Effectively Wild Episode 2098: A Team Deferred
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley call for a listener referendum on how to treat Shohei Ohtani’s unprecedented contract in the EW free-agent-contract over/under draft, then (20:43) banter about the Royals’ recent pitching additions and a wizardly Will Smith. After that (33:32), they talk to FanGraphs lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen about the players from Asian leagues who have enlivened the MLB free-agent market (including reports on new Giants addition Jung Hoo Lee 이정후, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, Yuki Matsui, and Yariel Rodríguez), Eric’s process for evaluating international players, how perceptions of Asian leagues’ strengths and top talents have evolved, Erick Fedde and other players who’ve improved after going overseas, the best Asian players who are still years away from MLB, stylistic differences among leagues, and more.
Audio intro: The Gagnés, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Daniel Leckie, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Link to vote on the Ohtani contract
Link to latest over/under draft
Link to over/under draft wiki
Link to EW drafts/competitions sheet
Link to AP on Ohtani’s deal
Link to L.A. Times on Ohtani’s deal
Link to Sportico on Ohtani’s deal
Link to Clemens on Ohtani’s deal
Link to Zaidi on Ohtani
Link to FG post on Royals signings
Link to FG SP depth charts
Link to BaseRuns standings
Link to Gonny Jomes wiki
Link to article on Smith’s streak
Link to article on Hinske’s streak
Link to article on swimming witches
Link to wizard vs. warlock
Link to Lee cheer song
Link to EW guest appearance data
Link to DeltaGraphs
Link to Ben on DeltaGraphs
Link to Synergy Sports
Link to Eric on Lee
Link to SIS on Lee
Link to study on velocity splits
Link to SIS on Yamamoto
Link to info on Yamamoto meeting
Link to Eric on Fedde
Link to Bannister on Fedde
Link to Jyun Yue Tseng news
Link to Davenport on league strength
Link to Ben on NPB teams’ scouting
Link to Eric’s Board update
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I have not listened yet, but kudos to this amazing title.
The answer is C – Ohtani counts neither for nor against Meg’s team. Ohtani shouldn’t have been allowed as his variability was far too high.
But, if you must choose it has to be to allow it. The math around future value is just too much. We discount the $68m being paid to Ohtani in year 11 at ~46m but if it had been a traditional contract do we discount $70m in year 10 to ~48? No.
But that’s the game, isn’t it? And she could have taken the over on Ohtani, and won handily.
I dislike changing the rules when the draft has happened – other signings weren’t discounted despite their deferrals. If they want to change the rules next, absolutely fine. Just like any owner upset by Ohtani’s deal – tough, you signed off on these rules. Sorry, Meg, but you’ve got to take this one.
I think it has to count, but I don’t think it eliminates Meg quite as quickly as you think. She already got 56 back with Lee. If Ben misses a couple it might be closer than assumed.
OTOH, The deck was already stack against Meg since Ben will probably get about 50-75 from Bellinger.
Staunchly team “Screw intellectual honesty”. The point of the over/under draft is that it’s a fun game. If the Ohtani pick being valued at its full real money value means the winner of the draft is clearly determined before most of the players drafted are signed… well then present value is the option that sounds like it will lead to more fun as further signings roll in.