Elegy for ’18 – Cincinnati Reds
(Photo: Keith Allison)
Four of five NL Central teams were playoff-relevant for at least part of the 2018 season. The exception? The Cincinnati Reds. Despite having begun the season with hopes of emerging from their rebuild, the team will end the year having improved by only a couple of games over their 68-95 record from 2017.
The Setup
Cincinnati’s last period of competitive baseball burnt out quickly, the team’s most recent peak ending after the 2013 season and three playoff appearances in four years. The Reds weren’t exactly overeager to start rebuilding, an August trade of Jonathan Broxton to the Brewers (during one of Broxton’s ever-narrowing periods of effectiveness) representing the only nod to the future in 2014.
The Reds continued to hint at a rebuild during the 2014-15 offseason, sending Mat Latos to the Marlins after a 2014 campaign truncated by a knee injury from which the team rushed Latos back — a move that appears to have been ill-advised given subsequent events. And in one of my favorite trades at the time — which looks even better now — the Reds traded 2014’s team leader in wins, Alfredo Simon, to a team that foolishly thought that was important, the Detroit Tigers, netting the organization Eugenio Suarez and Jonathon Crawford.
The rebuild continued in late 2015, Cincinnati dealing Marlon Byrd, Johnny Cueto, and Mike Leake. That said, the organization continued demonstrating a reluctance to trade veterans who were at or near the point of peak value. Todd Frazier, who recorded a .922 OPS in the first half and started at third base in an All-Star Game hosted at Great American Ballpark, was traded only after the conclusion of season, by which time his line had dropped to .255/.309/.498 amidst second-half struggles.
The Reds slowly shed some of the remaining pieces of the contending teams over 2016 and -17 while sorting through the second- or third-tier prospects who were acquired in various trades. While the team had some fortune with their low-cost pickups — such as with Adam Duvall, for example — there was a consistent struggle to develop even the core of a rotation that would compete in the future.
– Anthony DeSclafani showed a great deal of promise in 2015-16 and was one of the few pitchers who ought to have conclusively been part of any long-term rotation planning, but he missed 2017 with a partially torn UCL.
– Brandon Finnegan stayed in the rotation throughout an erratic 2016 season but missed most of 2017 due to injury. He wasn’t a terrible starter or anything in 2016, but he wore out quickly and his repertoire wasn’t deep enough to support a less-than-top-tier fastball.
– Amir Garrett turned heads after starting the 2017 season with 21 strikeouts and a 1.83 ERA in 19.2 innings over three starts, but 18 homers allowed over the next nine starts resulted in a demotion to Triple-A.
– Robert Stephenson’s command issues continued, even during his near-adequate stretches with the Reds, a disappointing outcome for a pitcher who had been on the Reds’ top-prospect lists for five years already.
There are other Reds prospects not included in that quartet. After two years of trying to graduate this set of starters, however, the Reds appeared no closer to forming their future rotation. Cincinnati’s offense was respectable in 2017, but there was little indication that the team could find the pitching to match in 2018.
There was one notable exception in Luis Castillo, picked up from the Marlins for Dan Straily, one of the trades in which the Reds actually did deal a veteran at the top of his value. In 15 starts for the Reds in 2017, Castillo put up a 3.12 ERA, with 98 strikeouts and an acceptable walk rate in 89.1 innings.
The Projection
The projections thought that the Reds might be able to find success with one or two of the rotation names from above, plus Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and Sal Romano. Not enough to actually be a good team or make the NL Central feel a little uncomfortable, but enough to claw their way into the mid- to high 70s in wins. ZiPS pegged the Reds at 74-88 in late March.
The Results
The Reds spent the first three weeks of the season doing their best to guarantee that fans would not hold false hopes about the 2018 outcome. While one could argue that Bryan Price had worn out his welcome as team manager by the end of 2016 or -17, the club’s 3-15 start is what finally resulted in his trip to the guillotine.
In was Jim Riggleman, a future inductee in the Hall of Being Helpfully Nearby When Another Manager Is Fired. The Reds played near .500 for a long time after Riggleman took over, leading to declarations in some circles that Riggleman should be made the permanent manager.
Dreams of some rotation breakouts turned out to be… uh… dreams. Luis Castillo occasionally looked like the pitcher of 2017, but at other times led one to wonder if the Reds had actually signed Luis Castillo the former second baseman and given him a comeback on the mound. Neither Mahle nor Romano looked anything greater than No. 4 or 5 starters. DeSclafani returned from oblique issues and had a solid run of starts in August, but now hasn’t had a quality start in more than a month. Brandon Finnegan’s finally been converted to relief, likely for good. Homer Bailey kept pitching thanks to the organization’s failure to understand that giving him innings (mostly) to justify his contract is essentially just throwing good money after bad.
On the plus side, Jose Peraza finally started hitting enough to establish himself as a league-average-ish starter at short. Eugenio Suarez flirted with a MVP candidacy for a while and Scooter Gennett showed his 2017 wasn’t a fluke, having recorded a .315/.363/.496 and nearly fives wins as I write this. Jesse Winker’s season ended early due to injury, but his .405 on-base percentage allows one to draw comparisons to Joey Votto, even if the team’s confused father-and-son broadcasting team doesn’t quite understand how that’s good.
What Comes Next?
The organization’s reluctance to trade older players is likely rooted in laudable intentions — namely, to retain a recognizable core who have a history with the team and who resonate with fans. Nevertheless, that reluctance has come back to bite the team over and over. And I’m not even talking about Joey Votto, a hitter who has actually earned his contract but has been publicly insistent that he’s not leaving Cincy, with the no-trade clause to back up that desire.
I’m also not even talking about older moves, like the sell-low trades of Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman. This pattern continued in 2018. Matt Harvey, picked up to flip at the deadline, turned out to never be flipped at all, reportedly because of ownership’s desire to retain him. Adam Duvall was traded after his collapse season rather than before, and the team made few significant inquiries into trading Billy Hamilton. Raisel Iglesias stayed put because there’s nothing more valuable for a last place team than a closer or something.
Cincinnati’s rebuild hasn’t been a disaster or anything, and there are plenty of big names to come. But you have to wonder if the organization has enough of that hard-hearted side that’s frequently necessary for a successful team. George Orwell once wrote that journalism is printing what someone else does not want printed and everything else is public relations. Putting together a great baseball team and good PR don’t always go hand-in-hand. Too often, the team chooses the PR side over the baseball one.
Way-Too-Early ZiPS Projections – Luis Castillo
I felt that, with an ERA near six in late June, Castillo possibly needed some time at Triple-A just to get some of the issues ironed out. That turned out not to be necessary, with Castillo putting up a 2.63 ERA with 80 strikeouts in 14 starts since July 1st. With the Reds still facing unresolved starting rotation questions, Castillo once again establishing himself as the now-and-future ace is a much welcomed result.
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 11 | 9 | 3.98 | 31 | 30 | 165.0 | 157 | 73 | 24 | 47 | 158 | 107 | 2.5 |
| 2020 | 11 | 9 | 3.99 | 30 | 30 | 162.3 | 155 | 72 | 23 | 45 | 156 | 106 | 2.4 |
| 2021 | 11 | 9 | 4.00 | 30 | 29 | 159.7 | 152 | 71 | 23 | 44 | 153 | 106 | 2.4 |
| 2022 | 10 | 8 | 4.00 | 27 | 27 | 146.3 | 139 | 65 | 21 | 40 | 140 | 106 | 2.2 |
| 2023 | 9 | 8 | 4.00 | 26 | 26 | 139.3 | 132 | 62 | 20 | 38 | 135 | 106 | 2.1 |
ZiPS doesn’t see an ace-like path as the most likely one for Castillo, but the Reds would still take these projections given their difficulties with the rotation.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
i do like their farm system, maybe one of the most underrated farms in baseball. again though, the top of their system is mostly hitters. they gotta get pitching if they ever want to get out of the basement of the NL central. i think it’s a shame too, their offense is actually really fun to watch sometimes
Hunter Greene is their #2 prospect. And their #5 is as well, though I admittedly have never heard of Tony Santillan before lol. Greene though, that’s where their hopes lie.
Eric and Kiley think Santillan’s a reliever and that he’s #9 in their system. Huge fastball, no third pitch, iffy command. With that rotation, having one guy above an FV45 (and who is in Class A) is not going to cut it.
“But you have to wonder if the organization has enough of that hard-hearted side that’s frequently necessary for a successful team. George Orwell once wrote that journalism is printing what someone else does not want printed and everything else is public relations. Putting together a great baseball team and good PR don’t always go hand-in-hand. Too often, the team chooses the PR side over the baseball one.”
Amen, brother Szymborski! Never heard that Orwell quote. Great one!
I also read that and thought “love that quote!” But if we can tangent into journalism, I do think it’s incomplete in a way that matters: journalism that digs up worthwhile stories that just weren’t much known.
Granted you could then say, probably there’s somebody who doesn’t care for the story because they benefit from the status quo of silence. But then the test covers everything. *I* don’t like it when papers publish some companies self-serving press release…
Okay, “that someone important doesn’t want published”, how about that.
This is spot-on. The Reds are completely allergic to dealing players when they’re actually wanted by other teams.
That said, I think that this team could have a really good lineup in the near future. The infield, in particular, looks ridiculously stacked–Suarez and Votto are two excellent hitters, even for their positions, Senzel looks like a beast, and India could move fast (I’m less convinced by Shed Long and Jeter Downs, but they are a real prospects too). And they still have Gennett. Not all of Trammell, Siri, and Winker are going to pan out, but they’ve got some decent outfield options. Barnhart looks solid.
But their pitcher development system is broken. Hunter Greene has all the talent in the world, but he’s not exactly dominating right now. I still believe in Castillo, thanks to Jeff Sullivan. I still think Mahle, DeSclafani, or Romano could be salvaged…but they are salvage jobs. It’s ugly.
So if I’m the Reds, I try to extend Gennett, figure out who to put in right field (Suarez? Senzel? Or maybe Senzel guts it out at shortsop and bumps Peraza to utility?), and trade Schebler and Hamilton (if anyone will take them) and some of their non-Senzel infield prospects for whatever pitching they can rustle up, and whatever level. The chances they do ANY of those things, much less all of them, seem low.
I’m higher on DeSclanfani. His peripherals other than HR/9 this year are right at his career norms. He’s a 3.80 ERA #3 type, which has value.
You can like DeSclanfani all you like, along with Mahle, Greene and Romano. All four of those guys could be 3 WAR starters and it’s still not enough even if Senzel, India, Trammel etc. all work out. They have no depth at all in the pitching area BUT as noted you can rustle that up with good scouting and trades.
Agreed. They’re very well set everywhere except CF, even before trying to fit Senzel in. Schebler was only their fifth-best regular this year, and he posted a wRC+ of 114, and Peraza and Barnhart did perfectly fine for high-defensive spectrum positions. They could use a frontline pitcher or three, but the Brewers and Braves are going to ride strong lineups with no true “ace” to the playoffs. A signing and breakout or two, and this could come together quick.
I think that between Siri, Trammel, and Friedl (and I see Fairchild listed as possible CF too) that they’ll be fine there, eventually.
They may just have to bite the bullet and sign their ace (relatively speaking) from the free agent market. They probably wouldn’t be able to afford a top tier option like Kershaw (if he opts out), but grabbing a second tier option to anchor their rotation and serve as a veteran leader for the younger pitchers would probably be a good move.
You have to wonder how much of Cincinnati ownership’s reluctance to embrace a full competitive rebuild cycle is due to Cleveland. Or more precisely, Columbus and its divided TV market. The two intrastate rivals both have fanbases in the market and the Reds might fear that with Cleveland still within a competitive window and with its AAA team based there, a rebuild might cost them a good portion of their Columbus eyeball revenue. A fear that, like a self-fulfilling prophecy, their own choices are enabling.
Folks griping about “tanking” teams ought to consider the Reds as exhibit A in the debate. At a time when player development and aging curves are better understood than ever, small- and mid-size market teams need to be clear eyed about the competitive cycle. Players will develop, peak, and (slowly) decline over time and to successfully compete, a team needs to synchronize their talent to build a competitive team. Piecemeal patch-n-pray rosters are no longer a viable strategy. The difference between 70 and 75 wins today is not worth sacrificing a chance at a 90-95 run for multiple years, three years down the road.
One thing modern business has taught us is that sometimes you need to lose money, to make a lot of money later. And a similar principle applies to MLB these days.
Teams need to assess their rosters and identify keepers, fillers, and trade chips every year. Hanging on to a thirty year old infielder on a good run won’t help you contend if your realistic window is three years away.
The Reds need to make hard choices before the players’ bodies make them for them.
They just need to look to the Orioles to see how bad it can get.
They have keepers and they have trade chips. They just need to figure out who’s who and act accordingly.
They aren’t as far off as others but the others are working off realistic blueprints.
The Reds…? Do they even have a plan?
“Piecemeal patch-n-pray rosters are no longer a viable strategy.”
Great line, but you, sir, have outed yourself as not being Brian Sabean!
and all the time I thought he was distancing himself from Sandy Alderson.
The Reds have 3 winning seasons this century. They don’t need to worry about young fans in the middle of the state becoming Indians fans, they already have.
“Raisel Iglesias stayed put because there’s nothing more valuable for a last place team than a closer or something.” lol, this might actually be my favorite line from the elegy series now
I sort of agree with this, but that’s more accurate for their refusal to deal him last year. After several years of giving up homers at a pretty good rate, he gave up a lot of long balls last year. While they should have definitely tried to deal him when he was dominating last year, I can see holding him for another year if you think his home-run rate doubling was a fluke.
His HR rate did increase, but his ERA decreased and surely that’s all a front office and fanbase would look at, right? lol
I don’t think he was going to draw a Hand type of deal regardless, but I don’t know – premium relievers aren’t cheap. What do you think he would have earned in a trade this year compared to last?
I think you’re probably looking at the Alex Colome deal as a comp–and FV45 and an FV40. Has the “proven closer” tag, lots of control. Perhaps they’d get more if they had waited until the deadline, but I suspect Denard Span drove down the return a bit too.
Last year, you’re probably looking at a return like the Sean Doolittle deal that the Nationals had. Assuming that Treinen and Madson were washes at the time due to performance and team control remaining, then you’re looking at two FV50s.
That’s a good line but not even my favorite in this piece. My choice is: “In came Jim Riggleman, a future inductee in the Hall of Being Helpfully Nearby When Another Manager is Fired.”
On the other hand, there’s an argument that having a good closer is one luxury that a losing team should have. You’re not going to have a lot of late leads, so you want to make sure that you lock down the ones you do get in order to keep your fan base at least somewhat happy during the rebuilding process.
I disagree. In that situation, you just start throwing out anyone with a decent heater and hope they start getting some saves so you can trade them again.
For those outside the Reds broadcast area, the father-son duo that Dan diplomatically chose not to name are Thom and Marty Brennaman and they are as reactionary a pair as you can find in baseball communications.
As a Reds fan, it’s hard to disagree with most of this. My one comment is that the Frazier deal worked out really well for the team, netting them Jose Peraza and Scott Schebler, who both have been really solid contributors.
Supposedly the Indians tried to get the Reds interested in Jose Ramirez for Frazier back in ’15. That would’ve worked out … quite a bit better for the Reds
https://www.cleveland.com/pluto/index.ssf/2015/12/cleveland_indians_have_terry_t_31.html
I remember thinking at the time that this was bizarre, especially the request for Cody Allen. But even Salazar was a weird one to be looking at since it seemed like the Reds should’ve been rebuilding and Salazar would’ve been a free agent by the time the Reds were good again.
Buying cheap bullpen help and selling it off for prospects is always a good idea, maybe a starting pitcher as well to be flipped. Also, who is next for the series? I enjoy reading this series because it does an in-depth look at why a team missed the playoffs.
Thanks once again for these Dan, they’re great.
A reluctance to trade veterans messes up rebuilding. I can relate to that.
No harm, no foul — but that’s a fugazi Orwell quote, by the by.
Oh no! That’s a real shame. It’s a good quote.
Dan, please be ruthlessly scathing when you get to the Giants! Please consider Boch and Sabes–and be cruel!!
Very good article. But I for one think Votto should play out his career in Cincy. He is not pujols after all
what do the analytics say about hiring a blood relative of an owner to be GM/pres bbops