2024 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Atlanta Braves.

Batters

Gosh, what do you even say about this lineup? The top six starters — Ronald Acuña Jr., Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies — basically get you two-thirds of the way to a playoff spot all by themselves. ZiPS puts a 50/50 season in reach for Acuña, and his projected WAR is more than a win better than anyone else in baseball. Eight of his top 10 comps ought to be Hall of Famers (Betts is still playing), and ZiPS now has him finishing with a mean career projection in excess of 650 homers, with nearly 600 stolen bases and more than 3,000 hits. And he’s locked up for the next five years, so there’s no chance of him taking a mystery plane ride to a sushi restaurant in Toronto.

You could lop Acuña off the top and this would still look like one of the top teams in baseball. The other five guys mentioned so far are all in their primes, and only Olson has hit age 30. ZiPS isn’t completely sold on Orlando Arcia, though it does have greater confidence in him being a league-average player than it did before last season; the computer is still casting a side eye at Marcell Ozuna, whose production has been rather up-and-down over the years. The only real weak spot in the starting lineup is Jarred Kelenic’s tepid projection; even with his performance slumping after April, I expected a rosier outlook, though this isn’t out of whack with what Steamer sees for the former Mariner.

Vaughn Grissom is on the depth chart in a sub role, but I can’t help but think that he ought to be a prime trade candidate this winter. David Fletcher is a suitable backup who can fake being a starter for a while if need be, and ZiPS sees the team’s other minor league shortstop options as more than adequate candidates for being dragooned into utility duties. I can’t say exactly why Atlanta pulled the trigger, but ZiPS certainly sees the lure of Ignacio Alvarez and Luke Waddell over hanging on to Braden Shewmake and Nicky Lopez.

The farm system is pretty empty when it comes to hitters, but the Braves are only looking for emergency reinforcements.

Pitchers

Spencer Strider and Max Fried are a scary one-two out of the rotation, and ZiPS sees Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder as perfectly adequate complementary talent, even after the latter’s late-season swoon. Allan Winans looks like a reasonable no. 5 starter and Ian Anderson ought to be back sometime in 2024. ZiPS is less bullish about AJ Smith-Shawver, but that projection would still be just fine for a fifth or sixth starter. With the offense looking nearly otherworldly, it would definitely make sense to focus any trade talks or cash splashings on bringing in another pitcher or two. And not just for 2024; Fried and Morton are both free agents after this season and Morton is in his 40s now. It would be a lot of fun to see the Braves go after someone like Yoshinobu Yamamoto with all the savings they’ve gotten from the very team-friendly contracts Acuña and Albies signed.

Reynaldo López is the wild card here, and it’s still uncertain how the Braves will use him when push comes to shove. ZiPS projects him to have a 4.20 ERA if he’s used as a full-time starter compared to a 3.10 mark as a full-time reliever.

The bullpen isn’t flashy, but it’s deep and perhaps still underrated. ZiPS forecasts all of the Braves’ relievers with ERA+ numbers over 100 until you get pretty far down the depth chart (Daysbel Hernández). Even Aaron Bummer (who White Sox fans seem to hate more than any person or thing that has ever existed, at least if my social media after the trade is any indication) projects for a nice little bounce-back season and a sub .600 OPS against lefties. The relief corps will also get a reinforcement or two depending on who ends up getting starts this year.

The depth chart suggests a >100 win projection, which is exceedingly rare in ZiPS (or any projection system). That number will probably come down a bit, as I’m not quite as bullish on the Iron Man playing time as the depth charts are, and I suspect a few more closer-to-replacement names will get some plate appearances/innings in 2024. Still, this is a very dangerous team. Unfortunately for the Braves, being a very dangerous team only gives you about a 20% chance of winning the World Series, baseball being baseball.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Ronald Acuña Jr. R 26 RF 688 585 140 178 34 2 43 116 88 114 51 10
Austin Riley R 27 3B 655 582 96 164 32 2 34 103 55 156 2 1
Sean Murphy R 29 C 484 418 64 106 25 1 22 72 49 111 0 1
Matt Olson L 30 1B 661 565 95 147 31 1 37 116 86 146 1 1
Michael Harris II L 23 CF 578 538 81 150 33 3 20 79 30 119 21 4
Ozzie Albies B 27 2B 636 579 93 158 33 4 26 97 45 106 12 4
Vaughn Grissom R 23 SS 560 503 73 134 27 3 10 68 42 95 11 3
Travis d’Arnaud R 35 C 311 284 35 71 16 1 11 43 21 73 0 1
Marcell Ozuna R 33 LF 506 454 62 115 22 0 25 78 48 117 1 1
Orlando Arcia R 29 SS 466 425 55 107 21 0 14 58 36 89 2 1
Ignacio Alvarez R 21 SS 491 434 53 105 19 1 6 51 45 103 8 3
David Fletcher R 30 SS 489 459 53 126 20 2 3 50 25 43 6 2
Luke Waddell L 25 SS 511 455 57 115 16 2 7 48 48 76 12 6
Drake Baldwin L 23 C 458 407 48 95 22 1 11 55 43 117 0 1
Forrest Wall L 28 CF 421 380 54 92 16 4 5 45 34 117 33 7
Alejo Lopez B 28 2B 490 438 56 114 21 1 4 53 43 74 8 2
Mitchell Tolman L 30 3B 377 334 42 75 16 3 6 43 30 99 3 2
Yolmer Sánchez B 32 3B 424 365 41 78 13 2 6 38 49 116 3 2
Jarred Kelenic L 24 LF 492 439 59 105 26 2 15 70 48 139 13 5
Dalton Guthrie R 28 CF 376 341 40 83 17 2 5 42 24 94 6 3
Luis Liberato L 28 CF 342 303 41 70 15 3 8 42 31 98 5 3
Eli White R 30 CF 265 236 33 49 6 1 7 29 25 90 10 2
Joe Hudson R 33 C 244 213 23 41 7 0 6 27 26 86 1 1
Kevin Pillar R 35 LF 289 270 40 66 12 2 10 39 13 64 5 2
Daniel Robertson R 30 3B 238 210 26 45 9 0 4 23 21 59 0 1
Cody Milligan L 25 CF 430 385 56 92 17 3 2 38 38 105 13 4
Chadwick Tromp R 29 C 274 252 29 56 12 0 8 30 21 71 0 1
Dominic Miroglio R 29 C 250 225 23 50 11 1 5 30 20 55 0 1
Joe Dunand R 28 1B 379 342 35 72 16 1 10 47 28 125 2 1
Luke Williams R 27 SS 389 352 49 82 14 2 7 41 31 103 19 5
Ryan Casteel R 33 C 248 226 23 48 9 1 10 32 19 84 0 1
Eddie Rosario L 32 LF 465 432 51 106 20 2 17 67 28 93 5 3
Magneuris Sierra L 28 RF 319 295 37 67 9 3 3 27 20 79 14 3
Cade Bunnell L 27 3B 457 404 45 74 17 2 13 47 48 208 3 1
Jesse Franklin V L 25 LF 390 356 43 74 18 2 15 53 23 136 10 3
Andrew Velazquez R 29 SS 333 298 38 60 13 2 5 34 27 113 20 3
Keshawn Ogans R 22 3B 444 397 38 93 18 1 7 50 29 105 5 4
Justin Dean R 27 CF 418 368 51 73 10 3 6 40 39 156 18 5
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. R 23 CF 531 479 61 99 20 5 4 46 41 163 15 3
Ehire Adrianza B 34 SS 148 131 17 32 7 1 2 14 13 31 1 1
Chad Pinder R 32 3B 287 268 31 62 14 0 8 42 17 85 1 1
Jesús Aguilar R 34 DH 397 358 34 86 15 0 11 51 32 98 0 1
David McCabe B 24 3B 506 453 48 104 20 1 12 53 48 139 4 2
Sebastián Rivero R 25 C 260 241 22 53 13 1 3 30 12 67 0 1
Charlie Culberson R 35 1B 165 153 14 34 7 1 2 15 8 53 3 1
Tyler Tolve L 23 C 251 231 29 49 8 1 8 29 16 85 2 1
Drew Campbell L 26 RF 331 307 33 68 11 2 7 37 14 95 6 5
Andrew Moritz L 27 LF 272 251 29 60 8 1 1 22 18 66 4 2
Landon Stephens R 26 RF 429 382 41 72 15 1 17 55 37 183 1 2
Arden Pabst R 29 C 169 157 12 26 5 0 4 16 10 69 0 1
Jacob Pearson L 26 LF 286 260 25 50 11 2 3 23 21 88 6 3
Joshua Fuentes R 31 1B 351 330 35 73 12 1 6 36 15 97 2 1
Brandon Parker R 25 LF 266 236 28 45 10 1 5 27 22 100 4 2
Beau Philip R 25 3B 358 323 33 58 10 1 6 31 29 139 4 2
Javier Valdes R 25 C 297 258 30 59 12 1 7 37 27 73 1 1
Hendrik Clementina R 27 C 250 234 19 47 7 0 7 28 11 92 0 1
Geraldo Quintero B 22 2B 507 460 54 106 17 5 4 44 39 115 14 8
Cal Conley L 24 SS 553 508 67 112 18 4 6 48 32 141 16 7
Hudson Potts R 25 1B 317 294 26 52 14 0 9 34 19 133 0 1
Bryson Worrell B 25 RF 278 250 24 41 8 3 4 24 23 125 7 1
Bryson Horne L 25 1B 400 376 29 77 15 1 7 37 19 140 2 1

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Ronald Acuña Jr. 688 .304 .403 .590 164 .285 .315 2 7.3 .417 153
Austin Riley 655 .282 .351 .519 132 .237 .332 -1 4.4 .368 107
Sean Murphy 484 .254 .349 .476 121 .222 .295 7 4.0 .355 70
Matt Olson 661 .260 .360 .515 134 .255 .288 2 3.6 .370 105
Michael Harris II 578 .279 .322 .463 110 .184 .326 8 3.6 .336 86
Ozzie Albies 636 .273 .327 .478 115 .206 .295 -1 3.2 .342 95
Vaughn Grissom 560 .266 .336 .392 97 .125 .312 -4 1.8 .319 70
Travis d’Arnaud 311 .250 .312 .430 98 .180 .300 3 1.6 .321 38
Marcell Ozuna 506 .253 .326 .467 112 .214 .288 -1 1.5 .340 70
Orlando Arcia 466 .252 .311 .400 91 .148 .289 1 1.5 .310 54
Ignacio Alvarez 491 .242 .326 .332 79 .090 .305 2 1.2 .296 50
David Fletcher 489 .275 .314 .346 79 .072 .298 3 1.1 .291 52
Luke Waddell 511 .253 .325 .343 82 .090 .290 -1 1.0 .298 56
Drake Baldwin 458 .233 .317 .373 86 .140 .301 -3 1.0 .305 49
Forrest Wall 421 .242 .310 .345 77 .103 .337 3 0.9 .290 50
Alejo Lopez 490 .260 .333 .340 83 .080 .306 0 0.9 .301 52
Mitchell Tolman 377 .225 .302 .344 75 .120 .301 6 0.7 .286 36
Yolmer Sánchez 424 .214 .313 .310 70 .096 .296 6 0.6 .283 37
Jarred Kelenic 492 .239 .315 .410 95 .171 .316 0 0.6 .313 61
Dalton Guthrie 376 .243 .307 .349 78 .106 .322 2 0.5 .291 39
Luis Liberato 342 .231 .301 .380 83 .149 .315 1 0.5 .297 37
Eli White 265 .208 .291 .331 68 .123 .302 3 0.3 .278 26
Joe Hudson 244 .192 .287 .310 62 .117 .289 3 0.3 .269 20
Kevin Pillar 289 .244 .287 .415 87 .170 .286 2 0.3 .302 34
Daniel Robertson 238 .214 .303 .314 68 .100 .279 3 0.2 .279 20
Cody Milligan 430 .239 .312 .314 71 .075 .324 1 0.2 .280 42
Chadwick Tromp 274 .222 .281 .365 73 .143 .277 -1 0.2 .282 26
Dominic Miroglio 250 .222 .292 .347 72 .124 .273 -1 0.1 .282 23
Joe Dunand 379 .211 .282 .351 70 .140 .300 9 0.1 .279 35
Luke Williams 389 .233 .298 .344 74 .111 .310 -5 0.0 .283 42
Ryan Casteel 248 .212 .278 .394 79 .181 .288 -4 0.0 .290 25
Eddie Rosario 465 .245 .291 .419 89 .174 .276 -2 -0.1 .304 55
Magneuris Sierra 319 .227 .278 .308 59 .081 .300 9 -0.1 .259 29
Cade Bunnell 457 .183 .274 .332 63 .149 .333 3 -0.1 .269 38
Jesse Franklin V 390 .208 .269 .396 77 .188 .288 2 -0.1 .287 41
Andrew Velazquez 333 .201 .269 .309 56 .107 .306 0 -0.1 .257 30
Keshawn Ogans 444 .234 .303 .338 74 .103 .302 -3 -0.2 .285 43
Justin Dean 418 .198 .288 .291 58 .092 .325 2 -0.2 .263 37
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. 531 .207 .278 .294 56 .088 .304 6 -0.3 .257 43
Ehire Adrianza 148 .244 .318 .359 83 .115 .306 -6 -0.3 .299 16
Chad Pinder 287 .231 .279 .373 75 .142 .309 -4 -0.4 .283 28
Jesús Aguilar 397 .240 .302 .374 82 .134 .301 0 -0.4 .294 41
David McCabe 506 .230 .302 .358 78 .128 .305 -10 -0.6 .291 51
Sebastián Rivero 260 .220 .266 .320 58 .100 .292 -4 -0.7 .258 21
Charlie Culberson 165 .222 .264 .320 57 .098 .327 -1 -0.7 .256 14
Tyler Tolve 251 .212 .267 .359 68 .147 .297 -9 -0.8 .272 23
Drew Campbell 331 .221 .263 .339 62 .117 .298 4 -0.8 .261 31
Andrew Moritz 272 .239 .294 .291 60 .052 .321 0 -0.8 .263 23
Landon Stephens 429 .188 .273 .366 71 .178 .302 0 -0.8 .280 39
Arden Pabst 169 .166 .219 .274 33 .108 .262 -1 -0.8 .219 10
Jacob Pearson 286 .192 .256 .285 47 .092 .278 5 -0.9 .242 21
Joshua Fuentes 351 .221 .262 .318 56 .097 .295 5 -0.9 .255 28
Brandon Parker 266 .191 .274 .305 57 .114 .305 -1 -1.0 .261 21
Beau Philip 358 .180 .254 .272 43 .093 .292 2 -1.1 .238 24
Javier Valdes 297 .229 .323 .364 86 .136 .292 -21 -1.1 .306 31
Hendrik Clementina 250 .201 .244 .321 51 .120 .296 -9 -1.3 .247 19
Geraldo Quintero 507 .230 .298 .315 67 .085 .299 -11 -1.4 .275 49
Cal Conley 553 .220 .275 .307 58 .087 .294 -8 -1.4 .258 49
Hudson Potts 317 .177 .230 .316 46 .139 .283 3 -1.5 .239 22
Bryson Worrell 278 .164 .245 .268 39 .104 .306 -2 -1.6 .232 18
Bryson Horne 400 .205 .245 .306 48 .101 .306 -1 -2.2 .242 29

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Ronald Acuña Jr. Frank Robinson Willie Mays Mookie Betts
Austin Riley Whitey Kurowski Vern Stephens Jim Ray Hart
Sean Murphy Geovany Soto Sherm Lollar Dave Nilsson
Matt Olson Mark Teixeira David Ortiz Carlos Delgado
Michael Harris II Bobby Tolan Rich Coggins Vada Pinson
Ozzie Albies Jorge Polanco Dickie Thon Robin Yount
Vaughn Grissom Tony Fernandez Dave Cash Derek Jeter
Travis d’Arnaud Bill Freehan Ray Mueller Tim Thompson
Marcell Ozuna Chuck Klein Eddie Robinson Ben Oglivie
Orlando Arcia Ray Boone David Bell Mike Rex
Ignacio Alvarez Rich Aurilia John Busco David Garcia
David Fletcher Luis Figueroa José Iglesias Chico Fernandez
Luke Waddell Jeff Huson Sonny Jackson Tim Jones
Drake Baldwin George Kottaras Jerry Willard Bill Freehan
Forrest Wall Michael Bourn Micah Johnson Thomas Milone
Alejo Lopez Marty Barrett Donovan Walton Walter Fiala
Mitchell Tolman Tug Hulett Frank Quilici Craig Stansberry
Yolmer Sánchez Paul Runge Dick Schofield Dave Owen
Jarred Kelenic Andy Van Slyke Josh Lowe Willie Crawford
Dalton Guthrie Stephen Douglas Eddie Christian James Tomlin
Luis Liberato Skye Bolt Brian Goodwin Joe Wallis
Eli White Reggie Thomas Gale Wade Bert Hamric
Joe Hudson Joe Lonnett Jarrod Saltalamacchia Wes Westrum
Kevin Pillar Carl Reynolds Cesar Cedeno Mitch Webster
Daniel Robertson Rich Morales Ricky Magdaleno Mike Reynolds
Cody Milligan Kevin Reese Mallex Smith Reggie West
Chadwick Tromp Wyatt Toregas Matt Lauderdale Michael Perez
Dominic Miroglio Buddy Booker J.C. Martin Mark Strittmatter
Joe Dunand Mike Gonzales Brock Peterson Tyler Brilinski
Luke Williams Mike Brumley Jimmy Sexton Alfredo Amezaga
Ryan Casteel Sal Fasano Geovany Soto Art Kusnyer
Eddie Rosario Ken Landreaux Carl Reynolds Ken Walters
Magneuris Sierra Chris Cosbey Gary Villacres David Hulse
Cade Bunnell Andy Tracy Shanie Dugas Tom Quinlan 퀸란
Jesse Franklin V Edwin Chasteen Jerry Gil Dick Sharon
Andrew Velazquez Jimmy Sexton Chris Owings Connor Kopach
Keshawn Ogans Gersan Jarquin William Wagner Aaron Ledesma
Justin Dean Jeff Duncan Dwaine Bacon Bernie Walker
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. Eric Johnson Terrell Lowery Tony Russell
Ehire Adrianza Ramon Santiago Jeff Reboulet Tom Foley
Chad Pinder Luis Aguayo Scott Seabol 스캇 Tyler Houston
Jesús Aguilar John Rodriguez Wil Cordero Willie Montanez
David McCabe Pedro Castellano Mike Edwards George Weicker
Sebastián Rivero Rick Wrona Sean Rooney Henry Gatewood
Charlie Culberson Chris Jones Charlie Fox Joe Rossi
Tyler Tolve Nephtale Mora Frank Lucy Ralph DiMeglio
Drew Campbell Darryl Monroe Pete Pirman Joe Holden
Andrew Moritz Andrew Simunic Danny Oh Sean Danielson
Landon Stephens Rich Barry Mike Hocutt Matt Gundelfinger
Arden Pabst Gary Tremblay Jeff Hearron Jared Price
Jacob Pearson Jeff DeBlieux Marcus Knight Ken Cameron
Joshua Fuentes Jose Arcia Myles Schroder Jim Lynn
Brandon Parker Bret Berglund Brandon Copeland Steve Haake
Beau Philip Stu Cole Mike Hampton Mickey Micelotta
Javier Valdes Dave Valle Bob Bonalewicz Wynston Sawyer
Hendrik Clementina Ryan Sienko Joseph Muich Mike Wright
Geraldo Quintero Jesmuel Valentín Paul Plinski Tyler Pastornicky
Cal Conley Juan Perez Wilson Batista Cleatus Davidson
Hudson Potts John Westmoreland Mike Burns Dave Pregon
Bryson Worrell Jayson Bass Bo Williams Anthony Vega
Bryson Horne Steve Cordner Raul Padron Manuel Rodriguez

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Ronald Acuña Jr. .331 .431 .660 187 9.3 .279 .376 .536 143 5.4
Austin Riley .306 .375 .584 152 6.1 .255 .326 .468 113 3.0
Sean Murphy .278 .374 .540 143 5.3 .226 .324 .425 102 2.9
Matt Olson .281 .385 .578 155 5.4 .234 .334 .469 117 2.3
Michael Harris II .307 .350 .516 130 5.0 .247 .295 .405 88 1.8
Ozzie Albies .297 .354 .534 135 4.8 .250 .302 .428 97 1.7
Vaughn Grissom .293 .361 .443 116 3.2 .242 .310 .352 80 0.7
Travis d’Arnaud .281 .337 .489 119 2.4 .221 .284 .377 78 0.8
Marcell Ozuna .281 .353 .522 133 2.8 .227 .299 .410 93 0.3
Orlando Arcia .281 .339 .449 111 2.6 .228 .284 .352 73 0.5
Ignacio Alvarez .266 .353 .372 96 2.2 .212 .298 .295 61 0.0
David Fletcher .304 .344 .387 96 2.1 .243 .286 .307 61 -0.1
Luke Waddell .281 .353 .383 97 2.1 .227 .297 .306 65 -0.1
Drake Baldwin .262 .343 .421 103 1.9 .208 .290 .322 67 -0.1
Forrest Wall .271 .333 .389 96 2.0 .216 .281 .301 61 0.0
Alejo Lopez .289 .358 .382 102 2.0 .234 .307 .307 68 0.0
Mitchell Tolman .251 .331 .390 92 1.5 .198 .276 .300 56 -0.1
Yolmer Sánchez .239 .342 .351 85 1.5 .190 .288 .272 54 -0.2
Jarred Kelenic .265 .342 .462 112 1.7 .210 .290 .356 75 -0.6
Dalton Guthrie .271 .334 .394 96 1.3 .216 .279 .308 59 -0.4
Luis Liberato .255 .328 .427 101 1.2 .203 .269 .336 64 -0.3
Eli White .240 .323 .379 88 1.0 .181 .258 .279 47 -0.3
Joe Hudson .223 .318 .368 81 0.9 .165 .255 .260 42 -0.3
Kevin Pillar .272 .314 .474 111 1.1 .212 .257 .359 68 -0.5
Daniel Robertson .243 .335 .362 88 0.8 .184 .272 .267 48 -0.4
Cody Milligan .263 .337 .350 85 1.0 .210 .284 .277 53 -0.7
Chadwick Tromp .252 .308 .426 95 0.9 .196 .251 .313 53 -0.6
Dominic Miroglio .259 .322 .407 94 0.8 .194 .258 .294 51 -0.6
Joe Dunand .237 .311 .402 90 0.9 .185 .253 .310 53 -0.8
Luke Williams .261 .329 .400 94 1.0 .203 .269 .304 57 -0.9
Ryan Casteel .237 .304 .457 101 0.6 .184 .252 .327 56 -0.8
Eddie Rosario .272 .319 .478 110 1.1 .212 .261 .361 66 -1.4
Magneuris Sierra .252 .303 .347 75 0.6 .202 .253 .276 44 -0.7
Cade Bunnell .212 .301 .389 85 1.0 .153 .245 .279 43 -1.3
Jesse Franklin V .236 .294 .454 99 0.9 .181 .241 .341 56 -1.2
Andrew Velazquez .229 .302 .365 77 0.9 .175 .243 .264 38 -0.9
Keshawn Ogans .261 .326 .378 89 0.7 .208 .278 .298 56 -1.2
Justin Dean .227 .318 .341 76 0.6 .167 .263 .250 40 -1.2
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. .232 .302 .334 72 0.9 .181 .253 .254 40 -1.3
Ehire Adrianza .271 .348 .402 103 0.1 .215 .287 .311 64 -0.6
Chad Pinder .260 .308 .422 94 0.3 .203 .251 .327 57 -1.0
Jesús Aguilar .268 .328 .420 99 0.4 .212 .275 .327 62 -1.4
David McCabe .251 .325 .401 94 0.3 .201 .272 .316 62 -1.7
Sebastián Rivero .252 .299 .368 77 0.0 .191 .238 .276 41 -1.3
Charlie Culberson .255 .298 .370 78 -0.3 .189 .234 .272 36 -1.2
Tyler Tolve .239 .297 .413 88 -0.1 .185 .242 .304 47 -1.4
Drew Campbell .248 .289 .394 81 0.1 .201 .238 .295 44 -1.5
Andrew Moritz .272 .325 .328 76 -0.2 .211 .265 .255 43 -1.4
Landon Stephens .219 .299 .426 91 0.3 .158 .244 .309 50 -1.9
Arden Pabst .197 .251 .343 56 -0.3 .140 .190 .231 13 -1.3
Jacob Pearson .222 .289 .331 67 -0.2 .167 .227 .248 30 -1.5
Joshua Fuentes .251 .290 .368 76 -0.1 .194 .235 .278 39 -1.7
Brandon Parker .218 .301 .349 75 -0.4 .163 .248 .257 40 -1.5
Beau Philip .205 .280 .318 59 -0.4 .152 .229 .233 26 -1.9
Javier Valdes .265 .357 .426 112 -0.2 .196 .296 .309 65 -1.8
Hendrik Clementina .229 .275 .375 70 -0.7 .172 .214 .274 31 -2.0
Geraldo Quintero .259 .325 .356 85 -0.3 .207 .274 .277 51 -2.4
Cal Conley .243 .300 .341 72 -0.4 .196 .252 .274 42 -2.5
Hudson Potts .203 .257 .359 64 -0.7 .148 .205 .267 28 -2.2
Bryson Worrell .192 .276 .317 60 -0.9 .133 .215 .226 21 -2.3
Bryson Horne .231 .269 .348 65 -1.3 .179 .217 .265 30 -3.1

Batters – Projected Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Ronald Acuña Jr. .304 .412 .602 .304 .399 .585
Austin Riley .288 .363 .548 .279 .346 .506
Sean Murphy .254 .355 .458 .254 .346 .486
Matt Olson .253 .347 .476 .263 .366 .532
Michael Harris II .266 .311 .435 .285 .328 .476
Ozzie Albies .295 .343 .512 .264 .321 .465
Vaughn Grissom .265 .340 .389 .267 .332 .394
Travis d’Arnaud .261 .330 .420 .245 .304 .434
Marcell Ozuna .254 .328 .475 .253 .325 .464
Orlando Arcia .255 .322 .416 .250 .306 .392
Ignacio Alvarez .248 .341 .329 .238 .317 .333
David Fletcher .278 .320 .352 .273 .311 .343
Luke Waddell .243 .313 .333 .257 .330 .347
Drake Baldwin .229 .311 .358 .235 .318 .379
Forrest Wall .227 .295 .333 .251 .318 .351
Alejo Lopez .257 .335 .323 .262 .331 .351
Mitchell Tolman .219 .297 .332 .241 .316 .379
Yolmer Sánchez .212 .314 .314 .215 .312 .308
Jarred Kelenic .235 .307 .403 .241 .319 .414
Dalton Guthrie .247 .316 .354 .240 .300 .344
Luis Liberato .224 .295 .362 .235 .305 .390
Eli White .204 .297 .347 .210 .286 .319
Joe Hudson .200 .305 .333 .187 .273 .293
Kevin Pillar .256 .299 .456 .239 .281 .394
Daniel Robertson .220 .312 .341 .211 .297 .297
Cody Milligan .226 .297 .297 .248 .322 .326
Chadwick Tromp .230 .298 .389 .216 .267 .345
Dominic Miroglio .227 .301 .355 .217 .283 .339
Joe Dunand .217 .291 .376 .205 .275 .330
Luke Williams .240 .313 .356 .228 .288 .335
Ryan Casteel .213 .288 .404 .212 .271 .386
Eddie Rosario .237 .279 .377 .248 .295 .434
Magneuris Sierra .226 .270 .310 .227 .281 .308
Cade Bunnell .177 .272 .323 .187 .274 .337
Jesse Franklin V .198 .263 .380 .213 .272 .404
Andrew Velazquez .210 .282 .328 .196 .260 .296
Keshawn Ogans .242 .317 .329 .230 .295 .343
Justin Dean .202 .298 .306 .195 .279 .277
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. .208 .286 .292 .206 .273 .296
Ehire Adrianza .250 .333 .364 .241 .309 .356
Chad Pinder .239 .289 .398 .226 .271 .355
Jesús Aguilar .242 .314 .379 .239 .296 .372
David McCabe .224 .299 .347 .232 .304 .363
Sebastián Rivero .224 .274 .316 .217 .261 .322
Charlie Culberson .231 .275 .354 .216 .255 .295
Tyler Tolve .211 .265 .355 .213 .268 .361
Drew Campbell .215 .261 .318 .225 .264 .350
Andrew Moritz .230 .287 .253 .244 .298 .311
Landon Stephens .194 .284 .378 .183 .262 .356
Arden Pabst .176 .233 .294 .157 .208 .258
Jacob Pearson .188 .248 .281 .195 .261 .287
Joshua Fuentes .226 .267 .343 .218 .259 .301
Brandon Parker .200 .286 .324 .183 .265 .290
Beau Philip .184 .265 .289 .175 .245 .257
Javier Valdes .230 .328 .372 .228 .319 .359
Hendrik Clementina .202 .248 .312 .200 .241 .328
Geraldo Quintero .225 .296 .302 .234 .300 .323
Cal Conley .209 .262 .299 .227 .281 .311
Hudson Potts .183 .246 .325 .173 .218 .310
Bryson Worrell .159 .242 .256 .167 .246 .274
Bryson Horne .197 .234 .299 .209 .251 .310

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Spencer Strider R 25 15 6 3.28 30 28 161.7 122 59 19 49 234
Max Fried L 30 11 5 3.27 23 23 129.3 119 47 11 35 118
Charlie Morton R 40 12 8 4.09 27 27 149.7 134 68 19 64 166
Bryce Elder R 25 9 6 4.22 29 29 157.7 154 74 19 59 130
Allan Winans R 28 7 6 4.34 24 18 120.3 123 58 16 35 100
Ian Anderson R 26 8 7 4.44 24 24 121.7 116 60 16 54 114
Reynaldo López R 30 7 4 3.67 52 7 76.0 67 31 9 28 84
Raisel Iglesias R 34 6 3 3.09 57 0 55.3 47 19 7 13 70
AJ Smith-Shawver R 21 5 4 4.54 26 25 101.0 92 51 14 53 104
Luis De Avila L 23 8 7 4.75 25 25 115.7 120 61 15 53 92
Dylan Dodd L 26 7 7 4.67 22 20 104.0 112 54 15 33 78
Kolby Allard L 26 5 4 4.40 23 15 86.0 84 42 13 28 83
Darius Vines R 26 4 4 4.46 17 15 78.7 80 39 12 27 69
Huascar Ynoa R 26 5 4 4.35 16 14 70.3 66 34 9 29 71
A.J. Minter L 30 6 3 3.66 70 0 64.0 55 26 8 19 77
Hurston Waldrep R 22 1 1 4.45 19 19 64.7 60 32 9 34 68
Penn Murfee R 30 4 3 4.08 37 7 64.0 59 29 9 26 73
Nolan Kingham R 27 5 5 4.75 25 14 83.3 96 44 12 26 52
Matt Swarmer R 30 5 4 4.73 23 13 80.0 86 42 13 35 70
Dylan Lee L 29 4 2 3.38 44 0 48.0 44 18 6 11 52
Drew Parrish L 26 7 7 5.04 25 21 105.3 112 59 15 51 77
Yonny Chirinos R 30 5 5 4.78 22 12 92.3 100 49 14 29 59
Scott Blewett R 28 5 4 4.84 20 15 80.0 88 43 11 34 59
Zach Logue L 28 6 7 5.05 26 21 101.7 112 57 16 37 79
Collin McHugh R 37 3 2 4.19 40 3 58.0 59 27 8 20 55
Joe Jiménez R 29 3 1 3.61 56 0 52.3 44 21 8 17 68
Tyler Owens R 23 3 4 4.80 31 12 65.7 71 35 9 25 48
Pierce Johnson R 33 4 3 4.03 56 0 51.3 47 23 8 21 70
Aaron Bummer L 30 5 3 4.12 56 0 54.7 47 25 7 25 69
Nick Margevicius L 28 3 3 4.84 22 11 61.3 71 33 9 19 42
Patrick Halligan R 24 5 5 4.90 26 8 64.3 71 35 9 24 46
Daniel Martinez R 25 4 5 5.20 22 15 81.3 90 47 13 35 61
Jose Montilla R 26 2 3 4.70 28 6 59.3 67 31 8 17 34
Jackson Stephens R 30 3 2 4.44 30 4 50.7 52 25 7 18 45
Beau Burrows R 27 4 5 5.11 30 11 74.0 77 42 10 37 62
Domingo Gonzalez R 24 4 5 4.91 31 7 69.7 71 38 10 34 62
Jake McSteen L 28 3 2 4.82 31 5 61.7 70 33 10 19 45
Dereck Rodríguez R 32 4 4 5.04 26 9 69.7 77 39 11 28 54
Grant Holmes R 28 4 3 4.50 40 3 56.0 58 28 8 24 52
Justus Sheffield L 28 5 5 5.23 23 15 75.7 86 44 11 40 60
Brooks Wilson R 28 2 1 4.46 21 2 36.3 34 18 5 17 41
Hayden Harris L 25 5 4 4.19 38 0 53.7 49 25 7 23 59
Jesse Chavez R 40 2 1 4.50 39 2 42.0 43 21 7 16 44
Angel Perdomo L 30 3 3 4.12 42 0 43.7 34 20 6 25 62
Tyler Matzek L 33 2 1 4.20 49 0 45.0 40 21 6 24 47
Coleman Huntley III R 31 3 2 4.60 25 2 45.0 47 23 6 17 41
Ty Tice R 27 2 2 4.70 39 2 51.7 50 27 7 25 52
Lucas Luetge L 37 3 2 4.43 38 0 42.7 47 21 6 14 40
Hayden Deal L 29 2 3 5.18 26 8 57.3 64 33 8 25 39
Ben Bowden L 29 4 3 4.59 46 0 49.0 46 25 7 26 57
Tommy Doyle R 28 4 4 4.67 43 0 52.0 51 27 8 24 50
Seth Elledge R 28 3 3 4.65 41 0 50.3 51 26 7 22 47
Daysbel Hernández R 27 2 3 4.64 31 0 33.0 30 17 5 19 39
Roel Ramírez R 29 1 1 4.72 26 1 34.3 36 18 5 15 31
Brian Moran L 35 2 1 4.69 36 0 40.3 39 21 6 16 40
Danny Young L 30 1 1 4.67 32 0 34.7 34 18 5 18 38
Brad Hand L 34 4 3 4.82 52 0 46.7 45 25 7 21 44
Mike Morin R 33 1 0 5.20 26 1 27.7 28 16 4 12 23
Peyton Williams R 26 1 2 4.81 31 0 43.0 43 23 6 20 40
Alex Segal L 26 1 1 5.40 18 0 20.0 20 12 3 14 19
Miguel Pena R 25 3 3 5.23 30 0 41.3 43 24 6 21 36
Joe Harvey R 32 1 2 5.65 27 0 28.7 29 18 5 20 27
Jorge Juan R 25 2 3 5.77 27 1 39.0 37 25 6 32 40
Trey Riley R 26 2 3 5.62 36 0 41.7 43 26 6 30 35
Nick Howard R 31 1 1 6.26 22 0 23.0 26 16 4 19 17

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Spencer Strider 161.7 13.0 2.7 1.1 7.5% 35.7% .299 132 2.96 75 3.8
Max Fried 129.3 8.2 2.4 0.8 6.5% 21.9% .293 133 3.44 75 3.1
Charlie Morton 149.7 10.0 3.8 1.1 10.0% 25.9% .296 106 4.23 94 2.4
Bryce Elder 157.7 7.4 3.4 1.1 8.6% 19.0% .290 103 4.45 97 2.3
Allan Winans 120.3 7.5 2.6 1.2 6.7% 19.2% .298 100 4.39 100 1.6
Ian Anderson 121.7 8.4 4.0 1.2 10.1% 21.4% .292 98 4.45 102 1.5
Reynaldo López 76.0 9.9 3.3 1.1 8.7% 26.1% .294 119 3.77 84 1.4
Raisel Iglesias 55.3 11.4 2.1 1.1 5.8% 31.1% .301 141 3.13 71 1.2
AJ Smith-Shawver 101.0 9.3 4.7 1.2 11.7% 23.0% .289 96 4.69 104 1.2
Luis De Avila 115.7 7.2 4.1 1.2 10.3% 17.8% .299 92 4.91 109 1.1
Dylan Dodd 104.0 6.8 2.9 1.3 7.3% 17.2% .300 93 4.64 107 1.0
Kolby Allard 86.0 8.7 2.9 1.4 7.6% 22.6% .296 99 4.34 101 1.0
Darius Vines 78.7 7.9 3.1 1.4 7.9% 20.2% .297 98 4.55 103 1.0
Huascar Ynoa 70.3 9.1 3.7 1.2 9.5% 23.4% .297 100 4.26 100 0.9
A.J. Minter 64.0 10.8 2.7 1.1 7.2% 29.2% .297 119 3.46 84 0.9
Hurston Waldrep 64.7 9.5 4.7 1.3 11.7% 23.4% .295 98 4.63 102 0.8
Penn Murfee 64.0 10.3 3.7 1.3 9.4% 26.4% .303 107 4.21 94 0.8
Nolan Kingham 83.3 5.6 2.8 1.3 7.1% 14.1% .305 92 4.92 109 0.7
Matt Swarmer 80.0 7.9 3.9 1.5 9.8% 19.6% .308 92 4.97 109 0.7
Dylan Lee 48.0 9.8 2.1 1.1 5.6% 26.4% .299 129 3.40 78 0.7
Drew Parrish 105.3 6.6 4.4 1.3 10.8% 16.2% .296 86 5.24 116 0.7
Yonny Chirinos 92.3 5.8 2.8 1.4 7.2% 14.6% .290 91 5.02 110 0.7
Scott Blewett 80.0 6.6 3.8 1.2 9.4% 16.3% .306 90 4.96 111 0.6
Zach Logue 101.7 7.0 3.3 1.4 8.2% 17.6% .306 86 5.05 116 0.6
Collin McHugh 58.0 8.5 3.1 1.2 8.0% 22.0% .307 104 4.34 96 0.6
Joe Jiménez 52.3 11.7 2.9 1.4 7.8% 31.3% .295 120 3.85 83 0.5
Tyler Owens 65.7 6.6 3.4 1.2 8.6% 16.6% .301 91 4.90 110 0.5
Pierce Johnson 51.3 12.3 3.7 1.4 9.4% 31.3% .325 108 3.78 93 0.5
Aaron Bummer 54.7 11.4 4.1 1.2 10.5% 29.1% .303 106 3.99 95 0.4
Nick Margevicius 61.3 6.2 2.8 1.3 7.0% 15.4% .312 90 4.87 111 0.4
Patrick Halligan 64.3 6.4 3.4 1.3 8.3% 16.0% .304 89 4.90 113 0.4
Daniel Martinez 81.3 6.8 3.9 1.4 9.5% 16.5% .303 84 5.42 120 0.4
Jose Montilla 59.3 5.2 2.6 1.2 6.6% 13.1% .298 93 4.82 108 0.4
Jackson Stephens 50.7 8.0 3.2 1.2 8.2% 20.5% .304 98 4.58 102 0.4
Beau Burrows 74.0 7.5 4.5 1.2 11.1% 18.6% .302 85 5.00 117 0.3
Domingo Gonzalez 69.7 8.0 4.4 1.3 10.8% 19.7% .300 89 5.15 113 0.3
Jake McSteen 61.7 6.6 2.8 1.5 7.0% 16.5% .308 90 4.88 111 0.3
Dereck Rodríguez 69.7 7.0 3.6 1.4 9.0% 17.4% .306 86 5.09 116 0.3
Grant Holmes 56.0 8.4 3.9 1.3 9.6% 20.8% .309 97 4.70 103 0.3
Justus Sheffield 75.7 7.1 4.8 1.3 11.4% 17.0% .318 83 5.34 120 0.3
Brooks Wilson 36.3 10.2 4.2 1.2 10.4% 25.0% .305 98 4.27 102 0.3
Hayden Harris 53.7 9.9 3.9 1.2 9.7% 25.0% .298 104 4.26 96 0.3
Jesse Chavez 42.0 9.4 3.4 1.5 8.7% 24.0% .313 97 4.54 103 0.3
Angel Perdomo 43.7 12.8 5.2 1.2 13.0% 32.3% .295 106 4.26 95 0.2
Tyler Matzek 45.0 9.4 4.8 1.2 12.0% 23.5% .286 104 4.63 97 0.2
Coleman Huntley III 45.0 8.2 3.4 1.2 8.6% 20.7% .311 95 4.50 106 0.2
Ty Tice 51.7 9.1 4.4 1.2 10.7% 22.3% .303 93 4.69 108 0.2
Lucas Luetge 42.7 8.4 3.0 1.3 7.4% 21.1% .325 98 4.40 102 0.1
Hayden Deal 57.3 6.1 3.9 1.3 9.6% 15.0% .304 84 5.28 119 0.1
Ben Bowden 49.0 10.5 4.8 1.3 11.8% 25.9% .310 95 4.44 106 0.1
Tommy Doyle 52.0 8.7 4.2 1.4 10.3% 21.6% .297 93 4.72 107 0.1
Seth Elledge 50.3 8.4 3.9 1.3 9.7% 20.8% .306 94 4.69 107 0.1
Daysbel Hernández 33.0 10.6 5.2 1.4 12.8% 26.2% .301 94 4.77 107 0.0
Roel Ramírez 34.3 8.1 3.9 1.3 9.6% 19.9% .307 92 4.83 108 0.0
Brian Moran 40.3 8.9 3.6 1.3 9.1% 22.9% .297 93 4.84 108 0.0
Danny Young 34.7 9.9 4.7 1.3 11.5% 24.4% .312 93 4.93 107 0.0
Brad Hand 46.7 8.5 4.1 1.4 10.2% 21.5% .290 90 4.99 111 0.0
Mike Morin 27.7 7.5 3.9 1.3 9.8% 18.9% .293 84 4.99 120 0.0
Peyton Williams 43.0 8.4 4.2 1.3 10.4% 20.8% .301 90 4.88 111 -0.1
Alex Segal 20.0 8.6 6.3 1.4 14.7% 20.0% .298 81 5.71 124 -0.2
Miguel Pena 41.3 7.8 4.6 1.3 11.1% 18.9% .303 83 5.14 120 -0.2
Joe Harvey 28.7 8.5 6.3 1.6 14.9% 20.1% .296 77 5.94 130 -0.3
Jorge Juan 39.0 9.2 7.4 1.4 16.7% 20.8% .295 75 5.97 133 -0.3
Trey Riley 41.7 7.6 6.5 1.3 14.9% 17.4% .298 77 5.82 129 -0.4
Nick Howard 23.0 6.7 7.4 1.6 16.7% 14.9% .306 70 6.78 144 -0.4

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Spencer Strider Don Drysdale Dizzy Dean Erik Hanson
Max Fried Howie Pollet Watty Clark Bob Ojeda
Charlie Morton Virgil Trucks Early Wynn Jim Bibby
Bryce Elder Ted Lyons Mel Stottlemyre Scott Erickson
Allan Winans Ray Burris Brian Moehler Trevor Williams
Ian Anderson John Gant Jake Arrieta Thomas Arruda
Reynaldo López Russ Christopher Scott Proctor 프록터 Syl Johnson
Raisel Iglesias Jonathan Papelbon Alejandro Pena Kirby Yates
AJ Smith-Shawver Bill Macdonald Dave Wehrmeister Mike Norris
Luis De Avila Jim Shellenback Chris George Shawn Morimando
Dylan Dodd Ryan Feierabend 피어밴드 Matt Harrison Adam Morgan
Kolby Allard Mike McCormick Everett Teaford 티포드 Andrew Heaney
Darius Vines Jeff Bittiger Paul Rigdon Mule Watson
Huascar Ynoa Javier De La Hoya Harold Wood Dave Lemanczyk
A.J. Minter Taylor Rogers Tony Watson Willie Hernandez
Hurston Waldrep Fred Hutchinson Reynaldo Lopez Dennis Musgraves
Penn Murfee Vladimir Nunez Jeremy Fikac Chad Gaudin
Nolan Kingham Lindsey Caughel Anthony Swarzak 스와잭 Chad Jenkins
Matt Swarmer Luis Munoz Ray Semproch Shane Komine
Dylan Lee Fernando Abad Derek Lilliquist Gabe White
Drew Parrish Kyle Hart Chris Hernandez Chase Wright
Yonny Chirinos Adam Plutko 플럿코 Aaron Brooks 브룩스 Chad Bettis
Scott Blewett Omar Olivares Braden Shipley Leo Estrella
Zach Logue David Huff 허프 Dillon Peters Matt Crouse
Collin McHugh Ted Power Mike Ryba Dutch Leonard
Joe Jiménez Syl Johnson Joe Ausanio Scott Patterson
Tyler Owens David Busby Paul Imig Burris Warner
Pierce Johnson Rollie Fingers Steve Farr Scott Service
Aaron Bummer C.J. Wilson Joe Hesketh Dave Righetti
Nick Margevicius Steve Garrison T.J. Hendricks Aaron Cunningham
Patrick Halligan Steve Smith Steve Maye Steve Gagliano
Daniel Martinez Paul Clemens Ricardo Pinto 핀토 Carroll Sembera
Jose Montilla Mike Moat Zach Clark Mike Welch
Jackson Stephens Randall Delgado Lee Gardner Bob Duliba
Beau Burrows Nick Pasquale Brian Dupra Jordan Cooper
Domingo Gonzalez Julio DePaula 데폴라 Brandon League Mike Grzanich
Jake McSteen Jason Pierson Derrin Ebert Matt Dermody
Dereck Rodríguez Joe Oeschger Bo Schultz Scott Taylor
Grant Holmes Tim Sommer Marco Mainini Tyler Meigs
Justus Sheffield Donald Thompson Shane Hale Manny Olivera
Brooks Wilson Scott Wright Ed Palmquist Stan Jakubowski
Hayden Harris Eury De La Rosa Cliff Bartosh Tommy Palica
Jesse Chavez Buddy Carlyle 카라이어 Bob Wickman Joe Heving
Angel Perdomo Nick Hagadone Al Osuna Armando Almanza
Tyler Matzek Ryan Buchter Jesse Orosco Jeremy Affeldt
Coleman Huntley III John Hogg Steve Crawford Rob Stanifer
Ty Tice Jim York Branden Pinder Rocky Roquet
Lucas Luetge Buddy Groom Graeme Lloyd Sparky Lyle
Hayden Deal Robert Ramsay Enrique Lechuga Bert Cole
Ben Bowden Scott Maine Matt Smith Randy Williams
Tommy Doyle Jonah Bayliss Hal Kolstad Collin Balester 벨레스터
Seth Elledge Nick Mattioni Mike Roesler Jose Capellan카페얀
Daysbel Hernández Eddie Gaillard Johnny Humphries Fred Lasher
Roel Ramírez Tim Scott James Morrison Ricky Trlicek
Brian Moran Hideki Okajima Graeme Lloyd Rheal Cormier
Danny Young Matt Perisho Juan Alvarez Royce Ring
Brad Hand Jim Davis Morrie Martin Grant Jackson
Mike Morin Stew Cliburn Jake Mooty Johnny Kucab
Peyton Williams Matt Stites Todd Ozias Mike Natale
Alex Segal Gerald Wagner Gabby Rodriguez Thomas Gillman
Miguel Pena Austin Hinkle Jeff Gass Darell White
Joe Harvey Dave Jolly Lerrin LaGrow Freddy Schmidt
Jorge Juan Robert Bishop Eduardo Sierra Harvey Mattingly
Trey Riley James Thornton Gene Escat Mike Phelps
Nick Howard Leo Marentette Jerry Casale Francisco Rodriguez

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Spencer Strider .223 .289 .373 .186 .257 .317 5.3 2.5 2.55 4.00
Max Fried .226 .281 .339 .243 .296 .366 3.7 2.2 2.82 3.93
Charlie Morton .241 .343 .426 .228 .304 .360 3.5 1.1 3.35 4.95
Bryce Elder .266 .340 .453 .236 .306 .359 3.2 1.4 3.76 4.78
Allan Winans .279 .338 .451 .242 .302 .404 2.4 1.0 3.79 4.80
Ian Anderson .219 .302 .351 .270 .341 .459 2.2 0.5 3.99 5.21
Reynaldo López .230 .316 .396 .232 .287 .358 2.0 0.5 3.05 4.71
Raisel Iglesias .245 .288 .429 .205 .256 .330 1.9 0.5 2.21 4.38
AJ Smith-Shawver .241 .332 .412 .234 .333 .398 1.9 0.4 3.93 5.25
Luis De Avila .252 .353 .412 .266 .341 .434 1.7 0.4 4.31 5.27
Dylan Dodd .256 .307 .402 .274 .330 .458 1.6 0.4 4.15 5.29
Kolby Allard .240 .295 .396 .254 .314 .442 1.6 0.3 3.80 5.20
Darius Vines .253 .317 .418 .262 .318 .457 1.5 0.5 3.92 5.07
Huascar Ynoa .238 .326 .381 .247 .315 .411 1.4 0.4 3.76 5.05
A.J. Minter .213 .264 .288 .233 .296 .423 1.6 0.1 2.71 4.97
Hurston Waldrep .250 .352 .411 .230 .315 .397 1.2 0.2 3.91 5.29
Penn Murfee .243 .331 .405 .235 .309 .404 1.3 0.1 3.37 5.04
Nolan Kingham .293 .345 .465 .275 .330 .456 1.1 0.2 4.31 5.32
Matt Swarmer .267 .341 .459 .270 .340 .460 1.3 0.1 4.11 5.33
Dylan Lee .222 .258 .365 .246 .290 .410 1.1 0.2 2.63 4.31
Drew Parrish .264 .359 .376 .268 .347 .464 1.2 0.0 4.56 5.68
Yonny Chirinos .257 .319 .433 .281 .335 .467 1.2 0.1 4.27 5.41
Scott Blewett .283 .358 .472 .264 .333 .417 1.1 0.1 4.31 5.47
Zach Logue .252 .317 .396 .282 .351 .480 1.1 -0.2 4.53 5.79
Collin McHugh .255 .325 .436 .261 .321 .412 1.2 0.0 3.31 5.31
Joe Jiménez .225 .303 .416 .220 .289 .376 1.0 0.0 2.77 4.66
Tyler Owens .262 .333 .429 .277 .346 .460 0.9 0.1 4.29 5.46
Pierce Johnson .233 .317 .378 .241 .303 .444 1.1 -0.3 2.80 5.87
Aaron Bummer .203 .272 .324 .239 .344 .410 1.1 -0.3 3.10 5.55
Nick Margevicius .269 .326 .462 .291 .346 .471 0.8 0.0 4.33 5.49
Patrick Halligan .284 .364 .474 .266 .321 .434 0.8 0.0 4.40 5.49
Daniel Martinez .285 .370 .457 .266 .343 .469 0.7 -0.2 4.82 5.96
Jose Montilla .274 .328 .479 .285 .331 .415 0.7 0.1 4.18 5.19
Jackson Stephens .272 .346 .457 .250 .317 .407 0.7 -0.1 3.80 5.31
Beau Burrows .258 .351 .422 .265 .349 .440 0.8 -0.3 4.59 5.94
Domingo Gonzalez .261 .373 .462 .256 .339 .404 0.7 -0.2 4.46 5.54
Jake McSteen .231 .274 .359 .302 .356 .512 0.7 -0.1 4.23 5.54
Dereck Rodríguez .256 .336 .442 .289 .351 .480 0.9 -0.2 4.38 5.75
Grant Holmes .260 .339 .394 .263 .338 .466 0.7 -0.2 3.85 5.31
Justus Sheffield .242 .346 .374 .296 .381 .495 0.7 -0.2 4.72 5.91
Brooks Wilson .246 .342 .406 .236 .309 .417 0.6 -0.1 3.75 5.31
Hayden Harris .222 .310 .349 .243 .329 .417 0.7 -0.2 3.55 4.97
Jesse Chavez .256 .333 .423 .261 .320 .477 0.7 -0.3 3.30 6.50
Angel Perdomo .182 .308 .327 .222 .341 .398 0.8 -0.3 3.26 5.23
Tyler Matzek .208 .300 .358 .244 .345 .412 0.7 -0.3 3.43 5.34
Coleman Huntley III .256 .333 .442 .269 .337 .419 0.6 -0.2 3.90 5.48
Ty Tice .278 .375 .478 .225 .315 .360 0.6 -0.3 4.03 5.45
Lucas Luetge .246 .303 .377 .288 .355 .486 0.5 -0.3 3.63 5.82
Hayden Deal .274 .357 .438 .278 .358 .449 0.4 -0.3 4.71 5.89
Ben Bowden .273 .342 .409 .226 .331 .411 0.6 -0.5 3.75 5.70
Tommy Doyle .250 .342 .427 .252 .314 .430 0.5 -0.4 3.90 5.57
Seth Elledge .276 .354 .494 .243 .325 .369 0.5 -0.4 3.90 5.51
Daysbel Hernández .242 .365 .419 .231 .320 .415 0.4 -0.3 3.80 5.62
Roel Ramírez .262 .357 .443 .263 .329 .434 0.3 -0.3 4.15 5.72
Brian Moran .241 .349 .407 .252 .333 .437 0.4 -0.5 3.76 6.04
Danny Young .208 .321 .313 .273 .375 .489 0.3 -0.4 3.85 5.88
Brad Hand .218 .306 .309 .260 .354 .472 0.5 -0.5 3.86 6.11
Mike Morin .271 .375 .438 .246 .309 .443 0.2 -0.3 4.51 6.01
Peyton Williams .266 .363 .443 .244 .330 .411 0.2 -0.4 4.25 5.47
Alex Segal .250 .379 .417 .255 .373 .418 0.0 -0.4 4.87 6.31
Miguel Pena .276 .382 .474 .250 .330 .409 0.1 -0.5 4.70 5.98
Joe Harvey .255 .388 .455 .259 .362 .466 0.0 -0.6 4.91 7.05
Jorge Juan .250 .407 .458 .241 .371 .405 0.0 -0.7 5.03 6.62
Trey Riley .260 .387 .455 .261 .377 .420 -0.1 -0.8 5.02 6.49
Nick Howard .310 .453 .548 .255 .371 .431 -0.2 -0.6 5.41 7.14

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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scotth855member
2 months ago

my god.

MikeSmember
2 months ago
Reply to  scotth855

…it’s full of stars!

Pepper Martin
2 months ago
Reply to  scotth855

That Acuna projection seems like… a bit much. It’s not impossible, certainly, but it seems like a stretch to say that a player who put up an 11% K rate after never being below 23% before is going to repeat that. A whole lot of different things had to go right for Acuna to have the season he had last year, and it just seems way too easy for any one of them to revert and for him to be more good than great. I don’t know; Steamer projects 4 players for 6+ WAR next season – Acuna, Soto, Judge, Betts – and I feel like Acuna is the least likely of the 4 to hit that.

TimBrownUmember
2 months ago
Reply to  Pepper Martin

Not sure what exactly had to go right for him to put up that season… Acuna underperformed his xwOBA by a good bit (I think by even more than his spray chart would suggest he should, although I could be wrong). He also struggled to tap into his power until the end of the season when his launch angle seemed to improve. And ZiPS doesn’t project him to repeat his 11% K rate, it’s projecting a 16.6% K rate! If he repeats his 11% rate from 2023, the projection would be far higher.

Maybe Soto is more likely to put up 6+ WAR (although I disagree). But Mookie is 31 and Judge is both 32 and injury prone.

Last edited 2 months ago by TimBrownU
Pepper Martin
2 months ago
Reply to  TimBrownU

I’m not gonna deny that Judge is injury-prone, but it’s just true that over the last three years Judge has played in 411 games and Acuna has played in 360 games. Last year was only the second time in 6 seasons that Acuna managed to play as many as 120 games. There’s no reason to consider him any less injury prone than Judge.

Acuna has only one season of showing that he can be healthy and play like this. Over the last 3 years, the fWAR/600 PA’s for those four players is:

Judge: 7.6
Betts: 6.0
Acuna: 5.5
Soto: 4.9

Acuna’s 2023 season is a serious outlier in terms of his past production. That’s not the case for Soto (had a slight down year); Betts (best season since 2018, but not wildly out of line with past production); or Judge (typical production, with about 40 games missed due to poor outfield design in Los Angeles).

Acuna had his highest BABIP since his rookie year in 2018; cut his strikeouts in more than half from any other season of his career; and combined that led to a batting average 45 points higher than any season he’d ever previously had. Acuna is an extremely good player. But 2023 is the best season he will ever have, just like 2022 is the best season Judge will ever have. Projecting Acuna to have over 7 fWAR when his second-best season is 5.4 is… just silly.

TimBrownUmember
2 months ago
Reply to  Pepper Martin

He was on pace for nearly a 9 fWAR season in 2021 before he tore his ACL so last year didn’t come out of nowhere. Even if he regressed the second half of 2021, he still would’ve likely cleared 7 fWAR.

Yes his babip was higher than in previous seasons but once again, he underperformed his xwOBA even after accounting for his spray chart. His wRC+ wasn’t fluky and in fact, he likely got a little unlucky. And yes, his strikeout rate was cut in half, but ZiPS isn’t projecting him to repeat that strikeout rate! It would be just as naive to expect his K% to entirely revert back to ~24% as it would be to expect him to repeat the ~11%. That’s why projection systems have it somewhere in between, because that’s likely where it will fall.

As for Acuna vs Judge injury concerns, I think the raw games missed is a bit deceptive. Acuna has one major injury that he seems to have fully recovered from. Judge has had many, many injuries over the years. He is also six years older and 6’7, neither of which are conducive towards playing a full season (especially if he spends a lot of time in CF).

CousinNicky
2 months ago
Reply to  TimBrownU

The outlier is 2022, his return from injury season??? We start seeing the elite shining through his age 21 season in 2019 when he nearly dropped a 40-40 season. Then in 2020 and 2021 he is on pace for 8+ win seasons (above avg baserunning and defense with mid 150’s wRC+). He then injures his knee and returns the next season and is not 100% but still plays. He is still a 3-4 win player at this level. Then his next full season he plays up to his potential and improves on his biggest flaw K%, and somehow that’s the outlier?

This is just bad trolling qualifying everyone else but not Acuna

Anon21member
2 months ago
Reply to  Pepper Martin

But 2023 is the best season he will ever have

Not at all interested in qualifying that with “probably”?

Also, this is partly wrong and partly deceptive:

Last year was only the second time in 6 seasons that Acuna managed to play as many as 120 games. 

The part that’s wrong is that he’s exceeded that total four times in the past 6 seasons: 2023 (159 games), 2022 (125 games, including 6 on rehab assignment) 2019 (156 games) and 2018 (134 games, 23 of those in the minors). You don’t get to throw out 2018 if your point is about his health and availability. And the part that’s deceptive is that he played 46 games in 2020, the equivalent of 124 games in a 162-game schedule.

lacslyer
2 months ago
Reply to  Pepper Martin

The ignorance in this is the fact that he’s only 25 and we have literally one full season to compare it to that wasn’t in some way hindered by injury or shortened. 2019 is the only comparable season because of 2020 (for obvious reasons) and 21/22 he had and ACL tear and coming back from that it was obvious he wasn’t the same at the time.

Yes his K rate came down almost unbelievably last season to the point where it may be hard to sustain that rate, but we honestly don’t have much to compare it to fairly.

It’s just… hard to believe you’re making these argument for a 25 year old as though he’s at his peak and has no time to improve.

ag88
2 months ago
Reply to  Pepper Martin

You’re citing BABIP as if it trumps underperformance of xwOBA. Also, you’re acting as if the dude didn’t come back from a torn ACL in 2022. You are clearly biased in this discussion.

darren
2 months ago
Reply to  Pepper Martin

Why all the downvotes for this mild skepticism? The post seems pretty reasonable.

TKDCmember
2 months ago
Reply to  darren

Turning one single injury into a whole narrative about Acuña’s health is asinine. He’s a 25-year old athlete with one injury of any note. There’s no more reason to think Acuña will get hurt than pretty much anyone else.

Saying “he has only played 120 games twice in six years” is a hilariously silly cherry pick.

First, one of those six years was his rookie year, where Acuña, like almost any great prospect at the time, was kept down a few weeks for service time.

Then, another year was 2020. Guess how many players played 120 games in 2020? Go on, guess?

And then you have a single injury that cost him time over two seasons, including limiting him to 119 MLB games in 2022.

If the Braves hadn’t manipulated his ST, Covid never happened, and he tore his ACL a month earlier in 2021, he’d have played over 130 games in 5/6 seasons.

It’s weird how people choose to throw out these clearly ridiculous “stats” seemingly with the knowledge that we all have access to the internet to vet them and discover they are actually pretty stupid.

darren
2 months ago
Reply to  TKDC

I’m referring to Pepper Martin’s post (did I reply to the wrong one?):

That Acuna projection seems like… a bit much. It’s not impossible, certainly, but it seems like a stretch to say that a player who put up an 11% K rate after never being below 23% before is going to repeat that. A whole lot of different things had to go right for Acuna to have the season he had last year, and it just seems way too easy for any one of them to revert and for him to be more good than great. I don’t know; Steamer projects 4 players for 6+ WAR next season – Acuna, Soto, Judge, Betts – and I feel like Acuna is the least likely of the 4 to hit that.

It mentions a lot of reasons one might be skeptical of the projection. I can see people disagreeing but I always thought of downvotes as a way of indicating something a bit stronger than disagreement.

Anon21member
2 months ago
Reply to  darren

FWIW, I downvoted his followup where he lied about Acuña’s playing time, but not the first comment which is just reasonably skeptical of how high ZiPS is on Acuña’s future performance.

TimBrownUmember
2 months ago
Reply to  darren

But the projection doesn’t assume an 11% K rate, nor does it expect him to run a .338 BABIP again. So the projection already takes into account most of his critiques.

downbaddav
2 months ago
Reply to  TimBrownU

exactly

Azizalmember
2 months ago
Reply to  darren

I downvoted several (but not all) of his comments because he misrepresented the data in the post. Then did it again after having it pointed out directly.