Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 5/25/17

1:31
Eno Sarris: Los Angeles come see Junior Boys with me https://oct.co/events/october-brings-junior-boys-globe-los-angeles

12:01
ChiSox: Is White Sox trade value disappearing? Quintana, Nate Jones, Melky, Frazier…

12:01
Eno Sarris: I don’t know if Frazier’s is affected so much by a bad batting average, he is who he is. Q could recover it with a good stretch, Melky probably never had any. Jones is too bad but they have him signed for a while so cheap that it’s nbd.

12:02
Eric: Start Maeda tonight against the Cards, or wait to see how he looks coming off the DL?

12:02
Eno Sarris: I want to see more.

12:03
JD15: Whats up with Edwin Diaz? Any chance Pazos holds the job or is it just temporary?

12:04
Eno Sarris: I think Diaz just needs more innings, at worst a little mechanical adjustment. Velo still there, swinging strikes, just a little around the side of the ball and missing left to right on the zone.

12:04
Matt: Have we come to a consensus of whether or not Charlie Morton is a good pitcher now? Asking for a friend….

12:05
Eno Sarris: I think the splitter just isn’t the platoon split killer that he’d need to be elite. He’s good, and then a lefty heavy team will put a hurt on him every once in a while.

12:05
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Will Conforto slow down at all?

12:05
Eno Sarris: I’m in love.

12:05
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: So will you take it like Brandon Guyer or are you hitting the deck as soon as you see something inside?

Grant
1:08
For a season in the major leagues, who has the highest wrc+ out of Fangraphs writers?
Dave Cameron
1:09
Eno, because there are probably more MLB pitchers who want to throw at him than anyone else on staff, so he’ll get that sweet HBP bump.

12:06
Eno Sarris: Weird, it’s the hitters who hate me more, usually. I’d say I’d give up the worst exit velo and a few pitchers would lay it in there for me Waino style actually.

12:06
DB: Someone dropped Edwin Diaz in my 12 team NFBC. You think he settles back into the role and what % FAAB is a reasonable bid on him?

12:07
Eno Sarris: I would absolutely drop 6% on him right now. I don’t think it’ll take more to get a reliever that’s not closing, and he’s one of the better speculation pickups right now.

12:07
The Hills!: Who chats on Thursdays?…(boom, boom, boomboomboom)…ENO CHATS ON THURRRRRSDAYS!

12:07
Eno Sarris: Is this to the tune of “WHO’S HOUSE”

12:07
Mmm Bacon: Did you see Joey Votto heckling a heckler? Is there a more fun guy in baseball than Votto? What will it take to get him out of Cincy and somewhere like NY where the national spotlight may increase fan appreciation for the marvel he is?

12:08
Eno Sarris: Earlier that day he asked Edwin to go to dinner with him by writing a note in the dirt in front of the Indians’ dugout.

12:08
Eric: Have you changed your opinion on Bour after his torrid couple of weeks? Or is this just a hot streak?

12:09
Eno Sarris: Always thought Bour could hit 30, be he hits some slow points and ends up around 32. Not like he’s hitting a ton more fly balls or anything.

12:09
Waka: Let’s say Wood gets bombed by the Cubs tomorrow…. do they drop him from the rotation? Dave Roberts is pissing me off

12:10
Eno Sarris: You mad that Ryu might be out? Ryu throwing like 87… they have like 7 worthy major league starters, when they all healthy something has to give (or go to the DL with a phantom injury).

12:11
Bob: What do you expect of Aaron Nola ROS?

12:11
Eno Sarris: mid to low threes ERA, good WHIP, strikeout per inning, not a ton of wins.

12:11
Nihilist Eno: I love beer, but why does it matter if it can’t help us escape the inevitable claws of death?

12:11
Eno Sarris: Eat Arby’s.

12:11
Jake: Are you starting Verlander tonight?

12:11
Eno Sarris: Yes.

12:11
Michael Conforto: Aaron Judge isn’t the SLG-iest OF in NYC any more. Who do I have to talk to about getting a themed seating area? Maybe I need a real nickname first…

12:12
Eno Sarris: Unfortunately my ConfortOH is not catching on.

12:12
Jackson: Greg Bird should be back sometime in early to mid June. Is he a 30 HR player in a full season? Really like his swing.

12:12
Eno Sarris: I think so yes. Maybe not a great average, but great OBP and SLG.

12:12
Eno Sarris: Running out of time to buy low in a dynasty.

12:12
Jack: Which closer situations are you monitoring?

12:13
Eno Sarris: Can’t help but watch Arizona, even though the backup options don’t tickle my titties. Seattle seems up in the air. Trevor Rosenthal is the best pickup for saves spec in baseball. tommy Kahnle interesting, still think Nats trade for a closer.

12:13
Sammy: Am I starting Samardzilla against the Cubs this afternoon? Did he mention whether he plans to have a good start?

12:14
Eno Sarris: I like him. Day games at Wrigley are a little riskty, but I like him.

12:14
Lots of Eggs: Tell me Trevor Story will be ok…?

12:14
Eno Sarris: Watch his launch angle. Needs to bring it down closer to 20 or he’ll be a popup king.

12:14
JRK: what do you like and not like so far from Bellinger

12:15
Eno Sarris: Want a smidge fewer strikeouts, but I think that will come. He’s so young that he’s pre-peak for strikeout rate. Otherwise he’s dreamy af.

12:15
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: As a sammich connoisseur, how does a wrap rank on your preference list? I ask the important questions here.

12:16
Eno Sarris: Fairly low. I’ll take a buffalo chicken, tomato, lettuce, ranch type wrap on the run sometimes. And burritos are awesome but no I don’t consider a burrito a sandwich and I don’t care why or if you do!

12:16
Linus: Rich Hill looks old as the hills…

12:17
Eno Sarris: Minus minus fastball command, never had that. I’ll still own but I might sit for a bit.

12:17
DB: Any chance old man Scioscia puts Huston Street back in the closer role when he’s done his rehab next week?

12:17
Eno Sarris: Man I can’t believe he will.

12:17
Wes: Would having D. Travis, DJ Lem make you cool with trading Odor in a keep-5 12’er?

12:17
Eno Sarris: Yes.

12:18
Eno Sarris: He’s another one that’s too much in the air.

12:18
wizard: For all those wondering how long the “Buxton situation can last before he’s sent down”–defense aside, he’s hitting .262/.360 w/ 2HR, 5SB over the past 30 days. The window I see closing is not his time in the majors; it

12:18
wizard: (…it’s the time remaining to pick up Buxton in fantasy)

12:18
Eno Sarris: I might go after him in dynasty leagues but in the short term I think he’s super streaky and likely to still end the season with a .230 batting average.

12:19
another bad dynasty manager: Got two choices to start tomorrow and both look bad by wOBA and wRC+. Gausman vs. Astros & Boyd vs. White Sox. Need only 6 IPs to make the minimum 40, so I can drop one start. QS are one of the cats in a 7 x 7 AL-only league. Thx!

12:19
Eno Sarris: Give Boyd a chance.

12:19
Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler: When do you think Cotton gets another crack at the rotation? Saw he had a good game last time out. Also, any major concerns with Jose Ramirez? Keep seeing the Tribe score runs and he’s throwing up zeros (but on the wrong side of the ball)?

12:20
Eno Sarris: Watch the Hahn injury, I guess. Cotton’s got to be the sixth starter with Mengden getting his sea legs back.

12:22
Eno Sarris: as for Ramirez… Ramirez has a great .283/.350/.464 expected line on xStats and I expect him to play to that. Just a fallow portion of the schedule for him. The Indians have faced some of the toughest pitchers in baseball, they were third or fourth in that metric.

12:22
Andrew: If a hot dog is a sandwich, so is a quesadilla

12:22
Eno Sarris: Also: no.

12:22
The Kyd: Would you say yes to Conforto and Wood for my Pollock and Knebel? I need help everywhere. I hesitate because I have Pollock for very cheap in a keeper and I love him so, so much.

12:22
Eno Sarris: Steals are hard to find but conforto is the best long term asset in this deal.

12:23
Erik: Yonder Alonso has been dropped in a few leagues after a small slump and day-to-day injury. Is he still a must-own in 12-teamers, or are you down on him a bit?

12:23
Eno Sarris: Probably a true talent .270/25 hitter right now.

12:23
Tornado: New to baseball advanced stats. Question about Lindor. His ISO is really high. However it is supported by Barrels. HR/FB% also seems not too high given that he flirted with that kind of mark in his rookie year. xStats show he should have 12 HR and xBACON, xWOBA all seem to support his power improvements. Basically, should I be treating him like a .300, 15 HR hitter, or a .290, 25 HR hitter? In between? Are we seeing a young player taking the next step or is this newfound power a mirage?

12:23
Eno Sarris: Believe in the power! I might split the difference a little but this is happening.

12:24
another bad dynasty manager: What’s wrong with Gausman anyway? He’s come back to his splitter (high whiff rates last year) after getting poor results with the slider in April.

12:24
Eno Sarris: Just a two pitch pitcher constantly fiddling with a third pitch. I think the curve is the one, don’t know why he went away from that.

12:25
Marwin Gonzales- Power Hitter: How long can you keep running Beltran out there in the top half of the order?

12:25
Eno Sarris: Move him down, fine, but I don’t think he’s done.

12:25
Sebastian: Can you please tell Christian Yelich to lift? Seems like he could be great rather than just very good.

12:25
Eno Sarris: He’s tired of talking about it.

12:26
Big Tuna: Are we believing in the Sonny Gray resurgence?

12:28
Eno Sarris: Curve certainly seems back. Weirdly, the systems all called his breaker a slider in the last one. Maybe he’s just going to throw his curve 85 and not worry about the third pitch so much. Might work. I still think he lacks a third pitch and doesn’t have the ceiling his past stats suggest he does.

12:28
ConorCant: Just wanted to let the dungeon master know he tickles me everytime his post comes up… uhhhh

12:28
¡BERRIOS!: Let the rhythm take you over, Berrios! Te quiero amor mio. ¡Te quierooooo!

12:28
CamdenWarehouse: I object (see what I did there) to the Judge’s Chambers. Not because it’s not classy or whatever nonsense, but because of the execution. They made it look like a jury box when they were shooting for judge’s bench and calling it the chambers, which is nothing like what they actually wanted.

12:28
Eno Sarris: well there you go.

12:28
Jeb: Adam Frazier just rakes. What are your thoughts on him?

12:29
Eno Sarris: Not saying they swing the same way but I bet the stats end up very similar: Good Melky. Which, at MI if you’re lucky to have it, is p good, maybe v good.

12:29
Trixie: Is Brad Hand worth a top 100 prospect in return?

12:29
Eno Sarris: Yeah but not top 50.

12:29
Eno Sarris: unless you mean real life, in which case yeah he might get a Miller-lite return.

12:30
Eno Sarris: MILLER LITE

12:30
Fourseam: In one of your previous chats, you mentioned this is the year to sell Miggy. Could you expand on that? His xStats look very good once again this year. is it just the heightened injury risk with age?

12:30
Eno Sarris: Heightened everything risk with age, yeah.

12:31
Reginald Denton III: I’m about to give up on Addison Russell. Would you even try to talk me off the ledge at this point?

12:31
Eno Sarris: Maybe in a redraft, but in keeper I like that he’s got the best contact and strikeout rates of his career. He needs to put that together with his power rates of old, which might happen… next year.

12:31
Ryan: Cherish the Junior Boys, for soon they will become Junior Men.

12:31
Sand Wedge: Let me ask you something…when was the last time you made a sandwich?
Have you ever made a sandwich before breakfast? Have you ever made a sandwich while watching the late late show? Have you ever made a sandwich in the back seat of a car?

12:32
mwvohio: I was going to ask you a baseball question but Jessica Alba started moving in that video and now I have no idea what I was going to ask you. Was that your plan Eno? Well played Sir.

12:32
Eno Sarris: phew.

12:32
Ryan: Some of the advance stats suggest that Lance Lynn is due for regression, and I thought it might come against the Dodgers and Rockies this week, but he just keeps chugging along. I’ve been trying to move him, but should I reconsider? What gives?

12:34
Eno Sarris: There’s something to the guys that have like three or four different fastballs, I guess the word is command. I like him more than I “should” and he just doesn’t have great trade value.

12:34
Sung Min Kim: Pitchfork acts you’re looking forward to?

12:34
Eno Sarris: I’ve seen both before, but LCD and ATCQ is a pretty mean duo as headliners.

12:34
Grant: Should I stash Jon Gray or Nate Karns in my empty DL slot?

12:34
Eno Sarris: Gray, more upside.

12:35
Dave: Will this be the year Brandon Belt hits 30 home runs?

12:35
Eno Sarris: I don’t think he’ll ever hit 30 in SF.

12:35
Adam: Would you suggest learning SQL or R first for a college student interested in a career in baseball ops?

12:36
Eno Sarris: Lame answer, but both? SQL is a basic stepping stone, but if you want to skip it, R is more powerful.

12:36
Eno Sarris: Adam Frazier home run! Bet on hit tool.

12:36
Eno Sarris:

12:36
Adam: When searching for exit velocity on BaseballSavant, do you have to change the “sort” field from “Pitches” to “Avg. Exit Velocity”

12:37
Eno Sarris: Yes.

12:37
Rich: Is there any regular bullpen arm that you felt deserved one last shot at starting? I kind of feel that way about Shane Greene.

12:37
Eno Sarris: Oh my Chase Whitley I’ll never quit you.

12:37
Buck S: Do you think Brad is Brach on track?

12:37
Eno Sarris: brachsolutely

12:37
Donny: Joe Ross?

12:37
Eno Sarris: Sure.

12:38
PTBNL: What, in your opinion, is the nastiest pitch in the MLB right now?

12:38
Eno Sarris: McCullers’ thing?

12:38
Mark: What starts do you avoid Shoemaker in?

12:38
Eno Sarris: Homer-happy parks?

12:38
Sam: Jordan Montgomery making strides or are the Royals really this bad?

12:38
Eno Sarris: More sliders, fewer fastballs, me likey.

12:38
BREAKING NEWS: Corduroy pillows cause headlines!

12:38
forever it:

12:39
Paulie Walnuts: Could you see Chad Pinder being a competent CF? Is this something the A’s should try?

12:39
Eno Sarris: Good idea except… maybe try/trade Semien first? Gotta take long view with that roster.

12:40
Chicago Cardinal: Edwin from earlier was encarnacion

12:41
Eno Sarris: Oh did I give a Diaz answer to Edwing? Park factors, a few too many ground balls… Should be hitting for better average, but may only hit 32 or so homers this year.

12:42
Hopeless in Houston: I want to tell people in my league to read articles on Fangraphs so they’ll agree to the trades I offer. However, I don’t want them to gain any long-term competitive benefits. Not really a question I guess, just wish things worked exactly the way I want them to.

12:42
Eno Sarris: A playlist of FanGraphs pieces, carefully curated to remove certain pieces .

12:42
Michael Fulmer: Chances he ends season as most valuable pitcher for the Detroit Striped Cats?

12:43
Eno Sarris: I’ve been a fan. Elite changeups don’t always correlate well with strikeout rates in my research, but I bet they create a lot of weak contact.

12:43
Tradsies: Do you see a big difference in a combo of I Happ/Jansen vs. Zimmer/C Allen

12:43
Eno Sarris: Rather have the first.

12:43
Brendan: Sale’s K/BB the first time through the order is 46. Is that good?

12:43
Eno Sarris: It’s aight.

12:44
Guest: You starting Godley tomorrow vs. the Brewers? He didn’t look so great in his last start (just 1 strikeout)

12:44
Eno Sarris: I think this is a good one to sit him and watch.

12:44
Kris: Hand hold the SD job until he becomes the Nationals closer?

12:44
Eno Sarris: There’s a good other name for Nats.

12:44
Hannah Hochevar: Last week I asked you about Matt Boyd, and you said you liked his arm slot and had a piece coming on him, but since then I’ve seen no pieces and lots of bad pitching. What gives?

12:45
Eno Sarris: Usually want to write a piece on the day he pitches, so I’m guessing the schedule didn’t work out. He did say that his arm slot differentiated his breaking balls better, which I see. He’s also not a great fastbll guy.

12:46
Michael Bolton: How can we be lovers if we can’t be friends? Also, do you like Schebel? Think he’s this year’s Duvall?

12:46
Eno Sarris: Yes, he’s a good exit velo guy with iffy plate discipline.

12:46
bawfuls: Is Kershaw’s slider officially “fixed” now? Seems crazy that it could be broken for months and then suddenly he got it back mid-game.

12:46
Eno Sarris: Yeah look at the movement for the last few games and the drop is back. Must have done something to it.

12:46
Matthew: Votto’s line about lineup protection is the best.

12:47
Eno Sarris: Who’s going to protect me? Babe Ruth?

12:47
Conforto: What are my comps? Any concern I fall off similar to last year?

12:48
Eno Sarris: He was injured last year. As for comps, MUSIC ANSWER

12:50
Eno Sarris: Seriously, power to all fields, good plate discipline, lefty who’s got good D in youth at least? Like a lefty Braun?

12:50
Eno Sarris: Skinny Fielder?

12:51
Rusty: Jose Berrios throwing that 98 Kerry Wood stuff.

12:51
Eno Sarris: Something about that curve is sexy and also a bit scary, like it goes right into a bat path sometimes. I’m in, for sure, at least where it won’t take a ton of resources to get him.

12:51
ChicagoCardinal: Most of the guys in my leagues have gotten too smart for the old 2-for-1. What is the best way to trade depth and get the best player back? 2-for-2 where I get the best and worst player? Expand to blockbuster status?

12:52
Eno Sarris: Two for twos can still work. A guy that you might drop that they won’t.

12:52
josh: my friend threw a house party and had bud, corona, carlsberg. how should i shame him

12:52
Eno Sarris: always show up with beer going forward.

12:53
Eno Sarris: Oh good I’m at 12:12

12:53
Adam: Would you deal away an $18 Sano for a $6 Fulmer?

12:53
Eno Sarris: No, and I love Fulmer.

12:54
Guest: I’m not expecting anything close to a 5 WAR season but is Abreu closer to capturing the magic of that first year than the last few? Less strike outs, more power, best soft/hard hit ratio of his career, fly balls up while pop ups substantially down…

12:54
Eno Sarris: Yeah and the best part is that this means that he’s figured out something on the inside pitch. I’ve seen him turn and burn some of those.

12:54
marc: Are you buying what JC Ramirez is selling?

12:54
Eno Sarris: Yes, as a pickup and underrated buy high, but not necessarily next year.

12:55
Eno Sarris: (Still has minus minus command)

12:55
Lars: I want to sell Dylan Bundy but I feel like my league is savvy and no one is buying. He’s not a drop right? More a guy you sit in bad matchups?

12:55
Eno Sarris: Man sometimes you try to sell Keuchel all offseason, everyone sees you coming, you keep him and you’re happy. Not that this happened to me or anything.

12:56
Laroo: G Polanco — 20/20 season, over/under?

12:56
Eno Sarris: Under over. But he can get that power back, he just needs to not do whatever he’s doing now.

12:56
Anon: Who uses tickle my titties in a baseball chat?

12:56
Eno Sarris: Me, apparently.

12:56
Gentry: Have you been able to get a handle on the pitch movement measurements? If so is there anything interesting to report on Matt Harvey? He’s throwing the slider really hard but i wonder if it’s moving much? Thanks.

12:57
Eno Sarris: He’s throwing into the middle of the zone because he has poor command and he doesn’t quite have the velo and stuff he used to. Movement is mostly inversely related to velocity. Also, every movement stat in Cincy is F’ed up. FUBAR.

12:58
Sylvio Dante: Just got a bottle of Brooklyn brewing bottle reconditioned stout. Aged in barrels flat and then re-conditioned in the bottle with champagne yeast. So stoked for it…

12:58
Eno Sarris: Weird!

12:58
Eno Sarris: Not that you’re stoked.

12:58
bosoxforlife: Can the Twins actually contend with Santana and Berrios both doing Pedro impressions and Sano filling the Big Papi role?

12:59
Eno Sarris: Lot closer to competitiveness than some thought, huh? I wish they had a couple more arms coming, but maybe they can get lucky.

12:59
dooooodman: What is the best most consistent brewery and why is it Modern Times?

12:59
Eno Sarris: Modern Times and yes.

1:00
Eno Sarris: True story: I trade beer and there’s always an MT or three in the box leaving my house.

1:00
#BanTheWave: Archie Bradley doesn’t tickle your titties?

1:00
Eno Sarris: A little, but don’t tell him.

1:00
Salazar: Wait. Is that Votto/EE story about dinner true??

1:00
Eno Sarris: I think so? Saw a picture, supposed it could have been doctored.

1:01
DTH: what is the best sandwich in the Bay Area that doesn’t involve the evil and disgusting tomato? bonus points if I can drink a tasty beer while I eat it

1:01
Eno Sarris: Get a sandwich at Darwin Cafe and a bit of a hoof to Cellarmaker. Or just get a damn sausage at Rosamunde’s and walk next door to Toronado’s!

1:03
5 Run Homer: Hey. Sublime is cool. I don’t have a baseball question I just like Sublime

1:03
Eno Sarris: I don’t even care if your’e joking. I would have been at this show if it had happened two years later. dammit.

1:03
Mrs. Roger. Dorn.: Which team has the fewest pre-peak players in its core?

1:04
Eno Sarris: San Francisco? Detroit?

1:04
doooodman: I dig this song from them but you got me to check out more of their stuff.

1:04
Wraps: If burritos were sandwiches, wouldn’t folded pizza have a claim? Where does the insanity end?

1:04
Eno Sarris: Dogs with cats.

1:04
Burrito Ain’t No Sandwich: GET OFF MY LAWN!

1:04
Party Planner: I have this idea for a BLT party. A 5 hour party where every half hour the attendants get a sampling of variation on the BLT (and a shot of whiskey). Is this brilliant? What’s the best bread for a BLT?

1:04
Eno Sarris: Sourdough? beer for me.

1:05
kevinthecomic: according to chemistry, alcohol IS a solution

1:05
doooodman: I might see junior boys because of you!

1:05
Richie: You need an exclamation point in there: ConfortOHH!!

1:05
OddBall Herrera: Mazara has 5 hits against lefties so far, Kepler has 6. Either of these guys avoid becoming platoon players long term?

1:05
Eno Sarris: Mazara i like more overall and I think he can fix it eventually.

1:05
johnny5alive: Terry Collins Fired Pool. I have June 3

1:05
Eno Sarris: I usually think firing the manager is eyewash but

1:06
Kyle: With the likely DL stint for Hahn, do you think Cotton should get another shot in the rotation? That change-up is too good to still be in the minors.

1:06
Eno Sarris: It’s the natural decision.

1:06
Dustin Pedroia: I only hit singles now. Have I entered the end stage of my career?

1:06
Eno Sarris: I didn’t think that power would age well. Watched him in BP and he was launching balls, hitting them super hard, and they landed on the warning track.

1:07
Eno Sarris: that’s not like definitive or anything, but along with the way he was thought of coming up..

1:07
Flick: Why does Lamb ever start against LHP?

1:07
Eno Sarris: Not on my fake teams.

1:07
Mervin: One thing that really steams my broccoli is when some FG reader goes over the course of the week goes into every single dang chat and asks the same darn question.

1:08
Eno Sarris: We need to capture this anger and actually steam broccoli with it.

1:08
I’ve lost my will…TO BEER!: Ever have a beer so uninspiring that it makes you question your will to continue drinking beer? Me neither just kidding lol ok bye

1:08
John: Bryce Harper just tried to bunt with Werth on first. SMH

1:08
Matt: Can Amed Rosario have a Trea Turner like impact?

1:08
Eno Sarris: Don’t think he has the same speed. I think Lindor with a little less power would be the ceiling.

1:08
yayayaya: This year I drafted Tanaka, Maeda, Hill, Lackey who last year had mid-3 ERA or lower, and this year they all have a 4.80 ERA or above. I thought they were safe picks. HOW COULD I HAVE BEEN SO WRONG

1:09
Eno Sarris: Interesting: they’re all old.

1:09
Joey: As a notable fantasy baseball writer, do you ever sit on an article or on sharing particular insights until you have had a chance to capitalize on market inefficiencies?

1:09
Eno Sarris: Absolutely time your poops. Get the most out of them.

1:09
Hannah Hochevar: Watch the gif of Berrios k’ing Trumbo yesterday. Total video game action.

1:10
Eno Sarris: Same curve spanked as it drifted not a few inches more into the plate by… another Oriole, forget who.

1:10
Zock Jr.: Eno, is there a good place to look for information on a starter’s location on the rubber? Porcello looked REALLY far over toward first base in his last start and I’m trying to find data. Thanks!

1:10
Eno Sarris: Look at horizontal release point on Brooks.

1:10
Mike: Any metrics that explain Ervin Santana’s success? Going back to 2nd half last year, ERA looks well below FIP (150ish IP).

1:10
Eno Sarris: He finally trusting that change since Atlanta and that’s good enough.

1:10
Eric: How big is the difference between Bour and Alonso ROS?

1:11
Eno Sarris: I believe in Bour’s natural power more, but if you can get a lot more for him, it’s close enough that I could see trading the marlin.

1:11
Anon: Are there gay players in the league currently? All reporters eould respect a players privacy if he asked for it, right?

1:12
Eno Sarris: I don’t know of any, but I would do that, yes, and I do think there are some.

1:12
Homer Simpson: mmm… xBACON

1:12
Splitter Throwing Lefty One Out: Codename: SPLOOGY

1:12
Mmm Bacon: Where can I go to see xStats?

1:12
Eno Sarris: xStats.org

1:12
Moltar: Is this the end of the line for Terry Collins or does he has some kind of kompromat on Jeffy Wilpon?

1:13
Eno Sarris: Actually think Sandy loves him. Military style men. Problem is, that’s a silly play for today’s athletes. I saw it with Gibson in Arizona. Lost the room with all the rules, the yelling.

1:13
Eno Sarris: Well Gibby didn’t really yell, but Terry does a bit.

1:13
Barb Lahey: addison russell = andrelton simmons? can we even hope for that much at this point?

1:14
Eno Sarris: I think more Jhonny Peralta.

1:14
Eno Sarris: with good D

1:15
Dennis: I’m in a 20 team – 6×6 (K/BB), 30 active roster, DEEP dynasty league. What would you suggest I bid on Lamet tonight? Thanks!

1:16
Eno Sarris: Good strikeout rates, good velocity, good changeup, 11-16%? Maybe push it past 20, but a quarter on one pitcher with not much of a track record…

1:16
Eno Sarris: Might have bad command too.

1:16
xxersrasee: Core Dickerson, I believed in you for so long, but I finally had to let you go, and now you’re doing this to me? This is a bad breakup. I don’t know if I can recover.

1:16
Eno Sarris: Another one that I lucked into because nobody else wanted him.

1:16
njs: fyi – the national hot dog and sausage council ruled in 2015 that hot dog is not a sandwich.

1:17
Snarfle: Re: sandwich thing. So, I’m a salad guy. I have a history with salads. There’s an equally nuanced debate about what defines a salad, and yes, you can go berserk with the “well that means tomato sauce is a salad” stuff. But we can also be reasonable. We can use the Supreme Court porn reasoning of “I know it when I see it.” A quesadilla and a grilled cheese–yes, we can say these are basically the same and should be in the same category, but do we want to live in that world? This is a choice we have. We can defy cold logic and defiantly draw lines around the concept of sandwich based on the labels we arbitrarily assigned to things at some point decades ago.

1:17
Oddball Herrera: Have you seen Willie Calhoun’s number in AAA? 22 year old hitting for power and average and running a 10% k rate? And now he’s started stealing bases too…praying he gets traded sooner than later to a team that can/will play him

1:18
Eno Sarris: Loved watching him in the AFL. Bad body, brick hands, can hit.

1:18
Durr: How sustainable is the Rockies’ success? I like Marquez and Hoffman, but Freeland and Senzatela look like guys you can sqaure up easily and Senza especially hasn’t thrown strikes recently.

1:18
Eno Sarris: But at least they have a few of those guys and can cycle through them while Gray is out.

1:18
Kurtziepoo: Thoughts on Lisalverto Bonilla? Just scouting Pf/x and it looks like he may have some great offspeed offerings, but be the classic bad fastball / bad command trap.

1:19
Eno Sarris: Yeah he showed up forever as a great changeup in my queries but I can’t jump at it. Maybe if he didn’t throw his fastball at all…

1:19
Kyle: Your job seems much less stressful than mine. Is this accurate? (Construction Super)

1:20
Eno Sarris: Probably, but there’s the heartburn of a crashing website, paired with trolls, and the fact that so much of my failure is in the public eye that does lead to a non-zero amount of stress.

1:21
ConorCant: Who is this Grant and how does he have an empty DL spot? What sort of wizardry

1:21
Eno Sarris: inoright.

1:21
Just to be clear:: When I say Aa Sanchez, I mean Aaron Sanchez, not Aardvark Sanchez.

1:21
Eno Sarris: Aardvark has a hell of a nose for the ball though.

1:21
Andrew: Just a heads up… Diaz probably gets the next save opp in Seattle. Servais already said he’d like to see one more clean outing (this was prior to his most recent one) and then he’d be back in the role. Idea that Pazos is somehow a closer is baseless.

1:22
Eno Sarris: Hey I’ve been saying Diaz was the closer all along so this is good news. Bump up that NFBC bid!

1:22
DTH: best concert you’ve ever attended? I’m seeing The National in Berkeley in October and I’m worried I might be peaking

1:23
Eno Sarris: Can’t do this. So many. Burning Spear when I was like 13 in Jamaica comes to mind. The Grateful Dead in Boston when I was a freshman in high school. Goldfinger and Reel Big Fish as a freshman in college. The Shins in France at a small bar. Missing so many.

1:23
awy: clint frazier’s swing is a much discussed topic among yankees fans, what do you think about it

1:24
Eno Sarris: It’s not the swing that’s the problem, he’s not great at recognizing the breaking ball IMO. But he’s getting better at anticipating the breaking ball and not swinging.

1:25
Car man: Desmond has been pretty….meh so far. What king of numbers do you expect ROS?

1:25
Eno Sarris: .290/20/15 type.

1:25
Ninja Black Sock: adam frazier or ian happ

1:25
Eno Sarris: Frazier. Team needs him and doesn’t have that massive K-based regression coming.

1:26
Wily Vanilly: Dynasty league advice – in a vacuum, who do you take: Swanson or Gallo?

1:26
Eno Sarris: Swanson because position, contact, (non)scarcity of power.

1:27
rustydude: Joe Smith’s career k rate is 7.73, he currently sports a 13.5, ZiPS ROS projects a 9.26. Are you confident of the ZiPS projection?

1:27
Eno Sarris: I love Joe Smith. Is that an acceptable response? You’re throwing darts projecting relievers.

1:27
CamdenWarehouse: I can’t stop staring at the Colon gif. Please help me!

1:27
Sam: The Bartolo Colon thing is freezing my computer, but totally worth it

1:27
rustydude: Bartolo was a handsome devil with the Indians and Expos.

1:27
dave in slc: nl only are you keeping neftali feliz in hopes of regaining role or moving on to guys like rivero or barnes types?

1:27
Eno Sarris: Cutting my one share today.

1:28
Eno Sarris: Not only is there the fact that Knebel is great, but so is Barnes.

1:28
Shawn: If you came to my house this weekend for a BBQ, what would you want to drink? (You’re invited by the way, if you want to come to CT).

1:28
Eno Sarris: Gandhi-Bot!

1:28
DTH: if Edwin was a buddhist who believed in the rebirth of souls into new bodies, would that be reencarnacion?

1:29
Moltar: How I feel watching Ivan pitch. Where did this come from?

1:29
Eno Sarris: Extreme park factor and framing switch, I guess.

1:29
Russell: Michael don’t call me a Confortist

1:29
Russell: Michael I hold down the Conforto

1:29
Russell: The Confortoyist chair in the room

1:29
Eno Sarris: Work in progress.

1:30
Moltar: Cautiously optimistic on Junior Guerra? not hoping for a repeat of last year’s numbers, but I could use a servicable 4/5 type.

1:30
Eno Sarris: Heard he was 92-93 in rehab. Good enough to be okay, I guess, not a 12-teamer type maybe.

1:30
frank: is oh just about ohver in st louis or can he right the ship?

1:30
Eno Sarris: Broken.

1:31
ManBearPuig: Given your pseudo self-employed status, what strategies/techniques do you use to focus at your jobs?

1:32
Eno Sarris: I call it “hair on fire.” to be real though: I just rely on the comfort of routine. When routine gets disrupted (travel, for example), I have to be super vigilant.

1:33
Joe: Hey Eno! Enjoyed the Berrios sandwich tweets. 🙂 What’s up with VV? His first pitch strike rate is up 5% (ctl) and GB% from last year but swinging K% 1% off and hard% up too

1:33
Eno Sarris: Minus minus command I guess? It’s a little baffling, because he has the number of pitches to be a starter, but maybe if he relieved he could avoid walks a bit better.

1:33
JP: Is Schwarber going to get this thing turned around?

1:34
Eno Sarris: Yes.

1:34
Kyle: People who shame people for drinking miller, coors, bud, etc… are pretentious a-holes. You do you, and I’ll do me. Or you can bring your own beer next time.

1:34
Eno Sarris: That’s why I said bring your own beer next time. If there’s Big Beer at a cookout or w/e, I can usually find a Dos Equis or Corona and I’ll chill the hell out.

1:35
Marte: You picking me up when I come back? Am I still worthy of my top-35 draft slot this year or going forward?

1:35
Eno Sarris: Yes.

1:35
DefinitelyDiffPerson: Can you see where the questions are coming from or just are username? I’m wondering if there is any value in changing my name so that I can try to sneak in multiple questions.

1:35
Eno Sarris: I see the user name nothing more abut I don’t even really “see” the name.

1:36
Marte: Other than walk-offs or HR, is there any time it’s acceptable to flip your bat?

1:37
Eno Sarris: Big walks in huge situations. good sacrifice bunts, seeing eye singles, caught frozen ropes, really bad strikeouts,

1:37
Gary: Hey Eno. Who are the 2 or 3 “best” buy low pitchers at the moment?

1:38
Eno Sarris: Verlander. Price. Nola.

1:39
HappyFunBall: Most consistent brewery is Anheuser Busch. Granted they’re just running straight from the tap to the bottle, but it’s the same watered down swill EVERY SINGLE TIME.

1:39
Eno Sarris: You joke, but that’s sorta the point.

1:39
Jerry: I need an OF…who do I pick up, Happ or Altherr?

1:39
Eno Sarris: Altherr.

1:39
Pikup Androppov: Sublime helped me get through my first heartbreak in high school. Oh young naive Pikup what a foolish fool you were

1:40
Beer: Are there any good American dunkelweizens? I just see dunkel lagers and hefeweizens.

1:40
Eno Sarris: it’s a rare style here. Had a coco-weizen in Hawaii that was the business.

1:40
klof: Will there be a Birdhouse in Yankee Stadium?

1:40
Eno Sarris: Just a little birdhouse in your soul.

1:40
Matt: Eno. You missed the bus. It’s be the conFORToh, and would look like the Sandlot clubhouse

1:40
Big Joe Mufferaw: Rememer when Anthony Gose was considered a super safe prospect because his walks, speed and defense with pop? Now he’s a pitcher in the minors

1:41
Eno Sarris: LEFTY pitcher.

1:41
fanofbases: what is wrong with john lackey?

1:41
Eno Sarris: Finally lost velocity like a 38 year old should.

1:42
klof: What’s up with Odubel? He’s become unstartable.

1:42
Eno Sarris: Swinging WAY too much. Hope here is that he remembers when he didn’t swing at all for a month and tries that again.

1:43
CamdenWarehouse: Tanaka isn’t old…

1:43
Eno Sarris: I’ll give you that but 28 with the miles on his arm, he’s at least post-peak.

1:43
Hannah Hochevar:

Jose Berrios, nasty Strikeout of Trumbo (92mph Sinker sandwiched between 2 slices of filthy Curveballs).
24 May 2017
1:44
Rude: Talking about sexy gifs without sharing sexy gifs is rude!

1:44
Eno Sarris: There you go.

1:44
Tony Tiger: You mentioned in last week’s chat that “pitching mix changes” are a good indicator of a possible breakout for a pitcher. Where would I find this “pitching mix change” statistic?

1:44
Eno Sarris: Just look at the % type of pitches on their FG page, it’s an easy way to glance and see, oh look, JC Ramirez is throwing sinkers instead of four-seamers now, and tons of sliders.

1:45
Pikup Androppov: What is the best game you’ve ever played and what were your stats? Can be little league or slowpitch or another sport

1:46
Eno Sarris: Timed slowpitch against the cops. 4-4 with four doubles up the middles and the last one came as the clock was winding down and I tried to take a ton of pitches and they were so mad and I had to finally swing on a full count with one second on the clock and if I had done anything but get a hit, there would have been another inning and the Thomson Twins would probably have lost.

1:46
Andre3000: It doesn’t feel like a Thursday without Outkast

1:46
bob loblaw: so you like rosenthal for saves? can you rank these guys for spec-ing: rivero, n jones, soria, vizcaino, kahnle

1:47
Eno Sarris: Soria Kahnle Viz

1:47
Harp2: Jed Lowrie is quietly putting up nice numbers – .300 avg, 6 HR, 29 runs scored. Is he a solid stopgap for someone who needs infield power?

1:47
Eno Sarris: yes. Finally able to sleep (deviated septum surgery) and turn on the ball (bunion surgery).

1:47
Puig’s Left Bicep: Are Julio Urias’ struggles something to worry about? Or is he a young lil boy struggling to figure out his command under the bright lights

1:48
Eno Sarris: I like him long term. I see two breaking balls even if the change is less than we thought.

1:48
Farmer Ted (not a farmer): What’s your hold/sell/drop (shallow league) recommendation on Carlos Santana? Last night’s home run aside, the power hasn’t been there this year

1:49
Eno Sarris: In a ten-teamer trying to decide what to do here. I think I hold a bit. xStats says 8 homers instead of five and a .480 SLG instead of the .410 he has.

1:49
annoying cubs fan: when you say Jhonny Peralta as a Russell comp which season are you talking?

1:50
Eno Sarris: I think Peak Peralta (.300/20-25) is possible as soon as next year.

1:50
Pikup Androppov: So the inventor of the gif says it’s pronounced “jiff” but he’s just wrong. Right?

1:50
Eno Sarris: I uh agree with him.

1:50
The Decadent Moose: Nothing witty to say, out of beer, and no weekend plans. #SadPanda

1:50
Eno Sarris: NOOOOOOOOO It’s a long weekend dude get out there and get square.

1:51
Steven McDoogle: Roster Construction Question: What is the proper number of closers to own in a normal 5×5 league? Is it 3 or 4?

1:51
Eno Sarris: 4 with one bench hitter and the rest are all starters.

1:51
Best Concert : Somewhere between Protomartyr, Nick Cave, Guided by Voices, and Cornelius.

1:51
Scott: While all my friends try hard at their careers I just try to win at fantasy baseball.

1:51
Boom Selecta: If you like Junior Boys, check out Jessy Lanza. She also hails from Hamilton, ON and they’ve worked together.

1:52
Pretty Tony: Favorite rapper? LUDEacris.

1:52
Pretty Tony: Favorite section of a book? PreLUDE

1:52
CamdenWarehouse: Did you have to stop yourself from replying neither Swanson nor Gallo could play well in a vacuum?

1:52
Eno Sarris: yeah that’s an old joke we have to keep searching for new ones. it is our toughest doody.

1:52
Minty: You like Russell way more, but would you trade Baez or Russell to help solve the Cubs’ pitching woes?

1:53
Eno Sarris: Neither. I’d do what they are doing and try to find pitching because it’s out there to find.

1:53
Joe: Frankie Montas is hitting 100 regularly.

1:53
Eno Sarris: He’s a decent spec, too, I guess, but more Only leagues.

1:53
Ben: Chances Trea Turner gets sent back to AAA? OBP .266

1:53
Eno Sarris: Zero.

1:53
Anon: What was the first baseball blog that kindled your current career?

1:53
Eno Sarris: Rob Neyer’s.

1:53
Matt: I started (very preliminary) looking into weekly variance in stats for players. This morning, someone wrote about streaky hitters. In a weekly league, do you think there’s more value to trying to identify the least-streaky of your streaming options, or most streaky? ie try to eliminate uncertainty, or catch lightening?

1:54
Eno Sarris: Mix it up. If you have all boring guys you may not hit the heights you need in the playoffs. All streaky, and you end up with zeros at the wrong time. K% is a good way to zero in on this without too much research.

1:55
Matt: eno, please do not light your hair on fire

1:55
Goose: Conforto = Young MC?

1:55
Hannah Hochevar: Conforto means “With Forto”

1:55
Roman: We’ve been told Manny Machado has been fine with no analysis for at least a month, can we get some analysis as to why he is hitting .220 in late May?

1:55
Eno Sarris: Pop up problem he always had is a little worse than usual? Not great at recognizing pitches from the convo we had about picking up the ball.

1:56
Wes: Please tell me you saw the Heyward play last night and how horrific the call was

1:56
Eno Sarris: I still don’t understand what happened.

1:56
Ricky of Sunnyvale: Is Puig who he is offensively, or is there still a strong middle of the order bat hidden in there?

1:57
Eno Sarris: I believe in Puig. Give him just singles to fill out his BABIP and he’s a .280/.375/.475 guy with speed.

1:57
Cory: Clevinger or Chase Anderson?

1:58
Eno Sarris: Neither? One about to lose his job, the other just okay.

1:58
John: guerra coming off the DL in a 12 team keeper. worth dropping J. montgomery, daniel norris, cotton graveman to activate him?

1:58
Eno Sarris: I’d wait. leave him on DL for the start.

1:58
A. Reitz: Frazier more than Happ?!?! Whatever you’re smoking, I will take it. Frazier is a singles hitter, albeit a darn good one.

1:59
Eno Sarris: Talking this year. I’ll take Happ long term, but I see batting average regression and a crowded team hurting Happ’s opportunities to play. I’ve also not been a huge Happ fan on the way up, but I could be wrong about that.

1:59
Eno Sarris: BEERIOS IS A SANDWICH

1:59
David: Coming up with baseball nicknames is not your Conforte…

1:59
Scott: Who is the next closer to get ousted?

1:59
Eno Sarris: Oh

1:59
Whit: Do you like Oakland Coliseum?

1:59
Eno Sarris: no

1:59
DB: Should Tanaka be on the bench until further notice or is a home start against OAK still a game to stick him in the lineup?

2:00
Eno Sarris: Put him in.

2:00
Sonny: First week or so of May Cubs sat Addi for a ‘Shoulder’ that was bothering him. Pretty clean line from shoulder through the last few weeks. Shoulder injuries suck

2:00
Eno Sarris: Correa’s production has had similar ups and downs due to injury.

2:00
David: Can you talk about what you see from Daniel Norris. I keep wanting to drop him and then nights like last night he pushed through and looked good for a stretch.

2:01
Eno Sarris: Elite movement and velocities on his pitches, minus command, I think sequencing is his way out. I’ll buy in keepers, hold in deep leagues.

2:01
John Olerud: This year more than ever I’ve become a little disenchanted with a lot of fantasy advice, having to work harder to force myself to practice patience to oppose lots of advice that suggests otherwise. Not you in particular, just a general observation. I feel more than ever that there’s been an increased tendency to crown the latest arrival as the must-get guy (Bellinger, Happ, etc.) and to write off the old slumping veteran, even though the latter options are verging on a 30% strikeout rate that seems to predict a certain oncoming slump while many of the older guys don’t show major differences in their numbers year to year and likely are just in a slump that will correct itself. Again, just an observation, but do you think impatience is becoming more epidemic than ever?

2:02
Eno Sarris: i’ve been one of the most patient, perhaps to my detriment. The hope with the new stats is that we’re cutting that wait time down, and when everyone is working with similar stats, like in the MLB, it’s the one that can make decisions on smaller samples that can reap the reward

2:03
Maverik312: Also, Morton has reverse splits right now. Lefties aren’t hitting him, FWIW

2:03
Eno Sarris: I did see that and I don’t know what it means for him long term. I wouldn’t read too much into reverse splits. Like they don’t really exist for batters. But for a pitcher, it’s possible.

2:04
LudeBurger: are you marathon-chatting, Eno? I can get pretty lude-y if you want

2:04
Eno Sarris: Man I need to go! Work to do! Thanks for hanging out!





With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

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Giant Slormember
6 years ago

Michael Conforto = MC Hammer