Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 8/3/17 by Eno Sarris August 3, 2017 12:31 Eno Sarris: Moving Day! I’m very happy to be here for a bit. 12:02 Eno Sarris: Starbucks Wi-Fi. Moving Day. Let’s do this. 12:02 Steve: Zack Godley is a top _____ arm going into 2018. 12:02 Eno Sarris: SP2 in most leagues. 30-40. 12:02 ST Tiger Fan: Do you prefer dynasty or redraft leagues? 12:03 Eno Sarris: Dynasty. Churn and burn is not super fun to me. 12:03 Maxamuz: Eno I’ve missed you. 12:03 Eno Sarris: Where you been 12:03 Troutmaggedon: Judge – .329 iso, 30.x k%, 45% hard hit balls 12:03 Troutmaggedon: Bellinger .344 iso, 26.x% k%, 45% hard hit balls. Playing in a tougher hitters division and 3 years younger 12:04 Eno Sarris: Wrote a whole piece about how I’d pick Bellinger over Judge to start a franchise. 12:04 gump: You looking for Boston/Cambridge sandwich recco’s? 12:04 Eno Sarris: Sure! 12:04 Jon: Hey Eno! In a keep forever league, would you give Bregman for Bellinger, Pollock, Domingo, Zimmer? 12:04 Eno Sarris: Yes. I like Bregman but that’s a HAUL. 12:04 Eno Sarris: Unless you mean just one of them, in which case I’d do it for the first two. maybe the the third. 12:05 Daniel: Who ya got for the next three years: Giolito, Martes, Newcomb, or Folty? 12:06 Eno Sarris: Newcomb or Martes. Have been out on Gio for a long time, Folty’s problems are going to stay with him IMO. 12:06 Steve: The Orioles apparently didn’t trade Britton because they thought he should be worth the same sort of package that Chapman and Miller were last year. They are trading away all of their international money for Quad A guys. Their manager blasts pitch framing. Are they the new Diamondbacks? 12:08 Eno Sarris: Had one FO person tell me that they had identified the Orioles as evaluating things in a way they could take advantage of, that they were a little backwards. I think that’s a little unfair, since I’ve know their analytics people and they’re top notch. However… you never know how much the team listens to their analytics team. Their awesome bullpen year in and year out may be all they use their numbers people for. 12:08 Bork: Are you finally moving in with Joey Votto and filming a reality TV show? 12:08 Eno Sarris: Eno and Zack and Joey in Big Brother: Baseball. 12:08 80 Grade Name: Important: after Austin Pruitt faced off with Dallas Keuchel last night in Houston, here’s the list of pitching matchups where both starters’ names were cities in the state where the game was played. http://valueoverreplacementgrit.com/2017/08/03/pitchers-are-cities-in-… 12:08 Pine Needles: You’re on the Albies train, correct? 12:09 Eno Sarris: Yes I find him to be the rare high floor high ceiling guy. Floor is like a .275/10/20 plus D second baseman. Ceiling… well here’s how in the tank I am: Altuve. But that’s like the 99.5th percentile outcome. 12:10 Troutmaggedon: JC Ramirez fluctuates between a solid amount of Ks to almost no Ks from one start to the next. It’s not his stuff so is it a sequencing thing he can sort out? 12:10 Eno Sarris: I mean he’s like 90% fastball slider so I have no idea. Maybe he loses command of the slider some games? Because he has no command of the fastball, ever. 12:10 RaysWay: How good does the combination of Duda, Jennings, Cishek need to be to get the Rays to the playoffs? Do they need to overperform? Or is the marginal upgrade of their 50th percentile projection do the trick? 12:11 Eno Sarris: They don’t have problems scoring runs, really. Well, okay, middle of the pack in runs, but their home park suppresses runs. So I guess Duda is important. 12:11 Slapshot: Will you have an IPA today for IPA day? My choice is Jai Alai in draft with my lunch. 12:11 Eno Sarris: I hope to, but all I have is a can of Easy Jack in the fridge, I think. and a bunch of sours. Maybe I’ll treat myself to one at the bar on one of the car runs. 12:12 Moltar: talk in the Mets-o-sphere of bringing back Bruce. Feelings on Bruce aside, do you think Conforto can continue to handle CF? By my eye he looks okay out there, and the advanced numbers aren’t great but not atrocious either (-7 UZR/150, -1 DRS). Will the Mets be hamstrung if Conforto is the full time CF for 2018? Full time CF for 2018-2020ish? 12:13 Eno Sarris: I’m okay with keeping Bruce if it’s to be the first baseman and they have a plan for CF. Even Lagares I might rather have in CF over Conforto. He’s okay, but more ‘in a pinch’ than ‘every day starter.’ Use Bruce to bridge to Dom Smith, use Flores wherever, if you have some money, go get a CF or non closer RP, maybe a depth SP. 12:13 Luck Dragons: Would you say that Schoop and Odor are similar hitters, just one has been super lucky and one has been super unlucky? 12:14 Eno Sarris: Sorta. Odor’s pop-up problem is part of a whole distribution issue, I’d guess without looking harder, while Schoop just pops it up a lot. This deserves more of a look though, because it’s an interesting idea. 12:14 Matt: 12:14 Gio: How do I identify adjustments for hitters? Is it looking at swing rates, K/BB? 12:14 Eno Sarris: GB/FB too. 12:14 Troutmaggedon: When is your chat walk up song going to be Highway to the Danger Zone? 12:14 Eno Sarris: I hope you’re not making fun of Kenny Loggins. 12:15 2-D: When you’re at a bar/restaurant do ask what’s on tap or on draft? 12:15 Eno Sarris: Tap. Don’t want their first pick in their fantasy football draft by accident. 12:15 Moltar: ROS Bud Norris or Shane Greene? Norris has been extra valuable to me as an h2h closer because of his SP eligibility, which Greene also has (ergo I wouldn’t drop Norris for a closer like Zeigler). 12:16 Eno Sarris: I’m going to stick with Norris. Rondon pitched the 8th in a close game and they still like him somehow. Norris going to stick like Joe Borowski. 12:17 Craig in CHI: Enjoyed meeting you a few weeks back, but I doubt you remember. Lol! 12:17 Eno Sarris: Did we take the dimly lit selfie or 12:17 Trent: Considering handedness splits take quite the time to stabilize, how can one be confident a hitter can hit opposite handed pitching? For the top prospects or young hitters hitting well, do you want to see something like a 90 wRC+? 12:18 Eno Sarris: I might just look at usage. But that’s when they’re in the majors. I’d like to stay you could look at stance, but I’d think a guy like Bellinger might have a big platoon split and he’s doing okay. It’s… tough. 12:18 Joe: I’m trading Rafael Devers. Which return do you prefer: Madbum or C.Mart and Quintana. Between Quintana’s move to the NL and Madbum’s velo issues, is it crazy to think Quintana will outperform Madbum ROY? 12:18 Eno Sarris: I like getting two aces to one. Even if it’s two tier two aces. 12:18 Matt: Scott’s article about pitchers having been helped/hurt by parks this season has Corbin near the top of the “hurt the most” list. Corbin (aside from last start) has been pretty good recently. You buying? 12:20 Eno Sarris: Yep. Gap between fastball and changeup velo best in career, at least useful in all leagues on the road. 12:20 Troutmaggedon: Best moving day beer? DIPA or Imperials stout? 12:20 Eno Sarris: The biggest bottle you got, the lightest biggest bottle. So probably a sour. so you don’t have to move that crap. 12:20 Bubba: I don’t get it. Is Smoak really an elite 1B now? 12:21 Eno Sarris: I don’t think I’d consider him as such for next year, but a big step forward in discipline unlocked it all for him this year. 12:22 ? Acuña Moncada ?: Are the Mets really considering picking up Asdrubal’s option for 2018, or are they just trying to create (literally any) demand for him as a waiver trade candidate? 12:24 Eno Sarris: Dude’s been worth $8.5 million every year save one in his career, really. And how much does a Mets fan hate having Asdrubal and Wilmer around Rosario going into the offseason anyway? Leaves you options — if Wright retires, have a chunk of change for an infielder and guys you can move around. Or spend on a CF. 12:26 Eno Sarris: Cain, Dyson, Moustakas… they’re not amazing signs, but if the price is right… 12:26 jjp: Thanks for the recommendation for Neighborhood grill in SD. Went there during Comic Con and food and beer were great. 12:26 Eno Sarris: Love that place. 12:26 Avila: Does Fulmer find his strikeout stuff? I mean he’s already pretty good, if he could combine that contact manager with a strikeout artist (or more strikeouts), couldn’t he be great? 12:27 Eno Sarris: He’s really favoring that change over the slider. Could be who he is. 12:27 jjp: Is it time to cut bait on Brent Suter in deep leagues? Alternatives are set up guys with no chance of saves. 12:27 Eno Sarris: A little bit of help vs a lot of hurt… 12:27 Chris: What are your thoughts on Berrios? In a dynasty would you trade Raisel Iglesias or Knebel, and either Kopech or Mitch Keller for Berrios and Gausman? 12:27 Eno Sarris: Keller and a reliever and I do it. 12:27 Troutmaggedon: Dickerson is back in the lead off spot and crushing it again. He went into a tail spin when they moved him to 2nd. Is there something to players just doing better in different lineup spots especially one like lead off? 12:28 Eno Sarris: Could be more about the tendencies of the pitchers in that spot. More fastballs? 12:28 OC: What do you think of Domingo Santana’s mini-breakout? His K% is down 5%, but the only real changes I’m seeing is swinging at more pitches (with a small increase in contact percentage). Is this adjustment sustainable, or will pitchers just start to pitch him more out of the zone to take advantage of his higher swing rate? 12:28 Eno Sarris: I believe in it, but mostly because his shoulder is right again and he can lift it. 12:28 Towel: Matt Chapman broke DRS 12:29 Eno Sarris: He’s very goo. 12:29 Franklin: Thoughts on Sonny Gray for the rest of the year in Yankee Stadium? Pretty big downgrade from o.co 12:29 Eno Sarris: It is, and maybe I’ll be wrong, but I’m buying Gray with a sub .9 HR/9 because he’s top ten in eliciting low launch angles and throws tons of breakers, even more than the systems say he does. 12:29 Troutmaggedon: Cobb has been better but would you be selling in a keeper if you’re not in it this year? 12:30 Eno Sarris: The change is actually starting to look good, but yes totally selling in keepers, the exact kind of guy to sell in a keeper. 12:30 Bruce: Dry hopped sours >> Fruited sours 12:30 Eno Sarris: Yuuuuuuuuup. 12:30 Eno Sarris: Could say the same about iPAs. 12:30 Matt: What % of an out are ground-balls worth on average? 12:30 Eno Sarris: BABIP down to like .180 on ground balls because of the shift. 12:30 Bruce: Moving to east coast? 12:30 Eno Sarris: Moving like five minutes away. 12:31 The Oriole Bird: Showalter said the starting SS job belongs to Hardy when he returns from wrist injury (not to newly acquired Tim Beckham). What the Buck? 12:31 Eno Sarris: Keep the vets happy I guess, give him one last chance to earn a job next year? 12:31 Not Andy: Will Danny Salazar and Justin Verlander be OK for me in the h2h playoffs? 12:31 Eno Sarris: Okay to elite depending on their next adjustment. Salazar piece up right now. 12:31 BK: Canadian craft beer? 12:32 Eno Sarris: All I got is Bellwoods and Bench from Toronto. 12:32 Shorstop Cesspool: Shortstop is a cesspool. After correa went down my options are Arcia, Albies, Crawford, Russel, Peraza are my options. One of them or trade Gary Sanchez for Chris Taylor and Russell Martin? 12:32 Eno Sarris: Take a shot on Albies. Russell and Peraza are fine needs-based fallbacks. 12:32 Dylan: What are your thoughts on Odubel Herrera? He’s getting killed by Philly media for lacking discipline/focus but his stats show he’s the best the Phillies got! 12:33 Eno Sarris: HEY YOUNG DUDE ON A TERRIBLE TEAM WITH NO STAR VETERAN LEADING THE WAY DONT SLIP UP WE’RE ALL WATCHING 12:33 Eno Sarris: is that good? I don’t care. He’s a good player. 12:33 Jordan: Is Lewis Brinson going to extended playing time once Milwaukee falls out of contention this year? And is he starting for the Brewers next year? Trade Braun in the offseason and go with Brinson/Broxton/Santana in the outfield next year? 12:33 Eno Sarris: Been trying to trade Braun since the beginning of time. 12:33 Pliny the Elder: I love beer, it makes me happy. I also love being healthy and living as long as possible. What number of beers a week do you think is a happy medium? 12:34 Eno Sarris: A couple less than I have a week. Typical week for me is about… 12? 12:35 Bruce: Trout came back from the DL 14th in WAR, hes up to 8th now. Can/will he pass Trout and Altuve? 12:35 Eno Sarris: That he might is amazing enough. I’ll take Altuve though. 12:35 Jay: Assuming Salazar stays healthy-ish (I know that would be making a big ass out of anyone who thinks that happens long term) is what he’s doing with this arsenal change sustainable? Change/slider are still devastating and getting a high number of whiffs along wit an elite fastball that doesnt leak back over the hitting zone? 12:35 Eno Sarris: Yeah, I mean on the basic level it’s just ‘stop throwing that leaky sinker’ and it’s working. 12:36 Dreamweaver : So this Weaver guy? Thoughts? 12:36 Eno Sarris: Plus command, plus change, I’d buy in keeper leagues if you can. 12:36 Dave: Eno, buy or sell….all sandos are better as paninis. 12:37 Eno Sarris: New place will have enough space for the press, so I’ll have more paninis and will be better to answer this question. 12:37 Dave Cameronaunepetitegraine: More impressive, a 3 HR game, or an immaculate inning (Ala Betances yesterday) 12:37 Eno Sarris: The thing about the immaculate inning is that it’s so immediate. Good morning, good afternoon, good night, times three, done. Took like five minutes. 12:37 Brad: Moving again? How many moves have you made in your lifetime? Good luck! 12:38 Eno Sarris: If you count dorm room changes, I’m over 25. Ready to stop doing it for a while. 12:38 Electric: Tanaka had a pretty nsty split/slider combo going yesterday afternoon! 12:38 Eno Sarris: Threw two fastballs. TWO FASTBALLS!! 12:39 Xolo: What’s Brad Hand worth? 12:39 Eno Sarris: A bird. 12:39 Emo Sarris: The World is a Beautiful Place and I am No Longer Afraid to Drop Javier Baez 12:39 Emo Sarris: are you? 12:39 Eno Sarris: This is who he is and it’s okay. 12:40 Fred: Who goes first, Matheny or Yadi? 12:40 Eno Sarris: Matheny might be the worst manager in baseball. I made metrics to judge managers and he kept showing up at the bottom, and most Cardinal fans seem to agree, and now Yadi. 12:40 Maxamuz: Been busy following Lucas Duda down to Tampa. 12:40 Eno Sarris: World Series or bust? 12:41 Jefferson: Paul et al. discussed on pod yesterday: Devers vs. Albies vs. Rosario long term. How would you rank them? 12:41 Eno Sarris: That was me. The et al. Was me. 12:41 Cognitive Dissonance: I have 5 premier hitting prospects in my dynasty league (Robles, Devers, Rodgers, Eloy, Hoskins) and my team is contending. Do you have a ‘cut-off’ for prospects you won’t trade? Feel like top 10 hitting prospects are gold. 12:42 Eno Sarris: Yeah, but most recent research says that the gold extends a little further into the 20s. I’ll trade anything from 25+, and maybe in the high teens, but don’t touch my top tens. 12:42 Terry Collins: Conforto’s slash line is sexy. .295/.401/.573. Can he and Amed be Wright/Reyes 2.0? 12:43 Eno Sarris: I love Conforto, and having talked to him, absolutely get the David Wright vibe — accountable, affable, ready to lead, heady, and elite batted ball spray with power and elite discipline. I don’t know as much about Rosario, wouldn’t give him young Reyes speed, but it really could be. 12:44 Eno Sarris: 12:44 Gus: What does Rafael Devers look like in his prime? Seems pretty high-floor, at the very least. 12:45 Eno Sarris: Rendon this year? He’s great. 12:45 Eno Sarris: Him and Albies are the cream of the newest crop. 12:46 Travis: Say something bad about Ronald Acuna. I feel like I’m starting to get way too excited. Send me back down to earth a bit. 12:46 Eno Sarris: I don’t know how much he’s going to strike out in the majors? 12-13% swinging strike rates in the minors right now, could be as much as 25% strikeout rate in majors, maybe more. Otherwise, all systems go. 12:47 Pat G: I just traded Danny Salazar and Amed Rosario for Rafael Devers in a Dynasty, no contracts keep indefinitely. I’m rebuilding and already have Correa at SS. I did well, right? 12:47 Eno Sarris: Yes 12:47 t: Good day Eno! Any thoughts on the Tyranny of the IPA?Some highlights…”The style accounted for nearly 30 percent of the market…” Brewers complain about the power of IPAs. “Everybody is sort of tired of it,” Reed said. “At the same time, what are you going to do? If that’s what sells out of your tanks, that’s the next beer you’re going to brew.” http://www.philly.com/philly/business/tyranny-of-the-ipa-20170601.html 12:48 Eno Sarris: I dunno man. I like IPAs. And anyway, these days, I think it’s silly to get worked up about it. There are wheat IPAs, hazy IPAs, session IPAs, oat IPAs, fruit IPAs, sour IPAs, farmhouse IPAs. It’s grown to the point that it’s just a wing of the beer world with many sub categories. 12:48 Nick: Should I drop Nova for Wacha in a 10 team H2H points league? 12:49 Eno Sarris: Yes. 12:49 STiVo: Every day is IPA day. Now you know. 12:49 Eno Sarris: see? 12:49 BK: Any recommendations on IPAs with lower ABV? Sometimes I like to have more than 1 or 2. 12:51 Eno Sarris: Firestone Walker Easy Jack, AleSmith X, Toppling Goliath psuedoSue, RJ Rockers Day Drinker, Lawson’s Super Session, Jack’s Abby Hoponius Union, I’ll even do some Stone Ripper. 12:52 Snarfle: I know his name isn’t Birdwell, but I’m going to call him that anyway. Is he good? Or just a random good month? Do I migrate him in the 12-teamer or keep him in the nest? 12:52 Eno Sarris: Not a fan. Can’t see it working. 12:52 Kurt Snoozuki: Of all your moves, which one was the best, which was the worst? I assume Germany was the wurst 12:52 Eno Sarris: My first house move was the worst. We had a basement and didn’t know we’d be moving so we had crap down there that went years back that wasn’t even ours. 12:53 Tommy: Would it be possible to get an article or pod in depth Eno look at on the cusp minor league pitchers to acquire or avoid? 12:53 Eno Sarris: So much easier if I had minor league track man. 12:53 Kurt Snoozuki: I snaggled Frankie Montas in my dynasty after hearing your report on Melvin considering him long term. But how long term are we looking? He looks hella bad right now. 12:53 Eno Sarris: Trust the stuff. 12:53 Rick C: I’m a Braves fan, but I find it hard to view Albies as a high-floor guy. Some of this is probably tied to his elbow injury, but he struggled to hit RHP much of this year. And if he doesn’t hit against RHP, he’s basically a good middle infield defender with speed. There’s not going to be power, and if he doesn’t get on base, the speed isn’t too useful. 12:54 Eno Sarris: Defense should be there to float him, but yeah I mean every prospect has the ‘real floor’ I guess. It’s just too sad to think about. 12:54 Jeremy: Recently lost both McCullers and Ray, so in dire need of some SP help. How would you rank these waiver arms? Corbin, Ryu, Castillo and JC Ramirez? 12:55 Eno Sarris: Corbin Castillo Ryu 12:55 Spanky: Adam Eaton was cut in my ottoneu league for an $8 cap hit (points league). Think he’ll be worth 10-14 bucks next year off the knee injury? 12:55 Eno Sarris: yes. 12:56 Nihilist Eno: We’ve all been put on revocable waivers and will ultimately get claimed by the GM of death 12:56 Matt: But if you ask “What’s on tap?” are you ever afraid they might bust out in dance? 12:56 PTBNL: It’d be interesting to see at the end of the year how many guys set career bests for HRs in a season (excluding rookies). Seems like there are a ton of guys blowing way past their previous highs, i.e. Smoak, Cozart, etc. 12:56 Eno Sarris: almost an interlude. 12:56 Porcho Villa: No data yet, but the industry is assuming Kintzler gets the first shot at closing games for WAS. Do you agree? 12:56 Eno Sarris: No. Doolittle/Madson with Kintzler’s ground ball rate the perfect way to clean up the mess in the 7th or 8th. 12:57 Cee Jay: Any chance Brad Peacock holds onto his spot in the rotation? He has been better than some of those aiming to take his spot. 12:57 Eno Sarris: Problem is he’s much more likely to be able to flexible and work out of the pen like he already has. He’ll be the safety blanket, this year’s Devenski for that team. 12:57 Julius: Have an opening P spot…add Treinen or a meh SP or go with Betances or Devenski 12:57 Eno Sarris: I think Treinen might run with this. 12:58 PTBNL: What’s your go-to sandwich chain? Potbelly/Jimmy John/Subway/Quizno’s/Jersey Mike’s/Firehouse? I’m a potbelly guy myself. 12:58 Eno Sarris: Portillo’s? 12:58 Eno Sarris: Never been to Potbelly, mostly avoid those, Jimmy John is aight. 12:58 David: Went to Public House Tuesday night. There were literally 5 people in there for an away game. Bartender started pouring me free tasters because he was bored. You should do a meetup there. If you bring in 5 more people they’ve doubled profits. 12:58 Eno Sarris: And it’s a legit bar even without baseball. Have done a meetup there. 12:58 PTBNL: 12:58 Sonny: Hobo Life is east coast Easy Jack. Preferred choice tbh 12:59 Eno Sarris: I get to have Hobo at OctFest (octfest.co) this September! 12:59 gump: Post/Pre-Conference (East Cambridge): Mamaleh’s, All-Star Sandwich Bar, Flour Bakery, Bon Mi During Conference (BU): Roast Beast, Pho Viet, Roxy’s. Personal must visits are All Star and Flour and Roast Beast 12:59 Eno Sarris: YASSSSS 12:59 Marcus: We like Jordan Montgomery as a starter still, right? 12:59 Eno Sarris: Yes. 12:59 Porcho Villa: Duda red hot since the trade. Think his beast power will translate well in AL parks? Worth a flyer in a 12-teamer? 12:59 Eno Sarris: Sure he’s a fine platoon Util. 1:00 Moltar: If he’s willing to play a utility role, this Mets fan will be happy to have Asdrubal back next year for 1/$6m (he has a $2m buyout they’d have to pay anyway). Solid role player. 1:00 Eno Sarris: Right? And you’ve already sorta broached the topic with him. 1:00 Jeries: How often do you and Paul Spider vehemently disagree over a player evaluation, and how often does Paul Spider tickle you with his 8 legs afterwards to show that friendship reigns supreme 1:00 Eno Sarris: Last time might have been Pineda and there was no tickling. 1:01 THE PREDICTOR: George Clooney wins the 2035 Best Actor Academy Award for playing Bud Selig in the poignant biopic SELIG. A replica of the Oscar goes on permanent display at the Hall of Fame. 1:01 Joba the Butt: When that sassy little drum beat comes on at the end of the podcast, I always picture you and Sporer, looking sharp in dark glasses and mock turtlenecks, on instruments, jamming live. Is that true, or is it recorded? Please don’t burst my beautiful little bubble, Eno 1:01 Matt: When people end random statements with “LOL”, I feel like that is the internet version of the awkward nervous laugh… 1:01 Eno Sarris: Okay we doing better now. 1:03 Babe Lincoln: There aren’t really any good external CF options for the Mets next year, right? Carlos Gomez can’t play there anymore, I don’t think? 1:03 Eno Sarris: Cain? Cheaper on Dyson? 1:04 christopher: tried throwing off the mound for the first time in years the other day, tore up my arm… now my gf wants to break up because the sex life isn’t so hot with my right arm in a sling 1:04 Eno Sarris: Tell her you hit 90 on the gun and after surgery the local team is going to try you out. 1:04 Mr. Fister: Do you own an accordion? 1:04 Eno Sarris: No? 1:04 Snarfle: Some people are actually cats 1:04 PTBNL: Heavy Seas Tropicannon Citrus IPA is my jam 1:04 Mr. Fister: All I need in life is one Fister/Colon matchup! 1:04 Eno Sarris: There we go 1:05 Swiss: Does anyone throw caution to the wind and put in a waiver claim on Justin Verlander? 1:05 Eno Sarris: He’d make a fine addition to any playoff team, IMO. Like the Astros could use him, even with a bevy of decent pitchers. 1:05 Dan: What do i do about Taillon? Can he turn this around or should i just be done with him? 1:06 Eno Sarris: Since he came back, the two-seam has more spin and less sink. Change wasn’t good before, worse now. He’s still good on fastball/curve, maybe he can develop a cutter or slider. In redraft, might be okay to move on though. 1:06 Will: Albies or Acuna in a dynasty? 1:06 Eno Sarris: As much as I like Albies… Acuna might top some prospect lists this offseason. 1:06 Chris: What are your thoughts on Faria? Seems like he has come down to Earth a bit, and he does play in a tough division. Is he a guy to hold onto in a dynasty? 1:07 Eno Sarris: Velo dropped. I’d like to know why because otherwise he’s very good. 1:07 Zach: So Amed Rosario was clocked home to first at 4.00s with a sprint speed of 31ft/sec. I know most scouts had 65/70 speed for him, but that is borderline 80. Does that make him a ~much~ better prospect, or only a little? 1:07 Eno Sarris: Weird that he didn’t have better stolen base success rates, and sprint speed less important at short than center maybe, but it makes him a little better prospect, maybe. 1:08 Mr. Fister: Why is it that once I’m out of the race in my dynasty league and have fully traded out, that I all of a sudden start annihilating contenders one by one with a skin and bones team? I guess that’s baseball for ya. 1:10 Eno Sarris: Yeah this one is annoying. I think there’s a bit of a lesson here. As much as it’s tempting to fade prospects, it’s a young man’s game. 1:10 PTBNL: No only is Odubel Herrera a good player, he’s incredibly fun to watch. 1:10 Rafael Devers: It’s been 7 games but, damn, I look good! 1:10 Matt: 12 beers in a week?! That’s a Saturday afternoon… 1:10 Eno Sarris: Well that was typical. If you came over… 1:10 Luzinski’s Sweaty Gooch: OK, so if everyone agrees that RBI and saves are crappy stats then why haven’t we (the royal we, the editorial we) come with something better? Eno, it’s now your job to come up with a metric that quantifies the relative value of a save (one run lead, inheriting the bases loaded with nobody out and the heart of the order coming up might possibly be worth more than a three run lead with the bottom of the order coming up, yeah?) and the relative value of a hitter in RBI situations (percentage of base runners brought in, weighted by number of outs, what bases are occupied, etc). OK, Eno (if that even IS your real name) you’ve been tasked with a job. Make it happen 1:11 Eno Sarris: Okay. Shutdowns and meltdowns and win probability added. I didn’t do it but it’s there. 1:11 40% 40% 20%: The greatest “80s” song that wasn’t actually written in the 80s…The Night Begins To Shine! 1:11 Beest of the East: I’ve got Chris Sale in a mixed keeper at $26, keepable for one more year. Worth it, right? 1:11 Eno Sarris: Yup. 1:11 Dehydrated Human: It’s 105 today in Portland. What’s the best beer for me. 1:11 Eno Sarris: Hoppy sour from Breakside. 1:12 Ampersand: Beer update: Went on a brewery road trip last week, highlights were Threes, Other Half, and Burley Oak (in eastern Maryland), then went to the beach and got hella sunburned. A++ highly recommend. 1:12 Eno Sarris: except for the last part. 1:12 Beest of the East: The closer in Minnesota at the start of the 2018 season is: Belisle/May/Rodgers/Hildernburger/other ? 1:12 Eno Sarris: fart noise 1:12 Joey: Hi Eno – Alex Wood’s velocity has dropped every month this season and now he’s had a stretch of lower strikeout totals and poorer results. Do you think there is anything more going on here and is it time to sell high? 1:12 Eno Sarris: With injury risk, too, I would sell. 1:12 Jeff in T.O.: David Wright a Hall of Famer? 1:13 Eno Sarris: If he had these last three lost seasons and his health maybe. Imagine him with the new ball. 1:13 LegallyEagle: Should the Dodgers call up Buehler and let him be a bullpen arm for the playoff/stretch run? Given his peripherals, Baez seems like a ticking time bomb if the Dodgers just keep going to him. 1:13 Eno Sarris: As long as he has enough innings. Aug 30 maybe. 1:13 Eno Sarris: You want to build up innings for him as a starter too. 1:14 Bryan in Boise: Manuel Margot really looking good lately, is he a possible 20/20 guy down the road. 1:14 Eno Sarris: Yes. And the speed is open question, because he’s fast. 1:14 D.B. Sweeney as Shoeless Joe: Is Tanaka’s extreme junkballer approach sustainable? 1:15 Eno Sarris: Wrote a piece about 80% breaking balls, and I think maybe. As long as he has good breaking ball command. Though now I remember Dave Righetti saying something about Romo: “If you throw that many sliders, it goes away sometimes.” I wonder if you just hang more sliders if you throw a ton. Seems to make sense. 1:16 Z: See anything you like out of Lucas Sims debut? 1:17 Eno Sarris: Yes very much. I think it’s possible he has five legit pitches, two or three of them very good to plus. I like how he has a riding four-seam and a sinking sinker, the change has an other five to six inches of drop beyond that, and the slider is hard and the curve is very diff from slider. 1:17 Scott of Linconshire: I would have to say the walk-up song that would most likely cause the entire team on the field to bust out laughing and take away focus from the pitcher would be Madonna’s Like a Virgin. Why don’t more players use their walk-up song as a strategic advantage? 1:18 Eno Sarris: Reddick’s Careless Whisper was amazing. 1:18 Byron Buxton: Am I fantasy relevant or will the bulk of my value continue to come from my glove? 1:18 Eno Sarris: Deep leaguer. 1:19 Tim: Do you think Dyson keeps the job once Melancon is back? And how secure is Norris? 1:19 Eno Sarris: No, but will Melancon be back? Norris decently secure, no reason to give Cam the job right now. 1:19 Sam: Do i trade cueto for Bundy or does cueto come back this year? 1:19 Eno Sarris: Flexor mass this late, go get Bundy. 1:19 Tommy: Can you please provide the ratios that you use for your sriracha honey mustard and the specific types or brands, if it matters? 1:20 Eno Sarris: Sriracha is the brand, right? Then I use deli mustard and honey and basically 1/1/1. 1:20 Eno Sarris: Though monkey with the Sriracha to your heat taste. 1:20 Xolo: Wait, you really think the Padres could get Greg Bird for Brad Hand? 1:20 Eno Sarris: Haha, no it was a bird in hand joke. 1:21 Marcus: how do you feel about arizona in this early slate? 1:21 Eno Sarris: I like them better in a short series, when more of the pitching goes to their elite arms. 1:21 Frank: Re: 12:45. Devers and Alibies are the cream of the crop. Are we already that down on Rosario and monads who were both ranked higher in prospect lists? 1:22 Eno Sarris: No, I have Rosario there, but Moncada always made me very nervous. That strikeout rate… 1:22 CMart: Profar is the #__ best SS in MLB if he wasn’t blocked? 1:22 Eno Sarris: 28th? 1:22 Mr. Fister: I’ve got the itis….Next comes mud butt…. 1:22 Eno Sarris: this one ? 1:23 NoSuchThingAsClown?s: So who is the closer in TEX these days? 1:23 Eno Sarris: Kela? 1:23 Cee Jay: Gonna have to drop Joey Bats or Aaron Hicks in a few days…WWED? 1:23 Eno Sarris: Bats. no BA power guys are replaceable in today’s game. 1:23 JB: Low ABV IPA = All Day by Founders! 1:23 Cee Jay: Oskar Blues Pinner IPA has low ABV 1:23 Britini in Vegas : Hi bae! Can we pretend this is a fantasy football chat so I can ask if it was you that invented flex ? 😉 1:24 Eno Sarris: I don’t do fantasy football. Or football for that matter. 1:24 Mike: Donaldson hitting some HRs this week…you back in? 1:24 Eno Sarris: We did a poll a few weeks back and the consensus was three wins next year. I’m taking the over. 1:24 Alex: Hey Eno, are you going to the Giants game tonight? Can I buy you a beer?4 1:24 Eno Sarris: You could buy me four I was there but I’m moving today and will be licking my wounds. 1:24 Stanatee the Manatee: Why do you think St. Louis isn’t mentioned as much when talking about craft beer cities? I feel like there’s both quality and quantity here. 1:25 Eno Sarris: It’s true. Perennial, Side Project, 4Hands, Urban Chestnut right there with anyone. perhaps it’s an anti-Bud thing, or it’s not in Cali… 1:25 D.B. Sweeney as Shoeless Joe: Is Kevin Durant a punk for joining GSW? 1:25 Eno Sarris: I don’t think he’s a punk, no, but I’m also not sure it was great for ball. 1:26 Cee Jay: Deschutes Fresh Squeezed IPA. That is all. 1:26 Eno Sarris: also a fan. 1:26 Flags Fly Forever?: Hi Eno! Fan of both your baseball and beer acumen. In second place, by a point, 5×5 12 tm keeper league, 30 man rosters. Have the opportunity to trade $0 Bellinger for unkeepable Darvish, Nola, Rizzo, and Rivero. Hitting is in good shape, pitching is not, but I could make up the distance. Pull the trigger, or will I miss Belly too much? 1:26 Eno Sarris: Oh that will hurt, but if you got skin in the game, go get those dollar bills. 1:26 Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Is buttered toast an open-faced sandwich? 1:27 Eno Sarris: This is why I don’t love the argument. There’s protein in butter, so maybe, but damn man that’s a frigging piece of toast. 1:27 Matt: How does a no contract keep indefinitely dynasty league work? That doesn’t sound very fun at all… 1:27 Eno Sarris: You have a sell/buy cycle that usually helps the thing keep moving, but yeah if there are no escalators, there’s often a ‘I got Trout and a bunch of guys and I’m going to keep winning’ thing that happens. I like it better when it’s like Ottoneu and they get more expensive. 1:28 Robert: Eno, I have both Addison Russell and Arcia in dynasty league. Arcia looks like he could go 15-15. Any reason to think those SB make him a better keeper? Thanks! 1:28 Eno Sarris: Harder to find speed. Especially in dynasty, where you can’t just pick up a young player with speed. 1:29 Eric: How discouraged are you by Lewis Brinson’s 31% K rate through 54 PA? Do you expect him to make any sort of impact in 2017? 1:29 Eno Sarris: Literally asked a front office person what Brinson’s true talent K% was in the bigs right now and we both agreed on 30%. He might improve later, but. 1:29 Ampersand: Close on a house on August 14th and move two weeks later. Should I try to start drinking down my beer collection now? It’s… substantial 1:29 Eno Sarris: Yeah you wouldn’t want something to break or sit in the sun on all day better start 1:29 Sleepy: I worked for a moving company the summer I was 20. 1:29 Sleepy: Worst. 1:29 Sleepy: Job. 1:29 Sleepy: Ever. 1:29 Tallulah Trebuchet: Is there a way for mere mortals like us to try to gauge if a hitter’s going to rebound? For example, let’s say I’m trying to figure out if it’s time to move on from Hanley. What else besides BABIP should I be looking for in his stats to determine if he’s gonna get any better in the last couple months? 1:30 Eno Sarris: Exit velo works here. Compare now to the past. There’s an easy jump page on baseballsavant.mlb.com where you can see his rolling exit velo. 1:30 Chin Music: I’ve lost Kershaw and Price to the DL. Still have Carrasco DeGrom Duffy, Manaea. Can I get by if I’m able in pitching if I package deGrom with stuff for Altuve? 1:30 Eno Sarris: If it’s H2H and you’re playing for the ‘get by and then have a sweet playoff roster’ I like it. 1:30 Jeries: What do you get on a hot dog? 1:31 Eno Sarris: Mustard and grilled onions mostly 1:31 Alex: Re sandwich chains: Ike’s is pretty bomb 1:31 Eno Sarris: yeah now that one I can get with. mini chain. 1:31 Anon: How important is a manager? Beyond clubhouse atmosphere, how many wins better can a good manager vs a bad manager be in terms of in game decisions and roster/lineup? 1:31 Eno Sarris: Two to three wins I think. 1:31 D.B. Sweeney as Shoeless Joe: Still a believer in Greg Bird? 1:32 Eno Sarris: For next year, yes. .250/.350/.475 type that will always be undervalued. 1:32 Guest: Watched Treinen the other day….reminds me a lot of Kameron Loe. Crazy movement but no idea where it is gonna end up. This also reminded me of Cameron Poe, and how much I loved Con-Air. Nic Cage, man. 1:33 Alex: Whys is there so much demand on $20+ 4pack IPA releases now? The $/WAR on these is so much worse than something like Booming Rollers at half the price 1:33 Eno Sarris: Hype. 1:33 TroutAcquired: Grade as a percentage win for either side. Keeper League Trout Carrasco Khris Davis and a third pick for Goldschmidt Blackmon Tailson and a 6th pick. 1:33 Eno Sarris: Trout side 90% 1:33 Bork: Reading the players tribune makes me feel like I’m grading first year philosophy student papers. Every player seems to think they have some deep understanding of life and the world and have a special message to give the world. 1:34 Eno Sarris: We are all watching them, talking about them, GIFing them, yelling about them, yelling at them… they can be excused for thinking they are at the center of the universe, maybe. 1:34 Fangraphic Artist: My bro (not biological, ya dig?) works at Lord Hobo. Let me know if you want an e-intro. 1:34 Eno Sarris: Ask him if he’ll be pouring at OctFest. 1:34 Mark: Where are your heatmaps from in your Salazar article? 1:34 Eno Sarris: FG, probably up for everyone soon. 1:34 Tallulah Trebuchet: In your latest pod with Paul, you referred a few times to a hitter having a good or bad batted ball mix. Any chance you could elaborate with some general rules of thumb for what constitutes a good or bad mix? Kind of a newbie but trying to learn, thanks for all the help you give us! 1:35 Eno Sarris: There’s no ‘good for everyone’ but typically I don’t really want my power hitter to be 50% GB to 25% FB, there are some power hitters that make that work, but 1/1 or so is better. Look at Acuna’s mix. That’s going to be powerful. 1:35 tommy lasagna, sr.: i never forget that i have testicles. especially when horseback riding. 1:35 E: I burnt the roof of my mouth on some crazy hot appetizer dip at a tap room while on vacation. I much regret this. 1:35 CamdenWarehouse: Come on Fister. “Do you own an accordion?” is not a polite question. 1:35 Marcus Banks: Tried throwing off the mound for the firest time in years the other day, hit 96 on the gun…figured I might try out for the local independent league team but decided I can’t step away from the exitement of being a CPA. 1:36 Anthony: Cantillon Lambic Kriek has to be one of the worlds best sours, re: the comment dry hopped > fruited sours 1:36 Eno Sarris: I can agree with that and also think that the large part of new hoppy American sours are where I want to be. 1:36 Matt: Thoughts on Keuchal’s word? He’s not entirely wrong, but terrible choice of forum. Not only the PR, but he basically said his team isn’t good enough. 1:36 Eno Sarris: Yeah I was a little dumbfounded watching that. Not great, bob. 1:36 joe: what are you doing in boston?? 1:37 Eno Sarris: Analytics conference. in Friday for the meetup, out Sunday. 1:37 Eno Sarris: This is sad… I kinda have to go move. A few more minutes. 1:37 D.B. Sweeney as Shoeless Joe: What kind of car do you drive? 1:37 Eno Sarris: Paid off Honda Fit with pine sap on the black paint. 1:37 Moltar: I was there in person to see the legendary Dickey/Wang matchup. 1:38 Nola?: Has to be an ace now right? In today’s environment 1:39 Eno Sarris: I love him. Ace means you do it for more than a few years. Potential there. I mean Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander are in the top 15 rest of season by projections so yeah this environment is nuts. 1:39 Street: With you being so high on Devers, would you keep him for $5 over Alex Wood at the same price? 1:39 Eno Sarris: Yes. 1:39 Dr Hoist: Thanks for the Bellwoods rec it was great! Loved their pales and sours. Who do you like in a dynasty between Ray, Nola and Fulmer? 1:40 Eno Sarris: ooooh choosing between kids in Nola and Fulmer. Nola? Love the command. I wish his health had been cleaner, but Fulmer had problems there too. 1:40 Officer Ludebrady: I’m placing you under arrest for lude acts 1:40 Matt: Eno Sarris? More like See New Glarus, ammirite? 1:40 Paul JeDong: How good is Paul DeJong? 1:41 Eno Sarris: Barely good enough to play. Needs to BB more than 6% to make it work. 1:41 Mounds: I’m in a full dynasty league. Traded Bour for AJ Pollock. What do you think? 1:41 Eno Sarris: Yes. 1:41 SBeatte: Lamet (SD) or Castillo (CIN)? 1:41 Eno Sarris: Castillo. Lamet needs to trust the splitter. Both have straight fastballs but Castillo has two secondaries. 1:41 Doug: Sweetwater hash is the best Sessionable IPA since All Day came out. 1:41 Dan: it’s safe to drop villar right 1:41 Eno Sarris: yeah. 1:42 Matt: Greg Bird and Brand Hand worth a Matt Bush? 1:42 Enos Arris : Sometimes I intentionally pronounce Worcestershire phonetically, just to stick it to the man. 1:42 Sparky: Is Shane Greene going to be the “man” til the end of the season or do you think the Tigers let Joe Jimenez get a sniff of the role? 1:42 Eno Sarris: Greene, probably, Rondon second. 1:42 huh: What Jose Peraza have you been watching? 1:42 Eno Sarris: The one that is not good but looks a little like Hamilton offensively and is on a team that gave Hamilton every chance. 1:43 Bo Jackson’s Colon: Bo knows its time to take a dump. Now. Right now. Get outta my way 1:43 Snarfle: Not quibbling with any particular return, but was it odd to you how many relief prospects the Mets got at the deadline? 1:43 Eno Sarris: They didn’t have much to sell I guess. 1:43 Enos Arris : Is an entire loaf of bread with a single raisin somewhere in the middle a sandwich? 1:43 Eric: 1:44 Ben: Do you like pina colada? 1:44 Eno Sarris: and getting caught in the rain 1:44 Snarfle: Are the A’s close to having one of those sneaky good teams again or still too many 0-1 WAR randos? 1:44 Eno Sarris: Getting closer. 2019 maybe. 1:45 Dat Dude: start Verlander @ HOU or J Mont @ CLE in the coming days? 1:45 Eno Sarris: Yes. 1:45 joe: do we need a ticket for the fangraphs meet up tomorrow? 1:45 Eno Sarris: no 1:45 EbenezerBatflip: Please for your own good, Go to ANNA’S TAQUERIA, the best burritos in BOSTON 1:45 Eno Sarris: I doubt I’m going to come to Boston from Cali and get a burrito but thanks! 1:45 Jon: Fellow Honda Fit driver. I knew I liked you, Eno. 1:45 Eno Sarris: It… gets us around. 1:46 Marty: Dayn Perry said it best: you should move houses one time. Then the next time you leave, should be on a gurney. 1:46 Eno Sarris: This is that house for us hopefully. 1:46 Paul: Is there any way to tell which teams have faced better or worse pitchers this year? 1:46 Eno Sarris: BP has a stat. 1:46 Bob Barker: Hey Eno – i liked your feedback on Wood. Would you rather Wood or Severino ROS and next few years? 1:46 Eno Sarris: Severino. 1:46 bombsquad rabbi: Shampoo smells fantastic but man it tastes like effing ish my dude 1:47 Eno Sarris: Hey now I really gotta go. Thanks for taking my mind off the impending disaster. I will now jump in head first.