Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 9/22/16

1:47
Eno Sarris: fly this whole mess into the sea

12:01
Eno Sarris: I’m here!

12:01
Q-Ball: While I think Bryant should be NL MVP anyway, I also wonder if Seager’s chance are hurt by the fact that voters know he is getting another major award. (NL RoY). Do you think it works that way?

12:02
Eno Sarris: Yes I do think it’s that way. Shouldn’t Rick Porcello be a shoo-in for AL Comeback Player? Do you think he’ll win it?

12:02
Jimmy: Hey Eno. I’ve been reading a lot about how the Cubs should order their rotation, specifically the first 3 games. What do you think they should do?

12:02
Eno Sarris: The only thing that might matter is what parks they’re playing in and the lefty/righty situation, i.e. in which park do you play Jon Lester?

12:03
Fire Kevin Cash: It’s getting harder and harder to keep assuring myself that the league will adjust and Gary Sanchez will be just another rookie catcher instead of a blight upon the AL East for the next decade. How do we adjust expectations for a historic debut like this? At least Trevor Story struck out 30% of the time.

12:04
Eno Sarris: He’s pretty much nailing is projections when it coms to bb and k, he’s just getting a little lucky when it comes to power. A .410 ISO is impossible. You nudge up your power projections, and you don’t ever, ever say the name Kevin Maas. Because Gary sanchez is 23.

12:04
Jake: Hey Eno, visiting Toronto this wknd. Any bars/beers/food places you would recommend?

12:05
Eno Sarris: Really liked Bellwoods and BarHop.

12:05
Joe: Bought a pint of Pliny the Elder in DC for 30 bucks and don’t really regret it. But, Eno, how much is too much to spend on a single beer?

12:05
Eno Sarris: I buy sours for that much from time to time but I try to limit it.

12:05
Zonk: Is Harper hurt, or no? Either a) Rizzo is lying, b) Harper and the team trainer are lying to Rizzo, or c) Verducci is completely wrong in making up a story on this injury. I tend to believe a). What do you think?

12:07
Eno Sarris: There’s a little gray area between a) and c). I just talked to Carlos Correa and he mentioned something about not being 100% but when I pushed him on it, he said he was fine. Another player told me that “the only day you’re 100% is the first day of Spring Training.” So maybe there’s some soreness, there was an injury, and maybe the conflict between the two stories is how severe it is and how much it is hampering his play at the plate.

12:08
Dumpster Fiers: What are your thoughts on Matt Boyd for 2017?

12:09
Eno Sarris: Homer-prone guy with good pitches and a likely rotation spot? I’d consider him a deep league end-game guy.

12:09
Max Power: Any interest in W. Chen, Gsellman or Musgrove this week?

12:09
Eno Sarris: Gsellman has good matchups.

12:09
Pennsy: X axis is team WAR and Y axis is collective attractiveness to a potential sexual partner. Which teams plot furthest to the top right?

12:10
Eno Sarris: the Cubs are pretty damn attractive! Bryant? Russell!!! Rizzo has that square jaw people love. Arrieta is a hipster hottie. I don’t think anyone beats them on both fronts.

12:10
Erik: If you have to give the ball to one guy for an inning with the game on the line, do you give it to 2016 Zach Britton or peak Mariano Rivera?

12:10
Eno Sarris: peak Rivera.

12:11
Choo choo: Colome, Giles, Dyson, Street, Strickland, Capps…are all these guys closers to start 2017?

12:11
Eno Sarris: I like Dyson and Giles most of all, the rest have reasons to doubt.

12:11
Q-Ball: Joe Maddon said the other day he could see 6-man rotations becoming more common. No way that can work with less than a 13-man pitching staff, correct? Is roster expansion of some kind inevitable in the next CBA?

12:12
Eno Sarris: I think if you reworked one of the bullpen slots and rethought the usage a little bit, maybe.

12:12
Fire Kevin Cash: Alex Cobb had a terrible, horrible, no good very bad day. Is this from the missing changeup or was there another issue holding him back?

12:13
Eno Sarris: I think the splitter having lost six inches of drop means something. Don’t know if it means he’s still hurt, or if he’s just not all the way back stuff-wise.

12:13
High on ludes: Inter-quaalude time. Whoooooa, man.

12:13
I fart when I pee: Just can’t help it!

12:13
You’re tearing me apart, Lisa!: – Tommy Wiseau

12:13
Eno Sarris: well then!

12:14
Eno! Helloooooo: Is Trea Turner pulling a Lindor with this power?

12:14
Eno Sarris: This is over his head, but it’s nice to see that he likely has above-average power instead of below-average power.

12:14
Jon Lester: Hey Enos, ESPN’s Cy Young predictor has me winning the Cy Young? Do you agree?

12:15
Eno Sarris: Nah. If Kershaw gets to 150 he’s really interesting. Noah’s going to have 180 and has been dominant in sum. Scherzer has the quantity argument.

12:15
EvanC: Andrew McCutchen is slashing .299/.385/.584 in September. Is this a sign that a steep decline isn’t in effect and that he could be close to normal McCutchen next year?

12:16
Eno Sarris: Slowly ramping up his exit velo, only now turning 30, it’s too early for him to be really declining.

12:16
Erik: Is there an argument to give the Cy Young to Zach Britton simply because he’s having the most remarkable season of any AL pitcher, even if he’s provided less value than the top starters? When we look back through the record books 50 years from now, whose season would you rather be reminded of, Britton’s, or someone like Kluber’s or Sale’s? Seems pretty clear to me that we’ll forget every AL starter’s 2016 in ten years, but we’ll be talking about Britton’s for a long time.

12:17
Eno Sarris: I’ll give you that Britton’s season is more memorable, but I don’t think the wording of the award focuses on memorable.

12:17
Burts_beads: Why isn’t Pujols better than he is now? His statcast exit velocities are really good. He doesn’t strike out much. And his LD/GB/FB numbers don’t seem THAT much different than his prime years. Obviously the walk rate is way down from prime years but you’d think he’d have better numbers since he puts the ball in play so much and hits the ball hard.

12:18
Eno Sarris: They started shifting him heavily the last three years, I guess. I’m surprised he hasn’t been able to beat the shift, because he’s a guy with a proven two-strike approach.

12:19
Seinfeld: What’s the deal with A.J. Reed? And airplane food.

12:20
Eno Sarris: A little passive in the zone, I guess. His whiff rate shouldn’t have created a 33% strikeout rate. But it’s now the what third try they’ve had at a homegrown first base prospect… Not saying Reed is done, but it is interesting that so far, they’ve mostly flamed out with strikeouts.

12:21
Sailor Jerry: Austin Hedges opening day catcher 2017?

12:22
Eno Sarris: Derek Norris is about to break a record for the lowest batting average of all time, minimum 400 plate appearances. He’s also a bad framer, a terrible game caller, and generally reviled behind the plate….

12:23
36 Chambers: Best living member of Wu-Tang? Because otherwise it would obviously be ODB, right?

12:23
Eno Sarris: Gotta be Meth, no? And yeah, ODB >>>>>>>>

12:23
Sailor Jerry: Nomar Mazara has quietly started mashing again, what does his line look like next year? What’s his peak-level?

12:25
Eno Sarris: I think next year he’ll take another step forward and hit .285 with 25-27 homers. Peak? Trying to rein in my love for him but .300/.375/.500 with 30-35 homers and all of the RBI (if you care). Why not? He has a two-strike approach, good contact skills, has been more patient in the past, and I’m adding 30 points of ISO between debut and peak for a 21 year old that has hit the ground running. Drool.

12:27
Craig Mack: Where is Jurickson Profar next year? Is he starting and at what position?

12:27
Eno Sarris: Center field? I doubt they pony up for Desmond, but maybe I’m wrong. I still like him.

12:27
Keith Murray: Can you say some more good things about Ryon Healy?

12:28
Eno Sarris: He’s very nice and he’s strong.

12:29
Miggy: Everything in life I got by hitting. Triple Crown? Hitting. MVP? Hitting. Hall of Fame? Hitting. Now get the hell out of my office.

12:29
RotoLando: Brangelexit. (I’m topical!)

12:30
Nelson: Re: you hop article – Love it, but curious how you kow that mosaic tastes like cat piss? Why not dog or human?

12:30
Eno Sarris: good point lude.

12:30
RotoLando: What’s the biggest vehicle you think you could flip during a sports victory riot, er, celebration?

12:31
Eno Sarris: Maybe one of those east-German Trabants made out of styrofoam, the two-door version? I’d probably need help anyway.

12:32
Erik: I’ve seen a call for Tommy Joseph for comeback player of the year, for coming back from near retirement due to concussions and ending up an okay major leaguer. Could you see a rookie winning comeback player of the year?

12:33
Eno Sarris: That’s fun, but it’s subject to the same problems as Porcello for Comeback. I think we give injured guys Comeback Player because otherwise we have to talk about how bad they were before, which is awkward. And I doubt enough writers know about Joseph’s back story to spur them to vote for him despite it being injuries.

12:33
Dock Ellis: Just moved to Denver. With the amount of Breweries in the area, am I justified in boycotting Breckenridge for selling out?

12:33
Eno Sarris: Drink good beer. (I don’t think their beer is amazing.)

12:34
Bruce: Serious question: Why will I refuse to pay 17$ for a bomber in a beer store, but have no problem taking an expensive weekend trip to Asheville primarily to try their beers?

12:34
Eno Sarris: All about expectations and routine.

12:35
Ray: Can we talk about the incredibly out of nowhere age 31 season that Sean Rodriguez is having? He’s quietly posted an OPS just south of .900, which is almost 200 points higher than his previous career high. Is it because he’s swinging the bat with more authority? That would probably explain his career high (by about 10%) hard contact rate, but also his career high K%. Is that what’s going on, because otherwise, I’m stumped on how he’s transformed from a light hitting ace utility defender to a slugging wizard.

12:35
Eno Sarris: Given his playing time situation, though, it’s just not a big enough… grouping of stats.

12:35
Paul: Would you say that Julio Teheran is a #2 starter?

12:35
Eno Sarris: Yes, one of the rare true number twos.

12:35
Bart: Maybe a little early but what approximate round do you think Gary Sanchez will be drafted next season?

12:35
Eno Sarris: Third?

12:36
Ozzie: Over the last 2 years, Adam Eaton ranks 6th in fWAR among outfielders. Eaton has demonstrated consistent pop and addressed concerns regarding durability over the last two years, he may be considered elite, no?

12:36
Eno Sarris: A big portion of that WAR came from this year’s effort, which has been fueled by big defensive numbers during a position switch. I’d call him more a 3-4 win guy, which is Good.

12:36
Felix: Do you believe Sonny Gray can get back to where he was? Or has the league figured him out?

12:37
Eno Sarris: I think he really needs to nail down a third pitch, perhaps a cutter instead of a slider. He’s missing a weapon, and mucking around with the slider has made his curve command worse. I think there’s something fixable in there. Plus, injuries were part of the picture this year.

12:37
Logan: Should Atlanta consider dealing Ender with his value so high, maybe packaging prospects with him to obtain a frontline starter or big power bat?

12:38
Eno Sarris: I like Mallex enough to think they should consider this if they can get a frontline starter back.

12:38
Dock Ellis: Last week you mentioned you spoke with Spaceman Lee. Can you tell me more about that encounter?

12:39
Eno Sarris: We talked about the Judeo-Christian values in Rastafarianism, the politics of free agency, and eephi http://www.hardballtimes.com/still-pitching-and-still-fascinating-at-69/

12:39
Nelson: Do you think Hoynes was wrong to write that article, or were the players just a bit too touchy about a columninsts article?

12:40
Eno Sarris: I actually think neither group was ‘wrong.’ The only fault I have is in writing something that isn’t backed by numbers or even great critical thinking. yes, the Indians depth has been hurt. Guess what happens in the postseason? Depth becomes less valuable.

12:40
Dorn: Why is it that it seems like a changeup is often a prospects last hurdle until they are deemed major league ready? I could be wrong and I’m speaking anecdotally, but it certainly feels that way?

12:41
Eno Sarris: I think it’s difficult for people with a plus breaking ball to learn a plus change and vice versa, so many pitchers come in with two pitches, and need a third. It doesn’t have to be a changeup, but that’s the way we’ve always done it, so I guess we’ll keep talking about it that way. But with Taillon’s bad change, for example, I’d be talking to him about a cutter or slider.

12:41
Rick: Was in Seattle last week and had some excellent beers at Cloudburst which you recommended on any earlier chat. Thanks! Dynasty League Question. How would you rank Joe Ross, Samardzija, Matt Moore, Folty, and Gio?

12:42
Eno Sarris: Yeah that’s a former Elysian brewer that left when they sold to AIB. I’d rank them the way you have them, though maybe Moore ahead of Shark.

12:42
Billy: Eno! I have like 40 innings left for the next 9 days. Do I dare start Tallion tomorrow?

12:42
Eno Sarris: yes, the last three to four days will have plenty of scratched starters.

12:43
Leon : This is a bit of an odd question where your answers will probably more of an educated guess than it is a concrete answer. When you look at some of the MLBs official rules, rookie eligibility being a good example, why is it that at bats is the benchmark for determining status and not plate appearances? As a whole, it just seems like the MLB, at least in an official capacity, highly favors using it over plate appearances. I’ve always been a bit befuddled by that.

12:43
Eno Sarris: Just old thinking.

12:45
Frankie: Assuming he finishes the year with his rookie eligibility intact, I feel like Josh Bell enters next year as one of the favorites for NL ROY, right? It seems like the only other strong contenders who are currently playing at this moment are guys like Dansby Swanson and Alex Reyes (who might not have eligibility).

12:45
Eno Sarris: Things like this never work out the way we think they should. The RoY is so often just a guy that started hot at the right time… Pat Listach!

12:46
DB: Searching for cheap SBs in a 16 team league over the last 10 days…any hot tips?

12:46
Eno Sarris: Had a piece called Streaming for Steals a couple weeks back that identified the worst teams at preventing steals, and there’s a leaderboard of the worst pitchers, and the pitcher is 6x more responsible than the catcher in giving up a steal.

12:47
Ampersand: Eno I wrote you a haiku!

Three people with hats
Are watching from your closet
They appear hungry

12:47
Eno Sarris: creepy

12:47
Doug: What’s so good about Threes Brewery? Walked by this weekend and wasn’t inclined to go in.

12:47
Eno Sarris: You made a decision about a brewery with your eyes? Strange!

12:48
Matt: Obligatory Gary Sanchez ROY question. Top 15 starters (by GS) started 33 games in 2015. Based on that, Fulmer will have started 26 by end of season, or 79% of a season. Based on 560 PAs (would have been 2nd to Posey in 2015) and current AB/G, Gary will get to 236 PAs, or ~42% of a season. He’ll have over half the time of Fulmer and the offensive production he does. I know he hasn’t been given time to cool off, but that ROY argument is getting tough, huh?

12:48
Eno Sarris: I think he’ll win it. Fulmer’s been good, but not as headline-grabbing.

12:48
Ampersand: Went to a beer festival last weekend and woke up naked in my bed. Alone 🙁

12:48
Eno Sarris: you know… it could have ended up much, much worse.

12:49
Derek: The Pirates just traded with the Yankees for Phil Coke, which is a massively inconsequential trade, but brings me to my larger question – Can you think of two GMs who clearly like working with each other more than Neal Huntington and Brian Cashman?

12:50
Eno Sarris: Houston and Oakland come to mind, especially since you can give that relationship credit for the Milwaukee trades, too. This is a very real aspect of trading that people don’t realize — everyone makes stupid ass trade offers, but people you have a good relationship with send a text back and say cut the crap but what about this idea.

12:50
GAK: Astros are getting better SP lately, with exception of Fister. I think they’re something like 15-5 in their last 20, absent the Fister starts (every one of which has been lost). Hinch keeps resisting bringing Devenski into the rotation. But now Devo has added a 3rd pitch, threw 46 pitches in long relief on Tuesday. Sure, Devenski is great at putting out fires, but wouldn’t he be more valuable making two starts, giving the Astros 10 good innings, and be stretched out to maybe throw 6 IP in a potential WC game? My real question: shouldn’t the Astros be smart enough to realize Devo means more in the rotation, and Fister can’t keep starting?

12:50
Eno Sarris: This is a very real Bad Decision in the making.

12:50
Jon: Who is the Padres LF next season, assuming Margot and Renfroe occupy the other two spots?

12:51
Eno Sarris: Dickerkowski.

12:51
Eno Sarris: I actually think Renfroe will be up and down, and it’s more like Margot, Jankowski and Dickerson.

12:52
fire Dan Duquette: Hey Eno: thanks for a great fantasy season. Enjoyed your columns on RG and elsewhere. Question: given that Trumbo has been in a hitting swoon (with the exception of hitting the occasional HR) and he’s relatively cheap to keep at $14, should I shop him in an AL only 7 x 7 cats league where OPS and walks are added? Would you trade him for Sano ($8)? Sano’s whiff rate on pitches in the strike zone scares me.

12:52
Eno Sarris: Walks and OPS and positional value and money, I take Sano there. He’ll be better

12:53
Roadhog: Re-evaluate the Brandon Moss for Joey Wendle trade, based on what we know about both now.

12:54
Eno Sarris: It’s still fine. Moss has been a part time player since, and one that slogged through some injuries, and Wendle might be okay.

12:54
Eno Sarris: (and I love Moss)

12:54
WeAreGood: Miguel Montero has been getting his swagger back the last few games and has been hitting the ball really well. I can see the Cubs taking 3 catchers to the playoffs esp. with Contreras having the ability to play LF. What do you think the Cubs are most likely to do come playoff time?

12:55
Eno Sarris: I think they’ll do that and perhaps only carry Heyward as backup CF. could be bad news for Almora and Szczur.

12:55
Chavez-Ravin: In the NLDS against scherzer. If you were Dave Roberts who would be in your outfield? Puig, Reddick, Toles, Kendrick, Pederson, Ethier?

12:56
Eno Sarris: I’d go with platoon advantage and just do Reddick and Joc, and Ethier if he looks okay this last week plus. Otherwise…

12:56
Eno Sarris: sorry had to pee

12:57
Eno Sarris: good god I’m at 12:15 in the queueueeuee

12:57
2-D: Is Jon Gray going to be that guy that can beat Coors more often than not?

12:57
Eno Sarris: I like that he just threw as many curves as slider in a game for the first time, and it was at home. I like him.

12:57
Melvin: How many Nick Markakis questions are you getting today?

12:57
Eno Sarris: This is the first.

12:57
Andrew Toles: Am I for real?

12:59
Eno Sarris: This is a more common question. He’s outperforming his projected power most of all, but his backstory is so checkered, in terms of providing good sample for the projections, that I’m more comfortable upping his true talent to something like .275/.325/.425 at least, which is pretty good.

12:59
hscer: Verducci has a history of being wrong about the Nationals. if you’ll pardon 3-year-old self-linkage: https://hscer.wordpress.com/2013/10/11/fotf-ryan-zimmerman-and-tom-verducci/

12:59
Eno Sarris: Could be a source that’s not as clued in as he thinks he is.

1:00
Guest: What’s logically inconsistent about saying “I consider a team’s playoff qualification to boost a player’s MVP candidacy”? It may be dumb, but it’s not inconsistent to apply a “playoff bonus.”

1:00
Eno Sarris: It’s conflating a personal award with team factors?

1:00
fire Dan Duquette: Eno: does the fact that McCullers has had two injuries in one season scare you off of him in dynasty leagues? Should I shop him? 16 team pts. league. Wins and losses don’t matter but IPs do.

1:00
Eno Sarris: Can’t shop him at nadir.

1:00
Biscuit: City buses have two speeds: gas and brake. Coasting gently is not allowed its the rule.

1:00
Eno Sarris: MY NECK AND MY BACK

1:00
Karl: Best possible ownership group: the players themselves, with an appointed steward to represent their interests and oversee a traditional front office. Will it happen by 2100?

1:01
Eno Sarris: No, but what about a team bought by former players? That could happen much sooner, with Derek Jeter making noise.

1:02
Modest Fagersbomb: Nomination for prettiest swing of a terrible hitter: Alex Avila

1:02
Eno Sarris: It’s certainly not Rich Hill’s swing.

1:02
Ronnie: At what point does FIP not matter for a pitcher? For example Julio Teheran.. He’s out-performed it for 4 years now.. But every year people say he’s not as good as it seems… uhh

1:03
Eno Sarris: Scan down to batted ball stats, multiply FB% by IFFB% in your head, if it’s over 4%, that player has a repeatable skill that will beat FIP (but is included in WAR).

1:03
Zorn: What do you think of Jharel Cotton?

1:04
Eno Sarris: The more I watch the more I like. I don’t know why he doesn’t have the upside of a 2, maybe even more at his peak. I love his changeup, it’s so nasty, and his other stuff is good too.

1:04
Bruce: Is Bedrosion the favorite for saves going into 2017 in LAA

1:04
Eno Sarris: Favorite for most saves in the season, perhaps, but not at the beginning.

1:04
jeff: Favorite Canadian beer? Also – if you ever make it as far as Nova Scotia, they have some ridiculously sneaky good beers. Like weeping tears good.

1:04
Joe: wow the Yankees just sold Coke to the pirates!!! that’s a felony!!!

1:04
Eno Sarris: Bellwoods Jelly King

1:05
Rick: I haven’t been a commish in any yahoo leagues, but just wondering. I know a commish can change other team’s lineups, etc, but can they change stats? Questioning one of the leagues I’m in and not sure if I am just being paranoid lol.

1:05
Eno Sarris: No.

1:05
Alex: Which Atlanta pitching prospect are you very high on that doesn’t get much attention?

1:05
Eno Sarris: Soroka?

1:05
Bruce: Is there room for Gsellman in the opening day rotation? Lugo?

1:05
Eno Sarris: Lugo ahead of Gsellman, and probably one gets in.

1:06
RotoLando: Holy crap, how many shortstops are going to end up with 25+ HR this year?

1:06
Eno Sarris: All of them.

1:06
EvanC: Were you joking about ODB(I don’t generally put him in my top 5 wu-tang)? I’d vote Inspectah Deck or Ghostface

1:06
Eno Sarris: It’s a great group, and I feel like there’s no consensus on any of this. RZA and GZA did a lot of the behind the scenes stuff which is super important, and if you give them credit for that…

1:07
botchatheny: name me a beer that is great for the first day of fall (and that i can get in kansas)

1:07
Eno Sarris: Sierra Nevada Oktoberfest.

1:07
Jo-Jo Reyes: How worried are you about Freeman’s spike in strikeouts?

1:07
Eno Sarris: Came with a swing plane change, which has given him more power, so it’s fine.

1:07
Jim: With Corey Seager emerging as a superstar, assuming now WS this year, you think the Dodgers try to push all in for 2017? Prime Kershaw/Seager is a hell of a head start that you have to capitalize on right?

1:07
Eno Sarris: With Friedman at the helm, they’ll never push all in with all of their prospects.

1:08
Sean: Do you have an opinion OMG Garrett Richards non-TJ recovery?

1:08
Eno Sarris: Surgery is not always the answer.

1:08
The Good Stuff: Gun to your head, gotta part with one: Russell or Baez?

1:08
Eno Sarris: part with Baez, as much as I like him, Russell is brainier, progress more steady.

1:09
Seabass: I got some dribble on my bibble

1:09
Dr Angry: Sean Manaea is already well past his previous career high in innings. A) Do you think he gets shut down soon? B) Are the A’s bucking the trend of placing innings caps on pitchers?

1:10
Eno Sarris: He’s only ten past his number in 2014, and he was injured some last year. I bet they give him one more start.

1:10
Faul Hoynes: Eno I know it’s only September 22nd, but your championship aspirations for writing the rest of the season are toast, finished. Yeah you’re right right index finger is fine, but that broken nail on your ring finger and middle finger tendonitis are going to bog you down to 20 wpm. Sure Fagerstrom has two bad shoulders, Cameron is busy moving, and Sullivan has already passed his career high in articles written, but I just can’t see it Eno.

1:10
Eno Sarris: but my sprained finger is fine!

1:10
Gordon: Gregory Polanco has struggled a bit with breaking stuff this year and its clearly one of the last adjustments he needs to make. How confident do you feel that he can make those adjustments? He’s always struck me as a guy who takes a little longer than most to make them, but he gets there.

1:11
Eno Sarris: I’ve been confident he would get here for so long I’ll stick with him.

1:11
botchatheny: you could knock over the adobe, i bet. the little car that’s made out of clay!

1:11
Eno Sarris: seems like a bad idea in the rain

1:12
botchatheny: beer is not the first thing im thinking of when i move to denver. just sayin’

1:12
FTS: If a team goes knocking on Cincy’s door this Christmas and were willing to pay all of the 200 million on Votto’s coming years what do you think they’d still need to give up in trade?

1:12
Eno Sarris: If they paid the money, they could get some awesome stuff in return and would not have to add.

1:12
Matt: I’m going to Boston in a few weeks.. Give me some breweries to explore.

1:13
Eno Sarris: Trillium for take home, they might have a tasting room somewhere now. Night Shift. Cambridge is okay.

1:13
Earl: Greinke seems to be duplicating his 2013 numbers, with worse results. Anything troubling about his pitches or is this mostly ballpark? Home splits are terrible.

1:14
Eno Sarris: He won’t admit it to me, but he has admitted that the slider is tougher to command this year, and put that together with what Chris Bassitt said — AZ is terrible for breaking ball command — and I think that’s what’s going on. Good thing he has great command of three other pitches.

1:14
Mike: The Washington Post did an informal survey and decided that Dogfish Head’s Punkin Ale was the best Pumpkin beer. Your thoughts?

1:14
Eno Sarris: Put them all into a rocket and fire them into the sun.

1:14
RotoLando: Am I the only one who thinks Sean Rodriguez looks like LiL Sweet?

1:14
FTS: Is Shapiro a robot?

1:14
Eno Sarris: yes and yes

1:15
tommylasagna: what is your dark horse world series matchup?

1:15
Eno Sarris: Dodgers Indians

1:16
iron wolf: Eno: how close is Folty to becoming a top 50 SP? Great whiff rate w/changeup and curveball (doesn’t use them often enough for some reason) and high velocity FB should = success, no?

1:16
Eno Sarris: Also ahead in count at a top-five rate, just throwing into the zone and betting on his stuff. He’s a mixed league sleeper.

1:16
Kevin: Any faith that Matt Wisler and Aaron Blair figure it out and atleast are solid #4 types?

1:16
Eno Sarris: not really.

1:17
Beatrice: So you often here about guys who profile as a one through five starter. When it comes to #1’s I know who those guys are in the majors, but the farther you go down the rotation, the cloudier it gets because really no team has a prototype guys in each slot. Could you maybe give an example of one guy who best represents a 2, 3, 4 and 5?

1:17
Eno Sarris: Just sorting by WAR but thinking in 30 player chunks….

1:17
Eno Sarris: 2) Lackey, Teheran

1:18
Eno Sarris: 3) Samardzija, Leake, Hammel

1:18
Eno Sarris: 4) Graveman, Straily

1:19
Eno Sarris: 5) Nobody qualified, usually a hodgepodge

1:19
Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: I think any team with Bartolo Colon is defaulted as most sexually attractive.

1:19
spookie: best hangover sandwich, go

1:19
Eno Sarris: runny egg and bacon and tomato with salt and pepper

1:19
Ryan: Is it better to run 500k type young pitchers out there in hopes that some stick, or should teams invest solid money into pure backend fodder (Pelfrey/Nolasco types)

1:20
Eno Sarris: Young guys.

1:20
DMo: Better spot start: Bettis @ LAD on Sat. or Musgrove vs. LAA on Sunday?

1:20
Eno Sarris: Musgrove. That lineup.

1:20
botchatheny: are long fingers the key for pitch effectiveness?

1:21
DMo: Thoughts on Lourdes Gurriel? When does he make it to MLB?

1:21
Eno Sarris: Driveline couldn’t find anything linking long fingers to spin rate, I don’t think, but I can’t help but wonder if it’s easier to choke a change.

1:21
Eno Sarris: Lourdes will sign in October, I think, when he’s a free agent instead of a guy you have to use your international budget on.

1:22
Ian: Do you see yourself working in a Front Office one day? Is that something your aiming for?

1:22
Eno Sarris: I’m too old to be a GM.

1:22
john wick: does grandal have another level if he can keep himself healthy? or is this what he is?

1:23
Eno Sarris: I think he could figure out those pop flies and improve his babip some.

1:23
Matt: I’m thinking about going to Pitch Talks tonight. What exactly is it, and what should I expect?

1:23
Eno Sarris: it’s great fun. It’s like a mix between a meetup and a panel at sabr, and you’ll get funny stories from inside the clubhouse paired with honest analysis.

1:24
jon: If Heyward wins the NLCS MVP, does that justify the totality of his contract in 7 games or less?

1:24
Eno Sarris: I tried to do this with championship shares and Barry Zito (he pitched that one awesome game in 2014) and came up short.

1:24
Enlightening Round: Baaahahahahaha ESPN 2017 fantasy sleepers, Freeman, Cespedes, Turner, LeMahieu. Does anybody see this quartet as sleepers????

1:24
Eno Sarris: Maybe the last one? We all write for different depths.

1:24
Bork: Hello, friend!

1:24
Eno Sarris: you’re late!

1:25
Bork: Sorry I’m late, I got stopped on the street for an autograph (really)!

1:25
Eno Sarris: Well that’s just fine.

1:25
Mike_C: Swanson currently driving his numbers with a .395 BABIP. Obviously a regression candidate for next year. But what would be a realistic expectation? Could he maintain a .350 BABIP?

1:26
Eno Sarris: .320 maybe, but he should also strike out less and hit for more power as that BABIP comes down.

1:26
mike sixel: A: thanks for the beergraphs article on hops.

1:26
mike sixel: B: dangit…..which trades return more prospect value, mid-season or winter?

1:27
Eno Sarris: mid-season because the other team knows they are in it.

1:27
Boy Jorge: Tell me I’m pretty

1:27
Eno Sarris: You’re pretty.

1:27
Eno Sarris:

1:27
fire DD: Eno: following up on last question about McCullers, three teams have expressed an interest in him according to trading block and two have recently updated their trading blocks.

1:27
Eno Sarris: Well then I’d listen..

1:27
Johnny5Alive: Back to #lolmets. It was a fun month though

1:28
Eno Sarris: A walkoff being stolen at the wall is pretty lolmets yeah. But they’re in it! Let’s be happy for them!

1:28
klof: What should I be most worried about from the Cubs in a 5 game series? What’s the likely weakness? Arrieta implosion? Multi-slugger power outage? Middle relief?

1:28
Eno Sarris: Power outage.

1:28
klof: Kim anything more than a 4th OF going forward? Nice OBP but no power and platooned.

1:28
Eno Sarris: Good for the price.

1:28
Matt: GZA

1:28
Mr. Chop: Ghostface, gentlemen.

1:29
fresh basil: Have you ever ordered from a place so many times that you get embarrassed to order from them on occassion?

1:29
Eno Sarris: one place is trying to aggressively befriend me and I’m like no dude I shouldn’t be here so often but I do like your kim chi bulgogi burrito so just give that to me and don’t ask about my kids.

1:30
fresh basil: Jose Ramirez seems to do something every night. Being only 23 you see room for more improvement in his game or this a fluke or is this who he is?

1:30
Eno Sarris: He’s 24 and he’s not really baseball young in that he’s had 1200+ PA. I could see a season with more volume, but this might be peak power.

1:30
jon: The St Louis Cardinals have not scored a run off Aroldis Chapman since 2011.

1:31
808: Aloha home-boi ENO…I’m in the finals of a Fangraphs points league. Can’t be giving up homers. T. Anderson @ LAD, Nova v. WSH, or Lugo v. Philly.. which two do I take. 🙂

1:31
Eno Sarris: Last two.

1:31
Eno! Helloooooo: Re: War/Potential Sexual Partner – BoSox – Bogaerts is a knockout, Betts is adorable, Price is tall and handsome. Benintendi/Moncada are the boyish cute/rugged foundation for a boy band. JBJr is nothing to sneeze at. Pedroia’s sand bag body kind of screws it all up.

1:32
Eno Sarris: yes it’s true. Ben has those locks. But then there’s Clay to screw it all up.

1:32
Matt: If Gary Sanchez had to make a head first slide into a base, and thus messy’d up his uniform, would that make him a….dirty Sanchez?

1:32
Guest: Why do people want to capitalize stuff in press releases like Business Intelligence? I don’t think that’s a thing that needs to be capitalized. Writers, help me!

1:32
Eno Sarris: Blame Hunter S Thompson.

1:33
EvanC: I really enjoy that you like rap music. I think it’s one of if not THE most underrated art forms around. I really wish I could convince more friends to engage it.

1:34
Eno Sarris: Atmosphere was fun on Tuesday night.

1:34
Beatrice: Follow-Up to my prototype starter question. I was more talking from a scouting standpoint? Like, is Dan Straily really a prototype #4? Do you look at a prospect and say “this kid could be a solid #4, he reminds me of Dan Straily” I know its a weird question but if you just look at WAR, it’s likely going to capture guys having career years who might not actually be what you look for in those roles.

1:36
Eno Sarris: Good point. Hammel might be a better ‘mid rotation starter’ because he has a really good slider and curve but can’t stay healthy and no changeup. I’d almost do it by flaws. A number one you see no flaws really, a two has one flaw, a three has two or three, a four is a guy you think things have to work out well in order to be in the league, and a five is just a longshot at all.

1:36
Johnny Bravo: Story in the NYT today about when we might see a woman in pro baseball. Assuming her fastball tops out at 70 mph or so, what kind of repertoire and role would she need to succeed at a high or MLB level?

1:37
Eno Sarris: LOOGY or Knuckler, but the problem is that velocity still matters for a knuckler, she’d need to be able to hit 80 with hit.

1:37
Fast Eddie: Are the Braves really going to bust their rebuild with a couple crappy FA signings? If you’re going to stink, go all the way.

1:37
Eno Sarris: I think they want to build for year one/two in the new park.

1:37
fresh basil: Ghost

1:37
EvanC: my top 5: 1. Ghostface 2. Inspectah 3. GZA 4. Method Man 5 RZA

1:38
tedTHRILLiams: If I told you the Braves are second in wRC+ over the last month you would say…

1:38
Eno Sarris: yeah I saw that and I don’t understand

1:38
Matt: Why would you blame Hunter S Thompson when it’s clear that everything is Canada’s fault?

1:38
WTF Guy: Yeah, that rap music just can’t find an audience.

1:38
Eno Sarris: Not always in baseball circles though.

1:38
fresh basil: Came across Blu’s Below the Heavens in my collec

1:39
Eno Sarris: Blu & Exile? Love them.

1:39
Eno Sarris:

1:40
Hi Erix: HOPS artice? Where can a homie find!?

1:40
RotoLando: I don’t see any reason a woman couldn’t play at catcher. You give them a lot of slack with the bat if they have a great glove.

1:40
Johnny Bravo: Also, the correct answer is clearly Ghostface

1:40
JJFad: I’m going to a conference in San Francisco. What beer things should I do when I’m there (no car)!?!?

1:41
Eno Sarris: You’ll be close to Cellarmaker and City Beer Store in SOMA, they a block away from each other and if that’s all you do, you’re fine. Toronado’s in Haigh is great, $10 uber away.

1:41
Imperial Stout: Why couldn’t a woman hit 90mph on a FB if she’s tall? Pitcher don’t get velocity from being beefed.

1:41
Eno Sarris: I’m not sure they get it from being tall either, and actually I do think lifting matters.

1:42
Dr Angry: FWIW,Manaea is 33 innings over his prior high in 2014 (gotta count MILB stats).

1:42
Eno Sarris: Ah right I didn’t add those in. That doesn’t bother me, doesn’t seem to be very different than the rest of baseball.

1:42
Imperial Stout: Chris sale lifts?

1:43
Eno Sarris: I’m sure he does. There is such a thing as wiry strong.

1:43
Eno Sarris: I mean, turn into Ron Gant, and you’re all stiff. But they’re all working out.

1:43
tommylasagna: if you pick a booger at a friend’s house, where do you put it?

1:43
Eno Sarris: Socks

1:44
Eno Sarris: Okay, with that gem I think it’s time to get to work. Thanks for hanging out!





With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

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The Ghost of Johnny Dickshotmember
7 years ago

Can’t get into the chat here at work but have a thought on AL MVP. Is it really that crazy to think the writers will give it to Big Papi? He’s having a huge year, Red Sox running away with the East, most importantly…it’s his last year swan song and everybody loves him. Is this really that far-fetched?

tedTHRILLiamsmember
7 years ago

Well, yes, because he’s a DH and he’s 4th in position player WAR on the team