Eric Longenhagen Chat: 2/28/20

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, everyone. Let me tweet a chat link and we’ll get started.

Eric A Longenhagen: Alrighty then

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s do some links…

Eric A Longenhagen: I was on the inaugural Keith Law Show over on The Athletic which they somehow cut down to 40 minutes. https://theathletic.com/podcast/168-the-keith-law-show/

Eric A Longenhagen: I did FanGraphs audio https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-a-dispatch-from-prospect-w…

Eric A Longenhagen: There are two new lists which can be accessed via the prospects homepage https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects

Eric A Longenhagen: And I had some general notes go up midweek https://blogs.fangraphs.com/some-cactus-league-and-mlb-draft-scouting-…

Reynolds: you mentioned that Heriberto was your favorite guy from back half of top 100. what makes him special to you/separates him from peers on the list?

Eric A Longenhagen: I just like watching him rake. It’s ‘favorite’ in the same way that butter pecan is my favorite, not that I like Heriberto more than others from an analysis standpoint. I’ve just never seen a player hit the ball so hard so consistently here in Arizona in my five years of living here.

J: Is your apprehension about Aaron Bracho more defense-based or projectability/frame based? It seems like his bat is very, very good

Eric A Longenhagen: Both. I like the bat, too, but he’s LF for me and no body projection.

Xavier: Eric, how would you rank Andy Pages against recent draftees? Seems to me he’s a first-round talent after that pretty sweet 2019 statline.

Eric A Longenhagen: You’ve gotta scrutinize Pioneer League stats. Just toss them out, they’re way inflated. He’s still in the 40+/45 area. It’s a power-based corner profile.

Peter: Between Alcantara, Duran, and Vargas, who do you think has best chance to be an MLB regular? Duran is oldest/closer, but not sure if that’s all there is to it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Vargas’ defensive ability arguably gives him the highest floor of that group. Duran is doing a high wire act at 2B but if he stays there he has rare power for that position.

Hermie: Hey, Eric. Did Luis Escobar graduate off the Pirates list, or did he drop below FV35? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: I just cut him. He was outrighted off the roster, not a great sign

Danny K.: The board is one of my favorite features on any sports outlet. Noticed that “risk” is no longer included for the 2020 prospects. Will this be added later on or are you moving away from that?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley and I were considering updating the Variance (‘risk’ fits better on the page but really it’s ‘variance’) column to something more detailed and it never materialized, so I’m gonna bring back straight up variance.

Bearry: I remember reading that Michael Plassmeyer had some good spin rates on his FB/Curve that helped him succeed. Do you know what his trackman reports are saying and if there’s anything to like there?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have him 88-91 with 2300rpm, which is slightly above the average fastball spin rate but probably plus at that velo (velo and spin are correlated)

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Tell me a little about Miguel Yajure. Is he the Yankees best pitching prospect after Garcia?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yankees list early next week

greg: Will Akiyama and Tsutsugo be on prospect lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I wrote them up elsewhere so we have something and I’ll probably say where on the team lists they’d be, but my six-year window of analysis gets weird when the dudes are that old

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: After Paddack, Patino, and Munoz, the Padres don’t appear to have much in the way of pitching prospects. Am I wrong?

Eric A Longenhagen: They have a lot of sneaky pitchability guys, like A LOT, and some of them are going to grow into more velo than we expect and be something. They just have so many that it’s pretty likely one or two pan out.

John: What separates Canaan Smith (picks to click) from the Duran group of NYY in top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: the up-the-middle defensive fit

Zippy_TMS: I’m seeing some early hype about Reginald Preciado. Have you had a chance to take a look at him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him in the fall, he’s on the Picks to Click.

John: Hey thanks again for the cat, she’s doing awesome and we love her.

Eric A Longenhagen: Send me a pic!

PicktoClick: Christian Javier looks nasty thins Spring. Why’s he so hard to hit? Sustainable over a full season, or does the novelty wear off?

Eric A Longenhagen: Now *that* dude has elite spin. 2500ish rpm on the heater, it’s a well-designed 4-pitch mix out of the bullpen.

Jojanse Torres: Have you seen me live? How good am I going to be?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Slider-first approach, probably a middle relief fit, non-zero chance at later/high leverage innings but I think it’s unlikely.

sprenten: The comp for ONeil Cruz should be Corey Hart and not Aaron Judge.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, that’s a more apt body comp

Andy: How do you grade switch hitters with significantly different abilities on each side of the plate? Do you average the grades or use the higher of the two?

Eric A Longenhagen: I weigh lefty hit tool as about 70% of the grade, righty about 30%, which mirrors the pitching usage in MLB

Ryan: Are we going to see a lot more teams pitch around Torkelson intentionally this spring?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, unless Hauver starts making people pay

Brendon: Jays list coming soon?

Eric A Longenhagen: Late next week

Cito’s Mustache: Did you read Zach Eflin’s comments about the seams on the ball feeling differently/more noticeable this spring? Have you heard anything else to that effect early on in camps?

Eric A Longenhagen: I had not read that but now will dig for it

Carlos: You comped draft prospect Blaze Jordan to Jhonkensy Noel. Is there a compliment for Noel in this or just highlighting being bearish on Jordan?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s me trying to properly put Blaze in a proper context. His skillset isn’t bad, but it is common.

Carlos: Is PR draft prospect CF M. Zabala comparable to former Indians pick Johnathan Rodriguez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not really. Rodriguez was lanky, Zabala is built like a DI running back.

Kyler: What are the biggest things that stand out to you when you watch MLB players compared to minor leaguers and college guys? Do you ever have “oh wow” moments when you go to an MLB game after a few weeks of watching prospects? Or are the differences more subtle? Thanks for the great content!

Eric A Longenhagen: Everyone in MLB is incredible and it makes me feel like watching stout JUCO kids throw 92 is kinda frivolous.

LioneeR: For these questions, I’m curious how often you have to look up the names/refresh yourself. The amount of names you are able to speak knowledgely about is pretty amazing.

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a finite amount of brain space and do find myself needing to spell check names more often now than I used to, especially for new draft prospects. I forget where my keys and wallet are a lot, and I forget to pay bills, but I can tell you a lot about Helcris Olivarez off the top of my head.

TacoBrett: Please rank: Hancock, Rocker, Leiter

Eric A Longenhagen: Leiter Hancock Rocker, I have 50s on them all at the moment

Dave: Who are the buzziest players on the backfields this spring?

Eric A Longenhagen: Minor leaguer report dates are staggered so a lot of guys aren’t even in yet or are just arriving. Lotta live BP and that’s it right now.

Jeff: Ryan Jensen from last year or Max Meyer this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Great question. Jensen threw many more strikes than Meyer but I think Meyer’s slider is better than Jensen’s was. Both plus athletes. I think I’d take Jensen but it’s close.

Appa Yip Yip: Remember to get some sleep.

Eric A Longenhagen: I added like 4 dudes to the honorable mention section of the Pirates list at 2am, I’m doing fine.

Jonathan: How might public-facing prospect lists from major outlets change in the next decade, either via philosophical shifts or technological ones?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is a great question that deserves at least 15 minutes of uninterrupted thought. I have some ideas that I can’t dump on you now because I don’t want to tip my hand. I think we’ll eventually have something resembling a trade machine with asset values driving it. I know BA began sourcing some TM data and put exit velos on their 100 so I expect we’ll continue to see more of that and I won’t be the only one doing it across the minors anymore. This is probably more of a podcast diatribe question.

Kurupt FM: I realize you’re not the ZiPS guy but after seeing the projection for Alejandro Kirk can you explain why he projects to be better than his prospect rating?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s on the catch/can’t catch line. I body comp’d him to Chris Farley last year. ZiPS doesn’t know what any of the prospects look like, physically.

Matt: Austin Martin’s hitting #s over the last year+ are kind of absurd for someone who could play 2B or CF. Why isn’t he more of a sure fire #1 lock the way someone like Rutschman was a year ago? Is Torkelson that good? Or do you think perhaps the talk of where Martin plays defense has kind of distracted from how good he is at the plate?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tork is that good. Martin doesn’t have gigantic raw, his swing just has beautiful lift that lends confidence to him hitting for power anyway (the approach helps too) and he’s more of a passable defender at 2B/SS/3B than a great one, the CF projection is all an assumption.

Dave: Where are you at in the sequencing of the team lists? Which pod are you working on now and which one is next?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tampa-area now. So NYY, TOR, TBR are left from that one. Then I’m done with Florida entirely. Next AZ cluster is the Northwest Valley (SDP, KCR, SEA, TEX).

Vslyke: Apologies for asking here and in the article, but are you totally out on Pablo Reyes following a bad 2019 and his recent PED suspension?

Eric A Longenhagen: A huge bummer. I loved him as a 2B/3B/OF super utility type, now I don’t know what to think.

Dave: Have you heard anything about MLB/MiLB/NCAA contingencies regarding coronavirus?

Eric A Longenhagen: No but I guess I need to start asking

El Zilcho: I saw another prospect writer on Twitter recently say that a high-level scout opined the top 10 would be almost exclusively college guys, predominantly pitchers. Is that your impression as well?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but as we’ve seen with Ginn and Crochet, that group tends to experience entropy throughout the spring.

Guest: How often do you think youre gonna get over to FLA now that Kiley isnt around?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gah, much more than I used to but no idea how much. Get to see more of my Uncle Greg and ex in-laws though, so that’s cool.

Mucho Maas: Do you think where exit velo is available it could/should replace batting practice homers as the measure of raw power since it basically says “here’s how hard this guy can hit the damn ball”?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think max exit velo might be a better proxy than the average exit velo since the latter has some hit tool impacting it. I might do a year where I grade BP raw vs max exit velos and see if/where there’s a gap

Hinkie: Any thoughts on new Phillies Amateur Scouting Director Brian Barber and have you seen him (or any other Phillies scouts) out at any college or HS games?

Eric A Longenhagen: I can’t yet recognize that guy without his hat on, so no not yet.

Guest: What are the logistics of bringing the high-speed camera? Are there ever any problems with setting it up because the venue doesn’t want you filming?

Eric A Longenhagen: The four-inch lens is within MLB fans specifications. I have had some security folks turn me away (Goodyear) without a media pass on days I just buy a ticket behind home plate but it’s pretty rare. The model I use is pretty portable and I’ve gotten good at avoiding scoutspreading in the seats

Rob: Is Hudson Head a potential big riser?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, great feel for contact, can really run, medium frame but hits balls hard. More of a table-setting sort for me but I like him.

James: What are your thoughts on Luis Rodriguez of Dodgers? I haven’t found an FG writeup yet but his profile is interesting for a 17 year old. Where would you rank relative to other 2019 J2 guys?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was on the 2019 J2 Board https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-international/summa…

Eric A Longenhagen: He’ll be the same FV on the Dodgers list

Chad: Prospects in different sports take different times to gestate. Every year a couple 19-year-olds make an impact in the NBA, whereas that’s pretty much unheard of in baseball. Even less so in the NFL. Any idea what the differences are here?

Eric A Longenhagen: The structural differences (1 year of NCAA ball for the NBA, three years of college for NFL, sign at 16 or 17 in MLB but there’s a big minor league) drive most of it. I’m not sure how Wander Franco would’ve done if there were no minors and he was just put in MLB last year.

Kingman’s Performance: If Michael Busch hadnt got hurt and continued hitting as he had started would he have been a 50?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not but I do like him and am intrigued by the idea of him playing 2B, though the little bit I saw in AFL did not look great

Kingman’s Performance: As to the previous question about Prospect lists…. back in the 90’s when BA was basically the only one doing them…..Now I can view 20 reasonably accurate ones on the internet. How much improved do you feel the eval process has gotten.

Eric A Longenhagen: I know I feel a difference in the quality of my own work in not just the 12 years I’ve been in baseball but in the 3-ish I’ve been at FG. I can’t speak to BA’s evolution during that time but I bet they’ve gotten better, too. The info we have access to now versus 2000 is part of it, ease of communication with sources is part of it, air travel is part of it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’ve gotta split. Thank you guys for coming again this week. Talk to you next Friday.