Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 3/23/16

March 23, 2017

1:53	Eno Sarris: wish I could have been in Charlotte for the Run the Jewels show drinking Stay Gold NEIPA…

12:00

Bork: Will this be the year Dalton Pompey sticks in the MLB? Please?

12:00

Eno Sarris: There’s a whole wide left field waiting for him

12:01

C3P0hhhh: What do you think of jSullivan’s comparison of Bird to a young Lucas Duda? Would you tend to agree, or do you think his past injury history might be suppressing his ceiling a bit?

12:01

Eno Sarris: It’s not a bad comp, but you also have to think of Lucas Duda as he was in 2015 not 2016.

12:01

Jewel: Which injured pitcher would you rather have, Alex Reyes or Matt Harvey? Real life baseball, contracts don’t matter.

12:01

Eno Sarris: Reyes.

12:01

Eno Sarris: Younger. One injury vs two.

12:01

Maxamuz: Oh have you not heard?

12:02

ROBOCOP: A buddy and I like to compare beers to our favorite baseball players…the better the beer, the better the player. You should try Solemn Oath’s FunSponge… it’s a solid Altuve.

12:02

Eno Sarris: Trout’s gotta be Pliny, especially since compared to some of the newest hot beers, it’s a bit boring.

12:03

Merv T: Daniel Norris – looking good this spring. Who else could be a last minute SP sleeper?

12:03

Eno Sarris: Wacha, Finnegan, Folty, Berrios (yes, still), Karns, Miller.

12:03

Dusty Baker doesn’t play fantasy: Does this Glover thing change your view of Treinen at all?

12:04

Eno Sarris: I mean sure, but I have no idea what’s going on there. Usually you use your closer in the spring in the fifth, before the veterans leave.

12:04

Sim: Cotton has had some control issues this spring. Are you worried?

12:05

Eno Sarris: I’m always worried when I like a guy more than consensus. He’s said he’s working on his curve, though, and he’s never had problems like this in the past.

12:05

Big Tuna: Apparently Andrew Toles will start in the OF for the Dodgers. Who is he and should we care for fantasy purposes?

12:06

Eno Sarris: Makeup issues cost him development time and cut him from any prospect consideration, and he’s probably a platoon guy, but he has more power than the projections say.

12:06

Eno Sarris: You should care in most daily leagues beyond 15 teams and 5 bench.

12:06

Tom: Which prospective closer would you rather own: Hector Neris or Adam Ottavino?

12:07

Eno Sarris: Talked to my man Thomas Harding at length about this and he said Holland is sitting 93 with okay command. I guess if he’s healthy he’s their guy. Gomez is pretty blah, but if the Phils are no good, do they need to go to Neris? I take Neris, though. Really good pitcher behind a meh one.

12:07

Big Tuna: I’m in a 12 team, standard 5×5 league with 3 RP spots. I’m thinking about a strategy of taking two top 10-15 closers and then filling the final 3rd RP spot with a high innings non-closer to help with ratios? Do you think that’s a solid strategy and, if so, which non-closers should I target?

12:09

Eno Sarris: Might as well take a guy like Neris that could close, since there are a lot of guys like him (Kelley, Treinen, Lorenzen, Knebel, Bearclaw, Nate Jones)

12:09

Wrinkles The Dog: I like the Tigers this year…go figure.

12:09

Eno Sarris: Just no depth there. If they get lucky on health, they can bang with anyone.

12:09

CarrotJuice: Eno, what do I do if I lose my health coverage? I’m likely uninsurable due to pre existing conditions.

12:10

Eno Sarris: This new plan is DOA, hold tight a little longer.

12:10

klof: Who is more valuable in 2017, Conforto or Almora?

12:10

Eno Sarris: Real life? Could be Almora on D and PT. Give em both 600? Conforto, easy.

12:10

Guest: If I own Ramos, do you think I also need to grab Ziegler?

12:10

Eno Sarris: Bearclaw.

12:10

Anon: Thoughts on majoring in economics to pursue a career in baseball ops?

12:10

Eno Sarris: Computer science?

12:11

Eno Sarris: I tried to send a bunch of Stanford biz school kids a data dump and ask them a question I couldn’t do, and I had to simplify and make the question easier.

12:11

klof: Does Conforto have to overcome both Bruce and Granderson to get regular PT? Even if Bruce proves to be bad, Grandy moves to RF, and Lagares in CF and Conforto is still blocked. How does this shake out?

12:12

Eno Sarris: Trade/release? Conforto may be down in Triple-A for two months, but I doubt for all six.

12:12

Hank: Brandon Finnegan breakout in 2017? I know the Reds won’t be very good, but I do like some of their young pitchers in Finnegan/Reed/Garrett.

12:12

Eno Sarris: Finnegan’s late season changeup wasn’t plus plus or anything, but he sold it with arm speed and it’ll be a fine third pitch.

12:13

CarrotJuice: What are your thoughts on Matt Szczur? He’s projected to be sub-replacement level.

12:13

Eno Sarris: I don’t know why Steamer doesn’t give him positive defensive value. Also, he’s probably an upgrade over Mahtook/Collins.

12:13

Guest: Need to replace one of my injured pitchers. Who should I pick up out of Santana, Chen, and Finnegan?

12:13

Eno Sarris: Finnegan

12:13

Kentavious: How good is a top 4 rotation of deGrom-Archer-Cole-Stroman in a 12 team league?

12:13

Eno Sarris: Top third.

12:13

botchatheny: is there a right way to drink beer?

12:14

Eno Sarris: I prefer cold and out of a glass.

12:14

Michael P: any favorite food spots in oakland?

12:16

Eno Sarris: Burma Superstar is over in the Alameda near Faction brewing, that’s a fun one two before the game. Or go to Drake’s if you want food truck and good beer right by the game. If you just want food before the game, Tacos La Penca Azul Truck is on High street and has a burrito as long as your arm. CAm Huong has good banh mi downtown.

12:17

Cubs4life: Thoughts on Tommy Joseph for 2017? Can I get by with him as my starting 1B in a 17-team league?

12:17

Eno Sarris: yes. He’s… fine.

12:17

Maxamuz:

12:17

Zach: 1) Great song, 2) I named my fantasy team “Earned Run The Jewels” which I give anyone permission to steal

12:17

Bill Simmons: Don’t you dare to do a beer trade value column, Sarris. I’m watching you

12:18

Eno Sarris: Phew we almost didn’t have an interlude at all.

12:18

ljc: Who are cheap middle reliever targets who will provide excellent ratios (ERA, WHIP, K/9)? I don’t care if they get saves. Basically who’s an unknown, cheap, poor-man’s Betances?

12:18

Eno Sarris: I mean do people know a ton about Matt Bush? They do? Okay, deeper: Evan Scribner.

12:19

Eno Sarris: Vogt, Wieters, d’Arnaud, Mesaraco, with some praying for health for the last two of course.

12:20

OF depth: Can I get by with an Adam Jones, B.Hamilton, & Haniger 3 OF league? I have Xander as DH & Ellsbury on bench.

12:20

Eno Sarris: Ellsbury/Haniger might work out. Don’t trade Xander for an OF just yet.

12:20

Brian: I like Sour, but sours are too sour. I have had a couple sour IPA’s that were a bit milder that I liked. Any recs for sours that are like half as sour as usual?

12:21

Eno Sarris: yeah try some Farmhouse IPAs. Shady Oak in California makes great ones. ToOl make some good hoppy sours you might find (Sur Citra is the best). Rodenbacher Grand Cru is also not so intense.

12:21

DB: Headed to Charlotte area in a couple weeks. Any NC beer recommendations?

12:22

Eno Sarris: NoDa is good, and VBGB has a lot of fun stuff to do and good beer.

12:22

DB: Have some holes in OF and I need speed…would you prefer Cain or Broxton?

12:23

Eno Sarris: Since you’re buying on the trade market, probably, Broxton.

12:23

Mariner Moose: Believer in Mitch Haniger? Or more objectively, Mitch Haniger >2.5 fWAR?

12:23

Eno Sarris: 1.5-2.

12:23

Sno Earris: Through 3 hours in my first Otto FGpts draft people have been REALLY overpaying for nearly everyone based on the prices the RG guys said they’d pay. If I have more money than most teams and less players should I just wait out the mid-high tier until people run out of money overspending then get good values on mid to lower tier players with upside?

12:23

Eno Sarris: No, go get at least one stud on a rental price. Inflation hits every league differently.

12:24

Eno Sarris: I don’t actually look at prices in my ottoneu leagues. I find it a very intuitive process in each draft, to figure out what people need and want and what they are paying for. I don’t spend a lot of time angry at the end, either.

12:24

DTH: Eno, you have good taste in sandwiches, so you’re the expert; what are the top 3 fast food sandwich chains?

12:24

Eno Sarris: I’ll go to a local deli with a good yelp rating before I go to a chain.

12:24

natsfan: Best way to suck money from the auction pool, after nominating the obvious stars – go to the positions with the weakest remaining players? For example, 11 of the top 13 3B eligible players were kept heading into our Draft day

12:25

Eno Sarris: Sure, but Shechter has a point, too, when he says that every time you throw a player you don’t want, you’re giving up a chance to buy a player you do want.

12:25

Big Tuna: Drafting this weekend. What do you make of the bullpen situations in Washington, Colorado and Pittsburgh? Who should I target or should I avoid altogether?

12:26

Eno Sarris: I’m not paying first closer prices for Glover right now, I’d rather pay flier prices on Kelley and then Treinen. Chalk in Colorado and Pitt right now.

12:26

Greg: Thoughts on Shelby Miller’s Spring so far?

12:26

Eno Sarris: I’m happy the velo is back up. Happy to see the strikeouts. He’s a fine final pitcher in 12/15 team leagues.

12:27

CaptainPeanutbutter: The braves have some good pitching prospects, looking at Eric’s FV grades, they don’t have any that project higher than a mid rotation arm. Why do I keep hearing they’re going to have a rotation filled with top of the rotation starters in a few years? Where does this constant disconnect stem from?

12:27

Eno Sarris: I agree with Eric, but I suppose quantity is a great place to come from. One or two should exceed expectations, and then a couple are what we thought they were, and a couple don’t make it at all.

12:28

Mr GM: Eno! a lot of superstars get traded the year before their contracts are up and the haul is always pretty large despite the “lease”. Are most clubs more focused on winning 1 championship while the window is open or sustaining playoff level success (a la STL) for extended periods of time

12:28

Eno Sarris: I think everyone says they’re doing the extended thing, but even the extended success teams have little ups and downs. The Cards have traded guys away, for example.

12:28

CarrotJuice: How confident are you Giolito ever becomes even a league average starter?

12:28

Eno Sarris: 30%

12:29

Jack: On the pod, you said you were down on Aaron Sanchez, keep him for $8 in a 10 team dynasty?

12:29

Eno Sarris: That’s cheap enough to like him a lot.

12:29

Please expound : Ian Kinsler comments. Your thoughts.

12:30

Eno Sarris: I don’t think they were as damning of Puerto Rico’s exuberance as people made them out to be. The Americans also showed some excitement when they won. But, personally, I’ll take some upbeat demonstrative emotional baseball.

12:30

Reginald Denton III: My favorite moment of the WBC wasn’t the Jones catch — it was Machado’s reaction afterwards. Classy. And it reminded us what baseball is all about in the first place.

12:30

CamdenWarehouse: I just drank a Willie Mays. Yuck, 60 year old beer is awful.

12:31

Mr.Met: Can Conforto eventually replace Duda at 1B? Who’s a better stash, Conforto or B.Park?

12:31

Eno Sarris: Conforto. I think Duda will be fine, but if not, Bruce at first and Conforto in the outfield is a better situation.

12:32

Guest: If you had to put together a fangraphs baseball team (including departed employees i.e. August and Kiley), what would it look like? Whos the best hitter, who’s on the bump, who’s your centerfielder?

12:33

Eno Sarris: Sullivan (crafty lefty) on the bump. August (switch-hitter with patience) atop the order. Paul Kastava (big thumper) in the middle. Dave Cameron (pop and patience) third. Eno Sarris (Hunter Pence with long hair) as spark plug second hitter. I want to play again.

12:34

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Sell me on AJ Pollock. Consensus 2nd rd pick last year. How bad was that fractured elbow?

12:34

Eno Sarris: Hey it can’t be that bad coming back from it, he did it before! ….

12:34

Sim: Who gets that Cubs last rotation spot? Montgomery or Anderson?

12:34

Eno Sarris: Anderson early Montgomery late.

12:34

Eli: What is baseball?

12:34

Eno Sarris: life

12:35

Stevo: Your Russell piece yesterday – am I biased as a fantasy owner in taking away from your talking with him that he’s got pretty good awareness of his tendencies as a 23 year old and he still has a lot of ceiling left to reach?

12:35

Eno Sarris: He keeps getting better, incrementally. I think .275 with 25 homer power and a little more patience and contact is totally possible.

12:35

Eno: Is there anyway someone could sign wlaidmir balentien? Not sure what league he’s in but I’d love to see him at 1st

12:35

Eno Sarris: He struck out too much last time he was in the league.

12:36

Maxamuz: Who do you like more when considering ERA, WHIP, HLD, and K: Grant Dayton or Brad Hand? I’m thrilled with Hands 100+ K last year, but is Dayton the better play on a better team?

12:36

Eno Sarris: Dayton imo. Hand on worse team and can’t put up that many innings again, I don’t think.

12:36

CamdenWarehouse: What do you think the chances are that Robert Stephenson can figure things out and be a solid SP?

12:36

Eno Sarris: 20%?

12:37

Reginald Denton III: Eno – let’s take this opportunity to remind everyone that OK Computer turns 20 this year! Anyone reading this chat who’s never heard it should stop whatever they’re doing right now and go listen to it.

12:38

Eno Sarris:

12:38

Ian: You think Yonder Alonso’s altered approach leads to a significantly different and improved player?

12:39

Eno Sarris: Fans (.263/.331/.390) plus some slugging seems attainable. so .275/.335/.420? would be league average!

12:40

Nelson: According to you, we may have reached peak beer bottle shop, we still have room to grow in local breweraies, but have we reached peak waiting in line for bottle releases yet?

12:40

Eno Sarris: Yes, mostly because I’m not doing that crap.

12:40

Nelson: Any spring training batting performances making you look at a guy differently

12:41

Eno Sarris: Taijuan Walker? 25 strikeouts and two walks is pretty sexy time… and I thought I was out.

12:41

Baz: Ryu looking good in Spring… top-100 SP if gets his spot back?

12:41

Eno Sarris: Yes. I’m not sure about the velocity, it was kind of up and down in the start I watched.

12:41

Moltar: I ended up with a rotation of Kershaw-Keuchel-McCullers-Fulmer-Rodon-Urias-Snell-Nova, am I right to be worried that there’s too much downside in that group? Should I package a couple guys for more of a “sure thing” #2 starter or trust what I have?

12:41

Eno Sarris: I’d package Keuchel and Snell if I could.

12:42

Pirates Fan: Charlie Morton is good?

12:42

Eno Sarris: Has that velocity back. But without the splitter, still going to have massive platoon splits.

12:42

Can o’ Corn: My fantasy draft is this weekend, do you have any beer suggestions that go well for both experienced and inexperienced beer drinkers?

12:43

Eno Sarris: Firestone Walker Easy Jack, Lagunitas Day Time, Modern Times Booming Rollers, Stone Ripper Pale Ale.

12:43

python-r: Eno, I need your expertise. What are the five best beers I can buy in Boston?

12:44

Eno Sarris: Night Shift Santilli, Trillium Fort Point, Jacks Abby Hoponius Union, Maine Beer Lunch, and see if they have anything from Vermont.

12:45

Alastar: Do you see Robbie Ray taking a step forward this year and what kind of adjustments does he need to make to get there?

12:45

Eno Sarris: Third pitch. That’s everything.

12:45

Big Mike: I have the 10th pick in snake draft (H2H categories) – thoughts on only drafting hitters for the first 4 picks? What about first 6 picks? Hoping to dominate offensive categories and pick up ~2 pitching week to week.

12:46

Eno Sarris: If you do first five picks, you might still have a great staff anchored by deGrom or Archer.

12:46

Maddux in a Row: Is Jose Iglesias being traded or not? My guess is yes, but maybe not, but also definitely, unless he stays. Thoughts?

12:46

Eno Sarris: Stays put.

12:46

Eto the K: H2H points: Gsellman (5), Anderson (2) for Cargo (2). Which side?

12:47

Eno Sarris: Cargo.

12:47

python-r: Bearclaw?

12:47

Eno Sarris: Barraclough.

12:47

Nietsniew: I WILL NOW INTERLUDE EVERYWHERE….NO ONE IS SAFE

12:47

Justin: Get a law degree. A lot of baseball execs do

12:47

Stevo: Depends if you take econ is business school (more numbers based, modeling) versus liberal arts (theory heavy)

12:47

Guest: Why the love for Finnegan? He was supposedly better in the 2nd half last year, but while his k rate improved his walk rate still stunk.

12:49

Eno Sarris: I think he’ll be a 3.75/1.3 9k9 4bb9 decent major league pitcher with a 20-30% chance of tamping down the walks and being better than that. He’s cheap!

12:49

Jack: Your thoughts on last nights game and whether or not the US winning the championship could have an impact in the future of getting the trouts, kershaws, harpers of the world to start playing in the WBC

12:50

Eno Sarris: “Everyone who wanted to play played” was an interesting comment from Adam Jones.

12:50

Tom: What mascot stands the best chance against the Philly Phanatic in a fight? How many Mr. Mets and Wally the Green Monsters do you have to get before it’s a fair fight?

12:51

Eno Sarris: Lou Seal has no chance. If we can bring back ones out of retirement, Homer from Atlanta might have the skillset.

12:51

Eno Sarris: (harder head, possible weapons)

12:51

Swammy Rivers: Bruce is trying to get his FB rate up to 50% from 41% as the stats say this causes his best possible outcomes…seems like a good strategy?

12:51

Eno Sarris: For power, sure. You have to get them up to get them out! Gonna hit .220 either way.

12:52

Jon: How many Steamer-projected SB would you want to be competitive in 12-tm H2H cats each week? 100?

12:52

Eno Sarris: yeah I target 100-120.

12:52

Cool guy: Idea: a pitcher with 2 different arm slots. Side arm to same siders and over the top for opposite siders

12:52

Eno Sarris: Raisel iglesias, Rich Hill!

12:53

Anthony: What’s your opinion on Honeywell? With a screwball as his top secondary offering, can he succeed against major-leaguer hitters?

12:54

Eno Sarris: He has the pitches he needs, it’s not just a screwball. And he has the velocity. We’ll see about the command, but I don’t think it’s awful.

12:54

Maddux in a Row: Barring injury, odds that Vince Velasquez is the Phillies’ best SP this year?

12:54

Eno Sarris: One in two. I like Eickhoff, but I give Nola and VV the ceiling.

12:55

rick: Jarrod Dyson is hot this spring.. do you think he thrives atop Seattle’s lineup?

12:55

Eno Sarris: Told me he choked up last year and that he’s ready to be an every day player. I could see a guy like him not having crazy platoon splits — he puts everything on the ball and isn’t looking to pull for power — so yeah I think he’s a good bet for a good year.

12:56

Greg: Chances Jacob Degrom is the most underrated pitcher in baseball? Since entering the league in 2014, he’s 6th and 7th among SPs in FIP- and ERA-, respectively. But, I feel like he’s never in the conversation of one of the best pitchers in the game

12:56

Eno Sarris: Agree. Elite command, good velocity, great collection of pitches (Viola’s curve, Warthen’s slider, Johan’s change).

12:57

Lars: $6 Schwarber or a $1 Benintendi in a keeper? both as OF only

12:57

Eno Sarris: Schwarbs.

12:57

Steve: What is the ideal number of taps? Some place just opened in Pittsburgh with 90 taps of which maybe 12 were something I would ever order. I think a well curated 23 taps is a good number. 3 for BL, ML, and Yuengling. 20 for good stuff.

12:58

Eno Sarris: 90 is really hard to keep clean and will have plenty of duds that aren’t moving. Yeah I like 15-25.

12:58

Greg H: Does Addison Reed keep the job if he is lights out during JF suspension?

12:58

Eno Sarris: no.

12:58

Seno Narris: Can Trevor Story hit 40 bombs this season?

12:58

Eno Sarris: yes.

12:58

Mantis Rey: I lie back softly on a bed of new-mown hay and think of Dante Bichette

12:59

Nobody speak: Nobody gets choked

12:59

Carl Edwards Joonyer: I just came to say HELLBOY

12:59

Eno Sarris: Well then.

12:59

Butt Cheese: What’s your least favorite part of the human body?

12:59

Eno Sarris: Hamstrings right now. Jesus they’re so tight and I can’t get them loose. Also that spot on the back you can’t reach.

12:59

So: I messed up and didn’t draft a LFer due to idiocy…Haniger, Werth, Gardner, Conforto, Rajai, or Melky?

1:00	Eno Sarris: Well you need to actually play a guy right now, it sounds like, so hope you can pick up two. If not, Rajai.

1:00	UM: Joe Ross seems a bit undervalued. Why the low rankings everywhere? Injury concerns?

1:01	Eno Sarris: yeah and third pitches aren’t great, but he trusts them and everyone has injury risk.

1:01	Evil Goatee Eno: What are the best defensive categories to use in fantasy baseball, keeping in mind that they are all garbage?

1:01	Eno Sarris: Assists/putouts as a proxy for range and d importance?

1:01	Mango Mania: Would it make sense to trade my Carlos Santana for his Trea Turner? I have Greg Bird for my backup 1B

1:01	Eno Sarris: yes yes yes

1:02	HappyFunBall: Low man of the WAS 3-way closer battle = cheap good ratio middle reliever with saves upside

1:02	Eno Sarris: yup

1:02	Zack: How do you play fantasy baseball?

1:02	Eno Sarris: Every single way, it feels like.

1:02	TuToo : Does an outfield of Betts/Benintendi/Ozuna work with Thames and Mazara as extras?

1:02	Eno Sarris: I want to kiss it.

1:03	Beefcake: Visiting Citi Field in April. Any drink/food suggestions for the park?

1:04

Eno Sarris: Everyone’s going to say Shake Shack or Blue Smoke (BBQ) but the lines are gnarly. I like Ron’s Mexican burger down the third base line, usually less of a line for his guac and bacon burger. Mama’s of Corona in right field has great sandwiches. Best beer is by Shake Shack in left field on the concourse, beers of the world sort of stand, but @ceetar might now where there’s better beer right now.

1:04	Anon: Are you an alcoholic?

1:06

Eno Sarris: You know, I get this question fairly often and don’t usually answer it because I think it’s rude and not your place to judge me. But maybe people need to understand what my day to day is like. I have two toddlers and work from home. I cook dinner four or five times a week and wake up at six am most mornings. I take Mondays and Wednesdays off all beer, Tuesdays and Thursdays have one or two at most. On the weekend, I feel I’ve earned my rest, and open up my plus plus beer fridge to see what I’ve got. I very rarely have hangovers. I can have a fun time without beer. Short answer: no, and f off.

1:07	Evil Goatee Eno: When is the last time you thought about Rich Amaral?

1:07	Eno Sarris: Who?

1:07	Zock Jr.: Eno’s ludes are my reach, but asking Szym about Nick Markakis is my safety.

1:07	Eno Sarris: I get you.

1:08	Jay Bilas: Does Evan Gattis get traded?

1:09	Eno Sarris: Bit of a screen door on a submarine right now, huh. With Beltran’s health, I think they keep Gattis. If Beltran is running well, maybe he plays some LF and Gattis DHs. If not, you want Gattis around because he might need to replace Beltran.

1:09	Dave: I’ve read a lot about the White Sox keeping Moncada in the minors for years of control reasons. I was under the impression that because he signed as an international free agent that process didn’t apply to him. Or am I completely off base?

1:09	Eno Sarris: No, he’s got years of control like anyone else. I’m unclear as to what happens since they started his clock in Boston already, but I think they just have to keep him down in the minors a bit longer.

1:10	Guest: Heading to Houston for work soon. Any beer recommendations?

1:12	Eno Sarris: From the book: Lone Pint if you’ll travel to Magnolia. Karbach a little closer. If you have to stay in town, Brash Brewing, with The Beer Station nearby for takehomes. St. Arnold and 8th Wonder closes to downtown.

1:12	Eno Sarris: www.beergraphs.com/book

1:12	Can o’ Corn: What’s your go to sandwich whenever you are trying out a new deli/sandwich shop?

1:12	Eno Sarris: I try not to, but often something with bacon.

1:13

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Incoming economics grad student. An econ degree is neither sufficient nor necessary for baseball work, but it doesn’t hurt. Micro, econometrics, behavioral, and some finance would be nice, but most of the baseball value comes from conducting research/being an RA, not solving for market equilibrium under Cournot competition. You want basically a minor in both math and cosci anyway for baseball, so plan ahead.

1:13	Eno Sarris: Boom.

1:13	RAGS: NL-only OBP league. Is Schimpf keepable at 8?

1:13	Eno Sarris: Sure.

1:13	Paul: I’m a bit baffled as to why Matt Kemp is viewed so badly. A team like Atlanta needs his RH power. Not many guys slug 74 XBH, are they correct in ignoring WAR or would they truly be better with for example Angel Pagan in LF all year? I just don’t get it.

1:15

Eno Sarris: The shape of a player’s contribution and how it fits the rest of the team is an interesting asterisk, I feel. But if you look at how different some really good teams are (SF vs Houston, for example), it does make sense that you can put together different teams and maybe have a one-number value estimation.

1:15	Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Will Correa make the leap this year as the best SS in the game?

1:16	Eno Sarris: Lindor’s grab the other day was great… gonna be hard to be that defense. Offensively, yeah, I think Correa will be number one this year. He was hurt a couple times last year and his numbers suffered.

1:16	Baloo: 1) You think JaCoby Jones is ready enough to just take the CF job in Detroit? 2) D. Machado is as good, if not better than Iglesias at this point, right? Can they get anything for Iglesias?

1:16	Eno Sarris: 1) ready enough to be on the team, which means start, but that’s also indictment of the rest of the crew. 2) not sure, and I wouldn’t trade Iglesias yet.

1:16	mario mendoza: Do you buy the Brandon Crawford comp for Addison Russell?

1:17	Eno Sarris: More power. I think more Jhonny Peralta with defense.

1:17	New Zealand and Australia : Who do you think will sign Angel Pagan?

1:17	Eno Sarris: Toronto or Detroit.

1:17

Jimbo: Just drafted and got some strange reactions from other owners. One said he thought my staff was excellent another thought it was terrible. Curious what your thoughts are. Staff is: Lester, Yu, Hill, Keuchel, Shoe, Rodon, Nova, Folty, Santana, Gsellman w Oh and Dyson as RPs. Thoughts? It’s a points league.

1:18	Eno Sarris: Hah I hate and love it. Lester (meh), Yu (Cy coming), Hill (sure, for 100 IP), Keuchel (meh), Shoe (!!), Rodon (!!), Nova (meh), Folty (!), Gsellman (!), and your RPs are fine. You might lose Dyson, or you might not. That sinker gives him great floor.

1:18	Thomas: For the guy asking about Charlotte, highly recommend Flight in uptown

1:18	mtsw: Drafted Hyun Soo Kim in a deep league I thought was a daily league but is actually a weekly league. Does he have a shot at playing often enough to be worth keeping or is he going to be a platoon only guy again?

1:18	Eno Sarris: Def platoon.

1:18	Jake: Is Josh Bell going to hit enough to be a utility/dh in fantasy keeper leagues?

1:19	Eno Sarris: I’d hold yeah.

1:19	Jarrett: Think we will ever see women significantly more involved in Major League Baseball? Whether that would mean in umpiring, front offices, managing, or perhaps even playing. Is this something that could happen?

1:19	Eno Sarris: Time. I’m not saying we should give them time, we should push, but I’m saying it will take time.

1:19	The Cincinnati Kid: Does AJ Reed work his way into a job with the MLB team this year that’s not bench bat? Speculate a date: _______

1:20	Eno Sarris: Actually, after writing up the 1B situation, I think he will. June/July.

1:20	Eno Sarris: In some ways, YG strikes me as a backup, and he’s right-handed, so they could platoon easily.

1:21	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: On the WBC: it’s pretty darn cool to hear “U-S-A” chants that aren’t just being annoying to the Blue Jays.

1:21	Eno Sarris: I liked the fans, the noise, the excitement.

1:21	Eno Sarris: “This is a like a college football game or a euro soccer game” is a good sign if you’re saying that in the crowd.

1:21	IV: Hey Eno, doing an NFBC draft for the first time. If you have any experience, what kind of players should I look to grab in the last 10 rounds? Do you buy Anibal Sanchez’s mechanical adjustments this spring? Was Wily Peralta’s last 2 months last year legit?

1:22	Eno Sarris: I wouldn’t grab those guys, but guys off my sleeper list above would be good. I’d say 66-75% of your bench should be starting pitchers and relievers that might break out or close. You can’t trade and wire is thin.

1:22	Hans Focker: Is Rasiel Iglesias worth holding in a ten team H2H?

1:22	Eno Sarris: Yes.

1:22	Quadrangular: Is spring training too long? What should be changed? Relatedly, when (which month) should the WBC be played in?

1:23	Eno Sarris: Cut two weeks from spring training, replace money with a three or five game Wild Card series, play WBC in March, replace All Star game with WBC final. None of this will happen but I love it all.

1:23	Funky diabetic: Thoughts on Junior Guerra? Looking good in spring

1:23	Eno Sarris: Always liked it.

1:23	rick: someone said you are down on Aaron Sanchez. elaborate please!

1:24	Eno Sarris: Third pitch not quality yet and his strikeout rate was cut in half third time through the order last year.

1:24	Cassandar: You’re a big Bellinger guy even with that swing. I am too. Lots to like in his profile. 35+ HR possible in prime with .270/.350

1:24	Eno Sarris: All over that.

1:24	Ty: Last keeper: Yelich or Darvish? My other keepers are Donaldson, Blackmon, Stanton, Votto, Freeman, Dozier, and Syndergaard. Standard 12-team roto.

1:24	Eno Sarris: Yu. 8 keepers, 2 pitchers is fine.

1:25

Shel: I’m chatting from school. first time doing fantasy and I’m in a league that’s daily and head to head with 4 staring pitcher spots and 2 reliever spots and 2 utility pitcher spots. Should I load up on starting pitchers early or wait on pitchers and get a lot of low end guys? thanks eno, your hair is a wonderland.

1:26	Eno Sarris: You want to take last guys in tiers, I think. You still want an ace reliever, a good second one, two relievers that might close for utility, and then most of your bench should be pitchers.

1:27	Maddux in a Row: Re: Radiohead, just yesterday I heard “The Air I Breathe” by the Hollies and was amazed how much it sounded like Creep. Turns out it was the inspiration. Maybe better fans already knew this.

1:27	Eno Sarris:

1:28	Franklin: Everyone seems to be high on Cody Bellinger. But, do people think Adrian Gonzalez is done? Do you think he can get back to 25+ HR’s, or was last season the start of his fall from grace?

1:28	Eno Sarris: I didn’t like what happened with his batted ball stats. Exit velo down, pull all screwed up, no pulled air balls. I don’t think Bellinger will get a ton of PA this year, but he’s close.

1:29	Gary: When are your pitcher rankings updated?

1:29	Eno Sarris: Not sure it’ll happen but the podcast we did last night was pretty comprehensive on that matter.

1:29	Beefcake: Please rank from most likely to return to big time fantasy production to least likely: Stanton, McCutchen, Gomez, Heyward, Bautista

1:29	Eno Sarris: Stanton, Cutch, Bautista, Heyward

1:29	Joe: I know we are supposed to dig DIPA’s, but I often find them too alcohol-y. Had some Hop Stoopid the other day and it started nice but quickly almost became too much.

1:30	Eno Sarris: Yeah I’m starting to find DIPAs too much, too, but I did have Firestone Walker’s Fortem recently and really liked it, so I’m not all the way there yet.

1:30	Napa Guy: Where do you live in NorCal? Been to the Lagunitas Brewery?

1:30	Eno Sarris: Palo Alto aka shallow alto

1:30	Fly To Beer: Which airports seem to be serving the best beers now? Planning the next vacation!

1:31	Eno Sarris: Bob Hope has Elysian at least, but I saw some good beer in Chicago and I’ve heard good things about Portland. San Diego has Stone right in the airport.

1:31	Dave: Beer Question – What is the deal with Guinness and whether or not it is vegetarian?

1:31	Eno Sarris: It was not vegetarian before, it used fish guts to fine/filter it, but now it doesn’t! Phew!

1:31	Dave: What in the world are we supposed to do about JD Martinez right now?

1:31	Eno Sarris: But him as if he’ll be regular guy for 5 months I’d guess.

1:32	Nelson Munce: How is Joe Ross doing working on his third pitch?

1:32	Eno Sarris: Throwing them more. He already threw his changeup last year more than his brother ever did, so he’s a little ahead.

1:32	Franklin: Are you a fan of Gsellman late in drafts?

1:32	Eno Sarris: Sure. I like his sinker but not his secondary stuff that much.

1:32	Carl : Berrios article you promised?

1:32	Eno Sarris: Working on it, maybe tomorrow lol.

1:33	Rasta: Can Dansby Swanson put up Lindor’s offensive line with about 10-12 less steals this yr?

1:33	Eno Sarris: yeah.

1:33	mtsw: How will the Braves’ new park play, park factors wise? Do we have any idea yet?

1:33	Eno Sarris: A little bit more hitter friendly (a little shorter down the alleys) but still fair.

1:33	python-r: Dave said yesterday that he thought Adam Frazier could win the 2B job at some point this season. What say you?

1:33	Eno Sarris: A bit of an empty batting average guy, but could do a Panik.

1:34	Johnny Tom: Hi Eno, can you explain if there have been any studies done on Thoratic Outlet Syndrome and if any pitchers have made it back at equal or better performance? TJ surgery seems to be more mainstream these days but I have yet to see any TOS people come back equal or better – i.e. Harvey

1:34	Eno Sarris: The sample is still tiny. Chris Carpenter did it! So did some others that didn’t make it back.

1:34	CamdenWarehouse: Goldschmidt didn’t want to play?

1:34	Eno Sarris: yeah I don’t get that part. I feel like Leyland was super “My guys” on this one.

1:35	Can o’ Corn: What are your thoughts on fans doing “the wave” during a game?

1:35	Eno Sarris: Go to a game. Have fun. Don’t stand up if you don’t like the wave.

1:35	Ben: I assume the person recommending a law degree for someone who doesn’t want to be a lawyer is either 1) a jokester or 2) someone who enjoys setting money on fire.

1:35	CaptainPeanutbutter: Do you think there is enough weight given, when talking about building through pitching, to the fact that higher injury risk can have a pretty big influence on your “competitive window”?

1:36	Eno Sarris: I suppose the build through pitching people would say quantity can overcome that issue, and I’d guess we’re looking at that, a little bit, with the Mets.

1:36	Franklin: What are your thoughts on Cameron Maybin? I’m looking for a cheap SB guy, and he’s essentially an undrafted guy at this point. My league has DL slots, so the obligatory DL trips don’t worry me much.

1:36	Eno Sarris: Sure, why not.

1:36	Lambo: People are drafting Paxton like he’s a top 20 Sp but letting Rodon slide. Weren’t their second halves roughly equivalent in “breakout value”? Paxton added Velo while Rodon improved his change up/got a better catcher.

1:37	Eno Sarris: Yeah I’m letting Paxton go at current prices. Sometimes the helium takes them too far up.

1:37	sugar watkins: The Oriole bird can take the phanatic. He kidnapped him during an O’s/Phils interleague series. He tied im to a chair and put duct tape over…whatever that thing is on his face.

1:37	Hugh: Is watching baseball on my phone during my 10 person math lecture acceptable

1:38	Eno Sarris: yeesh your teacher can tell, but sure, baseball is great. also: last night’s game is on MLBN and it’s the fifth, I think in the sixth or seventh, that’s when Lindor got Cutch’s ball that was headed for LF.

1:38

Not Bork: For my last keeper, I can pick either Trea Turner or George Springer. If I keep turner, I can keep him for $12 this year, and for two more years at $22 each year (or 3 years for $27 each year). If I keep Springer, I can keep him forever at whatever fangraphs auction calculator spits out (this year it’s $28). What say you Eno?

1:39	Eno Sarris: Turner, even with regression. Better price.

1:39	Twin Cities: Vargas or Park? Who gets most DH ab’s this year?

1:39	Eno Sarris: They already DFA’ed Park and kept him, so I think Vargas gets first shot.

1:39	mario mendoza: How much can you trust called strikes as a skill (Nola)

1:39	Eno Sarris: Supposedly as much as swinging strikes, according to some Matt Swartz research in the past. I’m fairly heavily biased against it though.

1:39	pH: Whatever happened to that Kakie Bryan character?

1:40	English Bob: Simple question: How many HRs does Mazara hit this year?

1:40	Eno Sarris: 23.5

1:41	Tom: You were higher than many on pomeranz in your ranks. Has that changed in last month?

1:42	Eno Sarris: A little bit. I’d probably drop him a bit. For one, he’s not going that high so you don’t have to spend like that. Then there’s the fact that even though he’s Hill-like, he doesn’t have that same spin rate on the fastball.

1:42	mario mendoza: Did you get the sense that Addison really understood what you said when you mentioned the increased hacking at sliders last year? Or was he just going along with what you were saying?

1:42	Eno Sarris: I didn’t say anything about the zone thing. I just asked why he swung at more sliders, and that was his answer, so yeah, I think he understood the question!

1:43	Dan in a van: 2015 Castellanos killed lefties, last year he killed righties and was bad against the other hands- very strange. Do you think reverse splits are sustainable, and if so are they bad to target for someone? What do you think about Castellanos splits too for predicting this year.

1:43	Eno Sarris: Never believe in reverse splits!

1:43	Duhbear: Best Vermont beers? Heady is overrated and Sip of Sunshine is life.

1:43	Eno Sarris: Also like Fiddlehead.

1:44

Franklin: A few years ago, Jim Johnson was coming off a 50 save season for Baltimore, went to Oakland as was absolutely TERRIBLE. That kind of drop is rather unprecedented, but I have this weird feeling it’s going to happen to Mark Melancon. If you had to choose one top tier closer to completely bomb out ala Johnson, who would it be?

1:44	Eno Sarris: Even wrote it about it for ESPN. Velo, Ks not there for Melancon, definitely the guy that makes me nervous.

1:44	E to the K: Just completed my first Ottoneu auction draft, and I think I’m addicted. Should I register immediately for ALL THE DRAFTS?

1:45	Eno Sarris: If you’ve got the time, yes. They’re fun.

1:45	baby bull : also been following your scoresheet draft a little on twitter.. what is your league name?

1:46	Eno Sarris: al skeeter. I messed up a few times. Delino kept me from drafted Ed Escobar late, and now Didi is hurt and Goins/Barney is my SS situation. Not good, bob, not good. (Rest of my team is killer, I’m team 1)

1:46	David: Found it – http://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/18980970

1:46	Eno Sarris: LindOHHHHHHHHr

1:46	JP: a bottle shop opened up in my town recently with all of the beers sitting out on shelves. I refuse to go in.

1:46	Eno Sarris: Open the door and yell WHERE ARE YOUR BEER FRIDGES and close it.

1:46	Malt Master : Favorite Arizona beer? Favorite Cactus League ballpark?

1:47	Eno Sarris: Arizona Wilderness with Wren House second. I kinda like Scottsdale because it’s not in a strip mall and has a bit of an historical feel.

1:47	Moltar: The BBQ Platter at Blue Smoke is a legit good deal. $14 for two meats, beans and corn bread. Basically the same price you’d spend for that amount of food outside the ballpark in NY.

1:47	Terrible Ted: I prefer my sandwiches cut in triangles.

1:47	Ctw: Did you see blengino’s contact quality piece on bregman? Dampen enthusiasm for him a bit?

1:48	Eno Sarris: I see some exit velo concerns. I also see plus plus defense that will keep him on the field, better strikeout rate coming, good speed, and a super high floor with good ceiling.

1:48	Moltar: Also for Citi Field food, go a couple hours early, go to Main Street Flushing, and buy a bunch of dumplings or buns. I suggest the Duck Buns at Corner 28 on 40th Road&Main St

1:48	Quadrangular: Tyler O’Neill: Kiss or Dis?

1:48	Eno Sarris: Kiss.

1:48	Quadrangular: the correct answer is kiss. the little guy got game

1:48	Eno Sarris: And quads/biceps like a little Mark McGwire.

1:49	Moltar: OF of Marte, Khris, Gomez with Desmond on the DL any good?

1:49	Eno Sarris: Not sure old Gomez is ever coming back so stay vigilant. Might be fine for a month.

1:50	python-r: You buying Aaron Judge this season?

1:51	Eno Sarris: Man that Sullivan post was eye opening. I was worried his power wasn’t that upper level and the Ks would sink him. I dunno. Not paying a lot, but I am finding myself paying for steals more in a scarce environment and finding late power sleepers, and he qualifies.

1:51	JKD: At Citi Field, Catch of the Day is also really good, and almost never has lines.

1:51	CamdenWarehouse: The Hop Stop if you’re in the northern suburbs of Houston

1:51	E: Remember that time Rajai Davis and David Ross hit home runs in the late innings of Game 7 of the World Series? What a time to be alive!

1:51	TwinsWin: In your pitching evaluation, could you rank the importance of these stats… h/ip, k/bb, SwK%,

1:52	Eno Sarris: swK%, velo, K%, quality of pitches, number of pitches, BB%……………………………………………. h/ip.

1:52	mario mendoza: Why do people even play 5×5 any more? Especially fans of Fangraphs? Bill James book is 30 years old. Moneyball is 15 years old. FG is10 years old. Can’t we just make FGpts the new standard?

1:53	Eno Sarris: Why do people play checkers when there is chess? As I see it, it’s a game. You learn the rules, and you find a way to win. It’s actually more fun to use saber stats to try and predict 5×5 than to just play saber stats, IMO.

1:53	pirates hurdles: RE Moncada and clock – They just have to keep him down longer to avoid 172 days (league year). Normally its like 2 weeks in minors, but he had 31 days last year so they will have to wait until mid May at least. The days in MLB are simply additive.

1:53	Eno Sarris: What I figured.

1:53	Lawn: What’s a low cost sandwich for a student? usually I have salami and ham in regular bread with the occasinal cheese and a few veggies here and there

1:54	Eno Sarris: Start with ham and swiss and just get fun with the thing you add. Cucumber. Jelly. Not at the same time, but maybe.

1:54

E: I’m struggling to build a good sandwich to take to work for lunch. An assembled sandwich that sits in the fridge for 4 hours always just seems off, bringing all the parts of a sandwich to work and assembling them separately is a hassle. I am struggling to find a good solution where the only option to heat something up is a microwave. Any advice?

1:54	Eno Sarris: maybe just don’t put the mayo/mustard/sauce on the bread so that it seeps in and gets gross?

1:54	HappyFunBall: Re: Gattis. don’t forget that the HOU 1B situation isn’t exactly a sure thing. If Gurriel doesn’t hit and Reed still fails to develop, there will be PA’s there also

1:54	Eno Sarris: Yeah there too!

1:55	Eno Sarris: Crap I have to go on Bill Barnwell’s podcast in five minutes, have to prepare! Thanks for hanging out!

1:55	RAGS: The saddest thing about these chats is that Eno will never know the joy of seeing the blue highlight pop up.

1:55	Russ Hanneman: Is there reason to worry about Duffy’s lowered velocity? Or is it time to expect he’ll be sitting lower than last year?

1:55	Eno Sarris: just a little bit. and yeah, he’ll be lower.

1:56	Pretty Tony: lude me up before you go-go, don’t lude me hanging on like a lude-lude

1:56	Alex: Can you recommend a solid pepper beer? I love LOVE Surly’s Fiery Hell, but I’ve been pretty disappointed by every other one I’ve tried. I just haven’t had anything else that gives me the same tongue burn.

1:56	Eno Sarris: pairie bomb but i don’t love that burn.

1:56	Pretty Tony: My dad was trying to remember the name “Trader Joes” and instead called it “Uncle Bob’s”

1:56	Eno Sarris: Okay I have to go

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Azizalmember

7 years ago

Re: Gattis and getting PT at 1B. This seems to be a common belief but it seems to be completely wrong. He’s gotten a grand total of 4 games there ever, all of them in 2013 w/the Braves. No one grabbed the 1B job in HOU last year yet they didn’t give him a single inning there, and now they have even more options. No one should be surprised if he plays 0 games there again this year.

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG