Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 10/20/16

Eno Sarris: this is not a comment on any baseball player or team, I just like this song

Art Vandelay: Well, I lost my first shipment beer in the four years I’ve been trading. Unfortunately, it was a bottle of Ensorcelled I picked up for my brother-in-law! Even more strange is that fedex repacked all the other beers and sent them back to me!

Eno Sarris: That is super strange!

Buck Saltwater: Should the Jays offer a QO to Saunders?

Eno Sarris: Yes.

Not Ryan Merritt: World Series odds currently on Playoff Odds page:

Dodgers – 35.4%
Indians – 32.9%
Cubs – 31.7%

Even if the Indians are the underdogs to both the Dodgers and Cubs, shouldn’t they be a little closer to 50%?

Eno Sarris: Tons of questions on this. I don’t get it either, unless the Indians need to be ‘switched over’ to being IN the WS already or something.

Desmond : Going forward are you liking the deadline deal between the Giants and the rays better for who ?

Eno Sarris: I think they both got league average players on good deals. If Duffy can man short, then the Rays got the scarcer resource, but young left handed pitching is decently scarce and I believe in Moore’s talent.

Bork: So we found out yesterday Bork Jr is going to be a boy. Are there any ways to help ensure he will be a lefty? Borkwife is so we’re already at 50%.

Eno Sarris: Tie the right hand!

Eno Sarris: Don’t tie the right hand.

RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: Which of the teams that made it to the post season not make it next year and why?

Eno Sarris: The Jays have a tough road ahead since they’re losing three prime bats. The Rangers will be pretty different next year. Wild cards like the Orioles and Mets have to build just to stay where they are.

Bobby Blownilla: I play in a 5×5 roto dynasty league with 194 start limit. 10 teams with QS, K, ERA, WHIP, SVs. Aces command a premium price. Of Stras, Price, DeGrom and Verlander who would you shop for speed like Hamilton? Age is a big factor. I have DeSclafani, Iglesias, Harvey, Lance Lynn, Conley, ERod, and Glasnow to replace plus drafting. thanks!

Eno Sarris: Verlander I guess. I like him, but he’s oldest.

Erik: Last night “proved” that the Cubs actually can hit in the playoffs (not that it needed proving). But can they hit against Kershaw and Hill? With the way those two have been throwing, tonight’s game is something close to a must-win, right? Beating one of those two will be tough enough, but beating both seems nearly impossible.

Eno Sarris: At least they have a couple righty bats. And seeing Hill once helps you the next time, because he’s mostly a two-pitch guy. I think there will be a game seven.

Grof Mikeltag: Is Roberto Perez as good as Cleveland pitchers keep saying? And does it matter for next year and beyond, given all the not hitting he likes to do?

Eno Sarris: Should ensure he has a backup role for a while.

Nelson: LOL Andrew Miller attributing his performance on “the defence behind him” in a post game interview.

Eno Sarris: Well there was that nice double play

HappyFunBall: Hello Eno! Convince me that a team couldn’t run out a fireman type reliever for 180IP on a season, if they’re careful about not using him too many days in a row or warming him up and sitting him down. I know that’s impossibly high by current RP standards, but that’s basically a normal full workload for a starter.

Eno Sarris: I think we’ll see something closer to 100-120 soon? If you’re going to mess with bullpen standards, you have to do something to help the player get rewarded in arbitration, I think. Otherwise you get a reputation in the business, and players don’t want to play for you. Giving a pitcher 100+ out of the pen might lead to some more dosh in arb.

Erik: What happened to Jason Heyward to make him drop nearly 50 points in wRC+ as a 27-year old? From watching him during the playoffs, it doesn’t look like it was predominantly BABIP luck or anything. He looks every bit the part of a bad hitter.

Eno Sarris: I thought maybe a new hitting coach would help him, but I guess it really hurt. I really feel like someone could still unlock something there.

BK: Have you ever had an 11% sour?

Eno Sarris: Consecration from Russian River might be my favorite sour, and it’s 10%. Leaderboards say it’s not that uncommon: http://beergraphs.com/leaderboards/?q=&style=50&style=89&style=257&style=260&style=262&style=263&min_abv=10.0&max_abv=25.0&min_bar=-15.0&max_bar=19.0&popularity=all&region=all

CarlC: When did these locker room celebration become televised? Growing up I dont remember seeing Derek Jeter in Oakley ski goggles showering in beer 4 seperate times in a 3 week span October.

Eno Sarris: It’s also very weird to me because it’s against the law to take video or pictures in locker rooms. I’ve had this pointed out to me multiple times by public relations people for teams.

Hank: Moncada for Chris Sale, who says no?

Eno Sarris: White Sox would need a couple (lower-profile, possibly pitching) prospects, but if they blow it up, that might be a decent starting point.

2-D: Which position should Villar be playing next year?

Eno Sarris: third base.

Blaine: I seen the Braves are seeking a Catcher, would they send us Newcomb and Touki for Swihart?

Eno Sarris: Touki has a real nice spin rate on his curve and fastball, I think they’re happy to get him. something with Newcomb in it doesn’t seem impossible.

HappyFunBall: Bork Jr doesn’t have to BE a lefty in order to teach him to throw or hit left handed. Just start practicing early!

botchatheny :

Nientsniew: I literally read all your chats….still no idea what a lude is

Eno Sarris: Good interlude people.

Shifty: Please confirm the absurdity of this trade. 20-team dyanasty rosters, diamond-mind simulation league. Clayton Kershaw traded for Salvador Perez and Jason Grilli. There was a call for the trade to be vetoed, but it ultimately went through.

Eno Sarris: Oh man I don’t veto but I’d veto that.

Keith: Does Wieters for 3 years 33 mil sound like a good fit for the Braves? Georgia connection, and Markakis?

Eno Sarris: Not terrible if they like his health.

Guest: what’s with the consensus that gonzalez was safe? there’s a clear moment where his hand descends to touch the plate, and that moment comes after he took contreras’s glove to the face.

Eno Sarris: Player advocated for himself with a misleading picture afterwards I guess.

Mike: Visiting Orange County (Newport Beach Area) this weekend… Any breweries/beer types you’d recommend?

Eno Sarris: The Bruery in Placentia, Haven Gastropub for burgers and beers in Orange, Bottle Logic and Noble Beer works in Anaheim, Native Son in Santa Ana, Beachwood and El Segundo in El Segundo.

joedcamp: Will you be attending the SABR analytics conference in March? If so, a meet up?

Eno Sarris: I will try! I had a ton of fun on the panel last year with Dallas Braden and Aaron Boone.

v2micca: Which prospect this coming year has the greatest chance to cause a Kris Bryant style controversy when the team starts him in AAA in a blatant move to gain an extra year of control?

Eno Sarris: J.P. Crawford? There’s no other top 20 guy that either doesn’t have some service time or is super close.

Stevo: Do you see Arodys Vizcaino bouncing back?

Eno Sarris: Just always going to be injured.

Tommy Lasordid: Thoughts on Maeda starting tonight? Does it matter whether its Maeda/Kershaw or Kershaw/Maeda?

Eno Sarris: I think I’d give Kershaw more rest and start Maeda at home.

Eno Sarris: I do know that pitching Kershaw first would allow for Kershaw to possibly relieve in Game Seven, which is interesting. There has to have been a conversation with the pitcher about this that we aren’t privvy to.

HappyFunBall: So when you sign a FA reliever, you tell him “We’re paying you almost closer $$$ to pitch 120 IP anytime between 5 and 9 we think that you’re needed”… Arb only matters for guys you’ve grown yourself, and once there’s precedent arbwill take care of itself

Eno Sarris: Arb takes forever to change. They’re just now rewarding holds! If you start doing it some in the minor leagues, they’ll be used to it at least.

Wakawaka: So, I’ve been looking at some of the Pitch FX data from the AFL on MLBfarm, and trying to compare it to the Pitch FX data reported by Brooks and on the Baseball Prospectus Pitch FX leaderboards … and clearly there is some adjustment being made by Brooks and BP that is not being made by MLBfarm. For instance, some of the vertical movement averages for four-seamers on MLBfarm are in excess of 15″, which is about 3″ more than Chris Young’s four-seamer, according to Brooks and BP. Can you explain the discrepancy, here?

Eno Sarris: I know for one that Brooks uses a different starting point, but I also know they clean up the data more than anyone.

Monsignor Martinez: Do you think there’s a huge advantage to Merritt having NOT pitched much in the majors, by limiting the scouting report?

Eno Sarris: I think there’s always a novelty effect, yes.

Bork: Think Bautista takes the QO? It’s probably his last chance at getting a 3+ year contract this off-season but there’s no way he gets $17m/season.

Eno Sarris: I don’t think he takes the QO, but I do think it’s more likely he comes back than Edwin.

RaysFan#1: Archer to the Braves for Albies, Newcomb, and Allard? Would they do it?

Eno Sarris: I think they might. I think they’re looking for a deal like this.

Slew: If the projection system liked the Dodgers over the Cubs because of Kershaw/Hill, it doesn’t seem too outlandish to me that the Indians would be heavy dogs – It’s Kluber plus a bunch of schlubs starting.

Bend It Like Cameron: I might be moving to Richmond, VA for work. Any word on the beer scene there? Good places to check out (stores, bars, otherwise)? Thanks!

Eno Sarris: Don’t know enough about the place to do bars and stores, but Hardywood is great. Legend Brewing has some interesting pales.

Tommy Lasordid: Odds of Turner resigning with Dodgers? Jensen?

Eno Sarris: I think Jansen more than Turner, but I’m not sure. Friedman didn’t sign a ton of high profile free agents in Tampa, so all we have to go by is the small sample Dodgers work, which actually probably argues more for Turner, or for neither, and for some bargains in the middle of the market.

Matt: Cut two back-end keepers in dynasty: Domingo Santana, Kyle Tucker, JP Crawford

Eno Sarris: Tucker is easy, the next one is super hard. I like Santana, but you can probably get him back in the draft. Keep JP.

Don: Enooooo

Miketron: To Eno! King of the Ludes!

Wakawaka: Where would one find spin rates for Touki Touissaint’s curveball and fastball?

Eno Sarris: I was shown it by Braves Reddit, I think, and I believe they got it from Perfect Game or Baseball America …. unsure actually.

bonk: Would Yoshio Itoi be a better player next year than Angel Pagan?

Eno Sarris: He’s 34 and could maybe be more Aoki than Pagan, but he might also be super cheap.

2-D: How much money would it take for you to eat a sunflower seed off the ground of a MLB dugout?

Eno Sarris: I’m kind of gross so probably do it for a twenty.

5 Run Homer: I’m a nude, lewd lude dude

Boy Jorge Soler: As a Cubs fan I must say, Gonzalez was absolutely safe.

Mike: Eno Eno Eno can’t you see? Sometimes your articles just hypnotize me

Eno Sarris: barely got that one together.

Guest: i think i’d like to get into baseball, but it would be a serious career change and I’m old. should i bother?

Eno Sarris: If you can get an opportunity around baseball, like sports marketing, sports tech, apps, coaching, college, that sort of thing, and it pays okay, then that’ll get you that step closer that’s huge. Otherwise, it’s hard to get jobs when you’re older.

Not Ryan Merritt: Do you like that baserunners are being called out on reviews at second base when they lose contact with the base for a split second during their slide?

Eno Sarris: Not really. I wonder how many old school steals guys would lose if we did this sort of thing retroactively. It’s interesting because if they go past the bag, nobody really disputes they should be out, so you could just say, too bad. it’s in the rules.

Dock Ellis: Is baseball a great metaphor for life? The game is basic but there are several caveats for certain rules. It seems like it drags on forever but it’s over before you know it. And at the end, even if you become the best you can be, it’s still a crapshoot on how it will turn out.

Eno Sarris: Well done.

ALL CAPS: keep 5/cut 2: corey seager, willson contreras, addisson russell, kyle hendricks, jameson taillon, alex reyes, aaron sanchez

Eno Sarris: cut Taillon. Dangit. Russell I guess but I still love him.

State Senate Candidate Jane Kim: Favorite place for a beer in SF and Oakland? The Trappist Provisions?

Eno Sarris: Eh, I don’t skew Belgian. City Beer Store for me. Toronado’s close second. Fieldwork among breweries, Cellarmaker close second.

Tony: At this point after having video evidence of him pitching a full bullpen yesterday, I think its nearly impossible to have him pitch tonight. If they did pitch him and he was less effective than normal and Cubs win, the Dodgers would be in big trouble heading to Chicago.

Eno Sarris: Ah right forgot that one thing. So no option of pitching him.

Matt: Tonight’s game odds are 50.5-49.5 in LA’s favor — doesn’t that seem optimistic given Lester’s dominance, LA’s struggles against lefties, and Maeda’s struggles?

Eno Sarris: One year platoon splits are a little iffy on a player level, and you compound that iffiness on the team level. There are good righties.

Reginald Denton III: There were a couple of plays last night where Seager made diving stop on a grounder and threw the runner out at first. Buck and Smoltz were like “Great play by Seager!” every time. Were those really “great” plays? Yes, he dove, but the balls didn’t seem like they were particularly out of his reach, once he dove for them.

Eno Sarris: This is very much why the eye test fails us with regards to defense.

Dock Ellis: Should Vince Velasquez be a 120 inning reliever?

Eno Sarris: If his arm responds better to that sort of use. I bet there are types of arms that are better used in these different roles.

Guest: The Answer and The Veil are two newer great breweries in Richmond. Hardywood an old standby with solid choices and great barrel-aged stouts. Good scene.

Tommy Lasordid: Don’t see an obvious starting second baseman for LA next year and free agents look weak. Utley/Kedrick seem well past their prime. Kiki Hernandez? Micah Johnson? Is Brian Dozier getable? Ideas?

Eno Sarris: I think they’ll mix and match at either third or second, depending on whom they sign.

Mike: Hosmer… drafted him pretty high in a dynasty league- please tell me there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

Eno Sarris: This is who he is. Some years he has the good batting average.

Guest: If you’re the Cubs, do you splurge for a high-end RP this offseason? Even a good RP probably maxes out at 4-5 years, and it’s not until the 5 year mark that your youngsters start costing a ton.

Eno Sarris: Yes, but problem is that the Giants, Dodgers, and Cubs could all see relief as a number one priority.

A bloo bloo jays: I have depression

Eno Sarris: so sorry, man. But that Edwing homer in the wild card game was fun, they even won another series, it wasn’t a terrible year.

JJP: re: Beers in So Cal – Don’t miss Smog City in Torrance (freeway close). They’ve won a couple medals at GABF, including this year for Sabre Toothed Squirrel

Aaron: Soler and Hammell for Ender, who hangs up?

Eno Sarris: Given they have Mallex, not the Braves I don’t think.

Bork: Plot twist: That Guest asking about getting into baseball is really Johnny Manziel

Mo’: Who would be the best, realistic CF trade target for the Cards to go after this winter?

Eno Sarris: Ender. Dunno why Kiermaier is in so many rumors, but that might mean something.

Peter: As a Rays fan, there is NO WAY we are talking to Atlanta about Archer unless Swanson is part of the deal, period.

Dave Cameron: Which character from Super Smash Bros. would make the best baseball player?

Eno Sarris: Young Link swings a stick at least.

Mike: Yadier Alvarez or Alex Reyes, future value?

Eno Sarris: Reyes.

Miketron: Every party has a pooper, thats why we invited you, Enoooo Sarris!!!

BK: What do you order at a bar when you ask what’s on tap and it’s all depressing (coors, Budweiser, etc.)?

Eno Sarris: Water or Mexican Lager.

Dock Ellis: How well do sour beers age? I want to get a 2014 La Folie but not sure how it will taste.

Eno Sarris: Fine. They love the barrel.

Choo choo: Christmas Ales are hitting the selves. What is your favorite?

Eno Sarris: Don’t love love the style.

JHeb: Maybe its the location bias, but I went to Central Waters this weekend, and their barrel aged offerings are unreal. What are your thoughts?

Eno Sarris: I actually really like them, they do some interesting things with barrel aged barley wines, play with the body while having barrel character.

Steve Irwin: In today’s chat, we witness that rare specimen: the Rays fan.

Undecided: Teach him to throw with both Bork.

Sandy A: Is it ok to start Tebow over Geno for Week 7?

Bruce: Joey Bats to the Rangers. New BFF with Odor. You heard it here first

davels: Mike Marshall threw 208 innings in 1974. 106 games, zero starts.

Mo’: Winter Ales are the worst of all seasonal beers

Chris: Wisler, Blair, Jenkins, Whalen, Gant, and Mallex for Jose Quintana?

Eno Sarris: Seems like a flotsam and jetsam deal.

Dock Ellis: Do you do beer trades with chatters?

Eno Sarris: I have, and am about to send some Pliny out to twitter followers.

Guest: how old is “old”? if i want to get into baseball at 30 am i too old? 40?

Eno Sarris: I’m 37 and my age has actually been part of why I’m not sure I want to work in baseball.

Guest: la folie is pasteurized — it will change with age, but not like other sours. unpasteurized sours (as most of them are) will really evolve with time, and for the better!

Eno Sarris: oh I didn’t know there a lot of pasteurized sours!

Guest: How do the cubs fix the OF logjam next year? (Schwarber, Heyward, Almora, Soler)? Do you consider resigning Fowler?

Eno Sarris: Without Folwer, it’s not that much a jam if you put Contreras behind the plate. Almora pushes Heyward off center when Schwarbs comes out of a game with the lead?

BK: Eno what did you do before baseball?

Eno Sarris: Edited children’s books. Was the founding editor for Kumon Publishing in North America, so a ton of workbooks have my name on them.

Guest: can you name a team with depth comparable to this year’s cubs? it doesn’t feel like they have “backups” so much as a rotating cast of starting-caliber players.

Eno Sarris: Red Sox? Benintendi got hurt and they called up Moncada…

2-D: Isn’t the “Indians have no starters left after Kluber” being overblown at this point?

Eno Sarris: Well if Merritt is a dude… I don’t know. I like Bauer, but I know others thing he’s not great and his overall results so far have been below league average. Merrit’s stuff doesn’t look attractive, and Tomlin gets blasted every few starts because of soft stuff he throws into the zone.

Jonny: Could you see Coppy making a Wren-type move? Maybe acquiring Todd Fraizer from the White Sox and extending him, similar to the Dan Uggla scenario?

Eno Sarris: I do think he’ll do something looks like a win-now move this offseason. Moving into a new ballpark, had a good second half, have some pieces in place now.

Chris : Adonis Garcia, Jace Peterson, Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, Tyrell Jenkins, and Mallex Smith seems like a very fair deal for Chris Sale correct?

Eno Sarris: Hahaha

Guest: Reddick intentionally got himself a catchers interference last night. Maybe he read that article you guys ran on ellsbury?

Eno Sarris: He’s headier than people give him credit for, headier than I gave him credit for. He told me the first time I interviewed him that he wouldn’t consider changing his golf/uppercut swing because it’s worked for him so far, so I thought he wouldn’t have any more big adjustments in him. But then he made a big change to his swing heat maps the last two years.

Dann: Re the Cubs OF logjam, also consider the fact that Baez will be forcing Zobrist off 2B quite often, so here in Chicago there’s speculation that Schwarber – Heyward – Zobrist will be the typical starting OF, with Almora and Szczur as the primary bench. Soler is the piece to trade for relief pitching that’s too expensive for their current team.

Eno Sarris: Right I knew there was something I was forgetting. And there are some that think that Bryant might get a look in CF to put Baez at third…

Grizzly: What is a career in baseball like compare to other, well, more ‘ordinary’ career? Majoring in mathematics and statistics and this idea just flashed in my head.

Eno Sarris: Tons of fun because there are few that are more invested in their organization/company than those trying to help a team win. Nights toast for most of the year. Lots of travel, so family things get pushed off until you become more established and don’t have to travel as much. Cut your career earnings potential in half, probably, unless you were going to be an academic.

Guest: Soler’s not getting back anyone better than a middle reliever tbh.

Eno Sarris: I don’t think that’s true. Still great power, and some upside beyond what ended up being a decent season.

E: What are your favorite lower abv beers that aren’t so, I guess, bold. Basically, if youre going to drink 10 beers, what are you drinking?

Eno Sarris: Firestone Walker Easy Jack. or Pivo Pils.

JKD: Seems like the Nationals are really well set up to make a major trade this offseason, with a combination of solid dudes who are cheap but with limited control (Gonzalez, Espinosa), underachieving but high-ceiling tools dude (Taylor), salary dump/bounceback candidate (Zimmerman) and a huge number of live arms at or close to MLB-ready (Lopez, Giolito, Cole, Fedde, Voth), and a huge-ceiling mid-minors dude (Robles). Seems like there’s enough there to mix and match for pretty much any of the big-name-might-get-moved guys, no? And with the positional flexibility of Turner and Murphy, they aren’t really limited in who, exactly, to target.

Eno Sarris: Good point. They’ll make a trade. Might be a smaller one for a reliever though.

Eno Sarris: I’d be selling Arodys Vizcaino if I was the Braves, it looks like.

Kolten Wong: I’m a bust and at best a platoon 2B, aren’t I?

Eno Sarris: Five wins so far, I think that actually takes him out of bust territory by traditional definitions. Sometimes you’re not a star, and you’re just a useful utility piece with good defense at a few positions, a little patience, and a little pop.

Reginald Denton III: You’re “not sure” *now* you want to work in baseball or you were unsure back then?

Eno Sarris: Now, and I mean in in baseball, not what I do now.

Mike: Just graduated with a degree in sports management, having a hell of a time finding a job, prefer something at least close to baseball, any suggestions on where to look?

Eno Sarris: Minor league ball is fun but pays crap, could try some colleges, or agencies repping players.

Undecided: Is Andrew Miller the relief version of Randy Johnson?

Eno Sarris: Certainly looks the part! Well, not literally, like in the facial region.

Sandy A: Is crickett considered “close to baseball?”

Eno Sarris: I do know people who have even traveled to Australia to take a job in cricket that used to work in baseball. I would say yes. Similar sport, if you can prove your mettle..

Merv Throneberry: Rodon a Top 25 starter next year? And who do you like better at the same low price…Suarez or Kang?

Eno Sarris: Kang. Rodon top 40 at least. I like him, but the 25 gets crowded fast.

Mike: As a Braves fan, playoffs havent been that exciting recently to me. Usually football/hockey distracts me a bit, but theres something about this playoff that has been really awesome. Maybe its because its not the usual suspects, I dunno.

Eno Sarris: I think the different strategies we are seeing make it fun too. People are finally acting differently in ways that are obvious on a one-game level.

\m/: I always thought the saying was “if you can prove you’re metal.”

Eno Sarris: ROBOTOLYTICS

Undecided: Seager-Correa-Lindor: Who are you taking for rest of career?

Eno Sarris: Easy answer is Lindor because he’s liable to stay at the position longest. Correa has my heart for some reason, and he won’t let it go.

McClutch: McCutchen and Pirates’ top 3 prospects for Trout and Nolasco -0 who hangs up?

Eno Sarris: Pirates. They’d lose Cutch’s replacement in that deal, and they’re all about sustainability.

Jamie: Eno in that trade TROUT would be Cutch’s replacement!

Eno Sarris: LOL. Good point. Still doesn’t seem like the Bucs, and if their best prospects are pitching, pitching was the problem this year, not hitting.

Miketron: Eno gets a call with only heavy breathing on the other end. Who hangs up?

Eno Sarris: WHO IS THIS??? WHO IS THIS? PLEASE JUST TELL ME WHO IS THIS

Jack: If Bumgarner had never signed the extension, and therefore were a free agent this year, what kind of contract would he be likely to get?

Eno Sarris: Greinke deal?

Erik: Even though the Cubs should contend for several more years, this will be their best team in that span, right? They’re so close to a peak now that it’s hard to see them calling up/signing players faster than their current roster will get old/expensive/injured.

Eno Sarris: Definitely going to get expensive. They’re so young, though, that the ‘old’ in this case means closer to peak!

Eno Sarris: Aight guys! I need a nap. The two year old was a bear last night. Thanks for hanging out!