Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 12/3/15

Eno Sarris: Good morning. First time on this thing. Be here shortly!

Eno Sarris:

bad parent: wanted to name my kid eno… made a typo and now we’re stuck with an emo kid

Eno Sarris: I have a friend who let his three year old name his new brother. His brother Elmo raps and skates now, which probably happened because of his name.

Hooha: What is your Christmas beer of choice?

Eno Sarris: Goose Island Juliette or Halia. Love the sour sisters.

RotoLando: GIF Check!

RotoLando:

Eno Sarris: hmmm

eno-opo-lis:

Eno Sarris: well that one ‘worked’

Lawrence: Thoughts on the Fowler to the Mets rumor? Dexter Fowler is like Curtis Granderson but with a little less pop and a little more speed. Is he adequate defensively in CF?

Eno Sarris: got yelled at for saying he improved their defense, but I think (I am not sure) that he can still be a center fielder so what I mean is that he can improve their offense without killing their defense, which Yoenis in center sorta did.

Yonder Alonso: Do I have any untapped power left for Mark Kotsay to find?

Eno Sarris: 112 wRC+ against righties, career. Average 1B in AL gets 110. I suspect Billy just wants an average 1B 2/3 of the time and doesn’t care about what happens with the power.

Mr. Duff: He Eno. Love your articles. Follow you religiously! With the Astros not tendering Chris Carter, how do you see their corner infield shaping up? AJ Reed and Matt Duffy?

Eno Sarris: Weird that they traded Lowrie and released Carter.. maybe they see Preston Tucker as able to play first. He’s probably a better than average fourth OF right now. Valbuena starts at third against righties. Marwin Gonzalez super utility, including starts at third and first against lefties, probably.

zach: is there anything to this luxury cap collusion rumor? me thinks not

Eno Sarris: The wording is a little weird, but he’s an older gentleman.

Derek H: Garin Cecchini. Anything chance he ever figures it out?

Eno Sarris: Dude is hyper. HYPER. And I’ve got a three year old so I know hyper. But yeah, there’s something there but he might be a tweener in terms of position and bat.

Kim: What would happen in Germany if there were a San Bernadino, or Sandy Hook, or Aurora, or

Eno Sarris: We could look to Sweden, I’m not even sure what happened after their tragedy at that summer camp. I’d guess there would be a focus on mental health services, since guns are already illegal.

Jake: The Mets have been quiet as always thus far. If they don’t make a splash now, is it safe to assume they’re just not interested in capitalizing on their SP window?

Eno Sarris: They could look to trade with the team that loses out on the free agent starting pitchers, but no, I doubt they trade a starter. They’ll work around the edges and try to land one decent Granderson type FA, and then do an in-season trade if they are in first again, is my guess.

Alice: In a keeper league, would you rather have Heyward or Polanco moving forward? Who hits for more power at their peak?

Eno Sarris: OBP league, I’ll take Heyward without thinking about it. I like Polanco’s walk rate, but he doesn’t have the same discipline and may never hit those peaks in OBP. As for power, it doesn’t look like Polanco has to do much to get to Heyward’s level, and he steals more bases. The thing is, he’s only two years younger and Heyward is enough of a bird in the hand that I take him. As much as I like Polanco.

Matt: I’ve thrown this around for a couple responses, but Puig for Carassco, who say no? The Dodgers then go bananas and sign Heyward instead of Grienke because he will provide more value for cost.

Eno Sarris: I think it’s a possibility. But if they sign Greinke, they don’t need to do it. And they seem to be the frontrunner. Guys like Puig don’t get traded a ton.

Art Vandelay: Re: Bonds to Miami – I read an article a year or two ago (I can’t remember where) about how when someone is so over-the-top extremely skilled at something, they don’t make the best teachers, because they often take for granted doing all the basic little things right. I guess what I’m saying, is that I’m trying to temper the feelings I get when I think about Bonds coaching Giancarlo, Yelich, Ozuna (maybe), and even Dee Gordon.

Eno Sarris: This is true. Michael Jordan is not a good coach. Kobe Bryant laughed when someone asked if he would be a good coach. But Bonds has helped some Giants, so I think he actually has a way to put together his thoughts in a helpful way.

Eno Sarris: Bonds is a bit like A-Rod. Kent aside, players liked him for the most part.

jocephus: cards tendered contract to b moss. do you think he can be 12-13 moss again?

Eno Sarris: Health on that hip is the reason you can see some bounce-back. Like he said in our interview this year, he wasn’t able to lift like he likes to until June or so.

zach: the marlins non-tender henderson alvarez because…..?

Eno Sarris: They’ve been the best acquainted with his medicals.

John: If it’s true the Cards offered Price 7/190, find it odd they’re not really interested in Greinke. Thoughts?

Eno Sarris: Yes, that is odd. Perhaps it has something to do with their belief in the likelihood of injury or how the two will age, but they seem very comparable. Maybe they wanted a lefty in particular?

Archie: How do you like Erasmo Ramirez for 2016?

Eno Sarris: Even with the trade, there is a bit of a log-jam there once Alex Cobb is back. Blake Snell is on the way, too. If they stay healthy, Erasmo does some have some risk of falling out of the rotation. But I do think he can have a high-threes ERA and a better K rate than the one he’s projected for (6.9/9).

Archie: Who has the higher ceiling between Austin Meadows & Manuel Margot? Higher floor?

Eno Sarris: I’ll give Meadows higher ceiling because I think that approach and body can lead to better power than Margot. But Margot might have higher floor if Meadows has to move off center and can’t hit for the power we project him into.

Owen S.: Been a Fgraphs reader for a long time and have always preferred FIP WAR to RA WAR. Recently, however, I’ve been starting to question myself. While I still believe that FIP WAR is usually better at illustrating a pitcher’s true talent level, and is thus more predictive than RA WAR, I am starting to wonder why we don’t primarily use something more descriptive. After all, we use descriptive stats like wOBA and wRC+ for hitters, when instead we could create a more predictive version that normalizes things like LD% and BABIP, factors somewhat out of a hitter’s control. So why the double standard? Also, WAR is supposed to be an account of what happened, no? Not an account of what should have happened.

Eno Sarris: I agree, so I often sort by RA9 WAR for award discussions, at least initially. But! The thing about pitching is that ‘what actually happened’ includes wondering ‘who should get credit for what actually happened.’ it’s not as much about ‘normalizing’ for predictive use when talking about the past for pitchers, it’s about making sure we give the pitchers the right credit for doing what they do. Which is super hard, and I don’t believe anyone has figured it out all the way.

Eno Sarris:

DJ : “X number of years is a terrible investment because the backend of the deal will be a disaster”

Eno Sarris: It’s just default analysis that people break out on every single long deal. We know! It’s the price of business. Teams try to get as much surplus value on the front end to pay for the extra years and money at the back end that it takes to sign the pitcher.

Mike: What’s your perspective on Shelby Miller? I feel like I’ve read everything from innings eater past performance to pending breakout ace.

Eno Sarris: I thought he could do what he did last year if he just threw more high fastballs, ditched the change, and threw more cutters. So he did all that and was better. I think he can mid-threes with a league average strikeout rate. That velocity should help him suppress HR/9 according to research, so I’ll take the under on his projected HR/9.

Guest: How did you adjust from moving from the East Coast to West Coast? I moved from Boston to San Diego…it feels weird.

Eno Sarris: It’s strange waking up and getting to work and like 2/3 of the country is post lunch. But I do like watching baseball at 10 and 4.

Hack Wilson: First time otto leaguer. Keep a $13 Ryu and/or $8 Wood with a staff of Archer, Lester, Thor, Salazar, Wacha? Plenty of cap space.

Eno Sarris: At least Wood is healthy and has a useable projection. Ryu just started long-tossing, that one you’ll have to wait as long as possible to get more news on his shoulder.

Tom: Would Joe Kelly be an immediately dominant relief pitcher?

Eno Sarris: The problem is that he has no command of his only okay secondary pitches, so he’d still be predictable and all about that gas. But he’d be a lot better than he’s been as a starter, yes.

Bob Loblaw: Do anyone *need* Heyward as much as the Cardinals? They cannot hope to repeat in MLB’s best division w/ an outfield of two decent sophomores and an aging Holliday.

Eno Sarris: I suspect this is where the Price money will go now.

Hooha: How do the Nationals rebound after last year’s calamity?

Eno Sarris: Still a good lineup for the most part, with some interesting young players now ready to perhaps help more than their projections (Taylor and Turner). Still a really good rotation with Joe Ross coming now. Those deals they made for youth are going to help them now.

Hooha: Loving Islay region Scotches (Lagavulin, Laphraig, etc). Is there any other scotches or whiskeys that you would recommend giving a try?

Eno Sarris: Caol Isla is the only Islay that I’ve had that beats those two.

JV: Are you at all nervous about Huston Street heading into this season?

Eno Sarris: Always. Major health risk.

Matt: Know of any homebrewing major leaguers? Or beer geeks?

Eno Sarris: Corey Knebel on the Brewers home brews! Sean Doolittle loves Bay Area craft beer. Adam Lind says he loves beer but not really IPAs.

Snarfle: I think the tragedy you are referring to was in Norway, but either way, I doubt they’ve had anything similar since then.

Eno Sarris: Apologies. Did not sleep much last night.

Jason Heyward: Is there any chance at all that I play for the Mets?

Eno Sarris: Doubt it but a boy can dream.

Jack: What type of return can the A’s expect for Lawrie?

Eno Sarris: Depends on what the other team thinks of public defensive numbers. He’s an average guy on offense, with a little hope for power growth in different park or just because he’s still only 25. If he can be average (and he looked a lot better at second base to my eye) with glove, he could be a two-to-three win player under team control. Should get something interesting back, if not a team’s top prospect.

Pete: Should the Padres be interested in Alvarez or maybe Carter? I know, I know…Myers is moving to first probably (maybe keep him in LF until Renfroe is ready and then CF (eek)). But I would love to add legit 30 HR power to their infield. Does Alvarez or Carter make any sense, or am I fooling myself?

Eno Sarris: Pirates fans tell me there’s no hope for Alvarez with the glove, but obviously the Padres think differently about defense than many teams. I think he does make some sense for them.

Nelson: Do you like Aaron Alther as a deep league sleeper? Maybe .250 15/15?

Eno Sarris: He’s projected into that sort of work, but I’m nervous about a righty guy with a fringe bat. Could end up on wrong end of platoon.

Jake: Do you think we start to see salaries for mid to upper level guys in organizations (scouting directors, coaches, baseball ops head) explode in the next five years? There’s more than a lot of research suggesting low salaries for these guys are the lowest hanging competitive edge fruit.

Eno Sarris: I’ve had a front office person tell me this is the best place to invest, so I agree that it’s a possible place to make a difference in the development process. But ‘explode’ is a strong term for a group of people that don’t make a ton of money.

Anonymous: One time I got stoned and thought about how it would be funny if there was a bad player who was the opposite kind of fish from Mike Trout and later I realized it is Mike Carp.

Bork: David Price will opt out in 3 years and join Alex Anthopolus and the Montreal Expos.

Snarfle: Here’s what going to the mall is like. Arrival: Okay, I’m going to get one of those big packs of socks and that thing for the kitchen. 0:10: Hey look at all these places we could get lunch! I suddenly have the desire for a large, flavored coffee drink! 0:33: You know, I could use another somewhat nice shirt. 1:12: Lunch. 1:44: My legs feel weary, so maybe–wait that store has a slinky in its front window. 2:15: Where am I? Did we lose someone? Why did we come here? 2:47: Capi…capit…capitalism! That’s the word! Wait, why I was saying that? Does America still have word sentences?

Eno Sarris: It took a while but we finally interluded.

Mr. Duff: From a fantasy perspective, would you rather have Preston Tucker or Jose De Leon for the next 2 years?

Eno Sarris: de leon, for ceiling.

dom: good hop along song! Bonds won’t be able to teach his number 1 talent, being able to pick up the pitch super early/recognizing. No hitting coach can teach this, I really think these coaches have little influence. At least compared to pitching coaches

Eno Sarris: Yeah I’ve seen research and agree with it: mostly hitting coaches can very slightly affect your ability to be patient or aggressive.

Nate: What are the attributes you tend to focus on the most when evaluating which batters/pitchers are in line for improvement?

Eno Sarris: Up the middle approach with decent plate discipline and good minor league numbers for hitters. I mostly look for standout pitches and strikeout rates in young pitchers, but I also like to see a recent change in pitching mix for a breakout.

Bork: Who’s house has the higher ceiling? Puig or Cespedes?

Eno Sarris: Puig, because of age!

PS: who is a good pro comp for Gary Sanchez?

Eno Sarris: I think Eric Longenhagen put a Javy Lopez comp on him and I liked it.

Eddie Brock: How often do you use conditioner?

Eno Sarris: e’ery day

Aaron: Hi Eno! Today you tweeted about how you think DHing is a skill. Could you elaborate on that?

Eno Sarris: There’s a 10% DH/PH penalty that’s assumed for all hitters — it’s harder to hit off the bench than if you’re in the game. But I’m not sure that the lifetime DHs that we know of would be 10% better in the field. I think they ended up DHIng full time because they didn’t have that penalty, they had the ability to stay focused and into the game or somehow stay warm and ready as if they were on the field. So I think there is a Lenny Harris David Ortiz skill. Not sure Adam LaRoche has it.

Dave: Any thoughts on Julio Urias’s potential contributions in 2016? I have him in a keep 5 league, but but I can only keep him twice max, so I don’t know if I’d ever really get any value there (still better than Gallo I guess, who is my next option).

Eno Sarris: I think he’s actually polished and ready, from talking to some of the Dodgers writers, there was a thought they might see some of him late last year. So I think we’ll see 50+ innings from him next year maybe.

Santa: What does little Eno want for Christmas?

Eno Sarris: a sleep in

Eno Sarris:

Eddie Brock: How surprised are you the that Mets tendered Jenrry?

Eno Sarris: Cheap, could still be useful, baseball pretty much just goes on.

Jake: I like people who complain about backloaded deals because I get to explain NPV, and feel like my econ degreewas worth the paper it’s printed on

Walt: The idea of Shelby Miller for Soler had to make you giggle a little

Larry Bernandez: late night baseball is way better. I miss the Eastern time

Eno Sarris: shorter lude

Dave: How about a post about your favorite beer from each state? Any Ohio favorites?

Eno Sarris: I did do a series of the ‘best’ beers from each state, dunno if I’ve had one from each state to do my own list. I love Fat Heads’ Headhunter, and I think Mystic Mama from Jackie O’s is from there, and then Great Lakes has a couple good beers, are they Ohio?

Paid the Cost to be the Hosmer: O’s fan here. Wondering if I should be happy about Trumbo or is more like the title of Desmond Dekker’s Nincompoop?

Eno Sarris:

Eno Sarris: Alvarez was free and left-handed. But the Orioles didn’t spend much, and at least Trumbo has a 101 wRC+ against righties, career. He might not have to platoon.

Merv Throneberry: It’s July 2016 and the fresh arms are arriving. Please rank: Giolito, Snell, Berrios, Urias…

Eno Sarris: Giolito Urias Berrios Snell if they all coming up

PieTraynee: Could you see the Pirates springing for any of the second tier free agent pitchers this offseason or is the market going to be too prohibitive? Do they match well with anyone for a trade?

Eno Sarris: I do think they’ll sign a second tier guy because right now, Glasnow is their five and Taillon is their six and Taillon will have only pitched in instructional ball.

Dave: Do you have a favorite beer label? I oddly like Maine Brewing’s simplicity.

Eno Sarris: I do like it, but Trillium does classy with a little more beauty I think.

Snarfle: Let’s say you are at a game, and between innings, you notice that the A’s are not taking the field, and then you notice there is an actual tiger prowling around the outfield. No one knows what to do and the game is delayed for a while, until eventually the tiger is tranquilized and taken away, and the game continues. Now here’s the weird part: you see know media on this whatever. No tweets, no footage, nothing. You interview Yonder Alonso after the game who talks about not coming out immediaetly for the 5th inning because he couldn’t get his glove on. What do you do?

Eno Sarris: Test my drink for psychedelics.

marc: Come on Eno, give us what we all came for. What are your next 1-3 year projections for Caminero? Future Chapman-like closer for the Pirates?

Nelson: The d-back bullpen has Ziegler, Hudson, Delgado, etc. Is the closer job Zeiglers and his 83mph fastballs to start the season?

Eno Sarris: Yeah, the Pirates probably trying to trade for SP depth with Melancon, since they’ve been peddling him. That bring Caminero to the doorstep. I believe in him.

Eno Sarris: I’ll give Hudson the best chance of taking it from Ziegler though.