Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 4/21/16 by Eno Sarris April 21, 2016 1:47 Eno Sarris: No idea what the images are but I like A-Trak and I like the Yeah Yeah Yeahs so 12:01 The Hamburglar: What is wrong with Chris Archer? Article idea! 12:03 Eno Sarris: Just having a chat with Collette about this. Checked injury markers and he has two: zone% is down precipitously and velo is down too. Exit velocity up 4mph. Slugging percentage up on the slider. He admits the slider isn’t well. Friend said he thinks he sees Archer making an adjustment in his legs to get velocity back and that something is now off kilter up top. Hopefully he’s not hiding anything. If his release point was super inconsistent, I’d be more worried, but I’ll give him a 6/10 worry. 12:03 JeevesAsksYou: Traded Story for JD Martinez. Already had Seager and Suarez. Not too shabby eh? 12:03 Eno Sarris: Yeah I’d do that. 12:04 The Hamburglar: What pitchers have demonstrated a changed approach, new arsenal of pitchers, etc. that you are high on thus far? 12:05 Eno Sarris: Graveman’s new cutter and velocity makes me think he’s a mixed leaguer suddenly. Santiago’s new velocity has me intrigued. Robbie Ray’s changeup was better than I thought. Aaron Sanchez’s changeup is good. 12:06 Sirras One: I know it’s early but so far it appears BHam has made every adjustment he needs to get on base more (improved BB%, GB/FB). He’s even hitting the ball softer! I think such things are also the first to stabilize. So, should I be glad he fell so far in the draft that I couldn’t turn away? Cuz he’s still not getting on base. 12:07 Eno Sarris: He fell far enough for me to have a couple shares, so I’m in your boat. .179 BABIP is bad, especially for a guy with his wheels. I do like the new approach, and I think it’ll click. Good news: if it doesn’t this year, you can move on. lol. 12:07 Alan: Anything new from MadBum’s start last night? Still a sell? 12:08 Eno Sarris: Looked better, release getting better. Still: nobody is swinging at his curveball for some reason, and he’s still a tick-plus down from normal velocity. I don’t think it’ll be a vintage season. 12:08 Texas Toast: Have you seen anything in Tyler White over the past few weeks that has changed how you view him going forward? 12:09 Eno Sarris: Hard not to be impressed by the power so far. The strikeout rate has to / should come down. He looks legit. 12:10 Mike: My friends and I will be embarking on a road trip. We need a city between Cleveland and Charlotte that has a great beer scene, lots of breweries, etc. Recommendations? 12:10 Eno Sarris: Well, you’re driving through a lot of West Virginia so I don’t think there is an easy answer. If you made your trip longer and stopped in Philly, then you could really see something. 12:10 Billy Beane: Do you start Rich Hill in New York tonight? 12:11 Eno Sarris: No. I don’t trust him. He can’t spot that fastball and is relying on non-swings on curves in the zone, which is just a weird way to be. 12:11 Brew Ha: On Tuesday I snagged a limited release Wild IPA that was aged in Palo Santo Wood. I know it’s best to drink right away but am I OK waiting until this weekend? 12:11 Eno Sarris: If it was aged, you can wait. 12:12 Scooby: Porcello was not good last year, but he seems to be solid this year so far, and the K rate has stayed up. He was fairly well valued before his fall from grace last year. Are you buying this resurgence? Top 50 SP in mixers? 12:12 Eno Sarris: His velocity is down and his swinging strikes don’t match his strikeouts, but I do like that he’s returned to using his sinker primarily. I think more like 60-70 12:12 Eric: Who ends up with the most saves for the Reds? Cingrani and Cotham are both up for auction right now, which one would you go after, or would you just wait for a better situation to emerge? 12:13 Eno Sarris: I’m thinking Blake Wood right now. Cingrani was my first pick, but he’s the only lefty in that pen. Everyone else is imploding. 12:14 Sean P: Mat Latos has looked great so far for the Sox. I’m wondering if in your opinion Latos had to take the sort of deal he signed this offseason because he is such a Bag or if he was also showing indicators as an actual pitcher that were legit concerns for teams? If so, what does Latos have to prove this year to get a deal for the pitcher he has shown to be in the past? 12:14 Eno Sarris: I 12:14 Eno Sarris: am not in on him. His swinging strikes and velocity are all gone. He’s got a weird delivery and movement and I think people are just getting used to him. Injury was always a concern with him. 12:15 Bork: Someone should help Curt Schilling start a podcast. And by start a podcast I mean tape a microphone cord to a toaster so that he can spout his opinions in silence rather then sharing them with the world. 12:15 Eno Sarris: I heard that Rush Limbaugh’s seat is up and that his radio company is facing bankruptcy and can’t afford him… 12:15 Erik: Is it important to have aat least one lefty in the rotation? Seems like that’s the conventional wisdom, but I can’t see where it would really matter. 12:15 Eno Sarris: Might matter more in a short playoff matchup than a full season. 12:16 James: So Max Kepler comes into today with three ABs in the Twins’ last seven games. He’s fallen behind Oswaldo Arcia in the battle for the OF4 spot. Wouldn’t it have made more sense to leave him in AAA and bring up someone like Mastroianni instead? 12:16 Eno Sarris: yes. 12:16 Jack Black: It really feels like Francisco Rodriguez is on borrowed time. Who’s the guy I should be stashing as his replacement, Lowe or Wilson? 12:16 Eno Sarris: They sharing the 8th and Lowe is the righty, so I take him. 12:16 David: First time using this chat, how does this work exactly? 12:16 Eno Sarris: You’re doing fine. 12:16 Eno Sarris: Let’s have some soothing music. 12:16 Z: Desclafani on my DL. In the meantime, I’ve added Eickhoff and Aaron Sanchez. When the time comes drop either to activate Descla or would you drop him? 12:17 Eno Sarris: I’d leave him on your DL and sacrifice flexibility to see a couple starts, if that’s possible. if not, drop him I guess. 12:17 Mathenaging ’16: when you open the queue for questions 12:17 Eno Sarris: yeah I haven’t even made it to the moment when the chat began. 12:17 Steve: Will this be Jake Lamb;s breakout season? 12:17 Eno Sarris: I predicted 20 homahs for him! 12:18 Eno Sarris: Also have a piece going up on ESPN about his swing changes. Talked to him Tuesday. 12:18 Bobby: How excited are you about Sean Manaea? When are we likely to see him called up and do you expect him to be fantasy-relevant this season? 12:18 Eno Sarris: Too many guys there to see lots of innings this year. 12:18 Shawn: You buying Matt Harvey? S. Marte or Puig too much? 12:18 Eno Sarris: oo much, even though I think he’s fixable. 12:19 JV: Talk about Saltalamacchia. He’s taking walks. He’s hitting bombs. Can he stick all year and hit 20 homers with a 325 OBP? 12:19 Eno Sarris: Maybe he can manage a .320 OBP, and shouldn’t be too hard for him to hit another 15 homers. But that’ll still be a regression. 12:19 David Quintana: Hello? 12:19 Eno Sarris: Is it me you’re looking for? 12:19 Eno Sarris: I CAN SEE IT IN YOUR EYES 12:20 Scooby: Sporer has been touting Shane Greene. Does he have sneaky value/upside in 12-team mixers, or just an occasional streamer? 12:21 Eno Sarris: We’ve both loved him, but when I was talking to Greinke about Greene’s ability to throw four breaking balls, he asked a very good question: are they all good pitches, and can he keep them distinct? Because Greinke can throw you a good cutter every once in a while, but he can’t throw a cutter and slider and keep them separate all year. I’d stream him. 12:21 JV: It appeared to me that Samardzija was throwing harder Sunday night and mixed in his splitter. Can he turn it around? 12:22 Eno Sarris: Talked to him, and I hope he didn’t convince me he’s better, but he did say a lot of things I liked to hear about meshing well with the pitching coach in SF and feeling good. He admitted he has to get ahead more to throw the splitter more, but he was doing that too. He shouldn’t be a free agent but I don’t know that I want to trade a ton to get him. 12:22 David Quintana: I have Domingo Santana, Randal grichuk, and Piscotty in a keeper league. Unsure if which to move and which to keep. 12:22 Eno Sarris: Keep Domingo for sure for sure. I think sell Grichuk. 12:22 Sonny: Have we seen anything from Cody Anderson in the first few weeks to support or refute the claim that he could be one of the next breakout pitchers? 12:23 Eno Sarris: No strikeouts, very few swinging strikes, mediocre ground ball rate, much of the velocity boost gone. so, yeah. 12:23 Bork: Josh Thole is a baseball player on a major league team. That’s gotta count as a lude right? Because it’s ridiculous. 12:23 PenoButtis: heads will rollllllll on the flo 12:23 CecilFieldersButtPlug: WoooooWeee! I am exhausted from overuse! 12:24 Eno Sarris: Well that was an indecent way to start things off. 12:24 Gest : Robbie Ray has increased the velo of his off speed stuff every year while his fastball remains the same (and he’s been doing well against some good lineups this year) does he have something here? 12:24 Eno Sarris: The change was better than I thought and yet it’s a straight change. Great velo on his fastball, but bad command. He was better than I thought and yet not good enough for me to get behind completely. 12:25 Cronut Burger: Still feeling excited about Semien? 12:25 Eno Sarris: I mean, you see the improved walk rate and the power, right? 12:25 Thwerve: I see two mid-20s veterans standing out in top 10 of the K-BB% leaderboard who both have long, long histories of mediocre results and have started the year by giving up a bunch of homers – Rick Porcello and Nate Eovaldi. See any promising changes in either of them or is this just another small sample where the xFIP and ERA will both converge back towards normal in a bit? 12:26 Eno Sarris: Eo is throwing the splitter a ton and that’s making him hard for hitters to figure. When they square up his fastball it goes a mile, but they’re having a hard time guessing when that’s coming. I like what he’s doing. 12:26 Tim: Kendall Graveman’s ceiling? 12:27 Eno Sarris: I think if he figures just a little more out, he could be a Gio Gonzalez type. 12:27 The Man with the Plan: Trevor Bauer will be starting games again by ___________ 2016 12:27 Eno Sarris: May 1 12:27 HappyFunBall: The case for Drew Pomeranz grows … 12:27 Eno Sarris: He’s like a good Rich Hill right now. 12:28 Shawn: Have you had any beers from Against the Grain? I’ve had 2 IPA’s – Citra Ass Down and Rico Sauvin and both are fantastic. 12:28 Eno Sarris: I like Rico Sauvin but others don’t share my enthusiasm. Pretty good beer! 12:28 dbet: Kershaw in the morning, Kershaw in the evening, Kershaw at supper time. When Kershaw’s on a bagel, you can have Kershaw anytime. 12:28 Matt: The message that comes up after submitting a question reminds me of my favorite quote – “Everything in moderation, including moderation.” – Oscar Wilde 12:29 Curt Schilling: It’s Archer’s hair messing up his velocity 12:29 Eno Sarris: Phew. 12:29 Mike D: Stash Trea Turner NOW or is it going to be June? 12:30 Eno Sarris: Espinosa being patient and the team is rolling. No need to do it right now, especially since we know the Nats are a little suspicious of Turner’s D at short — they played him at second with Desmond at short! 12:30 Horace: Half question/half rant: Any clue why Collins keeps pinch hitting for Conforto against any lefty even if the Mets are up big? Seems like the best ways to get better against lefties is to actually face them from time to time. And why does Granderson never sit against lefties. He has a career OBP under .300 against them. Last year he hit a robust .183/.273./.286 against them. 12:30 Eno Sarris: Yup. 12:30 Coochi Frito: Which stadium that’s not ridiculously far away should I visit this summer? (Located in NY). 12:31 Eno Sarris: I’m trying to finish up the Beer Guide, and Baltimore is done. It looks like a decent beer town, with crabs, and a great stadium. Philly cheaper and great beer scene. 12:33 Coochi Frito: Daniel Murphy is insane right now. Are there any numbers to back up his start this far? 12:35 Eno Sarris: He’s just selling out for power, an old bat’s trick. Pulling the heck out of the ball and trading whiffs for homers. I think pitchers will adjust a bit and the average will tank, and then you’re left with a guy that sold out for 14 homers. He’s decent but not top-three at his position. 12:35 Erik: If the increase in velocity brings with it an increase in TJS, will that reverse the trend, either naturally or via some MLB anti-injury initiative? Or will a high level of TJS be the new normal? 12:36 Eno Sarris: MLB is going to do its best in the amateur ranks. TJ is here to stay. Maybe we’ll make some advancement in the surgery, but this is the new reality. 12:37 e: are you worried about liriano? 12:38 Eno Sarris: Yes! For one, he’s always injured. Velocity down last few games. I’m worried. 12:38 Brent: Is Yasmany Tomas showing signs of improvement, if not a complete breakout? 12:38 Eno Sarris: Yes. And I don’t get it. Even meaningful small sample stuff is looking good for him — swing rates, reach rates, gb/fb, pull/oppo stuff. He got more fit, and his approach is better. 12:38 Ty Cobb Salad: Greinke is coming around, right? Better results yesterday. Great article about his slider, BTW! 12:39 Eno Sarris: Yeah I think he’ll be fine. 12:39 Hannah Hochevar: For all the luders and ludettes. From the non-Felix King. These are real (and for sale at auction). 12:39 Eno Sarris: 12:39 Eno Sarris: amazing. 12:40 2-D: I asked Sullivan something similar and your Shane Greene article shed some light on this too, but I think I found a better example and want your take. How does it make sense for a LH curve to have a positive value for horizontal movement? Brooks has Drew Smyly’s curves listed at 2.68 this year. 12:41 Eno Sarris: Read my ‘invent a new pitch’ piece. I think he’s just super over the top, and that can happen when you are. 12:41 Joe: Any chance VV moves to the closer role to preserve his innings? 12:41 Eno Sarris: Interesting. Something may happen, but I bet it’s a long break over the ASG and a phantom injury and an early finish. 12:42 j6takish: Eno, I live in Bells country. They have a new beer out, Oatsmen. It’s a session IPA made with oatmeal. I ordered one last night. It tastes just like every other IPA out on the market 12:42 Eno Sarris: BREAKING NEWS! 12:42 Pourin the Bisquick: Graveman appears to be making a jump yet most projections don’t really like him. should we expect something similar to kyle hendricks the rest of the way or is he a step above that? 12:42 Eno Sarris: I think that’s a decent present comp. Remember, that’s a great return on your investment. 12:43 J: Ken Giles just unlucky right? HRs won’t be a problem for him moving further at least under 1 per 9 right? 12:43 Eno Sarris: Yeah I did finally drop him in an 11-teamer because I have to chase saves, but he’s got good stuff, still. I think he’ll be fine, just maybe not the closer. 12:44 Hannah Hochevar: Oakland OF preference (speed desirable but, overall is fine): Coco “Don’t Call Me Cookie” Crisp or Chris “One Nail in the” Coghlan? 12:44 Eno Sarris: Coghlan. Gives you flexibility if he works out. 12:44 DK: Eno if Curry still isn’t ready for next series are ready to answer the call 12:44 Eno Sarris: Got my ankle up on a stool right now, I’m out 2 weeks at least. 12:44 Duda Abides: Is Mesoraco worthless? 12:44 Eno Sarris: No. 12:44 Joe: U like Pomeranz or Finnegan more? Both seem intriguing on back end of fantasy rotation. 12:45 Eno Sarris: I like Pomeranz park more, so in a redraft, maybe him. But Finnegan in a keeper, he has more pitches. 12:45 BBK: What is the meaning of life? 12:45 Eno Sarris: 12:46 Hank the dog: Bryce Harper has a pretty low BABIP, could this be interpreted as him being unlucky on his BA at least, and could have room to improve there this season? 12:46 Eno Sarris: It’s only low because of all the homers but yeah I guess he could improve. 12:47 Boob: Are you and Aaron Sanchez believer? The strand rate and babip seem a little sus (plus the increasing BBs) but he has been pretty sharp against some good offenses 12:47 Eno Sarris: I believe. He put some weight on and can repeat his delivery better, the change is legit. I see Carlos Martinez. 12:47 greg: Do you watch “High Heat with Chris Russo”? 12:47 Eno Sarris: Only because I have to have MLBN on at all times for my job, basically. 12:47 Nelson: Do fantasy writers such as yourself claim league entry fees as a tax deduction? 12:47 Eno Sarris: Yes but winnings too. 12:48 Mike: Charlie Morton’s increased velocity, 65% GB% and 12% SwStr% intrigue you? 12:48 Eno Sarris: It does, but it’s weird. And he won’t get you any wins. 12:48 Beno Garris: What does a hitter’s soft/med/hard hit percentage tell us this early in the season? For example, if a player was hitting more IFFB and his hard hit % was down 10%. 12:48 Eno Sarris: I wouldn’t look too hard. Next batted ball stat that’s reliable is GB/FB. 12:48 Johnny5Alive: drop koehler for graveman 12:48 Eno Sarris: Yes. 12:48 Zorak: So Story is just Joc Pederson 2.0, right? That K rate is gonna catch up to him eventually. 12:48 Eno Sarris: Yeah but I like Joc. 12:49 Jt: Eno, i thought it was really interesting that you reported the exit velocities on eovaldi. i wondered if in the past we would look at his k/bb and anoint him as a guy ready to break out if the homer “luck” would even out. can you use the exit velo numbers to predict a range of hr/fb for a guy like him? do you only start him in bigger parks going forward or will the exit numbers ultimately doom him no matter what? 12:49 Eno Sarris: Soon we’ll be able to use launch angle and exit velocity to get a better xHR/FB but it’ll always be better for hitters than for pitchers. 12:49 moka: Has Holland’s healthy and strong start increased your tepid forecast for him? Would you have him above any of Graveman, Latos, Cody Anderson or Bassitt? 12:49 Eno Sarris: Above Cody and Latos but not in love. 12:50 Johnny5Alive: are we getting a little carried away on Thor right now? 12:50 Eno Sarris: I’d still take Scherzer and Kershaw, myself. Probably Sale too. 12:51 Pourin the Bisquick: i’ve got burns, conforto, young joc, and mazara. i can only start 2 most days. will burns start enough to hold onto him? is mazara more legit than conforto or young joc? 12:51 Eno Sarris: Just ride the platoon advantage guys. Get more info. Mazara might go down again when Choo comes back. 12:51 moka: So does it look like we all prematurely freaked out over Byung-Ho Park when he’ll actually be an excellent hitter this year? His K rate was 40+% not long ago but it’s already down to 30% so he might be adjusting quickly 12:52 Eno Sarris: Yeah I mean he’s right at his projections already. Don’t know why anyone projecting him for five steals, but whatever. 12:52 BBK: Would you recommend looking at a pitchers GB%+IFFB%, instead of just GB%? 12:52 Eno Sarris: IFFB+K%, since they both outs. But use IFFB*FB which is pop-up%. that’s better. 12:52 Dave: Are there any MiLB parks with pitch f/x data? 12:52 Eno Sarris: Yes. Don’t know which ones! 12:53 Eno Sarris: But I do know some MiLB pFX comes through every once in a while. Might be Futures Game stuff though. 12:53 Danimal: Eno wtf am I supposed to make of Oaklands closer situation, when I saw they used doolittle I figured he was coming up against 2 or 3 lefties so they used him but he wasnt, it was 1 out of 3 lefty hitters. I just dropped him for Madson the day before lol. Was it a rest day for Madson? Whats up with oakland 12:53 Eno Sarris: They just going to pitch whatever makes the most sense. Doo’s stuff is good. 12:53 Johnny5Alive: white was never on any lists. theres been some pretty big names that never made any lists (goldschmidt, for example). is there something about certain players that the prospect folks just dont like? 12:53 Eno Sarris: Well, he was pretty high on one list. 12:53 HappyFunBall: Which ARI 3B-eligible to stash on my bench: Lamb or Tomas? 12:54 Eno Sarris: Lamb higher floor, better discipline, I like him a tad better, even while admitting Tomas might have higher upside if this stuff is all real. 12:54 Uncle Omar: Ditching work today to watch Johnny Cueto! Life is good. Any food recommendations? 12:55 Eno Sarris: In SF? Citizen’s Band hamburgers or fried chicken, or the SoMa street food spot. Or Darwin Cafe for a sandwhich, and then 21A to watch the game. 12:55 Joe: Seems with Iglesias’ inability to keep velo, he would be an ideal closer. So many other intriguing arms that could fill in. Bailey, Lamb, Stephenson, … 12:56 Eno Sarris: Yeah but the Reds need to think more about 2017, IMO. And Iglesias as a starter is way more valuable. 12:56 Zonk: It’s only April, but as far as contention is concerned, too early to call the Twins toast? Because I think they’re toast. 12:56 Eno Sarris: Yeah it doesn’t look good. 12:56 Bryan CA: Giants closer? Law looks a heck of lot better than Casilla or Strickland. 12:56 Eno Sarris: Too far back. Strickland looks fine to me, he’s next in line, and Casilla giving up too many balls in play. 12:56 Tom: Re: Tyler White, how does he post a near 30 K% rate coupled with outstanding O-swing% and F-strike% and ~average overall contact? Regression coming, any idea what his xK% looks like? 12:56 Eno Sarris: I’ll give him 18-20%. 12:57 2-D: Do you like Colome to keep the closer job once Boxberger returns? 12:57 Eno Sarris: I don’t ever trust a Tampa closer. 12:57 Bryan CA: How many more starts can the Giants really give Peavy before kaboom! 12:57 Eno Sarris: They don’t got options unless Heston gets right. 12:57 Sirras One: ROS: Tropeano or Nicasio ROS (K/9 + QS, no W). Let’s pretend Trop gets a permanent spot. 12:57 Eno Sarris: Trop. 12:57 Drew: Hector Neris needs some love right? He’s been dominant this season so far. 12:58 Eno Sarris: Yeah he should be the closer soon. 12:58 CecilFielder: Ran into Kevin Youkilis at the trillium brewery last Friday. that was pretty cool- obviously still lives in boston and loves good beer! 12:58 Eno Sarris: Nice. Trillium so good. 12:58 I’m not worthy: You were one of three staff members that picked Story for NL ROY, and the only one that picked Whitefor AL ROY. Three weeks into the season…you feeling pretty smug yet? 12:59 Eno Sarris: Totally forgot. 1:00 Eno Sarris: OH NO. OH NO! Prince is dead. 1:00 FirstOldTimer: Love your work, Eno. Got a pineapple sculpin waiting for me in the fridge after work today! Traded my Tyler White and Gerardo Parra for his Freddie Freeman and Domingo Santana. But now August’s article and your comment above have me second guessing. Paint me like one of your french girls, Eno! 1:00 Eno Sarris: Domingo a great score. 1:01 Joey: Do you think John Schoop spends the whole year batting 8th or 9th? I like his upside but that limits some of his value? 1:01 Eno Sarris: 140 PA between 1 and 9, so yeah it’s going to cost him some chances. But I don’t think I can move him very far up. 1:01 Byron: How concerned are you about Puig? His O-swing is 44% and he has 4 XBH 3 of which came in his first 3 games and the other was a routine single that he stretched for a double. 1:02 Eno Sarris: I still like him. 1:02 Jon: How do you weigh positional back-ups in relation to overall roster talent? Somebody dropped Howie Kendrick, and I was thinking of dropping Prado or Alexei Ramirez for him, but those are my only back-ups at 3B and SS. Do you even consider your bench depth when there’s a talented player on the wire that doesn’t completely fit? 1:02 Eno Sarris: I don’t consider backups in most leagues. That’s what the wire is for. 1:02 DK: Khris Davis Wtf. Will Sky Dome be the cure this weekend? 1:03 Eno Sarris: He’s swinging way too much. Perhaps trying to impress. Hopefully he can settle down, but he’s upset me. 1:03 Alpha King: Have you seen Liam Hendriks? Thought he was a darkhorse for saves. Just a blip? 1:03 Eno Sarris: Not throwing the slider as much so not getting the whiffs. Don’t know why, though. 1:04 Billy Ball: The next homegrown masher for the A’s will be? 1:04 Eno Sarris: You know, Chapman looks pretty good. 1:04 Jeffrey: There are still a few things that Robert Stephenson has to work on in order to become an effective major league starting pitcher. However, after pitching 2 games in the ML and with the reds in a rebuild, would he be better off learning these things in the ML rather than in Triple-A? 1:04 Eno Sarris: I dunno. He needs to throw the change more, and is he going to do that when all he wants to get this hitter out right now? 1:05 Christopher Archer: Am I hurt? 1:07 Eno Sarris: Just got some quotes from Laurila, I’ll write them up if he doesn’t. Archer thinks it’s just not getting ahead in counts so he can use the slider like he likes, looks like. Pitcher injury factors are split. I think he might be okay. 1:07 Compton: Eno! What are your thoughts on Rosenheck’s league? 1:08 Eno Sarris: I detest it! It’s ‘quickest finger’ waiver wire with rental trades. Needs to be your only league. 1:08 Miketron: Mastroianni isn’t on the 40 man thats why they brought Kepler up. Its still a waste to have him on the bench so much… 1:08 Eno Sarris: Ah there you go. Usually the answer for these sorts of things. 1:08 jon: Does John Lamb (assuming healthy) have the goods to be as good Eickahoff’s been so far? 1:09 Eno Sarris: Yeah but back injuries are bad. I do still like his stuff. 1:09 Young Jeezy: Lamb or Franco ROS? 1:09 Eno Sarris: Franco. 1:09 Mike: Enoooo…had Maine Beer Co’s Zoe this weekend and was mildly disappointed. Mean Uncle Tom was solid, but the distributor was out of the 2 IPAs. Sad face… 1:09 Eno Sarris: It’s only okay. But all their beer is at least okay/solid I think. And the best are really good, which is a tough trick to turn. 1:09 Billy Ill: Soler looked good, now looks bad. I have too many OF – can you name one to drop? Mazara, Conforto, Soler, D. Santana, Myers (and Betts) Thanks. 1:10 Eno Sarris: He’s the dropper there, sadly. I like his walk rate but he’s whiffing so much! 1:10 Greg: What does Tyler White mean for AJ Reed? Assuming he hits, still up/playing regularly after Super 2? 1:10 Eno Sarris: No, there isn’t a ton of room for Reed unless White can play third. 1:11 Nik: Mark Appel still have #3 Potential ? 1:11 Eno Sarris: no. 1:11 2-D: Why are you never eating at the Coliseum again? 1:11 Eno Sarris: Once I got salmonella and puked for a week. This past week I got diahrrea for a week. That’s enough. 1:11 Bob: Odubel Herrera leads baseball in WALKS with 15? What the hell is up with that?! 1:11 Eno Sarris: Good for his team, so far bad for his fantasy value. 1:12 Bork: If you can’t handle my Dickey in April, you don’t deserve my Dickey in August. 1:12 PS: Lion’s Beer Store would be a great bar for NYC Fangraphs meetup. ~16 taps and 300+ bottled beers. 1:12 Eno Sarris Jr.: This is your future third child sending you a message from the future. I’ve overthrown the government and installed a Beerocracy. I also outlawed baseball since it drove you mad in 2020 searching for the “perfect pitch”. 1:12 Eno Sarris: Well done. 1:12 Dave: Is Greinke the best player to talk pitching with? Votto for hitting? 1:12 Eno Sarris: Yes and yes, though I like Donaldson and JD Martinez on the next one too. Righetti and Hudgens on the coaching side. 1:13 Billy: Do you think Pollock comes back this year? 1:13 Eno Sarris: good god. this came at 12:23. I won’t make it today. Pollock injured a spot where he’s been injured before. I bet if he comes back it’s for two or three weeks. 1:13 Crappy Hypothetical: You just pooped your pants in the on-deck circle. It is Game 7 of the World Series and your team has two on with two out and they’re down by one run. You have the hitting talent of Bryce Harper, but your excitement from the infield single that the guy in front of you just ran out caused a lapse of control in your bowels. It is definitely the messy kind of poop. It will begin showing and stinking in five to ten seconds and will undoubtedly get worse. What’s your move? 1:13 Eno Sarris: Swing at the first pitch. 1:14 Justin Verlander: Sup with my 1st inning woes? Been pretty good otherwise. How can I fix this? 1:14 Eno Sarris: Velocity is gone, my man. 1:15 Linus: NEW PARQUET COURTS ALBUM 1:15 Eno Sarris: 1:15 Eno Sarris III: This is your grandson sending a message from the further future. We were able to make baseball legal again, but it is not played by robots. Robots who only run on beer since all fossil fuels have been exhausted so now recreational drinking has been suspended to fuel the nation’s thirst for baseball. 1:15 Eno Sarris: This is the darkest timeline. 1:15 Turbo Sloth: Who comes back first…Darvish or Mccullers 1:15 Eno Sarris: McCullers. 1:15 kris: i really doubt the wild ipa is going to go ‘bad’ in 2 days 1:15 Eno Sarris: Yeah that too lol. 1:15 HappyFunBall: Starting Story when COL is at home, and Semien else … this should work for me in a 12xMixed, yes? 1:16 Eno Sarris: Yes, though not great batting averages. 1:16 iron wolf: Eno: when are the Talking Heads getting together again? JK. If you had to drop Cody Anderson or Rubby DLR in a 16 team league for Owens, which one would you drop? Thx. 1:16 Eno Sarris: Rubby. 1:16 e: hang on to eovaldi or can he go? 1:16 Eno Sarris: Hang 1:16 Matt: What’s your thoughts on Finnegan? He’s got great numbers so far, but the one thing that sticks out to me is all the walks in the almost Cubs no-hitter. 1:16 Eno Sarris: He threw so many changeups that game, and it’s not his best pitch. I like him. 1:17 mtsw: Is there a trade that gets a cromulent starting pitcher to Baltimore that makes sense? 1:17 Eno Sarris: Bundy (plus?) for Teheran? 1:18 Bork: “eh yo stop quoting me assholes ” – Oscar Wilde, probably. 1:19 Blammo: What rolls down stairs, alone or in pairs, rolls over your neighbor’s dog? What’s great for a snack and fits on your back it’s LOG LOG LOG! 1:19 The Man with the Plan: Perfect walk up music for Andrew Benintendi when he reaches the Bigs: Lloyd Bank – Beamer, Benz or Benintendi 1:19 Eno Sarris: Not quite mid-season form. 1:20 Bork: Will your Beer Guide include Toronto? Or is it US only? 1:20 Eno Sarris: Yes it will! 1:20 Zorn: What do you think about Erasmo Ramirez? Nothing seems to faze the guy. 1:20 Eno Sarris: I think Tampa is a great fit for him. What a jolly dude. 1:20 Lucas Giolito: I know Ross is stroking, but Roark seems inconsistent. Do I make it up by the end of June? 1:20 Eno Sarris: Yeah I like him to come up and be important this year. 1:20 Steed Throbnozzle: Avisail….dump or merely get rid of him? 1:21 Eno Sarris: answered for handle. But yeah, I think Avisail headed for vs LHP work only. 1:22 Pourin the Bisquick: cody anderson as good as kendall graveman? can i expect both to be gio this year? 1:22 Eno Sarris: No. Grave > Cody and Gio still > both. 1:22 Mookie Betts: Is my new hideous BB/K ratio here to stay, or will I get this thing under control? 1:22 Eno Sarris: I think he will, actually. It’s just too weird. 1:22 Liam: How come nobody talks about Luis Severino? Heavily hyped by you guys and yet nobody has made any statements on his start and what they’ve seen, yet we hear about the same guys for weeks. 1:23 Eno Sarris: I honestly don’t get a lot of questions about him. I think he’s fine. Long term, I worry a bit about his mechanics, but I think more whiffs are coming, and the grounders are a good floor thing for him. 1:24 Bart: Who would you rather own Rodon or Eickhoff for this season? 1:24 Eno Sarris: Eickhoff. 1:24 dynasty doug: finally tried saison dupont. excellent! then had prairie gold. excellent too! what’s next? 1:24 Eno Sarris: Well, they harder to get, but if you trade… Saison Bernice from Sante Adairius in Santa Cruz, Jester Kings’ El Cedro in Austin. Top top saisons. 1:25 Gary: How long till Tolleson loses his job? He has approximately zero strikeouts. 1:25 Eno Sarris: Been calling for it for a while. 1:25 Mike: I feel like you try to always pick the dark horse to take over saves and it’s rarely right. Do you do this to say, see I knew something no one else did? 1:27 Eno Sarris: I used to have a weekly closer article, and I dispute I’m rarely right. I picked Cingrani in a terrible pen, sure, I should have checked lefties on the roster. Otherwise, I’ve liked Strickland, Zych, Dyson so far this year, and it’s early going. Listen to the podcast and you know my formula, it’s easy, and I think it works: Role first. Velocity and Strikeout rate second because those are the only things linked with closer change. Handedness last because managers pick lefty closers half as much as they should given the population of lefties. 1:28 Eno Sarris: Now, when it comes to starting pitchers, you may have a point. I play a lot of deep leagues and I need to find those diamonds in the rough. But picking the guy that will move from 20-30 into top ten is tough. So I just buy a bunch of shares there. 1:28 Sammy: Who gets tossed from the Cleveland rotation to enable Bauer’s return? 1:28 Eno Sarris: Cody. 1:28 Searage : Has my work turned Juan Nicasio into a starter? 1:28 Eno Sarris: No. Still no changeup, loses velocity and command deep in games. 1:29 Steve: Your Murphy analysis seems…strange? He’s only hit two HRs this year and a ton of singles. Also, his 8 Ks in 56 PA seems pretty solid. 1:29 Eno Sarris: I mean you have to watch the games, too, and notice that going back to about halfway through last year, his pull percentage has skyrocketed. He moved closer to the plate and started pulling for power. But he doesn’t have plus natural power, so that’s why only two homers. 1:30 McTuddles: over/under, my seamus or my anus 1:30 Eno Sarris: I don’t know what a seamus is but that. 1:30 Pourin the Bisquick: i get the yips when pitching bp for my kids 6-8 y/o little league team. i’m consciously trying not to hit them and end up throwing it inside and got a couple the other day. do i need to see a sports psychologist? 1:30 Eno Sarris: Breathe, concentrate on your breathing. Hit the annoying kid. 1:31 hmmm: I feel like you’re turning into a Matthew Berry type. By that I mean, kinda going for the homerunrs as opposed to giving the solid picks. Examples: Semien top 10, Dyson over Tolleson, etc. Use your amazing talents to help us put together safe winning teams, not long shots. 1:31 Eno Sarris: Except that Semien is going to be top ten and Dyson is going to take that job. 1:31 Eno Sarris: Also, don’t quote my bold predictions at me as if you’re supposed to follow those as gospel. 1:32 Eno Sarris: BOLD f’ing predictions. Supposed to look at the 5-10% chance stuff. And I actually still like the two you pointed out lol. The Ozuna one doesn’t look so good. 1:32 David: Jason Grilli…like I’m at a loss, getting late opps, getting K’s, getting hit…I don’t know what do! I wanna drop, but I need those sweet sweet (stupid) saves! 1:32 Eno Sarris: I’m looking at dropping him in most leagues. Below average velocity suddenly, 39 years old, coming off surgery, if he’s not going to have trade value… 1:32 Devin: Thoughts on Derek Law? Giants org still seems high on him, and that breaking ball looks legit (especially in his first two appearances). This could be confirmation bias of a Giants fan watching a bullpen that’s in a bit of disarray though. 1:33 Eno Sarris: I love his stuff, and I know Righetti has been eagerly anticipating all these young guys with velocity, but the way Bochy works, he’ll have to work his way past Strickland to even get in the convo. 1:33 Ben: What’s the deal with Shelby Miller? Fixable? He’s on the wire and given the concern with Liriano, should I make the switch? 1:34 Eno Sarris: Talked to all the AZ beats about this and still don’t know. he’s throwing a splitter now, and it *should* be good, but something isn’t working with it, no whiffs so far this year. He’s not at 94 any more, either. He’s plummeting. Still probably above 75, and so mixed league worthy, but I’m worried about him. There’s a bold prediction that’s going south. 1:35 Boof: Trade Vince Velasquez For Tyler White? 1:35 Eno Sarris: No, I don’t think so. White’s projected power was more like 10-14 and early sample power is not a great thing to bet on. 1:35 Boof: 4/5 Tyler White homers are “Just Enough” per Hittracker 1:35 Eno Sarris: Well there’s something. 1:36 Keith: Pomeranz is like “a good Rich Hill”, what do you mean by that exactly? 1:37 Eno Sarris: Throwing the curve almost half the time, throwing it in the zone to get strikes when they don’t swing, but his fastball goes 92-93 to Hill’s 90, and he can sometimes spot it. 1:38 BBK: Is there a rule preventing a batter from crouching down with his chest between his legs, in an attempt to draw walks? 1:38 Eno Sarris: It’s awfully hard to hit like that! 1:38 Z: 3rd times a charm, right? What Carlos Gomez will we see this year? the 2014 or 2015 version? Possibly somewhere in between? 1:39 Eno Sarris: I’m worried about his health, like the Mets doctors were. I’m thinking .250/15/20 at most. 1:39 Stan: people are sleeping on Adam Conley, Sullivan’s piece a few days ago should have owners scrambling to pick him up 1:39 Eno Sarris: Or me and Sporer talking about him for months, that too. 1:39 Sal M.: Eno, no question I just wanted to say how hard it is when you have a roster full of guys you love that are off to terribly slow starts! d’Arnaud, Miggy, Rendon, J Upton, Granderson and Carlos Santana to name a few. Remind me we’re only 2.5 weeks in haha 1:39 Eno Sarris: Granderson might be droppable but the rest should be good. 1:39 Padilla Eephus: Do you see Peter O’Brien up any time soon to solve the DBacks outfield identity crisis or is it too son? 1:39 Eno Sarris: Can’t play center, can barely play a corner. 1:40 Peter Pan: Why do I keep seeing people talk about Domingo Santana? I look at his numbers and there’s nothing exciting there. 1:40 Eno Sarris: Dripping tools, improved his plate discipline, which was the big deal problem. Breakout coming. 1:40 James: How do you believe the Royals will handle Mike Minor once he’s ready to come off the DL? Do you envision him getting some second-half rotation work? 1:40 Eno Sarris: Think Medlen. 1:40 Joey: Why do homers lower babip? 1:40 Eno Sarris: They aren’t considered in BABIP as a ball in play. 1:41 klof: That Hoof Hearted IPA looks disgusting. When hazy turns into yeasty brown, I’m out. 1:41 Eno Sarris: WHOFARTED 1:41 Marc: Eno whats wrong with Caminero? I cant stand watching him like this 🙁 1:42 Eno Sarris: It’s sad, yes. I still like him some, but not for saves obviously, and the cutter over the splitter seems like a bad choice. 1:42 Chicago Mark: Hello from Chicago Eno. Please rank for me. Eovaldi, Graveman, Pomeranz, , Finnegan 1:42 Eno Sarris: Eo Finn Grave Pom. All really interesting 60-75 guys that have a little bit of juice still. First two have most upside for me, so they go there. 1:43 lloyd: Is Matt Cain’s problem just not having enough endurance built up to last past 4 innings? 1:43 Eno Sarris: He also doesn’t seem to trust his 90 mph fastball. Started first inning yesterday by showing all his secondary pitches, which is weird. 1:44 Johnny5Alive: is kang coming back next week? 1:44 Eno Sarris: I keep seeing mid-May but that makes no sense. He’s playing right now. I think he’s up real soon. 1:44 baseball: Should Strickland throw his sinker (two-seam) or four-seam more? I know he’s throwing the sinker more to lefties to get some movement going away. 1:44 Eno Sarris: His command on the 4s to outside corner to righties is actually v impressive. 1:45 John Braca: Bryce Harper has 20 grade hair. 1:45 Eno Sarris: Hot take there, people seem to like it. It’s big! I like big. 1:45 Halp: How is it possible that some major league pitcher have never tried to thrown pitch types before? Like how has a guy never tried out messing around with a cutter or curve before? 1:46 Eno Sarris: I’d be trying everything. But they have the pressure to perform and get to the bigs, so they might not try new things until they struggle. 1:46 Sirras One: Speaking of Dark Horses for saves, is Caleb Cotham a realistic replacement in Cinci? 1:46 Eno Sarris: I’m taking Blake Wood now. Cotham blew a big chance. 1:46 Ol Sea Capn : Should Wainwright be my jam or is he toast? I traded him in a keeper for a reliver and a uber cheap finnegan. 1:47 Eno Sarris: I would do that trade, yes. 1:47 Halp: when eno pushes an insulting comment into chat box and reply takes a few minutes. 1:47 Mike: When it comes to closers being chosen though, a lot of your suggestions don’t get the nod. Strickland, may end up the closer but not until two other guys blow it. When guys ask for suggestions, my guess is the want the guy who will get it next. 1:47 Eno Sarris: Strickland *is* next. 1:48 MarlinTheWizard: Would you recommend against owning Yelich, Stanton and Ozuna in a fantasy league? Seems like putting too many eggs in one offense. 1:48 Eno Sarris: More a problem in H2H. 1:48 MJ: Will Trevor May take over the Twinkie closer role and who do you like more going forward getting saves…..May or Lowe (Det)? 1:48 Eno Sarris: The problem with May is that Jepsen is good and Perkins isn’t out for the year yet. Lowe is closer. 1:48 FREEDOME: EVERYONE POST LUDES IN THE POST COMMENTS. ENO CAN’T CENSOR US THEN! 1:48 Bad News: Motherfucking Prince is dead, and all you bitchtits can talk about is baseball. Oh, the humanity!!! 1:48 Ben: For the Mike who asked about breweries between Cleveland and Charlotte – Athens, OH has a couple. Jackie O’s esp. good 1:49 Eno Sarris: Jackie O’s! 1:49 hey duder: To follow up on the bold predictions comment earlier: I’m with you, Eno, that readers should recognize bold predictions for what they are. That said, it’d be helpful if next year you guys explicitly stated the percentage chance you were aiming for with the bold predictions (e.g., 25% of these will be correct, or this has a 25% chance of occurring). That way we know how bold you think they are. 1:49 Eno Sarris: Interesting idea. Maybe I write an intro to the series and set the tone. 1:51 CecilFielder: can we get an Instagraphs post everytime a rate stat stabilizes? just giving us a heads up like “okay guys now hr/fb% is stabilized and relatively meaningful!” 1:51 Eno Sarris: Haha love it. 1:51 longrod von hugendong: if O’Brien doesn’t fill in the OF for AZ, will Brito be back up after some consistent ABs in AAA? 1:51 Eno Sarris: Yes. Brito back up soon. The move was just to get some pitching in there for a bit. 1:52 Matt: Eno, as a writer for a site like Fangraphs, how can you continue to play in so many fantasy leagues that still use batting average? Isn’t it time for a sea change on that front? 1:52 Eno Sarris: It’s a game. You set the rules, I try to win. 1:52 Horn Please ThankYou: Am I crazy to think the Altherr (injury aside) has been almost totally overlooked? The guy spent all of last season with only a 16% K rate, and most projections have him on a 20/20 pace despite being effectively a rookie… 1:52 Eno Sarris: he’s a decent stash but the K% should go up. 1:52 George: I mean, answering every Tyler White question ever asked is cool. But, there are other players playing baseball. Can we get a thought on Aaron Blair? 1:53 Eno Sarris: I mean he’s good but he’s no Tyler White. I thought Blair was a to-contact ground-ball boring guy, but then he’s striking everyone out this year. I’m interested to see his stuff this year. 1:53 The Big Dipper: Michael Pineda is the best pitcher in….ah screw it I give up! 1:54 Eno Sarris: When we started this argument, it was about Harvey vs Pineda… 1:54 Obvious: Searage can’t fix everyone, otherwise everyone he’s worked with would have been better. 1:54 Eno Sarris: Couldn’t fix my homeboy and catnip Allen Webster. 1:54 Horn Please ThankYou: Eno – you’re down on Soler because he K’s too much, but he’s floating right up there on the exit velocity and batted ball distance leaderboards with your boy Domingo, and 24% isn’t THAT bad. The homers are coming. 1:55 Eno Sarris: Yeah I’ve loved Soler before too, and he’s somewhat similar actually. I shouldn’t turn on my dude, I guess. But it’s hard to hold a righty with a 17% swinging strike rate on a semi-crowded team, especially in redraft leagues. 1:55 Jung-Ho: Mid-may is literally against the rules. Can’t be on a rehab stint more than 20 days. I’ll be up May 7 at the latest. 1:56 Eno Sarris: Well I guess I saw early May and I’m saying late April so we talking hairs here. 1:56 Pourin the Bisquick: do you enjoy the personality cult of maddon or find it to be a bit much? i enjoy that he keeps it loose and interesting, but this guy i know hates everything about it. 1:57 Eno Sarris: I mean I enjoy him, and it was hilarious to be at a spring training facility where there was a live DJ who transitioned into Highway to Hell on a live guitar, but yes, there was an element of ‘wow this is trying a bit hard, no?’ 1:57 Caleb Cotham: Blew my chance? I haven’t allowed a run yet! 1:58 Eno Sarris: My bad, I thought he was part of the last two blowups. Instead it was Wood that gave up the runs. Wood has more velocity and *should* strike out more batters, though. It’s Wood or Cotham and maybe it’s a pass on all of them. 2:00 hey: You weren’t bold when you said Rodon could take the next step forward to a top tier pitcher. Now you’d rather own a deep league SP? 2:00 Eno Sarris: Man, I must have misunderstood some question here. Rodon’s command improvement seems to have been a mirage but I’m not completely out. 2:01 Johnny5Alive: you know, when he was young, i thought wright was a sure-fire hall of famer… now with the injuries and age, does he have enough to make it? i know most folks dont care about the hall, but it would be nice to finally have a home-grown mets position player in there. 2:01 Eno Sarris: I agree and I’m not sure. He won’t have the gaudy stats and longevity now in question. 2:01 Allen Webster: I never gave Searage a chance to fix me, homeslice! I bolted for Asia before I even met Ray! 2:01 Eno Sarris: Is that true? Pirates claimed him, I assumed they had a chance to meet at least. 2:01 Obvious: Searage had James McDonald too. 2:02 Eno Sarris: Hah. 2:02 Eno Sarris: Oh man, two hour chat. Gotta go work. It’s been fun, mostly!