Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 12/21/17

8:07
Eno Sarris: …

12:01
Broseph: You pointed me toward Sam dyson in 2016, and James Paxton in 2017. Whose your 2018 difference maker who can be acquired cheaply now?

12:01
Eno Sarris: Yo I am here

12:03
Eno Sarris: I’ve been into Walker Buehrler (best curve by movement and velo, opportunity, going back to starting), Carlos Rodon (third best starter’s changeup by movement and velo last year), and I still like Treinen and Manaea as lower cost back end pitchers at their positions.

12:04
Art Vandelay: Gordon, Granite, and a couple lower Twins’ prospects for Archer. Do the Rays hang up?

12:05
Eno Sarris: probably not enough for a pitcher getting paid less than ten mill a year.

12:06
Desperate, confused Marlins fan: How are you drafting closers this year? seems like a huge dropoff after Jansen, Kimbrel and Chapman are gone.

12:09
Eno Sarris: Probably try to get a big strikeout guy near the top and then peace out until the end. Maybe Giles, though he makes me nervous, so how about Knebel, Diaz, Allen? Yeah it’s a tough thing.

12:10
Janus: I had a dream that Joey Gathright signed with the Marlins for 3 years/$24 mil. What does it all mean??

12:10
Eno Sarris: Gotta be about Lorenzo Cain somehow.

12:11
Juan: Can anyone join the launch angle revolution or is a certain base skill set necessary to have success?

12:12
Eno Sarris: I think you have to be able to average 88 or better at lower launch angles because when you move away from the lower angles, you move down the exit velo range. But yeah, Yonder was like an 88 mph guy and got a lot out of increasing his angle.

12:13
Erik: Winning 75-80 games games isn’t bad for one season, right? It’s just bad if you’re stuck there? With that in mind, is it really that weird for the Phillies to have signed Santana? It’s hard to jump from 66 to 90 wins without at least one season in the middle.

12:13
Eno Sarris: Better to be Phils than Giants, but yeah, 79-81 is okay. Standard deviation on team win projections is five wins, so a 75 win projected team could win 85 and sneak into the postseason. What do you think the Twins true talent win projection should have been last year? Not much better than 77.

12:14
Jay: It does not appear that projection models have quite caught up with, or know whether or not to trust some launch angle benefactors. What’s your outlook for Yonder Alonso in 2018 and beyond? Can he keep his adjustments working for him or is he something between pre-2017 and 2017?

12:14
Eno Sarris: In his worse second half, he still had a launch angle around 12 (better than before) and was 13% better than league average with the stick. If he’s just that, he’s worth the contract. If he can get it back to 20 again, he’ll be a value.

12:15
Willie Calhoun: What do you expect from me this year?

12:18
Eno Sarris: Good lord have you looked at his projections? .280 with 30 homers? I’ve seen him launch homers into the night… he’s good. He can play the OF badly for a while, and this team won’t take his job from him for bad D. should make more contact. Giddyap.

12:18
Q-Ball: How close are the Cardinals right now to the Cubs, in your opinion?

12:18
Eno Sarris: Projections say four wins. I think another big bat could really close the gap.

12:18
toki: Eno is my spirit animal

12:19
Eno Sarris: and you are mine

12:19
pakkap: So, can Kemp play first base? he’s dead average offensively for a corner OF and his….laconic….approach to defense present a negative value, but if the Dodgers can’t deal him and opt to not simply eat the contract, one would think giving him some positional flexibility would fit their model. I’d rather have a B/B+ OF in Bellinger and a C- 1b in Kemp than an A+ 1b in Bellinger and a D- OF in Kemp.

12:20
Eno Sarris: I have the feeling they release him and go with Toles/Bellinger if they can’t find a taker.

12:22
Kosch: Darvish to the Stros – The rotation goes Verlander, Darvish, Keuchel, McCullers/Peacock, Morton/McHugh with Giles, Devinski, Joe Smith, Hector Rondon, Will Harris and Michael Feliz as a long man…a man can dream!!!!

12:22
Eno Sarris: doesn’t seem crazy to me at all.

12:22
Matty P: the world ends when theres a Yan Yandy Yonder double play

12:22
toki:

12:22
PTBNL: Hey Eno happy holidays happy new year thanks for all the chats and tunes.

12:23
Eno Sarris: we can do better!

12:23
Jay: What are your expectations for Moncada this year? Thank he can cut down on the K rate?

12:24
Eno Sarris: A little bit but I can’t believe it’s any better than 28/29. Still a chance at Sano with speed, so he’s exciting still, but doubt he’s a top ten type guy.

12:25
Bruce: I really wish the Indians signed Logan Morrison over Yonder. How much more with Logan make?
Is it possible Hosmer and Morrison make the same AAV?

12:26
Eno Sarris: I think Logan will make more like what Yonder did, given his injury history. I think the Indians had a choice and chose Yonder for similar money.

12:26
Joe: If you HAD to drink a Christmas beer, which one would it be?

12:27
Eno Sarris: Up on October we’ve got a reference to Wicked Weed beer called Milk & Cookies which… I want that. Does it count? Hardywood Gingerbread Stout? Am I cheating?

12:27
Bruce: I know Manfred seems to be putting a lot of effort into the game times, but isnt the OAK, Tampa and Miami situations more critical to the health of the league? Would they rather 3-5 teams unable to draw 15000 and lose money every year over contraction?

12:29
Eno Sarris: Probably two different, equal sized problems? One’s about edging out other sports on the national level, TV, attention span, the other is about keeping every franchise healthy on the local level. I think the decision to take rev sharing from Oakland may spur a sale and maybe good times, but also ignores that the market on one side of the bay has less money than the market on the other, and the Oakland side is not what I would consider a huge market.

12:29
Jimmy Neutron: With the Rays plethora of SS…whats the outlook for Willy Adames?

12:31
Eno Sarris: I don’t know if they have a plethora of SS, more like a plethora of misfit second base third base types. It’s a crazy list from Wendle to Schimpf to Arroyo. I *think* Adames is the best defensive shortstop short of Adeiny, but that’s still hard to know for sure.

12:31
Ned Yost: What do you think about the Jhoulys Chacin signing for the Brewers?

12:32
Eno Sarris: He’s pretty good. And I have some hope that some changes in his sequencing and some tweaking for his breaking balls might unlock a little more. His breaking balls are very similar right now, and this is the team that figured out how to make Jimmy Nelson’s breaking balls different. Cheap deal, and the pitcher is probably pretty happy to get a two year deal.

12:32
Ben: Will the trade to San Francisco ultimately help or hurt Evan Longoria’s ultimate Hall of Fame chances? (Thinking both performance and perception-wise)

12:32
Eno Sarris: Would be a shame because he didn’t have a choice.

12:33
Hannah Hochevar: Does this promise all purple music? Purple Rain? Purple Haze? My Purple Past (Deerhoof)? Seems promising…

12:33
Eno Sarris:

12:33
Blex Bnthopoulos: I need a 3B. Reds need pitching. What does it take to get Senzel or Suarez? Who is cheaper to acquire?

12:34
Eno Sarris: Suarez easier. But… Braves have Riley coming and believe in him. Would have to be a cheaper deal.

12:34
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Why would Manfred lie about being unaware of the new Marlins ownership intending to slash costs? At least supporting the owners in a long-term rebuilding effort would make sense, even if be a bit unpopular. Now the entire state of Florida (wow, Rays fans hate Sternberg right now) has noticed that maybe the objective of the MLB and its owners is to make money, and that rooting for laundry might not be all it’s cracked up to be.

12:35
Eno Sarris: I think Miami fans were pretty comfortable with that idea after years of watching Loria.

12:36
Jimbo: Is Preston Tucker any good?

12:37
Eno Sarris: Lifts the ball in the minors but not in the majors. Weird. I think I’d want a share in deep leagues, and I can see why the Braves would take a shot.

12:37
PTBNL: Are you in agreement with Dave and Buster Olney that SFG would have been better off hanging onto the prospects and signing Frazier or Moustakas?

12:38
Eno Sarris: No. They got Longoria for zero tax dollars. If they signed Frazier or Moose, that would be their only move. Now they can make another move and solidify their WC2 projection and hope Cueto turns back into a second ace and helps fuel that run.

12:38
Bobby Evans: Rumors are flying.  Sabean dropping innuendos.   Who am I getting and please tell me it won’t be Ellsbury.

12:38
Eno Sarris: JJJJJJJJAaaaaayayyayayay BRUUUUUUUUUUUUCe

12:38
RK: Are any of these estimates out of line in your opinion?  Chen -$26mil of value. Kepler ~$50mil. Yelich ~$110mil.  If those are close, Twins would need to add ~$34mil in value to make it doable.  Who do you suppose that might be?  For Marlins: sheds Chen’s money and gets long term value though obviously less than if they traded Yelich by himself.  For Twins: another needed SP depth option fly ball skills would play well in front of that OF.  Yelich speaks for himself.

12:41
Eno Sarris: Everyone wants Yelich, huh? Nick Williams plus was the other trade idea. I guess these deals make sense. In the second half, Yelich had some better underlying plate discipline and could maybe fuel some better launch angles with that approach… there is something I trust about him more than Kepler, who doesn’t hit the ball very hard and just gets his homers by pulling it down the line, but I dunno. Couldn’t they just pay for some pitching and get a better pitcher?

12:42
v2micca: Okay, lets assume that in 2018 Swanson rebounds nicely, both Albies and Acuna break out, Freeman continues being Freeman, and at least one of their pitching prospects takes the next step at the MLB level.  What else needs to go right for the Braves in 2019 to make the post-season?

12:43
Eno Sarris: I think you got them to like 83 wins with all that. Probably need two pitchers to break out.

12:43
John Jaso Jingle Heimer Schmidt: Do you like the Giants’ acquisition of Longoria, or would you have targeted someone else?

12:43
Eno Sarris: They needed to bring on a third baseman or left fielder for no tax money so they could attack the other position with money. I doubt they had a lot of options.

12:44
Fangraph’s Lurker: Eno, the world needs to know….If there was a sandwich called the “Vlad Jr” what would be on it? more importantly, what would be on the “Vlad”?

12:46
Eno Sarris: Man this Vlad thing would have to be able to take you deep from your nipples to your knees. Have to spicy. Take my sriracha honey mustard and put it on a tri-tip on ciabatta with crispy fried onions and some lettuce for wetness. The Jr? Same but until he proves himself, roast beef is the middle.

12:46
Fellow Albies Lover: How much should I allow myself to overpay for Albies in a standard 16-teamer next year? Can potentially be kept for a slight upcharge after that

12:47
Eno Sarris: I’d want to slap myself in the face once i got past twenty bucks.

12:48
Charlie: Is a White Sox CF worth owning at all this year? Even in fairly deep leagues?

12:48
Eno Sarris: Man if they re-sign Hansen (they didn’t tender him), and he can play center, there’s something there. The rest of them can play center but strike out like 30% of the time and walk like 3% of the time. Engel is our starter, and woof on .200 with 25 steals.

12:49
Marp Catt-Tinder: Can you rank these 2018 rookie? Christian Walker
Derek Fisher
Dustin Fowler
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Tyler O’Neill

12:49
Eno Sarris: Dustin Fowler

12:49
Eno Sarris: Derek Fisher

12:49
Eno Sarris: Nobody else will play more than 100 PA.

12:49
berezin: early expectations (stats) for Amed Rosario in ’18 ?

12:49
Eno Sarris: I wrote a deep dive on this and found that the exit velos (pre injury) suggest he can be early Elvis Andrus. So, maybe .275 with 10 homers and 30 steals?

12:50
Mitch: I can’t stop listening to Purple Stuff

12:50
Eno Sarris:

12:50
Tumbler, Whiskey: STOP ALL YER DAMN YELLING

12:50
Eno Sarris: KELLY CLARKSON

12:50
Buff: With McCarthy and Kazmir gone, what does that do for Brock Stewart’s chances for making the rotation at some point this season? Do you like him?

12:52
Eno Sarris: I still really like the movement spin and velo on his pitches. Doesn’t seem like he’s lost wrt command. We’ve got him sixth on a roster featuring Hill, Ryu, Wood, Maeda… He’s going to start. I just wish he had more innings last year. May only get to 70-100 this year.

12:52
Dr. Funk: If you don’t eat chips whats your go to side with a samitch?

12:52
Eno Sarris: La Croix.

12:53
Buff: In a still crowded Dodgers outfield, what do you see for Andrew Toles this year?

12:54
Eno Sarris: I think he could refind a little patience and show a .285/.340/.475 type line that would be like 15% better than league average… Problem is he’s a lefty and so is Joc. Dodgers are probably going to make another move.

12:54
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Should the Braves go after Yelich and/or Archer? Would it be worth including Gohara in a package for either?

12:55
Eno Sarris: I think they more likely to try and get an under control starter by packaging a few prospect pitchers, but it’s a new regime. They may go into the season as is to see what’s up and then re-assess. Bit forced into win now move by all the penalties.

12:56
Frank the tank: Are you back on board with Darvish as an SP1 after seeing how the dodgers straightened him out and his WS struggles were attributable to tipping pitches?

12:56
Eno Sarris: Was never off board.

12:56
CubFan: With the number of possible suitors drying up for Hosmer and Moustakas where do they end up and what kind of contracts? Seems like teams are saying we wont pay what you’re asking. Any chance KC gets one of them?

12:58
Eno Sarris: Longer they out there the more the chance KC gets them. I think if I could get Hosmer for 5/100 (4/80 with option I’d rather) I might be in, actually. should be above average for another three years at least. It’s not like any free agency signing is really a great deal, you’re just trying to make a less than crappy deal.

12:58
Beni and the Betts: Last Jordan Montgomery’s 2017 season basically his realistic ceiling? Or can we expect improvement?

12:59
Eno Sarris: His changeup isn’t great. I wonder if he’d give up fewer homers if he was fastball/slider/curve. Has some similarities to Kershaw, but not the same deception and velocity. I guess yes, but I also think he can repeat/do about the same instead of pitching directly to his projection.

12:59
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Ever had fried spiced tofu on a sandwich?  Thinking of making something along the lines of said tofu, shredded red cabbage, some kind of fine sprout (like clover), and pickled ginger on a sesame seed bun.

1:00
Eno Sarris: I’m sure that would be good. I guess the sprout is crunchy, but if you can find something crunchy and dry / salty, like not bacon, to go on there, I think I’d do that.

1:01
Z: Do you think Nola will finish as a top 20 pitcher next year?

1:01
Eno Sarris: By WAR, he’s projected to be 13th by Steamer, so… yes.

1:01
Myrtle Beach Mike: Why haven’t I seen/heard any buzz about Stl inf Paul DeJong? He hit 38 hrs last year between AAA and MLB but I’m not seeing him on anybody’s top 300.

1:02
Eno Sarris: Bottom 1% plate discipline in the history of baseball. Wrote about it if you want to see the exact numbers but they are amazing. Means he has to be great at D and power, which maybe he can be, but any regression there would be very dangerous to his playing time.

1:02
Mike: NJ/NY beers to pick up to impress my friends ?

1:02
Eno Sarris: Any Other Half IPA, any Grimm Sour, Three’s IPAs.

1:03
Eno Sarris: Interboro Stay Gold is great, they good too.

1:03
Ike: Do front offices put any kind of quantitative value on players as it relates to, for lack of a better word, `marketability`? I love the trade valuations I read here at FG, but they don`t seem to account things like how a given player might help ticket sales, the general health of a team`s brand and other intangible – but financially important – stuff like that.

1:04
Eno Sarris: I think research has reliably shown that players don’t drive ticket sales, winning does. But, yeah, when people think about the Giants and want them to blow it up, I think they’re looking past the fact that the best way to do that is trade away two players that will probably go into the Hall of Fame wearing SF on their caps, two players that represent the SF brand, which, despite last year’s win loss total, is strong.

1:05
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Recently read one of your older articles on getting to know the clubhouse culture.  Is the differences from club to club in terms of mood, openness to conversation, openness to “outsiders” noticeable to the layman or more nuanced?

1:06
Eno Sarris: There is a difference between the clubhouse when it’s open to media and when it’s closed. I’m sure there are places where they love each other behind closed doors and hate the media when it opens. And I’d hate to put too much stock into my own personal opinion about how a clubhouse is gelling… and yet, I would also have to admit that I think I can get the sense of a clubhouse with a few visits in a year or two.

1:07
Josh Nelson: Should the Royals consider re-signing Moustakas and Hosmer if they are willing to sign for less than $50 million? Not getting draft pick comp if Moose and Hos don’t sign for more than $50 mil.

1:07
Eno Sarris: They’ll get more than 50.

1:07
Desperate, confused Marlins fan: RE: Yeah I drafted Allen as my big guy then pieced it together with Rivero and Nicasio later, so do the same?

1:07
Eno Sarris: yeah I like that a lot. Rivero sneaky elite, just a question of how many chances.

1:07
Adam: Do we know if any front offices have gotten into using Machine Learning or AI in their projections? Seems like the next big frontier in baseball projection to me.

1:08
Eno Sarris: They all using machine learning, pretty sure. AI… I don’t know personally, but I do know that they starting to use some AR to model situations.

1:08
Rufus T. Firefly: Does the new pitcher usage– more bullpen, fewer IP from the 4’s and 5’s– change you’re fantasy drafting?

1:09
Eno Sarris: I might pick up a swing reliever type in deeper leagues. Try to find the next Chad Green. 100 innings of good stuff, some wins.

1:09
Wes: How much emphasize do you place on drinking a specific beer out of the correct glass?

1:09
Eno Sarris: Not much. I have a Teku somewhere but mostly just pour into my pint glass.

1:09
Cena : why are the Yankees being linked so much to a starting pitcher? 1. Severino 2. Gray 3. Tanaka 4. CC 5. Montgomery

1:10
Eno Sarris: Teams need seven or eight starters with hefty innings, 10-12 starters to get through season, and also they could conceivably trade Montgomery for an upgrade to try and beef up the front of the rotation, I mean that team is ready to go right now.

1:10
Dave: So is it pronounced S-air-is or s-are-is? Gotta get this taken care of before I have another episode like Ben Rev-er-ee…

1:11
Eno Sarris: We go with Sairis. But we Greek. We might be betraying our roots.

1:11
Jimmy: Why did the launch angle revolution even happen? A more uppercut swing leads to more fly balls, and thus, more homers. Do we need advanced stats to understand this? What am I missing?

1:12
Eno Sarris: Before shifts, ground balls had slightly better outcomes. The emphasis was on line drives, but if you err, err low so you don’t pop-up. Pop ups are 99% outs. The shift murdered ground balls.

1:12
Sleepy: JOEY GATHRIGHT COULD JUMP OVER CARS

1:12
Sleepy:

1:12
Jim: I feel like i’m the only one that feels this way, but hasn’t Manfred been straight up awful as commissioner? Juiced balls, Marlins sale, Gurriel’s laughable punishment. He’s coasted on “thoughtful person not named Selig” for a while now.

1:12
Brandon’s Leather Belt: HOW CAN THE GIANTS TURN THEIR BACK ON PABLO??? HEARTBROKEN

1:13
tommy lasagna, sr.: i suddenly love jazz.  my wife says it just happens to men when they get old.  time to dye my grays.

1:13
Eno Sarris: Better.

1:13
E: Where do you stand on the Hopslam spectrum? Delicious? Overrated? I think it is great but too expensive.

1:14
Eno Sarris: Good fresh on tap, turns to syrup too quickly, not sure it should be so hard to get.

1:15
Eno Sarris:

1:15
ToMcN: When will zips be added to the player pages?

1:15
Eno Sarris: When all the teams come out.

1:16
Anthony: I know you cane away high on Chavis, but were there any pitchers that surprised you when you in the AFL?

1:16
Eno Sarris: I was actually surprised in a bad way by Mitch Keller. Curve looked good, nobody had a problem with it.

1:16
Dan Le Batard: Has anyone at Fangraphs considered writing an article mapping a road to success for the Marlins?  Is there a way for them to slash payroll and still build a competitive team from here?  Is there a way for both the fans and new ownership to come out happy with the new direction of the team?

1:17
Eno Sarris: They’ve built some good cores, could do so again, I guess. I thought this core was good though.

1:17
Friarfaithful117: How far back does the Longoria trade set the Giants long term?

1:18
Eno Sarris: They are in about the same situation. 2020, once Bum is gone, the pain starts. Or they get *really* lucky and Heliot Ramos is great, their #2 pick is also great and ready soon, and they rebuild on the fly like the Yankees.

1:18
Billy Beane: What are the odds Matt Chapman wins his first Gold Glove next year?

1:19
Eno Sarris: Very good. Spent some time talking to Nolan Arenado about Chapman’s glove and he was in awe. If Chapman can hit 25+ homers, he’ll get enough notice to win for his beautiful glove.

1:19
Gavin: Keep two of: Snell or Honeywell for three years, or Mazara for two years. Rounding out the back end of an offense-heavy keeper team in a pitcher-heavy points system (Correa, Josh Bell, Acuna, Bregman, Devers, Schoop, Stroman).

1:19
Eno Sarris: Mazara for sure. Pick your pitcher. I love Honey, but Snell already shown stuff in big leagues.

1:19
Anthony: Is a pitcher’s “feel” for a pitch binary (has it or doesn’t in any specific outing) or is it something that comes and goes between innings or plate appearances?

1:19
Eno Sarris: Different Day, Different Arm. Watch Luiz Gohara’s changeup.

1:20
Davy: Whom should the Nats sign as a backup 1B? It would be silly to expect Zimmerman to have another fully healthy year.

1:20
Eno Sarris: Didn’t they just sign Matt Adams?

1:20
Hannah Hochevar: Even acknowledging the Britton injury isn’t their fault, are the O’s sneaking up on the Marlins for “most upsetting off-season”?

1:21
Eno Sarris: Yeah they needed to pick a direction and seemed to have done nothing. Mets offseason shades of the same thing, but they should be trying to compete now.

1:21
Sweaty Jim: Angels look like they’ve made their moves to compete during Trouts window. What do you make of it? Compete for WC? Pitching still looks very frail.

1:21
Eno Sarris: Frail but high variance. There’s a universe where a couple of those guys are healthy all year and it’s a really good rotation!

1:22
Mike: What are factors that make you personally deviate your opinion from projections ?

1:23
Eno Sarris: Things that are not yet in projections: pitch movement change, pitching mix change, launch angle change, and sometimes, their history as a prospect.

1:23
Ricky Bobby: I don’t love the off-season talk of ‘super teams’ in baseball and the subsequent ‘if you aren’t first, you’re last!’ attitude.   We see new wildcard teams each year, and they sometimes do win the World Series. I am grateful MLB is not the NBA

1:23
Eno Sarris: That’s what I said on MLBNow about the Giants. We should celebrate the teams trying to get better in the middle.

1:24
Soxtober 2020: What sort of prospects could the Sox expect to get if they took Kemp off the Dodgers hands and paid a good chunk of his contract? Is that sort of financial flexibility worth a back end top 100 guy?

1:24
Eno Sarris: Arroyo went for Longo as much for the money in the deal as for the player. He was once 63rd but fell off the top 100. White Sox might be able to do a little better if they take all the money.

1:24
Billy Beane: Who hits more home runs this year, Matt Olson or Khris Davis?

1:25
Eno Sarris: I love Olson, but you have go with the metronome until he’s dethroned. Pace out his 2015 and he’s gone 38, 42, 43.

1:26
Mike: Which rotation do you prefer? NYY or BOS?

1:26
Eno Sarris: Boston.

1:26
Friarfaithful117: How good is Dinelson Lamet?

1:26
Eno Sarris: Great fastball, good slider, actually throws two or three breaking balls, never believes in his splitter, lack of command. He could be an ace or he could be a Michael Pineda.

1:26
Jkim: Kemp is not playing. Toles/Joc/Taylor/Puig/Verdugo already have the spot so they’re better off shipping him to an AL team and eat most of his salary

1:27
Eno Sarris: Yeah that’s how I see it too.

1:27
Billy Beane: Steamer has Matt Olson projected at 33 HRs. I take the over on that. What say you?

1:27
Eno Sarris: I will take over on that.

1:27
Luzinski’sSweatyGooch: Carson Cistulli=lady candy

1:27
Eno Sarris: …

1:27
Ryno: Thanks for chatting, Eno! The days of players getting really long contracts, especially well into their 30s, are probably long gone right? Where do you see baseball finances/contracts going in the next 10 years?

1:28
Eno Sarris: If they keep squeezing into ‘mega contracts for super stars’ and ‘short crappy contracts for everyone else’ I feel like the players union is going to start making noise about getting rid of an arbitration year or attacking that part of finances.

1:28
Billy Beane: Eno, talk to me about egg salad. I am a proponent, but I never hear you talk about it in your sando lineup. It’s hitting cleanup over here.

1:29
Eno Sarris: It’s a go-to when I’m at a deli and don’t have much time. I can’t do hot peppers, though, so I struggle with wanting to put something crunchy on it.

1:29
Todd: What will your strategy be in 2018 drafts in regards to stolen bases?

1:29
Eno Sarris: I will pay attention. I may buy a Billy Hamilton type, but I wont do what I did in the past, which was buy some sluggers who might steal a few and hope I can get some steals in the end game. I always end up short on steals.

1:30
tommy lasagna, sr.: the list of things i would do for $1000 is pretty long

1:30
Eno Sarris: some ludes deserve to be alone

1:31
natsfan: Is $4 Mallex Smith a strong value play in AL only considering SB scarcity and TB’s need for cheap, controllable players?

1:31
Eno Sarris: I guess so. In ALO, if he gets 300 backup plate appearances and steals 20+ bags, he’s probably worth a couple bucks, and you’re an injury away from more value.

1:32
Jake Floriolli: What will 162 games of Trea Turner look like? Over under .290 average and 60 SBs

1:32
Eno Sarris: Over and under.

1:32
Sneijer: Do you have any thoughts on Anthony Alford? He has looked great in the limited time that hes not injured. He is doing really well in winter league and its not like there is much in that TOR OF that could hold him back

1:33
Eno Sarris: I’m a bit of a low man on him. Told me once he preferred football baseball (!) and I just haven’t seen him tap that raw power.

1:33
Luzinski’sSweatyGooch: What are your thoughts on Willson Contreras’ D? Baseball Prospectus has him close to dead last in defensive rankings which shocked me….though to the naked eye his framing isn’t great and he gets crossed up at an unconscionable rate

1:34
Eno Sarris: Bad but could improve.

1:34
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: On second thought, what kind of bread is really friendly for Asian flavors?  Aside from wonton/wrap type stuff?

1:34
Eno Sarris: I’ve used sesame bagels and enjoyed them. I think certain flatbreads might mimic the wrap approach.

1:34
Ryno: Eno Eno bo beeno, quick fantasy question. 10 team 5×5, I can keep any of these three for three years at 3/6/9: Robbie Ray, Domingo Santana, or Ronald Acuna. What say you, good sir?

1:35
Eno Sarris: I see keep all of them. If you picking one… one of the OFs. Maybe Acuna! Riskiest, but biggest chance for value vs cost.

1:35
Gareth: What’s up with jacked Tim lincecum?

1:35
Eno Sarris: I think he could be a reliever if he’s got his fastball closer to 93 again. I don’t blame him for trying, and he’s been training all year.

1:36
Gareth: Man, I’m going to really miss Carlos Santana. He was so u serrated

1:36
Eno Sarris: I’ll choose to believe he was serrated, like a knife.

1:36
E: Are you anti christmas beer or anti all winter beers? Like the old ales, scottich ales, etc

1:37
Eno Sarris: I just don’t love beers that are super malty, sweet, and have a heavy alcohol burn. It works for me when it’s also super thick and roasty like a stout, but if it doesn’t have all that thickness, all I taste is alcohol and sugar. In related news, I’m not that into Tripels.

1:37
Stevil: Hey Eno, Feliz Natal! If you had to choose just one for the starting 1B gig in Seattle, would it be Healy or Ford? Thanks!

1:37
Eno Sarris: Healey.

1:37
DB: Eno! I’ve been playing fantasy casually for a while now and want to get more serious and play against better opponents . I live in a country where baseball isn’t so big so I don’t know any personally. Any ideas??

1:38
Eno Sarris: Ottoneu has a board for people to take over dead teams or join new leagues, give that a try?

1:38
Eno Sarris: ottoneu.fangraphs.com

1:39
tommy lasagna, sr.: at what age did we outgrow farting, saying doorknob or safety, and then punching someone in the arm?

1:39
Eno Sarris: wait we did

1:39
Anon: I’m reading conflicting things about teams’ available soending money to stay under the cap. How much do trams need to set aside for non-payroll things and how much can it fluctuate?

1:40
Eno Sarris: $14-16 million most years. You’ll also see different numbers for arbitration projection, so use MLBTR’s there.

1:40
Eno Sarris: Story time.

1:40
Eno Sarris: The last time I was truly a fan.

1:40
Eno Sarris: 2002 World Series.

1:41
Eno Sarris: I painted SF on a hard hat, and put a fake chainsaw with SF on it in my pants. It was big. I had to limp in.

1:41
Eno Sarris: Game 5.

1:41
Eno Sarris: Jason Schmidt had a great game. I kept yelling MOW EM DOWN SCHMIDDTY

1:42
Eno Sarris: And pressing the button for the chainsaw sound

1:42
Eno Sarris: Had a blast.

1:42
Eno Sarris: Didn’t care about the jumbo tron.

1:42
Eno Sarris: Ninth inning. Guy grabs a camera man and says “DO YOU SEE THIS GUY”

1:43
Eno Sarris: Camera wheels around and I can see I’m on the tron without looking around. So I saw my friend’s belly, hit my hat. I see Rob Nenn open the door. I go into profile in the night sky with the chainsaw.

1:43
Eno Sarris:

1:43
Eno Sarris: phone blows up with text messages seconds later

1:44
The Old Buccaneer: Longoria really doesn’t have much of a HoF case though, right? For most of his career he has been a really good player miscast as a great one.

1:45
Eno Sarris: 31st best third baseman of all time right now. I think he could make a LONGevity case if he ages well. Some of his value gonna come from D so if Beltre makes it, might help him.

1:45
Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Lot of us are mad, mostly at Loria but this whole thing stinks

1:45
Paccus: Which Christmas song is the best, and why is it DMX’s version of “Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer”?

1:46
Eno Sarris: it’s not Last Christmas by George Michael?

1:46
Gareth: NYY – 9% Sour Gose MARLINS – BUD ICE

1:47
Erik: Some fun comps from the player projections so far: Yelich = Yazstresmki 2.0, Nola = Halladay 2.0. Do those seem reasonable to you?

1:47
Eno Sarris: whoah I like those actually.

1:47
JP: couldn’t the Giants have signed Frazier or Moustakas and then used Arroyo or ideally the other prospects to clear Span’s salary for luxury tax purposes?

1:48
Eno Sarris: They know this answer, of course, and it’s possible that there was a better answer out there. But I don’t hate this deal they made for those reasons.

1:49
Matt: Eno!  Happy holidays to you!  ottoneu, FGPoints league.  Keep Thames at $19 and Marte at $20?

1:50
Eno Sarris: Oh points… man. I’m more likely to keep a borderline case like this if I was good last year. My teams were good, so I would keep these guys.

1:50
Marty: Is it likely Justin Bour gets moved? He’s 29, likely at his peak value, and super cheap. Boston should salivate at that prospect…

1:50
Eno Sarris: Less demand for first basemen. Some good cheap ones out there still.

1:51
BTinVT: Oh, Stratton ceiling? 2, 3 ?

1:51
Eno Sarris: You know, I like Stratton. I think he could be a three. Good spin on breaker and fastball, good fastball command, starts with good base therefore.

1:51
Magic 8 Ball: Dodgers: 3 years at $36M for Addison Reed. Sure would look pretty with Jensen and Cingrani at back end of the bullpen. Thoughts?

1:51
Eno Sarris: They have the money, and the need.

1:52
Jay: Do you see a similar uptick for Beede as Stratton through increased use of 4 seamer in Majors compared to Minors? It seems like Giants tend to emphasize 2 seam usage in minors more.

1:52
Eno Sarris: This is the story if he’s good. I’m just not sure how good he is.

1:52
juliooooo: Thoughts on Mikkeller? Just went to their bar in downtown LA and wow. Great spot

1:53
Eno Sarris: Yeah they good and they bring in good guest taps. But also expensive, at least up here in SF.

1:53
Eno Sarris: And the odd Mikkeller beer is horrid.

1:53
Gareth: Ryu Ken do it next year. He’s got a Blanca slate. I already Sagat about last year. He’ll turn up chun li for spring training looking dahl slim. He doesn’t throw hard but uses guile to get people out. He now Honda stands the game better. I could go on, but nah.

1:53
Dr. Funk: You strike me as a pamplemousse type of guy

1:53
Eno Sarris: Lime. But I’ll dig on some pample.

1:54
Biscuit: RE: Longoria/SF…it sounds like TB considers Arroyo a viable 3B starter. Based on the trade, it appears SF did not, or they could have plugged in Arroyo at 3B and just signed a different starter. Is this a difference of opinion on the prospect or just that TB is content to use Arroyo as a stop gap until their next contention window while SF was looking to contend right now?

1:55
Eno Sarris: Bit of both? I mean, Arroyo might make contact but not hit for power, I think that’s the consensus on him as prospect. Giants seem to be able to turn that type out pretty easily, maybe they just thought they could do it again.

1:55
Bride of Frank: Percent chance that Rockies swoop in and trade 2 younger SPs (Senzatela, Anderson, Freeland, Hoffman) + Story for Machado and let him play SS?

1:56
Eno Sarris: 1%. They need every arm theyv’e got to make it through one year.

1:56
Phan: What can we realistically expect from JP Crawford next season?

1:57
Eno Sarris: Realistically, like 10 homers and 10 stolen bases, a low batting average, a decent obp, nothing SLG, plus defense. I have hope for more, though. If he gets any SLG boost from ball…

1:57
tommy lasagna, sr.: two questions: 1)What are the minimum number of kids required to make it ok to buy a minivan?  2)If a dad buys said van, what is likelihood he gets fat and balds within a couple years?

1:57
Eno Sarris: My wife is set on getting one. We have two kids. I’m so scared. Hold me.

1:57
YKnotDisco?!: Do you have a guilty pleasure song? Maybe something that you’ve sang while in the shower that you’re not proud of?

1:57
Eno Sarris: Every Sublime song?

1:58
Bernie: Is Yolmer Sanchez a sneaky 10-10 candidate with the White Sox? Not that but the type of guy who can be useful in a deeper dynasty league.

1:58
Eno Sarris: Yeah you only really need one of two things to happen: play more or get a little better at stealing bases.

1:58
Not a veggie but….: If you press the tofu and give it a good rub, then shallow/deep fry you’re in businesS for the crispiness you want ?

1:58
Eno Sarris: yes this too

1:59
Bobopedia: who is the next Chad Green?

1:59
Eno Sarris: Okay I’m looking in bullpens for former starters on good teams:

1:59
Eno Sarris: Joe Musgrove

1:59
Eno Sarris: Adam Warren

1:59
Eno Sarris: Josh Hader (if not starting)

2:00
Eno Sarris: David Phelps?

2:00
Eno Sarris: Chance that one of Gsellman or Lugo ends up there.

2:01
Bob Pollards No HItter: Anything by Carton is a great NJ beer FWIW

2:01
Hopslam: Get Neshaminy Creek: The Shape of Hops to Come – for half the price

2:01
Davy: Props to the guy who has been asking questions under the username ‘Ned Yost’ for years now.

2:02
Wade boggs’ head: start wearin’ purple- gogol bordello??

2:02
Art Vandelay: just read the article about Tom Hackimer and had a thought. When players take biomechanical data for their own use, does the team have any right to that? Can it be a factor in contract negotiations? Seems like between that and the rise of statcast there could be a lot of wild negotiation tactics

2:02
Eno Sarris: It’s definitely an issue. I’d hate to have someone tell me they weren’t signing me because of some biometric thing they saw. Players have to think hard about this and get out in front of this.

2:03
John Wick: Brewers doing enough for your tastes this offseason?

2:03
Eno Sarris: I think they’ve got another move coming.

2:03
ThatsNotMyMonster: If you were Luhnow, would you trade Tucker for Yelich or Whitley for Archer?

2:04
Eno Sarris: No, he just bought himself a lot of goodwill to try and get the next win and extend the window without giving up prospects.

2:04
Jay: What if the MLBPA fought for an additional arbitration year so that they had one less year of pre-arb, basically sending every player into a Super 2, instead of getting to FA a year early (which seems something the owners would not agree to)

2:04
Eno Sarris: Yeah I don’t think I was being specific, just sort of saying they need to attack that process. I do like that idea.

2:04
Dynasty Doug: If junior guerra can win a spot in MIL, can he still be useful?

2:04
Eno Sarris: I think the radar gun will tell us. He lost a lot of gas.

2:05
Francis: What is it about Christmas beers that you don’t like?

2:05
Eno Sarris: Tastes like they all used one spice packet. Also, the spices.

2:05
Mike Stanton: Has anyone written about how a salary floor could be introduced, how it would work, and what the actual floor $ would be? Seems more relevant than ever given the Miami situation

2:05
Eno Sarris: Feel like Sawchick did recently.

2:05
I Used to Be Mel Clark: What are your thoughts on Shohei Ohtani now that he has been split into two separate players in Yahoo leagues? Rosterable in a 12-teamer as either?

2:06
Eno Sarris: As a pitcher for sure. Not giving him a roster spot as a hitter.

2:06
Steve: Any angels pitchers you’re excited about after Ohtani + Richards?

2:06
Eno Sarris: Heaney, Tropeano.

2:06
tommy lasagna, sr.: 923rd on list of things I would do for a grand: spend a day at work wearing a button up shirt with nipples cut out.

2:06
Josh: Rate scrambled eggs with avocado, red onion & melted Pepper Jack cheese, on an everything bagel on the scouting scale please

2:07
Eno Sarris: 65. Useful, always pretty good, doesn’t reach for the heights.

2:07
Dennis: The Angels need pitching. Should they spend big on Darvish or Arrieta, go after a real closer like Wade Davis, or a solid bullpen piece like Addison Reed? What do you see them doing?

2:08
Eno Sarris: They have money left? I feel like it’ll be a small piece, maybe someone they feel they can count on for innings.

2:08
DW: I can keep Neris at essentially minimum salary for the next three seasons.  What should my worry level be about the Phillies’ recent bullpen moves??  Also–chances Bear Claw closes this year.

2:09
Eno Sarris: Neris a bit risky but I wouldn’t worry much more because of the new guys. Bearclaw and Steckenrider gonna duke it out, might go 45/55 on that one, or 40/60

2:09
Baltimore Barry: What’s the love for Yelich all about?  Through age 25, his career numbers are virtually identical to Nick Markakis at the same point.  Good plate discipline, very good contact, power spike never came.

2:09
Eno Sarris: Better defense, hits the ball harder, some hope still for more power.

2:10
here goes nothing: you had text messages in 2002????

2:10
Eno Sarris: yes but you had to do it through those stupid numbers right

2:10
The Old Buccaneer: We stopped at two kids and one of the main factors was NOT having to get a minivan.

2:10
tommy lasagna, sr.: red hot chili peppers are an overrated band and the reason i can’t listen to the radio.  don’t @ me.

2:10
Sloop Juice Bomb: ALso NY/NJ beers: Equilibrium out of Middletown NY Sloop(AWESOME) out of Elizaville NY  Grimm is a can’t miss too

2:11
E: Don’t be embarrassed by the minivan. It is the best tool for the job, your life will be easier. You can trade it in in a few years when you no longer have to pack like you’re going on vacation every time you leave the house

2:11
Not Paul Sporer: thoughts on sour beers?  I live near Russian River so I have to think I’m in god’s good graces that I can drink Consecration and Supplication daily

2:11
Eno Sarris: love them

2:11
Uncle Rico: longest chat ever?

2:12
Eno Sarris: yeah… I should go!

2:12
Eno Sarris: this was fun!

2:12
Eno Sarris: see you guys in the new year!

2:12
Eno Sarris: happy new year everyone!

2:12
Eno Sarris: toodles





With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

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Da Bum
6 years ago

Eno took the under on Trea Turner getting 60 SBs given 162 games. This season he had 46 in 98 games. That prorates to 76 in 162 games. Furthermore, Eno took the over on hitting .290. Turner was on pace for 76 while hitting .284. Taking the under on 60 SBs given 162 games and hitting better than .290 seems like a very bad bet.

White Jar
6 years ago
Reply to  Da Bum

If only it were that simple.

Da Bum
6 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

Fair enough but he’s 24, why would you expect his SB to be affected by age? He’s got timed speed a tick below Hamilton with good timing on jumps and unlike Hamilton, he gets on base. The better reason he may not, given a full season, is Dusty gave him a green light at all times and he’s gone.

I’d be surprised if he didn’t hit above .290. I wasn’t debating that point. I mentioned it to point out he was on pace to blow past 60 last year and you think he’ll have more opportunities due to an increased BA so it’s odd to say no on the SBs.

I’m hoping he gets a full season and keeps the green light. He’s a superstar if he gets a full season.

John Autin
6 years ago
Reply to  Da Bum

If you had bet on every guy in the last 11 years who had a year of at least 40 SB and 60 SB per 162 games to REPEAT that performance, you would have lost big.