst in baseball. This deadline had a ton of impact rental arms, and while they would have cost a decent amount in terms of prospects, the Orioles were perfectly positioned to do just that. Kjerstad, Colton Cowser (currently on the big league club but scuffling), Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg; they have a surfeit of coveted hitting prospects, easily enough to swing a deal for at least a few impact starters. Somehow, they instead ended up with only Jack Flaherty, who looks like more of what their rotation already had.
That hurts! Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson are going to be around for a long time, but it’s not literally forever. The AL East is consistently one of the toughest divisions in baseball. There’s no guarantee that the Yankees and Red Sox will stay down, and no guarantee that the Orioles will lead the division this late in the season in the immediate future. Their Pythagorean and BaseRuns records suggest that they’ve been playing better than their underlying talent, but that shouldn’t be a reason not to add. This is surely the best shot the O’s will have at a playoff bye in the next few years based on divisional competition alone. It’s criminal to let the deadline pass by without leaning into that chance.
My guess is that Baltimore’s front office is held back by the very thinking that has propelled them to this spot in the first place. They sold at the deadline last year despite being fringe contenders, and it paid off. They try to red paperclip every trade, always building towards a perpetually glorious future. They hoard prospects and work reclamation projects. The system works! Houston used that model to become a juggernaut, and the Orioles might follow in their footsteps one day. But that plan has its limits; it’s designed to build up your farm system while the big league club stinks, not to deal with the exigencies of a playoff contender.
The Orioles are run by a sharp group of people; you’ll get no objection from me on that score. They’re surely aware of the perils of constantly looking to the future; it’s not a deep secret. But subconsciously, I think they might be struggling to change mental models. Constantly dreaming about what players might become in three years leads to systematic mis-evaluations of how important the present is at any given time. Concentrating value into windows of contention by adding at some deadlines and restocking at others is the way that teams with good process convert their farm systems into titles. The Orioles will figure it out, but I don’t think they’ve gotten the math right just yet.
Winner: Midwestern Retools
I’ve already covered the Mets; the two other major sellers this year were the White Sox and Cardinals, both of whom had a truckload of pitchers with expiring contracts, the new coin of the realm. Giolito, Lynn, López, Joe Kelly, Kendall Graveman, Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Hicks, Stratton… the names just kept on coming.
Out of that laundry list of players, only Graveman has a guaranteed contract next year. These teams expected to contend for the playoffs, and they were going to have to work hard in the offseason. They’ll still need to replace that production if they’re planning on reaching the postseason in 2024, but that was always the case; now, at least, they have a bunch of prospects that they wouldn’t have access to otherwise.
Each team acted according to its expected timeline. I don’t think the White Sox will be great next year, and they seemed to agree; the best prospect they got back in their deals is a 20-year-old catcher. The Cardinals targeted near-majors-ready pitching, which makes sense given their huge need there. It’s win-win to me; a ton of good players who are headed for free agency get to battle for playoff spots down the stretch, and two farm systems in need of rejuvenation got just that.
Loser: Excitement
We can go back and forth about who won and who lost all day, but the bottom line is that the only trades that felt like capital-n News were Verlander and Scherzer decamping to Texas. Big names, big salaries, splashy prospects coming back; those are the kinds of deadline deals that top SportsCenter and get my non-baseball friends buzzing.
No one really went all-in this year, unless you want to count the Rangers. No one did a full teardown. The only sellers who had much to move did so with the intention of competing again soon. The Cardinals and Padres held onto some high impact stars who might have shaken up the deadline, and the White Sox stopped short of trading Dylan Cease. It’s hard to blame any one team for their decision. Taken individually, I can mostly understand the tactics everyone chose, even if I quibble with what the Orioles and Reds did (or didn’t do). But the end result of all those rational decisions was a bit of a snooze.
I’m not sure there’s much of a solution to this. From an entertainment standpoint, it’s dull. From a process standpoint, baseball is big business these days, and risk aversion is on the rise. Taking a risky move or blowing things up on a whim doesn’t sound quite so enticing when you’re making multiple million dollars a year as a GM. It probably doesn’t sound as enticing for an owner, either. The deadline doesn’t have to be exciting, and there are some awesome playoff races to follow down the stretch, but I was hoping all day for some shocking blockbuster, and it never materialized.
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.
I appreciate the Mets for once in my life deciding that sunk costs are real and success is driven by strength in the farm complemented by a willingness to spend when the time is right. Too much of my time as a fan of the team has been defined by terrible process and short-sighted decision making. It sucks that the Mets aren’t good coming off of a 101 win team but it’s refreshing to see the Mets making some consistently good choices overall.
Hopefully 2025 is a year to remember. Ya Gotta Believe!
lol. lmao
Great point!
Hell – the Dodgers wouldn’t have had the prospects to trade for Mookie Betts if they weren’t willing to eat David Price’s entire contract!
The Mets are doing *exactly* what a smart, big market team with money to burn should do.
You mean sign very old FA to giant short term contracts and then eat much of those contracts for Grade 50 prospects? It sort of gives you a chance to contend while also not tying up long term money, making a trade easier.
dont treat the mookie betts trade and return as anything other than a generational fuckup
It wasn’t a fuckup – Chaim Bloom used Betts to salary-dump Price after offering him an insulting lowball…then tried to trash his name out the door, only for him to say immediately sign with the Dodgers when offered a fair contract.
And hey…at least Verdugo was a better return than they got when they did the exact same thing to Bogaerts!
Was it Chaim Bloom that forced the Price contract into the deal? Seems more likely that it was John Henry that saw an escape hatch from Price’s contract.
Are we also blaming Henry for every lowball offer Bloom has made to existing players and every overpay he’s made to guys like Story?
No but it is clear who drove the bus on the Betts/Price deal.
And who drove the bus on lowballing Betts, creating the environment for the trade?
I’d guessing it’s the same guy who offered X 4/$90M immediately after paying a significantly worse player at the same position 6/$140M.
in fairness, it looks like they lucked out by letting Boegarts walk
I don’t think there was much luck involved. There have been many questionable long term deals for aging players. There weren’t many in Red Sox Nation who saw any value in the ridiculous deal Bogaerts, who was very popular, got. He is already sliding and it was beginning to show in 2022.
I mean…this isn’t a vacuum.
Bogaerts got a crazy deal because he reached FA.
Bogaerts reached FA because Bloom told him to go fuck himself during extension negotiations, by offering him significantly less in both dollars and years than a worse player who had never displayed the ability to hit a breaking ball outside of Coors.
Yep. Bloom didn’t want Story but was overruled.
here’s an example of the irrationality of fandom, but I’d genuinely rather have “done what they did to bogaerts” and kept Mookie for 2020 and then seen him walk than make that trade.
It’s important to note that the trade was made pre-covid, so Chaim thought he was trading away 162 games of Betts instead of 60. One 6-10 war season of mookie betts is worth so much more to me than any amount of easily replaceable verdugo seasons
the guards made nearly the same exact trade, salary dumping carassco with lindor. lindor is much worse than betts. even they got a 6win season out of gimenez last year.
Oh, 100% on all counts.
Not to mention that the Guards and the Red Sox have very different financial situations!
The Red Sox return for Betts has taken a large leap forward with the emergence of Wong as a well above average defensive catcher with some offense and speed.
sure man whatever but we traded mookie betts
No! The Red Sox got something better than a compensation pick for a truly great player who was never going to resign with with them.
1) Betts was never going to sign with Boston…never felt comfortable in this city and made it clear he was going to “explore the market”.
2) Boegrats, with no shift, is a liability.
3) Bloom was wise to hold onto his prospects and let the hurt players return. This team is not built to win, even if yo added one of the mid-level SPs.
Clear bad salary, sign free agents when you have young, cheap studs in place….patience.
1) We’ll never know, because Bloom offered him an insulting lowball.
2) Xander Bogaerts has rated as a plus defender this year.
3) Don’t think anyone was accusing this Red Sox roster of deserving any deadline additions.
The Red Sox paid half of Price’s contract.
So they tanked the return on Betts to dump half of Price’s contract!
That makes it so much better.
I entirely apologize for questioning The Process.
Loser: Yankees. Just two moves, adding two middle relievers, which was incidentally the only position group that the Yanks DIDN’T need any help in.
Loser: Yankees fans. Trashman will prob get another extension this off-season, because why the hell not at this point?
The major problem for them is that they don’t have much to trade. Maybe Volpe, but he’s the future in their eyes. Harrison Bader maybe but that would weaken the current team. Same with Gleyber Torres. Relievers I guess. Aaron Judge plus a huge amount of money to the Giants?
Yankees fans are ticked off in the FG comments section today, which probably has more to do with the fact that they’re in 5th place than what the Yankees did or didn’t do at the deadline. But I’m sure the lack of action at the deadline didn’t help.
The fact that they’re in 5th place and a fair bit out of the 3rd Wild Card slot is exactly why Yankees fans are, and should be, pissed that they did nothing at the deadline.
Bader, IKF, and Peralta should both be on new teams, as should at least one of Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle.
They also should have eaten as much money as possible, to maximize the prospect return.
You think anyone’s going to give up anything for a bum like IKF? Lol
Nothing of much value, but he’s a warm body and a semi-functional bat who can play anywhere but pitcher.
And he’d be essentially free.
This Yankee fan is ticked off in the FG comments section today because of both what they did and didn’t do.
From Cashman’s post-deadline presser:
That’s a lot of “hope”. It’s never a great sign when you trade for someone and you immediately tell the press “hopefully he makes us a little better”.
Cashman has gotten burned bad at the Deadline recently, spending a lot of resources for nothing-or-less-than-nothing, and I find that last sentence very telling.
It’s clear the plan for this season was set in March and neither Cashman or Boone have shown any ability to react to conditions on the ground. The number of times Boone has been out there saying “we have to be better” is maddening.
Anthony Rizzo has been hitting like a third catcher for two months now — he still has not batted lower than fourth in the lineup. Donaldson only batted between 2 and 6. I’m well aware that lineup construction isn’t a huge deal in the long run, but it’s very symbolic of the inability to improvise.
That doesn’t even get into the whole Anthony Volpe situation. It’s admirable that the Yanks said, “he’s the starter” and gave him plenty of rope; but after a couple of months, when it was clear he needs to refine his approach, have a Plan B. If you’re going to have a strugging rookie at SS, maybe have the better defensive one there?
At what point does confidence become delusion?
I apologize for the borderline sports-radio rant here, but hot damn, I need to get that out of my system.
I’m glad you recognized that before someone pointed it out to you, that’s healthy self-awareness right there.
Also, watching Yankees fans self-immolate in sports-radio-level-rants over being a roughly .500 team is also one of the true joys in life. So I can’t say I didn’t like it.
At least I’ve brought someone a little joy today. That’s all one can ask for.
I’m about to go on vacation with some rabid Yankee fans who are family friends of ours. It is good to know what I am walking into.
Good points. Good post. We all know Peraza needs to be the SS and Volpe needs to move to 2nd. They have no choice but to trade Gleyber. And those lousy hitters (plus DJ and Stanton ) not only play everyday but they bat in key spots in the lineup. And next year the aging declining players will mostly be back and once again batting in key spots. Pay down 75% of those salaries and give them away. It still saves 25% and go with cheap players who will still be better. The Mets did a form of it.
Why on Earth should they “trade Gleyber” in deference to a guy who they clearly don’t trust over the corpses of Donaldson and LeMahieu, haha?
He, Judge, and Volpe are their only roster-worthy position players under contract for next year.
Volpe’s at 9 DRS and 2 OAA. There’s no reason to move him off SS. The issue is that he’s a noncompetitive hitter
This aged well.
“The issue” with Volpe is that he has a really (really, really) bad slump for six weeks, starting in May, after pitchers adjusted to him.
…and that the way in which he was an effective hitter before and has been since isn’t aesthetically pleasing to Yankees fans, even as it’s been almost identical to his ZiPS projection entering the season.
“The Volpe” situation is that a rookie had a 5 week slump.
He was fine at the plate in the 5 weeks before that slump.
He’s been fine in the 6 weeks (of games) since.
The Venn diagram of people who wanted to jerk Volpe around, people who cheered when Aaron Hicks was cut, and people who are shocked that Aaron Hicks is back to playing like himself is a circle.
You nailed it. This is the first year in fantasy that I have ever streamed pitchers when the opposed the Yankees.
The deadline just grew the hatred for Hal SteinBummer and Cashman. Not only did the Yankees do nothing but they now face 2024 with the same aging declining broken down players. And since Hal refuses to spend money anymore (he used to but no longer) the team will be mostly the same. Imagine Candelario went cheap and the Yankees desperately needed him but refused. They could have signed him and then re signed him for the future.
Eric has them having 8 prospects with FVs 45-50. This does not include the 60 for Volpe. They had stuff to trade if willing.
This is true. If they could have gotten Cease, Candelario and Rodriguez for some combination of those 8 it might have been worth it. But just for one of those would probably not have been enough to compete with the Rays or Blue Jays or Orioles let alone Astros. Even two of those would be iffy.
But it’s also the #25 ranked system in baseball. Given all the injuries and older players, I’m not sure further depleting the system for a small potential gain in the present would have been a good idea.
The problem with those rankings is that few of the hitters (save maybe Periera or possibly Sweeney) have even really justified their current ranking, let alone improved. The pitchers outside of Thorpe haven’t really assuaged the various doubts they have — the wild guys are still really wild, the mid-to-back of the rotation guys.
It’s a really thin, weak system right now. After the deadline, they’ve risen all the way to 25th, only ahead of teams that have graduated anyone useful already (ATL, KCR), made aggressive win-now moves (HOU, MIA) or have decided baseball is cancelled after the end of the season (LAA).
Yup Trade Wells for example. He can’t catch and we don’t want an “ok” hitter playing the outfield.
They shouldn’t have traded anything for this corpse of a team, though.
…I’m confused why you think “the current team” should be a consideration for the Yankees.
I’m not sure why I thought that. As someone who lived in New York 1987-94 I should know better
Here’s hoping Hal manages to take after his old man and be banned from the league in favor of someone who cares about winning, hahah
What the hell did you trade Jay Buhner for!? He hit 35 home runs, had over 100 RBIs and had a rocket for an arm!
How is keeping Bader and making the current team worse an issue? The current team is bad; they should absolutely have sold Bader
If your mind immediately goes to who they could sell, obviously it’s no big deal that doing so would hurt the current team.
There were plenty of trade chips. As you said: relievers. Holmes probably would have been the best reliever moved if they had done it. Wandy is shoving. The bullpen is stacked and they could have made any and all of them available at the right price. Torres and Bader would have been two of the best hitters moved. German is an average SP, the type of player we saw get moved for a good haul multiple times. Even Schmidt could have been moved for the right piece – for example a Cardinals OF. How is that not much?
I’d be reluctant to move Schmidt unless you’re convinced Warren will be able to provide reliable innings at the MLB level in ’24. Schmidt is unlikely to ever be an ace, but he’s starting to look like he can be a solid 3/4 guy, with a chance to move into that 2/3 tier.
Mets fans are the biggest losers.
Are they the biggest fans physically or is the magnitude of their loss the greatest?
lol. lmao
While this is generally true, they did great at this year’s trade deadline.
At the end of the offseason it became clear that the Orioles were not especially serious about trying to do anything beyond making the team a fringe 3rd WC contender and despite their inordinate success they don’t seem to have shifted their mindset much. I think Elias’s comments around buyers never winning trades are telling and I think we’re one offseason away from seeing whether this is an overly strict adherence to a rebuild timeline or just the way they’re going to operate indefinitely.
That’s a strange take from Elias, who was there the first time the Astros traded for Verlander–a deal they most certainly “won.”
I think he meant it more in the sense that when you strike the deal the buyer is always losing on an expected value basis and not that in hindsight you can say that they won because the prospects busted or something, but I read it as them being less willing to pay the premium necessary to make a Verlander trade in the first place.
It depends on your point of view. If buying at the deadline clearly helps you make the playoffs that year, I consider that to be a win, even if you get bounced in the first round. If the traded propect(s) also work(s) out, then it’s mostly a win-win trade.
I’d probably argue that in that specific scenario,a first round exit is not worth 7 years of a productive player
I think there is an argument that buying at the deadline is a bad deal, but not making any deals at all only works if you have a balanced system. The Orioles have–under team contract for the at least the next few years–something like six guys for 2B/SS/3B and another four guys in the outfield who all should be getting a shot somewhere. Even if you move guys like Mayo or Norby to the outfield, you still have 10 players for six positions, and that’s also before we consider that guys like Urias and Hays and Santander are still around for at least another year as well (I’m not sure when they become FAs).
Meanwhile, their rotation consists of one guy who might be a #3 someday (Bradish), a former top prospect who shows promise but is giving up every home run (Rodriguez), a couple of #4 starters (Gibson, Wells), a guy who hasn’t started his rehab assignment yet (Means), Cole Irvin, and Dean Kremer. In the minors, the only pitching prospects they have of FV5 or higher is a guy who is getting a lot of strikeouts but walking a lot of guys (Povich) and a near-certain reliever (Hall).
At some point this team needs to get good starting pitchers that you can trust in the playoffs. I don’t know how they do it, but if they’re not willing to draft them, sign them in free agency, or trade for them, you have a pretty narrow path to walk.
Counterpoint, their rotation is pretty average overall, depending on which numbers you want to use, and they have one of the best bullpens in baseball so they rely on the starters less anyway.
Counter-counter-point: by fWAR, their rotation is 20th, by bWAR, it’s 22nd, and they are 13th in IP, so they’re not appreciably using their bullpen more.
counter-counter-counter-point; From 2012 thru 2015 the WS was won by teams who’s starters were pretty mediocre by fWAR.
2012- San Fran, 18th
2013- Boston, 14th
2014- San Fran, 25th
2015- Kansas City, 15th
In fact in 2014 both teams in the WS were in the bottom half in fWAR for starters (yes, KC won back to back pennants with avg to below avg rotations).
I’m not saying its a good strategy but its also not completely crazy for it to happen.
I don’t disagree; there’s many different paths to winning in October. I was just making a point about the state of the O’s rotation.
I understand your point but with no aces at all in the rotation they are in trouble. You can’t get to the relievers without a starter pitching 5 innings. At least most of the time.
Right and if they come out this winter and sign Nola and Snell and double their payroll up to Milwaukee Brewers levels I’ll be the first one in the comments praising them, but until they actually put Peter Angelos’s money where Mike Elias’s mouth is I’m not going to just assume that they’re going to do anything more than this.
If I were them, the guys I would be going after are Nola and Urias, and if I missed on both of them, Giolito and E-Rod.
The Orioles seem to think they can fix guys. So if I put themselves in their shoes, I want guys who have been outstanding in the recent past who I think my player development team can turn back into their old self. (E-Rod doesn’t quite fit this but he seems to have some geographical preferences that would work to their advantage)
I’ve been thinking this all year. The Orioles have definitely proven that they can take guys like Bryan Baker and Cionel Perez and get a year or two of a serviceable reliever. Imagine what they could do with guys who are actually good when they show up to the facility.
I think Grayson Rodriguez will be a star but DL Hall is often injured and they don’t seem to know what to do with him. For this year’s playoffs their pitching (starters) is thin. But I noted ( as you mentioned ) they have too many infielders. I thought they would trade Mateo but they did not. Good team in Baltimore but navigating the playoffs will be difficult.
Dude is all about raising the Baseball America flag and hoarding all the prospects.
What the Orioles are doing reminds me of what the White Sox just did, just on a smaller payroll. They got just good enough to be close, then decided they didn’t need to be any better. That worked only to the point of two playoff wins in two years in Chicago.
Even if the O’s squander their current stockpile, finishing in 1st and getting past the ALDS will have topped what the White Sox’s rebuild has.
First of all, I agree with this analysis. I think the problem with the Orioles is that all of their best trade chips are raking in AAA. It’s hard to “win” a trade when pretty much the whole industry already knows that the minor-league players that they’re acquiring are going to at least be big league role players at the worst.
If you’re trading FV50+ level prospects who are in A ball, there’s still a couple years of development there where they could fail to pan out. The bust chance of guys with an OPS of .850+ in AA is lower than a player posting the same numbers 2 levels lower. Not saying that it doesn’t happen.
And meanwhile, the prevailing opinion here is that 3 years of a proven big leaguer having a down year and two prospects who crushed AA is a significantly worse return than a couple of kids in the FCL.
After all, Marco Vargas could be anything!
He could even be Josh Rojas!!!
I’d call Houston getting Justin Verlander for Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford an all in move. Gilbert could have been a future center fielder in Houston, which now may become a hole pretty soon. No it’s not many prospects for Juan Soto but nothing really is.
I’m not sure what the Orioles could have gotten for Hjerstad et al other than maybe Verlander. It’s hard to say what Dylan Cease would have cost. I suppose if they were willing to take on lots of money they might have able to get Verlander AND Scherzer in a massive deal. Or maybe Eduardo Rodriguez could have returned for a smaller return. Starting pitching was pretty scarce.
It’s an all-in move in the sense that they were the only two good prospects left in their system, and they traded them. Maybe Brice Matthews but he’s polarizing.
Same with the Angels. It’s just that for the Angels and Astros, “all-in” is just not a whole lot.
Chas McCormick’s breakout might have something to do with it.
ChiSox demanded Holliday as the headliner for Cease and wouldn’t move off it. Which isn’t totally out of line with the SP market, with rentals of lesser pitchers than Cease going for mid-top 100 hitters, but it’s hard to stomach.
I think the big winners are probably the D-Backs, Cubs, and the Cardinals.
The D-Backs didn’t give up anyone that they are likely to miss and came out of it with a very good reliever (with another year of team control) and probably the best hitting rental at the deadline.
The Cubs got a new third baseman for some guys who weren’t going to get protected in the Rule 5, and got to keep him away from the Brewers. The Brewers only made small upgrades, and the Reds made none.
The Cardinals still need to get a whole lot of starters this offseason but they got really good value on all of their deals. Robberse, Rom, and Kloffenstein probably get a shot in 2024 (if not this year), and unless Roby’s shoulder screws him up (which is the only reason he was available) he’ll be ready by 2025. Roby’s a high-ceiling prospect too.
You could also make a strong argument for the Mets (as Ben does), although it’s a bitter pill to swallow that they have to rebuild the whole rotation. I think the White Sox “won” all the deals they made (and in some cases by a lot) but they went into the deadline as such big losers it’s hard to say they are “winners” today. You could maybe throw the Rangers and Astros on there but the big winner out of that situation was the Mets.
Astros or Rangers would be biggest winners for me if they won a pennant with Verlander or Scherzer in the playoff rotation pitching well. Even if Gilbert or Clifford or Acuña had good careers, comparable to say Gleyber Torres. OK if one has a John Smoltz career maybe not.
Obviously if they win it all then they’re the biggest winners. But I can’t say that yet. Right now, neither team got a decisive edge for the division because the other one made moves as well.
Unfortunately I don’t know how to find out how much their WS odds improved before and after
You could look at the playoff odds page on the Wayback Machine but they also won or lost games in the interim and that probably had an effect as well.
You guys still project the Orioles to lose more than half their games going forward… maybe they know what they’re doing?
Nobody says they don’t know what they’re doing but they’re too risk adverse the AL is wide open and instead of taking a big swing they get another back end type.
They have the best record in the AL. They’re going to make the playoffs for the next 5 years. They’re fine. I’d rather trade prospects for pitching in the offseason when you get a better return.
I think the Tigers, Mariners, and White Sox probably also thought they would be making the playoffs for the next five years…
OK, but take your first example… the Tigers had a bottom third farm system in 2011 when they first made the playoffs and then they had a bottom third farm system in 2014 the last year they made the playoffs. They were never positioned for long term success like the Orioles are right now. And even then they still made the playoffs four years in a row. But their crappy system sentenced them to being terrible for a decade since.
except none of those three were ever as close to as good as the Orioles currently are
This is what I said about the Buccos in 2014 when they didn’t do anything for a down division and David Price was available. The next five years were an endless window of playoff appearances I told myself. How’d that work out?
You think it’s gonna be cake for the next five years in that division? Power to you, buddy. Hope it happens.
Jack allowed a 10 run outing in April and then back to back outings of 6 runs shortly after. Besides those 3 starts, he hasn’t allowed more than 4 runs this season. Idk how he became “back end” as a starter in people’s mind, even if he’s not the ace he looked pre-injuries.
Probably by having a worse FIP than Kyle Gibson since 2020.
Nice of the author not to even charge the Yankees with a forfeit. I guess a game-day scratch kind of covers it.
Loser: NYY. They didn’t buy or sell at the deadline which is probably the wrong move. 3.5 games out isn’t an insurmountable deficit, but with the way the Yankees have played over the last two months, it feels like it’s 10 games. They could’ve gotten some nice prospects back for Holmes, Torres, Wandy, Bader, etc. Either improve your roster and go for it, or sell whoever you can and gear up for 2024. This middle ground isn’t the way to operate. And I have a hard time thinking 2025 will be any better unless they sign like 2-3 bats.
This wasn’t even a middle ground!
Sell the rentals, buy Carlson is a genuine middle ground.
Sure, but when you’re mentioning trades with other teams, you never know if a deal could have ever been reached. It was reported that the Yanks liked Carlson, and it seemed as if the Cardinals were willing to trade him, but I bet there was a huge gap in valuation between the two teams. STL could ask for a high price, because there was no urgency to trade Carlson. It would be understandable if the Yankees thought STL’s valuation was way too high.
Yes, and I say that as someone who has never been a fan of Kjerstad. The project in Baltimore is not a one year window, so whether Heston plays his way into a starting role next season or gets dealt this winter for controllable young pitching, either is better than spending him on a lottery ticket that probably wouldn’t change the playoff odds very much.
Realistically, how much would dealing Kjerstad for Montgomery chance the team’s chances of winning the World Series or even getting there? Verlander was the only elite pitcher available, as Eduardo Rodriguez didn’t suddenly become a much better pitcher at 30, while Dylan Cease’s stuff has dropped off significantly this season.
Exactly right. By definition most of these trades don’t work out. We’re a lock for the playoffs. I can see going for it if we were sitting on the edge. But we’re in the tournament and we have the best record in baseball as constructed. Rather have 5 really good chances at winning a WS than swinging for the fences, shortening our window, and probably not meaningfully improving this year anyway.
“ we have the best record in baseball as constructed. ”
What does this mean? I’m assuming some fun with arbitrary endpoints and correlating the call up or IL return of some player with a hot streak?
I meant in the AL, not in baseball.
I think the O’s are in the second-toughest division in baseball (I’d rate the NL East now the toughest) and they’re not going to outbid the big revenue teams for FA’s. I think prospect hoarding makes sense for them in that they should only trade them for young-ish HoF-bound superstars or All-Stars under control for 3+ years.
I don’t know their prospects’ Rule-5 status, so they’ll eventually have to consolidate to not lose some of these guys, but I think they’ll do that for a bona fide Superstar or the controllable pitching you talk about in the offseason. Maybe Luis Robert, Logan Gilbert, or George Kirby? Should be an exciting off-season for the O’s.
Kjerstad is the only significant prospect who needs to be added to the 40 man this December. Rule 5 will be a bigger issue in 2024.
I hoped that Seattle might be willing to make a swap now, but I would be very happy for such an exchange in the winter as well. They have tons of young pitching, while we have plenty of hitters.
This may be an unpopular take but I think fans and sometimes ownership put too much emphasis on winning the WS as a measure of success. With expanded playoffs and evenly matched teams, post-season outcomes are basically random. A good franchise is competitive every year, gives their fans meaningful games throughout each season, sends their fans home happy more often than not, and occasionally gets hot at the right time and goes all the way.
Couldn’t agree more. The job of a GM should be to get their team into the playoffs consistently. Winning the WS is icing on the cake. This narrative that adding mid-tier SP at the deadline is going to be the difference is overblown.
I’m puzzled by the harsh treatment of the Marlins.
Are you the same Ben Clemens who four days ago posted an article with the headline: “2023 Marlins Fans and 2027 Mets Fans, Rejoice: Your Teams Made a Great Trade“?
Now you’re saying the Mets won the deal, particularly because they got a “buzzy” prospect who’s 18 years old and has proven nothing? And yet, in today’s article you seem enthused in observing that prospect-hugging diminished in this trade deadline.
Compare their Statcast MLB Percentile Rankings, and Bell’s look far better than Cooper’s:
Josh Bell Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | MLB.com | baseballsavant.com
Garrett Cooper Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | MLB.com | baseballsavant.com
I think it’s to Ng’s credit that she wasn’t tunneled into individual player profiles but rather viewed how Bell’s and Burger’s strengths were complementary:
“With 25 home runs two-thirds of the way into the season, with as many baserunners as we get on, we thought this was an opportunity for him [Burger] to get some RBI,” Ng said. “In terms of the profile, you always have an ideal that you’re shooting for, but you’re not necessarily going to get that profile on every single hitter. In Josh Bell, we do have a guy that has very good plate discipline, knows the strike zone very well. And we just thought that the mix of these two with our hitting staff is going to be great.”
It will be interesting to see how the new additions pan out.
Dodgers and Tigers were my big losers. I feel like the Tigers should have come up with a good sense of whether E-Rod was willing to waive his no-trade clause. And because they both took it so close to the deadline and didn’t realize he would veto the deal, the Dodgers weren’t able to pivot to an impactful plan B and the Tigers weren’t able to send their best trade piece somewhere he couldn’t veto. Poor job on both sides.
Yup. The Dodgers SP situation is not in a great place and their only additions were Lynn and Yarbarough? They apparently went all-in with ERod and that was a mistake. The only player we got with positive fwar was Yarbarough lol
I couldn’t agree more with your thoughts on the Orioles. They’re two “transaction windows” (last offseason and now the trade deadline) and counting too late on the pivot from building the engine to actually using that engine to win. It’d never happen, but honestly I think there’s an argument for teams in this situation to make a regime change – bring in a Dombrowski type to turn the foundation of a good team into an actual good team. Hell, keep paying Elias & co. to not do anything for the next 5 years and let him take over when the team needs to rebuild again. It’s tremendously frustrating as a fan to see these opportunities slip past for no good reason.
You’re welcome to your opinion, but I could not disagree more. I guess it comes down to what you want as a fan, to have consistent success or a once in a while chance to win it all. I side with the person above who defines franchise success as consistent winning.
It’s like people don’t bother to listen to what Elias says b/c they’re so busy getting ready to criticize. He has repeatedly said that the entire notion of “competitive windows” is not something he believes in. We’re trying to compete this year and next year and for the next 10 years after that.
In Astroball, it was noted that Mejdal essentially views the playoffs as luck and that trades are rarely “worth it.”
But with their system and big league club so loaded, does a large move for a frontline starter imperil the future by much? It’s not like they’re gonna trade Rutschman or Holliday and go back in the tank in 2026. Is it better to have a 10% chance for the next decade to win it all or a 50% chance for the next six? I never get why some fans are more worried about the 2028 version of their team than the version right in front of them. They should’ve done more.
No way is the choice between 6 years and 10 years. It’s more like 3 years versus 5 years because prospects and even All-Stars break and the Orioles have started drafting at the back of each round.
Trading FV50 Ortiz for ERod probably wouldn’t hurt the timeline, so maybe they should have done that one. Trading FV60 Holliday for Cease would have, so they shouldn’t do that one. (I think trading Holliday in a package for Robert, Gilbert, or Kirby in the off-season might make sense.)
It would have been funny if they traded Mullins for 2 FV50’s just to troll everyone here!
I’m using a decade because that’s what the OP said (which is ridiculous anyway). And I agree with you on those trade scenarios.
Fans and teams fall in love with their own prospects to such an alarming degree, thinking that they’ll all be some of the best versions of themselves. It almost never happens. And I say this as a card-carrying, broken-hearted fan who thought Gregory Polanco was going to be Dave Parker 2.0.
You write too much in generalities about the Orioles’ direction and about prospect realization. The Braves, Dodgers, Rays, and Astros haven’t had a problem with prospect realization and they win big year after year. Not every deadline deal results in receiving a Jack Clark, Cesar Cedeno, or Carlos Beltran who go on to crush it in the playoffs. Lot of these dudes are just ok.
So basically we want to weigh the probabilities that veteran acquisitions are impactful in the playoffs versus the probabilities that FV50’s in above are at least 2-win players over a couple of years. Orioles’ GM Elias is a smart guy, so I’m sure he’s done the math, and scouted his own guys. I like prospect hoarding in the Orioles’ context.
They have the second best record in baseball. They’re currently using the engine to win.
It gets to a point with the Orioles criticisms where it just becomes funny. Elias has done this, as he recently pointed out in local media, three times. He knows what he’s doing. Is he above criticism? No, but to suggest at this point that he (and Mejdal!) don’t have the “mental math” figured out is just completely lol.
Their starting pitching is lacking. They’re contending this year, and are willing to let it ride with starting pitching that is lacking, when high-end starting pitching is the statistically best way to overperform your overall talent level in the postseason.
It doesn’t mean they are totally punting. But it means their FO is content with a likely first round exit this year in favor of the farther future.
Verlander was the only high-end starting pitcher available.
Cease was available; they just didn’t want to pay the astronomical price (Holliday) for him. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but the cost/benefit of that decision will reverberate in years to come.
I don’t even think that’s a decision as much as it is a no-brainer. There’s no way in the world they should be trading the game’s best prospect for a pitcher with an ERA over 4.00 at this stage of their rebuild
Dylan Cease was only a high-end starter in 2022, the rest of his career has been well below that level. In 2023, his velocity is down 1.2 mph and his slider has lost most of its effectiveness. The White Sox made a huge mistake not trading him on the back of that 2022 performance, because he’s turning 28 and will never get back to that level again.
He put up 4.4 fWAR in ‘21, 4.4 in ‘22, and is on track to end this year around there too. He’s 7th in pitcher fWAR since the start of 2021 with 11.4 fWAR total, 0.2 behind Gerrit Cole. His bWAR is identical to his fWAR.
If you’re steadfastly opposed to trading the top prospect in baseball in exchange for 2.5 cheap years of Equivalent To Gerrit Cole, that’s fine. But the numbers say Cease is a top ten SP in baseball, even if not having as sterling a year.
I’m having trouble reconciling the notion that Cease was equally valuable in 2022 and 2021, given that he clearly performed at a much higher level in 2022 and over 18 more innings. At times like these, the idiosyncrasies of fWAR elude me.
By bWAR, Cease was top-end in 2022, pretty good in 2021, ok in 2023, and not good at all in 2020 or 2019. So no, he is definitely not a top ten SP in baseball, and his underlying indicators suggest that this season’s decline is not only real, but probably just the beginning of his downturn. The double whammy of 1.2 mph lost on his fastball with a massive reduction in whiff rate on the slider bodes ill. I think the White Sox made a massive mistake not trading him.
With an off season full of free agent starters it’s easy to see why a team like the O’s wouldn’t over pay to rent one of them. In my opinion you’d be better off letting the kids get through their first playoff performance before going all in on it. See who may not have what it takes to get you playoff wins before you invest so much for a single season.
It’s amazing to me how people think the O’s should be all in as though they’ll never have a chance like this with this team. Yes they have the capital to acquire these guys, but they also don’t have to do it all this year either. This is not some fluke team who’s not going to compete for the playoffs the next 3 years.
exactly. They’re at least a year ahead of schedule in terms on contending, and I’d argue this year can already be written as a success for them
Yep – this year is gravy, as part of a building process.
O’s FO was nowhere near content — Elias said they were very close to a couple more deals. But he also said they were “not going to set the farm system on fire” for what was available in this tiny window. They got a decent SP to soak up a few innings in the “dog days” and hopefully get playoff starts (actually I hope they go to a 6-man rotation for a month or 2 and bring Wells back to the pen). Means and Hall will hopefully make their returns, even if only as bullpen Leftys. I applaud everything they’ve done so far — including this deadline — and wouldn’t want any other front office in charge of my favorite team. Magic!
Great article, Ben. Probably the best summation of the trading deadline that I’ve read.
Ben is the best
One more thing: if the Mariners really were planning on trading Logan Gilbert for anything short of a Quintana-level return Dipoto should have his head checked. And he should probably ask for more since the team is still contending. I have no idea where these rumors came from but Mariners fans should be hoping they aren’t real.
Probably from the other side(s) wanting Gilber, not the M’s. Cease didn’t get traded bc Jackson Holliday was only headliner CHW would accept; pure rental pitchers (Giolito, Montgomery) who are decent but below the level of a Gilbert or Cease returned mid top-100 dudes for three months of their services. If Dipoto was actually open to trading Gilbert for less than Quintana-level, it would have happened; something equivalent to the Quintana package would be a steal in this market.
Dipoto said the interest in Gilbert, Kirby, etc was “more smoke than fire” and that no team even got around to naming potential returns for them. Which I am in fact glad to hear.
Orioles definitely needed to do more than a starter with xERA in the high fours since 2020
Did any of the trades make any team better than the Braves getting Fried back from injury will?
I don’t mean in surplus value added, but did any time improve their current state as much as Fried will improve the Braves? Or if we also want to include Wright eventually?
The best team in the game is going to improve the most just by getting healthy. Insane.
Fried’s a beast.
There’s exactly zero guarantee that a pitcher with a forearm strain will both get and remain healthy.
Elias and Orioles shocked me. They have 0 pitching. They finally have a good team this yr and yankees and Red Sox are down….it’s once in a lifetime opportunity to really go for it this yr. Guess they’re just happy making the playoffs because I don’t see them getting past first round with that pitching.
Every contender got better but them. The real World Series contenders picked up legit pieces and the experienced teams knew what to do.
Wouldn’t surprise me if they don’t make playoffs again for another decade after this season.
But hey I guess they got to keep some top prospects . 4 out of 5 of those guys wont make it past 2 yrs of service time.
I mean…whether you view their FOs as hamstrung or incompetent, there’s nothing about either the Sox or Yankees that should offer any threat to the Os in 2024.
Between NY and Boston’s rosters, Judge, Torres and MAYBE Volpe are the only pieces I’d project to be better than their Oriole equivalents in 2024.
(I grew up going to Hadlock. Mayer’s gotta crack a 70 wRC+ in the single most hitter friendly park in the Eastern League before anyone even pretends he’ll be an option in 2025.)
All these teams way over value prospects. Go back and look at your teams top 10 from 5 yrs ago and I bet only 1 is still playing in MLB.
Dombrowski is the one of the most successful gm’s in history and he’s about the only one that truly gets it amongst this current crop of spreadsheet checklist gm’s these days. No feel for the moment and game. How many Pennants and Rings has he won in the GM spreadsheet era?! Your teams #2-10 prospects won’t be in MLB longer than 2 yrs, so if you are on the cusp of WS team like Orioles are, you need to trade them and go for it.
Astros wanted Verlander this offseason, but Mets signed him for 43$MM….now they got him 4 months later in the time they really wanted him for and only have to pay him 17$Mm. It’s crazy. But but Oh they gave up some kid in A+….who cares theyre about to have legit shot at winning another WS. Keep your A+ player though that probably won’t have 2 yr career but these models say he’s worth 30$mm lol
Please point me toward the package of players in A+ that the Orioles could have traded for a front end SP.
Could’ve gotten an elite rental LHP Eduardo Rodriguez for cheap. Tigers got tired of dealing with Elias so they traded him to the dodgers who know what they’re doing and are experienced in this time. Erod just happened to excercise his NTC. Tigers gm kept him rather than sent him to orioles.
Except that Erod sucks
He’s ranked the 6th best pitcher in MLB this year sorting by FIP (60ip minimum). He’d be far and away the ace of the orioles in the playoffs. He was a Rental and all the Orioles had to do was give up 1 propsect in the 6- 10th range for him. Gues they didn’t because the owner doesnt have the money to pay his contract of 15$MM a yr if he decided to opt in.
Ed is having a great season, but it’s not entirely clear why, and therefore it’s hard to believe that will continue. His velocity is the same, his contact rates are the same, his swinging strike rate is actually lower than his earlier years, his hard hit rate is normal, and his average exit velocity is normal. The only differences of note are a lower HR/FB%, which is lucky, and a slightly higher zone percentage.
It’s just not believable that he became a significantly better pitcher at age 30 when he has been so consistent the rest of his career.
They could’ve gotten an elite rental for “cheap” when they’re a year ahead of their expected contention, or just wait until the off season and buy a guy or two in a flooded starter free agent market. Which is the wiser move? They’ll have more than a single year to compete so going all in the first year isn’t the best of ideas.
[citation needed]
I agree that the Orioles could have been more aggressive this deadline, but I don’t think you should pay more just because you can. Elias has proven to be strict to his plan, and has paid off thus far.
The one comment I strongly disagree with is that this is their time to go for it because you don’t know if you will be in this same position next year. This Orioles team is ahead of schedule. Aside from injuries (which no one can predict) this team will be even better next year with additions of young talent and more major league at bats for the players already on the roster. With a front line pitching addition (which is what the prospects are being saved for), this team will be in contention for the AL East title for the next 5 years.
Reds were another team that surprised me. They’re going to need way more down stretch. Wouldn’t surprise me if someone else jumped them and bumps them out
I think every GM sees player contracts as assets. I’m not sure how many GMs fully recognize that they are depreciating assets.